NCAAF Trends and Indexes - Bowl Season (12/19 - 1/7)

[Udog]

NCAAF
Write-Up


Update

Thursday, December 31

Insight Bowl
Tempe
Two 6-6 teams from midwest playing in Arizona on the NFL Network; Minnesota lost this bowl 42-21 to Kansas LY, this is third trip here in last four years. Gophers are 2-4 in last six games, are 2-3 on road, 2-4 vs spread as a favorite- they're 2-4 on grass the last three years, and didn't score a TD in last two regular season games, one of which was against a I-AA team, South Dakota State. Gophers start 10 seniors, nine of them on defense; they're 2-7 overall in bowl games.

Iowa State is 6-6 under 1st-year coach Rhoads after going 5-19 last two seasons under current Auburn coach Chizik; Cyclones lost three of last four games, are 1-5 vs bowl teams this season. State is 0-3 as single digit underdog this year (3-0 as double digit dog); they run ball for 177 yards a game, 4th-best in Big 12. Cyclones have 30 takeaways, eight of which came in 9-7 upset win at Nebraska (ISU's 1st win in Lincoln since '77).

Big 11 teams are 16-29 in last 45 bowls, 7-16 last 3+ years; they're 6-17 vs spread in last 23 bowls when favored. Big 12 teams won seven of last eight Insight Bowls- underdogs are 6-3 vs spread in this game last nine tears, with favorite winning last five SU. Big 11 teams lost three straight in this bowl, by 3-16-21 points. Average total in last six Insight Bowls is 79.2. Both teams have 10 senior starters and a junior quarterback.


Chick-fil-A
Atlanta
Virginia Tech won its last four games, allowing just 8.8 ppg; they've won last three games, but in their three losses, they've lost time of possession by 13+ minutes each game. Beamer is 7-9 in bowl games; Hokies need a win to have its eighth 10-win season in last nine years. Team with most rushing yards is 12-0 SU in Tech games this season. Hokies lost 34-24 in this building to Alabama in season opener. Tech is 1-3 in this bowl.

Tennessee is in first-year under Kiffin, who is coaching first bowl; Vols won four of last five games, have senior QB, but are down to #3 MLB, as injuries take their toll. Tennessee didn't play in bowl LY, are located 215 miles from Knoxville, so both sides figure to have good support in seats. Vols lost special teams coach to Florida State, which could be bad news against Hokie squad that is famous for blocking punts, kicks. WR coach also left Knoxville; Kiffin is coaching them this week.

ACC teams lost four in row, nine of last 12 Peach Bowls; they're 1-7 in last eight bowls against SEC opponents. SEC teams are 9-3 in last dozen Peach Bowls. Underdogs covered this game five of last six years; average total in this game the last 10 years is just 38.5. Vols have 11 former or current walk-ons playing, but four seniors start on OL.Tennessee is 4-5 vs bowl teams this season; Virginia Tech is 4-3.

[Udog]

NCAAF


Friday, January 1

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What bettors need to know
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Friday, January 1

Outback Bowl

Northwestern Wildcats vs. Auburn Tigers (-8, 55)

You want offensive fireworks? The Outback Bowl may provide more of them than any other January bowl game.

Both Northwestern (8-4) and Auburn (7-5) feature productive spread offense attacks and defenses that have struggled mightily against the pass at times.

Line movement

The opening line of 8 went down to 7 on most boards, but as of Wednesday was back up to 8 and even 9 on one Las Vegas board. The total of 54.5 has remained unchanged.

Weather forecast

Fan grogginess from a memorable New Year’s Eve in Tampa will play more of a role than weather. Friday’s forecast for the 11 a.m. (ET) start calls for partly cloudy skies with highs in the low 60s.

Auburn’s uber-balance

Northwestern is going to have a tough time stopping Auburn’s offense. The Tigers scored 30 or more points in seven of their 12 games this year. And in terms of production, no team is as balanced as Auburn, which is averaging 213.8 yards rushing and 218.5 yards passing per game.

With its own spread, Chris Todd (21 TDs, 6 INTs) has been a steady signal-caller, and running back Ben Tate, playing in the shadow of Alabama’s Mark Ingram, rushed for a relatively quiet 1,254 yards and eight touchdowns.

Northwestern has been strong against the run, allowing only 123.5 yards per game in the physical Big Ten. That includes holding a powerful Wisconsin rushing attack to just 99 yards in a 33-31 win in the Wildcats’ season finale.

In Auburn’s SEC losses, the Tigers struggled to generate a rushing attack that it needs to set up the pass.

Using pass to set up the run

Northwestern quarterback Mike Kafka mastered the quick-hitting spread offense in his first full season at the helm, leading the Big Ten in completions (193), attempts (297) and percentage (65 percent) and the fewest interceptions (seven).

He and his receivers will face a stern test against an Auburn defense that allowed only 191.8 yards through the air per game. But the Tigers’ secondary has been susceptible to high-scoring attacks.

Northwestern hasn’t generated a consistent running game (119.9 ypg), which may allow Auburn to put more resources into stopping the pass.

Kafka will have to avoid too many meetings with Tigers senior defensive end Antonio Coleman, who led the SEC with 15.5 tackles for loss and nine sacks.

Close calls

Three of Auburn’s five losses came by seven points or less, including a 31-24 loss at Georgia and 26-21 defeat to Alabama to end the regular season. Meanwhile, of Northwestern’s eight victories, six came by seven points or fewer.

Finally getting healthy

One thing about the long break between regular season and bowl games – teams have the opportunity to get healthy.

Because of big injury concerns early on, Northwestern’s defense is significantly better now than at the start of the season. In fact, the Outback Bowl will present the first time the Wildcats will field the defensive lineup they expected to going into the season.

Defensive end Corey Wootton, an All-Big Ten pick last year, had four sacks and six tackles for loss in the final five games after having zero in each of the first seven after battling injuries. All-conference safety Brad Phillips led the team in tackles despite coming into the season hobbled after off-season surgery. And All-conference corner Sherrick McManis and fifth-year safety Brendan Smith are finally healthy and ready to go.

Other notes

Auburn has won six of its last eight bowl games. Despite its recent success in the program, Northwestern hasn’t won a bowl game since the 1949 Rose Bowl.

Auburn finished last in the SEC in points allowed (26.9 ppg), but has the week-in, week-out grind of the SEC prepared the Tigers for anything that can come its way on New Year’s Day?

When asked which Big Ten defense reminded him of Auburn’s, Kafka responded “a lot like Michigan State’s.”

Northwestern lost at Michigan State 24-14 on Oct. 17.

Other trends

The under is 7-0 in Auburn’s last seven bowl games.

Northwestern is 8-1 ATS as an underdog this season.

Auburn is 0-4 ATS in its last four games as favorite.



Gator Bowl

Florida State Seminoles vs. West Virginia Mountaineers (-2.5, 60)

The Gator Bowl gets the third pick among bowls with ACC tie-ins, and Florida State, needless to say, is not the No. 3 team in the conference. When it was announced that Bobby Bowden would not return next season, however, bowl executives wanted to make sure Bowden’s last game came in a prestigious Florida game.

Florida State (6-6, 3-9 ATS) just barely made itself eligible for postseason play by squeaking out six victories. They won two straight over Wake Forest and Maryland to close out ACC play in style before getting drubbed by Florida 37-10.

West Virginia (9-3, 5-6 ATS) saw its Big East title hopes come to end with a narrow 24-21 loss to Cincinnati, but the Mountaineers bounced back with wins over Pittsburgh and Rutgers.

Line movements

West Virginia opened as a 3-point favorite at most betting sites, but the line has moved down to 2.5. The total opened at 60 and has rarely wavered outside of 60 and 61.

Infirmary report

Freshman quarterback E.J. Manuel will make his fourth straight start for the Seminoles in place of Christian Ponder, who suffered a shoulder injury in early November and is out for the season.

All-American guard Rodney Hudson said last Monday that he is approaching full health in his ongoing recovery from a sprained MCL. Hudson is listed as probable on FSU’s injury report.

The Mountaineers will be without strong safety Nate Sowers and defensive tackle Scooter Berry, both due to academic ineligibility. Sowers started 11 of 12 games while Berry, arguably the team’s best lineman when he is on the field, missed four full games and parts of others as a result of a shoulder injury and mid-season suspension.

Bowden Bowl

This year’s Gator Bowl will be all about Bowden, and even West Virginia coach Bill Stewart knows it.

“I’ve told the guys this: there’s going to be 70,000 crimson, gold and white Florida State fans against about 15,000 of us,” Stewart told reporters. “Our men know they’re going to be up against it, and if they don’t, they’re going to know real quick as soon as we come through that tunnel.”

Of course, the situation is not an easy one for Florida State, either.

Linebacker Bert Reed said that a loss in Bowden’s final game “can’t happen.” Added Reed, “That pressure that we all have to do well, it's good pressure.”

“I think guys really sense that this is important; that this is a must win for us,” Ponder concluded.

Devine intervention

West Virginia is second in the Big East in rushing, averaging 183.8 yards per game on the ground. Junior running back Noel Devine is racking up 108.1 yards per contest, also second in the conference.

The Seminoles, who allow more than 200 rushing yards per outing, are last in the ACC in both total defense and rushing defense. They faced two of the ACC’s top three rushing offenses in Clemson and Georgia Tech, surrendering 241 rushing yards to the Tigers and 401 to the Yellow Jackets.

Devine, who is fifth on West Virginia’s all-time rushing list with 3,213 yards, could end his career at No. 2 in school history if he returns for his senior season. “I just keep playing and playing and playing,” Devine said of having to answer NFL-related questions. “Right now my mind is just focusing on coming back and winning a national championship.”

Trending topics

The Seminoles are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five bowl games. However, they are 1-5 ATS in their last six games against teams with winning records and 1-4 ATS in their last five overall.

The Mountaineers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven bowl games and 1-4 ATS in their last five games as a favorite. They are also 3-11 ATS in their last 14 contests against ACC opponents.

Florida State (8-4 O/U) has been a relatively strong over/under play this season, while West Virginia (6-5 O/U) has not been a strong play.

The over is 6-2 in the Seminoles’ last eight games overall and 5-0 in their last five bowl games. The over is also 5-0 in the Mountaineers’ last five bowl games and 5-1 in their last six non-conference games.



Capital One Bowl

LSU Tigers vs. Penn State Nittany Lions (-2.5, 44)

It was New Year's Day, 1974, the first and only time national powers Penn State and LSU met on the football field. Joe Paterno coached the Nittany Lions to a 16-9 victory over the Tigers and coach Charlie McClendon in the Orange Bowl that day.

Thirty-six years later, JoePa still prowls the sidelines for Penn State while LSU has gone through eight different head coaches since that game. Another poor performance by the Bayou Bengals in this one and they could be looking for No. 9.

Just two years removed from winning the national championship, LSU coach Les Miles' seat may not be hot but it isn't as cozy as one might imagine. The Tigers' three losses this season (to Alabama, Florida and Ole Miss) may seem justifiable, but 9-3 doesn't cut it in Cajun Country.

A win in the Capital One Bowl would give Miles 10 wins and a sigh of relief during the offseason. A loss to 10-2 Penn State would add fuel to the fire of angry fans who say Miles rode Nick Saban's coattails to the national title but can't get it done on his own.

JoePa should be thankful he's in Happy Valley and not Baton Rouge, otherwise he might be a retired insurance salesman rather than the winningest coach in FBS history. Don't expect this to be Paterno's swansong. It will take the Pennsylvania National Guard to get him off the sidelines.

Line movement

The line opened at Penn State -2.5 and quickly jumped to -3, where it has held steady ever since on most books.

Penn State is 6-6 ATS this season while LSU is 5-7, just a half-point from .500 after a 33-30 overtime win over Arkansas in the season finale.

The total remains at 44 with both teams slightly favoring the under this season (Penn State 5-7, LSU 4-8). Both boast strong defenses, with the Nittany Lions giving up an average of 11.8 points per game to the Tigers' 16.

Injury report

LSU is running on empty after losing three running backs this season - Charles Scott, Keiland Williams and Richard Murphy. There's a slight chance the senior Scott can return in time, but seven weeks isn't much time for a collarbone to fully heal, especially for a power runner against a hard-hitting defense.

Penn State also will be without a few key players, including running back Brandon Beachum, who injured his knee against Ohio State. Defensive tackle Brandon Ware and linebacker Michael Mauti haven't played since early in the season, so the Nittany Lions' defense has had time to adjust.

Weather or not

The forecast calls for temperatures in the upper 60s at kickoff with a 40 percent chance of rain.

Air Jordan?

LSU quarterback Jordan Jefferson has failed to live up of to the expectations of predecessor JaMarcus Russell (then again, so has JaMarcus Russell) and the Tigers' offense has struggled as a result. In fact, Penn State holds the edge in virtually every offensive category.

But the talented sophomore may be on the verge of putting it together, just not with the consistency of Penn State senior Daryll Clark, who has thrown for more yards (2,787 to 1,964), touchdowns (23 to 16) and interceptions (10 to 6) and has more experience.

Add that to the fact that LSU is without its top two rushers and Penn State appears to have a real advantage. However, LSU's defense has the speed and size to matchup with the running back Evan Royster and an excellent secondary to lock down WRs Derek Moye and Graham Zug.

Bowling leagues

OK, time for some more of the great Big Ten vs. SEC debate. But if you look at how the two leagues have fared in bowl games, when the opponent is guaranteed to be at least average, there's really no argument.

Over the past three seasons, the SEC is 19-7 SU in bowl games while the Big Ten is 6-16. Those numbers include the SEC beating the Big Ten head-to-head in the BCS national championship game, with Florida blowing out Ohio State in 2006 and LSU whacking the Buckeyes in 2007.

The Nittany Lions may be the exception to the Big Ten (tendency to fold) rule. They are 1-1 against the SEC in bowls this decade, including a 13-9 loss to Auburn in their only Capital One Bowl appearance in 2002. LSU is 2-1 in that same span, including a 30-25 loss to Iowa in the 2004 Cap-One Bowl.

Coach 'em up

One of the biggest factors in handicapping the postseason is a coach's ability to properly prepare his team for a bowl game. With six weeks between games and plenty of holiday distractions, there's an art to getting a team to peak in time for the new year.

Paterno certainly knows the drill, with a 23-11-1 SU record in bowls. But that number has flat-lined in recent years, going 3-2 in this decade compared to 7-3 in the previous one.

Les Miles may be the hottest bowl coach in the nation if you only consider recent history. The Michigan grad and former Wolverines assistant is 4-0 SU and ATS in bowls at LSU with his Tigers winning by an average score of 40-11 over Miami, Notre Dame, Ohio State and Georgia Tech.

What's my motivation?

Penn State was in line to represent the Big Ten in the Rose Bowl, the Midwest's version of Valhalla, until falling to Ohio State 24-7. Instead the Buckeyes are Rose Bowl bound and Iowa, which beat the Lions 21-10, plays Georgia Tech in the Orange Bowl. Those scores don't bode well for Penn State when it comes to big gamesmanship.

But LSU is in the same boat, with a 13-3 loss to Florida and 24-15 defeat to Alabama ending its hopes of an SEC title and a late 25-23 wake-up call from Ole Miss ending its BCS bowl chances. The issue of who wants it more is a matter of pride more so than reward.



Rose Bowl

Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Oregon Ducks (-4, 50.5)

It wasn’t that long ago when everyone, including the Big Ten, was pissing on the Pac-10.

Now, the West Coasters are clearly the more talented conference.

That’s certainly the perception heading into Friday’s Rose Bowl matchup between speedy Oregon with its new-age uniforms and old-fashioned Ohio State with its sweater vest.

But is that perception reality? Are the Buckeyes, who are 9-3 ATS, really out-classed against the Ducks (7-5 ATS)?

The spread

The Ducks opened up as 3.5-point favorites and had been bet up to 4 by the beginning of the week. It wouldn’t be shocking to see it climb higher by Friday’s 4:30 p.m. (ET) kickoff. You have to look pretty hard to find much betting support for the Buckeyes out there.

The total

It opened at 50.5 and has stayed put at just over seven touchdowns.

Only North Carolina State produced more overs than Oregon, which went 9-3 over/under with an average total of 55.

The explosive Ducks average 37.7 points per game and surrender 23.6 ppg. They averaged 32 points against the three best statistical defenses they faced this season (Arizona, Arizona State and Boise State).

In contrast, Ohio State, with its dominating defense and lackluster offense, went 3-8-1 over/under, with an average total of 46.

Ohio State averaged 29.3 ppg and allowed an average of just 12.2 ppg.

The Buckeyes surrendered more than 18 points only three times this season and posted three shutouts, but they faced only one team ranked in the Top 40 in total offense all season.

The quarterbacks

Ohio State’s Terrelle Pryor: For the most heavily recruited player in the nation, the Buckeyes’ sophomore quarterback sure hasn’t been able to handle the spotlight. Head coach Jim Tressel once again is trying to shield Pryor from the media. No other quarterback gets treated more with kid gloves than Pryor, which makes you question his mental fortitude.

You also have to question his arm, which, to be blunt, is inaccurate and weak. He’s thrown for more than 200 yards only three times all season and has a 16-to-10 TD-INT ratio.

Of course, Pryor is a big-time weapon on the ground, capable of making Vince Young-like plays with his legs. Oregon would prefer to keep him in the pocket, where he’s not much of a threat.

The Buckeyes rank 106th in passing offense.

Oregon’s Jeremiah Masoli: Much like Pryor, Masoli’s more of a force on the ground. He runs the read option as well as anyone and is especially effective in short-yardage situations.

No one is going to mistake Masoli for Tom Brady, or even Joey Harrington, in terms of being a polished passer, but he is significantly more dangerous than Pryor in the passing game.

He’s thrown for more than 200 yards five times, with a 15-to-5 TD-INT ratio.

Key notes

Oregon handled Purdue and USC with relative ease while Ohio State lost to both.
The Buckeyes own the nation’s fifth-best defense and haven’t allowed a 100-yard rusher all season. Oregon’s LeMichael James has gone over the 100-yard mark in seven straight games, leading the Ducks’ sixth-ranked rushing offense.
Oregon kicker Morgan Flint is 15 of 17 on field goals. OSU’s Aaron Pettrey is 13 of 19.
The Buckeyes are 22-5 ATS in their last 27 games on grass.
This is Chip Kelly’s first bowl game as a head coach. Tressel is coaching in his eighth, going 5-3 ATS in those bowls.
Injuries, suspensions

Ohio State: Tressel suspended senior wide receivers Duron Carter and Ray Small and defensive lineman Rob Rose. Small is the biggest lost, because he’s also the Buckeyes’ top punt returner. But these aren’t game-changing losses.

Oregon: The Ducks have no impactful injuries.



Sugar Bowl

Cincinnati Bearcats vs. Florida Gators (-13, 57)

With two teams perhaps experiencing a lack of motivation and both with coaching-related concerns, this year’s Sugar Bowl is likely the most curious and confusing game of the postseason - and possibly the most difficult bowl game for bettors to determine.

Line movement

The line opened with Florida as a 10-point favorite but immediately jumped to -12 when it was announced Bearcats head coach Brian Kelly had taken the Notre Dame job. The line has gone up even further since the announcement. As the line has moved up, so has the total, increasing a point and a half since it opened at 55.5.

Significant injuries/suspensions

Florida wide receiver/returner Brandon James, who leads the Gators in all-purpose yardage, will miss the Sugar Bowl after having surgery on his right foot. James broke his foot against Alabama in the SEC title game.

After missing the SEC Championship Game due to a suspension, Florida’s Carlos Dunlap has been upgraded to probable. The junior defensive end was defensive MVP of last year’s BCS title game and a 2009 All-SEC selection.

Coaching carousel

Kelly’s abrupt departure from Cincinnati to Notre Dame was announced only moments prior to the Bearcats’ annual team banquet. Many players voiced their concern and anger over the coach’s abandonment.

Jeff Quinn, Cincinnati’s offensive coordinator, was passed over for the Bearcats’ head-coaching position for Central Michigan’s Butch Jones. Quinn was hired as Buffalo’s head coach less than two weeks ago but will coach the Bearcats in the Sugar Bowl.

At Florida, acclaimed defensive coordinator Charlie Strong accepted the head position at Louisville; he will still coach the Gator defense in the bowl. On Christmas Day, apparently for health reasons, head coach Urban Meyer decided he’d quit coaching following the Sugar Bowl. A couple days later, Meyer decided he would instead take a leave of absence and believes he’ll be back for the 2010 season.

Whether it’s damaged psyches or a whirlwind of coaching drama, the turmoil surrounding the Sugar Bowl should definitely take its toll on some players.

Bearcat blemish

Cincinnati entered the season returning just one starter from last season’s Orange Bowl squad. Nevertheless, through the first two months of the season, the Bearcats had the ninth-best scoring defense and 24th-ranked total defense in the nation.

In its final four games, however, Cincinnati’s defense was riddled by Connecticut, West Virginia, Illinois and Pittsburgh. The quartet averaged nearly 37 points and more than 424 yards per game, including 191 rushing yards and 11 total rushing touchdowns.

Florida’s strength is its running attack. Its 5.62 yards-per-carry average is third best in the FBS.

Last hurrah

In almost every instance, Florida quarterback Tim Tebow has guided the Gators to victory after victory in each big game. The recent loss to Alabama is the rare exception.

Tebow is playing his final game of a brilliant collegiate career—one of the best in college football history. Even on simply will alone, the senior is capable of leading Florida to a win.

I expect Tebow is looking for vengeance against the Bearcats. It is inconceivable to see him lose back-to-back games.

“We've got to finish strong,” said Tebow. "It's the last game I'm going to play as a Gator. Obviously, I want to win it very badly."

Key matchup

Cincinnati’s Mardy Gilyard might be the most dynamic player in college football. He has caught 80 passes for 1,150 yards, ranks second in the nation in all-purpose yardage, and has scored 15 touchdowns four different ways: 11 receiving, two on kick returns, one punt return and one rushing.

All-American Joe Haden, a Thorpe Award finalist and considered maybe the best cornerback to ever play at Florida, will likely be assigned to cover Gilyard most, if not all, the time.

Even if Haden can contain Gilyard, the senior receiver and Florida native averages nearly 13 yards per punt return and 32 yards per kickoff.

“I've been dreaming about this game [against Florida] for like 12 years now. I'm ready,'' Gilyard said.

Trends

Since 2005, Florida is 11-3 straight up and 13-1 ATS against AP Top-10 opponents. The Gators’ lone ATS loss came in their last game against No. 2 Alabama.

Cincinnati has won only three of seven bowl games this decade, worse, the Bearcats are 1-6 ATS in those contests.

The total has gone under in 12 of Cincinnati’s last 22 games and 10 of Florida’s last 14.


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[Udog]

NCAAF
Write-Up


If Armadillo adds any matchups, we'll post them.

Friday, January 1

Outback Bowl
Tampa
Northwestern is playing on January 1st for third time; they won three in row at end of regular season by total of 14 points to get here. Wildcats are 10-3 vs spread in last 13 games as underdog, with eight SU victories; they're 2-3 vs bowl teams this season. If you take away Iowa, which has played well in this bowl, Big 11 teams are just 3-7 in last ten Outback Bowls. QB Kafka is a 5th-year senior; they lost their bowl in OT LY. Northwestern last won a bowl game back in 1948; they lost last six.

Auburn won five of its last six bowls; they've got 7 senior starters with 11 juniors. This is Chizik's first bowl as head coach. Tigers are 2-3 vs bowl teams. SEC teams are 8-5 in their last 13 Outback Bowls, with the average total in last three, 36.3. Tigers don't have good special teams due to poor depth on squad. Auburn failed to cover its last four tries as the favorite. Tigers scored 30+ points in seven of their 12 games this year.

Big 11 underdogs are 7-2 vs spread out of conference this year, 4-1 on the road, but Big 11 teams are also 16-30 in their last 46 bowls, 7-17 in their last 24 bowls. SEC teams are 20-9 in their last 29 bowls, 1-2 this year, with favorite covering all three of those games. SEC favorites have covered 19 of 29 games this season; they're 7-2 vs spread as a fave away from home. Favorite is 8-5 vs the spread in the last 13 Outback Bowls.


Gator Bowl
Jacksonville
Bobby Bowden closes out his Hall of Fame career here, against school he coached before coming to FSU. 14 of 26 players on Seminoles' two-deep defensive/kicking depth chart are freshman/sophs, and it shows- they've given up 26+ points in 10 of 12 games. State 19-10-1 vs spread in bowls under Bowden, but is just 2-5 vs bowl teams this year. Noles are 3-2 as an underdog this year, with three SU wins. Many of Bowden's players from the past will be attending this game, many as in hundreds.

West Virginia coach Stewart played for Bowden 39 years ago, first year Bowden was in Morgantown; Stewart is 2-0 in bowls, WVa is 4-4 this year against bowl teams. Mountaineers are in this game for 4th time in last seven years. Favorites won last of last 13 Gator Bowls; underdogs covered last three. WVa is just 2-5 vs spread as favorite this year; their last three games were all decided by exactly three points. Big East faves are 9-8-1 against the spread in non-conference games this season.

Big East teams are 2-0 so far this bowl season, ACC clubs are 2-3, 0-1-1 as an underdog. Coaching chaos in this game; West Virginia's recruiting guru Holliday is the new coach at Marshall, which hurts Mountaineers. Fisher is already entrenched as the next Florida State coach; he has to bring in new defensive coaches, with DC Andrews retiring. Gator Bowl went out of its way bigtime to get FSU here. Game sold out in 2 hours.


Capitol One Bowl
Orlando
Penn State is 10-2; they scored 10-7 in losses to Iowa/Ohio State. Lions are 1-3 in Orlando, but JoePa is 21-10-1 vs spread in bowls, winning and covering six of last eight bowls vs SEC teams. PSU is 14-10 vs spread as favorite the last two seasons. Senior QB Clark leads offense that scored 31+ points in four of last five games. Penn State was 4-0 on road, with wins by 18-25-21-28 points. they covered six of last eight as a favorite.

Tigers went 4-3 in last seven games after 5-0 start; their last win away from Death Valley was Oct 3. LSU covered two of last eight games as an underdog; they play conservative on offense to protect QB Jefferson, as backup Lee is awful. Return man Holliday could be key for LSU, trying to exploit the weak Penn State special teams. Tiger defense allowed 24+ points in three of last four games, after holding six of first eight foes to 13 or less points. Their last two games were decided by 2-3 points.

Underdogs covered seven of last ten in this bowl, winning four of last five SU; total in this bowl has been 36 or less in three of last four years. Big 11 teams won four of last five here; SEC teams are 4-7 in last eleven, making this rare bowl where SEC teams don't dominate teams from the midwest. LSU is 4-0 in bowls under Miles but how can they be 11th in total yardage in 12-team SEC? LSU is 2-2 vs spread as a '09 underdog.

[Udog]

NCAAF
Dunkel - Fri. POD


Florida State vs. West Virginia
The Moutaineers look to take advantage of a Florida State team that is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games against teams with a winning record. West Virginia is the pick (-2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has Mountaineers favored by 5. Dunkel Pick: West Virginia (-2 1/2).

[Udog]

NCAAF


Saturday, January 2

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What bettors need to know
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Saturday, January 2

International Bowl

Northern Illinois Huskies vs. South Florida Bulls (-6.5, 50)

Northern Illinois and South Florida will be meeting for the third time in history and first time in seven years when they square off in the fourth annual International Bowl.

The Huskies (7-5, 6-6 ATS) are in the midst of a two-game losing streak after road setbacks against Ohio and Central Michigan.

The Bulls (7-5, 5-6 ATS), making a long trip north from Tampa to Toronto, are also riding a two-game losing streak courtesy of Miami and Connecticut. They have lost five of seven since starting the season 5-0.

Line movements

South Florida opened as a 6-point favorite at most betting sites and the Bulls have since been bumped to 6.5 and 7-point favorites at some shops. The total has held relatively steady in a one-point range between 49 and 50.

Infirmary report

Physical problems for Northern Illinois are few and far between heading into Saturday’s clash. Everyone has been cleared to play, including safety Mike Sobol (concussion), who is sixth on the team with 49 total tackles and tied for second with two forced fumbles.

South Florida is facing some issues on the offensive line, as juniors Jake Sims (concussion) and Zach Hermann (neck) are not expected to play. Leading tackler Kion Wilson, who missed the regular season finale against Connecticut with an ankle injury, has returned to practice and will start at linebacker.

Fundamental football

The Huskies clearly live by the well-known mantra that in order to win games, you have to run the ball, stop the run and take care of the football.

They boast the No. 1 rushing offense in the MAC, gaining 202.4 yards per contest. The Huskies are second in rushing defense among MAC teams, allowing just 119 yards per game and 3.7 yards per carry.

Northern Illinois should have an obvious game-plan against a South Florida defense that ranks first in the Big East against the pass (thanks mostly to a pass-rush led by Jason Pierre-Paul and George Selvie), but is giving up 139.6 rushing yards per game.

Furthermore, the Huskies have turned the ball over only 14 times, tied for first in the MAC. They have 22 takeaways, good for a plus-8 turnover margin that puts them second in their conference.

The Bulls do not run the football quite like Northern Illinois, but they are far more prolific on the ground than through the air. Running backs B.J. Daniels and Moise Plancher have combined for 1368 yards and 14 touchdowns.

Bowl buzz

Both coaches—Jerry Kill of Northern Illinois and South Florida’s Jim Leavitt—are excited to be heading north and crossing the border.

“We are so young, one of the youngest teams in the MAC,” Kill noted. “Our best years are ahead of us. We’re still getting better, and the bowl game is going to be a big help to us. You get the extra practice, the extra game. It’s a great experience, plus it’s an opportunity for our players to visit another country.”

For the Bulls, the International Bowl is the last bowl with Big East tie-ins (other than the BCS affiliation) in which they have never participated.

“Hopefully that one is next,” Leavitt said of a BCS berth. "I'm excited about Toronto. We've never been there. This is big stuff. We get to go and play indoors. I think it's pretty neat.”

Trending topics

Both the Huskies and the Bulls are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall.

Likewise, they have been disappointing against tough competition. Northern Illinois is 0-7 ATS in its last seven against teams with winning records, while South Florida 5-13 ATS in its last 18 against teams with winning records.

South Florida (7-4 O/U) has been a relatively strong over play this season, while Northern Illinois (6-6 O/U) has not.

The under is 5-1 in the Huskies’ last six non-conference games and 4-0 in the Bulls’ last four none-conference affairs. The over, however, is 6-2 in South Florida’s last eight games overall.



Papa Johns Bowl

Connecticut Huskies vs. South Carolina Gamecocks (-4.5, 51.5)

Pizza delivery never tasted so bad to college kids than the two teams involved in this lower-tier bowl. Both the Gamecocks and Huskies had their hearts set on filet mignon and possible BCS bowl berths until suffering a disappointing stretch of setbacks in the second half of the season.

South Carolina was 6-2 with key conference wins over then-No. 4 Ole Miss, Kentucky and Vanderbilt heading into the meat of its SEC schedule. But three consecutive double-digit losses (Tennessee, Arkansas and Florida) drastically altered their plans from fine dining to fast food.

For Connecticut, it was a tragedy off the field that damaged their spirits and bowl plans. After star cornerback Jaspar Howard was stabbed to death in a fight the night after a win over Louisville, the Huskies were 4-2 heading into a crucial conference stretch.

They lost to West Virginia, Rutgers and then Cincinnati by a combined total of 10 points and their aspirations of winning the Big East title were gone by the wayside.

But there is a happy ending for both teams. UConn rallied to win its final three games, including an upset victory at Notre Dame and a win over South Florida with a last-second field goal. Meanwhile, the Gamecocks snapped a losing streak against in-state rival Clemson to save some face.

That's not to say both teams are thrilled to be going to the Papa John's Bowl, but late-night pizza beats going to bed hungry even if it is just a booty call.

Line movement

South Carolina opened as a 7-point favorite with a total of 53 and both of those numbers dropped dramatically right out of the box.

There may have been some emotional sentiment behind the early money as the Huskies' rally around Howard was played up big-time in the media during their closing three-game win streak, but the betting public obviously has confidence in UConn.

The Gamecocks are currently a 4.5-point favorite with a total of 51.5.

Injury report

The Huskies lost starting quarterback Cody Endres for the season in the Rutgers game, but backup Zach Frazer has led them to three straight wins. Fraser doesn't have the arm of Endres and has thrown just as many interceptions as touchdowns (9). Other than Endres and Howard, the Huskies haven't lost any key players since the first half of the season.

South Carolina's injury report doesn't include any big names, only big guys. Three starting offensive linemen, guards Kevin Young (ankle) and Terrence Campbell (neck) and tackle Quinton Richardson (shoulder) are banged up heading into the game and only Young has a chance to play.

The Gamecocks also lost starting tackle Travian Robertson for the year earlier in the season.

Weather or not

The forecast calls for cloudy skies and temperatures in the mid-40s at kickoff. There is a 10 percent chance of rain.

Do what you do

Both teams bring productive, balanced offensive attacks into the game but have opposite preferences when given the choice.

For UConn's Randy Edsell, it's the ground game. He has a pair of running backs who have combined for more than 2,100 yards and Andre Dixon is just 12 yards shy of joining Jordan Todman to form the first 1,000-yard teammate tandem since Reggie Bush and LenDale White at Southern California.

They will need to set the table for Frazer, who has yet to find his rhythm in the passing game. Senior wideout Marcus Easley has 44 catches for 844 yards and six TDs.

On the other sideline, South Carolina coach Steve Spurrier still hasn't seen a pass play he doesn't like. Unfortunately for him, quarterback Steven Garcia has only recently developed into the kind of QB that Spurrier has always needed to unleash his Cock'n'Fire offense.

Garcia threw for more than 2,700 yards this season (second highest in the SEC) with 17 TDs and nine picks. He has found a new weapon in freshman wideout Alshon Jeffery, who has 43 catches for 735 yards and six TDs after emerging late in the year.

South Carolina finished dead last in the SEC in rushing with 1,860 yards, and many of those yards came from Garcia scrambling out of the pocket. The Gamecocks like to use the pass to set up the run.

Defensive differences

UConn's offense holds a slight edge over South Carolina, averaging almost 400 yards per game and ranking 47th nationally to the Gamecocks' No. 76 rating. But South Carolina more than makes up the 40-yard-per-game difference on the other side of the ball as the nation's No. 15 ranked defense.

The Gamecocks have some real playmakers on defense, led by senior linebacker Eric Norwood, who was just named to the AP All-American Team. Also watch out for safety Stephon Gilmore, who is a heavy hitter in run support and can go step-for-step with the speediest receiver on the field.

The Gamecocks are allowing a little more than 300 yards and 20 points per game. Fortunately for the Huskies, South Carolina is strongest against the pass, ranking 12th nationally, but only 46th against the run - UConn's preferred mode of transportation.

South Carolina's offense gets a similar edge in this matchup. UConn is ranked 94th nationally against the pass, possibly allowing Spurrier to fly the friendly skies. The Huskies are 48th nationally against the run while the Gamecocks finished dead last in the SEC in rushing yardage.

That means both offenses should be able to do what they do best against the defenses, but neither should have the balance to dominate the game.

Odds and trends

On paper, UConn looks like a bettor's dream after going 10-2 ATS on the season and seeing its past seven games go over the total. Too bad they all can't be so predictable.

That's certainly not the case for the Gamecocks, who went 5-7 ATS and 6-6 against the total, an ideal coin-toss team.

But those records really can be rendered meaningless in a bowl, when any momentum a team had coming in has been broken by a long layoff and the bookmakers and betting public have had time to sniff out the trends so that they are reflected in the line.

The best gage may be strength of schedule, where SEC teams almost always get the edge. South Carolina has covered spreads against the likes of Alabama, Florida, Clemson and Ole Miss while failing to deliver on inflated lines against lesser teams. UConn is 7-2 ATS against teams with winning records, including covers against Cincinnati, West Virginia, Pittsburgh and Notre Dame.

Many of the Huskies' final scores have looked more like hoops contests, hitting the over with regularity and with room to spare. UConn combined to almost double the total with Syracuse (87 points, 44 total) and Cincinnati (92 points, 51 total) and it and Notre Dame eclipsed a big number (63 points, 57.5 total). So this bowl's total of 51.5 certainly shouldn't scare anyone away.



Cotton Bowl

Mississippi Rebels vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys (+3, 50.5)

The House that Jerry Built welcomed its first college football and basketball games since opening in May. Now, Cowboys Stadium will serve host to its first Cotton Bowl when the Ole Miss Rebels and Oklahoma State Cowboys meet in Arlington.

Temperatures in North Texas are expected to be mild on Friday, but if inclement weather should rear its ugly head the $1.3 billion dollar palace will simply close its retractable roof.

Firing line

The opening spread of -3 in favor of Ole Miss has remained dormant, although, some 3.5s have surfaced on a few boards. The total has not been volatile either, sitting at the 50.5 mark it was released at.

The skinny

This is a tale of two teams that did not live up to expectations in 2009. Both were ranked inside the preseason Top 10 and were trendy sleeper picks to win their conferences, but neither finished among the Top 20 teams in the country.

The Rebels climbed to the No. 4 ranking in the polls after two weeks of play, but were humbled in their first conference road game against South Carolina and never completely bounced back. Additional losses to Alabama, Auburn and Mississippi State resulted in Houston Nutt’s squad holding an average 8-4 overall record and subpar 4-4 conference mark.

“Just to be in bowl game is big. But now to be the first team to play in this stadium is an honor,” defensive end Kentrell Lockett told reporters. “So the motivation is to be here, to win another ballgame against a good team and to get out that previous bad taste in our mouths.”

All-America wideout Dez Bryant was only available for the first three games of the season before being suspended by the NCAA, but the Cowboys’ national championship hopes died in Week 2 following a home loss to Houston.

Mike Gundy must have given his team an “I’m a man!” speech after that game because Oklahoma State rattled off five straight wins before getting blown out by Texas at home. The Cowboys still had a chance to play in a BCS game, but got shutout by rival Oklahoma in the regular season finale.

The only time these two teams have met was in the 2004 Cotton Bowl when Eli Manning guided the Rebs to a 31-28 victory over the Cowboys as 3-point favorites.

Dexter

Jevan Snead threw 20 touchdowns this season but offset that with 17 interceptions in what became a sophomore slump of a year for the dual-threat signal-caller. Ole Miss discovered a replacement offensive threat in all-purpose back Dexter McCluster.

McCluster might be the most electric player in college football and if he’s not, he certainly gives C.J. Spiller and the Super Rodgers Bros. at Oregon State a run for their money. McCluster racked up 985 rushing and 475 receiving yards with nine touchdowns in 11 games this season.

"[McCluster] is a very talented guy,” OSU defensive coordinator Bill Young told the media. “He's got excellent speed and he has that ability to evade the tackle. He can jump sideways as fast as he can move forward. He's a lot stronger running the football than you would think with his size."

The senior will face a stingy OK State run defense that ranks sixth in the country, surrendering 87.7 ypg. McCluster was held to 82 yards rushing in the Egg Bowl versus Mississippi State, but averaged 205.3 yards on the ground in the three games prior.

Bucking the trends

The Cotton Bowl has matched up the SEC against the Big 12 for the last 11 years and the SEC has won five of last six meetings.

Oklahoma State has appeared in three straight bowls, going 2-1 straight up and ATS during that stretch. The Cowboys are 12-7 all-time in postseason play.

Ole Miss won the Cotton Bowl last season over Texas Tech as 3.5-point underdogs. The Rebels have won seven of their last eight bowl appearances and gone 6-1-1 ATS during that span.



Liberty Bowl

Arkansas Razorbacks vs. East Carolina Pirates (-7.5, 63.5)

Arkansas possesses one of the productive and explosive offenses anywhere, but its defense allows nearly as many big plays down the field.

East Carolina uses a conservative style to move the chains and control the clock.

One style will win out over the other when the two teams face off in the AutoZone Liberty Bowl in Memphis, Tenn.

Line movement

The opening line of 8 has moved down to 7.5 on most boards. The total of 63.5 hasn’t moved.

Suspensions and injuries

Three Arkansas defensive players have been suspended for the game for leaving the team's hotel in Memphis after curfew. Two players were starters while the third played in five games this season. Senior linebacker Wendel Davis could be the biggest loss after finishing second on the team with 79 tackles while senior safety Matt Harris recorded 71 tackles.

Freshman defensive tackle D.D. Jones was injured during a scrimmage in late December and will miss the game with a high-ankle sprain.

The Razorbacks finished ranked 90th in total defense (401.8 ypg) this season and losing three starters can only compound problems.

Arkansas air attack

Arkansas had the SEC’s most productive offense – more than Florida, Alabama or LSU – averaging 303 yards passing per game and another 136 rushing.

It all revolves around sophomore quarterback Ryan Mallett, who passed for 3,422 yards, 29 touchdowns and seven interceptions. Weapons are aplenty, with three receivers catching 31 passes or more. There’s not much of a rushing attack to complement Mallett, though a back-by-committee did finish with four different rushers gaining 100 yards or more apiece.

In other words, Arkansas will keep throwing until ECU gives the Razorbacks a reason not to.

Softening the Mallett

If East Carolina can slow Mallett, it has a real shot. The fact that the Pirates beat pass-happy Houston 38-32 in the Conference USA championship game (Houston threw for 527 yards) would seem to show it is possible.

The Pirates allowed more than 400 yards per game this season, including 262 through the air. But they also allowed just 22.1 points per game, the definition of a “bend but don’t break” unit.

ECU has forced a turnover in 28 straight games and had more than 30 of them this season. Nine different players had interceptions for the Pirates.

The team’s turnover success is predicated on the Pirates’ ability to get to the quarterback. All-conference linemen C.J. Wilson and Linval Joseph have led a charge that’s piled up 20 sacks in its last eight games.

Mallett, a 6-foot-7, 240-pound hulk of a man, was brought down on average twice per game this season.

Tit for tat

Few teams could slow Arkansas’ offense this season, but in turn, the Razorbacks struggled to stop anyone. They were the SEC’s worst team against the pass (251.8) and in overall yards (401.8) and weren’t much better against the rush (150.1).

ECU runs to set up the pass and is balanced overall. Quarterback Pat Pinkney threw for 2,738 yards but only 14 TDs to 10 INTs. His offensive line has done a great job of protecting the senior, allowing only one sack in the team’s last seven games.

In the conservative pass attack of coach Skip Holtz, Pinkney actually completed 32 more passes than Mallett (242 to 210) but threw for nearly 700 fewer yards.

If Arkansas builds a sizeable lead in the first half, ECU may be forced to come out of its comfort zone and throw the ball downfield.

Trendy solutions

The under is 6-0 in Arkansas’ last six bowl games.

The over is 4-1 in East Carolina’s last five bowl games.

The over is 9-2 in last the 11 games Arkansas is favored.

East Carolina is 0-6 ATS in its last six non-conference games.



Alamo Bowl

Michigan State Spartans vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders (-7.5, 59.5)

This year’s Alamo Bowl will feature two teams in turmoil as Michigan State and Texas Tech are set to do battle in San Antonio.

While both squads are dealing with serious off-the-field issues, things have not exactly been pretty on the field, especially for Michigan State. The Spartans (6-6, 4-6-1 ATS) just barely qualified for postseason play, have lost three of their last five and are coming off a 42-14 blowout loss to Penn State.

The Red Raiders (8-4, 6-5 ATS) have won two straight, including a 41-13 rout of Oklahoma, but will be playing their bowl game without head coach Mike Leach.

Line movements

Texas Tech opened as a 7-point favorite at most betting sites and that spread was generally on the rise until recently resurfacing at 7. The Red Raiders have been favored by as many as 8.5 points at times. The total opened at 60.5 and has rarely wavered outside of a one-point range with 59.5 being the low mark.

Suspended

It was announced on Dec. 1 that Michigan State coach Mark Dantonio had suspended eight players for the bowl game, stemming from their participation in a dorm-room brawl.

Three of the Spartans were starters: Receivers Mark Dell (26 catches, 449 yards, 1 TD) and B.J. Cunningham (48 catches, 641 yards, 4 TDs) and defensive back Chris L. Rucker (fourth on the team with 58 tackles and first with seven pass breakups).

Canned

While Michigan State will be shorthanded on the field, Texas Tech will be one short on the sideline. Missing from the Alamo Bowl will be Leach, who was fired on Wednesday.

A statement from the university said that Leach has been “terminated with cause effective immediately.”

While the firing will do little to end the controversy in Lubbock, it at least gives some finality to the question over Leach’s bowl-game status. Leach had initially been suspended as a result of accusations of ill treatment levied by player Adam James, who has been suffering from post-concussion symptoms.

Leach wraps up his career at Texas Tech with an 84-43 record. The Red Raiders earned a winning record in all 10 of Leach’s seasons, including an 11-2 campaign in 2008. Defensive coordinator Ruffin McNeill will lead the team in the Alamo Bowl. McNeill has served 24 seasons at the college level but never as a head coach.

“We have a team of guys who have been through adversity most of the year,” said McNeill. “We’ve had some things where most teams would have folded. So this team has been strong from the core.”

If there is any good news for the Spartans and Red Raiders, it is that neither team is dealing with any recent injury problems that would have ameliorated their already-colossal issues.

Back to the game at hand

It’s hard to tell from the current media circus, but a football game between Michigan State and Texas Tech will actually be played.

The Spartans face a scary matchup when they take the field – a matchup made even scarier due to Rucker’s absence. Michigan State is last in the Big Ten in passing defense, allowing 251.6 yards per contest while Texas Tech is dominating the Big 12 in passing offense with 380.7 yards per game.

Junior quarterback Taylor Potts has thrown 20 touchdowns and 12 interceptions in 10 games for the Red Raiders.

Michigan State also leads its conference in passing offense (271.2 average) and sophomore quarterback Kirk Cousins has thrown 18 touchdowns to just seven interceptions.

Trending topics

The Spartans are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games overall and 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as an underdog. They are also 1-4 ATS in their last five against the Big 12.

The Red Raiders are 1-6 in their last seven games on grass and 0-4 ATS in their last four bowl games. They are also 0-4 ATS in their last four against the Big Ten.

Michigan State (7-4 O/U) has been a relatively strong over play this season while the under has been generally been the way to go with Texas Tech (4-7 O/U).

The over is 4-0 in the Spartans’ last four games overall. The under is 4-0 is in the Red Raiders’ last four games overall, but the over is 4-1 in their last five bowl appearances.


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[Udog]

NCAAF
Dunkel - Sat. POD


Mississippi vs. Oklahoma State
The Rebels look to build on their 7-0 ATS record in their last 7 non-conference games. Mississippi is the pick (-3) according to Dunkel, which has the Rebels favored by 6. Dunkel Pick: Mississippi (-3).

[Udog]

NCAAF
Write-Up


Saturday, January 2

International Bowl
Toronto
MAC lost last 14 bowl games; Northern Illinois is 7-5 despite allowing 83 points in losing last two games- they won 28-21 at Purdue lost 28-20 at Wisconsin, so BCS foe shouldn't phase them. MAC dogs are 20-15 vs spread in non-league games. South Florida lost five of last seven games after 5-0 start, struggling because senior QB Grothe blew his knee out and was replaced by freshman Daniels; they're 3-1 as favorite this year, but they're 3-11 vs spread in last 14 games on artificial turf. NIU is 10-5 vs spread in its last 15 games as the underdog. Big East faves are 9-9-1. Average total in the three International Bowls (dome) is 63.7.

Papajohn's Bowl
Birmingham
UConn had rough year, with CB Howard dying; Huskies lost three in a row by total of 10 points after the death, but rallied to win the last three games, scoring 39 ppg. Big East teams are 2-2 in bowls, SEC teams 3-3. Spurrier is 7-8 in bowls, 1-2 at Carolina- they were awful in 31-10 bowl loss LY, figure to be better this time around, with more stable coaching situation. Big East underdogs are 9-3 vs spread in non-league games this season; SEC favorites are 20-12. Average total in three Papajohn's Bowls is 45; average total in last seven UConn games is 57.4. UConn is 6-0 vs spread as an underdog this season; Gamecocks are just 1-3 as a favorite.

Cotton Bowl
Dallas (Cowboys Stadium)
This is first Cotton Bowl not played in Cotton Bowl (Jerry World); Ole Miss crushed Texas Tech in this bowl LY, fifth SEC win over Big 12 in last six Cotton Bowls. Houston Nutt went to Oklahoma State, was aide there when OSU coach Gundy was team's QB. SEC favorites are 20-12 vs spread in non-league games; Big 12 underdogs are 4-4. Ole Miss was disappointing after being ranked as high as #4 early in season- they have 12 senior starters, OSU has 16. Cowboys have senior QB, four senior starters on OL. This is only third time in last dozen years SEC team is favored in this game (they covered previous two times). Always wary of teams returning to same bowl they won the year before.

Liberty Bowl
Memphis
Underdogs covered five of last seven Liberty Bowls, winning three of last four SU. East Carolina has 12 seniors, 8 juniors starting, so they're an experienced underdog facing young Hog squad that has five seniors in starting lineup. Arkansas should have crowd edge, playing close to home, but they're 0-3 in Liberty Bowl, 2-11 in last 13 bowls. Hogs are 4-1 as a favorite this year, Pirates 2-2-1 as dog. Conference USA underdogs are 13-19 vs spread, SEC favorites are 20-12. Gametime temps expected to be around 30, with slight winds. East Carolina is 0-3 vs D-I opponents outside Conference USA this year, losing by 15-14-13 points.

Alamo Bowl
San Antonio
Michigan State has 12 players suspended after campus fight; Texas Tech fired its eccentric coach and awaits a legal brawl which has already been a divisive factor in the Tech program. There is no normal way to handicap this game, other than to say that missing a head coach is worse than 12 players being suspended, especially since none of the 12 is the starting QB. Tech is 0-2 in Alamo Bowls; Dantonio is 0-2 in bowls with MSU. Underdogs are 5-2 vs spread in last seven Alamo Bowls. Big 11 teams are 8-5 in last 13 Alamo Bowls, but 1-3 in last four, with losses by 4-2-7 points. Unique scenario here-- I have a pick on this game in box below.


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[Udog]

NCAAF


Saturday, January 2

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Tips and Trends
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Connecticut Huskies vs. South Carolina Gamecocks [ESPN2 | 2:00 PM ET]

Connecticut: Emotions are running high for the Huskies, as they play their 1st Bowl game since the passing of Jasper Howard. Connecticut has played well down the stretch, winning their last 3 games SU. The Huskies have been relying on their running game, as new QB Zach Frazer has struggled to manage this offense. The tandem RB duo of Jordan Todman and Andre Dixon have combined to rush for more than 2,200 YDS with 28 total TDs. This duo is clearly one of the best RB units in the nation and have led their team to an averaged of 40 PPG over their last 4 contests. This Huskies defense is struggling, having allowed 27 PTS or more in 6 consecutive games. The Huskies defense has been picked apart through the air, as they lack playmakers in their secondary. The Huskies were tremendous on the road, winning all 6 games ATS. The Huskies were also an impressive 6-0 ATS as an underdog this season.

Connecticut is 6-0 ATS last 6 games as an underdog.
Over is 7-0 last 7 games overall.

Key Innjuries - QB Cody Endres (shoulder) is out.

PROJECTED SCORE: 27 (Side of the Day)

South Carolina (-3.5, O/U 51.5): South Carolina comes into today with a 7-5 record both SU and ATS. The Gamecocks have lost 3 of their last 4 games SU by double digits. The Gamecocks only won 1 game outside of their home state this season as they went 1-4 SU on the road. Despite their SU troubles on the road, the Gamecocks did go 3-2 ATS away from home. South Carolina is 1-3 ATS this season as a favorite, with today being the first time this season they've been the listed favorite away from home. QB Stephen Garcia has come on strong this year, as he finished 2nd in the SEC conference with nearly 2,750 passing YDS. The Gamecocks only averaged 21.8 PPG which was the 2nd lowest scoring average in the SEC. The Gamecocks only allowed 21 PPG this season, but they were wearing down as the regular season concluded. South Carolina has given up 24 PTS or more in 3 of their past 4 games.

South Carolina is 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 6-2 last 8 games following a S.U. win.

Keyh Injuries - S Jarrett Burns (finger) is questionable.
G Kevin Young (ankle) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 24



Ole Mississippi Rebels vs. Oklahoma St. Cowboys [FOX | 2:00 PM ET]

Ole Miss (-3, O/U 50.5): Ole Miss is looking for history to repeat itself, as they won last years edition of the Cotton Bowl. The Rebels have yet to lose back to back games SU this season. The Rebels were 2-3 both SU and ATS away from home this season. Today's game represents the smallest the Rebels have been favored by all season. Ole Miss was 3-4 ATS as a single digit favorite this year. QB Jevan Snead was billed as a Heisman contender this year, but he's had a disappointing season. Snead has thrown for less than 2,500 YDS with a completion rate under 55%. Snead also has 17 INTs this year to go along with 23 total TDs. RB Dexter McCluster is close to becoming the first player in SEC history with both 1,000 YDS rushing and 500 YDS receiving in the same season. After allowing only 2 teams to score more than 17 PTS against them all season, the Rebels have allowed their past two opponents to score a combined 64 PTS.

Ole Miss is 7-0 ATS last 7 non conference games.
Over is 6-0 last 6 non conference games.

Key Innjuries - FB Andy Hartmann (ankle) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 30 (OVER - Total of the Day)

Oklahoma St: Despite getting shut out in their final game of the regular season, the Cowboys have plenty to play for today. With a win today, the Cowboys will tie the school record with 10 victories in a season. The Cowboys stand at 9-3 SU and 5-5-1 ATS on the season. Oklahoma St. was 3-1 SU when playing on the road, including an ATS record of 2-1-1. Today will be the 3rd time this season the Cowboys are the underdog. They lost both games SU and ATS in the underdog scenario. After starting the season with a prolific offense, the Cowboys have only averaged 20.6 PPG over their past 5 games. Because of QB injuries, RB Keith Toston has carried the offensive load for the Cowboys. Toston has over 1,400 total YDS with 12 TDs on the season. Defensively, the Cowboys are 6th in the country at stopping the run, allowing less thatn 88 YPG on the ground. The Cowboys have allowed 21.8 PPG this season, along with less than 330 total YPG.

Oklahoma St is 0-5 ATS last 5 games as an underdog.
Over is 4-1 last 5 games as an underdog up to a field goal.

Key Injuries - RB Kendall Hunter (foot) is probable.
OL Russell Okung (knee) is probable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 27


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[Udog]

NCAAF
Write-Up


Monday, January 4

Fiesta Bowl
Glendale, AZ

Underdog is 6-2 vs spread in last eight Fiesta Bowls (5-2 in last seven SU) with Boise posting 43-42 upset of Oklahoma three years ago. MWC teams are 4-0 in bowls this season, winning all four SU as the dog. Boise is 48-4 the last four seasons, but they lost 17-16 (+3) to TCU LY in the Poinsettia Bowl. Horned Frogs won last four bowls; only one was by more than seven points; they're 53-10 the last five seasons. Surprising stat: Boise State has only four scholarship seniors on its team. TCU has six senior starters. WAC road dogs are 10-8 vs spread in non-divisional games. MWC favorites are 5-7 vs spread, 2-2 on road.


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[Udog]

NCAAF


Monday, January 4

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What bettors need to know
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Fiesta Bowl

Boise State Broncos vs. TCU Horned Frogs (-7.5, 55)

Many have discredited matching two non-BCS conference schools in a BCS bowl. Nevertheless, this year’s Fiesta Bowl pits two of just the four remaining undefeated FBS teams in a battle for possibly the runner-up spot in the final rankings.

Line movement

The line opened with TCU as a 9-point favorite but the betting public immediately jumped on Boise State, dropping the number to seven-and-a-half, where it has held constant. The total opened at 54 and slowly increased to 55 over the last few weeks.

The wagers are about dead even picking either team against the spread, whereas the over and especially Boise State’s moneyline (+250) are overwhelming selections by the public.

Significant injuries/suspensions

Boise State wide receiver Austin Pettis, who leads the team with 14 touchdown receptions, suffered an ankle injury in late November and is a game-time decision, according to head coach Chris Peterson.

Texas Christian All-MWC cornerback Rafael Priest injured his ankle less than two weeks ago. It looked then there was little hope of him appearing in the Fiesta Bowl but, according to Priest, “it’s [now] looking pretty good” for him to play.

Similar scheduling

One argument is that TCU is a legitimate national-title contender, and certainly more so than Boise State, is the Horned Frogs have played a somewhat challenging schedule. Supporters point to TCU’s games against Air Force and BYU in conference and non-conference foes Virginia and Clemson, all four on the road.

This stance is somewhat of a misconception, especially when compared to BSU, as both teams have faced similar schedules of difficulty. They have played the same number of teams (six) with winning records and nearly the same number (BSU five/TCU six) of bowl teams.

Running success

Texas Christian is known for its dominant defense, however, the Horned Frogs offense is just as successful, especially when running the ball.

Quarterback Andy Dalton had a record-breaking season passing and is one of four Frogs to rush for at least 500 yards. TCU finished the regular season ranked fifth in the nation in rushing offense, seventh in yards per carry and sixth in rushing touchdowns.

Boise State has shown to be susceptible to the run. Although the Broncos held seven opponents to under 100 yards rushing, Fresno State rushed for 320 against them, Nevada for 242 and Idaho for 209.

Very special teams

Boise State has arguably the best overall special teams unit in college football. The Broncos are averaging almost 39 yards net punting, 11 yards per punt return and 27.3 yards on kick returns—fifth best in the nation. They have also blocked four kicks while having none of their own kicks blocked.

Besides leading BSU in receiving, junior wideout Titus Young has returned two kickoffs for touchdowns. Whether running the football (he averaged more than 10 yards per carry and scored three touchdowns) receiving or returning kicks, Young is one of the best big-play players in the WAC.

"We missed [having big plays] last year - especially the TCU game [in the Poinsettia Bowl], with the type of players they had on the field," teammate Jeron Johnson told reporters. "You can't guard [Young] 1-on-1."

Key matchup

Boise State quarterback Kellen Moore is the FBS’ highest-rated passer but was fortunate to face some of the worst pass defenses in the nation, namely Idaho, Nevada, Hawaii and San Jose State. Only Oregon’s pass defense posed any threat to Moore.

Against TCU, Moore will face one of the best defenses against the pass in all of college football. Against a pass-happy schedule, led by Priest, Nick Sanders and receiver-turned-strong safety Tyler Luttrell, the Horned Frogs have allowed opponents to complete just 46 percent of their passes.

"[The Broncos] throw the ball all over the field," said Priest. “I look forward to covering Pettis or any other great receivers they have."

Trends

Boise State and TCU have faced one another twice in their histories. The Broncos won the 2003 Fort Worth Bowl 34-31 as 11-point favorites and the Frogs won last year’s Poinsettia Bowl 17-16 as 3-point favorites.

These teams are two of the best against the spread in the last several years. Boise State has won more than 63 percent of its games ATS since 1999. Texas Christian has won nearly 66 percent ATS since 2005.

The Horned Frogs are 11-13-1 all time in bowls, 6-4-2 ATS since 1984. The Broncos have a 5-4 bowl record, 6-3 ATS.


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[Udog]

NCAAF
Dunkel


Boise State vs. TCU
The Horned Frogs look to build on their 6-1 ATS record in their last 7 games as a favorite. TCU is the pick (-7) according to Dunkel, which has the Horned Frogs favored by 7. Dunkel Pick: TCU (-7). Here are all of this week's picks.

MONDAY, JANUARY 4

Game 261-262: Boise State vs. TCU
Dunkel Ratings: Boise State 102.082; TCU 110.181
Dunkel Line: TCU by 8; 58
Vegas Line: TCU by 7; 54 1/2
Dunkel Pick: TCU (-7); Over


TUESDAY, JANUARY 5

Game 263-264: Iowa vs. Georgia Tech
Dunkel Ratings: Iowa 96.395; Georgia Tech 99.965
Dunkel Line: Georgia Tech by 3 1/2; 55
Vegas Line: Georgia Tech by 5 1/2; 50 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Iowa (+5 1/2); Over


WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 6

Game 265-266: Troy vs. Central Michigan
Dunkel Ratings: Troy 86.078; Central Michigan 92.044
Dunkel Line: Central Michigan by 6; 68
Vegas Line: Central Michigan by 3; 63
Dunkel Pick: Central Michigan (-3); Over


THURSDAY, JANUARY 7

Game 267-268: Texas vs. Alabama
Dunkel Ratings: Texas 113.727; Alabama 111.878
Dunkel Line: Texas by 2; 48
Vegas Line: Alabama by 4; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas (+4); Over

[Udog]

NCAAF


Monday, January 4

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Tips and Trends
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Boise St. Broncos at TCU Horned Frogs [FOX | 8:00 PM ET]

Boise St: Boise St. has become the 1st team in the BCS era to get an at large bid from a non-qualifying conference. The Broncos finished their season with a perfect 13-0 SU record. The Broncos went 4-2 ATS on the road this season. Today represents the 1st time this season that the Broncos will be the listed underdog. Boise St. has scored at least 42 PTS in 7 consecutive games. This Broncos offense is so balanced, as they are ranked 14th in the nation both passing and rushing. Not surprisingly, the Broncos lead the nation in scoring at 44.2 PPG. QB Kellen Moore has 39 TD passes to only 3 INTs this year, and leads all starting QBs in QB Rating this season. Defensively, the Broncos need to improve their run defense, as they've allowed opponents to rush for an average of 175 YPG over their past 5 games. This Broncos defense has forced 12 turnovers over their past 4 games, as they've been an opportunistic defense all year long.

Boise St is 6-2 ATS last 8 bowl games.
Under is 6-2 last 8 games as an underdog.

Key Injuries - WR Austin Pettis (ankle) is questionable.
LB Derrell Acrey (leg) is probable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 21

TCU (-7.5, O/U 53.5): TCU has had an unbelievable season, going undefeated the entire season. TCU has been winning in blowout fashion, as they've won by at least 27 PTS in each of their past 7 games. TCU was 8-3 ATS this season, and 2-0 ATS when the point spread was single digits. The Horned Frogs were 5-1 ATS away from home this season, with the lone loss coming in brutal weather elements against Air Force. TCU has scored more than 50 PTS in 3 of their past 4 games, and have scored at least 40 PTS in 6 of their past 7 contests. QB Andy Dalton directs the 4th best offense in the country, as he has over 3,000 total YDS with 25 TDs against 5 INTs this season. 4 different Horned Frogs have rushed for at least 500 YDS this season. TCU has the best total defense in the nation, only allowing 233 YPG. The Horned Frogs also only allow 12.4 PPG this year. TCU has held 6 of their past 7 opponents to 12 PTS or less coming into tonight.

TCU is 6-1 ATS last 7 games as a favorite.
Under is 5-0-1 last 6 Bowl games.

Key Injuries - S Tekerrein Cuba (hamstring) is questionable.
CB Rafael Priest (ankle) is doubtful.

PROJECTED SCORE: 27 (UNDER - Total of the Day)


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[Udog]

NCAAF


Tuesday, January 5

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What bettors need to know
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Orange Bowl

Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (-4, 50.5)

The next meaningful football game to be played at LandShark Stadium after Thursday will be Super Bowl XLIV, so the Orange Bowl representatives have a lot to live up to.

Iowa was in the national championship mix after starting the season 9-0, but lost two of its last three games after the Hawkeyes starting quarterback went down with an injury.

Georgia Tech won the ACC behind the triple-option attack implemented by second-year head coach Paul Johnson. Opposing defenses know a heavy dose of running is coming straight into their grill, but few can stop the onslaught.

What’s my line?

Oddsmakers installed the Yellow Jackets as 2.5-point favorites, but the ACC champs quickly got bumped over the key number to a current spread of 4. The total has not moved much from an opener of 51 and can be found as low as 50.

Ocean’s 11

The nation’s 11th-ranked offense collides with the 11th-ranked defense in this affair.

Georgia Tech’s option offense is run by quarterback Josh Nesbitt who ran for 18 touchdowns this season and threw for another 10. Backs Jonathan Dwyer and Anthony Allen complement each other to create a lethal precision-power combination in the backfield.

The Jackets offense averages more than 440 yards per outing and during an eight-game winning streak in the middle portion of the season posted an average of 39.0 ppg.

Iowa’s defense didn’t see many option looks this year in the Big Ten.

"I'm sure we have played somebody that runs the option, but certainly not to this extent and not with this proficiency," Ferentz told reporters. "I'm not quite sure how you even come close to simulating that in practice. I don't really have any idea how we're going to do that."

Out of air

If you’re looking for a shootout, this might not be the game to watch as neither team throws the ball often.

When Georgia Tech does elect to toss the rock, expect to see Demaryius Thomas on the receiving end. The 6-foot-3, 230-pound junior hauled in 46 of the team’s 76 completions this year and eight of the 11 receiving touchdowns. Thomas is a legit big-play threat, averaging 25.1 yards per catch.

The Hawkeyes passing game will benefit from the return of quarterback Ricky Stanzi, who missed the last three games with a high ankle sprain, but this guy isn’t going to put a team on his shoulders and beat you through the air.

One of Stanzi’s top targets this season was tight end Tony Moeaki. The 6-foot-4, 250-pound beast of a man snared 26 balls for 302 yards and four scores this season and will most likely be playing on Sunday’s next year.

What’s your motivation?

Even though Iowa was in the championship hunt, the team played above expectations this season and has to be pleased with making it to a BCS game. The last time the Hawkeyes were in a BCS contest was the 2003 Orange Bowl where they lost to USC, 38-17.

Georgia Tech hasn’t won a bowl game since 2004 and coach Johnson is eager to earn his first postseason victory after getting dismantled by LSU, 38-3, in last year’s Chick-fil-A Bowl.

"We have more exposure,” he told the media. “More people are probably going to watch [the game] than a regular-season game because you're the only one on. It's national TV and a BCS game, so you have a chance to make a statement one way or another."

This is the first ever meeting between these two schools.

Trendy solutions

These were two of the more profitable teams in the NCAA this season, with the Jackets posting an 8-4 ATS record while the Hawkeyes went 7-4 ATS.

Georgia Tech is 3-7 in last its last 10 bowl appearances and 4-6 ATS during that stretch.

Iowa has gone 4-3 straight up in bowls since 2000, going 5-2 ATS in those games.


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[Udog]

NCAAF
Dunkel - Tues. POD


Iowa vs. Georgia Tech
The Hawkeyes look to build on their 4-1 ATS record in their last 5 games as an underdog between 3 1/2 and 10 points. Iowa is the pick (+5 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has Georgia Tech favored by only 3 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Iowa (+5 1/2).

[Udog]

NCAAF
Write-Up



Tuesday, January 5

Orange Bowl
Miami/Ft Lauderdale
Underdog covered three of last four Orange Bowls; ACC teams are 1-6 in their last seven Orange Bowls. Big 11 teams are just 2-1 in this bowl the last 15 years. ACC favorites are 14-8 vs spread in non-conference games, 7-2 on road; Big 11 underdogs are 9-2 vs spread, 6-1 on road. Ferentz is 4-3 in bowl games (5-2 vs spread), but one of losses was here five years ago 38-17 to USC; Iowa travels very well, so they should have edge in crowd support. So far in bowl season, underdogs are 20-10-1 vs spread, with under 18-13. Iowa is 4-0 as an underdog this year- they covered 4 of last 5 as a bowl dog. Georgia Tech lost their last four bowls, covered two of last seven as a bowl favorite.

Tech runs the option over and over, but Nesbitt can hit long pass; they are 5-2 vs bowl teams this year, Iowa is 6-2. Jackets only have three of their starters graduating, so they're young to be in this spot, Hawkeyes have six senior starters. Iowa hasn't faced option but they've had ton of time to practice against it. QB Stanzi has been erratic, but at least will be healthy here. Too bad these two teams couldn't have played Boise State and TCU instead of each other. Both games would have been better


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