NCAAF Trends and Indexes - Bowl Season (12/19 - 1/7)

[Udog]

NCAAF


Monday, December 28

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Tips and Trends
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Texas A&M Aggies vs. Georgia Bulldogs [ESPN2 | 5:00 PM ET]

Texas A&M: Texas AM might have only finished the regular season 6-6 SU, but they certainly made their .500 record interesting. The Aggies gave Texas all they could handle in their last game, falling 39-49 to the Longhorns. Texas AM is 1-4 both SU and ATS this season away from home. The Aggies are also 2-2-1 ATS as an underdog this season. QB Jerrod Johnson anchors the overall 5th best offense in the country, averaging 465 YPG this season. Johnson has over 3,600 total YDS himself, including 36 TDs. Texas AM has scored at least 34 PTS in 4 of their past 5 games. Unfortunately, the Aggies defense has held them back this year, as they are 107th in the country in total defense. The Aggies gave up 35 PTS or more in 6 of their 12 games this year. Texas AM has struggled in bowl games of late, losing 10 of their past 12 bowl contests SU.

Texas A&M is 0-5 ATS last 5 neutral site games.
Over is 8-2 last 10 games following a SU loss.

Key Injuries - DB Coryell Judie (shoulder) is out.

PROJECTED SCORE: 24

Georgia (-6.5, O/U 66): Georgia has won 3 of their past 4 games SU to make yet another bowl this season. Georgia finished the season with a 7-5 SU record. The Bulldogs beat Georgia Tech to end their regular season, easily their best performance of the season. Georgia is 3-3 both SU and ATS away from home this season. The Bulldogs are also only 2-5 ATS as the listed favorite this season. The Bulldogs offense is starting to get in a groove, as they've scored 30 PTS or more in 3 of their past 4 games. With a commitment to the run, Georgia has rushed for an average of 250 YPG on the ground their last 4 games. Senior QB Joe Cox has thrown for over 2,400 YDS with 22 TDs against 14 INTs. The Bulldogs allow nearly 31 PPG on the road this season, and that's one of the reasons why they fired their defensive coordinator. Georgia has had recent success in bowls, winning 12 of their last 15 Bowl contests.

Georgia is 8-3 ATS last 11 bowl games.
Over is 8-3 last 11 neutral site games.

Key Injuries - S Bacarri Rambo (concussion) is probable.
DE Montez Robinson (suspension) is out.

PROJECTED SCORE: 41 (Side of the Day)


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[Udog]

NCAAF


Tuesday, December 29

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What bettors need to know
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Champs Sports Bowl

Wisconsin Badgers vs. Miami Hurricanes (-3.5, 58)

Miami (9-3, 7-5 ATS) seems like a prohibitive favorite over Wisconsin (9-3, 6-6 ATS) in Tuesday’s Champs Sports Bowl. But the Hurricanes opened up giving only two points.

To most, that seemed too low for a team perceived to be more talented than the Badgers and certainly with a more impressive resume.

Miami owns high-profile wins over Georgia Tech and Oklahoma and, with a strong core of young playmakers, is poised to be ranked in or near the Top 10 next season.

In contrast, Wisconsin’s best wins came against Michigan State and Fresno State. Plus, who doesn’t remember the Badgers’ performance in last year’s 42-13 Champs Sports Bowl loss to Florida State?

Naturally, early action on the Canes bumped them up to -3, with several -3.5’s available online entering the weekend. With the number already past a field goal, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the line move even higher, although most Las Vegas books refused to budge off 3 as of Saturday afternoon.

But it appears bettors are more likely to get the Badgers at +4 than the Hurricanes at anything less than -3.

Injuries

Miami quarterback Jacory Harris has been hampered by a painful right thumb on his throwing hand.

The injury occurred in a Nov. 14 loss at North Carolina, a game in which Harris threw four interceptions.

He played through the pain in two convincing wins to end the season, 34-16 over Duke and 31-10 over South Florida. But the thumb is still bothering him.

"I thought my finger was just going to heal," Harris told the Miami Herald at the start of bowl practice. "But maybe something else is wrong with it. It's still the same as it was for the North Carolina game. I've gotten used to it"

It won’t keep him out.

The more costly injury for the Canes is the loss of starting left offensive tackle Jason Fox. The team’s MVP and projected first-day draft pick, Fox will miss the bowl game after having knee surgery.

Junior Orlando Franklin will replace Fox on an offensive line that struggled to protect Harris this season. Miami is 91st in the nation in sacks allowed. Wisconsin is 21st in the nation in sacks recorded.

Wisconsin has no notable injuries.

Statistically speaking

Wisconsin: Balanced and more explosive than in recent years, the Badgers owned the Big Ten’s top offense this season.

Wisconsin averaged 32.75 points per game. But those stats are a little misleading. Against the two best defenses they faced, Ohio State and Iowa, the Badgers, managed just 13 and 10 points respectively in back-to-back October losses to the Buckeyes and Hawkeyes.

Defensively, the Badgers are eighth in the nation against the run and didn’t allow a Big Ten foe to rush for more than 100 yards all season.

Miami: The Hurricanes are battle-tested after competing against the 16th toughest schedule, according to the Sagarin Ratings.

Miami does the majority of its damage through the air and has multiple big-play receivers capable of exploiting Wisconsin’s Big Ten speed.

However, how will the loss of their top offensive lineman affect the Canes passing attack? If the Badgers are able to hit Harris often, will his dinged-up thumb be able to hold up?

The Total

The total opened up at 58.5 and has seen very little movement.

Miami averages 31.67 points to go along with Wisconsin’s 32.75 points a game.

The Canes went 6-6 over/under, with an average total of 49.5.

Wisconsin went 8-4, over/under, with an average total of 52. The last four Badger games have gone over the total.

The game’s in Orlando, so weather is not expected to be a factor.

John Clay vs. Miami run defense

The Hurricanes allow only 114 yards on the ground per game.

Wisconsin averaged more than 200. Something has to give.

Clay, the Big Ten Player of the Year, is a horse who got stronger as the season went along. He has rushed for more than 100 yards in five straight games.


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[pm530]

NCAAF


Tuesday, December 29

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What bettors need to know
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Eagle Bank Bowl

UCLA Bruins vs. Temple Owls (+5, 45)

Betting the numbers

UCLA opened as a 4.5-point favorite but has since been bet up a half-point.

This line could continue to climb as the latest consensus reports indicate that the money has been pouring in on the Bruins at a 3-to-1 clip.

The total has dropped two points since opening at 47. That’s not a big surprise, as we’re not talking about the flashiest of offenses in this matchup.

Trouble Bruin’

UCLA won its first three games of the season before going 3-6 the rest of the way. The Bruins only three conference wins came against three of the Pac-10’s worst teams in Washington, Washington State and Arizona State. It was that late season three-game winning streak that got them into this Bowl game.

Any success the Bruins are going to have in this game will likely have to come from their defense. They limited opponents to just over 21 points per game on 338 total yards per game over the course of the season. Unfortunately, their offense was held to fewer than 20 points six times. Their backers are hoping they can benefit from taking a step down in class against a MAC opponent.

Note that the Bruins went 4-1 ATS as favorites but 2-5 ATS as underdogs this season.

Owls take flight

Not much was expected of the Temple Owls this season, particularly on the offensive side of the ball. They exceeded expectations by winning nine games, all in succession. It was quite a turnaround after a tumultuous start that saw them lose their home opener against Villanova.

The Owls offense produced over 30 points per game on the strength of an outstanding rushing attack that averaged 192 rush yards per game on 4.5 yards per rush. They own the 23rd ranked rushing attack in the country.

Defensively, the Owls posted numbers on par with those of the Bruins, allowing slightly over 21 points per game on 335 total yards per game. They ranked 19th in the nation against the run, allowing just 108.8 rush yards per game.

Coaching carousel

When the Bruins were searching for a new head coach two years ago, they gave Al Golden, now coaching at Temple, a long look. They liked him enough to give him two interviews, but not enough to choose him over Rick Neuheisel.

While Neuheisel has guided UCLA to a 10-14 record over two seasons, Golden just finished leading his Owls to their first winning season since 1990. That was enough to earn him MAC coach of the year honors.

Injury report

The Bruins are hoping to have the services of QB Kevin Prince after he suffered a shoulder injury in their regular season finale against USC. Ryan Taylor, the team’s starting center is likely to be held out due to a foot injury.

The Owls should have super frosh RB Bernard Pierce back in the fold after he missed the final two regular season games with an injured shoulder. Pierce ran for over 1,300 yards and 15 touchdowns this season.

Even if Pierce can’t go, the Owls are still in good hands with Matt Brown. He ran for 425 yards and four touchdowns on 6.5 yards per rush in relief of Pierce this season.

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[Udog]

NCAAF
Dunkel - Tues. POD


Wisconsin vs. Miami (FL)
The Hurricanes look to take advantage of a Wisconsin team that is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games against teams with a winning record. Miami (FL) is the pick (-3) according to Dunkel, which has the Hurricanes favored by 5 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Miami (FL) (-3).

[Udog]

NCAAF


Tuesday, December 29

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Tips and Trends
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UCLA Bruins vs. Temple Owls [ESPN | 4:30 PM ET]

UCLA (-4.5, O/U 45.5): UCLA was the very last team to make it into a Bowl game this season, with a season record of 6-6 SU. The Bruins have been very streaky this year, featuring two different 3 game winning streaks, along with a 5 game losing streak this season. UCLA is 2-4 SU and 3-3 ATS on the road this year. The Bruins are an impressive 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS this season as the listed favorite. QB Kevin Prince is healthy again, but not sure if that's a good thing for UCLA. Prince has only completed 56% of his passes this year, and has more INTs than TDs (7 to 6) this year. This Bruins offense has been held under 20 PTS in exactly half of their games this season. In games the Bruins are favored in they've played great defense, limiting 4 of their 5 opponents to 14 PTS or fewer. This Bruins defense has forced 11 turnovers in their last 3 games.

UCLA is 6-1 ATS last 7 games as a favorite.
Under is 14-3 last 17 games following a SU loss.

Key Injuries - DB Marlon Pollard (face) is doubtful.
QB Kevin Prince (shoulder) is probable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 27 (OVER - Total of the Day)

Temple: To say Temple is exciting to be playing in a bowl game would be a slight understatement. This is the first bowl game for Temple in 30 years. The Owls had won 9 consecutive games SU before losing to Ohio in their last game. This is only the 4th winning season in the past 30 years of Temple football. The Owls are 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS away from home this season. Temple is also 3-0 ATS as an underdog during their improbable season, with 2 of those wins being SU. This Owls offense has scored 34 PTS or more in 3 of their past 4 games, mostly due to their running game. The Owls have rushed for more than 200 YDS in 6 straight contests. Freshman RB Bernard Pierce rushed for more than 1,300 YDS with 15 TDs this season. 6 of the Owls 11 opponents scored fewer than 20 PTS this season. The Owls are 19th in the nation at stopping the run, allowing less than 110 YPG.

Temple is 6-1 ATS last 7 games as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points.
Over is 7-0 last 7 games overall.

Key Injuries - RB Bernard Pierce (shoulder) is probable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 24



Wisconsin Badgers vs. Miami Hurricanes [ESPN | 8:00 PM ET]

Wisconsin: Wisconsin finished the regular season at 9-3 SU, and are playing in the Champs Sports Bowl for the 2nd season in a row. Wisconsin has won 4 of their past 5 games in getting to the Champs Sports Bowl. The Badgers are 3-2 SU and 2-3 ATS on the road this season. Today will represent only the 3rd game this season Wisconsin is the underdog, having gone both 1-1 SU and ATS this year. Wisconsin has scored at least 31 PTS in 4 of their 5 road games this season, with a season high 51 in their last game in Hawaii. Big Ten Offensive Player of the Year RB John Clay leads a rushing attack that averages over 205 rushing YPG, 14th in the nation. Clay has 1,375 rushing YDS of his own including 16 TDs for the season. The Badgers need to improve their defense away from home, as they've allowed at least 28 PTS in every road contest but one this season.

Badgers are 1-6 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 9-1 last 10 games following a SU win.

Key Injuries - OL Bill Nagy (foot) is doubtful.
OL Peter Konz (lung) is doubtful.

PROJECTED SCORE: 24

Miami (-3, O/U 58): The 14th ranked Hurricanes will be playing in their home state today attempting to win double digit games for the first time in 6 seasons. Miami was 4-2 SU and 3-3 ATS away from home this season. The Hurricanes were 2-4 ATS this season as a single digit favorite. Miami comes into todays bowl game having lost 4 of their past 6 games ATS, all as the listed favorite. QB Jacory Harris leads a Hurricanes offense that averages 31 PPG for the year. Harris has thrown for more than 3,150 YDS which ranks him 15th in the Country. Harris has also thrown for 23 TDs, but is tied for the most INTs in the nation with 17. RBs Graig Cooper and Damien Berry combined for over 1,200 rushing YDS this year. Defensively, the Hurricanes have held 3 of their past 4 opponents to 17 PTS or fewer. All 3 of the Hurricanes losses this year came when they gave up more than 30 PTS to their opposition.

Miami is 7-3 ATS last 10 bowl games.
Under is 6-1 last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.

Key Injuries - QB Jacory Harris (thumb) is probable.
DL Eric Moncur (calf) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 34 (Side of the Day)


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[Udog]

NCAAF


Wednesday, December 30

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What bettors need to know
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Humanitarian Bowl

Bowling Green Falcons vs. Idaho Vandals (+2, 68)

Betting the numbers

The oddsmakers opened the Falcons as 1-point favorites, but the line has since been bet up to -2 at most outlets.

They’re expecting a tightly-contested game, but the betting public has other ideas, currently backing Bowling Green at a 2-to-1 clip.

Action has been relatively split on the total, so it’s not surprising that the number has held steady since opening at 68

Bowling for dollars

The Bowling Green Falcons were one of the best bets in the nation down the stretch, cashing in each of their final four regular season games. Their offense really turned things around after a dismal September that saw them score only 75 points in four games. From October onward, the Falcons put up at least 30 points in seven of eight games.

There’s no debate, the Falcons will have the best player on the field in WR Freddie Barnes. He finished the season with a career-high 16 touchdown receptions to go along with two rushing scores. He not only led the nation in touchdowns, but also in receptions with 138. In fact, he needs just five catches to break the all-time record of 142, which was set in 1989.

Where the Falcons are lacking is in their ground game and on defense. They average just 83 rush yards per game on 3.0 yards per rush and give up over 26 points per game on 396 total yards per game. That’s a recipe for disaster for a favorite in Bowl season.

Putting the ‘O’ in Idaho

If you thought the Falcons were a bad defensive team, wait until you see the Vandals. Idaho finished the regular season allowing 35.5 points per game on nearly 425 total yards per game. The Vandals held their own against the run, only because teams chose to beat them through the air, where they allow 8.2 yards per pass play.

The good news is that Idaho can score. The Vandals average close to 32 points per game on over 450 total yards per game. Their passing attack is one of the best in the nation, averaging 291 pass yards per game on 9.5 yards per pass play.

Idaho pulled off a rare feat this season, scoring at least 45 points in two losses. That’s not something they should be proud of, but it does give you an idea as to why this total sits in the high 60s.

Home field advantage?

The Vandals will have the opportunity to play a Bowl game in a WAC venue here at Boise State. Head coach Robb Akey was pleased with his team’s Bowl draw.

“We’re very excited to be representing (the Western Athletic Conference) in the Humanitarian Bowl. It’s great that this is the bowl we’re going to, too. It’s our state capitol. We have a ton of alums in the community. It’s going to be an awesome time.”

The Falcons last played at Bronco Stadium on September 13th, 2008 and hung tough against Boise State, losing by only 13 points.

Injury report

The Vandals will need a healthy Nathan Enderle if they’re to have any shot of keeping up with the Falcons in this one. The Vandals QB missed time late in the season but did return to throw for 262 yards and three touchdowns against Utah State. For the season, he threw for over 2,600 yards and 18 touchdowns. He is listed as probable due to a shoulder injury.

Bowling Green is fairly healthy heading into this game. The Falcons will be without a pair of wide receivers in Tyrone Pronty and Calvin Wiley. That’s nothing new as Wiley didn’t play at all during the regular season and Pronty was used sparingly, with just 10 catches for 65 yards and a touchdown. Falcons defensive tackle Kevin Alvarado (2.5 sacks) will not be available for this game after being charged with assault in November.


Holiday Bowl

Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Arizona Wildcats (+2.5, 40)

The 32nd installment of the Holiday Bowl commences on Wednesday at Qualcomm Stadium in San Diego. The game features a matchup between the Big 12 and Pac-10 conferences with the Nebraska Cornhuskers squaring off against the Arizona Wildcats.

Line dance

The game opened as a ‘pick’ and slowly swung in favor of Arizona to as high as 1.5, but the Cornhuskers have since picked up heavy steam and made them a 2.5-point favorite. A low opening total of 41 was likely spurred by two Top 25 defenses and has now dropped to 39.5 in some markets.

How they got here

Nebraska compiled a 9-4 record behind a porous offense and suffocating defense. The Cornhuskers boast the second-ranked scoring defense (11.2 ppg) and ninth-ranked total defense (284.5 ypg) in the nation.

The Huskers offense sputtered the second half of the season, finishing the year ranked 102nd in total offense. In the Big 12 title game versus Texas, Nebraska gained only five first downs and 106 yards of total offense. Quarterback Zac Lee hasn’t thrown for more than 200 yards in his last five outings and was held to less than 75 yards passing during three of those games.

Sixth-year coach Mike Stoops guided Arizona to its best season (8-4) since 1998 when the program went 12-1. Sophomore quarterback Nick Foles became one of the Pac-10’s most efficient gunslingers this year, throwing for 2,438 yards and 19 touchdowns against eight interceptions.

This game will mark the third time these two teams have met. Arizona defeated Nebraska 23-20 in this same Holiday Bowl 11 years ago as a 3-point underdog. The only other matchup came in Lincoln in 1961 which resulted in a 14-14 tie.

Motivation factor

If one more second ticks off the clock Nebraska is the Big 12 champion and Colt McCoy is thrown into the all-time brain fart faction with guys like Chris Webber. The Huskers were one second away from playing in a BCS bowl as the Big 12 representative.

''From one of the best feelings I've ever had to one of the worst feelings I've ever had,'' Lee said after the loss to Texas. ''I don't really have a way to describe the way I feel right now.''

Arizona was six seconds away from defeating Oregon on Nov. 21, but allowed Jeremiah Masoli to find Ed Dickson in the end zone that sent the game into overtime. If the Wildcats keep the Ducks from scoring, they are representing the Pac-10 in the program’s first Rose Bowl appearance.

Both of these teams have to be somewhat disappointed to be in the Holiday Bowl after being seconds away from playing in a BCS game.

King Kong

For the casual college football fan, Ndamukong Suh flew under the radar most of the season. After collecting 12 tackles and 4.5 sacks in the Big 12 championship, the All-World defensive tackle put his name on the map and finished fourth in the Heisman voting while collecting hardware after winning the Lombardi Award.

“Certainly that's a great measure to go up against a great player like him,” Stoops said. “It's a great challenge for our players. We're going to have to play very well up front offensively, and we have all year.”

Suh led Nebraska with 82 tackles, 23 tackles for a loss and 12.0 sacks. The 6-4, 300-pounder is projected to go No. 1 overall in the NFL Draft.

In the trenches

The Huskers D-line totaled 42 sacks on the season while the Wildcats O-line surrendered 11 sacks. The Arizona offense operates behind the running game and short passes from Foles. Suh and the gang will have to get to Foles quickly in order to bring him down and disrupt the passing attack.

Arizona tailback Nic Grigsby is expected to return after being limited since Week 4 with a nagging shoulder injury and missing four of the last five games.

Run to the border

San Diego is in close proximity to the Mexico border, but Coach Stoops has removed all temptation for his players.

“We turned off Tijuana to them,” he said. “It was off limits. Nothing good has been happening down there for some time.”

Trend tracker

These two teams combined for an 8-17 over/under record this season. The under is 11-3 in the Cornhuskers last 14 games.

Nebraska is 2-3 straight up in its last five bowl appearances and 3-2 ATS during that stretch.

Arizona is 3-0 in its last three bowl games but 1-1-1 ATS in that span.


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[Udog]

NCAAF
Dunkel - Wed. POD


Nebraska vs. Arizona
The Wildcats look to build on their 4-0 ATS record in their last 4 December games. Arizona is the pick (Pick) according to Dunkel, which has the Wildcats favored by 2. Dunkel Pick: Arizona.

[Udog]

NCAAF
Write-Up


Wednesday, December 30

Humanitarian Bowl
Boise

Idaho allowed 50 ppg in losing four of last five games, but because they started season 6-0; big question for Vandals is health of its QB Enderle, who hurt his shoulder during season. Idaho is 1-3 vs bowl teams, losing by 10-25-38 points to Fresno-Nevada-Boise- they beat No Illinois by 3. Vandals have four senior starters on OL, but they're ranked in bottom 20 of country in six different defensive categories.

Bowling Green won six of last seven games after 1-4 start; three of their five losses were by 7 points- they scored 20 or less points in four of the five games. Falcons are 1-5 vs bowl teams (beat Troy State by 17); their senior QB Sheehan is 7th in country in total offense. WR Barnes needs five catches to set all-time NCAA single season record. Falcon kickers are just 10-18 on field goals inside 40 yards, a definite weak spot.

MAC teams are now 0-10 in bowls the last 2+ seasons; Falcons lost to Tulsa 63-7 in their last bowl appearance 10 years ago. Idaho was last in a bowl 11 years ago, upsetting Southern Miss here as 17-point dog, Boise is only 300 miles from Moscow, so Vandals figure to have sizeable edge in crowd support. Light snow and temps in mid-30s are expected but no real winds, so expect a high scoring shootout with two porous defenses.

Holiday Bowl
San Diego

Nebraska came within one second of playing in BCS bowl, but going to San Diego has to be good for Cornhuskers, considering this is just their second bowl in last seven years, after they played in 42 straight bowls from 1962-2003. 11 of 13 Nebraska opponents scored 17 or less points; Huskers were minus-12 in turnovers in their four losses; five of their six senior starters play on defense. Huskers are +5 in blocked kicks this yr.

Arizona runs Texas Tech system; assistant coach Dykes is son of former Tech coach. Red Raiders beat Nebraska this year 31-10, only game they lost by more than two points. Wildcats lost DC Stoops to Florida State; they've got 11 senior starters, three of whom start on OL. Wildcats are averaging 30 ppg and 4-7 yards/game; they figure to get injured Grigsby back, their best RB. Arizona ranks 4th in punt returns, 11th with kicks.

Average total in last three Holiday Bowls is 71.3, with seven of last nine totals in this bowl 55+. Pac-10 teams are just 4-6 in last 10 appearances here. Underdog covered nine of last eleven Holiday Bowls. Arizona's last three games were all decided by four or less points; they're 5-3 this year against bowl teams; Nebraska is 3-4. Arizona has edge at QB, Nebraska has better defense. Neither team has much bowl experience.


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[Udog]

NCAAF


Wednesday, December 30

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Tips and Trends
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Bowling Green Falcons vs. Idaho Vandals [ESPN | 4:30 PM ET]

Bowling Green (-1, O/U 68): Bowling Green has won 4 consecutive games SU in route to a 7-5 record this season. The Falcons have scored 30 or more PTS in all 7 wins this season, including 7 of their last 8 games. Bowling Green is 4-2 both SU and ATS this season away from home. The Falcons are 3-3 ATS as a single digit favorite this year. Bowling Green moves the chains offensively through the air, with WR Freddie Barnes likely on the finishing end of things. The Biletnikoff finalist led the country in both catches and TDs this season (138 and 16) respectively. 14 of those TD catches have come in his past 5 games. Senior QB Tyler Sheehan has thrown for over 3,650 YDS with 23 TDs against 6 INTs. Defensively, the Falcons have held 5 of their past 6 opponents to 24 PTS or fewer. The Falcons allow over 190 rushing YPG, but have forced 11 turnovers over their past 4 games.

Bowling Green is 4-0 ATS last 4 games as a favorite.
Under is 5-1 last 6 games following an ATS win.

Key Injuries = DT Kevin Alvarado (disciplinary) is doubtful.
WR Tyrone Pronty (foot) is out.

PROJECTED SCORE: 41 (Side of the Day)

Idaho: Idaho is bowling for the first time in 11 years, and making the game even sweeter is the fact that they are playing in their home state. Idaho struggled to end the season, losing their last 3 games SU in finishing the year 7-5 SU. In those 3 losses, the Vandals allowed 146 PTS combined. In fact, over their past 5 games the Vandals are allowing exactly 50 PPG. After winning their first 6 games as underdogs ATS, Idaho has lost their past 3 games as the listed underdog. The Vandals are also 4-2 ATS away from home this season. QB Nathan Enderle leads this Vandals offensive attack, as he's got the 7th highest quarterback rating in the country at 122.75. RB DeMaundray Woolridge leads a 3 headed rushing attack that has combined for over 1,800 YDS and 24 total TDs. The Vandals have lost 3 consecutive bowl games to teams representing the MAC Conference.

Idaho is 0-5 ATS last 5 games overall.
Over is 8-1 last 9 non-conference games.

Key Injuries - QB Nathan Enderle (shoulder) is probable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 30



Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Arizona Wildcats [ESPN | 8:00 PM ET]

Nebraska (-2.5, O/U 41): Nebraska was 1 measly second away from playing in a BCS game, as they pushed highly favored Texas to the max. Nebraska was once again led by a dominating defense that limited Texas to half of their typical offensive numbers. DT Ndamukong Suh is a manchild, as he's clearly the best defensive player in college football. Suh had 82 tackles, 12 sacks, and 23 tackles for a loss this season in route to a 4th place finish in the Heisman Trophy voting. Nebraska struggles on offense but is led by RB Roy Helu, who ran for over 1,100 YDS this season. The Cornhuskers have been held under 270 total YDS in 4 of their past 5 games. Nebraska has won 5 of their past 6 games SU to finish the season at 9-4 SU. Nebraska was 4-1 SU on the road this season, including 3-2 ATS away from home this year. Nebraska was also 2-1 ATS as a single digit favorite this season.

Nebraska is 5-0 ATS last 5 non-conference games.
Under is 5-1 last 6 Bowl games.

Key Injuries - RB Quentin Castille (disciplinary) is out.

PROJECTED SCORE: 21 (UNDER - Total of the Day)

Arizona: The last time Arizona played Nebraska, they were victorious in this exact bowl in 1998. The 22nd ranked Wildcats will be looking for similar results tonight. Arizona finished the regular season at 8-4 SU in a season filled with promise. Arizona was very close to going to the Rose Bowl before losing to Oregon at home in the final seconds. Arizona is 3-3 SU away from home, including an ATS record of 2-4. As an underdog this season, Arizona is 3-2 ATS. Sophomore QB Nick Foles has come on strong since taking over the QB position, finishing the season as the 4th rated passer in the Pac-10. RBs Nic Grigsby and Keola Antolin have combined for 1,100 yards and nine TDs this year. In their past 3 road games, this Arizona offense is only averaging 19 PPG. Defensively, the Wildcats only allow 315 YPG which ranks them 21st in the country. The Wildcats have also held 4 of their past 5 opponents to 2 TDs or fewer in each contest.

Arizona is 9-3 ATS last 12 games as an underdog.
Under is 11-2 last 13 games as an underdog up to a field goal.

Key Injuries - RB Nicholas Grigsby (shoulder) is probable.
QB Nick Foles (hand) is probable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 13


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[Udog]

NCAAF


Thursday, December 31

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What bettors need to know
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Texas Bowl

Navy Midshipmen vs. Missouri Tigers (-6.5, 51.5)

There are a million of good reasons the NCAA should scrap the bowl system for a tournament, but this game provides one good argument for keeping it.

Only in a minor bowl would you get such an intriguing matchup between two teams with completely contrasting styles. It's Daryl ''Moose'' Johnston vs. Darrel ''Mouse'' Davis.

Under a tourney format, these two teams, assuming they made the field based on their four-loss seasons, would be forced to face a top-seeded team and would likely make early exits.

But there's more to these two teams than just their win/loss records. The numbers that matter to them are the ones they put on their side of the scoreboard, averaging almost 60 points per game between them, and they take different modes of transportation to do so.

For the Midshipmen, it's all about the ground game. Quarterback Ricky Dobbs operates a powerful triple-option attack that preys upon a defense's soft spots and mistakes - two things this Missouri defense have been known for this season.

But the Tigers' offense is used to playing tit-for-tat with opponents with a quick-strike passing game. In fact, quarterback Blaine Gabbert completed one fewer pass in his final two games (46) than Dobbs did all season.

If you like classic battles between opposing forces - good vs. evil, cops vs. robbers, run vs. pass - this is one of the bowls to put on your to-do list.

Line movement

The line opened at Missouri -9 and quickly dove down to a touchdown or less, settling in at -6.5. Part of it was due to the Army game, the only time many fans watched the Midshipmen play all year. But it also indicates the general public is wising up to the fact that Navy has a strong team. The total has held steady at 52.5.

Injury report

Missouri may be without second-leading receiver Jared Perry suffered a leg injury late in the season that continues to hamper him. He has 46 catches for 696 yards and six touchdowns this season. The defense lost linebackers Luke Lambert and Josh Tatum at midseason and are unlikely to return in time for this one.

The Midshipmen come in to this one at full strength, or maybe those tough Navy guys play through the pain.

Weather or not

The forecast calls for partly cloudy skies and highs in the mid-50s. There is a 20 percent chance of rain, but because the game is played in the convertible-roofed Reliant Stadium, where it's always 72 degrees and no wind, game officials will make the call whether or not to put the top down.

Air vs. Terra Firma

If opposites truly attract, these two teams should get married. Navy is No. 3 in the nation in rushing but No. 119 in passing. Missouri's splits aren't quite that wide but the Tigers average almost 300 yards per game through the air, slightly more than the Midshipmen gain on the ground.

Dobbs and fullback Vince Murray have combined for almost 2,000 yards and could become the first teammates to go over the 1,000-yard mark in the same season since USC's Reggie Bush and LenDale White did it at USC. The Tigers can run the ball behind Derrick Washington too.

But Missouri's primary weapon will be 6-foot-5 receiver Danario Alexander, who hails from nearby Marlin, Texas. He has put up huge numbers this season by catching 107 passes for 1,644 yards. Almost half of Gabbert's passing yards and 13 of his 23 TD tosses have gone to Alexander.

Alexander has five double-digit reception games, including the final four contests of the schedule. That's more catches in each of his last four games than any Navy receiver has caught all season. With No. 2 target Perry questionable with a leg injury, look for Gabbert to look Alexander's way even more.

Counter attacks

Missouri's run defense is ranked No. 12 in the nation, giving up just 96.2 yards per game and only 2.9 per carry. The Tigers' defense has seen the option this season, but not one this solid.

The Midshipmen are no slouches against the pass, ranking No. 48 nationally and allowing 207 yards per game through the air. Likewise, they have not seen the likes of Missouri's spread attack this season.

Both teams are respectable in terms of total defense, with Missouri ranking No. 55 in the nation and Navy coming in at No. 36, which brings bettors to another statistical oddity. The No. 36 seems to be pivotal for the Tigers this season, having scored an average of 37 points per game in their eight wins and more than 35 points per game in their four losses.

Odds and trends

Both teams come into the bowl on a bit of a hot streak, winning three of their last four games SU. But the line tells a different story.

Both teams are 1-3 ATS over that same span, with Navy winning outright at Notre Dame and then failing to meet inflated expectations against Delaware, Hawaii and Navy. Missouri blasted Kansas State but gave up way too many points to Baylor, Iowa State and Kansas.

The Tigers appear to be the hotter of the two after Navy got upset on the big island and played trench warfare with Army for a half before winning 17-3. Missouri rallied past the rival Jayhawks 41-39 on a last-second field goal in their finale and should carry some momentum to Houston.

The Tigers might also have the crowd support considering the fact that they're playing in Big 12 country and 31 of their players hail from the Lone Star State. Of course, there's a Naval Air Station just a short drive away in Corpus Christi and the military academies are known to order, uh, necessitate travel for its cadets.

The Tigers have lost eight of their last nine games ATS versus teams with a winning record.



Armed Forces Bowl

Air Force Falcons vs. Houston Cougars (-5, 63)

If you think you have a case of déjà vu don’t be alarmed because this is a rematch of last year’s Armed Forces Bowl.

The Houston Cougars will look to snatch a second straight bowl win away from Air Force after defeating the Falcons 34-28 as 4-point favorites in Fort Worth last year.

A mild kickoff temperature of 42 degrees graces the northern sector of Texas but a 30 percent chance of rain could bring showers during the latter stages of the game.

Under center

Falcons quarterback Connor Dietz broke his hand against Utah and missed the last four weeks of the season. The team went 3-1 straight up and against the spread without him while averaging 33.8 ppg.

Sophomore Tim Jefferson replaced Dietz under center, but he got banged up against BYU in the season finale. Jefferson threw for 368 yards and three touchdowns and ran for 73 yards and a score in Air Force’s last three wins.

Dietz has been upgraded to probable for the game which means both signal-callers could see action on Thursday.

Matchups

Houston quarterback Case Keenum directed the top-ranked passing (450.0 ypg) and total offense (581.2 ypg) in the country this season. Keenum and his receiving corps will test their mettle against the Falcons’ No. 1 pass defense that yields less than 150 yards per outing.

Conversely, Air Force racks up points on the ground with the No. 3-ranked rushing offense at 273.6 ypg. The Cougars finished 111th in rush defense (213. ypg) and surrendered more than 200 yards rushing in six games.

Bowl history

Houston had lost eight straight bowl games before knocking off Air Force last year and is 2-3 ATS since 2000.

The Falcons have lost three consecutive bowls, going 1-2 ATS in that span. The last postseason win for Air Force came in a 37-34 win over Fresno State in 2000.

Both teams are 8-10-1 all-time in bowl games.


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[Udog]

NCAAF


Thursday, December 31

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What bettors need to know
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Insight Bowl

Iowa State Cyclones vs. Minnesota Golden Gophers (-2.5, 48.5)

Iowa State and Minnesota just barely squeaked into a bowl game as the No. 6 teams from the Big 12 and Big Ten, respectively.

The Cyclones (6-6, 7-4 ATS) limped in down the stretch by losing three of their last four and they are coming off a 34-24 setback against Missouri.

The Golden Gophers (6-6, 6-6 ATS) lost two of their last three and their lone win in that span was a 16-13 victory over San Diego State. They most recently fell to Iowa by a humbling 12-0 score.

Line movements

Minnesota opened as a 2.5-point favorite and that is where the line currently stands, having rarely wavered between 2 and 3 at most betting sites. The total of 48.5 opened at 48 and has experienced minimal fluctuation.

Infirmary report

Iowa State has been relatively injury-free since seeing a quartet of players go down in September and October. However, senior cornerback Kennard Banks (seventh on the squad with 55 tackles) was suspended earlier this month for violating team rules.

Senior receiver Eric Decker, who has five touchdowns and leads Minnesota in both catches and receiving yards despite playing just eight games, is still suffering from a foot injury and will almost certainly be out.

Something’s gotta give

Minnesota’s offense has simply been dismal this season. The Gophers rank last in the Big Ten in scoring and they are especially futile in the running department. They are averaging a mere 2.9 yards per carry.

At the same time, Iowa State’s defense has been generous. The Cyclones are second to last in the Big 12 in total defense and they are allowing 169.3 rushing yards per game, also second to last in the conference.

Gopher running backs Duane Bennett and Kevin Whaley have struggled to get anything going on the ground, but this could be their opportunity to turn the tide.

Common opponent

Minnesota’s recent 12-0 loss to Iowa came when the Hawkeyes were without starting quarterback Ricky Stanzi. The Gophers were able to handle Iowa’s short-handed offense and surrendered just 171 yards of total offense, including only 54 on the ground.

Iowa State hosted its in-state rival back on Sept. 12, and Stanzi tossed four touchdowns in a 35-3 Hawkeye victory. The Cyclones, who led 3-0 before giving up 35 unanswered points, managed to gain 190 yards on a stingy Iowa run defense, but they passed for just 113 yards and turned the ball over six times.

Happy to be there

With first-year head coach Paul Rhoads at the helm, the Cyclones are in a bowl game for the first time since the 2005 season, when they fell to TCU in the Houston Bowl.

“We are thrilled to death to be playing in a bowl game, to be practicing in December and have the opportunity to play,” Rhoads explained.

“It’s the greatest feeling to know that we are going to Arizona (Sun Devil Stadium in Tempe) to play a Big Ten team and we are very excited about that,” added quarterback Austen Arnaud.
The Gophers have played in two of the past three Insight Bowls (lost to Texas Tech in 2006 and to Kansas in 2008) and they are happy to be back.

“We’ve been here before,” noted head coach Tim Brewster. “We understand the routine. We’re here to win a football game and that is what’s most important.”

Trending topics

Iowa State is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games overall and 10-2 ATS in its last 12 against the Big Ten.

Minnesota is 2-5 ATS in its last seven games as a favorite and 0-4 ATS in its last four bowl games as a favorite. The Golden Gophers are also 3-7 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games.

The under is 5-1 in Iowa State’s last six games overall. The under is also 3-0-1 in ISU’s last four bowl games and 5-0 in the team’s last five against the Big Ten.

The over is 7-3 in Minnesota’s last 10 games overall and 10-3 in the Gophers’ last 13 non-conference contests. The over is also 4-1 in the team’s last five bowl games.



Chick-fil-A Bowl

Tennessee Volunteers vs. Virginia Tech Hokies (-6, 49.5)

In Atlanta’s Chick-fil-A Bowl, Tennessee and Virginia Tech will meet for only the eighth time ever and just the second since 1937. Although both the Volunteers and Hokies have respectable offenses, both teams’ defenses are amongst college football’s most admired.

Line movement

The line opened with Virginia Tech as a 4.5-point favorite but has since climbed to 6. The total opened at 50.5 but, with most bettors recognizing the teams’ revered defensive units, has since dropped a point.

Although the betting public likes the Hokies -6 by a slight margin over the Volunteers, Tennessee’s moneyline (+200) is being wagered more than eight times than that of Virginia Tech’s.

Significant injuries/suspensions

Only one meaningful player will miss the bowl for either teams—Virginia Tech’s Stephan Virgil. Virgil, a senior considered the Hokies’ best cornerback entering the season, was recently dismissed due to academics after an injury restricted his play for most of the year.

Either sophomore Cris Hill or freshman Jayron Hosley will replace Virgil.

Block that kick

Under Coach Frank Beamer, Virginia Tech has a long-established reputation for special teams play, especially blocking kicks. Although the Hokies have blocked just one kick this season (a punt vs. Miami), it was returned for a touchdown by Matt Reidy.

In addition, Virginia Tech’s Dyrell Roberts returned a kickoff for a touchdown against Alabama and Hosley returned a punt for a score against Marshall.

Tennessee has allowed six of its kicks (four FGs, one punt, one PAT) to get blocked and two kickoffs to be returned for touchdowns; the Volunteers have not blocked a kick or returned a kickoff or punt for a score.

Crompton’s comeback

Senior quarterback Jonathan Crompton was responsible for one of the greatest career turnarounds in Tennessee football history.

From the beginning of last year leading up to the Georgia game this season, against nine BCS-conference opponents, Crompton completed less than 51 percent of his passes, averaged less than 5.1 yards per attempt, and threw three touchdowns and eight interceptions. Beginning with the game against Bulldogs, Crompton has completed more than 61 percent of his passes and eight yards per attempt for 17 touchdowns and just four interceptions in seven games.

Although Virginia Tech has the sixth best pass efficiency defense in the nation, the Hokies have intercepted only 10 passes in 341 pass attempts by their opposition.

Whooh, Williams

When Virginia Tech’s Darren Evans tore his ACL in mid-August, Ryan Williams was unexpectedly forced into the starting lineup. The freshman running back has been quite a pleasant surprise, to say the least.

Williams’ 1,538 rushing yards and 20 total touchdowns are ACC records for a freshman; his yardage is also the fourth most in conference history.
“Special,” is a word Beamer uses to describe Williams. “When he gets the football, whooh.”
Although the Volunteers have held five of 12 opponents to less than 90 net rushing yards, they have allowed four to rush for 200 or more. In its last eight games, Tennessee has allowed five individual players to rush for 99 yards or more, including 282 by Ole Miss’ Dexter McCluster.

Key matchup

Tennessee safety Eric Berry, a junior and two-time All-American from the Atlanta area, is likely playing in his final game and will probably be used as a spy against versatile Tyrod Taylor, Virginia Tech’s quarterback.

Although he had a very successful season, Taylor struggled against Alabama, Nebraska, and North Carolina, three of the better defenses in the country, completing less than half of his passes and rushing for negative yardage in all three games.

Spearheaded by the hard-hitting Berry, Tennessee’s pass defense is on of the best in the nation, ranking eighth in the FBS in pass efficiency defense while allowing only five touchdown passes all season.

“[Eric] wants to focus on winning this game, playing extremely well, especially because it’s in Atlanta,” said Tennessee head coach Lane Kiffin.

Trends

Since 1999, Virginia Tech is 98-8 SU when outrushing its opponent, including 9-0 SU and 6-2-1 ATS this season.

Tennessee is just 17-19 SU against AP-ranked teams since 2002 (Virginia Tech enters the game ranked 12th), including 1-2 this season; however, the Volunteers are 3-0 ATS versus the ranked in 2009.

From 1984-1998, the average margin of victory in this bowl was only 3.3 points with none of the 15 games being decided by more than a touchdown. However, over the last 10 years, the margin has averaged 16.9 points with only one game being decided by less than six points.


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[Udog]

NCAAF
Dunkel - Thur. POD


Tennessee vs. Virginia Tech
The Hokies look to take advantage of a Tennessee team that is 4-16-2 ATS in its last 22 games as an underdog between 3 1/2 and 10 points. Virginia Tech is the pick (-5 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Hokies favored by 7. Dunkel Pick: Virginia Tech (-5 1/2).

[Udog]

NCAAF
Write-Up


First Post

Thursday, December 31

Armed Forces Bowl
Fort Worth
Mountain West teams are 3-0 in bowls this season, despite being dog in all three games; they scored 35.3 ppg in those games, with average total of 63.7. Air Force lost this bowl the last two years, getting beat 34-28 to this same Houston team LY, after beating Cougars 31-28 in Dallas in the regular season (game moved because of a hurricane). Falcons are +18 in turnovers this year, despite playing 20 freshman (most in the country).

Houston is 10-3; they scored 41-32-32 points in its losses, 44+ in five of its last six wins; they're 4-3 vs bowl teams this year, but lost their last two road games. The way to beat Houston is to possess the ball; Central Florida upset Cougars by holding ball for 39:30. Houston allows foes to run ball for 213 yards/game- five of their top of defensive linemen are freshmen. C-USA teams are 16-22 in their last 38 bowl games.

Has to be hard for Houston to get jacked up to play same team they beat in this same bowl last year, especially a service academy. MWC teams are 17-7 in their last 24 bowl games, 13-4 in last 17, but Air Force lost two of those four games. Favorites covered this bowl five years in a row. Average total in the six Armed Forces Bowls is 55.7, with totals 78-62 the last two seasons. 30% chance of rain, 47 degrees, 10-20 mph winds.


Sun Bowl
El Paso
Stanford-Oklahoma both using backup QBs in this game; Bradford hurt his shoulder in season opener; freshman Jones played most of the year. Stanford freshman Luck broke his finger last game, so senior Pritchard is starter; he has started before, leading Cardinal to huge upset of USC in 2007 (were 42-point dogs). So Sun Bowl, which endured 3-0 Oregon St win over Pitt LY, gets a bowl this year with two backup QBs starting.

Bob Stoops is 4-6 in bowl games (3-7 vs spread) usually much bigger bowls than this one; Sooners are 1-5 on road this year; they're starting six seniors, eight juniors, and are 3-5 vs bowl teams. In nine games, they used nine different starting combinations on OL due to injuries- they've got only eight healthy offensive lineman on scholarship. Stanford is the only one of the seven Pac-10 bowl teams thats an underdog.

Pac-10 teams won last five Sun Bowls, with underdogs 11-3 vs spread in last 14 Sun Bowls. Losing side scored 30+ points in four of last eight in this bowl. Pac-10 teams are 2-3 in bowls this year, 12-4 in last 16 bowls, 25-13 in last 38. . Cardinal starts five seniors; they're 4-3 against bowl teams- this is Harbaugh's first bowl as a head coach. Stanford has good special teams, but they're slowish on defense-- Notre Dame passed for 340 yards against them. Weather: 51 degrees, sunny, winds 10-20 mph.


Texas Bowl
Houston
Navy is 9-4, playing in its 7th bowl in a row; Niumatalolo lost his two bowls, Naby lost last three. Effort is never a problem with academy teams and Middies have 14 players from Texas, so motivation isn't an issue, but they beat Army Dec 12, later than usual, so Missouri has two more weeks to prepare for this. Navy is 3-1 as an underdog; they're 3-3 vs bowl teams. QB Dobbs ran for 24 TDs this year, most ever by a QB.

Missouri might be disappointed to be in Houston, getting passed over by three other bowls; this is their fifth bowl in row. Tigers have big edge in special teams (5th in US in net punting); they start seven sophomores on offense, but came on late in year, winning four of last five games, as they scored 32+ points in last five games. Despite losing seven starters from LY's defense, Missouri actually played better defense this season.

Pinkel is 4-2 in bowl games, 3-2 at Missouri. Big 12 teams are 10-8 last 18 bowls, 1-1 this year. Tigers have only 15 seniors on team; they're 4-4 as favorite, this year, 3-1 on road. Mizzou is 4-3 vs bowl teams, 2-5 vs spread. Favorite won this bowl the last eight years (5-1-2 vs spread), with an average total of 49.5. Big 12 teams are 5-1 in this game (3-1-1 vs spread as a favorite).

[Udog]

NCAAF


Thursday, December 31

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What bettors need to know
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Sun Bowl

Stanford Cardinal vs. Oklahoma Sooners (-10, 55.5)

The 76th annual Sun Bowl will pit the Pac-10’s Stanford Cardinal against the Big 12’s Oklahoma Sooners on Thursday in El Paso.

Line movement

Despite Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck being doubtful for the game, the Cardinal moved from opening underdogs of 11 points to a spread as low as 8. The total has dropped from an opener of 57 to a current number of 55.5.

The bowl road

Stanford was the hottest team in the country coming off consecutive wins over Oregon and USC and posting more than 50 points in each. But their Rose Bowl hopes withered when they lost to their arch-nemesis, Cal, in the Big Game at home.

Coach Jim Harbaugh put the Cardinal back on the college football map after compiling its best record (8-4) since the 2001 season. Harbaugh might have been the best play-caller in the country this year with Stanford ranking 10th in scoring offense (36.2 ppg) while being extremely balanced in its rushing (224.3 ypg) and passing (217.1 ypg) attacks.

After starting the season ranked No. 3 in the country, Oklahoma had a year to forget. It all started with quarterback Sam Bradford going down in the first game of the season – a 14-13 home loss to BYU.

Bradford returned for the Texas game only to reinjure his shoulder that would ultimately require season-ending surgery. As the losses accrued, the Sooners were left out of the final regular season rankings for the first time since 2005.

These teams haven’t met in 25 years, but Oklahoma leads the all-time series 3-1.

Motivation levels

This is Stanford’s first bowl game since 2001 and seniors on the team who endured losing season after losing season will be eager to end their careers on a high note.

The Cardinal haven’t won a bowl game since 1996 and Jim Harbaugh will want to prove his worth in his first career bowl appearance after signing a three-year extension a few weeks ago.

“We have told our football team this is the most important game on the schedule,” Harbaugh said. “This may be the first time some people see Stanford play.”

Bob Stoops is notorious for not winning the big games and not even caring about the little games. His Sooners have earned 11 consecutive bowl berths, but have lost three straight and five of their last six.

Defensive tackle Gerald McCoy announced that he will forego his senior season and enter the draft. There are a handful of other pro prospects on the team who might not want to jeopardize their NFL careers with an injury in a game that has little meaning.

No Luck

Sensational freshman quarterback Andrew Luck will not start the bowl game after breaking his finger in Stanford’s regular season finale – an injury that required surgery.

Luck has not been ruled out for the game and returned to practice this week, but senior Tavita Pritchard will start for the Cardinal under center.

"We'll figure out if there is a role [Luck] could play in the game," Harbaugh said. "He's not been ruled out, but we're not counting on it."

In the first start of his career in 2007, Pritchard led Stanford to a 24-23 win over USC as 41-point underdogs. He regressed the next season, guiding the team to a 5-7 record while tossing only 10 touchdowns against 13 interceptions.

Tunnel Workers Union

Toby Gerhart received all the accolades (and deserved the Heisman), but he would be the first to say he couldn’t have done it without his offensive line – a unit dubbed the Tunnel Workers Union because they are blue-collar men that go to work everyday and create holes.

One member of the TWU, center Chase Beeler, attended Oklahoma his freshman year. He played in five games, starting one, but transferred to Stanford the next season due to academic reasons.

Beeler, a native of Jenks, Okla., still keeps in touch with players on the team including defensive tackles McCoy and Adrian Taylor who he will go helmet-to-helmet with during the game.

"I am going to try and cull some of that knowledge from the depths of my memory," Beeler said. "Gerald (McCoy) and I worked against each other in practice during one-on-one drills."

Gerhart, who finished tops in the nation in rushing yards (1,736) and touchdowns (26), will test his mettle against Oklahoma’s 7th-ranked rush defense (88.6 ypg). Gerhart rushed for more than 100 yards in 10 of his 12 games this year and was held to less than 90 yards only once.

Trend-setter

Stanford is 5-2 straight up and 3-4 ATS in bowl games since 1980.

The under is 8-1 in Oklahoma’s last nine December contests.

The Sooners are 4-6 in their last 10 bowl games, going 3-7 ATS during that span.


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[Udog]

NCAAF


Thursday, December 31

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Tips and Trends
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Stanford Cardinal vs. Oklahoma Sooners [CBS | 2:00 PM ET]

Stanford: This year alone, Stanford finished with a winning record and are bowling for the first time in 8 years. Combine that with the runner up Heisman finish for RB Toby Gerhart, and you have a storybook year for the Stanford Cardinal. Stanford finished the regular season 8-4 SU and 7-5 ATS. The Cardinal were 2-3 both SU and ATS away from home this year. Stanford was 2-2 ATS this season as the listed underdog, winning each of their last two games outright as 7 and 10 point underdogs. Stanford will be without their starting QB Andrew Luck, so even more emphasis will be on Gerhart. Gerhart led the nation in both rushing and rushing TDs with over 1,725 rushing YDS and 26 TDs. This Cardinal offense averaged more than 36 PPG, which ranked them 10th in the nation. The Cardinal defense has been struggling, as they've allowed 5 of their past 7 opponents to score at least 34 PTS.

Stanford is 5-1 ATS last 6 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
Over is 6-1 last 7 games as an underdog.

Key Injuries - QB Andrew Luck (finger) is out.
CB Quinn Evans (hamstring) is probable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 20

Oklahoma (-10, O/U 54.5): This is a school record 11th straight season that Oklahoma has been bowling. However, this isn't the bowl the Sooners expected to be playing in when the season began. An injury to star QB Sam Bradford has changed everything. QB Landry Jones has attempted to fill the big shoes of Bradford, but he's struggled. Jones is completing 58% of his passes and has 13 INTs as the starting QB, including a 5 INT game. WR Ryan Broyles has been a consistent receiving threat as he has 12 TDs to go with nearly 1,000 receiving YDS. The Sooners have the 7th ranked total defense in the country, as they only allow 273 YPG. The Sooners have held 3 of their past 4 games to 10 PTS or fewer, and are coming off their 3rd shutout of the season against Oklahoma St. The Sooners were 1-3 both SU and ATS this season away from home. Oklahoma is 2-3 ATS this season as a single digit favorite.

Oklahoma is 1-5 ATS last 6 Bowl games as a favorite.
Under is 11-2 last 13 games overall.

Key Injuries - DT DeMarcus Granger (back) is questionable.
OL Trent Williams (head) is probable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 28 (UNDER - Total of the Day)



Virginia Tech Hokies vs. Tennessee Volunteers [ESPN | 7:30 PM ET]

Virginia Tech (-5.5, O/U 49.5): Virginia Tech and bowl games are one in the same. The Hokies are playing in a bowl game for the 17th consecutive season, the 3rd longest active streak in the country. The Hokies ended the regular season with a record of 9-3 SU, with all 3 losses coming to ranked teams by a combined total of 18 PTS. Virginia Tech was 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS away from home this season. The Hokies went 0-2 ATS this season as a single digit favorite. QB Tyrod Taylor leads this Hokies offense with both his arm and his feet. Taylor threw for over 2,100 YDS and was also the 2nd leading rusher on the team with 344 YDS. Taylor had 17 total TDs with only 4 INTs on the season. Freshman RB Ryan Williams had an amazing year, rushing for more than 1,500 YDS and 20 TDs. The Hokies have held 4 straight opponents to 13 PTS or less and for the season are only allowing 15.8 PPG.

Virginia Tech is 8-3 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 8-2 last 10 games following a ATS win.

Key Injuries - CB Stephan Virgil (academics) is doubtful.

PROJECTED SCORE: 27 (Side of the Day)

Tennessee: What a roller coaster ride it's been for the Lane Kiffin led Volunteers. After starting the season 1-2 SU, the Volunteers have won 4 of their last 5 games to finish the season at 7-5 SU. Their most high profile game was a 2 point loss at Alabama. There have also been some high profile comments and suspensions out of the Volunteer camp. Tennessee only won 1 road game this season, but they did finish 3-1 ATS away from home. Tennessee was also 3-1 ATS as the listed underdog this season. A big reason for the Volunteers success of late is their offense. Tennessee has scored 30 PTS or more in 4 of their last 5 games. Senior RB Montario Hardesty leads the team with over 1,300 YDS rushing including 12 TDs. QB Jonathan Crompton has thrown over 2,500 YDS with 26 TDs against 12 INTs. Defensively, the Volunteers are ranked in the top 20 in the country in both PPG and YPG (21 and 308) respectively.

Tennessee is 2-6 ATS last 8 non-conference games.
Under is 9-2 last 11 games as an underdog.

Key Injuries - WR Nu'Keese Richardson (disciplinary) is out.
DB Mike Edwards (disciplinary) is out.

PROJECTED SCORE: 17


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