BOWL SYSTEMS / RUNNING DOGS + ML & RANKING SYSTEMS ( 33-14 and 23-9 LAST YEAR ) !!

[GOLDENGREEK]

** CAUTION / DISCLAIMER ** :

SYSTEMS CHANGE EACH AND EVERY YEAR

VEGAS IS VERY AWARE OF THESE SYSTEMS AND AJUSTS ACCORDINGLY

USE THIS ONLY AS A TOOL TO OUR OWN HANDICAPPING - NOT A BIBLE

LAST YEARS RESULTS DO NOT GUARENTEE THE SAME RESULTS THIS YEAR !!!


*** PLEASE LOOK THESE OVER AND DOUBLE CHECK !!!!

IF I HAVE MADE A MISTAKE ( MOST LIKELY ) PLEASE POINT IT OUT !!!!!!





gl !!

[GOLDENGREEK]

IF YOU HAVE A QUESTION OR WANT TO LOOK AT LAST YEARS RESULTS PLEASE VISIT THIS THREAD:


http://www.bettorschat.com/forums/al...take-look.html



Moneyline / Rankings etc.. System

This System went 33-14 last year !!!


** Some games overlapp and show up twice (Teams that hit in more than one system hit a high percentage last year) , other conflict and cancell each other out




2 Units-Bet the dog if the teams have exactly the same won lost record

Maryland
W Michigan
Oregon
Minnesota
Mich St
Penn St
Oklahoma




3 Units and 5 Units
Bet the team with the worst season record for 3 Units if a dog.
If that team is a favorite, play them on the money line for a risk of 5 Units:


3 UNIT PLAYS:

Bet the team with the worst season record for 3 Units if a dog.

Colo St
Memphis
So Miss
Notre Dame ----- ** WATCH THIS AS ITS CLOSE TO A PK NOW
Fla Atl
Wisky
Miami
NC St
Vandy
LSU
So Carolina
Va Tech
Mississippi
Kentucky
Ohio St
Tulsa







5 UNIT PLAYS: If that team is a favorite, play them on the money line for a risk of 5 Units


5 Unit Money Line Plays:

Wake Forest
Arizona
TCU
No Ill
Houston
Oregon St
Clemson
UCONN

2 MORE ARE QUESTIONABLE:

** Alabama ---Huge moneyline to lay 5 Units - Be Careful

** Missouri ---------- MISSOURI PLAYED AN EXTRA GAME - THEY ARE 9-4 AND NORTHWESTERN IS 9-3 - NOT SURE IF THIS SHOULD BE COUNTED





Lower Ranked Teams as a dog to higher Ranked Teams

Michigan St
Penn St
Va Tech
Mississippi
Utah
Ohio St
Oklahoma
Oregon
*** Florida ( ????? ) THESE TWO TEAMS ( OLKAHOMA / FLORIDA ) ARE EITHER HIGHER OR LOWER RANKED THAN THEIR OPPONENT DEPENDING ON WHICH POLL YOU LOOK AT





Lower Ranked Teams as a favorite vs Higher Ranked Teams

TCU
Oregon St

*** THESE TWO TEAMS BELOW ARE EITHER HIGHER OR LOWER RANKED THAN THEIR OPPONENT DEPENDING ON WHICH POLL YOU LOOK AT :

Oklahoma St ( ??? )
Missouri ( ???? )



A team not Ranked as a dog to a Ranked Team:

LSU
Tulsa



A team not Ranked that is a favorite over a Ranked Team


Arizona




Teams that hit in more than one system without opposition hit a high percentage last year. Here they are:



ARIZONA

OREGON ST

LSU

MICH ST

PENN ST

VIRGINIA TECH

MISSISSIPPI

OHIO ST

TULSA

** ??? MISSOURI ( QUESTIONABLE IF THEY BELONGED ON EITHER SYSTEM)




Games that have one system or more for each side:


Oregon ( Twice ) -Oklahoma St ( Once )
Utah ( Once) - Alabama ( Once )
Oklahoma ( Twice ) - Florida ( Once )



Running dog system coming up next !!


GL !!

[GOLDENGREEK]

RUNNING DOG SYSTEM ...23-9 LAST YEAR


This is a list of all of the best rushing teams in the bowl games. This system worked very well the last couple of years. The best scenario to look for is a team with the best rushing stats, with a good defense and getting the points etc.. This better "run" team info is based on (YPC gained vs opponents YPC allowed on offense & vice versa on defense).

The best rush teams hit at a pretty high clip of over 60%..But if you pick and choose here with the other qualifications I listed above like good defense or tougher schedules etc. then you could really clean up with this system





STOLEN / BORROWED FROM THE ORIGINATOR OF THE SYSTEM

I'm pretty much going to follow the same formula as I did last year. We had an outstanding bowl season with the running dogs. The better running teams in general were 22-10 SU and 23-9 ATS last year. But keep in mind that they aren't going to hit this well every year. In the 2006 bowl season the better running teams were 20-12 SU but only 18-14 ATS. So we have to be careful as we go, and to just remember that none of these Running Dogs are set in granite. The underdogs who had the better run numbers were 10-4 ATS last year. And 7-3 (71%) the season before. So that's why you really need to think hard before you go against a running dog. But at times we did last year. Remember the Arkansas/Missouri game. Arkansas had the much better run numbers and were the dogs in that game. But because of the other strong angles surrounding the game that went against Arkansas, I was on Missouri. So there will be exceptions to the rule. And I've already seen a couple running dogs that I will in all likihood be playing against.


Here is the list of running dogs for this year ( 10-4 ATS last year ):


Navy
Colorado St.
BYU
Notre Dame
Florida Atlantic
Wisconsin (HUGE)
La Tech
Western Michigan
Oregon (HUGE-Better defense too)
Air Force
Nebraska
Ole Miss
Kentucky
Tulsa


gl

[GOLDENGREEK]

IF ANYONE WANTS TO FIGURE OUT WHO THE BETTER RUSHING TEAM FOR EACH GAME IS REGARDLESS IF THEY ARE A FAVORITE OR A DOG

HERE IS THE SYSTEM:

HOW TO FIGURE OUT SYSTEM # 1 "RUNNING DOG "


1. (Team's offensive ypr) - (opponents this year defensive ypr allowed)


2. (Opponents this year offensive ypr) - (Team's defensive ypr)


3. Add 1 @ 2 to get teams rushing number.

4. Do same for their opponent .

5. The team with the higher number is the better rushing team.


I will do the Navy/Wake Forest game as an example.

Navy's ypr on offense is 5.4, their opponents ypr allowed is 4.7so (5.4 - 4.7 = 0.7).

Just to be clear, opponent's ypr allowed is the average of all the teams they've played this year and not the team they're currently playing.

Their opponents ypr on offense is 3.7 and Navy's ypr allowed is 3.6 so (3.7 - 3.6 = 0.1).

Navy's rushing number is (0.7 + 0.1 = 0.8).

Wake's ypr on offense is 2.9 and their opponents ypr allowed is 3.6 so (2.9 - 3.6 = -0.7).

Wake's opponents offensive ypr is 4.2 while their ypr allowed is 3.4 so (4.2 - 3.4 = 0.8).

Wake's rushing number is (-0.7 + 0.8 = 0.1). Navy (0.8) - Wake (0.1) shows navy to be the better rushing team with an 0.7 ypr advantage which is expected, the only thing keeping the number from being bigger is Wake's rush defense which only allows 3.4 ypr to teams that would normally average 4.2 ypr.

** Delete any non div. 1A teams.

[GOLDENGREEK]

Here is the list of teams that fit all systems above with no opposition

# in parenthesis is how many systems they fell under:


Colorado st ( 2 )
Memphis ( 1 )
S. Miss ( 1 )
TCU ( 1 )
NOTRE DAME ( 2 )
Flor Atl.( 2 )
Wisconsin ( 2 )
Miami ( 1 )
NC St ( 1 )
** Missou ( 2 ) questionable
Maryland ( 1 )
W. Mich ( 2 )
Oregon ( 3 )
Org st ( 2 )
Vandy ( 1 )
Minny ( 1 )
LSU ( 2 )
S. Carolina ( 1 )
Mich st ( 2 )
Penn st ( 2 )
V Tech ( 2 )
Mississippi ( 3 )
Kentucky ( 2 )
UConn ( 1 )
Ohio st ( 1 )
Tulsa ( 3 )


gl !!!!!!!!

[GOLDENGREEK]

5 unit plays: If that team is a favorite, play them on the money line for a risk of 5 units


5 unit money line plays:

Wake forest
arizona
tcu
no ill
houston
oregon st
clemson
uconn

2 more are questionable:

** alabama ---huge moneyline to lay 5 units - be careful

** missouri ---------- missouri played an extra game - they are 9-4 and northwestern is 9-3 - not sure if this should be counted

the favs with the worse record went 10-1 straight up last year



.

[GOLDENGREEK]

RUNNING DOG SYSTEM ...23-9 LAST YEAR


This is a list of all of the best rushing teams in the bowl games. This system worked very well the last couple of years. The best scenario to look for is a team with the best rushing stats, with a good defense and getting the points etc.. This better "run" team info is based on (YPC gained vs opponents YPC allowed on offense & vice versa on defense).

The best rush teams hit at a pretty high clip of over 60%..But if you pick and choose here with the other qualifications I listed above like good defense or tougher schedules etc. then you could really clean up with this system





STOLEN / BORROWED FROM THE ORIGINATOR OF THE SYSTEM

I'm pretty much going to follow the same formula as I did last year. We had an outstanding bowl season with the running dogs. The better running teams in general were 22-10 SU and 23-9 ATS last year. But keep in mind that they aren't going to hit this well every year. In the 2006 bowl season the better running teams were 20-12 SU but only 18-14 ATS. So we have to be careful as we go, and to just remember that none of these Running Dogs are set in granite. The underdogs who had the better run numbers were 10-4 ATS last year. And 7-3 (71%) the season before. So that's why you really need to think hard before you go against a running dog. But at times we did last year. Remember the Arkansas/Missouri game. Arkansas had the much better run numbers and were the dogs in that game. But because of the other strong angles surrounding the game that went against Arkansas, I was on Missouri. So there will be exceptions to the rule. And I've already seen a couple running dogs that I will in all likihood be playing against.


Here is the list of running dogs for this year ( 10-4 ATS last year ):


Navy
Colorado St.
BYU
Notre Dame
Florida Atlantic
Wisconsin (HUGE)
La Tech
Western Michigan
Oregon (HUGE-Better defense too)
Air Force
Nebraska
Ole Miss
Kentucky
Tulsa


gl

HERE ARE MY RESULTS FOR THE RUNNING DOGS

I DIFFER WITH THE ORIGINATOR OF THE SYTEM IN A THE FRESNO / COL ST GAME:




Navy +0.7
Fresno +0.6 ( Ran the numbers several times and keeps coming up Fresno)
S. Florida +0.8
BYU +0.1
Troy +1.0
TCU +0.8
N. DAME +0.2
Fla. Atl. +0.8
W. Virginia +1.8
Wisconsin + 1.5
California +1.6
La Tech +1.5
Rutgers +1.5
Missouri +1.7
Nevada +2.5
W. Mich. +1.1
Oregon +1.6
Air Force +0.2
Pitt +0.1
Boston Coll. +0.9
Kansas +0.7
Ga. Tech +0.9
Iowa +2.0
Nebraska +1.1
Georgia +1.1
USC +0.6
va. tech/Cinc. Even
Ole Miss +0.8
Kentucky +0.3
Alabama +1.5
Uconn +2.1
Texas +0.6
Tulsa +.04
Florida +1.2

Except for Fresno the results were pretty close to the previous post.



PLEASE POINT OUT ANY MISTAKES !

[FRITO]

very interesting -
I appreciate and applaud the work that you put into this.
thank you & good luck

[jmarty6969]

greek cant thank u enough buddy thanks a million

[griffey_mojo]

thanks for sharing...GL

[ICD55]

oustanding information to share with everyone.

[BigWeiner]

Good luck Greek

[Spark]

This is great info Dino ... Thanks for sharing ...

[mavskidd02]

the favs with the worse record went 10-1 straight up last year



.

anyone else find that amazing? Considering a team with a worse record would probably not be too heavy a favorite, this looks the most interesting of anything posted. Thanks GG

[DBURGH]

So is this the list of running dogs this year?? Sorry if I am being stupid here: I am assuming that I should play these games.?

Navy
Colorado St.
BYU
Notre Dame
Florida Atlantic
Wisconsin (HUGE)
La Tech
Western Michigan
Oregon (HUGE-Better defense too)
Air Force
Nebraska
Ole Miss
Kentucky
Tulsa