BOWL SYSTEMS / RUNNING DOGS + ML & RANKING SYSTEMS ( 33-14 and 23-9 LAST YEAR ) !!

[GOLDENGREEK]

here is something else that i just read....

dogs in bowl games that won the previous year are 23-12 ats, including 15-3 ats vs. an opponent that won 8 or less games last year....




Here would be the list of Dogs this year that won their bowl game last year:

Utah *
Fla Atl ----WINNER
BYU *----LOSER
ECU *
Penn St
Oregon *---WINNER
WVU *
LSU *
Tulsa *

* = opp won 8 or less games last year


2-1 SO FAR THIS YEAR

[GOLDENGREEK]

Other bowl systems / trends:


2003-04 Season
Dogs of 7 or better(meaning +8......) went 7-3 ATS 70%
Favs of 6.5 or better(meaning -6,-5.5.....) went 9-6 ATS 60%
For a total of 16-9 ATS 64% winners

2004-05 Season
Dogs of 7 or better went 7-2 ATS 78%
Favs of 6.5 or beter went 10-7 59%
For a total of 17-9 ATS 64% winners

2005-06 Season
Dogs of 7 or better went 13-1 ATS 93%
Favs of 6.5 or better went 7-5 ATS 58%
For a total of 20-6 ATS 77% winners

2006-07 Season
Dogs of 7 or better went 9-5 ATS 64%
Favs of 6.5 or better went 8-11 ATS 42%
For a total of 17-16 ATS 52% winners

2007-08 Season
Dogs of 7 or better went 7-3 ATS 70%
Favs of 6.5 or better went 15-8 ATS 65%
For a total of 23-11 ATS 68% winners

*Includes buying .5 hook either way so -7 can be +7.5 or -6.5



Wake Forest -3---- WINNER
Fresno St -3'-------LOSER
Memphis +13'--------LOSER
Arizona -3'---------WINNER
Troy -4------------LOSER
TCU -2------------LOSER
Notre Dame - 2'----WINNER
Flor ATL + 7' ----WINNER
WVU/UNC -1 -----PUSH
Florida St -5------WINNER
Miami + 9 ---------WINNER
L TECH - 2 1/2 ---- WINNER
NC St + 8 -------WINNER
NW +13'----------WINNER
Nevada -2--------LOSER
Rice -3----------WINNER
Oregon - 1 ---- WINNER
Houston -3'
Oregon St -2
BC -3 1/2
Minnesota +9
GTech -4
Iowa -3'
Clemson -2'
Penn St +9
Cincy -2'
Texas Tech -4
Mich st + 7'
ECU -2'
Utah +10'
UConn -4'
Ohio St +10
Ball St -2'
Florida -3



11-5 -1 SO FAR THIS YEAR


FAVS OR 6 OR LESS = 7-4-1
DOGS OF 7 OR MORE = 4-1

[GOLDENGREEK]

*** NEW WINNING SYSTEM ****



Here's an interesting stat for the bowl games I come accross on another board. 1-0 so far with Wake Forest winning and it has 2 more for today, So. Fla & Arizona, I was liking the Memphis & BYU. Will have to do somemore homework on these 2.

11-1 last season:
Here it is: Of the top 60 Sagarin-rated teams, FADE EVERY team ATS whose strength of schedule rating is 60 or worse unless they are facing a team whose SOS rating is even lower than theirs.

So here are the teams to take ATS this year:
1. Wake Forest win
2. South Florida win
3. Arizona win
4. TCU loss
5. Notre Dame win
6. NC State win
7. Missouri loss
8. Maryland win
9. Rice win
10. Air Force
11. Kansas
12. USC
13. Kentucky
14. Alabama
15. Connecticut
16. Ball State



7-2 THIS YEAR

[Three Jack]

Dino, you are the man...thanks for your work. EXCELLENT stuff!

[GOLDENGREEK]

Moneyline / Rankings etc.. System

This System went 33-14 last year !!!


** Some games overlapp and show up twice (Teams that hit in more than one system hit a high percentage last year) , other conflict and cancell each other out




2 Units-Bet the dog if the teams have exactly the same won lost record

THIS IS THE WEAKEST OF THE BUNCH -- WENT 2-3 LAST YEAR

Maryland ----WINNER
W Michigan---LOSER
Oregon-----WINNER
Minnesota--- LOSER
Mich St
Penn St
Oklahoma


2-2 SO FAR THIS YEAR




3 Units and 5 Units
Bet the team with the worst season record for 3 Units if a dog.
If that team is a favorite, play them on the money line for a risk of 5 Units:


THIS SYSTEM WHEN 19-7 LAST YEAR:

3 UNIT PLAYS:

Bet the team with the worst season record for 3 Units if a dog.

Colo St--- WINNER
Memphis---- LOSER
So Miss----WINNER
Fla Atl----WINNER
Wisky---LOSER
Miami---WINNER
NC St----WINNER
Vandy ---WINNER
LSU------- WINNER
So Carolina
Va Tech
Mississippi
Kentucky
Ohio St
Tulsa

7-2 SO FAR THIS YEAR






5 UNIT PLAYS: If that team is a favorite, play them on the money line for a risk of 5 Units

THIS SYSTEM WENT 10-1 LAST YEAR

5 Unit Money Line Plays:

Wake Forest ---WINNER
Arizona-----WINNER
TCU-------WINNER
Notre Dame-----WINNER
No Ill- ** became a 2 1/2 point dog ** void
Houston ----WINNER
Oregon St----WINNER
Clemson
UCONN

2 MORE ARE QUESTIONABLE:

** Alabama ---Huge moneyline to lay 5 Units - Be Careful

??????** Missouri ---------- MISSOURI PLAYED AN EXTRA GAME - THEY ARE 9-4 AND NORTHWESTERN IS 9-3 - NOT SURE IF THIS SHOULD BE COUNTED

6-0 or 6-1 depending on missouri










Lower Ranked Teams as a dog to higher Ranked Teams

THIS WENT 3-2 LAST YEAR

Oregon --- WINNER
Michigan St
Penn St
Va Tech
Mississippi
Utah
Ohio St
Oklahoma

*** Florida ( ????? ) THESE TWO TEAMS ( OLKAHOMA / FLORIDA ) ARE EITHER HIGHER OR LOWER RANKED THAN THEIR OPPONENT DEPENDING ON WHICH POLL YOU LOOK AT

1-0 SO FAR





Lower Ranked Teams as a favorite vs Higher Ranked Teams

THIS WENT 3-0 LAST YEAR

TCU---------LOSER
Oregon St -----WINNER


1-1





A team not Ranked as a dog to a Ranked Team:

THIS WENT 6-1 LAST YEAR - NOT AS MANY OPPORTUNITIES THIS YEAR cry1

LSU ---- WINNER
Tulsa


1-0






A team not Ranked that is a favorite over a Ranked Team

THIS WENT 1-1 LAST YEAR

Arizona --- WINNER

1-0





Teams that hit in more than one system without opposition hit a high percentage last year. Here they are:



ARIZONA --- WINNER

OREGON ST---WINNER

LSU----WINNER

MICH ST

PENN ST

VIRGINIA TECH

MISSISSIPPI

OHIO ST

TULSA

** ??? MISSOURI ( QUESTIONABLE IF THEY BELONGED ON EITHER SYSTEM)


3-0 THIS YEAR




TOTAL IS 19-5 OR 19-6 DEPENDING ON MIZZOU

[GOLDENGREEK]

RUNNING DOG SYSTEM ...23-9 LAST YEAR


This is a list of all of the best rushing teams in the bowl games. This system worked very well the last couple of years. The best scenario to look for is a team with the best rushing stats, with a good defense and getting the points etc.. This better "run" team info is based on (YPC gained vs opponents YPC allowed on offense & vice versa on defense).

The best rush teams hit at a pretty high clip of over 60%..But if you pick and choose here with the other qualifications I listed above like good defense or tougher schedules etc. then you could really clean up with this system





STOLEN / BORROWED FROM THE ORIGINATOR OF THE SYSTEM

I'm pretty much going to follow the same formula as I did last year. We had an outstanding bowl season with the running dogs. The better running teams in general were 22-10 SU and 23-9 ATS last year. But keep in mind that they aren't going to hit this well every year. In the 2006 bowl season the better running teams were 20-12 SU but only 18-14 ATS. So we have to be careful as we go, and to just remember that none of these Running Dogs are set in granite. The underdogs who had the better run numbers were 10-4 ATS last year. And 7-3 (71%) the season before. So that's why you really need to think hard before you go against a running dog. But at times we did last year. Remember the Arkansas/Missouri game. Arkansas had the much better run numbers and were the dogs in that game. But because of the other strong angles surrounding the game that went against Arkansas, I was on Missouri. So there will be exceptions to the rule. And I've already seen a couple running dogs that I will in all likihood be playing against.


Here is the list of running dogs for this year ( 10-4 ATS last year ):


Navy --------------LOSER
Colorado St.--------WINNER
BYU----------------LOSER
Notre Dame--------WINNER
Florida Atlantic-----WINNER
Wisconsin ---------LOSER
La Tech------------WINNER
Western Michi------LOSER
Oregon----- ------WINNER
Air Force----------LOSER
Nebraska
Ole Miss
Kentucky
Tulsa


5-5 SO FAR THIS YEAR COMPARED TO 10-4 LAST YEAR

[GOLDENGREEK]

here is something else that i just read....

dogs in bowl games that won the previous year are 23-12 ats, including 15-3 ats vs. an opponent that won 8 or less games last year....




Here would be the list of Dogs this year that won their bowl game last year:

Utah *
Fla Atl ----WINNER
BYU *----LOSER
ECU *
Penn St
Oregon *---WINNER
WVU *----LOSER
LSU *---- WINNER
Tulsa *

* = opp won 8 or less games last year


3-2 SO FAR THIS YEAR

[GOLDENGREEK]

Other bowl systems / trends:


2003-04 Season
Dogs of 7 or better(meaning +8......) went 7-3 ATS 70%
Favs of 6.5 or better(meaning -6,-5.5.....) went 9-6 ATS 60%
For a total of 16-9 ATS 64% winners

2004-05 Season
Dogs of 7 or better went 7-2 ATS 78%
Favs of 6.5 or beter went 10-7 59%
For a total of 17-9 ATS 64% winners

2005-06 Season
Dogs of 7 or better went 13-1 ATS 93%
Favs of 6.5 or better went 7-5 ATS 58%
For a total of 20-6 ATS 77% winners

2006-07 Season
Dogs of 7 or better went 9-5 ATS 64%
Favs of 6.5 or better went 8-11 ATS 42%
For a total of 17-16 ATS 52% winners

2007-08 Season
Dogs of 7 or better went 7-3 ATS 70%
Favs of 6.5 or better went 15-8 ATS 65%
For a total of 23-11 ATS 68% winners

*Includes buying .5 hook either way so -7 can be +7.5 or -6.5



Wake Forest -3---- WINNER
Fresno St -3'-------LOSER
Memphis +13'--------LOSER
Arizona -3'---------WINNER
Troy -4------------LOSER
TCU -2------------LOSER
Notre Dame - 2'----WINNER
Flor ATL + 7' ----WINNER
WVU/UNC -1 -----PUSH
Florida St -5------WINNER
Miami + 9 ---------WINNER
L TECH - 2 1/2 ---- WINNER
NC St + 8 -------WINNER
NW +13'----------WINNER
Nevada -2--------LOSER
Rice -3----------WINNER
Oregon - 1 ---- WINNER
Houston -3'----WINNER
Oregon St -2-----WINNER
Vndy + 7-----WINNER
Minnesota +9----LOSER
GTech -4----LOSER
Iowa -3'
Clemson -2'
Penn St +9
Cincy -2'
Texas Tech -4
Mich st + 7'
ECU -2'
Utah +10'
UConn -4'
Ohio St +10
Ball St -2'
Florida -3



14-7 -1 SO FAR THIS YEAR


FAVS OR 6 OR LESS = 8-5-1
DOGS OF 7 OR MORE = 5-2

[GOLDENGREEK]

Here's an interesting stat for the bowl games I come accross on another board. 1-0 so far with Wake Forest winning and it has 2 more for today, So. Fla & Arizona, I was liking the Memphis & BYU. Will have to do somemore homework on these 2.

11-1 last season:
Here it is: Of the top 60 Sagarin-rated teams, FADE EVERY team ATS whose strength of schedule rating is 60 or worse unless they are facing a team whose SOS rating is even lower than theirs.

So here are the teams to take ATS this year:
1. Wake Forest win
2. South Florida win
3. Arizona win
4. TCU loss
5. Notre Dame win
6. NC State win
7. Missouri loss
8. Maryland win
9. Rice win
10. Air Force -loss
11. Kansas --win
12. USC
13. Kentucky
14. Alabama
15. Connecticut
16. Ball State



8-3 THIS YEAR

[GOLDENGREEK]

update starts at post # 50

[jcheckers]

GG Thanks for all the hard work you've put in
on this thread and the updates!!

[packer34]

Any system like this for the NFL playoffs? Looks like the system is doing quite well for the Bowl games. Thx for the info Greek!

[GOLDENGREEK]

any system like this for the nfl playoffs? Looks like the system is doing quite well for the bowl games. Thx for the info greek!

there are some "trends" but the nfl is a diffrent animal

[GOLDENGREEK]

Moneyline / Rankings etc.. System

This System went 33-14 last year !!!


** Some games overlapp and show up twice (Teams that hit in more than one system hit a high percentage last year) , other conflict and cancell each other out




2 Units-Bet the dog if the teams have exactly the same won lost record

THIS IS THE WEAKEST OF THE BUNCH -- WENT 2-3 LAST YEAR

Maryland ----WINNER
W Michigan---LOSER
Oregon-----WINNER
Minnesota--- LOSER
Mich St ---- LOSER
Penn St----- LOSER
Oklahoma


2-4 SO FAR THIS YEAR




3 Units and 5 Units
Bet the team with the worst season record for 3 Units if a dog.
If that team is a favorite, play them on the money line for a risk of 5 Units:


THIS SYSTEM WHEN 19-7 LAST YEAR:

3 UNIT PLAYS:

Bet the team with the worst season record for 3 Units if a dog.

Colo St--- WINNER
Memphis---- LOSER
So Miss----WINNER
Fla Atl----WINNER
Wisky---LOSER
Miami---WINNER
NC St----WINNER
Vandy ---WINNER
LSU------- WINNER
So Carolina -LOSER
Va Tech--- WINNER
Mississippi - -WINNER
Kentucky---WINNER
Ohio St
Tulsa

10-3 SO FAR THIS YEAR






5 UNIT PLAYS: If that team is a favorite, play them on the money line for a risk of 5 Units

THIS SYSTEM WENT 10-1 LAST YEAR

5 Unit Money Line Plays:

Wake Forest ---WINNER
Arizona-----WINNER
TCU-------WINNER
Notre Dame-----WINNER
No Ill- ** became a 2 1/2 point dog ** void
Houston ----WINNER
Oregon St----WINNER
Clemson----- LOSER
UCONN

2 MORE ARE QUESTIONABLE:

** Alabama ---Huge moneyline to lay 5 Units - Be Careful

??????** Missouri ---------- MISSOURI PLAYED AN EXTRA GAME - THEY ARE 9-4 AND NORTHWESTERN IS 9-3 - NOT SURE IF THIS SHOULD BE COUNTED

6-1 or 6-2 depending on missouri










Lower Ranked Teams as a dog to higher Ranked Teams

THIS WENT 3-2 LAST YEAR

Oregon --- WINNER
Michigan St--LOSER
Penn St---LOSER
Va Tech---WINNER
Mississippi -WINNER
Utah----WINNER
Ohio St
Oklahoma

*** Florida ( ????? ) THESE TWO TEAMS ( OLKAHOMA / FLORIDA ) ARE EITHER HIGHER OR LOWER RANKED THAN THEIR OPPONENT DEPENDING ON WHICH POLL YOU LOOK AT

5-2 SO FAR





Lower Ranked Teams as a favorite vs Higher Ranked Teams

THIS WENT 3-0 LAST YEAR

TCU---------LOSER
Oregon St -----WINNER


1-1





A team not Ranked as a dog to a Ranked Team:

THIS WENT 6-1 LAST YEAR - NOT AS MANY OPPORTUNITIES THIS YEAR cry1

LSU ---- WINNER
Tulsa


1-0






A team not Ranked that is a favorite over a Ranked Team

THIS WENT 1-1 LAST YEAR

Arizona --- WINNER

1-0





Teams that hit in more than one system without opposition hit a high percentage last year. Here they are:



ARIZONA --- WINNER

OREGON ST---WINNER

LSU----WINNER

MICH ST---LOSER

PENN ST---LOSER

VIRGINIA TECH----WINNER

MISSISSIPPI----WINNER

OHIO ST

TULSA

** ??? MISSOURI ( QUESTIONABLE IF THEY BELONGED ON EITHER SYSTEM)


3-2 THIS YEAR




TOTAL IS 26-11 OR 26-12 DEPENDING ON MIZZOU

[GOLDENGREEK]

RUNNING DOG SYSTEM ...23-9 LAST YEAR


This is a list of all of the best rushing teams in the bowl games. This system worked very well the last couple of years. The best scenario to look for is a team with the best rushing stats, with a good defense and getting the points etc.. This better "run" team info is based on (YPC gained vs opponents YPC allowed on offense & vice versa on defense).

The best rush teams hit at a pretty high clip of over 60%..But if you pick and choose here with the other qualifications I listed above like good defense or tougher schedules etc. then you could really clean up with this system





STOLEN / BORROWED FROM THE ORIGINATOR OF THE SYSTEM

I'm pretty much going to follow the same formula as I did last year. We had an outstanding bowl season with the running dogs. The better running teams in general were 22-10 SU and 23-9 ATS last year. But keep in mind that they aren't going to hit this well every year. In the 2006 bowl season the better running teams were 20-12 SU but only 18-14 ATS. So we have to be careful as we go, and to just remember that none of these Running Dogs are set in granite. The underdogs who had the better run numbers were 10-4 ATS last year. And 7-3 (71%) the season before. So that's why you really need to think hard before you go against a running dog. But at times we did last year. Remember the Arkansas/Missouri game. Arkansas had the much better run numbers and were the dogs in that game. But because of the other strong angles surrounding the game that went against Arkansas, I was on Missouri. So there will be exceptions to the rule. And I've already seen a couple running dogs that I will in all likihood be playing against.


Here is the list of running dogs for this year ( 10-4 ATS last year ):


Navy --------------LOSER
Colorado St.--------WINNER
BYU----------------LOSER
Notre Dame--------WINNER
Florida Atlantic-----WINNER
Wisconsin ---------LOSER
La Tech------------WINNER
Western Michi------LOSER
Oregon----- ------WINNER
Air Force----------LOSER
Nebraska ---------WINNER
Ole Miss----------WINNER
Kentucky--------WINNER
Tulsa


8-5 SO FAR THIS YEAR COMPARED TO 10-4 LAST YEAR