Big Brown will win the Preakness, not the Belmont

[Kaptain]

frankb03

I'm 48. I haven't seen a horse this dominant since Spectacular Bid in 1979. In the 70s we were lucky. We had 4 superstars from 73 to 79 including 3 in a row from 77 to 79.

he reminds me of "Secretariat"......it's his to lose....this horse is awesome, and couple it with his Jockey Desormeaux, who says it's the finest horse he EVER rode, and they'll be tough to beat.....

GG---thanks for the article

[WayneChung]

JUST WATCHED THE RACE ON YOUTUBE THE ONLY QUESTION I HAVE IS WHY DID HE NOT RUN TODAY OR IN THE DERBY.NOT TRYNG TO BE A SMART ASS JUST DONT KNOW WHY IF HE IS THIS GREAT DID HE NOT RUN IN THE FIRST 2 LEGS OF THE TRIPLE CROWN

the timing of young horses is a very fickle thing,they broke his maiden,then sent him to belmont to prep for the belmont stakes,but one thing is for sure-they were pointing casino drive for the belmont stakes,i was very high on this horse but like the other guys now,the preakness took nothing out of brown,and jockey kent d. does not throw a lot of verbal garbage out there,he has ridden both horses and commented yesterday that he has never rode a better horse in his life than big brown and said he never had to ask for a thing from the horse when they turned for home-THATS SCARY // i may have 10 bucks across going but casino drive needs to head back to japan-the purses are bigger oversea anyway-he will be sniffing big browns butt when they cross the finish line !!

[WayneChung]

bump

[TheRook]

i think that taking your bankroll into that race you HAVE to put money on both him winning AND losing. The pure value of another horse beating him is too much to pass up. ANYTHING can happen.

I do not think fatigue will be a factor, Sunday was a walk in the park and very little was asked of Big Brown. He should win this very easily. However as a gambler, I will be taking my chances with some other horses to beat him out and hope for a nice price.

just my two cents

[GrandPa]

With prohibitive faves in the horses, you have to consider alternative betting methods if you want to make any real money.

In the Preakness, Big Brown paid 2.40 2.60 2.40, so place bets were actually the best reward on normal tickets. Quite simply, the amount of money one would have to wager on a WPS ticket to make any significant profit is exorbitant. Anything other than a win and you lose plenty.


Exotics wagering is not even advisable unless it is limited to a few horse combos.

Since there are about 350+ horse races every day Thurs-Sun, and 200 or more on the other days, I treat it like every other race. Its Ok to watch as a fan, and look for value elsewhere.

[frankb03]

In the Preakness, Big Brown paid 2.40 2.60 2.40, so place bets were actually the best reward on normal tickets. Quite simply, the amount of money one would have to wager on a WPS ticket to make any significant profit is exorbitant. Anything other than a win and you lose plenty.

The place and show payoffs were that high because Macho again was 40-1 and Icabad Crane was 22-1. The 2nd and 3rd choice ran out of the money.

At Belmont assuming Big Brown wins he'll probably pay 2.20 2.10 2.10

It'll be a bridge jumpers delight.

[kbsooner21]

The place and show payoffs were that high because Macho again was 40-1 and Icabad Crane was 22-1. The 2nd and 3rd choice ran out of the money.

At Belmont assuming Big Brown wins he'll probably pay 2.20 2.10 2.10

It'll be a bridge jumpers delight.

So if you bet Big Brown $100 to win, you'd only return $120 right?

[GrandPa]

So if you bet Big Brown $100 to win, you'd only return $120 right?

$110

[kbsooner21]

$110

Right, cause it pays $.20 on every $2 wagered. I'm picking this up slowly but surely Thanks Gpa!

[griswold]

What people who bet 1-19 shots always forget is all the "stuff" that can happen in a horse race.

Remember War Emblem in the Belmont? He stumbled out of the gate?

Riders get thrown. Horses get blocked. Horses get hurt. (Charismatic got hurt in the stretch of his Belmont.) Horses slam into other horses and get disqualified.

The best horse doesn't always win. That being said, I give Big Brown the best chance to pull this off since Spectacular Bid.

[shorty3830]

big brown

bridge jumping........i want to say that when war pass lost in tampa, there was a bridge jumper and the horses that won and placed paid like $18 to show.....i dont get it, like everyone said, so many things can happen in a horse race to cause the horse to lose...

in big brown's case, i would imagine he is either coming in first or last.............i try not to fall victim to hype and craziness but this horse won the florida derby from the 12 post, the kentucky derby from the 20 post (unthinkable) and in the preakness, when KD pushed go, that horse accelerated effortlessly and went from 2 back to 5 in front in seconds

i watched the peter pan and as impressive as casino drive was, he was used, AND had a rabbit set the race up for him, big brown hasnt even been touched yet and after the preakness, he looked like he could run another 2 miles

[griswold]

Shorty,

One horse paid $60 to show in the Tampa race! Nearly $800,000 was bet on war Pass to show and only a few thousand on the other horses.

Whenever a bridge jumping situation occurs, I bet several other horses in the show pool. It's a low risk bet that can pay huge money if the big favorite falters.

[shorty3830]

yeah

Gris, yeah, I knew it was some ridiculous amount. The only thing I would dispute on this thread is that one person pointed out how many horse races there were every day and he didn't like to bet on the big races for lack of value

I did have the pick 4 on saturday and the $1 paid $590........i dont think you get $590 on a pick 4 with a 1/5, 9/5 and 3/1 unless the pool is substantial , granted the 2nd leg was 19/1, but whereas there is no win value on that horse, i think there is more value in the exotics in the big races

shorty

[WayneChung]

Gris, yeah, I knew it was some ridiculous amount. The only thing I would dispute on this thread is that one person pointed out how many horse races there were every day and he didn't like to bet on the big races for lack of value

I did have the pick 4 on saturday and the $1 paid $590........i dont think you get $590 on a pick 4 with a 1/5, 9/5 and 3/1 unless the pool is substantial , granted the 2nd leg was 19/1, but whereas there is no win value on that horse, i think there is more value in the exotics in the big races

shorty

the exotics are great on these big days,lots of public money that normally is not available at the track makes for some great betting opportunities...

[GrandPa]

Bridge jumping....

Gotta tell a story about a race I was fortunate to be on the right side by picking the wrong horse. 2000 race at Gulfstream, I'm playing via simulcast at Aqueduct. Race is either 1 3/4 or 2 mi, some kind of freak rare distance, and there is a major favorite going off at 1/5 or 1/2, can't recall. Anyway I took the third betting choice at $10 WPS, and sat back for the marathon.

Gates open, and the fave is going hard, being pressed by a longshot throughout. In stretch, both tire badly,miss the board, and my horse comes 3rd. I'm thinking I'll be happy to make a couple of dollars, since I have $30 invested.

Board post something like: ( I am going on memory, and let's say it was 1-2-3.

1 $10.00 25.00 54.00
2 27.00 52.40
3 48.00

WOW

Never seen a board like it ever or since. My $10 show ticket paid $248.00 for net of $218. NICE