Wednesday Trends and Indexes 03/26

[Udog]

NCAAB
Dunkel


Bradley at Virginia
The Braves staged a big comeback at home to knock off Ohio their last time out, but have dropped four of their last five away from home. Tonight they face a Virginia team that has won three straight at home and four of its last five. The Cavaliers are the pick (-5) according to Dunkel, which has Virginia favored by 7 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Virginia (-5). Here are all of today's games.

WEDNESDAY, MARCH 26

Game 525-526: Dayton at Ohio State
Dunkel Ratings: Dayton 62.021; Ohio State 72.141
Dunkel Line: Ohio State by 10
Vegas Line: Ohio State by 8
Dunkel Pick: Ohio State (-8)

Game 527-528: Mississippi at Virginia Tech
Dunkel Ratings: Mississippi 63.151; Virginia Tech 72.837
Dunkel Line: Virginia Tech by 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Virginia Tech by 8
Dunkel Pick: Virginia Tech (-8)

Game 533-534: Bradley at Virginia
Dunkel Ratings: Bradley 61.950; Virginia 69.429
Dunkel Line: Virginia by 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Virginia by 5
Dunkel Pick: Virginia (-5)

Game 535-536: Houston at Tulsa
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 62.716; Tulsa 67.957
Dunkel Line: Tulsa by 5
Vegas Line: Tulsa by 3 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tulsa (-3 1/2)

[Udog]

NHL
Hot Lines


Wednesday, March 26

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Ice picks: Wednesday's best NHL bets
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Chicago vs. Columbus (-110, 5.5)

Even if you believe the Blackhawks don't have a chance to make the playoffs, statistically they're still alive. They are six points back with six games to play with a game in hand on the eighth-place Colorado Avalanche.

But if you think that's a pipe dream, at least one guy has a reason to play for Chicago. Patrick Kane is trailing Niklas Backstrom of the Capitals by one point in the rookie scoring race. Kane also has one extra game to work with, so tonight is big with Washington idle.

Kane picked up a goal and an assist in his last game against St. Louis and he now has six points in his last five. The Blackhawks should want to pull through for their 163-pound rookie who leads the team in points and is a big reason why they're still even being whispered about in playoff discussions.

Pick: Chicago -110


Vancouver vs. Colorado (-190, 5.5)

The Canucks are a team that like their rest. You may have noticed on our matchup pages that they are just 7-7 on the puckline (hockey's 1 1/2-goal pointspread) on zero days' rest this season, but there's an even worse trend.

Vancouver is a costly 1-7 straight up in its last eight games when it has played the night before. Last night the Canucks dropped a 3-2 heartbreaker to Calgary after jumping out to a 2-0 lead in the first period.

These two teams are in a desperate fight to hang on to the last two playoff positions in the West with 86 points apiece, so Vancouver knows how costly last night's loss was.

Pick: Colorado -190

[Udog]

NCAAB
Tips and Trends - Sweet Sixteen


Thursday, March 27

West Region - US Airways Arena (Phoenix, AZ)

#7 West Virginia vs. #3 Xavier [CBS | 7:10 PM ET]

West Virginia (-1, O/U 135.5): The Mountaineers have bettors believing in them again, much like they did in the Big East Tournament before bowing out to Georgetown. That's the main reason they are favored in this spot, as their 2 wins are viewed as more impressive than Xavier's, beating perennial powers Arizona and Duke to advance to the Sweet 16. However, the most impressive aspect of West Virginia's success in the Big Dance so far may be the fact that the team has stepped up in spite of star Joe Alexander's mediocre play. Alexander has averaged 18 points on 32 percent shooting (11-of-34), but it hasn't mattered.

The OVER is 7-2 in West Virginia's last 9 games overall.

Key Injuries - NONE

PROJECTED SCORE: 68

Xavier: The Musketeers are an unlikely underdog here as one of the top two remaining seeds in the West Region, winning and covering each of their first 2 games. However, skeptics still remember 2 losses to St. Joe's before the Big Dance and wonder how the Atlantic 10's best team will perform against one of the beasts from the Big East. One thing to consider if this game is close is free-throw shooting, as Xavier and North Carolina are the only 2 teams left in the Sweet 16 field who shoot 75 percent or better from the charity stripe.

The OVER is 7-2 in Xavier's last 9 neutral site games.

Key Injuries - NONE

PROJECTED SCORE: 67




#12 Western Kentucky vs. #1 UCLA [CBS | 9:40 PM ET]

Western Kentucky: The Hilltoppers are in the Sweet 16 thanks to seniors Courtney Lee and Ty Rogers, who hit the game-winning 3-pointer to beat Drake in the first round. Lee has NBA talent and decided to return to Western Kentucky for his senior year to take care of some unfinished business. Head coach Darrin Horn got fired up after beating San Diego and praised Lee, the Sun Belt Conference Player of the Year. “Maybe now all of you can stop talking about, has Courtney stepped up? Did he have his ‘A’ game?” Horn said. “The kid won for us whether he scored 15 or 30. What about the block he had against Drake late in the game? What about the steal he had (against San Diego)? The kid’s a tremendous player, he’s got a great heart, and we would not be here without him, period.”

Western Kentucky is 8-0 ATS in its last 8 neutral site games.
Western Kentucky is 7-0 ATS in its last 7 games overall.
The OVER is 13-4-1 in Western Kentucky's last 18 neutral site games.

Key Injuries - NONE

PROJECTED SCORE: 60

UCLA (-12.5, O/U 133): Some insiders believe the Bruins got the scare they needed in the second round win over Texas A&M to wake up and finish a strong charge to the Final Four. Of UCLA's last 6 games - all wins - 4 were decided by 3 points or less. The other 2 wins were decided by a combined 63 points, so you can understand the comparison to a sleeping giant here. The Bruins were able to get by the Aggies mainly on the offensive contributions of Kevin Love and Darren Collison, who together scored 40 of the team's 51 points. They will need better balance the rest of the way.

UCLA is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games overall.
The UNDER is 9-4 in UCLA's last 13 neutral site games.

Key Injuries - NONE

PROJECTED SCORE: 73




East Region - Charlotte Bobcats Arena (Charlotte, NC)

#4 Washington State vs. #1 North Carolina [CBS | 7:27 PM ET]

Washington State: The Cougars have won 2 straight NCAA Tournament games for the first time since 1941, and they had done so by playing stifling defense. They have surrendered a combined 81 points in the first 2 games, the lowest amount to start the tourney since 1949. While the team has lost all 25 of its previous meetings with the #1 team in the nation, those were all Pac-10 schools. The key for Washington State will be to limit North Carolina's Tyler HanXXXough after holding Notre Dame's Luke Harangody to just 10 points on 3-of-17 shooting.

The UNDER is 7-3 in Washington State's last 10 games overall.

Key Injuries - NONE

PROJECTED SCORE: 73 (OVER - Total Play of the Day)

North Carolina (-7.5, O/U 142.5): The Tar Heels would love to dictate the tempo of this game after becoming the first team since 1990 to score more than 100 points in their first 2 games of the Big Dance. Whether they will be able to accomplish that or not remains to be seen. They failed to cover 3 straight games and 5 of 6 before the NCAA Tournament, scoring 90 points or less in each, and they did not top the 80-point mark in their 2 losses.

North Carolina is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games vs. Pac-10.
The UNDER is 8-1 in North Carolina's last 9 games vs. Pac-10.

Key Injuries - NONE

PROJECTED SCORE: 81




#3 Louisville vs. #2 Tennessee [CBS | 9:57 PM ET]

Louisville (-2.5, O/U 146): The Cardinals have been one of the most impressive teams in the NCAA Tournament so far thanks to tremendous depth and defense. They led by as many as 35 points in a second-round win over Oklahoma with 11 difference players scoring, 10 of which got on the stat sheet in the first half. The last time Louisville advanced to the Sweet 16 under head coach Rick Pitino, the team made it all the way to the Final Four. Insiders believe this squad is even more talented and could give top seed North Carolina an epic battle for the right to advance to San Antonio on Saturday.

Louisville is 11-2 SU & ATS in its last 13 games overall.
The UNDER is 10-3 in Louisville's last 13 games vs. SEC.

Key Injuries - NONE

PROJECTED SCORE: 76 (Side Play of the Day)

Tennessee: Head coach Bruce Pearl has started 6-foot-7 J.P. Prince at point guard in the first 2 games of the NCAA Tournament, replacing Ramar Smith. “The deal is this: I just thought that the point guard play we were getting wasn’t going to win a national championship,” Pearl said. “So, if we make the decision and it doesn’t pay off and I’m sitting here in front of you and explaining why I made that choice and we lost the game, I could go to bed going, ‘It’s OK.’” Smith has totaled just 8 points combined in the 2 games off the bench - nearly half his season average - while leading scorer Chris Lofton has totaled 14, making only 4-of-18 shots (22 percent) from the field while dealing with an ankle injury.

Tennessee is 1-3 ATS in its last 4 games overall.
The OVER is 13-5 in Tennessee's last 18 neutral site games.

Key Injuries - G Chris Lofton (15.5 ppg; leg) is expected to play.

PROJECTED SCORE: 70




Friday, March 28


Midwest Region - Ford Field (Detroit, MI)

#10 Davidson vs. #3 Wisconsin [CBS | 7:10 PM ET]

Davidson: The Wildcats have been one of the true Cinderellas in the Big Dance along with Western Kentucky, led by super sophomore Stephen Curry. The son of former NBA sharpshooter Dell Curry has totaled 55 points combined in the second halves of the first 2 games and proven to be the most valuable player of any team so far. When he struggled in the first half against Georgetown, Davidson trailed by 11 points at the break. But when he caught fire, the Wildcats were able to overcome a 16-point deficit.

Davidson is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 neutral site games.
The UNDER is 9-3-1 in Davidson's last 13 games as an underdog.

Key Injuries - NONE

PROJECTED SCORE: 60

Wisconsin (-5, O/U 126.5): The Badgers have the advantage of playing in Big Ten country in Detroit while Davidson won't be playing in their own backyard anymore. That combined with Wisconsin stopper Michael Flowers' ability to shut down opposing guards (he held Michigan State Drew Neitzel to 9-of-28 shooting this season) makes insiders believe the clock may indeed strike midnight for the Wildcats in the Sweet 16.

Wisconsin is 10-2 ATS during its 12-game winning streak.
The UNDER is 20-7 in Wisconsin's last 27 games overall.

Key Injuries - NONE

PROJECTED SCORE: 66




#12 Villanova vs. #1 Kansas [CBS | 9:40 PM ET]

Villanova: Villanova is playing like a team that could pull a Sweet 16 upset. The key to the Wildcats first two tournament wins has been consistency on both sides of the ball. ‘Nova is shooting 51.8 percent from the field in the tournament, while holding its opposition to just 37 percent. The Wildcats have also been surprisingly strong on the boards. Despite fielding a small front line, Villanova outrebounded Clemson and Siena 73-64. Overall, the Wildcats are playing well in every area and could prove to be a tough test for No. 1 seed Kansas.

Villanova is 5-1 SU & ATS in its last 6 games overall.
The UNDER is 10-3-1 in Villanova's last 14 games overall.

Key Injuries - C Casiem Drummond (4.9 ppg; broken ankle) will miss the rest of the season.

PROJECTED SCORE: 67 (OVER - Total Play of the Day)

Kansas (-11.5, O/U 141.5): The Jayhawks have been an offensive machine so far in the tournament, scoring a combined 160 points and shooting a red-hot 54.1 and 58 percent in wins over Portland State and UNLV. One of the reasons for Kansas’ high offensive output is that they have done an excellent job protecting the basketball. The Jayhawks only have 21 turnovers in two games. That’s an area where Kansas has a big advantage over Villanova. The Wildcats have turned the ball over 33 times in their 2 tournament games.

Kansas is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games overall.
The UNDER is 6-2 in Villanova's last 8 neutral site games.

Key Injuries - NONE

PROJECTED SCORE: 79




South Region - Reliant Arena (Houston, TX)

#3 Stanford vs. #2 Texas [CBS | 7:27 PM ET]

Stanford: Cardinal head coach Trent Johnson - the Pac-10's Coach of the Year - plans on staying on the bench in this game after getting ejected with 2 technicals in the first half against Marquette. “He might be more conscious of reaching that limit with the refs but I don’t think he’ll be any different in his approach,” Stanford point guard Mitch Johnson said. “Obviously he knows people are watching him and the past stays with you.” The team is 4-1 on neutral courts this season, with the only loss coming to UCLA in the Pac-10 Tournament title game. However, Texas will be playing close to home in Houston - just like the Bruins did back in LA.

Stanford is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games overall.
The UNDER is 9-1 in Stanford's last 10 non-conference games.
The OVER is 8-2 in Stanford's last 10 NCAA Tournament games.

Key Injuries - NONE

PROJECTED SCORE: 67

Texas (-1.5, O/U 135.5): The Longhorns can look at Marquette's success against Stanford last Saturday as a blueprint for this Sweet 16 matchup. While the Cardinal certainly has an advantage inside with the 7-foot Lopez brothers, Texas will counter with arguably the best backcourt in the country. Insiders believe guards D.J. Augustin and A.J. Abrams are much more talented offensively than Marquette's guards and will likely be the difference in this game.

Texas is 2-5-1 ATS in its last 8 games overall.
Texas is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games vs. Pac-10.

Key Injuries - NONE

PROJECTED SCORE: 68




#5 Michigan State vs. #1 Memphis [CBS | 9:57 PM ET]

Michigan State: People close to the Michigan State team feel this could be a dangerous game for the Spartans. Michigan State lives and dies by its outside shooters G Drew Neitzel, F Raymont Morgan and G Kalin Lucas. Even though the Spartans are a good offensive rebounding team they’ll be in trouble if their shots aren’t falling. Michigan State doesn’t play good transition defense and it struggles pressuring athletic guards. If the Spartans aren’t hitting from the outside, it will allow Memphis to get out and run and that could lead to a long night for Michigan State fans.

Michigan State is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games overall.
The OVER is 6-2 in Michigan State's last 8 Friday games.

Key Injuries - NONE

PROJECTED SCORE: 64

Memphis (-4.5, O/U 134.5): Sooner or later, poor free throw shooting is going to catch up with the Tigers. Memphis was in control against Mississippi State but constant misses at the line inexplicably gave the Bulldogs a chance to tie the game in the final seconds. Overall, Memphis shot a laughable 46.9 percent at the charity stripe, including just 5-of-12 in the final 48 seconds to keep Mississippi State alive.

Memphis is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games overall.

Key Injuries - NONE

PROJECTED SCORE: 71 (Side Play of the Day)