Sunday Trends and Indexes 11/11

[pm530]

Trends and Indexes
Sunday, November 11

Good Luck on day #315 of 2007!

NOTE:
As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.

[pm530]

National Football League - Dunkel Index

NFL
Dunkel Index


Denver at Kansas City
The Chiefs have struggled to generate much offense in the first half of the season and come into this contest ranked 29th in the league in scoring (15.5 ppg) and 30th in total offense (286.3 ypg). That doesn't look to improve much without RB Larry Johnson, who is likely to miss Sunday's game with a sprained foot. But despite the problems, Kansas City finds itself tied for first place in the AFC West with San Diego and a chance to move into first outright. If any team was supposed to challenge the Chargers, it was the Broncos. But Denver is reeling right now and has lost five of its last six, including last weekend's 44-7 blowout in Detroit. QB Jay Cutler was carted off the field with a badly bruised leg, which at a minimum should affect his mobility on Sunday. RB Travis Henry also sat out the fourth quarter with a knee injury. The home team has won the last nine straight and the Chiefs look like a good pick to make it 10 straight and cover the line (-4) according to Dunkel, which has KC favored by 12 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-4). Here are all of this week's picks.

SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 11

Game 207-208: Jacksonville at Tennessee
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 133.690; Tennessee 135.076
Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 1 1/2; 36
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 4 1/2; No Total
Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (+4 1/2); N/A

Game 209-210: Denver at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 121.224; Kansas City 133.774
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 12 1/2; 32
Vegas Line: Kansas City by 4; No Total
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-4); N/A

Game 211-212: Buffalo at Miami
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 130.856; Miami 123.412
Dunkel Line: Buffalo by 7 1/2; 43
Vegas Line: Buffalo by 3; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (-3); Over

Game 213-214: Cleveland at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 126.240; Pittsburgh 142.548
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 16; 51
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 9; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-9); Over

Game 215-216: St. Louis at New Orleans
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 113.977; New Orleans 136.425
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 22 1/2; 43
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 11 1/2; 46
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-11 1/2); Under

Game 217-218: Atlanta at Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 126.572; Carolina 128.820
Dunkel Line: Carolina by 2; 33
Vegas Line: Carolina by 4 1/2; 36 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+4 1/2); Under

Game 219-220: Philadelphia at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 128.495; Washington 128.231
Dunkel Line: Even; 43
Vegas Line: Washington by 3; 38
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+3); Over

Game 221-222: Minnesota at Green Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 132.195; Green Bay 134.370
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 2; 44
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 6 1/2; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+6 1/2); Over

Game 223-224: Cincinnati at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 127.588; Baltimore 126.396
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1; 39
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 4 1/2; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+4 1/2); Under

Game 225-226: Chicago at Oakland
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 127.356; Oakland 128.388
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1; 35
Vegas Line: Chicago by 3 1/2; 39
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+3); Under

Game 227-228: Dallas at NY Giants
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 135.390; NY Giants 137.645
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 2; 46
Vegas Line: Dallas by 1; 49 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (+1); Under

Game 229-230: Detroit at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 135.354; Arizona 128.071
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 7; 38
Vegas Line: Arizona by 1 1/2; 45
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+1 1/2); Under

Game 231-232: Indianapolis at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 147.679; San Diego 135.163
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 12 1/2; 45
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 3; 49 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (-3); Under


MONDAY, NOVEMBER 12

Game 233-234: San Francisco at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 117.961; Seattle 131.430
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 13 1/2; 37
Vegas Line: Seattle by 10; 39 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-10); Under

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[pm530]

National Football League – Long Sheet

NFL
Long Sheet


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Sunday, November 11
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JACKSONVILLE (5 - 3) at TENNESSEE (6 - 2) - 11/11/2007, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
TENNESSEE is 3-2 against the spread versus JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
JACKSONVILLE is 3-2 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DENVER (3 - 5) at KANSAS CITY (4 - 4) - 11/11/2007, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 3-1 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY is 2-2 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BUFFALO (4 - 4) at MIAMI (0 - 8) - 11/11/2007, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BUFFALO is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 4-0 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
BUFFALO is 3-1 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CLEVELAND (5 - 3) at PITTSBURGH (5 - 2) - 11/11/2007, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 4-1 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 5-0 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
5 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ST LOUIS (0 - 8) at NEW ORLEANS (4 - 4) - 11/11/2007, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) as an underdog of 10 or more points since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in all games this season.
ST LOUIS is 64-90 ATS (-35.0 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 16-32 ATS (-19.2 Units) in November games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 16-31 ATS (-18.1 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in all lined games this season.
ST LOUIS is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) as a road underdog of 10.5 to 14 points since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 40-60 ATS (-26.0 Units) in road games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 40-60 ATS (-26.0 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 36-57 ATS (-26.7 Units) in home games against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 49-71 ATS (-29.1 Units) in home games in dome games since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 49-71 ATS (-29.1 Units) in home games in games played on turf since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 15-33 ATS (-21.3 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 49-74 ATS (-32.4 Units) in home games since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 49-74 ATS (-32.4 Units) in home lined games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ST LOUIS is 1-0 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
ST LOUIS is 1-0 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ATLANTA (2 - 6) at CAROLINA (4 - 4) - 11/11/2007, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 49-26 ATS (+20.4 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
CAROLINA is 33-15 ATS (+16.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.
CAROLINA is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CAROLINA is 4-1 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
CAROLINA is 4-1 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PHILADELPHIA (3 - 5) at WASHINGTON (5 - 3) - 11/11/2007, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 3-1 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON is 3-2 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MINNESOTA (3 - 5) at GREEN BAY (7 - 1) - 11/11/2007, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 3-2 against the spread versus GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 3-2 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CINCINNATI (2 - 6) at BALTIMORE (4 - 3) - 11/11/2007, 4:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 4-1 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 4-1 straight up against BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CHICAGO (3 - 5) at OAKLAND (2 - 6) - 11/11/2007, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) against AFC West division opponents since 1992.
CHICAGO is 23-8 ATS (+14.2 Units) in road games in November games since 1992.
CHICAGO is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) in road games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
OAKLAND is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 14-26 ATS (-14.6 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 8-22 ATS (-16.2 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.
OAKLAND is 21-45 ATS (-28.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
OAKLAND is 9-25 ATS (-18.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.
OAKLAND is 14-26 ATS (-14.6 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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DALLAS (7 - 1) at NY GIANTS (6 - 2) - 11/11/2007, 4:15 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY GIANTS is 2-1 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 3-2 straight up against NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DETROIT (6 - 2) at ARIZONA (3 - 5) - 11/11/2007, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1992.
ARIZONA is 32-15 ATS (+15.5 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 1-1 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA is 1-1 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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INDIANAPOLIS (7 - 1) at SAN DIEGO (4 - 4) - 11/11/2007, 8:15 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN DIEGO is 1-0 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
SAN DIEGO is 1-0 straight up against INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


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Monday, November 12
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SAN FRANCISCO (2 - 6) at SEATTLE (4 - 4) - 11/12/2007, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 12-25 ATS (-15.5 Units) in a road game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points since 1992.
SAN FRANCISCO is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) when playing on Monday night since 1992.
SEATTLE is 15-30 ATS (-18.0 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
SEATTLE is 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.
SEATTLE is 58-84 ATS (-34.4 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 3-2 against the spread versus SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 3-2 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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[pm530]

National Football League - Short Sheet

NFL
Short Sheet

Sunday, November 11th

Week 10 Byes: Houston, New England, NY Jets, Tampa Bay

Jacksonville at Tennessee, 1:00 EST
Jacksonville: 0-7 ATS off BB Overs
Tennessee: 7-1 ATS off BB home wins

Denver at Kansas City, 1:00 EST
Denver: 8-1 ATS off BB games scoring 14 points or less
Kansas City: 11-3 Under vs. division opponents

Buffalo at Miami, 1:00 EST
Buffalo: 9-1 ATS with a line of +3 to -3
Miami: 2-11 ATS vs. division opponents

Cleveland at Pittsburgh, 1:00 EST
Cleveland: 9-0 ATS after allowing 30+ points
Pittsburgh: 5-0 Over vs. Cleveland

St. Louis at New Orleans, 1:00 EST
St. Louis: 1-9 ATS as an underdog of 10+ points
New Orleans: 6-1 Over off a home win

Atlanta at Carolina, 1:00 EST
Atlanta: 8-1 Under away off a win
Carolina: 2-9 ATS off a road game

Philadelphia at Washington, 1:00 EST
Philadelphia: 7-0 ATS off a home loss by 21+ points
Washington: 18-6 Under after having 175+ rushing yards

Minnesota at Green Bay, 1:00 EST
Minnesota: 2-11 ATS off a win as a home underdog
Green Bay: 6-0 ATS off a non-conference game

Cincinnati at Baltimore, 4:05 EST
Cincinnati: 1-9 ATS after losing 2 of their last 3 games
Baltimore: 8-3 ATS at home vs. Cincinnati

Chicago at Oakland, 4:15 EST
Chicago: 23-8 ATS away in November
Oakland: 1-8 ATS with a line of +3 to -3

Dallas at NY Giants, 4:15 EST
Dallas: 5-1 Over off a win
NY Giants: 8-2 ATS playing with revenge

Detroit at Arizona, 4:15 EST
Detroit: 5-16 ATS away off BB wins
Arizona: 23-8 ATS at home off 3+ losses

Indianapolis at San Diego, 8:15 EST NBC
Indianapolis: 15-5 ATS off 3+ Unders
San Diego: 0-6 ATS off a non-conference game


Monday, November 12th

San Francisco at Seattle, 8:30 EST ESPN
San Francisco: 20-8 ATS on Monday nights
Seattle: 9-3 Over after scoring 30+ points

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[pm530]

National Football League – Write up

NFL
Write-up


Week 10 NFL schedule

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Sunday, November 11
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Jaguars (5-3) @ Titans (6-2) — Third straight road game for the Jaguars, who gave up 445 passing yards to Brees last week, but now face Titan squad that has total of only 122 passing yards in last two games. Tennessee ran ball down Jags’ throats for 282 yards in 13-10 Week 1 win (+6); Titans won last three games overall, and also three in row at home, allowing just one TD on opponents’ last 39 drives in home games. Jags gave up 31 pg in last three games, after giving up 11.6 in first five; they miss QB Garrard and DT Stroud. Titans have 12 sacks in last two games. Under is 6-1-1 in Tennessee games this season.

Broncos (3-5) @ Chiefs (4-4) —X-rays of Cutler’s leg showed no break, rare good news for Denver side that lost five of last six games; they were outscored 82-27 in losing last two road games, are 1-7 vs spread in ’07, 1-3 as underdog. Chiefs are 3-1 if they allow less than 20 points; they’ve gained more than 290 TY in only two of eight games, allowed 12 sacks in last three games, and other than Gonzalez, have useless receivers- they averaged 5.3 or less ypp in last four games. Star RB Johnson was carted off near end of game last week, which could be very damaging. Six of last seven Denver games went over the total.

Bills (4-4) @ Dolphins (0-8) —Buffalo is 3-0 since bye, allowing 12.7 pg; if they hadn’t blown late lead vs Dallas in Week 5, they would have five-game win streak- they’re +8 in turnovers last four games, taking ball away 11 times. Now, they’re road favorite at desperate Miami club that is 0-3 at home, losing by 17-18-21 points (allowing 40.3 pg) and has been outscored 82-17 in first half of last three games overall. Buffalo is 1-2 on road, scoring 7.7 pg (two TD’s on 28 drives); they have been outscored 64-10 in two games on natural grass (vs Pats, Steelers). Five of last seven Miami games went over total (over is 3-0 in Miami home games). .

Browns (5-3) @ Steelers (6-2) — Cleveland won last three games, scoring 33.7 pg; they covered six of last seven games, have 12 TDs on last 29 drives and converted 19 of last 34 3rd down plays. Browns averaged 7.6+ ypa in four of last five games; they’re +6 in turnovers in their five wins, -8 in their three losses. Pitt is 4-0 off Monday’s rout of Ravens, winning by 23-21-21-31 points; they’re just sixth team ever to win their first four home games of season, all by 21+ points. Steelers routed Browns 34-7 in opener on Lake Erie, running ball for 206 yards, starting six of 14 drives in Browns’ territory. Seven of eight Cleveland games went over total, including last four in row.

Rams (0-8) @ Saints (4-4) —Red-hot Brees is 66-88/771 passing in last two games, as Saints rallied from 0-4 start to even record; only 23 of their last 141 plays were run on third down, that tells you how well they’re moving ball. NO scored 14 or less points in all four losses (four TDs on 41 drives), 22+ in their wins (14 TDs on 43 drives). Doubtful winless Rams can offer much resistance; they haven’t scored TD in 46 drives on road, with 16 3/outs and five missed FGs in nine tries. St Louis is 1-7 vs spread this year; five of eight losses are by 14+ points- they’re -9 in turnovers last three games. Six of their eight games stayed under total. Former Saint coach Haslett is Rams’ DC.

Falcons (2-6) @ Panthers (4-4) —Carolina is 0-3 at home, losing by 13-13-24 points, allowing 28.3 pg; they’ve been outscored 53-19 in first half of last five games, and are now down to Carr and Moore at QB, not ideal combo. Panthers beat Atlanta 27-20 in the season opener, running ball for 175 yards, offsetting 31-44/331 passing day by Harrington. Falcons were outscored 44-12 in second half of last four games; they’re 0-4 on road, losing by 21-6-7-6 points, scoring just 9.8 pg (two TDs on 41 drives on road). Odd thing about Atlanta is they have +11 turnover ratio in last five games, and still went 2-3 in those five. Carolina has +6 ratio in turnovers in their last four games.

Eagles (3-5) @ Redskins (5-3) — The legal case involving Reid’s family is huge news in Philly, is casting pall over season that isn’t going well anyway. Philly lost home Monday nighter 20-12 to Washington in first meeting of season, scoring just nine points in four visits to Redskin red zone- in their last 16 visits to red zone, Iggles have just five TDs, with 10 FGs tried (4.07 ppd). Philly also has just one takeaway in last three games, but they have won three of four after loss this season. Skins are 3-1 at home, with wins by 3,31,2 points; they were outscored 41-9 in first half of last two games, but rallied well to pull out OT win over Jets in Swamp last week. Skins’ last three games went over.

Vikings (3-5) @ Packers (7-1)—Rookie RB Peterson set all-time single game rushing mark last week; he is carrying Viking offense that has all three QB’s banged up; they’re 1-3 on road, losing by 3-3-10 points. Pack beat them 23-16 first meeting, at Metrodome, outrushing Vikes 155-46. Red-hot Favre, who averaged more than 10 yards per pass attempt in each of last two games (with wins at Denver, KC in span of six days) was 32-45/322 passing in first meeting vs Vikes, Minnesota is +5 in turnovers last four games; they outrushed foes 925-315 in last four games. Over is 4-1 in Vikings’ last five games, 5-2 in Packers’ last seven contests. Pack is 1-1-1 as favorite, 5-0 as dog this season.

Bengals (2-6) @ Ravens (4-4) —Not much to choose from here; Bengals are 0-4 on road, giving up 33.8 pg; they’ve lost six of last seven games since 27-20 Week 1 win vs Ravens, allowing 3+ TDs in all seven games. Cincy had six takeaways in the opener, have just 10 in seven games since. Ravens on short week after putrid performance in Pittsburgh (lost 38-7, gaining just 107 yards on a rainy night); they’re 3-0 at home, though, winning by 7-3-19 pts; they’re 1-5 vs. spread as favorite this season, covering only vs winless Rams. Bengals gave up 26 TDs on opponents last 74 drives. Four of last five Baltimore games stayed under total.

Bears (3-5) @ Raiders (2-6) — Oakland scored just 12.5 ppg in losing last four games (under 3-0-1), with -7 turnover ratio and only four TDs on last 43 drives; they’re 11 for last 41 on third down, so no one is making plays to move the chains (think they could use Randy Moss, in his current state?) Chicago has just one TD on last 19 drives, is -7 in turnovers last three games (1-8) and has been outrushed 553-218 in last three games- road team won their last four games. Raiders trying to avoid using rookie QB Russell before he is ready, but if losing continues, they’ll have to play him pretty soon. NFC teams were 5-2 vs AFC last week, cutting AFC’s season lead to 20-18.

Cowboys (7-1) @ Giants (6-2) —Big Blue won six in row after 0-2 start, allowing 11.7 pg in last three games (three TDs allowed on last 32 drives); one of losses was 45-35 shootout in Week 1 in Dallas, with total yardage 478-438, Dallas- they had six TDs on 10 drives. Pokes are 4-0 on road, scoring 33.5 pg; six of their seven wins are by 10+ points. Cowboys outscored foes 156-57 in 2nd half of their wins- Pats had 27-10 edge in second half of their only loss. Giants outrushed opponents 705-377 in last four games; they won last three home games by 13-11-18 points. Six of eight Dallas games went over the total. Cowboys pretty much clinch NFC East with win here.

Lions (6-2) @ Cardinals (3-5) —Detroit has 24 takeaways in eight games (+8 ratio); in three games they lost turnover battle, they were crushed (56-21/34-3) and in one game that was even, they nipped Vikings by FG, so if Arizona can avoid miscues (they’re -9 in turnovers last three games, with 10 giveaways) they can pull upset here. Lions are 3-0 since their bye, giving up 10 pg (three TDs on 31 drives); they outscored last three opponents 42-7 in first half, and outrushed last four foes 396-234. Cardinals are 2-1 at home, beating Seattle, Steelers, losing to Carolina- they need to run ball better (42 rushes, 107 yards in last two games). Three of last four Lion games stayed under.

Colts (7-1) @ Chargers (4-4) —No love lost for Manning clan in San Diego after Eli refused to play for Chargers; huge game for 4-4 Bolts, who are still tied for first in AFC West. Bolts are 3-1 at home, with wins by 11-14-25 points; they’ve outscored last five opponents 99-26 in first half of last five games, but they’ve had injuries on defensive front (Vikings had 378 rushing yards last week) which will hurt vs potent Colt offense (scoring 28 pg on road (4-0)). Indy is off first loss; they covered last six games, with last three staying under total. Rivers needs to make more plays for Bolts, who are just 7 for last 24 on third down conversions. Bigger game for San Diego than Indy.


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Monday, November 12
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49ers (2-6) @ Seahawks (4-4) —Seattle scored 33,30 points in last two games, but couldn’t hold 21-6 lead on Lake Erie last week, but they’re still in good shape in division, since other three teams are bad. 49ers lost last six games, with four losses by 18+ points; they have yet to gain 290 yards in any game this season. Hawks won first meeting 23-3 in Candlestick, holding 49ers to 22 net passing yards (that was with Dilfer under center, not Smith). Seattle lost three of last four games, beating winless Rams; three of their four wins are by 14+ points. 49ers are -9 in turnovers last five games, -15 in sacks; this is their third road game in last four weeks. Potentially ugly Monday night game.

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[pm530]

National Football League - Tips & Trends

NFL


Sunday, November 11

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Tips and Trends
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Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (FOX | 1 PM ET)
League insiders are not expecting a lot of points in this contest, as Green Bay's defense comes into this contest allowing just 16 points per game, which could pose problems for a Vikings offense that is one of the worst in the league. Minnesota does own the league's No. 1 ranked rushing offense (averaging 183 yards per game) though led by rookie phenom Adrian Peterson, who is coming off an NFL-record 296 yards vs. San Diego. EDGE: UNDER
Team insiders believe that Minnesota still needs to find a solution at quarterback to have any real chance at turning things around this season. The Vikings have been rotating second-year quarterback Tarvaris Jackson and Brooks Bollinger. Meanwhile, Green Bay has no such problem with future Hall of Famer Brett Favre under center. BIG EDGE: PACKERS
The Vikings defense has allowed a 300-yard passer three times in the last five games, which is not good news against the very dangerous passing attack of the Packers, ranking second in the NFL in passing yards (290 per game). BIG EDGE: PACKERS
Vikings are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games against the NFC North.
Vikings are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 road games against a winning home team.
Packers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU win.
Packers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games against a losing team.
Road team is 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.

Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers (FOX | 1 PM ET)
Team insiders are reporting that Atlanta head coach Bobby Petrino's deciscion to make changes to the offensive line coming off a bye week paid dividends last week against the 49ers, as Falcons running backs totaled 155 rushing yards. EDGE: FALCONS
Carolina is in a lot of trouble offensively. The Panthers lost starting QB Jake Delhomme earlier this season with an elbow injury and backup David Carr suffered a concussion last week. That means 44-year-old Vinny Testaverde may get the call this week after missing time with an Achilles injury. Carolina is averaging just 12 points over the last five games. In last week's 20-7 loss to Tennessee, the Panthers had just 191 yards of total offense. EDGE: FALCONS
Team insiders believe this game will come down to the matchup between Carolina's rushing defense (ranked 18th in the league, allowing 110 rushing yards per game) against the Falcons run-oriented offense. Those same insiders think the Falcons won't be as effective running outside off turf. SLIGHT EDGE: PANTHERS
Falcons are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games.
Falcons are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games following an ATS win.
Panthers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games against the NFC.
Panthers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games.
Road team is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.

Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins (FOX | 1 PM ET)
Team insiders are a bit perplexed how Philadelphia is in last place in the NFC East division, as the Eagles still possess the league's ninth overall offense and a defense that is ranked No. 12 overall in the NFL, allowing just 19 points, 93 yards rushing and 224 yards passing per game. SLIGHT EDGE: EAGLES
Washington comes into this contest with a ?run first? oriented offense, which should have trouble against an Eagles run defense that is ranked 7th in the NFL. EDGE: EAGLES
The Eagles are 0-3 SU against division opponents this season, getting beaten by an average score of 24-10. EDGE: REDSKINS
The Redskins have swept both meetings with the Eagles just once in the last 18 years. EDGE: EAGLES
Eagles are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games against a winning team.
Eagles are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games against the NFC East.
Redskins are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
Redskins are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a SU win.
The UNDER is 6-1-1 in the last 8 meetings.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (CBS | 1 PM ET)
Team insiders believe that this is a very tired Jacksonville club that will be playing the last game of a brutal three-game road trip. The Jaguars are a very physical football team that lacks depth, so when they get tired they can be exploited. Last week, the Saints piled up 538 yards on this tired defense. EDGE: TITANS
Team insiders are concerned about the status of Jacksonville QB Quinn Gray, who made his second start last week for the injured David Garrard (ankle). Gray sprained his left ankle on a hit early in the second quarter and finished the contest with three interceptions. Experts believe Garrard could return to action this week. EDGE: TITANS
The Titans have a run-first offense under offensive coordinator Norm Chow and run by second-year QB Vince Young (3 TDs, 8 INTs), averaging 153 yards rushing per game (5th in the NFL). Second-year RB LenDale White has rushed for 104, 133 and 100 yards the last three games, and they are off a 20-7 win over Carolina Sunday. EDGE: TITANS
League insiders have been very impressed with this young Titans defense that ranks 5th overall in the NFL, including No. 1 against the run. Jacksonville should find trouble establishing the run against this stopping unit. Dating back to the second quarter against the Colts on September 16th, the Titans have allowed just one touchdown in 14 quarters on their home field. EDGE: TITANS
Jaguars are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a loss of 14+ points.
Jaguars are 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 games as an underdog.
Titans are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games against the AFC.
Titans are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following an ATS loss.
The Titans are 17-4-1 ATS in their last 22 games.
The OVER is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
The UNDER is 7-1 in Tennessee's 8 games this season.

Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (CBS | 1 PM ET)
Browns are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 against the AFC.
Browns are 8-1 ATS in their last nine against a winning team.
Steelers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
Steelers are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games as a favorite.
Favorite is 6-0-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings.

St. Louis Rams at New Orleans Saints (FOX | 1 PM ET)
The Saints have won four straight since opening the season at 0-4, and they find themselves just a half-game behind Tampa Bay for the lead in the NFC South. Their offensive resurgence has a lot to do with the winning streak, as they are averaging 30.5 points per game after scoring 14 or less in each of their first four. EDGE: SAINTS & OVER
The Rams are getting beaten by an average score of 27-12 this season.
Rams are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog.
Rams are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games.
Saints are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall.
Saints are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games.
The OVER is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.

Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins (CBS | 1 PM ET)
Some league insiders believe that this is an ideal situational setting for Miami to get its first win of the season. The Dolphins are coming off their bye week while Buffalo is off a rather surprising win over Cincinnati at home. SLIGHT EDGE: DOLPHINS
Team insiders are reporting Buffalo captain J.P. Losman will start again at QB this week after backup quarterback Trent Edwards suffered a sprained wrist two weeks ago against New York. Losman threw for 295 yards and a touchdown last week against the Bengals and has helped the Bills win two straight as part of a three-game winning streak. EDGE: BILLS
Bills are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Bills are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games as a favorite.
Bills are 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
Dolphins are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as a home underdog.
Dolphins are 9-25 ATS in their last 34 home games.

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (CBS | 1 PM ET)
The Broncos come into this contest with the distinction of having the league's worst run defense, surrendering a whopping 157 yards per game. Team insiders are a bit concerned about the health of Kansas City RB Larry Johnson, who injured his right foot and was on crutches after last week's game. Johnson is expected to miss this game, so former All-Pro Priest Holmes will get the start and could play a significant role. EDGE: CHIEFS
The injury bug has hit the Broncos hard, as QB Jay Cutler and RB Travis Henry were sidelined with injuries last week game at Detroit. WR Javon Walker also has an injured right knee and has missed 5 straight while free safety John Lynch was inactive with a pinched nerve in his neck. The net result of these injuries was a 44-7 thrashing at the hands of the Lions last week. BIG EDGE: CHIEFS
The Broncos have been horrible on the road this season, losing by an average score of 32-14. This week doesn?t look like that trend will change as Denver has not won in Kansas City since 2002. EDGE: CHIEFS
Broncos are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as an undersog.
Broncos are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games against the AFC West.
Chiefs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games against a losing team.
Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a double-digit home loss.
The OVER is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Kansas City.

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (CBS | 4:05 PM ET)
Bengals are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Bengals are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games against the AFC.
Ravens are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS loss.
Ravens are 0-6 in their last 6 games against the AFC.
The OVER is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings.

Chicago Bears at Oakland Raiders (FOX | 4:15 PM ET)
Bears are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games overall.
Bears are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite.
Raiders are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games as a home underdog.
Raiders are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games as a small home underdog.
The OVER is 10-3 in Chicago's last 13 games against a losing team.

Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants (FOX | 4:15 PM ET)
This is an in-season revenge contest, as the Giants are off their bye week and have had two weeks to prepare for this contest. In their first meeting of the season, the Cowboys beat them, 45-35. EDGE: GIANTS
The Cowboys are not just winning their games this season, they are blowing their opponents away. The average margin of victory for Dallas is 11 points per game this season. When the Cowboys are the chalk, they are beating teams by an average score of 31-16. EDGE: COWBOYS
The Cowboys are a very well-rounded team, entering this contest with the league's No. 8 defense, allowing 22 points, 84 yards rushing and 214 passing while ranking No. 2 in the NFL in total offense, averaging 32 points on 123 yards rushing and 278 passing per game. EDGE: COWBOYS
Team insiders are curious to see how the Giants perform in the second half of the season. Many of the players reported being tired following a very difficult schedule in the first half, playing four night games (including one that was played 6 p.m. London time) and making two trans-Atlantic flights. They are also infamous for falling apart in the second half of the season the last few years under head coach Tom Coughlin. EDGE: COWBOYS
The Giants have not done well with extra rest, going 4-14 SU over their last 18 off their bye week. EDGE: COWBOYS
Cowboys are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games against the NFC.
Cowboys are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
Giants are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 game following a SU win.
Giants are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog.
The OVER is 4-1-1 in the last 6 meetings in New York.

Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals (FOX | 4:15 ET)
The surprising Lions come into this contest riding an impressive 4-1 SU & ATS run, but they have struggled on the road this season, allowing a whopping 29 points per game. EDGE: CARDINALS
Arizona is riding a three-game losing streak with an offense that is averaging just 13 points during that skid. EDGE: LIONS
Lions are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog.
Lions are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games against a losing home team.
Cardinals are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a SU loss.
Cardinals are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite.
The OVER is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings.

Indianapolis Colts at San Diego Chargers (NBC | 8:15 ET)
Colts are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Colts are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games against the AFC.
Chargers are 12-3-2 ATS in their last 17 games following a SU loss.
Chargers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games against a winning team.
The OVER is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.

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[pm530]

National Football League – Trends

NFL


Sunday, November 11

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NFL Week 10 trends
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The cheeseheads in Wisconsin will pack Lambeau Field this weekend when the
red-hot Green Bay Packers (7-1 SU, 6-2 ATS) return home to host the
upset-minded Minnesota Vikings (3-5, 3-3-2).

The Packers return home sitting atop the NFL Central Division and tied with
Dallas for the best record in the conference. However, they can hardly
afford to take the Vikings lightly despite a 23-16 road win in the initial
series encounter.

The underdog in this traditional rivalry had cashed in 16 of the previous 17
meetings until the Packers prevailed as 1-point favorites at the Metrodome.

Green Bay has been a poor investment as home favorites (5-12-1 ATS) and as
division home chalk (3-9 ATS). The Packers have cashed six straight coming
off a non-conference game.

Minnesota has 'covered' nine of its last dozen against Green Bay. The
Vikings have been tripped up in 11 of 13 ATS off an upset win as home dogs.

The 'over' has cashed at a 12-4-1 clip in the last 16 shootouts on the
frozen tundra of Wisconsin. Minnesota has eclipsed the 'total' in 20 of
its
last 28 in November. The Vikings have been on the low side in eight straight
off a double-digit win.

Trends and angles for the remainder of the NFL's Week 10 menu appear below.

JAGUARS (5-3 SU, 4-4 ATS) at TITANS (6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS)

Tennessee upset Jacksonville in the season opener as 6 1/2-point road dogs,
13-10. The Titans have won 13 of the past 18 series scrapes (12-6 ATS). The
home team has won and cashed in 11 of the past 16 confrontations and the SU
winner is 23-2 ATS. The Jaguars are 14-4 after losing by 14 points or more
and they have cashed at a 9-2-1 clip as division road dogs. They have also
'covered' six straight off a double-digit SU loss.

BRONCOS (3-5, 1-7) at CHIEFS (4-4, 5-3)

Kansas City has feasted on Denver at Arrowhead Stadium, winning 12 of 16 SU.
The home team in this AFC West rivalry has cashed at a 10-2-1 pace. However,
the Chiefs have failed in seven of 11 as favorites against the Broncos.
Denver is 9-4 with division revenge. The Broncos are also 10-4 as division
dogs of more than one point. Kansas City is 20-7-2 ATS at home after
allowing 30 points or more. Eight of the last 11 series encounters have been
on the high side.

BILLS (4-4, 6-2) at DOLPHINS (0-8, 2-4-2)

Buffalo has cashed four straight versus Miami, but it has lost eight of the
last dozen series showdowns SU on the road. The Bills have 'covered' five
straight this season and they are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 trips to the
post. Buffalo is just 2-9-1 as division road favorites. The Dolphins are
2-11 ATS versus division rivals. They have cashed eight of 11 as home dogs
off back-to-back SU losses. The Bills have eclipsed the total in 17 of 26 as
road favorites and in 13 of 16 following a double-digit victory.

BROWNS (5-3, 6-2) at STEELERS (5-2 SU&ATS prior to Monday)

Cleveland will be looking for payback after bowing to Pittsburgh in its home
opener as 4 1/2-point dogs, 34-7. The Steelers have won and cashed seven
straight versus the Browns overall and they are 12-2 SU and 10-4 ATS at home
in this AFC Central rivalry. The Browns are 11-6-1 as road dogs of seven
points or more and 18-6-1 ATS after scoring 23 points or more. Cleveland has
zipped 'over' at a 15-4-2 pace as division road dogs and Pittsburgh had
followed suit at a 12-1-1 clip as division home favorites prior to Monday's
match with Baltimore.

RAMS (0-8 SU&ATS) at SAINTS (4-4, 3-5)

St. Louis has come up short in nine of its last 10 as double-digit dogs
while New Orleans has floundered in eight of 10 as double-digit favorites.
The Rams are 0-7 as road dogs of 10 1/2 to 14 points and they have failed to
get the green at a 9-28-2 rate versus a non-division opponent. The red-hot
Saints have won four straight after starting the year 0-4. However, they are
1-12 ATS after scoring 28 points or more in back-to-back games when facing
an opponent that's below .500.

FALCONS (2-6, 5-3) at PANTHERS (4-4 SU&ATS)

Carolina drew first blood this season, winning as 3 1/2-point favorites in
Week 3 at Atlanta, 27-20. The Falcons are 11-6-3 ATS in the last 20 series
clashes. The Panthers are 19-6 ATS after scoring 14 points or less in two
straight games and they are 21-11 ATS after losing by double-digits. Atlanta
has dipped 'under' in 17 of 23 on the road, including 11 of its last 12
and
seven straight on road grass. Carolina has knuckled 'under' in 14 straight
as home favorites against division foes. The NFC South foes have been on the
low side in 10 of the past 12 meetings at Bank of America Stadium and in 17
of 22 confrontations overall.

EAGLES (3-5 SU&ATS) at SKINS (5-3, 3-3-2)

The underdog has barked in four of the past five series clashes between
Philadelphia and Washington. The Eagles are 18-11 ATS versus division foes
on the highway. They have also 'covered' at a 15-8-1 clip against the
Redskins. Washington is 9-19 as division home favorites and 4-9 as series
chalk. Philadelphia has strayed 'under' in 14 of its last 20 as division
dogs on the road and in 13 of 17 on the highway after yielding 28 points or
more. These NFC East rivals have slipped below the 'total' in 11 of 14
meetings at D.C.

BENGALS (2-6, 2-5-1) at RAVENS (4-3, 1-6 prior to Monday)

Baltimore has won and cashed eight of its last 11 versus Cincinnati in Charm
City. The favorite has clicked in nine of the last 11 showdowns and the SU
winner is 20-2 ATS. The Bengals had 'covered' six straight on the road
versus division foes until coming up short at Cleveland in their road opener
this year. Cincinnati has zipped 'over' in 10 of 11 as division road dogs
and the Ravens have followed suit in 11 of 16 as division home favorites.

BEARS (3-5, 2-6) at OAKLAND (2-6, 3-5)

Chicago has 'covered' 13 of 19 when facing teams from the AFC West, though
it came up short in its first two chances this season. The Bears are 21-9
ATS on the road in Weeks 10-13 and 23-8 away from home in November. However,
they are only 4-11-1 ATS on the road versus teams from the AFC. Oakland is
6-18 as home dogs of seven points or less and it has failed to get the green
in 15 of 20 as home overall. The Raiders have cashed 10 of 15 as
short-enders when facing a team from the NFC. Chicago has topped the 'total'
in 15 of 20 as favorites and in six straight after allowing 17 points or
less in two straight games. Oakland has bounced 'under' in 13 of 17 as home
dogs and in 14 of 16 at home after the first month of the season.

COWBOYS (7-1, 5-2-1) at GIANTS (6-2, 5-3)

The New York Giants are 11-5-1 ATS at home versus Dallas. The Giants have
cashed 22 of 32 at home after allowing 10 points or less. Dallas is 6-15-1
off a double-digit division win. The Cowboys have cashed 11 of 14 the week
after facing Philadelphia.

LIONS (5-3, 5-2-1) at CARDS (3-5, 5-2-1)

Detroit is 5-16 ATS after two or more straight wins. Arizona is 23-8 ATS at
home after three or more straight losses. The Lions are 2-10 ATS on the
highway off a SU victory. The Cards are 11-6 ATS after losing by seven
points or less.

COLTS (7-1, 5-1-2 ATS) at CHARGERS (4-4 SU&ATS)

Indianapolis is 8-3 as road favorites off a SU loss and 14-6-2 as road chalk
of 3 1/2 points or less. The Colts have also cashed at an 18-5-1 clip versus
non-division foes on the highway. San Diego is 14-5-2 ATS after losing SU as
favorites. However, the Chargers are 0-6 ATS off a non-conference game and
1-6 ATS at home in November off a double-digit spread loss. Indianapolis has
blown 'over' in 15 of 18 on the road when facing a team from the AFC West.
San Diego has been on the high side in six of eight at home following a
double-digit loss.

49ERS (2-6, 2-5-1) at SEAHAWKS

Seattle trounced San Francisco as 1-point road favorites in the initial
confrontation this year, 23-3. The 49ers are 20-8 ATS on Monday Night
Football and 36-17 ATS when playing their second straight game on the road.
The 'under' is 5-2-1 in the last eight series clashes. The Seahawks have
knuckled 'under' at a 16-4-1 clip as division favorites at home.

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[pm530]

National Football League – Cheat Sheet

NFL


Sunday, November 11

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cheat Sheet
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NFL poolies' cheat sheet for Week 10

Buffalo at Miami (+3)

Why Bills Cover: Bills are 6-0 ATS in their last six meetings and 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings in Miami. J.P. Losman has thrown more touchdowns (7) against Miami than any other opponent. Won five of last six meetings with Dolphins, including both last season.

Why Dolphins cover: Averaging 4.6 points per game more than Buffalo. Miami’s sixth-best pass defense facing league’s second-worst offense.

Total (40 ½): Over is 5-1 in Dolphins’ last six vs. AFC and 4-1 in Bills’ last five games as a road favorite.

Cleveland at Pittsburgh (-10)

Why Browns cover: Averaging 33.7 points in their last three games, all victories. Both Willie Parker (knee) and Ben Roethlisberger (hip) are suffering from injuries.

Why Steelers cover: Have won eight straight matchups with Cleveland, outscoring them 231- 94. Are holding opponents to 12.2 points per game while scoring 27.8. Haven’t lost at home this season. Browns are 0-7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings. Favorite is 6-0-1 ATS in last seven meetings.

Total (47 ½): Over is 4-0-1 in the last five meetings and 4-0-1 in the last five meetings in Pittsburgh.

Denver at Kansas City (-3)

Why Broncos cover: Travis Henry has rushed for 250 yards in two career games versus Kansas City. Chiefs will be without leading rusher Larry Johnson, which means 34-year-old Priest Holmes will get the bulk of the carries.

Why Chiefs cover: Broncos QB Jay Cutler will play with a leg injury. Home team is 6-1 ATS in last seven meetings and has won eight straight. Broncos are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings and 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight meetings in Kansas City.

Total (37 ½): Over is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Kansas City and 8-3 in the last 11 meetings overall.

Jacksonville at Tennessee (-4)

Why Jaguars cover: Have won two of last three meetings in Tennessee. Are 3-1 ATS on the road this year compared to 1-3 at home. Titans have running back issues with LenDale White dealing with a toe injury, Chris Henry facing a suspension and Chris Brown returning from an ankle injury.

Why Titans cover: Rushed for 282 yards in Week 1 against a Jacksonville team that will now be without run-stopper Marcus Stroud who is suspended. Jags QB Quinn Gray is only completing 49.3 percent of his pass attempts. Home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Jaguars are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 meetings and 2-6 ATS in their last eight meetings in Tennessee.

Total (35): Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.

Minnesota at Green Bay (-6)

Why Vikings cover: Are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 meetings and 7-0 ATS in their last seven meetings in Green Bay. Adrian Peterson is having a record-setting year and poses matchup difficulties for any team. Packers will be without run-stopping safety Nick Collins who has a sprained knee. Road team is 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.

Why Packers cover: Are 3-1 at home this year while the Vikings are 1-3 on the road. Have won last three meetings. Two of Minnesota’s three QBs are banged up. Brooks Bollinger will start if Tarvaris Jackson (concussion) can’t go. Packers have NFC’s sixth-ranked defense while Vikings have 30th-ranked pass offense. Donald Driver has 546 yards receiving and four touchdowns in his last five games versus Minnesota.

Total (40 ½): Under is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings.

Philadelphia at Washington (-3)

Why Eagles cover: Are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 meetings in Washington with six wins in their last seven visits. Donovan McNabb has thrown for 1,283 yards and eight touchdowns (3 INTs) in five career games versus the Redskins.

Why Redskins cover: Are 3-1 ATS at home. Favorite is 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 meetings. Only allowing 14.8 points per game at home. Eagles are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six meetings.

Total: (38): Under is 6-1-1 in the last eight meetings and 4-0-2 in the last six meetings in Washington.

St. Louis at New Orleans (-11 ½)

Why Rams cover: Are 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings in New Orleans. Expected to have Steven Jackson back from injury. Marc Bulger threw for 358 yards and had two TDs in their last meeting. Road team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings and has won six of the last 10. Drew Brees threw for 139 yards and two interceptions in his only game versus St. Louis. Reggie Bush will play with a bruised knee.

Why Saints cover: Have won four straight after starting 0-4, covering in three of those victories. Averaging 31.3 points in their last three games. Rams are 1-7 ATS this season and only averaging 12.4 points per game.

Total (46): Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.

Atlanta at Carolina (-4)

Why Falcons cover: Road team is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings, winning all four games. Immobile Panthers QB Vinny Testaverde will play with an Achilles injury. Both wins this season have come at home.

Why Panthers cover: Have won four of last five meetings. DeShaun Foster has 574 yards rushing and five touchdowns in last five games against Atlanta. Falcons are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings and only averaging 9.8 points per game on the road.

Total (36): Under is 10-4-1 in the last 15 meetings and 4-0 in the last four meetings in Carolina.

Cincinnati at Baltimore (-4 ½)

Why Bengals cover: Are 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings. Carson Palmer has thrown nine TDs in his last five games against Baltimore. Will have WR Chris Henry back from suspension. In their last three meetings Cincy has held Willis McGahee to 168 yards and no touchdowns.

Why Ravens cover: Ray Lewis called out the offense after embarrassing loss to Pittsburgh last week. Have third-best defense in NFL. Home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Favorite is 13-3 ATS in last 16 meetings. Bengals are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 meetings in Baltimore.

Total (44 ½): Over is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings and 4-1 in the last five meetings in Baltimore.

Chicago at Oakland (+3)

Why Bears cover: Raiders are 0-4 in their last four home games and 6-20 ATS in their last 26 home games overall. Josh McCown replaced Daunte Culpepper at QB for Oakland last week and threw three interceptions. Raiders haven’t won since September.

Why Raiders cover: Home team has won last three contests. Are averaging 100 yards rushing in their last three games thanks largely to Justin Fargas. Chicago has NFC’s worst run defense at 130.9 yards per game. Bears are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games overall.

Total (38): Under is 14-5-1 in Oakland’s last 20 games.

Dallas at N.Y. Giants (+1 ½)

Why Cowboys cover: Averaging 405.8 yards and 33.1-points per game. Tank Johnson will play in his first game for Dallas. Held bruising running back Brandon Jacobs to 26 yards on the ground in Week 1. Plaxico Burress is dealing with an ankle injury.

Why Giants cover: Have won six straight games. Eli Manning has thrown 12 TDs in six games against Dallas. Home team is 11-5-2 ATS in their last 18 meetings. Tony Romo has thrown six interceptions in his last five games against New York. Cowboys are 1-4-2 ATS in their last seven meetings and 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight meetings in New York.

Total (49): Over is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings in New York. Teams combined for 80-points in Week 1.

Detroit at Arizona (-1)

Why Lions cover: Coming off impressive 44-7 rout of Denver last week. Have won three of last four against Arizona. Holding opponents to 10 points per game in their last three while averaging 27.7. Cardinals have lost three straight, averaging 13 points in those contests.

Why Cardinals cover: Anquan Boldin has 352 yards receiving and two touchdowns in his last three games against Detroit. Favorite is 5-0 ATS in last five meetings. Home team is 7-0 ATS in last seven meetings. Lions are 0-4 ATS in last four meetings in Arizona. Jon Kitna has been limited in practice this week due to a sore shoulder.

Total (45): Over is 6-1 in the last seven meetings.

Indianapolis at San Diego (+3 ½)

Why Colts cover: Are 4-0 on the road. Holding LaDainian Tomlinson to 78.5 yards rushing in their last two meetings. Road team is 5-2 ATS in last seven meetings. Chargers gave up 296 yards rushing to Adrian Peterson last week, an NFL record.

Why Chargers cover: Are 3-1 ATS and straight-up at home. Will want to rebound from embarrassing 35-17 loss to Minnesota last week. Colts are 2-5 ATS in their last seven meetings. Underdog is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings. Peyton Manning has thrown five interceptions in four games against San Diego.

Total (48 ½): Over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings.

San Francisco at Seattle (-10)

Why 49ers cover: Are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 Monday Night Football games. Frank Gore is expected to return from an ankle injury and has averaged 110 rushing yards per game against the Seahawks in his career.

Why Seahawks cover: In his last five games against the Niners, Matt Hasselbeck has thrown 11 touchdown passes while averaging 249 yards per game. Could have receiver Deion Branch back from injury. The 49ers sport the NFL’s worst offense and are only averaging 13 points per game.

Total (39 ½): Under is 7-1 in San Francisco’s last eight versus NFC West.

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[pm530]

National Football League - Gameday

NFL
Gameday


Sunday, November 11

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NFL Gameday
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Sunday NFL Gameday

Peyton Manning's Colts will be looking to get back on track on Sunday night when they play a road game in San Diego against the Chargers. Here is your NFL Gameday . . .

Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (-9.5) (Total 47.5)
Heinz Field, 1:00pm ET (CBS)

The Browns improved to 5-3 on the season with a 33-30 win over the Rams in Cleveland on Sunday. Derek Anderson failed to throw a touchdown strike for the Browns in that win, but he did complete 29-of-48 pass attempts for 364 yards on the day. Jamal Lewis was limited to just 37 yards on 20 carries for Cleveland, but he made the most of that workload with four touchdowns. Phil Dawson booted a field goal in OT.

The Steelers sit one game ahead of the Browns in the division standings after they pounded the Ravens 38-7 at Heinz Field on Monday night. Ben Roethlisberger went 13-of-16 for 209 yards with five touchdown passes for Pittsburgh in that win, while Santonio Holmes and Nate Washington each had two TD grabs. Both Roethlisberger (hip) and Willie Parker (knee) will be available to start for the Steelers in this divisional matchup.

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-6) (Total 40.5)
Lambeau Field, 1:00pm ET (FOX)

Minnesota is now 3-5 on the season after they knocked off the Chargers 35-17 at home on the weekend. Adrian Peterson rushed for a record 296 yards on 30 carries for the Vikings in that victory, and he found the end zone three times. Starting QB Tarvaris Jackson went just 6-for-12 for 63 yards before leaving the game with a concussion; backup Brooks Bollinger went 7-of-10 for 95 yards and a touchdown the rest of the way.

The Packers put up 20 points in the fourth quarter in Week 9 to get past the Chiefs by a final score of 33-22 on the road. Brett Favre went 24-of-34 for 360 yards in that contest, with two touchdown passes and two interceptions. Greg Jennings had two touchdown catches in the win, including a 60-yard reception in the fourth quarter. Ryan Grant rushed for 37 yards on four carries against Kansas City before suffering a head injury.

Dallas Cowboys (-1.5) at New York Giants (Total 49)
Giants Stadium, 4:15pm ET (FOX)

The Cowboys improved to 7-1 on the season by beating the Eagles 38-17 in a laugher last weekend. Tony Romo completed 20-of-25 pass attempts for 324 yards in that contest, with three touchdown strikes and one interception. Terrell Owens had a big day downfield for Dallas, with 10 catches for 174 yards and a touchdown. Julius Jones and Marion Barber combined for 113 yards rushing, and each managed to find the end zone

New York is coming off their bye week, and they sit one game behind Dallas in the NFC East standings. The Giants got past the Dolphins 13-10 over in London, England back in Week 8, taking a 13-0 lead into halftime and holding on for the victory. Eli Manning completed just 8-of-22 pass attempts for 59 yards in that game, with no touchdowns. Brandon Jacobs provided the bulk of the Giants' offense with 131 yards on 23 carries.

Indianapolis Colts (-3.5) at San Diego Chargers (Total 48.5)
Qualcomm Stadium, 8:15pm ET (NBC)

Indianapolis came up short in the battle of the unbeatens on Sunday, falling 24-20 at home to rival New England. Peyton Manning went 16-of-27 for 225 yards in that contest, with one touchdown pass, one interception, and one rushing score. Joseph Addai ran for 112 yards on 26 yards in the game, and he also caught five balls for another 114 yards and a score. Marvin Harrison sat out that contest with a knee injury.

San Diego dropped to 4-4 on the season with that loss to the Vikings last weekend. Philip Rivers struggled for the Chargers in that contest, completing just 19-of-42 pass attempts for 197 yards, with no touchdowns and one interception. LaDainian Tomlinson was held to just 40 yards off 16 rushes by the Vikings defense, but he did manage to find the end zone once. Antonio Gates had only one catch for 10 yards in that big loss.

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[pm530]

National Football League – over / unders

NFL
Total bias: Week 10 over/under plays


Sunday, November 11

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NFL over/under picks
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Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans over 35

I know the last time the Jags and Titans played each other the final score resembled a baseball boxscore, but I think things will be different this time around.

There's a good chance Jacksonville will have its starting QB back, which should be a big plus for the offense. David Garrard was playing flawlessly before a high ankle sprain put him on the shelf.

Titans running back LenDale White has rushed for 100 or more yards in each of the last three weeks, and there'll be no Marcus Stroud clogging up the middle. The Pro Bowl defensive tackle begins his four-game suspension (steroids) this weekend.


Indianapolis Colts at San Diego Chargers under 48

The Colts' lack of depth at receiver was exposed last week. If Marvin Harrison plays you have to assume he's still not all the way back from his knee injury. Indy is a much better team when they stick to the ground game. That should be the game plan seeing how poorly the Chargers did against the run last weekend.

Phillip Rivers concerns me. He doesn't read or respond well to the blitz. I've got a feeling the defensive-end tandem of Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney will be in Rivers' grill most of the game.


San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks under 39

The 49ers couldn't gain 10 yards even if you gave their offense six cracks. Star back Frank Gore is banged up and the offensive line is in shambles. Throw in a quarterback with a bum shoulder and you've got the formula for a great under club.

The Seahawks are now one-dimensional with the football. If anyone knows where the real Shaun Alexander is could you please page him? The guy is killing my fantasy team. My crystal ball says there should be an abundance of kicking and punting on Monday night. Hope you?re a fan of special teams.

Last week's record: 1-2

Season record: 15-12

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[pm530]

Six-pack

(Earlier “Six-pack” is repeated here.)

NFL trends to ponder for Week 10

-- Ravens are 9-4 vs spread as an NFC North home favorite.

-- Panthers covered four of last 13 as a home favorite in NFC South games, with all thirteen staying under the total.

-- Jaguars covered 16 of last 22 when underdog of 3+ points.

-- Vikings are 5-11-2 vs spread in last eighteen games.

-- Redskins covered four of last fourteen as division HF.

-- Cowboys covered one of last seven NFC East road tilts.

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[pm530]

Canadian Football League – Long Sheet

CFL
Long Sheet


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sunday, November 11
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MONTREAL (8 - 10) at WINNIPEG (10 - 7 - 1) - 11/11/2007, 1:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
MONTREAL is 5-4 against the spread versus WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
WINNIPEG is 5-4 straight up against MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CALGARY (7 - 10 - 1) at SASKATCHEWAN (12 - 6) - 11/11/2007, 4:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CALGARY is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in road games in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
CALGARY is 15-30 ATS (-18.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 40-21 ATS (+16.9 Units) when playing on a Sunday since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
CALGARY is 5-4 against the spread versus SASKATCHEWAN over the last 3 seasons
CALGARY is 5-4 straight up against SASKATCHEWAN over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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[pm530]

Canadian Football League – Hot Lines

CFL
Hot Lines


Sunday, November 11

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Makin’ Canadian bacon: CFL playoff picks
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Montreal Alouettes at Winnipeg Blue Bombers (-7, 48)
Sunday, Nov. 11, 2 p.m. ET

Winnipeg is as healthy as it's been in some time, regaining the services of star RB Charles Roberts and DE Tom Canada for this weekend's game. The Bombers also swept the season series against the Als, going 3-0.

But none of the Bombers' wins over Montreal this season were by double-digits. The regular season finale (also at Canad Inns Stadium) was a 20-17 squeaker that Montreal could have forced into overtime but for a late penalty or two. Further, the Alouettes have shown that they can stay in games with Marcus Brady at quarterback. Brady will be helped by the return of running back Jarrett Payton to the Als backfield.

I can't side with Montreal in this game, however, even with the Als getting a full touchdown. The Alouettes stunk down the stretch and head coach / GM Jim Popp isn't helping matters with his actions and words. There has been grumbling around Montreal about Popp's "me-first" attitude and it has become messier with allegations that kicker Damon Duval is considering leaving the Als if Popp stays after this season. Duval is the son-in-law of Als team president Larry Smith.

Popp also signed former Argos return man Bashir Levingston to play his first game in two months this weekend, much to the chagrin of Montreal's current kick returners. It's the latest move of many that could mark the end of Popp's reign over the Alouettes empire. He has spoken openly about what a nice fit former Ticats GM Marcel Desjardins would be somewhere in Montreal's front office. Duval likely isn't alone in hoping Popp is replaced by Desjardins, as opposed to merely joined by him.

On the field, the biggest disparity between the teams will be in the trenches. Winnipeg's pass rush will be boosted by Canada's return. He'll have a crack against an all-Canadian O-line that finished last in the league by allowing 68 quarterback sacks. On the other side of the ball, Montreal's defense finished seventh in an eight-team league with only 36 sacks and faces a Bombers' O-line that allowed fewer sacks than any other club. The fact that Roberts' understudy Fred Reid had a monster day against the Als last weekend underlines how Winnipeg's line excels in run-blocking as well as protecting QB Kevin Glenn.

Winnipeg hasn't won a playoff game since 2002, but that should change Sunday. This isn't the same Alouettes powerhouse we've come to know through the years, not even close. Montreal is a sinking ship with a descent ahead of it before thoughts of another Grey Cup appearance become reasonable.

Pick: Blue Bombers -7


Calgary Stampeders at Saskatchewan Roughriders (-6, 56)
Sunday, Nov. 11, 5 p.m. ET

They've been waiting for this in Regina a long, long time. It's been 19 years since the Riders hosted a playoff game, 31 since they won a home playoff game. There are a lot of reasons to count on Saskatchewan to deliver to the province's rabid football following.

The Riders were consistently better than the Stampeders this season, for starters. Saskatchewan should also have its backfield in place, with both Wes Cates and Corey Holmes able to suit up on Sunday. And then there's the messy situation on the Calgary sidelines; reports indicate that the Stamps have already lined up Tom Hufnagel as a replacement for current head coach Tom Higgins once the season wraps up.

But not everything is coming up Green for Sunday. The Riders wrapped up the regular season on a horrible note against the Argonauts. While Saskatchewan had nothing to play for, head coach Kent Austin was still disgusted by his team's effort a week ago. Of particular concern was the lack of pass rush, which led to Toronto quarterback Michael Bishop's great statistical day. Calgary has Henry Burris and a posse of threatening receivers. If the Riders can cough up 41 points to the offensively-challenged Argos, it's difficult to imagine the Stampeders getting shut down.

Considering the questions still surrounding Calgary's 'D', it's difficult to imagine either team getting shut down. The Stamps canned defensive coordinator Denny Creehan less than a month ago and readjusted their defensive alignment. The first game in the new system was a success. Subsequent efforts have raised as many new questions as they've answered previous ones. Now comes word that defensive leader Brian Clark will be a healthy scratch for Sunday's game, to the bewilderment of many of his temmates.

"What's going on around here?" one Calgary player asked with a Calgary Sun reporter within earshot after the recent front office shenanigans. Nothing good. Luckily the Stamps have a healthy Burris. The quarterback was the league's best player in the second half of the season until his shoulder injury.

The teams met three times this season with the combined points tally reaching 57, 66 and 54 points. Sunday will be a crisp day in Regina with a stronger-than-average wind, but I still like the odds of a shootout in the West Semifinal.

Pick: Over 56

Last week: 1-3

Year to date: 35-37

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[pm530]

National Basketball Association – Long Sheet

NBA
Long Sheet


Sunday, November 11

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WASHINGTON (0 - 5) at ATLANTA (2 - 3) - 11/11/2007, 2:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 54-83 ATS (-37.3 Units) in November games since 1996.
WASHINGTON is 100-134 ATS (-47.4 Units) vs. division opponents since 1996.
WASHINGTON is 104-141 ATS (-51.1 Units) after allowing 105 points or more since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 4-4 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON is 6-2 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
6 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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HOUSTON (5 - 1) at CHARLOTTE (3 - 2) - 11/11/2007, 6:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 4-0 against the spread versus CHARLOTTE over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 3-1 straight up against CHARLOTTE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW ORLEANS (4 - 2) at PHILADELPHIA (2 - 3) - 11/11/2007, 6:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 38-65 ATS (-33.5 Units) after a division game since 1996.
NEW ORLEANS is 52-34 ATS (+14.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 3-1 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 3-1 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MIAMI (0 - 5) at NEW YORK (2 - 2) - 11/11/2007, 6:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 4-3 against the spread versus NEW YORK over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 4-3 straight up against NEW YORK over the last 3 seasons
4 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MILWAUKEE (2 - 3) at SAN ANTONIO (5 - 1) - 11/11/2007, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MILWAUKEE is 120-159 ATS (-54.9 Units) in non-conference games since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 522-452 ATS (+24.8 Units) in all games since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 78-54 ATS (+18.6 Units) after 3 or more consecutive unders since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
MILWAUKEE is 4-0 against the spread versus SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons
MILWAUKEE is 3-1 straight up against SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DETROIT (4 - 1) at SEATTLE (0 - 6) - 11/11/2007, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 33-18 ATS (+13.2 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 16-4 ATS (+11.6 Units) in road games after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 111-82 ATS (+20.8 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 2-2 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 4-0 straight up against SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CLEVELAND (3 - 3) at LA CLIPPERS (4 - 1) - 11/11/2007, 9:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA CLIPPERS are 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) as a home favorite of 3 points or less over the last 3 seasons.
LA CLIPPERS are 10-21 ATS (-13.1 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA CLIPPERS is 2-2 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
CLEVELAND is 3-1 straight up against LA CLIPPERS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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[pm530]

National Hockey League - Matchup Notes

NHL


Sunday, November 11

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NHL – Matchup Notes
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Sunday's key NHL matchup notes

Detroit Red Wings at Chicago Blackhawks (+150, 5 ½)

With a 4-3 shootout loss in Chicago on Oct. 6 and a 3-2 home loss to the Blackhawks six days later, Detroit is at risk of dropping three straight in this series for the first time since Nov. 3-Dec. 29, 2000.

Dan Cleary has been held pointless in two matchups this season with the Blackhawks, who drafted him 13th overall in 1997.


Minnesota Wild at Colorado Avalanche (-190, 5 ½)

The Wild have won only four of 16 contests at the Pepsi Center.

The Avs are one of the toughest teams in the league at home, going 8-1-0.

Joe Sakic has 33 points in 36 games against Minnesota.

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