NBA Week 6 thread (40-22, +$2226 on the year)...

[brewers7]

There are lots of ways to coat-tail a handicapper on a forum...

For people who use units, I simply things for you by using $100 (a nice round number) as a 1-unit bet, and you can either just blindly follow my bets if you wish, as that is up to you, as I pick my spots the way I see fit...

However, I also try and provide folks with as much information as I can to help people out in the NBA...

I try and preview and provide information for every game daily (if time permits) and since I handicap every game, side and total, I also provide all my picks for tracking purposes every day...

Some people may say "so what?"...

But for others paying attention, there have been other opportunities to make money these first 5 Weeks of the NBA season if you were looking at all my picks...

In the next post, I break down the first 5 weeks for all my picks for tracking purposes, but it may not be very readable on this forum, so it may be easier to read if you use this link (and hopefully you have MS-Excel)...

http://www.tricountyleague.com/brewe...king_06-07.xls

I have a friend who has a grinding type betting style and he told me last spring that I should be betting a lot more games in the NBA (if not all of them) and employ a grinders' mentality and I could garner more profit that way...

Now keep in mind that if you are at a Sportsbook betting exchange like Mansion, you can basically get ZERO juice with all of your bets if you list your plays at +100 (and many times you can get +105 or even +110, but +100 is basically a lock)...And you only get charged half-of-1% for every bet you win, which basically means if you get every bet at +100, you are paying .005% juice on every play...

Nice...

Now look at my first 5 weeks of results in the next post (or in the link)...

In 33 days of the regular season to this point, I have 4 days with a losing record...Sure, there are many 50-50 days, but with no juice, those are break-even days...1 losing week, but the 4 winning weeks were very big winning weeks...

My Sides are usually better than my Totals and to this point of the season, it breaks down this way:

Sides 143-100-4 for 58.8%
Totals 136-110-1 for 55.3%
Overall 279-210-5 for 57.1%

That is EVERY Game for the entire season...

I was over 61% after 2 weeks, but that kind of percentage is not sustainable for the entire season picking every side and total, and even this current percentage will continue to slide all season long...

But the bottom line is this:

If you were using an exchange like Mansion and listing every bet at +100 and bet all of my picks for tracking purposes, you would be up 69 units right now, minus the Mansion fee (which you only have to pay if you win the bet as you do NOT have to pay any juice on losses), and that fee would be 279 x .005 which is a meager 1.4 units, because you only pay 5 cents of juice per winning bet on every $100 (as I understand it)...

So if you were blindly following my posted bets, you'd be up 22 units so far, but if you were a little bit innovative, you could be up about 69 units right now...

And oh-by-the-way, had you used ALL of my picks for tracking purposes every day this season for the ********* NBA season contest, you would in FIRST place in that contest, up $24,000, and the current leader in that contest has $20,750...

I guess maybe I should have done that, but I sometimes forget to go there and list my picks anyway...

[brewers7]

date Sides Totals Overall
10/31 1-1 ==1-1== 2-2
11/1 =8-5 ==7-6 ==15-11
11/2 =2-0 ==0-2 ==2-2
11/3 =9-3-1 =8-5 =17-8-1
11/4 =5-3-1 =7-2= 12-5-1
11/5 =3-2 ==2-3== 5-5
11/6 =4-3 ==5-2== 9-5
11/7 =6-0 ==3-3== 9-3
11/8 =4-7 ==8-3== 12-10
11/9 =3-0== 2-1== 5-1
11/10 4-6== 7-3== 11-9
11/11 5-3 ==3-5== 8-8
11/12 4-3 ==5-2== 9-5
11/13 1-2 ==2-1== 3-3
11/14 4-4 ==4-4== 8-8
11/15 6-3 ==4-4-1= 10-7-1
11/16 2-0 ==1-1== 3-1
11/17 5-5 ==6-4== 11-9
11/18 12-1 =4-9== 16-10
11/19 1-1 ==1-1== 2-2
11/20 5-2 ==2-5== 7-7
11/21 3-4 ==4-3== 7-7
11/22 8-5 ==7-6 ==15-11
11/24 5-7-1 =7-6== 12-13-1
11/25 4-7 ==5-6== 9-13
11/26 2-3== 2-3== 4-6
11/27 4-0== 3-1== 7-1
11/28 7-2 ==6-3== 13-5
11/29 5-4 ==5-4== 10-8
11/30 1-1 ==0-2== 1-3
12/1 =3-6-1=7-3== 10-9-1
12/2 =4-6== 6-4== 10-10
12/3 =3-1== 2-2== 5-3


Sides % ======Totals %======= Weekly % ==== Overall %
28-14-2 66.7%== 25-19 =56.8% == 53-33-2 61.6% == 53-33-2= 61.6%
30-22 =57.7% == 33-19 =63.5% == 63-41 ==60.6% == 116-74-2 61.1%
31-16 =66.0% == 22-24-1 47.8% == 53-40-1 57.0% == 169-114-3 59.7%
27-28-1 49.1%== 27-29 =48.2% == 54-57-1 48.6% == 223-171-4 56.6%
27-20-1 57.4% == 29-19 =60.4% == 56-39-1 58.9% == 279-210-5 57.1%

[drugstuntman]

thanks for all the data, insight and winners brewer....I know a lot of us are glad to have you here and we have a long season ahead that should be profitable many times over!

[brewers7]

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Early looks at Monday's games:

Dallas at Washington: Dallas has won 12 straight after an 0-4 start...How long can this go on?...Dallas is 13-3 SU & 9-7 ATS the last 16 against WAS and the last 12 has seen 6-5-1 to the Over...Quick-revenge spot from 11/21 where Dallas killed Washington at Dallas by 27 after the game was tied at the half...The pace was quick in that game before Dallas pulled away, but both teams shot terribly, so the total only hit 187...WASH shot 35.5% and DAL shot 39.8% in that game, but there were 174 shots taken in the contest and 46 FTs...I expect about the same number of shots and the same pace, so if both teams get to even 45% for the game, we should have an Over here...I may look at a 1Q Over, too as dallas has had a lot of those this season...The public will pound Dallas, but for me it is WAS or no-play...Also a chart-play to the over for Dallas because after 6 straight Unders, they have had 2 Overs and for WASH, a slight chart-play to the Over because after 6 of 7 Under, they have gone Over 3 of 4 and 2 straight...

Memphis at New York: Damon Stoudamire is questioable for Memphis...Similar situation here to the last game for the Knicks except for the 4-of-5 spots...A bad Road team vs. a bad Home team...NY is 1-7 SU at Home while MEMP is 1-8 on the Road...Revenge spot for MEMP after an opening-night loss to NY at Home in triple-OT...Not sure what weight that really holds here, but MEMP has been outstanding historically the last 5 years vs. the Eastern Conference...This is a chart-play to fade MEMP after a C6, they have a NC2 now...Under looks intriguing here as 4 of the last 5 went Under (in regulation) h2h...And after that 79-point 2H against TOR last time out at Home for NY, I wonder if this entire game might be closer to the 79-point half tonight in both halves against MEMP...Knicks defense not as bad as people think as they are 10th in the league in FG% allowed and MEMP is 8th in the league in Points allowed per game...

Golden State at San Antonio: Jason Richardson is probable but not 100% healthy for GS...Manu Ginobili is questionable for SA, although during the last SA telecast, the Spurs announcers did mention that Ginobili may play on Monday as that was his target date for returning...GS has lost 17 straight (6-11 ATS) at SA and has not won there since 2/14/97...9 Unders and 8 Overs during that losing streak...SA was 30-4 SU & 20-14 ATS vs. GS in the 34 previous meetings coming into this season and then lost at GS 111-102 on 11/27...The Spurs were on the back-end of a bk-2-bk that night and are 0-14 ATS (1-13 SU) in that spot their last 14 chances against teams with at least a .500 record...GS hasn't won since that big home win...Spurs haven't covered 3 straight and are struggling without Ginobili...GS only 4 Away games this season and are 1-3 SU & 2-2 ATS...GS 3 straight Overs and 6 of 7 Over...

Boston at Chicago: No line posted...Wally Szczerbiak is questionable and Paul Pirece and Kendrick Perkins are probable but not 100% healthy for Boston...Malik Allen and Chris Duhon are questionable for Chicago...Almost right on schedule, the Bulls have heated up now that they have some Home games after that bad 7-game Road trip...The Bulls have won 4 straight and are 3-0-1 ATS and they have 2 comfortable wins at Home since that Road trip...The Bulls have won and Covered 5 straight h2h vs. BOS...3 of the last 4 Over in this series...CHI has plenty of Home games coming up and some mediocre competition coming in this week, so look for them to get on a roll...The Celtics not terrible on the Road with a 3-2-1 ATS record and they are 4-2 to the Over...

Milwaukee at Utah: The Bucks have been an Over and Cover machine on this Road trip (3 Covers and 3 Overs) and have gone Over 4 straight...Their C3 has come after a NC5, so they are still a chart-play here...Utah started the season 7-2 ATS and are 3-6 ATS since and are 1-4 ATS after starting the season 12-1 SU...This h2h series has seen Utah go 7-2 SU and 9-0 ATS the last 9...The total is even more strange, because in the last 17 h2h meetings, the first 9 went Over, then 6 out of 7 Under, and now the last meeting, on 11/11 this season at MILW, did fly Over as michael Redd scored 57 points in that game...So this is a revenge-spot to boot for the Bucks...

Orlando at Sacramento: No line posted...Grant Hill is questionable for ORL...Ron Artest is questionable for SAC...The Magic saw their 6-game winning streak end last night in a big way, getting buried at Staples by the Clippers...ORL is 2nd in the league in FG% allowed, although they allowed LAC to shoot 60% last night...ORL has gone Over 2 of their 3 bk-2-bks and this is SAC's first game of the season when they have rest and their opponent does not...ORL 2-1 ATS in the back-end of bk-2-bks...SAC is 6-2 SU & 5-3 ATS at Home...The Home Team has won 9 of the last 10 in this h2h series...

Indiana at LA Lakers: Stephen Jackson is questionable for Indiana...The Home team has won 7 straight & 8 of 9 in this h2h series...2 straight Unders and 7 of 9 Under in this series...Indy ending their longest Road Trip of the season...The Lakers have been outstanding at Home at 9-2 (10-2 if you count the win vs. the Clips last time out in the same building)...Indy 4 straight Overs on this trip...The Lakers had 4 Overs and a push before going Under last time out...Indy their 5th game in 7 days while the Lakers are playing their 10th straight game with at least 1 day's rest and are 7-3 in those games...

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[ironman95]

Hey Brewers7, right down the road from you off 78 (west from where u are). Thanks for the info. Will you post your picks? Look forward to seeing them. Thanks again.

[brewers7]

Possible cold-streak coming, hard to say, so I may mix it up a bit this week and I am looking into other possible plays for today...

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Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... ================================================== ======================
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
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Preseason posted plays: 9-3-1
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Season To Date: 40-22, +$2226

Sides: 18-10, +$907, Totals: 14-9, +$851, 1H bets: 1-1, -$4, 2H bets: 3-1, +$193, ML: 1-1, +$29, Quarters: 3-0, +$250

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Monday, December 4

Dallas/Washington over 204 -- $150 to win $154 --- (or Dal/Wash over 204 @2.03, 1.5/10, Pinnacle)

This line is shooting downwards like crazy, and I am not sure why...Went down from 206 to 204 in the last 30 minutes...Don't see it going any lower than this, but what di I know?...These teams played 11/21/06 and the total was just a 187, but the game was a blow-out...Dallas won by 27...The pace was quick in that game before Dallas pulled away, but both teams shot terribly, so the total only hit 187...WASH shot 35.5% and DAL shot 39.8% in that game, but there were 174 shots taken in the contest and 46 FTs...I expect about the same number of shots and the same pace, so if both teams get to even 45% for the game, we should have an Over here...Also a chart-play to the over for Dallas because after 6 straight Unders, they have had 2 Overs and for WASH, a slight chart-play to the Over because after 6 of 7 Under, they have gone Over 3 of 4 and 2 straight...Dallas has scored at least 103 the last 5 straight meetings h2h here, and I don't see them scoring less than that and I see WASH breaking 100, too, in what should be a tight game down the stretch, so maybe some late fouling puts this Over in the final minute if it hasn't already gone Over by then...

Good Luck...brewers7
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Monday's Picks for tracking purposes:

pending...

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Please note: Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...
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Recent Results:
Yesterday: 0-1 (-$54)
Last 3 days: 1-2 (-$62)
Last 7 days: 5-2 (+$488)
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Database sample links: http://www.tricountyleague.com/TeamSample.xls
http://www.tricountyleague.com/SeasonBySeasonSample.xls
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Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Money management…Bet with your head, not over it...Stay humble…Act professional…
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[BigWeiner]

I like it too, good luck

[bwade210]

Thanks for the writeups play, good luck my friend!

[brooox]

brewers any hockey plays tonight?

[Kaptain]

glad to see you on that Over tonighgt, I'm also on that play----gl---kapt

[frankb03]

Continued success to you

[Dawgleg]

Thanks Brewer

[ironman95]

Thanks for your hard work Brewer! Look forward to seeing other postings!!

[Spark]

brewers any hockey plays tonight?

to the forum brooox ....



Good Luck brewers ...

[moondog22]

brewers7,I very rarely if ever go in to another's thread and say anything negative,but are you promoting Mansion and if not please give other example of books to use