NBA Week 6 thread (40-22, +$2226 on the year)...

[brewers7]

prediction:

b7's plays will be on either:

1) GSt
or
2) NJ

GREAT read...I really want to bet both of those but am trigger-shy right now...

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Tough, tough loss last night, but glad I got something back with the 1Q bet and am glad I didn't raise my bet to $200 just yet as I did increase my bankroll to the point where it was time to increase the bet slightly (like I did after I got a little bit over $1000 up, as I bumped plays up to $150), but I smelled a cold streak and decided to hold off bumping my bet up a bit until this mini-storm passes...Went 5-9 on all picks yesterday for my 4th losing day out of 34 days, but my top 3 Sides went 3-0 and I have always considered those my money-plays, but the rest of the picks went to shit...I have been doing this for a while and can sometimes sniff out the impending cold streaks...I will lower my bet until I see more consistency on my part...And you should, too...

================================================== ======================
Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... ================================================== ======================
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
================================================== ======================
Preseason posted plays: 9-3-1
================================================== ======================
Season To Date: 41-23, +$2126

Sides: 18-10, +$907, Totals: 14-10, +$701, 1H bets: 1-1, -$4, 2H bets: 3-1, +$193, ML: 1-1, +$29, Quarters: 4-0, +$300

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Tuesday, December 5

Golden State/Houston under 193.5 -- $102 to win $100 --- (or GS/Hou under 193.5 @1.980, 1/10, Pinnacle)

Like both the Side and Total here as I think GS can win this straight up after a 40-point loss, but I just have a nagging gut-feeling about Houston tonight that keeps me from pulling the trigger, so I will go with the total instead...Have I gone mad taking GS Under such a "low" total?...I don't think so...GS is 3-0 to the Under in back-enders this season...5 of the last 6 trips to HOU for GS have gone Under...Following that 269 debacle at Denver, GS played the next night and had a 169 total and beat Utah outright...I feel Houston will control the pace and play half-court and slow this thing down, and quite frankly, as much as GS likes to run, they can play the half-court game if they want to just fine...HOU is playing some drastic Unders and the pace of their games have been incredibly slow recently...A team off a blow-out loss will generally make an attempt at defense the next time out, and that 269 at Denver is the example I will cite again as GS played zone and held the best shooting team at the time (Utah) to 32.5% shooting that game and Utah had been playing Overs at that time just like GS was playing Overs and we had a 169...If Houston controls the pace, then this will be at 180, tops...HOU just played a 193 against PHOE AT Phoenix, so why should this game reach 194?...

Good Luck...brewers7
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Tuesday's Picks for tracking purposes:

Sides:

1) NJ, 2) GS, 3) Sac, 4) Port, 5) LAC, 6) Sea

Totals:

1) GS un, 2) Port ov, 3) Sac ov, 4) NJ un, 5) Sea ov, 6) LAC un

================================================== ======================
Please note: Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...
================================================== ======================
Recent Results:
Yesterday: 1-1 (-$100)
Last 3 days: 1-3 (-$312)
Last 7 days: 5-3 (+$288)
================================================== ======================
Database sample links: http://www.tricountyleague.com/TeamSample.xls
http://www.tricountyleague.com/SeasonBySeasonSample.xls
================================================== ======================
Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Money management…Bet with your head, not over it...Stay humble…Act professional…
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[BigWeiner]

I like that call, just played it UNDER 194.5

[GrandPa]

Also got it at under 195 earlier today. GL ev1

[Dawgleg]

Thanks Brewer

[soxx9]

Good luck tonight....on it as well

As always, keep those write ups coming. They are a great help!

[SACPAC]

good luck b7

[molta02]

thanks and GL tonite

[brewers7]

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Early looks at Wednesday's games:

Orlando at Indiana: Some early pounding on the Under here as once again, an Orlando total was maybe posted too high...ORL 11-3-1 to the Under their last 15 and the Magic are second in the league in FG% allowed...6 in a row and 8 of 9 have gone Under h2h in this series...Indy is Home after their longest Road Trip of the season (6 games)...These teams have played twice already this season (once in ORL and once in Indy) and the totals for both games were 187...The Home Teams won both games, but Indy has Covered both...This is ORL's 6th and final game of their current Road Trip in which they are 4-1 SU & 3-2 ATS...The Pacers were beaten fairly soundly in the final 2 games of their Road trip...

Toronto at Cleveland: Chris Bosh (eye virus) and Morris Peterson are questionable for Toronto...Larry Hughes is probable for Cleveland...However, if you read the Toronto Star, both Bosh and Peterson feel ready to go on Wednesday although Bosh is going to be "re-evaluated after Wednesday morning's shoot-around" before an "official decision" is made and as far as Peterson goes, it sounds like he IS going to play but the only question is whether he starts or not...The Toronto Star also had an article talking about how Coach Sam Mitchell has officially ditched the run-and-gun-and-get-100-shots-a-game offense that the raptors worked on in the preseason and are going with "quality possessions over quantity"...The reason is because the Raptors are dead last in the league in 3-point shooting percentage...So it's hard to run a Phoenix-like offense when nobody can shoot from behind the arc...Cleveland is coming off their worst shooting game of the season and in fact, it was the worst shooting game by any team this season as CLE shot just 28.2% form the floor and scored just 63 points in an 18-point loss at Houston on Saturday...So this would be an EXTREME bounce-back spot for CLE, plus a revenge spot for an 8-point loss to the raptors at TOR on 11/22...Plus, Larry Hughes returns (although generally speaking fom a handicapping point of view, this could hurt CLE)...CLE is 6-3 SU & 5-4 ATS their last 9 vs. Toronto at Home, with 6 of those games going Under...Toronto is Under 6 of their last 8 overall...

San Antonio at Charlotte: Big-time revenge spot here for SA while it is also a let-down spot for CHAR, who just beat Detroit here on Sunday...The Spurs won by 40 their last time out vs. GS with the return of Manu Ginobili...The Spurs won by 8 here last season and by 19 2 years ago in CHAR...Have to believe the key factor here is avenging the OT loss to the Bobcats at Home on 11/15 for the Spurs...These teams pretty much play right around 180, as the 187 at SA was achieved with OT, and it still stayed Under, while these teams have played every game h2h Under but 1 and that was their first meeting where they had a 189 to go Over the 187 total by a bucket...Chart-play to the Under here for Charlote as they had 5 straight Overs before going Under last time out...Spurs have gone Over 2 straight and have played a lot of Overs this season, but I wonder about this Vegas total being set a tad high here...

Memphis at Boston: Damon Stoudamire is questionable for Memphis...Wally Szczerbiak is doubtful for Boston...Still a chart-play to fade MEMP in this spot because after a C6, they are currently on a NC3...However, BOS is 1-5 SU & ATS their last 6 games...Even though BOS is 7-2 SU their last 9 games vs. MEMP, the Celtics are just 1-8 ATS in those games...Nothing significant sticking out on the total...

Washington at NY Knicks: Jerome James is questionable for NY...Yet another bad Road team comes to MSG, as in consecutive games, the 3 worst Road teams in the league are playing the Knicks at MSG...TOR won on Saturday, while MEMP could not on Monday...Now the Wiz come to MSG for the second time already this season...The Knicks have just 2 wins at MSG all year and the first was against the Wiz (by 20 on 11/15) and their 2nd win came 2 days ago...The Wiz are winless on the Road, 0-8 (3-5 ATS) and are undoubtedly tired of hearing about their futility on the Road...The Wiz are also coming off a big win vs. Dallas 2 days ago and although a let-down spot may seem to be in the cards, I feel the Wiz will use that win as a confidence and momentum builder...This is a revenge spot and I feel WASH can take this one...Total set at 206 even though this last meeting at MSG was a 184...NY 5-2 to the Under their last 7 Home games...WAS is 6-2 to the Under on the Road this season...This h2h series has 5 straight and 6 of 7 Under...

Houston at Minnesota: Revenge spot here for Minny after losing at HOU on 11/28...The Road team has won 8 of the last 10 and covered 9 of the last 10 in this h2h series...Minny 2-1 SU & ATS when they have rest and their opponents do not, but surprisingly, they are 2-0 SU & ATS on the Road and 0-1 SU & ATS at Home in this spot...HOU is 1-2 SU & ATS on the back-end of bk-2-bks this season...Even though the last 2 have gone Under h2h, 6 of the previous 7 had gone Over...Minny has 4 straight Unders, while HOU had 6 straight Unders before having an Over last night, so they are suddenly a chart-play to the Over, but these teams played a 157 on 11/28, with just 144 shots and 23 FTs taken in that game...Very slow pace...Houston is now #1 in FG% allowed and Minnesota is 6th...

Portland at Milwaukee: No total posted...Charlie Villanueva and Maurice Williams are questionable for MILW (although this was the target date for Villanueva to return)...MILW 28th and PORT 29th in the league in FG% allowed...PORT 2-2 ATS in the back-end of bk-2-bks and MILW is 0-3 SU & ATS when they have rest and their opponent does not, with all 3 games being at Home...PORT certainly in a let-down spot off a big upset win at DET last night...MILW 2-4 SU & 1-5 ATS at Home this season...These teams play Overs against each other...Pure and simple...6 straight and 9 of 11 and 14 of 17 and 21 of 27 Over h2h in this series...

Atlanta at Denver: Nene Hiliario and Joe Smith are probable for Denver...ATL 1-2 SU & ATS this season on the back-end of bk-2-bks, but in all 3 games, their opponent was also on a back-ender...DEN is rested here and are 6-1 SU & ATS their last 7...ATL has dominated this h2h series historically, winning 8 of the last 11 SU & ATS, but DEN has won 3 of the last 4, covering once...Both of the games between these 2 teams went Over last season h2h...

Philadelphia at Chicago: Kyle Korver is questionable for Philly...The Sixers are generally a fairly predictable team as they usually Cover on the Road getting points and do not Cover at Home as a Favorite...CHI has won and Covered all 3 Home games rather easily since returning from their 7-game Road trip...This is a revenge spot for CHI as their last loss came at Philly on 11/24...The Bulls have won 5 straight since then and are 4-0-1 ATS...The Sixers have lost 4 straight overall which matches their season high and hey have lost 8 of 9 with their only win coming against this Bulls' team...Are the Bulls suring up their defense now that they have had time to practice at Home and work out the kinks?...The points look good here for this ESPN game...

New Orleans at LA Lakers: No total posted...Bobby Jackson is doubtful while David West and Peja Stoyakovic are still out for NO...Kobe Bryant is now questionable (looks like a game-time decision) and Brian Cook is also questionable for LAL...Still no scorers for the Hornets, yet they somehow had a 219 at Home vs. the Bulls in their last outing last FRI, during a points-points-points weekend in the NBA...Lakers a bit of a chart-play to the under after some Overs, as they have gone Under 2 straight...5 straight and 8 of 9 have gone Over in this h2h series, with the 8 Overs all hitting at least 190...LAL has won 3 straight and 7 of 8 h2h and covered 6 of 8 in this series...The Hornets have Not Covered 5 straight overall but managed a push last time out while the lakers have Covered 3 straight Overall...

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[GrandPa]

Houston #1 in FG % allowed and points allowed. Their D is sick right now, so the first look every day has to be at the UNDER until it gets adjusted way down, yesterday notwithstanding ( GSt Matador defense, and HOU hot as firecrackers)

[rocko]

HEY BREWER JUST WONDERING WHAT U DO FOR A LIVING CAUSE U SURE DO HAve SOME GREAAAAAAAT WRITE AND STATS JUST DO NOT KNOW WERE U WOULD FIND THE TIME UNLESS U DO THIS FOR A LIVING???IM NOSEY I KNOW BUT HELL U HAVE A LOT MORE TIME THEN MOST GREATTTTTTTT JOB ON YOUR THREAD THANKS FOR DOING THAT
GLLLLLLLLL
GET-R-DON PEACE

[bwade210]

Good luck today my friend!

[vinnyvegas]

HEY BREWER JUST WONDERING WHAT U DO FOR A LIVING CAUSE U SURE DO HAve SOME GREAAAAAAAT WRITE AND STATS JUST DO NOT KNOW WERE U WOULD FIND THE TIME UNLESS U DO THIS FOR A LIVING???IM NOSEY I KNOW BUT HELL U HAVE A LOT MORE TIME THEN MOST GREATTTTTTTT JOB ON YOUR THREAD THANKS FOR DOING THAT
GLLLLLLLLL
GET-R-DON PEACE

Rocko,

This is what he does for a living...

[brewers7]

I like several tonight, but since I am in the midst of a slump that I pretty much predicted a few days back, it is wise NOT to bet sevral games and wise NOT to raise my bet when my performance has been incredibly sub-par...2 straight losing days with my tracking picks to boot, so this should be the obvious red flag for followers to back off my plays and either fade me, stay away from my picks, or lower your bet the same way I have...Money management is the key to long-term success...We are in Week 6 of a 24-week regular season, so there is a long way to go, MANY opportunities ahead, so it would be foolish to be raisng bets now and blowing big chunks of your bankroll by chasing now...Let's pull back the bets until I am back on track and "feeling it" again or just stay away from my picks for a day or 2...

================================================== ======================
Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... ================================================== ======================
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
================================================== ======================
Preseason posted plays: 9-3-1
================================================== ======================
Season To Date: 41-24, +$2024

Sides: 18-10, +$907, Totals: 14-11, +$599, 1H bets: 1-1, -$4, 2H bets: 3-1, +$193, ML: 1-1, +$29, Quarters: 4-0, +$300

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Wednesday, December 6

Washington Wizards Pick -- $100 to win $104 --- (or Washington @2.020, 1/10, Pinnacle)

Going back to what works for me many times, and that is, just picking the first game that jumps off the page at me...The Wizards is that game for Wednesday...The Knicks have just 2 wins at MSG all year and the first was against the Wiz (by 20 on 11/15) and their 2nd win came 2 days ago...The Wiz are winless on the Road, 0-8 (3-5 ATS) and are undoubtedly tired of hearing about their futility on the Road...The Wiz are also coming off a big win vs. Dallas 2 days ago and although a let-down spot may seem to be in the cards, I feel the Wiz will use that win as a confidence and momentum builder...This is a revenge spot and I feel WASH can take this one...Coach Eddie Jordan said before the Dallas game that he wants "fighters" and the team responded by thrashing the Mavs, leading by as many as 31 in that game...This 0-8 start on the Road is the worst start on the Road in franchise history and the players are very aware of it...It's a fairly quick revenge spot here for the Wiz and I don't see them losing twice at MSG in just a 3-week period of time...

Good Luck...brewers7
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Wednesday's Picks for tracking purposes:

pending...

================================================== ======================
Please note: Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...
================================================== ======================
Recent Results:
Yesterday: 0-1 (-$102)
Last 3 days: 1-3 (-$256)
Last 7 days: 4-4 (+$36)
================================================== ======================
Database sample links: http://www.tricountyleague.com/TeamSample.xls
http://www.tricountyleague.com/SeasonBySeasonSample.xls
================================================== ======================
Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Money management…Bet with your head, not over it...Stay humble…Act professional…
================================================== ======================

[vinnyvegas]

Sounds like a plan!

[GrandPa]

Makes sense. GL b7