NBA Week 6 thread (40-22, +$2226 on the year)...

[brewers7]

Sorry folks, but had some family issues to deal with today...Keeping it small and may ramp it up this weekend again...

================================================== ======================
Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... ================================================== ======================
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
================================================== ======================
Preseason posted plays: 9-3-1
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Season To Date: 42-24, +$2128

Sides: 19-10, +$1011, Totals: 14-11, +$599, 1H bets: 1-1, -$4, 2H bets: 3-1, +$193, ML: 1-1, +$29, Quarters: 4-0, +$300

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Thursday, December 7

Detroit Pistons +7 -- $104 to win $100 --- (or Detroit +7 hcp @1.971, 1/10, Pinnacle)
Detroit Pistons Pick -- $25 to win $65 --- (or Detroit Pick @3.600, .25/10, Pinnacle)

The Pistons got blistered by 37 last year here, but they were in a bad situational spot that game...DET had just beaten HOU the night before and were the last undefeated team in the league at that point at 8-0 and Dallas had 2 days rest...The Pistons obviously were sleepwalking through their their last 2 games against CHAR and PORT...Detroit WILL be motivated for this one...Dallas is still going to be in a bit of a let-down mode after the winning streak ended, and the Pistons are not as bad as their last 2 losses, and that is obe thing you need to remember about the NBA and the constant momentum shifts...A team is generally not as good as their last win or as bad as their last loss...

Good Luck...brewers7
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Thursday's Picks for tracking purposes:

Sides:

1) Det, 2) NJ, 3) Mia

Totals:

1) NJ un, 2) Mia ov, 3) Det ov

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Please note: Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...
================================================== ======================
Recent Results:
Yesterday: 1-0 (+$104)
Last 3 days: 2-2 (-$98)
Last 7 days: 4-4 (-$10)
================================================== ======================
Database sample links: http://www.tricountyleague.com/TeamSample.xls
http://www.tricountyleague.com/SeasonBySeasonSample.xls
================================================== ======================
Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Money management…Bet with your head, not over it...Stay humble…Act professional…
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[bwade210]

Good luck tonight my friend!

[BillMill71]

Good Luck and best to your family

[molta02]

thanks for another nice nite, esp. det ML

[TCB in a Flash]

nice work!

[KR-V3]

you are my hero!!

[brewers7]

Thanx guys...

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Early looks at Friday's games:

Houston at Charlotte: How low can we go here?...Both h2h games at CHAR were Unders and the Bobcats have a chart-play to the Under...3 of the last 4 h2h have gone Under in regulation time...(once in ORL and once in Indy) and the totals for both games were 187...Both h2h games at CHAR between these two have gone to Overtime...Overall, HOU has gone Under 7 of 8...HOU leads the league now in FG% allowed while CHAR is 4th...

Detroit at Orlando: Can this be anything but a let-down spot for Detroit?...Big win last night at Dallas and now they go and play the Magic coming off a fairly decisive loss at Indiana...Detroit's defense improving as they are now 12th in the league in FG% allowed while Orlando is 2nd...DET is 4-2 ATS on the back-end of bk-2-bks this season, but 1-1 ATS on the Road...ORL just 2-3 ATS when they have rest and their opponent does not, but they haven't lost 2 straight since Week 1 of the season...The last 2 in this h2h series have gone Under after 7 straight Overs...

Portland at Indiana: Indy has won and covered 6 straight in this h2h series and 4 of the last 5 in this h2h series at Indy have gone Under...Both teams have gone Under in their last 2 games overall...Gotta wonder here if Indy has an eye on their game at Cleveland on Saturday...PORT on their 3rd game of a 6-game Road trip...

Phoenix at Boston: No lines posted...Wally Szczerbiak is doubtful for Boston...Gotta wonder how much gas ins in the Phoenix tank after playing a double-OT thriller Thursday night at NJ, with 318 points scored?...PHOE lost a 152-149 double-OT game at Home vs. SEA last season on 1/22/06, and DID go Over their next game at Orlando, but they had a day's rest for the Orlando game...PHOE had 3 starters play more than 46 minutes last night...PHOE has now won 8 in a row, too...Boston has lost 4 in a row...The Away Team in this h2h series has 5 of the last 6...The last 2 in this h2h series have gone Under after there had been 5 Overs and a push the previous 6 meetings...

LA Clippers at San Antonio: Getting Manu Ginobili back seems to have been just the antidote the Spurs needed to get rolling...Since Ginobili's return, the Spurs demolished GS by 40 and then thrashed the Bobcats by 20 at CHAR...This is not what the Clippers need to hear...Why?...As they said in the movie Slapshot, San Antonio "OWNS" the Clippers in recent years, winning 29 of the last 33 games in this h2h series (21-11-1 ATS), including 9 of the last 10...The Spurs have also won 7 straight and are 16-1 SU & 13-3-1 ATS vs. the Clips at Home the last 17 meetings...And when it goes bad, it goes bad because the Clips played GREAT at SA last year on 12/13/05 and lost by 8 in OT (outscored 11-3) to NOT Cover the 7-point spread...The Clips continue to under-achieve, but I wonder if they can rise up here and get under the Vegas number?...The last 25 meetings in this h2h2 series sees an 18-5-2 tally to the Under (and one of the pushes was the aforementioned OT game)...So the last 3 at SA h2h have gone Under in regulation and 9 of the last 13 in SA have gone Under...

Utah at Minnesota: Fishy line here with minny as an early FAV...Of course, I am not one bit surprised to see 91% of the early bets going on Utah and this has been the heaviest bet game at this juncture of the morning...Is Vegas giving us a free winner here?...Are the powers-at-be that reside at Zip Code 89109 in their Ivory Towers with their Magic 8-ball saying "Merry Christmas" early to people paying attention??...Is Vegas telling us to go ahead and bet the farm on Minny, or are they SCREAMING at us to also add the beach house to the bet on Minny here?... Utah will be a FAV by mid-afternoon on Friday or my name is not brewers7 (well, ok, it isn't, but still)...Because where is the evidence to show Minny is going to win this one?...Utah won the last 3 games h2h last season including winning both games at Minnesota comfortably...Is Utah looking ahead to a Dallas tilt at Home on 12/11, their next game?...Minny has Covered 7 of their last 8 and have gone Under 5 straight overall...Utah has become an Under team since AK47 has gotten settled back in after his return from injury as Utah is under 4 of their last 6 overall...Minny is 3rd now in FG% allowed and Utah is 12th...

Washington at Philadelphia: No lines posted...Allen Iverson is questionable for Philly...WAS got their first Road win of the season, winning by 11 at MSG vs. the Knicks their last time out while Philly has come crashing back to reality in a big way after a surprising 3-0 start...Since then, Philly has gone 2-12, losing 5 straight and 9 of 10...The Sixers did nothing to upgrade their team in the offseason and they are going nowhere this season, even in the pathetic Atlantic Division, where 38 wins will be a lock to get someboady a division title...Philly will be lucky to get 28...Now that I am done bashing my team, I will glance at this matchup and see that the home Team has won 6 of the alst 7 in this h2h series, going 5-2 ATS...Philly's perimeter defense was horrid last time out at CHI, as the Bulls had wide-open looks all night long and shot an NBA-high 61.5% from the field in that demolition on ESPN...Well, guess what?...The Wiz have some decent outside shooters last time I looked...Arenas, Butler & Jamison may combine for another 80 on Friday (they combined for 81 at MSG last time out)...But strictly from a handicapping point of view, I would think Philly would bounce-back from that 27-point debacle on National TV last time out...Yet I see a Wizards team who may be hitting their stride now after losing 7 of 8, because they have now won 4 of 5 and their coach asked for "fighters" earlier in the week and the team has responded with a Home throttling of Dallas and followed that up wih their first Road win...2 teams going in opposite directions here, and you might even say there is a chart-play to take WAS after 8 straight Road losses, they now have their first win...These teams have gone Over 7 of their last 10 h2h...

Toronto at Chicago: Morris Peterson is available to play for Toronto...Tyrus Thomas is questionable for Chicago...The Bulls are rolling, rolling, rolling --RAWHIDE since that disastrous 7-game Road trip, where they lost thei first 6 games...They won their finale at MSG and then have moved on to win 5 more in a row, bringing their win streak to 6, Covering 5 and pushing once...I guess people aren't talking or caring too much about Ben Wallace and his headband any more...Toronto is also taking the same trek they did last year...After starting 0-8 SU & ATS last season, Toronto went on to become the best ATS team in the league from that point onwards...Toronto started this season 1-6 ATS, and since then have been a Cover machine, going 9-2 ATS...Do you want to talk about a Moneyline chart-play?...How about this...The Bulls are 13-0 SU & ATS against Toronto the last 13 meetings...Yes, 13-0 SU AND ATS...But here's the funny part...Toronto had won the previous 16 meetings between these 2 teams...And before that, CHI had won 8 straight...Ok, enough...But 13 straight SU & ATS cannot be ignored...8 of the last 12 have gone Over h2h...TOR Under 7 of their last 9 and have ditched that run-and-gun offense...

Memphis at Milwaukee: Charlie Villanueva is questionable for MILW...Even when MEMP wasn't very good, they had a good record vs. the Eastern Conference, and once again, The Griz are 4-5 vs. the East, while being just 1-8 vs. the West SU...MILW has Covered 4 of 5 (including their miracle OT Cover last time out) after a NC5 overall...MEMP won last time out at BOS...MEMP is 6-2 SU & 7-1 ATS vs. Milwaukee the last 8 h2h meetings...6 of these 8 have gone Under...

New Orleans at Seattle: No lines posted...Bobby Jackson is doubtful while David West and Peja Stoyakovic are still out for NO...Ray Allen expected to miss for SEA...This is the second game without Ray Allen for the Sonics...They rose up and beat Atlanta fairly comfortably last time out, but I wouldn't expect the same here...It is typical for teams to rise up that first game without a star player to win...But the let-down spot occurs next time out...Well, today is the next time out and the streaky Hornets are coming to town, not Santa Claus...The Hornets were a streaky ATS team last year and are picking up right where they left off this year...C3, NC4, C4, NC4, Push, now a Cover last time out in an impressive upset win at Staples over the Lakers...How did that happen?...They finally made the adjustment necessary to play well without 3 of their top scorers, who have been M.I.A. for several games now...The Hornets broke out offensively vs. CHI at Home for 108 points after a 77, 73, 79 & 83, with all 5 games being losses...But then they got 4 days off to reset the offense with the new pieces and came out with 105 as they beat the lakers on the Road by 16...They had 2 days off before the previous 2 games, too, and things clicked finally offensively in the 111-108 loss to Chicago, but now the final adjustments must have been made as they are now doing just fine offensively despite missing 3 of their 4 top guns...Obviously a chart-play here for the hornets and I don't see a let-down here, either, this team is just too streaky...The Hornets won 3 of the 4 meetings last season...3 of those games went Over, too, but I wonder about too many Overs without Ray-Ray, as the Sonics did stay Under without him last time out...

Atlanta at LA Lakers: Speedy Claxton is questionable for Atlanta...OK, we have a serious bounce-back spot for the Lakers and Atlanta is off an upset win at Denver last time out which brings us to our NBA Handicapping 101 Rule that states you always: Take the good bounce-back team off a loss vs. the bad let-down team off a win...And we are talking about a team that was an 8.5-point Fav last time out losing by 16 at Home now playing a team that was a 12-point Dog last time out who won straight up on the Road...Now before I hit the Submit button on a wager equaling half my bankroll, I must point out that this handicapping Rule of Thumb generally works better when we are not dealing with 9-point chalk...I hate laying chalk in the NBA, and especially anything over 6, but for me, it is Lakers or no bet here...

ATL did win outright here last season at Staples on 2/15/06, but this was coming off a 25-point pounding at SAC and they had 2 days rest to lick their wounds and the Lakers perhaps had a Valentine's Day hangover from eating too much chocolate...ATL has actually won 3 of the last 5 trips into Staples...I vividly remember ATL losing by 46 here on 1/9/04, but that was bad, bad luck because an angry Lakers team with Kobe, SHAQ, Peyton and the Mailman had just lost 4 straight on the Road and were coming off a 22-point pounding at Denver 2 days prior so there was no mercy shown to the Hawks that night...Anyway, I don't see a 46-point win here, but I do see a win, but I wonder if there is a look-ahead here for LAL as the Spurs come to Staples on Sunday...That might be enough to keep me off the lake-Show, but I see a more focused and concerted effort here and besides, Kobe wasn't 100% last time out and he'll be healthier tonight...The last 4 in this h2h series have gone Over, but since ATL put up a 194 at Denver, how does this go Over 198??...

Miami at Denver: Nene Hiliario and Joe Smith are questionable for Denver...The Heat continue to roll, or at least, Cover the spread, as they are 4-2 SU and 6-0 ATS their last 6...MIA is 2-1 ATS on the back-end of bk-2-bks this season so far...DEN is 2-2 ATS when they have rest and their opponents do not, but did not Cover in this spot last time out, losing outright vs. the Hawks...Denver has won 3 straight h2h vs. Miami, including a win over the Heat on 11/14...Revenge spot here for Miami?...Do they have enough left on this 4th and final game of this Road trip in the high altitude?...I am not too sure how focused DEN will be here when they go to Dallas on Saturday...They are in bounce-back mode and MIA is off a hard-fought Road OT-win on Thursday at SAC...These teams Over 4 of the last 5 h2h...

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[GrandPa]

These write-ups indicate the top leans for FRI NBA are:

LAL
LAL/ATL UNDER
Hou/Char UNDER
NO/OKC
CHI
Min/Utah Under
SA/LAC under

But what do I know, I just lost a game by 109 points, in the 4th highest scoring game in history

[vinnyvegas]

B7, BLOW OUT...Mavs never in it & my streak continues that when I go to game, it isn't much of one...boy they shot horribly and good thing I'm no Mavs homer cuz it would of sucked being a fan of them last night.

[drugstuntman]

cold streak? hell no !!!! nice work brewer

[thaikarate1]

What is h2h?

Thanks

[3rdmckid]

head to head

[brewers7]

================================================== ======================
Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... ================================================== ======================
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
================================================== ======================
Preseason posted plays: 9-3-1
================================================== ======================
Season To Date: 44-24, +$2293

Sides: 20-10, +$1111, Totals: 14-11, +$599, 1H bets: 1-1, -$4, 2H bets: 3-1, +$193, ML: 2-1, +$94, Quarters: 4-0, +$300

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Friday, December 8

Orlando Magic -4.5 -- $105 to win $100 --- (or Orlando -4.5 hcp @1.952, 1/10, Pinnacle)

Can this be anything but a let-down spot for Detroit?...Big win last night at Dallas and now they go and play the Magic coming off a fairly decisive loss at Indiana...Chauncy Billips is questionable and ESPN News said he "may not play" tonight...He twaked his hamstring and anybody who knows anything about hamstring injuries and playing sports knows that that type of injury is nothing to mess around with and that a hamstring injury of any kind heals slowly...If Billips plays, I may get burned here, but I am taking a shot at him being "out" here and beating the line move if he is announced "out"...And besides, this situation is somewhat similar to a spot earlier in the season where the Pistons lost 2 straight and then went into Staples to face the Lakers in a nationally televised game and won convincingly by 14...Then they got obliterated at GS the following night in a let-down spot by 32...ORL would love to send a message here that they may be the new Beasts of the East, so even though they have taken advantage of a fairly soft schedue getting some teams in favorable spots, BUT, with that said, ORL went into Utah with AK47 and won convincingly by 13, so this Magic team is no fluke...

New Orleans Hornets +3.5 -- $108 to win $100 --- (or New Orleans +3.5 hcp @1.926, 1/10, Pinnacle)
New Orleans Hornets Pick -- $25 to win $36 --- (or New Orleans Pick @2.430, .25/10, Pinnacle)

This is the second game without Ray Allen for the Sonics...They rose up and beat Atlanta fairly comfortably last time out, but I wouldn't expect the same here...It is typical for teams to rise up that first game without a star player to win...But the let-down spot occurs next time out...Well, today is the next time out and the streaky Hornets are coming to town, not Santa Claus...The Hornets were a streaky ATS team last year and are picking up right where they left off this year...C3, NC4, C4, NC4, Push, now a Cover last time out in an impressive upset win at Staples over the Lakers...How did that happen?...They finally made the adjustment necessary to play well without 3 of their top scorers, who have been M.I.A. for several games now...The Hornets broke out offensively vs. CHI at Home for 108 points after a 77, 73, 79 & 83, with all 5 games being losses...But then they got 4 days off to reset the offense with the new pieces and came out with 105 as they beat the lakers on the Road by 16...They had 2 days off before the previous 2 games, too, and things clicked finally offensively in the 111-108 loss to Chicago, but now the final adjustments must have been made as they are now doing just fine offensively despite missing 3 of their 4 top guns...Obviously a chart-play here for the Hornets and I don't see a let-down here, either, this team is just too streaky...The Hornets won 3 of the 4 meetings last season...And one more point about Seattle...They rose up without Ray Allen and shot 55% last time out in a decisive win vs. Atlanta, holding them to 38%...Big let-down spot for SEA after that win without Allen here tonight...

Good Luck...brewers7
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Friday's Picks for tracking purposes:

pending...

================================================== ======================
Please note: Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...
================================================== ======================
Recent Results:
Yesterday: 2-0 (+$165)
Last 3 days: 3-1 (+$167)
Last 7 days: 5-4 (+$5)
================================================== ======================
Database sample links: http://www.tricountyleague.com/TeamSample.xls
http://www.tricountyleague.com/SeasonBySeasonSample.xls
================================================== ======================
Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Money management…Bet with your head, not over it...Stay humble…Act professional…
================================================== ======================

[SustainDan]

gl brewski

[LeRoy]

GL tonite Brewers 7