NBA Week 4 thread (28-15, +$1566 on the year)...

[LVJimmy]

Nice calls on the Det game buddy...stay hot!!!

Thanks

[Tnbreakers]

Great call. Love the picks!!

[bwade210]

Thanks for the analysis and pick my friend!

[vinnyvegas]

B7, looks like the year is getting off to a great start. How's NHL treating you?

Have a great Turkey Day!!

[Moose21]

Brewers are there any plays that look good tonight? Appreciate your efforts!!

[brewers7]

B7, looks like the year is getting off to a great start. How's NHL treating you?

Have a great Turkey Day!!

So far, so good, Vinny...Doing well in NHL, too...


================================================== ======================
Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... ================================================== ======================
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
================================================== ======================
Preseason posted plays: 9-3-1
================================================== ======================
Season To Date: 31-17, +$1702

Sides: 14-6, +$879, Totals: 10-8, +$405, 1H bets: 1-1, -$4, 2H bets: 3-1, +$193, ML: 1-1, +$29, Quarters: 2-0, +$200

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Sorry for lateness, but with 14 NHL and 13 NBA games to handicap and phone calls coming in on NCAA games, it's been hectic...I will try and write up some notes on later games if there is time...

Wednesday, November 22

Atlanta Hawks +6.5 -- $100 to win $100

The Hawks have lost 3 straight but have covered 4 of the last 5 in DET, and we have DET playing a bk-2-bk here...DET is 2-1 ATS in this spot this year and Atlanta lost and did not Cover against Miami at Home in OT last time out with 3 days left and Miami was playing the back-end of a bk-2-bk...Rip Hamilton is questionable, but regardless, I am banking on the fact that ATL is not going to mess up 2 straight games in this situational spot, having 3 days rest against an unrested team, and the 6.5 points are a nice cushion...

Miami/San Antonio under 183 -- $104 to win $100

This h2h series had gone Under 13 straight and 16 of 17 before an Over took place the last meeting at Miami on 1/20/06...The Heat have not won at SA since 12/23/96 ...They have gone Under 7 straight in this building...The Spurs have gone Under every game (5 of them) at Home this season in regulation time and have played PHOE and NY at Home...This has been an Under series and I cannot get away from that fact...Miami stayed Under even with OT on their only back-ender this year, and that was ATL...

Golden State Warriors -3 -- $105 to win $100

Huge win for Denver last night and J.R. Smith had a career-high 36 points in the game of his life...Earl Boykins has the flu and is questionable, and he is a spark-plug and will be missed if he doesn't play again...Monta Ellis is probable and Baron Davis is still questionable, but I am playing the situational let-down spot here...Plus, DEN is 0-2 ATS in the back-end of bk-2-bks thus far, And GS has covered 3 straight at Home when they have rest and their opponents do not...I go by the closing line, so GS has covered 8 straight and this bothers me because there have been roughly 40 instances of a team covering 8 in a row the last 15 years and most of them end after 8 Covers...But, GS did NOT cover the opening line against PHOE, so I have to maybe throw this out the window this time and just stick with the situational spot and take the rested bounce-back team at Home vs. the let-down team on the Road who does not have rest...

Good Luck...brewers7
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Wednesday's Picks for tracking purposes:

Sides:

1) Atl, 2) Char, 3) NJ, 4) GS, 5) Sac, 6) Was, 7) Mia, 8) Ind, 9) Tor, 10) Sea, 11) NY, 12) Phi, 13) NO

Totals:

1) Mia un, 2) Char un, 3) Phi un, 4) NO un, 5) NJ un, 6) GS ov, 7) Tor ov, 8) Atl un, 9) NY ov, 10) Ind un, 11) Sac un, 12) Was un, 13) Sea ov

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Please note: Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...
================================================== ======================
Recent Results:
Yesterday: 2-2 (-$14)
Last 3 days: 4-2 (+$236)
Last 7 days: 10-3 (+$742)
================================================== ======================
Database sample links: http://www.tricountyleague.com/TeamSample.xls
http://www.tricountyleague.com/SeasonBySeasonSample.xls
================================================== ======================
Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Money management…Bet with your head, not over it...Stay humble…Act professional…
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[SACPAC]

Good Luck And Thanks For The Write-ups They Are Great Reads..happy Turkey Day...

[Moose21]

Good luck Brewers!!!

[Carlg]

Got Atlanta with ya.....BOL and nice work so far...continued success

[Moose21]

Thanks for the Winner on the Hawks!! Did you see the end to that one? Go Warriors!

[brewers7]

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Early looks at Friday's games (keep in mind that NBA injury reports often times are just not accurate and I have seen first-hand the last 2 seasons that they have been less and less accurate):

New York at Boston: Delonte West is questionable for Boston...Quick-revenge spot for the Knicks, who just lost to BOS at MSG on 11/18...240 points in that game, yet the Vegas total is pretty much the same total as on 11/18...Both teams combined to shoot about 41% for that game, but also combined for 113 FTs...This h2h series has gone Over 4 of the last 5 and 3 of the last 4 at BOS...The Celtics have covered 4 of 5 and 8 of 10 in this h2h series...Doc Rivers blasted his team and said his team played "like crap" at Charlotte, so we'll see if that has any effect for a coach who may be the first one to get fired this season...The Knicks are coming off a bad loss themselves where Coach Isiah Thomas brought Steve Francis off the bench for the first time this season, splitting up the Francis-Marbury combo and that experiment failed miserably for some reason, as the Knicks were down 30-13 after 1Q and never recovered...Thomas hinted he probably wouldn't try that again for now...

Chicago at Philadelphia: No line posted yet...Tyrus Thomas is still questionable for Chicago...Allen Iverson, Chris Webber and Stephen Hunter are still questionable for Philly...How long can CHI go before they can win a game on this 7-game Road trip?...Only 2 chances left as they have gone 0-for-5 to this point and are now 4-46 straight up when the circus comes to CHI since 1999-00...Philly had owned CHI during this same time-frame until the past 2 years, where now the Bulls have won and covered 4 of the last 6 h2h meetings...Philly has gone Under 5 straight in regulation and has been an Under team when Iverson doesn't play, historically...CHI GM John Paxson got headlines after their last game for saying the Bulls are playing with no passion or energy...I don't see Philly winning this game under ANY circumstances, I don't care if you put a uniform on Mo Cheeks and bring back Dr. J, Bobby Jones, Moses Malone and Andrew Toney...CHI takes this one...

Toronto at Atlanta: Morris Peterson is questionable for Toronto...The Raptors had won 5 straight in this 2h2 series before ATL won the last 2...TOR has covered 4 straight after a NC5, so they are still a chart-play...The Raptors actually played some defense and made a concerted effort on the boards and slowed the pace down significantly in their win vs. CLE at Toronto last time out, holding the Cavs under 40% shooting for the game...These 2 teams did go Over on 11/10 at TOR, but it was because of a 128-point 2nd half...ATL has just one Over at Home in 5 games this season, so with TOR being Under 4 of their last 5, one has to wonder if this won't be an Under...ATL has also been a great 1st half Under team this season...ATL still 2nd in the league in FG% allowed on defense, while TOR is 5th-worst...

Orlando at Miami: Grant Hill is probable for Friday for Orlando (but questionable for Saturday)...Jason Williams and James Posey are questionable for Miami...Coach Pat Riley said he is done being Mr. Nice Guy with this Heat team after yet another flat effort where Riley basically intimated that his team quit once they saw the fact that the Spurs were going to just keep taking it to them...The Magic split with Miami last year at both arenas and would love to kick this team while they are down...ORL has a NC2 after a C4 and has 4 Unders and a Push in in their last 5 games...MIA should have the motivational edge here and this line is just a Pick, but ORL clearly has the better team right now...

Dallas at San Antonio: Devean George is doubtful for Dallas...The Spurs' Home OT loss against the Bobcats obviously served as a wake-up call because the Spurs have won and covered 4 straight since that loss to move to 10-2...Dallas has won 7 straight after losing 4 straight to start the season, covering 6...A revenge spot here as the Spurs came to Dallas and won on 11/2 by 6...A dead-even h2h series here, as these teams have split their last 16 regular season meetings (7 Overs and 9 Unders)...Lean here to the under as 4 of the last 5 h2h have gone Under...Dallas 3 straight Unders after 4 Overs, while the Spurs are going the other way with 3 straight Overs after 5 straight Unders in regulation...Lean here to Dallas...

Cleveland at Indiana: Larry Hughes is expected to miss for Cleveland...The Home Team has won 6 of the last 7 in this h2h series and CLE has won 3 straight in this series...6 straight Unders here, too, h2h...Despite an early win at SA, the Cavs still don't seem to be a strong Road Team, as they are 2-3 on the Road...CLE hasn't covered 3 straight, while Indy has covered 3 straight overall...

Minnesota at New Orleans: David West is doubtful for New Orleans...The Hornets were a streaky ATS team last year and they have picked up right where they left off this year...They started with a C3, then NC4, then C4 and now a Not Cover (on the closing line) at PHOE last time out...NO already beat the T'Wolves at Minny by 3 and the Hornets have covered 8 of the last 9 in this h2h series...NO 5th and MIN 11th in the league in FG% allowed, but these 2 teams have gone Over 2 straight and 7 of the last 9 h2h...I don't know if the Hornets have gotten to the point where they "look-ahead" yet, but they play Dallas on Saturday...

Charlotte at Detroit: No line posted yet...Brevin Knight is still questionable for Charlotte...DET swept CHAR last season after the expansion Bobcats somehow beat the Pistons twice in their inaugural season...DET has Miami on Saturday, so this could be a look-ahead spot...The Pistons have won 4 straight and CHAR won their last time out against BOS...CHAR is 1st and Detroit 9th in FG% allowed...

Washington at Memphis: I am still researching long-term results, but a system-play of playing a team on the 1st-half line the game AFTER shooting less than 34% from the field their previous game has gone 3-0 ATS this season already (if I am not mistaken)...WASH shot 33.3% last time out...WASH has lost 5 of 6 and have been struggling with their shooting during this stretch...WAS has gone Under 5 of their last 6...MEMP Rookie point-guard Kyle Lowry factured his left wrist and will be Out indefinitely and it is a blow to the team because he was coming into his own and provided this team with a lot of energy for his roughly 16 minutes of play per game...I wonder about MEMP continuing to play small-ball and quicken the pace, because Lowry was a factor in doing this...This could be a 1Q Over waiting to happen here...

LA Lakers at Utah: Ronny Turiaf and Jordan Farmar are questionable for the Lakers...Andrei Kirilenko is questionable for Utah...Utah's Derek Fisher gets to play his former team for the first time in a Jazz uniform...The Jazz are off to a franchise-best 11-1 record with a stunning come-from-behind win last time out SAC, erasing an 18-point half-time lead and outscoring SAC 39-17 in the 4Q and 73-46 in the 2H (thanks mainly in part to Mike Bibby leaving the game with an injury)...The Jazz have covered 9 of the last 10 in this h2h series, with 7 Overs in the last 11...The Lakers are 8-3 and are also coming off a big win against the Clippers...Utah Over 6 of the last 7, while the Lakers finally got an Over the last time out after 6 straight Unders...To me, when in doubt, take the points, as the Jazz cannot keep this up forever...The Jazz have won 4 of the last 5 vs. LAL at Home by at least 5 every time, though...

Golden State at Denver: Earl Boykins is questionable for Denver...The Nuggets are an Over machine and just played a 227 against GS at GS 2 days ago, so why should this game be any different?...DEN 8-1-1 to the Over on the season, with the only Under coming opening night, and Melo got tossed early in the 3Q of that game, or else that may have been another Over...Melo has been unstoppable this season, leading the league in scoring...And this 227 total two days ago was LOWER than 3 of the last 4 totals these teams played to h2h in their last 4 games...These 2 teams have gone Over 7 of the last 8 games h2h as it is, and 3 of their totals in the last 4 games before this 227 were 236, 230 & 228, and this is before BOTH teams have changed their offensive philosophy for the 2006-07 season...Why should anyone be scared of a 221 total here?...Neither team shot lights out 2 days ago and there were 177 shots taken, which should easily be equalled again...GS had covered 8 straight before this loss to DEN, so a chart-play here to fade GS is in play, but this conflicts with the Home-and-Home revenge spot situational trend, so I'll have to pass on the Side, but there is no other play on the Total except Over...

Sacramento at Seattle: No line posted yet...Mike Bibby is questionable and Ron Artest is probable for Sacramento...Danny Fortson is OUT for Seattle...SAC has lost 3 straight and have Not Covered 4 straight...After a C6 for SEA, they had a NC3 and now have covered 2 straight...The Home Team has won 9 of 11 in this h2h series...The total is 15-6-1 to the Over in this h2h series the last 22...The injury to Bibby is obviously the key here and makes this game a stay-away game...

New Jersey at Phoenix: No line posted yet...Leandro Barbosa is questionable, while Amare Stoudamire is probable for Phoenix...Since Coach Mike D'Antoni has taken over the reigns at PHOE, the NO/PHOE h2h series has been a Stone Under series, as witnessed yet again 2 days ago, with the game staying 35 points Under the Vegas total...The NJ/PHOE h2h series has been the same way, with 4 Unders in 5 meetings since D'Antoni took over...These 5 totals have been 182, 173, 218, 192 & 161...The 218 was at PHOE...The Home Team has won 12 of the last 13 in this h2h series, covering 11...NJ has lost straight overall, not covering any of those 3 games...

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[brewers7]

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I am going to make an early play here because I don't see this total moving downward during the day:

Friday, November 24

Golden State/Denver over 220.5 -- $101 to win $100

I am not a linesmaker or bookie, but I play one on TV...actually, no I don't but I simply do not believe this total is going to end up any lower than this by game time...I feel it may end up around 223...Could be wrong...Denver has yet to have a Home game go Under this year...The Nuggets are an Over machine and just played a 227 against GS at GS 2 days ago, so why should this game be any different?...DEN 8-1-1 to the Over on the season, with the only Under coming opening night, and Melo got tossed early in the 3Q of that game, or else that may have been another Over...Melo has been unstoppable this season, leading the league in scoring...And this 227 total two days ago was LOWER than 3 of the last 4 totals these teams played to h2h prior to Wednesday...These 2 teams have gone Over 7 of the last 8 games h2h as it is, and 3 of their totals in the last 4 games before this 227 were 236, 230 & 228, and this is before BOTH teams have changed their offensive philosophy for the 2006-07 season...Why should anyone be scared of a 221 total here?...Neither team shot lights out 2 days ago and there were 177 shots taken, which should easily be equalled again...This game may stay Under, but I defy anyone to present me with any handicapping evidence prior to the start of the game that this will stay Under...

Good Luck...brewers7
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[LVJimmy]

GL Brew!

[soxx9]

Good luck...always enjoy the write ups!

[brewers7]

================================================== ======================
Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... ================================================== ======================
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
================================================== ======================
Preseason posted plays: 9-3-1
================================================== ======================
Season To Date: 31-17, +$1593

Sides: 14-6, +$879, Totals: 10-8, +$405, 1H bets: 1-1, -$4, 2H bets: 3-1, +$193, ML: 1-1, +$29, Quarters: 2-0, +$200

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Additional play:

Looking at other games, but playing this one as it was obvious I was going to be playing this game after my "preview" last night...

Friday, November 24

Chicago Bulls -1.5 -- $155 to win $150

How long can CHI go before they can win a game on this 7-game Road trip?...Only 2 chances left as they have gone 0-for-5 to this point and are now 4-46 straight up when the circus comes to CHI since 1999-00...Philly had owned CHI during this same time-frame until the past 2 years, where now the Bulls have won and covered 4 of the last 6 h2h meetings...CHI GM John Paxson got headlines after their last game for saying the Bulls are playing with no passion or energy...I simply do not see this team just bagging this Road trip and "curing" things once they get back to Chicago...They need a win NOW...Chicago made the playoffs the last 2 years and are expected to this season, and in each of the last 2 seasons, they won Game 6 of this Road trip, including 2004-05, where they lost the first 5 games of that trip, too, and were 0-9 on the season up until that point...I have said it before and I'll say it again: The Sixers have pretty much been the worst Home ATS team in the league since Larry Brown left town, but they do just fine on the Road with points...They are a DOG this time at Home, so all they need to do is win, but hey, I am a Sixers fan and I do not see this happening tonight...In fact, I'd be stunned if the Bulls lose this game...

Good Luck...brewers7
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Friday's Picks for tracking purposes:

Sides:

1) Chi, 2) Atl, 3) Sea, 4) LAL, 5) Char, 6) Dal, 7) Mia, 8) NY, 9) Den, 10) Was, 11) Phoe, 12) Ind, 13) NO

Totals:

1) Den ov, 2) NY ov, 3) Atl un, 4) Dal ov, 5) Char un, 6) Chi ov, 7) Was ov, 8) Sea un, 9) NO un, 10) Ind un, 11) Mia un, 12) Phoe un, 13) LAL ov

================================================== ======================
Please note: Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...
================================================== ======================
Recent Results:
Yesterday: 1-2 (-$109)
Last 3 days: 4-4 (+$27)
Last 7 days: 8-6 (+$513)
================================================== ======================
Database sample links: http://www.tricountyleague.com/TeamSample.xls
http://www.tricountyleague.com/SeasonBySeasonSample.xls
================================================== ======================
Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Money management…Bet with your head, not over it...Stay humble…Act professional…
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