NBA Week 4 thread (28-15, +$1566 on the year)...

[BigMike]

Good job buddy, love the writeups/posts

[LVJimmy]

Thanx...

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I want to pull the trigger so bad on Memphis and Toronto as I feel MEMP will win this game and feel Toronto has an outside shot at winning this and certainly staying under the number...From a handicapping point of view, Toronto may be the strongest play on the board, but I have watched them play and they cannot hit the ocean at times...Depending on how the Dallas game is looking early, I may bet Toronto, we'll see...

Also considering the Dal/Char Over in the 1Q...Brevin Knight playing tonight changes a lot...This game has a shot at going Over now and CHAR has a good chance to win now...I hope Dallas shows up because that bet is already in...

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Monday's Picks for tracking purposes:

Sides:

1) Dal, 2) Port, 3) Phoe, 4) Tor, 5) Memp, 6) Hou, 7) NJ

Totals:

1) Dal un, 2) Tor ov, 3) Memp ov, 4) Hou ov, 5) Port un, 6) NJ un, 7) Phoe un

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nice winner with Dallas...trust your instincts...nice calls on Mem and Tor

[brewers7]

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Early looks at Tuesday's games:

Detroit at Philadelphia: No line posted due to Iverson and 2 others being questionable, although AI's status the only one that matters here...Detroit has taken over this h2h series as they have won 5 straight and 7 of 8 against Philly, covering 4 and pushing 2 (and this includes the 04-05 playoffs)...The Sixers have come back down to earth after a 3-0 start and have gone 1-5 since...Philly is 2-1 SU & ATS at Home so far, have been one of the worst if not the worst Home Cover team in the league since Larry Brown left town for Detroit, and with DET winning both trips to PHI last season by 7 and 11 points, I would say if DET is favored by 4 or less here, then the Pistons are the play...Philly is 11th in FG% allowed this season and Detroit 17th (shockingly enough)...DET Under in 4 of their 5 Road games while Philly is 2-1 to the Over at Home (but 1 was against Denver) and the Sixers have had 3 straight Unders in regulation time coming into this game...

Milwaukee at Indiana: Al Harrington is questionable, but I don't see why that should keep this line off the board, as Harrington missed the last game and the Pacers won anyway in come-from-behind fashion...I generally like to fade the team that won the front-end of a Home-and-Home series, so since Indy won 102-100 on Saturday at MILW, I will naturally be inclined to take the Bucks here at Indy no matter what the line is...Indy Over 3 straight games and MILW has been an Over team all year so a natural lean to the Over unless the total is ...

Memphis at Cleveland: Larry Hughes questionable for Cleveland here...This is the first of our 4-games-in-5-days trend and if you don't know it by now, don't worry, I will keep mentioning it all season long until you learn that in ANY 4-games-in-5-days NBA game, you always take the Away Team, no matter which team is playing the 4 games in 5 days...You wll win money in the long run and don't even have to handicap the game...But hey, call me old-fashioned, but I will go ahead and handicap the game anyway, because that is what I do and I never bet any trend blindly, although this trend is about as close as you can get to betting one blindly...After all, the 4-of-5 trend is 6-2 ATS this season with the Away team being the 4 of 5 team in every instance (we have our FIRST 4-of-5 Home Team instance coming up today in a laetr game)...However, in this game, we have a clash of strong handicapping trends, as what I call the NBA Handicapping 101 trend is also in play, and it states that you always take the Good bounce-back team off a loss against the Bad let-down team off an upset win...Which trend holds up here?...Well, the NBA Handicapping 101 trend is a bit stronger not giving so many points, but CLE is rested, while MEMP is not...Plus, MEMP wasn't a huge Dog and it wasn't a major upset, so I would say that taking MEMP is the play here with the points, as CLE still has Hughes Out and until last season, CLE had trouble beating MEMP at Home...CLE is 2-1 ATS this season when they have rest and their opponent does not while MEMP is 1-2 ATS in the reverse situational spot...MEMP has gone Under in all 3 of their back-to-back games this season, while CLE has gone Under in 2 of 3 in their situational spot for tonight...

Miami at New Orleans: David West still OUT for the Hornets...Jason Williams did return last week for Miami, while Peyton and Posey are probable for Tuesday...NO covered against Miami both games alst season and beat them soundly at NO and Shaq DID play that game...There seem to be some hints in Miami papers about Riley experimenting with some small-ball lineups, but I'll believe it when I see it...Miami cannot help but maybe have an eye on their next game at SA, but is NO looking ahead to PHOE tomorrow?...Doubt it, but the streaky Hornets are at again this year, with 4 wins, 3 losses and 3 wins (3 Covers, 4 NCs and 3 Covers)...The Heat won in OT last time out at ATL...No opinion on the total but the last 3 in this h2h series went Over...

Washington at Dallas: Jarvis Hayes questionable for the Wiz, while Devean George remains doubtful and Josh Howard is still Out...Here is the first 4-games-in-5-days contest for a Home Team this season...This trend is generally STRONGER taking the Away Team in this situational spot...The 4 of 5 trend is at its strongest (taking the Away Team, of course) when both teams are playing 4 games in 5 days...But this line has come down a point already...And WAS is off a big win at Home vs. CLE...Dallas has won 5 straight and 8 of 9 and has covered 4 of the last 5 vs. WAS...The Mavs come into this game winning 6 straight and are 2-0 & 1-1 ATS in the back-end of bk-2-bks, a spot they weren't that great in last year...However, WAS is 2-1 SU & 2-0-1 ATS when they have rest and their opponent does not this season...I don't see any trends I can sink my teeth into for this total...

Chicago at Denver: Andre Miller is probable for Denver after getting hurt in the final minute of the Toronto game on Saturday...The Bulls are on their extended November Road Trip to start the season again due to the circus being in town at CHI...Since the 1999-2000 season, the Bulls are 4-45 SU and 18-30-1 ATS during these November Road trips...Yes, 4-45 SU...It gets better...They lost the first 37 games of this streak...It wasn't until their first post-Jordan era playoff appearance in 2004-05 did they even get a win during this NOV Road trip and that was in Game 6 of that 7-game Road trip...They lost the 7th game and then the first 3 games of this trip in 2005-06 to go to 1-41 SU, before winning the final 3 games of this trip last season as they won by 3 at the Lakers (4-5 record), by 7 at San Antonio (10-2 record) and by 5 at Houston (3-10 record)...The Bulls were 3-5 going into the Lakers game...This made the Bulls 4-41 SU during this November "circus" Road trip coming into 2006-07, and for this year's trip, they have lost all 3 in the Texas Triangle and then at the Lakers to go to 4-45 SU and head to Denver tonight, Philly on FRI and NY on SAT...

Can the Bulls win the last 3 games of the trip again this season?...Well, the Bulls shot 33.8% from the floor their last outing, which will make me take a Pavlovian look at the Bulls as if a bell was ringing somewhere...I also find it hard to believe this CHI team will lose 5 straight...DEN is 0-3 ATS at Home...The Bulls did win here last season after DEN had won and covered 5 straight in this h2h series...As far as the total goes, well, this is an NBA game which Denver is playing, so I have an automatic knee-jerk reaction into taking the Over here and this inclination is backed up with DEN being 3-0 to the Over at Home...

LA Clippers at LA Lakers: The Clips starting out 6-2 should be no surprise to any NBA follower, but the lakers starting out 7-3 is probably a bit of surprise, especially with Kobe missing the first 2 games and not being 100% all season to this point...This has ben a nip-and-tuck h2h series, with neither team establishing dominance over the other in recent years...They share the same Home floor...I may give a slight edge to the Lakers cheerleaders here, but that is strictly on reputation as even that is a toss-up now...The Clips are unbeaten (6-0) at Staples this season, but the Lakers are 6-1 at Staples...The Clips have beaten better teams, though...Tough call on the side but a lean to the Clips...The Lakers have gone Under 6 straight after going Over their first 4 games...The Clips only Over at Staples in regulation this season was against Phoenix...So lean to the Under...

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[brewers7]

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Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... ================================================== ======================
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
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Preseason posted plays: 9-3-1
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Season To Date: 29-15, +$1716

Sides: 13-4, +$993, Totals: 9-8, +$305, 1H bets: 1-1, -$4, 2H bets: 3-1, +$193, ML: 1-1, +$29, Quarters: 2-0, +$200

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May have another play soon...

Tuesday, November 21

Detroit Pistons -3 -- $100 to win $100

Allen Iverson is OUT tonight...Being a Sixers fan, I am going to play this small...Why?...Because in the past, the 76ers have risen up without AI and done well...But that was several years ago...In more recent years, Philly has not fared as well without Mr. Iverson...The funny part is, I already liked Detroit at -1 with Iverson playing...Chris Webber and Stephen Hunter being questionable doesn't matter that much, but it hurts their depth because they are losing about 38 minutes worth of play from the combined minutes of the two...I watched most of the Sixers/Clippers game on Saturday, and the announcers were super-proud of the Sixers' effort because they were under-manned...So if Webber and Hunter are still Out, and now with AI Out and there is another 40+ minutes that someone needs to fill in, I would be hard-pressed to see an under-manned Philly squad rise up here, BUT, with that said, this is only a minimum play for me because I ahve seen the Sixers rise up without AI before...

Good Luck...brewers7
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Tuesday's Picks for tracking purposes:

pending...

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Please note: Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...
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Recent Results:
Yesterday: 1-0 (+$150)
Last 3 days: 3-2 (+$336)
Last 7 days: 8-5 (+$487)
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Database sample links: http://www.tricountyleague.com/TeamSample.xls
http://www.tricountyleague.com/SeasonBySeasonSample.xls
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Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Money management…Bet with your head, not over it...Stay humble…Act professional…
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[ChangingMyLuck3]

love your pick, i just hate the Pistons because they've screwed me so much already this year when they should be beating up on teams, their losing.

[bwade210]

Good luck my friend! My local is giving me Detroit -1' (-110).

[brewers7]

thanks for the winner

Don't know about that, but GL to us...

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Tuesday, November 21

Detroit/Philadelphia under 189 -- $105 to win $100

How do you replace 30 points with Iverson Out?...You don't...On 2/3/06, Iverson didn't play against DET at Home and the Pistons won 87-80...This may even be a better play than the side, but I'll make it an equal play...DET already has 4 Unders in 5 Road games, and for me, for Philly to have any chance, they will need to slow the pace down because they won't be able to score with the Pistons...And the Sixers in the past do not look to run when AI is not in the lineup...

Good Luck...brewers7
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[Carlg]

BOL Brewer...I'm on Det and the under 2..gl2us

[BigWeiner]

I like the Pistons, and the under looks solid to me as well. Good luck.

[drugstuntman]

thanks for the insight brewer, continued success

[molta02]

[QUOTE=brewers7]Don't know about that, but GL to us...

QUOTE]

i was referring to last nite's winner.

thanks for the plays and GL tonite.

[brewers7]

Ok, thanx...

Still wondering about pulling the trigger on WASH and I am looking at the Bulls, too...
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Tuesday's Picks for tracking purposes:

Sides:

1) Was, 2) Det, 3) Chi, 4) Memp, 5) LAC, 6) NO, 7) Milw

Totals:

1) Det un, 2) Chi ov, 3) LAC un, 4) Was ov, 5) Memp un, 6) Milw un, 7) NO ov

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[videoman]

thanks brewer for your continued info and great picks!!!

[SACPAC]

Good Luck And Thanks For The Great Reads...

[brewers7]

Thanx guys...

Ok, last night I did not pull the trigger on 2 games and they both won, so tonight, I will pull the trigger on 2 other games and we'll see if I regret this or not...I will keep it at a minimum amount as I now have 4 plays in action tonight...

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Additional plays:

Tuesday, November 21

Washington Wizards +5 -- $109 to win $100

Opened at 6, fell to 4.5, now at 5, I'll take it and hope that WAS shows up here...This is one of two 4-games-in-5-days Trend games in play for tonight, and since MEMP is struggling mightily early (which I was worried about slightly after a big win last night -- but they can still Cover), I will take my shot with the Wizards since Dallas is playing their 4th game in 5 nights at Home, and fading the Home Team in this spot always seems stronger than taking the 4-of-5 Away Team in this spot over the years...Also, The Mavs do play SA next, so with a revenge-game on the horizon, you gotta wonder about a bit of a look-ahead...Dallas has to travel from Charlotte last night while WASH was already in Dallas last night...Mavs have won 6 straight after their 0-4 start...

Chicago Bulls +3 -- $105 to win $100

I cannot get away from this one after the Bulls shot about 34% last time out and have now lost 4 in a row during this Road trip...DEN 1-2 SU at Home and 0-3 ATS...The Bulls rely too much on their outside shots, but they should be able to get more than that here with this Denver squad...The Bulls won here last year and I see this is a good spot for Chicago to break out of their slump and grab a "W" at Denver, which the T'Wolves and Knicks already did this season...

Good Luck...brewers7
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