NBA Week 4 thread (28-15, +$1566 on the year)...

[TCB in a Flash]

brewers7
great previews and analysis!
Hope you continue to have succes with he picks!

[tash]

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I am going to make an early play here because I don't see this total moving downward during the day:

Friday, November 24

Golden State/Denver over 220.5 -- $101 to win $100

I am not a linesmaker or bookie, but I play one on TV...actually, no I don't but I simply do not believe this total is going to end up any lower than this by game time...I feel it may end up around 223...Could be wrong...Denver has yet to have a Home game go Under this year...The Nuggets are an Over machine and just played a 227 against GS at GS 2 days ago, so why should this game be any different?...DEN 8-1-1 to the Over on the season, with the only Under coming opening night, and Melo got tossed early in the 3Q of that game, or else that may have been another Over...Melo has been unstoppable this season, leading the league in scoring...And this 227 total two days ago was LOWER than 3 of the last 4 totals these teams played to h2h prior to Wednesday...These 2 teams have gone Over 7 of the last 8 games h2h as it is, and 3 of their totals in the last 4 games before this 227 were 236, 230 & 228, and this is before BOTH teams have changed their offensive philosophy for the 2006-07 season...Why should anyone be scared of a 221 total here?...Neither team shot lights out 2 days ago and there were 177 shots taken, which should easily be equalled again...This game may stay Under, but I defy anyone to present me with any handicapping evidence prior to the start of the game that this will stay Under...

Good Luck...brewers7
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geez. barely went over......nice hit!

[brewers7]

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Early looks at Saturday's games:

Detroit at Washington: We have our first game of the season where both teams play their 4th game in 5 nights (there are 2 tonight)...Generally speaking, this is one of the strongest situational spots where you would blindly take the Away Team every time...Unfortunately for me, we have a situation where DET has won 5 straight (covering 4) and WAS has lost 3 straight and 6 of 7 AND the Wizards have a relatively quick revenge spot here after losing at DET by 9 on 11/17...WAS cannot hit the ocean right now...Gilbert Arenas had 3 points last night on 1-for-12 shooting and hit just 1-for-5 from the FT line to boot...If you follow the 4-of-5 trend blindly, DET is the only play here, but I am not confident as WAS is 2-0 ATS in the back-end of bk-2-bk games, and when they hosted CLE last Saturday when both teams were bk-2-bk, WAS won by 12, their only win in their last 7 games...As far as the total goes, DET has been an Over team at Home and an Under team on the Road since Coach Flip Saunders took over last season...DET is 5-2 to the Over at Home this year and 5-1 to the Under on the Road this season...WAS has gone Under in 7 of their 8 losses, including 6 straight, and Over in 4 of their 5 wins, including their last win against CLE at Home when both teams were on back-enders (like tonight)...And that game against CLE was ALSO a quick revenge game from an earlier loss...So I may have to buck the trend here, because the other situational trends point to a WAS win...

Atlanta at Orlando: Josh Childress is questionable for Atlanta and Grant Hill is expected to miss for Orlando...The Home Team has won 8 straight in this h2h series and Orlando has a quick revenge spot here from a loss to ATL on 11/5...ATL lost in OT at Home (to SEA) in their only back-end of a bk-2-bk this season, while ORL is 2-0 SU and 1-1 ATS in this spot...They played a 177 on 11/5, but both teams have yet to play an Under when going on the back-end of bk-2-bks...

Miami at Charlotte: Jason Williams and James Posey are questionable for Miami...The Heat are a DOG for the first time against the Bobcats...Miami is 7-1 vs. this franchise, but just 3-5 ATS...CHAR's only win over Miami was at Home on 3/26/05...The Heat are playing their 4th game in 5 days and were 1-2 ATS in this spot last season, but all 3 instances were at Home...This trend is of course stronger for the Away Teams...CHAR is 2-0 SU & ATS this season (beating CLE at Home and SA at SA) and the Bobcats were a strong Cover team in this situational spot last season (14-6-1 ATS)...Miami has lost 3 straight and 6 of 7...CHAR has gone Under both times in this spot this season...MIA has gone Over 3 straight games overall...

Philadelphia at Cleveland: Chris Webber and Stephen Hunter are questionable for Philly...Larry Hughes expected to miss...The double 4-of-5 trend will be put to the test again here...Both teams are playing their 4th game in 5 days...But Philly is off a big win and CLE is off a painful loss last night, so we have a conflicting trend (The NBA Handicapping 101 trend) that states that you take the good bounce-back team off a loss vs. the bad let-down team off a win...Another tough call for me because I want to blindly take the Away Team here as the 4-of-5 trend dictates, but the other situational factors come into play here...Allen Iverson has always played well at CLE, putting up one monster game after another...Philly has won 10 of their last 13 trips into Cleveland SU...They did get slaughtered by 33 their last trip in on 4/4/06...CLE is a totally different team at Home and will win this game, the only question is whether they cover the spread here...Philly is 3-0 ATS in the back-end of bk-2-bks while CLE is 0-3 ATS in this same spot and both teams have gone 2-1 to the Under in regulation time in this spot...These teams have had 5 straight Overs in this h2h series...

Chicago at New York: The Bulls are just terrible right now...Terrible...The addition of Ben Wallace was supposed to give this team a strong defensive presence, but there has been no evidence of this...Wallace played less than 20 minutes against Philly and the Sixers torched them with 54% shooting and 123 points...The Bulls are now 4-47 since 1999-00 while the Circus is in Chicago, and the Bulls may as well join that circus themselves because maybe they'd be better lion-tamers than basketball players...This is the final game of their 7-game Circus Road Trip and they are 0-6 to this point...The Bulls are 0-2 SU & ATS in the back-end of bk-2-bks and NY is 0-3 SU & 1-2 ATS in this same spot...CHI has won 6 of the last 7 h2h in this series...The Knicks are suddenly an Under team now, going Under 6 of the last 8 (with one of the Overs going over the total by 1/2 a point)...

LA Clippers at Minnesota: The Clips are suddenly stumbling slightly, losing 3 of 4 and barely beating Philly at Home in OT during that stretch...Clips now on a NC4 after a C4...LAC 1-2 ATS when they have rest and their opponent does not this season and Minny is 1-2 ATS on the back-end of bk-2-bk games this season...Clips could be looking ahead slightly to an ESPN game Sunday night vs. the Nuggets, but it's hard to say, because they could use a "W" now...The Clips had lost 7 straight and 12 of 13 at Minny before winning there he last meeting of this h2h series on 3/13/06...3 straight and 5 of 6 in this h2h series have gone Under...

New Orleans at Dallas: David West is doubtful for New Orleans...Devean George questionable for Dallas...The Hornets continue to be a streaky ATS team...They were last year and they have picked up right where they left off this year...They started with a C3, then NC4, then C4 and now a NC2 as they head to Dallas tonight...Josh Howard is back, so look out now...The mavs started the season with a Finals hangover at 0-4, but have since won 8 straight, including a nice win at SA last night...Obviousl let-down spot here...New Orleans is playing their 4th game in 5 days, are coming off a loss last night, playing a Dallas squad in a let-down spot, so on the surface, this would be the best spot for the 4-of-5 Away Team to cover tonight...Right?...Well, the problem is Dallas has beaten this Hornets' team 17 straight times SU, but, are just 5-11-1 ATS in these 17 wins...Dallas did bury this team by 24 last April, but NO had a rough April last year...Another factor in favor of NO is that they shot 33.8% from the field on Friday so they are deemed to be in "extreme" bounce-back mode by me...Both teams are 2-1 to the Under in back-enders this season and have gone Under 3 straight and 6 of 7 h2h...

Memphis at Houston: Eddie Jones is questionable for Memphis...The Grizz have actually put together 5 straight pretty good games in a row...MEM won both games in HOU last year...HOU is 4-1 SU at Home this year, but just 1-4 ATS, not covering 4 straight...These teams Under 7 of last 9 h2h...HOU 0-2 ATS when they have rest and their opponents do not this season, while MEMP are 2-2 ATS in the back-end of bk-2-bk games...The Griz have covered 4 straight overall...

Boston at Milwaukee: Maurice Williams is questionable for Milwaukee...The Bucks have won 3 straight and 7 of 10 h2h and have covered 9 of the last 10 vs. Boston...MILW is 0-2 ATS this season when they have rest and their opponents do not...BOS is 2-0-1 ATS in the back-end of bk-2-bks...All 3 of the h2h meetings last season went Under...

Portland at Sacramento: Ron Artest is questionable for Sacramento...The Kings rose up without Artest last night and pretty much led from start to finish at Seattle with the 109-100 victory...SAC is 0-2 SU & ATS this season in the back-end of bk-2-bks...PORT is 2-1 SU & ATS when they have rest and their opponent does not with SA being the team they lost to and din't cover against, but all 3 instances were at Home...These teams have gone Over 7 straight and 13 of 14 in this h2h series...PORT Over 6 of 7 overall and SAC Over 6 straight themselves...

Utah at Golden State: Baron Davis is questionable for Golden State...Utah sporting the best record in the league at 12-1...And the Jazz are suddenly an Over Team, even with AK47 returning...Utah has gone Over 7 of their last 8 games...GS Over 3 straight, including that insane 269 total at Denver Friday night, their highest output in a loss since 1991...These teams actually had an easy Under on 11/4 at Utah, seeing the Jazz win that game by 24...The Jazz have won all 3 games this season where they and their opponent both were on the back-end of a bk-2-bk, including that win over GS...So we do have a revenge spot here, although there is also a strong Chart-play against GS because they are on a NC2 after having a C8...

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[Spencer3000]

Thanks for the plays, brewers. I've been following them for the last two weeks, and its the first time I've been consistently profitable in the NBA. Anything for today?

[batez302]

Thanks for all of the help brewers, you are one of the most solid members here at BC!

[brewers7]

Thanx guys...Hopefully I can step it up a notch starting today...

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Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... ================================================== ======================
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
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Preseason posted plays: 9-3-1
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Season To Date: 33-20, +$1538

Sides: 14-8, +$719, Totals: 11-9, +$401, 1H bets: 1-1, -$4, 2H bets: 3-1, +$193, ML: 1-1, +$29, Quarters: 2-0, +$200

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A lot of conflicting trends tonight...Want to bet a few more, but may wait for 2H lines tonight...

Saturday, November 25

New Orleans/Dallas under 187 -- $156 to win $150

The Mavs have gone Under 4 straight and the Hornets have gone Under 2 straight and both teams are 2-1 to the Under in the back-end of bk-2-bk games this season...These teams had 3 unders h2h last season, including a game on 4/8/06 (a Saturday) at Dallas where the Mavs had just beaten the Spurs at SA the night before and the Hornets were playing their 4th game in 5 days (all like tonight) and Dallas won that game (not letting down, with the 101-77 vistory)...The big key here is that Peja Stojakovic is OUT tonight, and with David West already OUT, where are the points going to come from for the Hornets?...Peja only scored 8 points last night and the Hornets had a 165 total...Ok, it was against Minny, but NO wion't be able to score with Dallas tonight, so to have a chance, they need to slow the pace down...NO just had a 175 at PHOE 2 games ago, so why can't they slow this one down enough to stay Under this 187 total?...NO did stay Under in three of their four 4-of-5 spots last year, including their game at Dallas as already mentioned...

Good Luck...brewers7
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Saturday's Picks for tracking purposes:

Sides:

1) Port, 2) NO, 3) Was, 4) Phi, 5) Chi, 6) Atl, 7) Memp, 8) Bos, 9) Utah, 10) Mia, 11) LAC

Totals:

1) NO un, 2) Mia un, 3) Atl un, 4) Phi ov, 5) Port ov, 6) Chi ov, 7) LAC un, 8) Utah un, 9) Memp ov, 10) Bos un, 11) Was un

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Please note: Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...
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Recent Results:
Yesterday: 1-1 (-$55)
Last 3 days: 4-5 (-$178)
Last 7 days: 8-7 (+$308)
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Database sample links: http://www.tricountyleague.com/TeamSample.xls
http://www.tricountyleague.com/SeasonBySeasonSample.xls
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Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Money management…Bet with your head, not over it...Stay humble…Act professional…
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[tash]

like the call....good luck to you!

[TCB in a Flash]

Thx for the info and the pick - good luck tonight!

[3rdmckid]

bump for a guy who's hot! Congrats, continued sucess!

[bwade210]

Thanks for the pick bud!

[Stealth]

Been tailing you for several weeks. Great Job, keep it up.
You are the first person I look to for an NBA play!!!!

[HammerHead33]

Nice hit man...I HATE UNDERS...but when i saw you playing it i couldn't help but go along...chalk one more W up for ya...keep em coming

[brewers7]

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Early looks at Sunday's games:

Indiana at Toronto: Marquis Daniels questionable for Indiana and Mo Peterson expected to miss for Toronto...The Raptors are a completely different team at Home thus far this season...3-2 at Home and 0-7 on the Road...TOR 6-6 SU and 8-4 ATS during Sunday Home games last season and most of those were 1:00 starts...Indy has Covered 4 straight overall and TOR just missed covering 5 straight last time out with a 4-point loss at ATL...Toronto Under 5 of their last 6 overall and Indy a push and 2 unders in their last 3 games...Nothing significant jumping out here, maybe the Under is a play...

LA Clippers at Denver: Chris kaman doubtful for the Clips...Reggie Evans probable for Denver...Revenge spot here for the Nuggets, who have been an Over machine, with 9 Overs and a Push in their last 10 games since (you got it) they had their only Under of the season on opening night at Staples vs. the Clippers...But remember, Melo got ejected early in the 3Q in that game, so if that didn't happen, that game may have also gone Over...The Clips have Not Covered 5 straight after a C4...The Clips are 0-2 ATS on the back-end of bk-2-bks this season...DEN 1-1 ATS when they have rest and their opponents do not...The Clips have only gone Over 210 twice this season, and both times were against PHOE...But let's face it, the Nuggets have a similar offensive philosophy comparable to the Suns...My initial rection believe it or not is to go Under here, as these teams hve gone Under 6 straight and 8 of 9 h2h...The Clips have also gone Under in both of their back-enders this season...But how can I possibly bet the Nuggets Under?...I cannot...DEN is 5-0 to the Over at Home this season...The Clips just had a 200 on Saturday at Minny, with just 143 shots taken in the game...Despite staying Under in their first meeting at LAC, there were 170 shots put up in that game, but it was brick-city...Something tells me that the Clips will want to slow the pace of the game down, but that may be difficult against the Nuggets and the Clips have some guys who can run...The Clips have won 8 of the last 9 in this h2h series, but the revenge spot favors the Nuggets...

San Antonio at Seattle: Manu Ginobili is questionable for the Spurs and Danny Fortson is questionable for the Sonics...The Home team has won 9 of the last 10 in this h2h series and the Home Team had Covered 9 straight in this h2h series until their last meeting on 4/11/06, where visiting SEA covered by 1/2 a point at SA...SA is 2-0 SU & ATS after a loss this season, but they haven't covered their last 4 trips to SEA...The Spurs play at GS on Monday...These teams have gone Over 6 of the last 8 h2h...

Phoenix at Portland: Leandro Barbosa is questionable for Phoenix...After a 1-5 start, PHOE has gone 5-1 and will attempt to go over .500 for the first time this season...PHOE 1-0 ATS when they have rest and their opponent does not so far this season and they were 13-7 ATS in this situational spot last year and started last season 8-1 ATS in this spot...PORT 2-1 SU & ATS on the back-end of bk-2-bks, but both wins and covers were at Home...PHOE is 8-2 SU and 6-3-1 ATS in this h2h series, with * Overs in the last 10 games h2h...The Suns lack of depth makes it troublesome for them to close out games, while PORT has been a completely different team at Home, going 4-2 SU & ATS...PHOE just 1-4 SU & 2-3 ATS this season on the Road, but I would expect the Suns to turn that around...

New Jersey at LA Lakers: Jordan Farmar is questionable for the Lakers...The Lakers have established home-court advantage thus far this season...LAL is 7-1 SU & 4-3-1 ATS...NJ is playing the final leg of this 4-game Road trip, where they have lost all 3 of the previous games, not covering 2 and pushing the last one...NJ Coach Lawrence Frank benched his starters in the 4Q against PHOE and the scrubs came in and got them back into the game...The Nets have covered 3 of their last 4 trips into Staples, winning 3 times...My first inclination is to take the points here, but I am not sold on the Nets...The Lakers have a way of sleepwalking at time at Home and have had difficulty putting away teams at Staples in recent years...This is a chart-play to the Over for the Lakers as they had 6 straight Unders before going Over in their last 2...

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[Goose]

great job and thanks!!

[3rdmckid]

brew, if possible can you tell me the top 4 teams ats last year? (if you get a chance.......)

Thanks