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**LVJimmy** · 11-20-2006, 01:31 AM

nice job man...keep it up

**LVJimmy** · 11-20-2006, 01:33 AM

btw, you seem solid in hoops...how long have you been capping NBA cuz it seems to be the toughest to cap

**brewers7** · 11-20-2006, 01:41 AM

Originally posted by LVJimmy

btw, you seem solid in hoops...how long have you been capping NBA cuz it seems to be the toughest to cap

NBA is the easiest sport to cap, bar none (for me)...

Been doing it for 20+ years and tracking trends for 15 years coming into this season...

As you can see by my NBA database samples, I take it seriously and I also have Paper Charts that I update daily...

GL to ya, sir...

**LVJimmy** · 11-20-2006, 01:48 AM

Originally posted by brewers7

NBA is the easiest sport to cap, bar none (for me)...

Been doing it for 20+ years and tracking trends for 15 years coming into this season...

As you can see by my NBA database samples, I take it seriously and I also have Paper Charts that I update daily...

GL to ya, sir...

thanks man...I respect anyone who can cap the NBA with success because the players don't always give 100% IMO...GL this week

**BillMill71** · 11-20-2006, 08:44 AM

Good Luck Brewers, look forward to your picks

**Spencer3000** · 11-20-2006, 09:33 AM

thanks for the pics. Good luck, I'll be following all of them.

**molta02** · 11-20-2006, 10:36 AM

glad I locked in -3 last nite. you were right about the line move, already up to 5. thanks for the plays and GL.

**Moose21** · 11-20-2006, 10:39 AM

Brewers, would you still play the Mavs at 5 1/2? That's the line at Sportsbook. Thanks

**bwade210** · 11-20-2006, 12:15 PM

Good luck my friend!

**brewers7** · 11-20-2006, 04:11 PM

Originally posted by Moose21

Brewers, would you still play the Mavs at 5 1/2? That's the line at Sportsbook. Thanks

Probably would not play this at 5.5...I only played it at 3 because that was a bad line IMO, the line should have been 5 or 5.5...

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Looks at Monday's games:

Dallas at Charlotte: If Charlotte was winless at Home this season, I would not have bet Dallas here, but the Bobcats have beaten Cleveland already here, so the drive for that FIRST Home win of the season, which can be a strong motivatioal factor if it hasn't happened into Week 3, is not there...Nonetheless, CHAR has beaten SA at SA this season and this Bobcats team will give teams fits this year as they are a quick, scrappy, solid defensive team an will play hard for 48 minutes...I got Dallas -3, not because I really love Dallas here, but because Vegas (or Pinnacle) opened with a bad line and because I am hoping Brevin Knight does not play tonight, their point-guard and most important player...A good hedge for betting Dallas wuould be to take this game Under...Because if CHAR wins or covers, the game should be an Under...CHAR is still the top defensive team in the league in terms of FG% allowed and Dallas, who was last, is now 27th, and expect them to continue to improve their because Coach Avery Johnson preaches defense and as soon as Josh Howard returns, I expect Dallas to get to the midle of the pack fairly quickly with that stat...The Under is the only way to go here with the total as CHAR's only Home Over since opening night was against Denver (does this even count?) and in fact, since opening night, that Denver game is their ONLY Over in their last 8 games (in regulation time)...The total has moved up 3.5 points since it opened but that's better for me if I bet it...All 4 of these h2h meetings have gone Under and Dallas has won all 4 games against this franchise by at least 6 points...Only one way to go on this total: Under...

Houston at New York: Who in their right mind would have thought that 3 weeks into the season that NY would be a better defensive team than Houston (in terms of FG% allowed)??...Not me...But NY is 13th in the league in FG% allowed, while Houston is just 16th...This would explain why Houston is having a LOT more Overs this year anyway...This is another trap-like game...I may be falling through the trap-door in the Dallas game, and I may fall into this trap, too...Hard to cap a Knicks game off their last contest where a whopping 113 Free throws were attempted (63 by BOS and 50 by NY) and 6 players fouled out...Neither team shot particularly well...Houston has won 4 straight and 6 of 7 in this head-to-head series, only covering 3 times and NY has in fact covered 3 straight...HOU hasn't lost 2 straight all season...NY had 4 straight Unders before their last game, so this is a mini chart-play to the Over...

Orlando at Memphis: The Magic have been a great chart-play after their NC5 as they have now covered 4 straight...However, the Grizz have lost 7 straight and would have to be hungry here for a "W" in fron of the home crowd... So I guess this is trap-game #3 on the day...I don't expect evey Away team or every Home team to cover these first 3 games, but I think the Home team with the best chance to win outright is MEMP...The Memphis newspaper says that the players are not feeling sorry for themsleves and like the new uptempo offense, and are still hungry to get some wins...MEMP is 7-1 SU and ATS the last 8 vs. ORL, but those numbers can more or less be tossed here with the injury to Gasol...Despite the up-tempo offense, the last game for MEMP was very slow-paced, which worries me slightly and will keep me off this total although the Over would seem to be the play here...5

Toronto at Utah: The Raptors are a chart-play here, because after a NC5, they hve covered their last 2...Let-down spot here for Utah off a big win over PHOE...Utah has 5 straight Overs and the Raptors are a run-and-gun squad and the Over certainly is the logical play here...Problem is TOR doesn't shoot for a high percentage from the floor and doesn't get to the FT much, so they may need to hit close to 48% to get Over this total and I am not sure if I can put money on that this time around...

San Antonio at Portland: SA has been a terrible back-to-back team lately (starting last season) to the point where it has even become a team issue...Coach Popovich didn't play any starter more than 33 minutes last night as he tries to keep his players as rested as possible for the back-enders...PORT has been a lot better at Home, yet the Spurs have still coverd 4 of the last 6 at PORT h2h...I think PORT can cover the number here, as the Spurs are already 1-2 on the back-end of bk-2-bks this season SU & ATS this season...PORT had 5 Unders in a row and then 4 straight Overs and now an Under last time out...Lean here to the under as 4 of the last 5 h2h have gone Under...

New Jersey at Seattle: The Nets shot 33.3% last time out vs. PORT, so an automatic look for me to NJ here, but this line is awfully low...It is a quick-revenge spot here for NJ, but SEA has won 4 of the last 5 h2h against NJ...SEA had covered 6 straight and now have a NC3, so it's still a chart-play to fade SEA here...These teams have gone Over 3 straight h2h...No strong opinion either way here...

Phoenix at Golden State: Baron Davis is questionable and Steve Nash is questionable, yet the line has moved 5 points in PHOE's favor...So this tells me that someone knows that Nash is playing or Davis is not or both...GS has won and covered 7 straight, but if Davis and Murphy don't play and if Nash does play, then PHOE would be the ONLY play here...The total is at 216.5 and with both starting point-guards questionable, there is no way I can touch the Over (or even the Under for that matter)...If everyone plays, then the Over is certainly the logical play...

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**Kaptain** · 11-20-2006, 05:57 PM

gl tonight----kapt

**brewers7** · 11-20-2006, 06:24 PM

Originally posted by Kaptain

gl tonight----kapt

Thanx...

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I want to pull the trigger so bad on Memphis and Toronto as I feel MEMP will win this game and feel Toronto has an outside shot at winning this and certainly staying under the number...From a handicapping point of view, Toronto may be the strongest play on the board, but I have watched them play and they cannot hit the ocean at times...Depending on how the Dallas game is looking early, I may bet Toronto, we'll see...

Also considering the Dal/Char Over in the 1Q...Brevin Knight playing tonight changes a lot...This game has a shot at going Over now and CHAR has a good chance to win now...I hope Dallas shows up because that bet is already in...

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Monday's Picks for tracking purposes:

Sides:

1) Dal, 2) Port, 3) Phoe, 4) Tor, 5) Memp, 6) Hou, 7) NJ

Totals:

1) Dal un, 2) Tor ov, 3) Memp ov, 4) Hou ov, 5) Port un, 6) NJ un, 7) Phoe un

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**LVJimmy** · 11-20-2006, 09:30 PM

nice call on Dallas buddy

**molta02** · 11-20-2006, 11:28 PM

thanks for the winner

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NBA Week 4 thread (28-15, +$1566 on the year)...

NBA Week 4 thread (28-15, +$1566 on the year)...

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