NBA Week 3 thread (20-10, +$1079 on the year)...

[vinnyvegas]

GL B, on the Phx, Was & Dal sides as well. Good to see you like them.

Have a great weekend

[bwade210]

Good luck buddy!

[videoman]

Thanks For The Pick, Line.appreciate It!

[brewers7]

I am hearing that Steve nash is OUT tonight...

If I see a 2H play tonight, I'll play it, but had to grab this before it goes up any more...

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Saturday, November 18

Toronto/Denver over 216 -- $164 to win $150

It opened at 213, but I was handicapping the NHL and figured it wouldn't move too much in an hour...Yeah, right...Up to 215 in no time flat and I actually bought up a point to get 216 at lower juice...Toronto hasn't hit 216 yet and have a game pending yet tonight against the Lakers, but the Raptors are shooting around 40% in a lot of these games and still reaching totals of 209, 210 & 213...I had this game circled 3 days ago...No way the total should be less than 220...Denver is about as wide-open as it gets, save Phoenix, and Toronto is run-and-gun, with a very fast pace to their games and a lot of shots going up...Previous trends are out the window here, in my estimation, as I simply see these teams running-and-gunning all game long and unless Denver gets up by 30 or we have bricks going up all night, this should hit 220...

Good Luck...brewers7
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[brewers7]

This is my 2nd play for Saturday...Big board, lots of trends in play, there may be more...

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Saturday, November 18

Memphis/Dallas over 189 -- $110 to win $100

People are pounding the daylights out of this Over at Pinnacle as it is 188 with -135 juice there, so ran over to 5dimes and took the 189 at normal juice...This is the second-half of a Home-and-Home series and yes, I know all about these teams playing games in the 170s and 180s the past several seasons, but Memphis has apparantly changed their offensive philosophy and are playing small-ball and using their speed and quickness to produce some more offense...I generally don't like taking an Over on the back-end of a Home-and-Home after an extreme Over in the first game, but I don't think Vegas is moving the line enough to catch up with the new Memphis offensive style...But you need to bet it now before all value is lost, but heck, the way Memphis is playing now, 200 may not be a problem...This is obviously still a strong chart-play for me for the Over, and if you need more details on the new Memphis offensive style, then see my post for Friday's Over with these same two teams...

Good Luck...brewers7
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[molta02]

thanks for the winner tonite. gl tomorrow

[brewers7]

Made 2 bets already for SAT...

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Early looks at Saturday's games (remember these are looks and info I am passing along and is by no means a "play" on anything yet):

Cleveland at Washington: Cleveland will undoubtedly be the square play of the day (61% of the early bets already on CLE), because how could the team with the best record in the league be getting points against Washington, who has been playing terrible...Larry Hughes will be missing his second game with a sprained ankle...His teammates rose up to win and cover last night...WASH will be the team with the motivation here as they were eliminated by the Cavs in the playoffs last year and beaten on National television the 2nd night of this season at CLE...It is the Wiz or no-play for me...WAS has 3 straight Unders after 4 straight Overs...This Vegas total looks high to me for this series...

Charlotte at Orlando: These teams hav gone Over 6 of 8 in this h2h series, but that Vegas total just looks too high to me...CHAR has only gone Over twice in 8 games this season in regulation and one was against Denver, so does that even count?...CHAR is 1st in FG% allowed and ORL is 3rd...If you don't count back-end of bk-2-bk games, ORL hasn't gone Over since the first 2 games of the season...And 8.5 also looks like too many points despite CHAR off a huge upset win at SA...This h2h series is tied at 4-4...

Miami at Atlanta: Not sure why we are waiting for a line here when we know Shaq is out for 4 to 6 weeks...Miami will be a Dog here, a rare spot for them as they have dominated this h2h series recently...The Heat have won 13 of the last 15 straight up, covering 11...Atlanta did win the last meeting, but this was a meaningless game on the second-to-last day of the season last year and Miami sat Wade, SHAQ, Mourning & Peyton in that contest...So can we even count that one?...13 wins in the last 14 h2h for Miami before that meaningless game...But how flat are the Champs right now?...Miami was 6-10 ATS last season on the back-end of bk-2-bks...This has been an Over series recently h2h with 8 of the last 10 going Over...

Portland at New Jersey: The Blazers are finally falling back to reality on this disastrous Road trip...This will be their 4th game in 5 nights, and for people in the know, when we have a game like thisthe general rule of thumb is to take the Away Team every time...This situational spot is 5-2 ATS for the Away Team thus far this season...PORT had one 4-of-5 game last year on the Road at MILW and covered that spot...NJ heads West after this game...I cannot go against the trend here, but won't bet PORT because I suddenly do not trust them after they have lost and not covered 4 straight...This series has gone Under 5 straight and 8 of 10, but PORT is still a chart-play for me because after 5 straight Unders, they now have 4 straight Overs and NJ had their 232 total on their only back-ender this season...

Houston at Detroit: This h2h series had gone Under 5 straight until an Over on 1/22/06 last season at Detroit...Houston playing a surprising number of Overs to this point of the season...Pistons not getting any respect here as they are a Pick in their own building...But it is understandable as HOU looks solid and the Pistons no longer have that dominating presence, so even though DET has covered 8 of the last 10 in this series, the Rockets covered here last season losing by 2 as 11.5 Dogs...I have no opinion either way...

Boston at New York: Coach Isiah Thomas said in the preseason that until the Knicks are mathematically eliminated, their goal is to win the championship this year...That may be optimism on creatine, but the Knicks have won 2 straight and are 4-6 with a win-able game at MSG tonight...However, Boston has won 7-of-9 in this h2h series...3 of the last 4 and 5 of 7 have gone Under h2h...NY suddenly has 4 straight Unders after 4 straight Overs, but I don't foresee NY ever having an extended Under streak thiss eason...BOS has 2 straight Overs and this game just smells like an Over to me...Both teams shot over 50% last night, so can they keep that up tonight?...

New Orleans at Minnesota: No line yet and I am not sure why here...Looked around for an injury (maybe Blount is questionable after Friday night's game?)...The hornets have covered 7 of 8 h2h in this series...They are 1-0 ATS so far when they have rest and their opponent does not, but that was a Home game (vs. HOU)...Minny is 1-1 on the back-end of bk-2-bks, covering the 4-of-5 spot and both were on the Road while this one is at Home...6 of the last 8 have gone Over in this h2h series...NO 8th and Minny 9th in FG% allowed thus far, though, and Minny Under in BOTH of their back-enders this season, so the Under is a natural look...

Indiana at Milwaukee: The Home Team has won 8 of the last 10 and the Under has gone 7 of 10 in this h2h series...This Vegas total looks low at first blush to me, but this is a chart-play for the MILW Under as they have 2 straight Unders after 5 straight Overs...Indy is 1-2 SU and ATS in the back-end of bk-2-bks on the Road so far this season...

Memphis at Dallas: Dallas has won and covered 13 of their last 14 vs. Memphis, including last year's first-round sweep over the Grizzlies...However, this is the back-end of a Home-and-Home, so since Dallas covered the front-end at Memphis, my kneejerk handicapping reaction to the back-end is to take Memphis and the points as they don't even need to win to cover the spread here...However, Dallas is certainly the chart-play, now on a C4 after a NC4 to the start the season and it's 4 wins after 4 losses, too...For tonight, Dallas has 4 straight Overs and MEMP, after 6 straight Unders in regulation, has 2 straight BIG-TIME Overs, so this is a strong chart-play to the Over for them...And I id point out already the new offensive scheme now implemented by the Grizz...

Toronto at Denver: I marked this game on my calendar 3 days ago...Over-Over-Over...Denver has installed a new Phoenix-like offense for this season, and although they don't have the right personnel in place to run this system, the Nuggets have still gone Over 5 of 7 games this season (pushing their last total at ORL)...These teams basically run and gun and look to get as many shots off in as short an amount of time as possible...DEN is 25th and TOR is 27th in FG% allowed, so defense will be an after-thought here and unless Denver kills this team by 25 or 30, this game should hit 225 or 230 or above unless they are clanking bricks all night...Toronto might be a charrt-play here on the Side as they covered last night (barely) after Not covering 5 straight...


Phoenix at Utah: No line as Steve Nash is questionable with back spasms...Everything hinges on Nash playing here...PHOE is an Under team without him, and I don't know if they Cover here 2 nights in a row without him...This is a quick-revenge spot for PHOE who lost to Utah at Home on 11/3...Utah is already 2-0 SU & ATS this season when they AND their opponent are on the back-end of bk-2-bks, while PHOE is 0-1 SU & ATS in the same spot...Coach Dunleavy of the Clippers said the Jazz are the best team in the Western Conference after the Clips got throttled by Utah on 11/14...But I would have to take PHOE whether Nash plays or not and the total should go Over if Nash plays and Under if he doesn't...Utah is Over 4 straight...

Philadelphia at LA Clippers: The Clips got mangled by the Jazz at Utah and have had 3 days rest to lick their wounds from that 22-point loss...We have a chart-play against the Clips because they didn't cover last time out after 4 straight Covers...Clips are 0-2 on the Road, but 5-0 at Home (4-1 ATS)...Philly has covered 4 of the last 5 times at LAC...Clips Under 4 of their 5 Home games with PHOE being the obly Over, so I lean to the Under here...

Seattle at Golden State: At first blush, how does this game NOT go Over?...GS shot 57.7% two nights ago and SEA shot 53.6% last night, so my kneejerk handicapping reaction would be to think Under here with these teams coming off solid shooting nights...GS is 12th in FG% allowed (a bit surprising), while SEA is 28th (no surprise)...GS has gone Under 4 straight games at Home vs. SEA, with 202 being the highest scoring game...GS has covered 6 straight in this h2h series...GS has also covered 6 straight overall THIS season coming into this contest...GS 2-1 SU & ATS when they have rest and their opponent does not this season...Seattle is 2-0 ATS in the back-end of bk-2-bks so far this season...
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[brewers7]

Ok, cannot help myself here...I have to add another $150 bet on this total...I was seriously considering this as a maximum play bet ($1000), but it is too early in the season to be betting that big on a total...I just don't see any way this game doesn't hit 220, but maybe I am wrong here...

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(Additional bet on this total):

Saturday, November 18

Toronto/Denver over 215 -- $150 to win $153

Total coming down slightly...That is fine with me...Toronto hasn't hit 215 yet and just missed going Over again last night, which is perfect for me, because tonight should be the explosion game against a Denver team who doesn't play defense...TOR won't be shooting 40% from the floor forever, and I expect close to 180 shots going up tonight...Raptors still reaching totals of 207, 209, 210 & 213...I had this game circled 3 days ago...Denver is about as wide-open as it gets, save Phoenix, and Toronto is run-and-gun, with a very fast pace to their games and a lot of shots going up...Previous trends are out the window here, in my estimation, as I simply see these teams running-and-gunning all game long and unless Denver gets up by 30 or we have bricks going up all night, this should hit 220...

Good Luck...brewers7

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Saturday's Picks for tracking purposes:

Sides:

1) Was, 2) Tor, 3) Char, 4) Phoe, 5) Port, 6) Mia, 7) Memp, 8) NO, 9) Bos, 10) GS, 11) Phi, 12) Ind, 13) Det

Totals:

1) Tor ov, 2) Memp ov, 3) Char un, 4) Bos ov, 5) Phi un, 6) Port ov, 7) Mia un, 8) NO un, 9) GS ov, 10) Det un, 11) Was un, 12) Ind un, 13) Phoe un

Note on the PHOE total: if Nash doesn't play, the Under is a MUCH stronger play...

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[brewers7]

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2nd half bet:

Saturday, November 18

New Jersey Nets, 2H, -9.5 -- $107 to win $100

NJ shooting about 25% and PORT shooting over 50% and NJ down 17 and can still cover this 2H spread even if they lose by 7 for the game...NJ ccannot play any worse here...Any kind of effort at all will get this under a 7-point deficit for the game...FG percentages should even out here...

Good Luck...brewers7

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[BAMABOY]

Love The Call I Also Took The Over 96.5 Gl !

[BAMABOY]

Almost As Bad As Miami Scoring 14 In 3rd And 4th @home Almost. Keep Em Coming

[brewers7]

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Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... ================================================== ======================
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
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Preseason posted plays: 9-3-1
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Season To Date: 27-15, +$1466

Sides: 11-4, +$743, Totals: 9-8, +$305, 1H bets: 1-1, -$4, 2H bets: 3-1, +$193, ML: 1-1, +$29, Quarters: 2-0, +$200

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Sunday, November 19

San Antonio Spurs -2.5 -- $105 to win $100

Feels like a square play here, but I feel the injury of Brad Miller is going to catch up with this Kings' team...Sure, they are unbeaten at Home, but the Spurs are unbeaten on the Road...Sure, the Spurs eliminated the Kings from the playoffs last season so the Kings should be up for this one, looking for some revenge...SA won by 3 in their only regular season trip to ARCO last season, and I will take a shot with a minimum play on the better team...I will pass on the Under here although SA has played 5 straight Unders in regulation and although SAC has 3 straight Overs, they were against TOR, GS and a MEMP team trying out a new offense...This total is a bit high for these 2 teams...

Good Luck...brewers7
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Sunday's Picks for tracking purposes:

Sides:

1) SA, 2) Chi

Totals:

1) SA un, 2) Chi un

Chicago at LA Lakers: Ben Gordon is probable...The Bulls have lost 3 straight and I just don't see them losing 4 in a row here...The Bulls won here last year...These two teams have gone Under 5 straight h2h...The Lakers have 5 straight Unders after starting the year with 4 straight Overs...Lean to the Under here...

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Please note: Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...
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Recent Results:
Yesterday: 1-2 (+$86)
Last 3 days: 3-2 (+$386)
Last 7 days: 8-4 (+$487)
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Database sample links: http://www.tricountyleague.com/TeamSample.xls
http://www.tricountyleague.com/SeasonBySeasonSample.xls
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Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Money management…Bet with your head, not over it...Stay humble…Act professional…
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[bwade210]

Good luck my friend!

[molta02]

thanks man, and GL

[vinnyvegas]

B7, nice hit.