NBA Week 3 thread (20-10, +$1079 on the year)...

[brewers7]

I apologize for lateness, but I have to add:

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Additional play

Wednesday, November 15

Washington/New York, 1Q, over 51.5, $110 to win $100

Wizards Over in every 1Q until their last game...Knicks Under in every 1Q except for the Denver game, but the Nuggets play a fast pace, like the Wiz...I think the points go up early here...

Good Luck...brewers7
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[videoman]

thanks brewhaha, going with all of 'em!!!

[brewers7]

First off, I need to apologize for making my first bad bet of the year...I forced that Over a bit as I did see enough handicapping "evidence" ahead of time that normally would make that game a "no-play" for me...But I pushed it when I should have left it go by the wayside, and I apologize, because I have been doing this long enough now to know better than to make stupid decisions like that...I owe anybody who tails me better quality handicapping than that donkey play I bet and actually made a play for the viewing public...My bad...I will do my best not to make a stupid decision like that one again...Close losses always happen and I have had plenty of those and accept those tough losses, but flat-out bad bets are inexcusable and I offer no excuses for that bad play...I am better than that and smarter than that...

Ok. time to move onward and hopefully upwards...

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Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... ================================================== ======================
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
================================================== ======================
Preseason posted plays: 9-3-1
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Season To Date: 24-13, +$1080

Sides: 10-4, +$593, Totals: 7-7, -$38, 1H bets: 1-1, -$4, 2H bets: 3-0, +$300, ML: 1-1, +$29, Quarters: 2-0, +$200

System Plays: 0-0

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Thursday, November 16

Golden State Warriors -4 -- $110 to win $100

This opening line confuses and confounds me, so I must bet it now because I strongly suspect that this line will move towards 6 as the day moves on...I would have released it at 6 or 6.5, but I am not a linesmaker or a bookie...I guess Troy Murphy is worth a point or 2 by being questionable, but he isn't the key to this team as far as I am concerned, Baron Davis is...Which leads me to my first point...GS is 3-0 SU & ATS vs. SAC when Baron Davis is in the lineup and 1-2 SU and 1-1-1 ATS when Davis is out...GS is already 7-4 their last 11 SU against SAC and 9-2-1 ATS against them their last 12...SAC was a good team last season in the back-end of bk-2-bk games, but started 0-3 ATS in this situational spot on the Road in 2005-06...SAC is 0-1 ATS already this season, meanwhile GS is 1-1 ATS when they have rest and their opponent does not this season...GS was 6-4 ATS in this situational spot last year at Home, but I expect that to improve this season under Nellie...Their loss was against the Lakers, who were just dialed in those first 2 games of the season and GS was flat in their opener...GS has won 4 of 5 and covered 5 straight and Nellie has them playing well...It doesn't matter if Murphy plays or not...Artest had a sore back last night and it was sore enough in fact that he did not start against Memphis, but came off the bench and played 39 minutes...Will his back be 100% tonight?...Mike Bibby also played 42 minutes last night...This looks too easy, which is always scary to me, but I like GS to win this game, and 4 should not be an issue...Again, Murphy is questionable, but hey, what if he plays and Artest's back puts him on the shelf tonight?...Then I just beat the line-move...And if Murphy doesn't play and Artest is fine, I am still A-OK with laying 4 any day of the week in this situational spot against the Kings...

Good Luck...brewers7
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Thursday's Picks for tracking purposes:

pending...

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Please note: Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...
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Recent Results:
Yesterday: 3-1 (+$120)
Last 3 days: 4-3 (+$1)
Last 7 days: 8-6 (+$82)
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Database sample links: http://www.tricountyleague.com/TeamSample.xls
http://www.tricountyleague.com/SeasonBySeasonSample.xls
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Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Money management…Bet with your head, not over it...Stay humble…Act professional…
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[KazDog]

Thanks for the Sixers pick....Good luck tomorrow

KAZ

[brewers7]

Golden State Warriors -4 -- $110 to win $100

The bet should be this: Golden State Warriors -4 -- $165 to win $150

the original bet listed in the post was a typo...

GL folks...

[KazDog]

Hey Brewer....Can you start a new thread at some point? Would make it easier to get to your picks....

Also, I'm rooting like hell for Golden State because I have them over 36.5 for the season....So far, so good

KAZ

[DIRK]

Wash winner by the hook nice.

[bwade210]

Good luck my friend!

[BAMABOY]

NICE CALL ON PHILLY DIFFERENCE MAKER FOR ME. APPRECIATE YOUR WORK. THANK YOU !

[brewers7]

maybe I can start a new thread if we get too cluttered here, but it's easier for me to find 1 thread a week...I'll consider it...

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Thursday's Picks for tracking purposes:

Sides:

1) GS, 2) Chi

Totals:

1) Chi un, 2) GS ov

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Chicago at Houston: No strong opinions here except to say, when in doubt, I always take the points...Both teams coming off tough losses and are in bounce-back mode...The Bulls have been super-flaky to this point this season, which will happen when a team relies solely on outside shooting to win games on offense, so I am picking my spots carefully with this team...Both teams are defensive-minded, so the Under is the natural play, except this is a National TV game on TNT, where it just seems like games find ways to get Over the total...

Sacramento at Golden State: The h2h numbers here point to the Under as 8 of the last 10 h2h have gone Under and both teams have more Unders this season than Overs...But GS is a team that can go Over on any given night...SAC likes to slow the pace generally speaking, but a no-play for me again as NAtional TV games seem to go Over more often than not (not counting playoffs)...GS is 3-0 SU & ATS vs. SAC when Baron Davis is in the lineup and 1-2 SU and 1-1-1 ATS when Davis is out...GS is already 7-4 their last 11 SU against SAC and 9-2-1 ATS against them their last 12...SAC was a good team last season in the back-end of bk-2-bk games, but started 0-3 ATS in this situational spot on the Road in 2005-06...SAC is 0-1 ATS already this season, meanwhile GS is 1-1 ATS when they have rest and their opponent does not this season...GS was 6-4 ATS in this situational spot last year at Home, but I expect that to improve this season under Nellie...Their loss was against the Lakers, who were just dialed in those first 2 games of the season and GS was flat in their opener...GS has won 4 of 5 and covered 5 straight and Nellie has them playing well...It doesn't matter if Murphy plays or not...Artest had a sore back last night and it was sore enough in fact that he did not start against Memphis, but came off the bench and played 39 minutes...Will his back be 100% tonight?...Mike Bibby also played 42 minutes last night...

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[SACPAC]

Good Luck Brew..my Only Nba Bet Is Gs Also....

[brewers7]

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Early looks at Friday's games, although not a lot of significant trends jumping out here as I don't like this board much...Should be a lot of trends kicking in for Saturday's big board:

New Jersey at Indiana: Have no choice but to look at Indy here as they shot 38% from the field last game while getting buried at Boston and NJ shot 55% while beating Milwaukee...Indy also was eliminated by the Nets in the playoffs last year and this is the first meeting since then...Indy had covered 4 straight h2h vs. NJ in the regular season...Nothing significant standing out on the total except both teams are playing more Unders than Overs in games that are NOT back-ends of bk-2-bk nights...

New York at Miami: No line listed due to SHAQ being questionable...This had been an Under series in the past, but some Overs are sneaking in, including 2 out of 3 Overs last season...Miami has won and covered 4 straight h2h...Knicks won't go Under forever, so this could be the game where there 3-game undeer steak ends as Miami may decide to run with them...

Portland at Boston: I don't see any valid reason why PORT is getting 7.5 points here...The Celtics have covered 3 straight in this h2h series...I suppose since the Blazers have lost 4 straight on the Road, not covering any of them is the reason, but PORT was within 4 points of covering in ALL 4 of those games...They are a great teaser team right now as they are just missing getting under these numbers...Possible let-down spot here for the Celts here after the dominating win over Indy last time out...PORT is a chart-play to the Over because after 5 straight Unders, they have gone Over 3 straight...

Minnesota at Cleveland: The Cavs have quietly put together the best record in the East at this early stage of the season...Minny is 9th and Cleve is 11th in FG% allowed...Minny has covered 6 of the last 8 in this h2h series...No strong opinion here, but when in doubt, I take the points...These teams have been playing Unders this season as CLE is Under 6 of their 8 games in regulation...Minny has 2 straight Overs after being Under 4 of 5...

Washington at Detroit: What is wrong with the Pistons?...DET is 19th in FG% allowed...The Pistons had owned WASH until last season, when the Wiz swept them in the regular season, winning all 3 games (although the final one was a game where Detroit sat most of their starters on the last day of the season)...WASH has had back-to-back games where they have shot terrible, 35% vs. NJ and 31.5% vs. NY, so how long will this go on?...DET has also lost 2 straight, but shooting poorly hasn't been the issue...I would expect DET to rise up here, but wouldn't bet on it...If you don't count that final regular season game last season between these two where many DET starters didn't even play, this series has had 7 straight Overs and a push...

Dallas at Memphis: Dallas has won and covered 12 of their last 13 vs. Memphis, including last year's first-round sweep over the Grizzlies...However, this is the first of a Home-and-Home, so I could wait until this game tonight is in the books and go the other way tomorrow...Dallas is still a bit of a chart-play after a NC4 (all losses), they have covered 3 straight (all wins)...I don't see Dallas slowing down and see them covering tonight and then not covering tomorrow at Home when they are favored by 9 or 10...For tonight, Dallas has 3 straight Overs and MEMP, after 6 straight Unders in regulation, had their first Over (in a big way) at SAC, so this may be a strong chart-play to the Over for them...

Chicago at San Antonio: The Bulls have covered 5 straight games at SA and won there last season...However, I kind of pity CHI here facing SA off a big upset loss to Charlotte last time out at Home...Ben Wallace did hurt his bicep last night and I am not 100% certain he'll play after reading the Chicago newspapers online...For me, this is a Spurs or no-play situation...Major bounce-back spot here...CHI has gone Over 4 of 5, and the Spurs have gone Under 4 straight in regulation...No opinion on that total although these 2 teams have gone Over 3 straight h2h...

Utah at Seattle: Seattle has won 3 straight in this h2h series...Utah is off to an awesome start, sporting the league's best record...So is this trap-city here?...Seems to be, but this is the second game with AK47 out for Utah...Does this matter?...Not according to 82games.com:

http://www.82games.com/0607/0607UTA.HTM

These numbers can be deceiving sometimes, but whenever a team has an injured players this website is good to find out whether a tam really misses that player or not...Just click on all of the teams and check it out...Big surprise how important Wade is to Miami, huh?...Anyway, this game has trap written all over it...Is Utah peeking ahead to PHOE tomorrow night at Home?...Utah 3 straight Overs...No opinion on this total right now...

Philadelphia at Phoenix: The Suns have won and covered 4 straight in this h2h series fairly easily...The Suns have 5 days rest to prepare for this one...After a 2-5 start, I would imagine PHOE will be dying to get back on the court and take out their frustrations on someone...Sixers off a nice win, but they used defense to notch that "W"...Both of Philly's last 2 trips to PHOE stayed Under because the Suns were killing them, a 20-point win and a 29-point win...Pointspread seems a bit low, so I am going to want to watch the line-move here...My gut says PHOE blows them out, which may keep it Under, although it's hard for me to EVER bet a PHOE game under...

Toronto at LA Lakers: Toronto seems to be a slow-starting team under Coach Sam Mitchell as the Raptors were 0-8 ATS last season and are 1-6 this season ATS, thus far, with a current NC5 going...Lake-show with 4 days rest to prepare for this one, but the Lakers have a tendency to play to the level of their competition...Kobe went off on this Raptors' team for 81 points last year at Staples...LAL has covered 4 straight at Staples vs. TOR...Again, for me, when in doubt, take the points, but man the Raptors aren't playing wel right now...I think this total can fly Over 207 as TOR shot 40% their last outing vs. GS and still fell a bucket or 2 away from going Over...Lakers 4 straight Unders after 4 Overs to start the season and the Raptors had an Under last time out after 4 straight Overs...
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[BAMABOY]

THANK YOU VERY MUCH !

[GrandPa]

Appreciate the writeups, b7, as this section is part of my daily "must-read" list.

[brewers7]

Thanx, guys...

================================================== ======================
Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... ================================================== ======================
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
================================================== ======================
Preseason posted plays: 9-3-1
================================================== ======================
Season To Date: 25-13, +$1230

Sides: 11-4, +$743, Totals: 7-7, -$38, 1H bets: 1-1, -$4, 2H bets: 3-0, +$300, ML: 1-1, +$29, Quarters: 2-0, +$200

System Plays: 0-0

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Friday, November 17

Dallas/Memphis over 186 -- $165 to win $150

Like I said in my overview of today's games, this is a strong chart-play for me because Dallas has hit their offensive stride with 3 straight Overs and MEMP just had their first Over in regulation time, but it wasn't just an Over, it was a game that went Over by almost 50 points...Why did that happen?...Maybe this excerpt from the Memphis newspaper, the Commercial Appeal will give us some insight:


INSIDE THE GRIZZLIES

For the first time this season, the Griz can be encouraged by how well they played offensively. Committing to essentially a four-guard lineup created better ball movement, a faster pace and easier shots in their past two games. Said coach Mike Fratello: "What we've seen is that our most productive minutes have been when we go with speed and quickness. (The Sacramento game) was a step forward in the right direction." Eddie Jones is suffering from a sore Achilles so his status remains up in the air. It'll be a daily call as to whether he'll play. After sitting out Wednesday's loss at Sacramento, Jones will have had four days rest and could be available. The Griz spent Thursday traveling so there was no word yet concerning rookie Rudy Gay's availability. Gay, who started Wednesday in place of Jones, suffered a mild sprained ankle against the Kings.


This would seem to tell me that the Griz are going to play small-ball and use their quickness to run up and down the floor...I also read another article in that paper where it seemed as though management was pressuring Coach Fratello to speed up the pace and go with the younger, quicker players...For me, it is generally a red-flag when a team suddenly goes Over a total by 50 points in regulation time after being a stone Under team all season...This is a strong chart-play for me, so there is no other way to go but Over...

Good Luck...brewers7
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Friday's Picks for tracking purposes:

Sides:

1) Port, 2) Phoe, 3) Sea, 4) SA, 5) Was, 6) NY, 7) Tor, 8) Dal, 9) Ind, 10) Min

Totals:

1) Dal ov, 2) Tor ov, 3) Was ov, 4) Port ov, 5) NY ov, 6) SA un, 7) Ind ov, 8) Sea ov, 9) Min ov, 10) Phoe un

================================================== ======================
Please note: Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...
================================================== ======================
Recent Results:
Yesterday: 1-0 (+$150)
Last 3 days: 4-3 (+$1)
Last 7 days: 8-6 (+$132)
================================================== ======================
Database sample links: http://www.tricountyleague.com/TeamSample.xls
http://www.tricountyleague.com/SeasonBySeasonSample.xls
================================================== ======================
Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Money management…Bet with your head, not over it...Stay humble…Act professional…
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