NBA Week 3 thread (20-10, +$1079 on the year)...

[thaikarate1]

Damn, my line is up to 213

[brewers7]

Brewers is the second record you list above the bold plays only? This record:

#1 Sides 10-3 thru Week 2
#1 Totals 8-5 thru Week 2

Vinny, thanx for explaining...

The bets are what is being tracked for my 21-10 record and money up...

I list all of "picks for tracking purposes" because I know from posting on forums the last couple of years that people want to see my top 3 sides or my #1 side and #1 total...I handicap EVERY game and list those picks in order of preference from best to "worst"...

If guys are capping games themselves and see my top 3 sides agree with their picks, even though I may not bet those, some people feel more comfortable betting those if I list them and I provide reasons for picking those which is why I try and provide write-ups of the games so people see my thought-process...

GL...

[brewers7]

================================================== ======================
Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... ================================================== ======================
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
================================================== ======================
Preseason posted plays: 9-3-1
================================================== ======================
Season To Date: 21-10, +$1229

Sides: 9-3, +$597, Totals: 7-5, +$286, 1H bets: 1-1, -$4, 2H bets: 3-0, +$300, ML: 0-1, -$50, Quarters: 1-0, +$100

System Plays: 0-0

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Additional play (posted Tor/GS Over 211 earlier):

Tuesday, November 14

Charlotte Bobcats +7 -- $104 to win $100

David West is Out for New Orleans, and the Hornets haven't won since starting the season 4-0...And NO has covered all 4 meetings vs the Bobcats, winning the last 3...These are 2 of the top 3 defensive teams in the league in terms of FG% allowed, so I certainly expect an Under here, but even more so, I would expect a close game...The Bobcats had 29 turnovers their last outing, and only about 70 teams have had more turnovers in a game the last 15 seasons, spanning over 18,000 games...After a high number of turnovers like that, a team generally makes a concerted effort to protect the ball their next game so I expect the Bobcats to be focused and be in this game right to the buzzer...Hornets haven't covered 4 straight and were a very streaky ATS team last year, too, so it is certainly possible if not probable that being a 7-point FAV will extend this NC (Not-Cover) streak...

Good Luck...brewers7
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Tuesday's Picks for tracking purposes:

1) Char, 2) Milw, 3) Min, 4) Dal, 5) Hou, 6) Tor, 7) Mia, 8) Utah

Totals:

1) Tor ov, 2) Hou un, 3) Utah un, 4) Char un, 5) Milw ov, 6) Mia ov, 7) Min un, 8) Dal un

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Please note: Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...
================================================== ======================
Recent Results:
Yesterday: 1-0 (+$150)
Last 3 days: 3-2 (+$136)
Last 7 days: 7-4 (+$731)
================================================== ======================
Database sample links: http://www.tricountyleague.com/TeamSample.xls
http://www.tricountyleague.com/SeasonBySeasonSample.xls
================================================== ======================
Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Money management…Bet with your head, not over it...Stay humble…Act professional…
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[videoman]

thanks brewer...nice record. i've been enjoying your picks!!keep it up.

[TMAC951]

Thanks for the plays buddy! BOL tonight im on them both! GL!!

[Tnbreakers]

I will tail as well. Thanks and GL.

[BillMill71]

Good luck, very strong analysis and picks, look forward to your continued posts

[brewers7]

2 really tough losses yesterday as CHAR was terrible in the 4Q to not cover by 1 basket and Toronto was even worse, going 6-for-23 in the 4Q and shooting less than 30% in the 2H for me to lose that total by 1 bucket, a game that looked easy at the half...

Onwards and hopefully upwards...Remember it is a 24-week regular season grind and it's impossible to win every day...

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Wednesday, November 15

Washington/New York over 212.5 -- $159 to win $150

At first glance, this looked like a $300 bet to me, but as I look at it more, there are enough factors that point toward the Under here to keep this at the amount I did bet...All 4 games between these 2 teams did go Under last year, but the last 2 were Wizards' blowouts where the scoring slowed down tremendously in the 2H...In those two games (at WASH) the Wiz were up by 22 in one game and 26 in the other at the half...The totals were 116 and 100 at the half in those games...The Knicks haven't been throttled yet this season as Isiah Thomas won't let this team quit, so I am not seeing anything resembling a blowout here...A key factor for me is WASH shooting just 35% in their last vs. NJ, an OT loss that stayed Under despite going to OT...In that game, Gilbert Arenas and Antawn Jamison combined to shoot 9-for-39, which is less than 25%...The Knicks don't have the defense to stop those two, and the Wiz had 5 games last season where they shot 38% or less from the field and went Over in 5 of them...Other than Denver, the Knicks really haven't played any offensive-minded teams, so there is plenty of potential here for a shootout...Not really sure which way this total will move, but it should go up another point or 2...

Good Luck...brewers7
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[brewers7]

alright it is late and I need to go to bed, and I re-read this and see I messed up...Toward the bottom, it should read:

The Knicks don't have the defense to stop those two, and the Wiz had 7 games last season where they shot 38% or less from the field and in their NEXT GAME, they went Over in 5 of those 7...

GL...

[KazDog]

Good luck tomorrow Brewers....I actually won tonight with your play because I teased the Over with the Warriors and it came through. So I thank you even though your play missed by a fraction.....

KAZ

[Gookis]

Already on that NY/Wash over myself! GL!

[BAMABOY]

gl brewers, I have been using your capping and doing well with 2nd halfs. Thanks for the great write ups and play ratings.

[brewers7]

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Looks at Wednesday's games:

Portland at Cleveland: Portland has not fared well at CLE the last 3 seasons, losing by more than tonight's spread every time...CLE seems to be sleepwalking right now as they came out flat as a pancake against BOS at Home over the weekend and were flat again out of the box against the Knicks on Monday...Boston is up next on their schedule, so maybe CLE is just bored with part of the schedule...They got up for 3 Nationally televised games and beat WAS at Home, beat SA at SA and whipped CHI at Home, but haven't covered against ATL, CHAR & BOS and covered by 1/2 a point vs. the Knicks...PORT may be a chart-play to the Over here because after 5 straight Under, they have now swung the other way with 2 straight Overs, and 6 of the last 8 h2h have gone Over in this series...PORT players did not play a ton of minutes last night...

Denver at Orlando: The Magic may be a chart-play themselves as they are now on a C2 after a NC5...Also, the Home team hss won 7 straight in this h2h series...DEN has won and covered 3 straight, and all 3 have been on this Road trip and in fact, DEN is 4-0 ATS on the Road this year (while they are 0-2 ATS at Home)...DEN lost their only back-ender in bk-2-bk nights this year...ORL has won both games this year when they had rest and their opponents did not, but are 1-1 ATS...DEN has gone Over 5 straight and ORL has gone Over all 3 of their Home games...

Washington at New York: The 5th and 7th worst defensive teams in the league in terms of FG% allowed here...But, all 4 games between these 2 teams did go Under last year, but the last 2 were Wizards' blowouts where the scoring slowed down tremendously in the 2H...In those two games (at WASH) the Wiz were up by 22 in one game and 26 in the other at the half...The totals were 116 and 100 at the half in those games...The Knicks haven't been throttled yet this season as Isiah Thomas won't let this team quit, so I am not seeing anything resembling a blowout here...A key factor for me is WASH shooting just 35% in their last vs. NJ, an OT loss that stayed Under despite going to OT...In that game, Gilbert Arenas and Antawn Jamison combined to shoot 9-for-39, which is less than 25%...The Knicks don't have the defense to stop those two, and the Wiz had 7 games last season where they shot 38% or less from the field and in their NEXT GAME, they went Over in 5 of those 7...Other than Denver, the Knicks really haven't played any offensive-minded teams, so there is plenty of potential here for a shootout...Knicks have done fairly well h2h in this series until the last 2 meetings and NY will be hungry for theur first Home win of the season, but for me, it's more or less a standard play to take a good team off a bad shooting game (WASH 35% last game) against a bad team off a good shooting night the last time out (NY 49% last game)...

Milwaukee at New Jersey: I still think NJ will struggle without richard Jefferson...NJ has won the last 3 meetings h2h...This is NJ's first game where they have rest and their opponent does not this season...Not sure how the Charlie Villanueva injury factors into the equation here for Milwaukee...MILW had gone Over 6 of 7 and last night was an Under on the closing line (which I use) but if you got the line earlier, it was another Over...These teams have gone Under 3 straight h2h...NJ is 2nd in the league in FG% allowed but MILW is 28th...Lean to the Under with the injuries...

Indiana at Boston: Tough game to cap as BOS has covered 4 straight h2h but they are banged up and not playing well at all, covering the spread just once this season...BOS has gone Under 5 of 7 in regulation this season, while the Pacers have gone Under 3 of 4 games that have not been back-end of bk-2-bk games this season...No opinion at all on this game...

New Orleans at Detroit: The Pistons lost by 32 last time out so I am inclined to automatically look at them in a bounce-back spot here at Home...DET is 0-2 ATS at Home and NO didn't cover their only back-end of a bk-2-bk...NO shot just 40% last night and have gone Under 6 of their 8 games on the season...DET has gone Under 5 of 7 and both teams have gone Under 3 straight, although in the h2h series, both games went Over last year...

Charlotte at San Antonio: The Spurs have all 4 carer meetings with 3 Covers and a push...CHAR was one of the best teams in the league last season on the back-end of bk-2-bks, going 14-6-1 ATS in this situational spot...These teams have had 3 sraight Unders h2h and the highest total in their h2h series is 189 (their first-ever meeting, the only Over...CHAR is 1st in FG% allowed while SA is 6th, so this Under would seem to be the only play here...As far as the side, I have to lean to CHAR since SA is in a big let-down spot off a huge win vs. Houston last night...

Memphis at Sacramento: SAC hasn't missed a beat playing without Brad Miller, which is a good thing because he will be out a month...The Kings are a completely different team at Home than on the Road...3-0 SU and ATS at Home...The Home team has also won 5 straight in this h2h series and 10 of 11...MEMP has gone under all 6 of their games this season in regulation...SAC has gone Under 4 of 6 this year...

Philadelphia at Seattle: This h2h series has turned into an Away Team special...Philly has covered 6 of the last 7 in SEA, winning 5 of those games SU, while SEA has won and covered 4 of 5 at Philly...SEA has covered 6 straight overall including every game on their 5-game Road trip...SEA has gone Over in their only 2 Home games while Phiily has gone Over 2 of their 3 Away games...

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[brewers7]

================================================== ======================
Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... ================================================== ======================
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
================================================== ======================
Preseason posted plays: 9-3-1
================================================== ======================
Season To Date: 21-12, +$960

Sides: 9-4, +$493, Totals: 7-6, +$121, 1H bets: 1-1, -$4, 2H bets: 3-0, +$300, ML: 0-1, -$50, Quarters: 1-0, +$100

System Plays: 0-0

================================================== ======================

Additional play

Wednesday, November 15

Philadelphia 76ers +4 -- $108 to win $100
Philadelphia 76ers Pk -- $50 to win $79

Iverson is a warrior, therefore he will play tonight...This head-to-head series has turned into an Away Team's special...Philly has covered 6 of the last 7 in SEA, winning 5 of those games SU, while SEA has won and covered 4 of 5 at Philly...SEA has covered 6 straight overall including every game on their 5-game Road trip that spanned 7 days, they have a 3-game winning streak and now they only get one day's rest for this Home game after that 5-of-7...This wreaks of a let-down spot for the Sonics...Philly has had 4 days rest to lick their wounds from their current 3-game losing streak...Bounce-back spot for them...

Good Luck...brewers7
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Wednesday's Picks for tracking purposes:

1) Phi, 2) Memp, 3) Char, 4) Milw, 5) Bos, 6) Was, 7) Port, 8) NO, 9) Orl

Totals:

1) Was ov, 2) Char un, 3) Phi ov, 4) Orl ov, 5) Bos ov, 6) NO un, 7) Port ov, 8) Memp un, 9) Milw un

================================================== ======================
Please note: Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...
================================================== ======================
Recent Results:
Yesterday: 0-2 (-$269)
Last 3 days: 2-2 (-$19)
Last 7 days: 6-5 (+$462)
================================================== ======================
Database sample links: http://www.tricountyleague.com/TeamSample.xls
http://www.tricountyleague.com/SeasonBySeasonSample.xls
================================================== ======================
Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Money management…Bet with your head, not over it...Stay humble…Act professional…
================================================== ======================

[BAMABOY]

Thanks And Gl Tonight !