NFL Capping Discussion

[jcindaville]

Great pic JC....Are you the fucking president of the internet? Damn how quickly you come up with this shit...You are the guy on TV who tells his wife...."hunny, I just reached the end of the internet."

Bwhaa....KAZ

Jimmy taught me well

Frank looks just the same now, hasnt changed a bit

[Kaptain]

So far a few folks have provided:

Long Term and Large sample size systems
Trends
Weather
Defense - Good Defense over a good offense
Fading the public
Weekly Team research - revenge, practice, bye week, etc.
Luck

anytime theres dissention and hate on the team due to some player thinking he's above the Team, I usually factor in as a team not playing to their potential........go opposite them

who's hot, and who's not.........a teams previous weeks performance tell me a lot.......a team can lose 24-23 due to a costly fumble, and have outgaine the opposition 440 yds to 280.........I don't look at their loss, I look at how they performed againt that team........

I, personaly don't use or believe in trends, cause trends are usualyy based on entirely different players......for example, if KC was playing NO tomorrow, and the trend showed, that in 14 previous meetings the Chiefs covered, but they haven't met since 1992, then what the hell is that trend doing for you........same teams, 110 different players........

Injuries, have a little factor, if it's a particularly key player........QB, RB, CB, etc......he has to be of high quality, cause the oddsmakers know this in advance.........

One thing is really look at is teams ..

Run Offense vs opponents Run Defense
Pass Offense vs opponents Pass defense

and I always factor in how a team plays at home........somne teams are outright nasty at home.........

PS---TwoTonTony and I also factor in uniform color, along with the color of the QB's eyes, and a few more catfish things I can't really divulge...........best to ya----kapt

[BillMill71]

Thanks Kapt, agree with your points.

I think you had also mentioned in the past leveraging the Dunkel Index. If I am correct, is this within a system, or just at face value? Thanks.

[betdogs]

emotion plays a big part in the college game. i like to play against a team that pulls a huge upset the week before...i'm sure you have all seen big wins on one side where the fans storm the field and rip the goal post apart after their teams win...i like to go against that team the next week after a huge win fueled by emotion...this is in college football and college baskets also...

[frankb03]

I, personaly don't use or believe in trends, cause trends are usualyy based on entirely different players......for example, if KC was playing NO tomorrow, and the trend showed, that in 14 previous meetings the Chiefs covered, but they haven't met since 1992, then what the hell is that trend doing for you........same teams, 110 different players........

I agree. Some trends make me laugh especially with team matchups with non-conference games. How many times have we heard KC is 3-0 SU and ATS vs New Orleans? Big deal! These teams play once every 3 or 4 years. What does a game between these two teams have to do with a game played 12 years ago.

and I always factor in how a team plays at home........somne teams are outright nasty at home.........

I fell into this trap on Sunday with Minny @ Seattle. I liked Minny but was afraid to pull the trigger. Winning at home is different than covering at home. The linesmakers know the 'nasty' home teams. They inflate the line.

We all know Seattle a tough place to play. How many know that since 2003 Seattle is 23-4 SU at home and only
14-13 ATS?

Another overrated capping phrase is revenge. Cappers make it seem like the revenge game is easy. There's spots when revenge is strong. There's situations when it's meaningless.

[KazDog]

Frank....I always laugh at the very same thing. The team this year probably has completely different players than the team that played years ago or even the team that played last year. Yet trend bettors use the info as a solid betting angle....

Team A is 18-2 all time against Team B.......So what? It's a new year and a new team. Esp. if the QB is new and the coaching staff is new. Most of the time that is the case....

KAZ

[TheRook]

Thanks Rook, agree with your points.

I think you might be the wisest capper here and the whole forum is in debt to you for your wisdom.

Thanks.

Thanks Bill...much apprecaited.

[BillMill71]

Thanks Bill...much apprecaited.

Funny.

Notice I didn't say I look up to you, because the only way I could say that is if I was dirt.

Thanks short stuff

[TheRook]

Funny.

Notice I didn't say I look up to you, because the only way I could say that is if I was dirt.

Thanks short stuff