NFL Capping Discussion

[jcindaville]

Who the fuck is Frank? President Bush???

Just kidding man ....Frank is a genius. Did you know he used to sing backup for the Sugar Hill Gang? Swear to God.


I personally don't use systems. I try something completely foreign to many these days. Plain ol' reading. I read the stories from the team pages and check on things like revenge and weather and who is injured and who had a good practice during the bye week. It doesn't work all the time, but I've been pretty successful here with my big plays.....

KAZ

I loved the sugar hill gang


Frank is the one in the middle

[KazDog]

Great pic JC....Are you the fucking president of the internet? Damn how quickly you come up with this shit...You are the guy on TV who tells his wife...."hunny, I just reached the end of the internet."

Bwhaa....KAZ

[KazDog]

Frank looks good with a goatee....He must be golfing a lot, he almost looks black...

KAZ

[frankb03]

But my question is this, long term systems versus trends. How do you have one without the other, sort of the chicken/egg question for me. Once again not looking for you to expose your system, but how do you build systems without long term trends. If you only use in season stats, when does your system prove move profitable, after week 4, week 6, etc.

IMO there's a huge difference between long term systems and team trends. With systems the game hasn't really changed. Most football fans know what wins and loses games. Rushing attempts, rushing yards, turnovers and time of possession to name a few.

I have many different types of systems. Some use averages. Those don't kick in until a few weeks into the season. Others are based on the teams previous game stats. Some are based on both. Before bye week. After bye week etc.

The systems I use have long term success (since 1989) as well as short term continues success (current season and prior 2 or 3 seasons). I look for systems with lots of activity with a high win % rate. The less active a system I look for a higher win rate. As an example, my Rushing System has been active 464 times since 1989. It's win percentage is 59.5% A staggering win percentage with that many plays. I have another system that's only been active 130 times but has a win rate over 73%.

We also need to know past success and failures doesn't always translate into future ATS success. Teams that turn the ball over more than their opponent in a game cover less than 24%

However, coming into a game teams that average less turnovers than this game's opponent only cover 48.5% Teams make adjustments. How many times have we seen a team look like world beaters than the next week they play like chumps? Arizona Cards the past two weeks are a great example. The talent level in the NFL is THIS close. The old cliche "On any given Sunday" is so true in the NFL.

[frankb03]

Who the fuck is Frank? President Bush???

Just kidding man ....Frank is a genius. Did you know he used to sing backup for the Sugar Hill Gang? Swear to God.
KAZ

Kaz, you are freaking kill me. lmao



Check it out, I'm the C-A-S-A, the N-O-V-A,
And the rest is F-L-Y,

[BillMill71]

IMO there's a huge difference between long term systems and team trends. With systems the game hasn't really changed. Most football fans know what wins and loses games. Rushing attempts, rushing yards, turnovers and time of possession to name a few.

I have many different types of systems. Some use averages. Those don't kick in until a few weeks into the season. Others are based on the teams previous game stats. Some are based on both. Before bye week. After bye week etc.

The systems I use have long term success (since 1989) as well as short term continues success (current season and prior 2 or 3 seasons). I look for systems with lots of activity with a high win % rate. The less active a system I look for a higher win rate. As an example, my Rushing System has been active 464 times since 1989. It's win percentage is 59.5% A staggering win percentage with that many plays. I have another system that's only been active 130 times but has a win rate over 73%.

We also need to know past success and failures doesn't always translate into future ATS success. Teams that turn the ball over more than their opponent in a game cover less than 24%

However, coming into a game teams that average less turnovers than this game's opponent only cover 48.5% Teams make adjustments. How many times have we seen a team look like world beaters than the next week they play like chumps? Arizona Cards the past two weeks are a great example. The talent level in the NFL is THIS close. The old cliche "On any given Sunday" is so true in the NFL.

So Frank, all that being said, based upon the many systems that spit out Dallas last night, I don't believe I saw a play from you, why is that? Was there something that made you go against those systems, some in fact undefeated.

[frankb03]

So Frank, all that being said, based upon the many systems that spit out Dallas last night, I don't believe I saw a play from you, why is that? Was there something that made you go against those systems, some in fact undefeated.

I don't like 10-0 type systems. I short losing streak returns them close to 50%

I didn't like last night's game at all. I had two systems on Dallas. Neither very strong. I didn't bet on the game. I picked Dallas in the capping contest because I have to make a selection in the MNF game.

[frankb03]

Bill, this was one of the systems I saw on Dallas posted here at BC last night.

Play Against - Road underdogs vs. the money line (NY GIANTS) - with a poor first half defense - 14 or more points per game, after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game.
(42-3 over the last 10 seasons.) (93.3%, +35.3 units. Rating = 4*)

I wanted to reply to this last night but didn't have the time. This system does't have much merit.

First, Since 1996 my stats have this system at 13-70 SU and 35-47 ATS. More importantly, this same systems with dogs of 3.5 or less 7-7 SU.

At the same time all road dogs of 3.5 or less are 392-585. The system performs poorly in comparison with all road dogs in that line range.

At +6.5 or less that system is 9-15 SU 37.5% All dogs of 6.5 or less 36.9% While it sounded juice it wasn't really offering us any advantage.

I've found that many systems online have inaccurtate records. Also, some when dissected further are useless like the one above.

[BillMill71]

Frank

both systems perfect play on a homefav of 7 or less off homefav win as a 10 or more pt fav last week,and won by 21 or more, the momentum builder is 10-0 su-ats s-89, then play on mnf home fav off a home win vs an opp off a win if the total is 40 or more, also 10-0 su-ats s-89, and avg win score 26-10 at a 1-8-1 under clip. also for thos interested in further total play consider mn div homers totoal 45 or more are 17-4-1 under. 5 units dallas. bol gc-
This is the one I was looking for more information on. I liked the Giants last night due to OL versus DL on both sides. I felt the Giants had a huge advantage here. I started to see this and other systems showing the Cowboys as the play and stayed away

[frankb03]

both systems perfect play on a homefav of 7 or less off homefav win as a 10 or more pt fav last week,and won by 21 or more, the momentum builder is 10-0 su-ats s-89, then play on mnf home fav off a home win vs an opp off a win if the total is 40 or more, also 10-0 su-ats s-89, and avg win score 26-10 at a 1-8-1 under clip. also for thos interested in further total play consider mn div homers totoal 45 or more are 17-4-1 under. 5 units dallas. bol gc-

Those were posted by GoldenContender. As I stated in post #22 I don't like 10-0 type systems. I like systems with lots of activity and lots of history.

I had two systems on Dallas. One was 43-23 65.% Sixty-five plays at 65% is good. What I don't like about this system prior to last night it's 4-9 the past 2+ seasons.

My other system on Dallas was 42-21. These type of systems are not strong enough for me to make a play. However, if I have other systems on Dallas then these systems would strengthen a play on Dallas.

This past Sunday I had many systems on both Atlanta and Oakland. I bet and took both those teams in the capper contest. I did not bet Dallas last night.

[BillMill71]

Any other feedback??

So far a few folks have provided:

Long Term and Large sample size systems
Trends
Weather
Defense - Good Defense over a good offense
Fading the public
Weekly Team research - revenge, practice, bye week, etc.
Luck

[KazDog]

Good work Bill. You'd make a great page boy in the White House....I heard President Frank is in the market for one!

Seriously, good info so far...KAZ

[frankb03]

So far a few folks have provided:

Long Term and Large sample size systems
Trends
Weather
Defense - Good Defense over a good offense
Fading the public
Weekly Team research - revenge, practice, bye week, etc.
Luck

Bill, you live on LI? Where?

I grew up in Franklin Square. Move to Deer Park for a few years before relocating to Florida.

[BillMill71]

Bill, you live on LI? Where?

I grew up in Franklin Square. Move to Deer Park for a few years before relocating to Florida.

Bayshore, or what they like to call Brightwaters Farms. Grew up in South Huntington (or what used to be called Huntington Station). Almost relocated to Florida (Coral Springs) a few years back

[frankb03]

Bayshore, or what they like to call Brightwaters Farms. Grew up in South Huntington (or what used to be called Huntington Station). Almost relocated to Florida (Coral Springs) a few years back

My ex grew up in Huntington, born and raised. Graduated from Huntington High in 1984. I worked in Huntington in the late 80s. Just north of 25A on New York Ave.