NFL Capping Discussion

[BillMill71]

After another push weekend in the NFL going 3-3, I wanted to take a look at how I am handicapping all my games. While doing this I thought why not start a USEFUL thread discussing on the board about factors we all use to handicap the NFL. We all go at this differently. Some folks have systems (not looking for you to expose them here), some folks use databases or their own rating systems, some folks through darts, but we all get to a pick some how.

So to look at the base items we can assume we all look at in some detail let’s lay those out. These are things I assume all capper at least know (may not use all or may use them differently) when capping the NFL:

- Spread
- Home Team and Visiting Team
- Current Records
- Rankings (both offensive and defensive)
- Averages and Production (points, yards, etc. both offensive and defensive)
- Trends (historical team/coach/etc., current, home/away, etc.)
- Line Movement (opening versus current, public betting %, etc.)
- Injuries
- Weather
- Possible rating systems (i.e. Dunkel, Scoresandodds, etc.)
- Possible poster plays
- OTHERS

So now knowing all these things, or not, some people may use some or all of the above, some may not. That being said what are some of the other tools we all use to cap the NFL.

To start off one of the things I utilize when looking at a game is the match-up between Offensive and Defensive lines for the teams playing looking to see if there is an advantage, as I truly feel controlling the line of scrimmage is all important in the NFL.

The next thing I look at is the strength of a teams CB. In the current NFL with the schemes teams run defensively from Cover 2 to Cover 3, to blitz packages, etc. Those CB are left on an island many times during a game.

These two items, plus other, plus the baseline items above, drive some of my capping, although recently have felt a little analysis paralysis. So if any one has some real feedback on this would love to hear. Odds are this thread will turn to shit in less then an hour, but figured I would give it a shot. Good Luck

[MRhotPICKS]

Well I do not have a particular system used to cap games as I have stated in the past...but this is how I come up with plays..

1. Weather - I remember the windy ass day in Chicago last year that the under was golden on... days like that where wind wreaks havoc are easy under days... days with beautiful weather like Miami this past weekend are easy over plays...

2. Defense vs Offense - I would much rather take a good defense especially at home rather than a good offense...

3. Luck - I usually tend to play my games on a day during the week where I am having a good day and everything seems to be going my way... now when I am having a bad week, I tend to rely on what others do... thanks to the greats on here posting plays, I have been able to turn a bad week around many a time and I thank you all...

When you think about it no matter how much capping you do, its always going to be a 50/50 chance of winning... 2 teams, one score, one spread... one team has to cover or you push... I know this does not help, but I am trying to create some type of system which factors in weather, rushing stats, offensive vs defensive line stats, and any injuries... I will test it out when it is done in a week or so... GL all as always!!

[frankb03]

I am a systems capper or as I call it a situation capper. I have dozens of systems. Each week a run all my systems. In most cases I eliminate games where I have conflicting systems.

Next, I concentrate on the teams that my systems spit out. I look at those games closer. I fine tune my systems. How's the system do with home dog, home team off a loss, a win etc. I try to discredit or strenghten the system.

As an example. In week 6 I had a one of my best systems on Buffalo vs. Detroit. Upon disecting the system I found Buffalo was in a situation that only covered 40% within the system in about 40 plays. That was strong enough for me to pass on Buffalo.

Many cappers don't like system capping. IMO all cappers use situation capping without realizing. How many times have we said "let down", "look ahead", "sandwich game", "tough spot". Those are all situations or systems.

Team trends. I put ZERO credibility in team trends. In the NFL today team personal changes drastically from year to year. How much does today's game have to do with games the team played 3 or 4 years ago? The only team trend that matters is current year. With those there's not enough games in a year to solidify a solid team trend.

In the NFL I prefer the underdog. In the past 15+ years the dog has covered more than 51% of the games. Prior to the 2005 season dogs almost covered almost 52% of the games. Playing at Pinnacle 51% is profitable. Why give away an edge?

I don't buy points. Buying points is to the house's advantage. Yesterday, I liked the Jets. I did not want to lay 3.5 points. Now with the Jets propensity to let teams come back against them. Instead of buying the half point I passed on the game. There's other games to play. Don't force a game.

[BillMill71]

Frank Reply

Frank thanks for the reply, and I agree, we are all system/situational cappers whether we think so or not.

Help me understand though, I agree about your post on trends, with how the NFL has now become due to FA, salary cap, etc. Trends seem to mean less, unless you may have a coach in a long term situation. By this I mean by example the NY Jets trends under Herm Edwards no longer apply under Mangini.

But my question is this, long term systems versus trends. How do you have one without the other, sort of the chicken/egg question for me. Once again not looking for you to expose your system, but how do you build systems without long term trends. If you only use in season stats, when does your system prove move profitable, after week 4, week 6, etc.

Also in another thread I believe you indicated that you do not use public betting percentage. As a system capper, who leans on underdog winning % and other things, how do you not look at this.

Thanks in advance for your response

[TheRook]

I have a quarter and a dart board.

[TheRook]

ok...I"m sorry...I had to say that. Now I'll get serious.

I am a very very big believer of trends and systems.

I don't take account the weather too too much unless its a warm weather team heading into cold. Rain and snow I think are very very overrated...but obviously wind is not.

Stats are my life....I look at them very very closely.

I'm intrigued with the responses.

[BillMill71]

Rook Reply

I have a quarter and a dart board.

And you thought I thought any differently???

[BillMill71]

I'm intrigued with the responses.

I am as well, but not sure how much feedback will occur

[TheRook]

And you thought I thought any differently???

[TheRook]

I am as well, but not sure how much feedback will occur

I don't know why not...this forum is here for everyone to help each other make money.

I'm sure that everyone has a different way of doing things, and we could all learn something new.

At least I'd hope we're all here to help.

[jcindaville]

Good thread Bill, I dont consider myself to be much of a great capper, but when i do get on a roll alot of it is from a gut feeling, or fading joe public. Just like last week with Arizona and the Bears, i loved how the public loved the Bears, thats when i make my most money

[moondog22]

in tennis I use among other things type of surface,in door,out door,weather naturally for out doors.

[frankb03]

Also in another thread I believe you indicated that you do not use public betting percentage. As a system capper, who leans on underdog winning % and other things, how do you not look at this.

I don't look at public betting patterns or line movement at all. I don't care. The public doesn't lose every bet. IMO in the long run public opinion wins 50% At 50% there's no advantage for the bettor.

When I run my systems and cap the game I don't like any outside influence. I try to remain open minded and unbiased. I truly believe sometimes too much knowledge is a detriment. Last Sunday, I liked Minny over Seattle. I didn't have the balls to pull the trigger on Minny because I know Seattle is tough at home. It was poor capping. While Seattle is tough at home they don't cover every game at home. We all know there's a huge difference between winning the game and covering.

[BillMill71]

I don't look at public betting patterns or line movement at all. I don't care. The public doesn't lose every bet. IMO in the long run public opinion wins 50% At 50% there's no advantage for the bettor.

When I run my systems and cap the game I don't like any outside influence. I try to remain open minded and unbiased. I truly believe sometimes too much knowledge is a detriment. Last Sunday, I liked Minny over Seattle. I didn't have the balls to pull the trigger on Minny because I know Seattle is tough at home. It was poor capping. While Seattle is tough at home they don't cover every game at home. We all know there's a huge difference between winning the game and covering.

Frank, I want to thank you for taking the time to answer this, thanks

[KazDog]

Frank, I want to thank you for taking the time to answer this, thanks

Who the fuck is Frank? President Bush???

Just kidding man ....Frank is a genius. Did you know he used to sing backup for the Sugar Hill Gang? Swear to God.


I personally don't use systems. I try something completely foreign to many these days. Plain ol' reading. I read the stories from the team pages and check on things like revenge and weather and who is injured and who had a good practice during the bye week. It doesn't work all the time, but I've been pretty successful here with my big plays.....

KAZ