Cnotes 2020-2021 nba trends, news, best bets and opinions thru the playoffs !

[StarDust Bum]

THURSDAY, JULY 8
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

MIL at PHO 09:00 PM
PHO -4.5
O 220.5
+500 +500

[StarDust Bum]

nba championship best bet record:


Game 2 - 07/08/2021....... 2-0-0...100.00%........+10.00
game 1 - 07/06/2021....... 0-2-0.......0.00%.........-11.00

totals............................2-2-0,,,,,,50.00%..........-1.00

[Udog]

Saturday’s 6-pack
— Braves 5, Marlins 0— Morton threw 7 shutout innings.
— Mets 13, Pirates 4— Villar hit pair of home runs.
— White Sox 12, Orioles 1— Engel knocked in four runs.
— Indians 2, Royals 1— Bradley hit a walk-off homer.
— Red Sox 11, Phillies 5— Martinez knocked in four runs.
— Mariners 7, Angels 3— Haniger hit a grand slam in the 8th. .

Quote of the Day
“What I’ll say is the energy in the ballpark was fantastic and I really liked the choice of music throughout the game.”
Giants manager Gabe Kapler, when asked about the new uniforms his team wore Friday

Saturday’s quiz
Who managed the Oakland A’s the first time they won the World Series?

Friday’s quiz
Paul Westphal was coach of the Phoenix Suns, last time they played in NBA Finals.

Thursday’s quiz
Before this year, Pittsburgh Penguins were NHL team was last to repeat as Stanley Cup champs.



Saturday’s Den: Mountain West football trends…….

Air Force:
— HC Calhoun is 44-52-1 ATS as favorite, 34-26-2 as underdog.
— Last four years, Air Force is 7-3-1 ATS as road underdog.
— Since 2014, Falcons are 21-8-1 ATS out of conference.
— Since 2013, Air Force is 13-29-1 ATS coming off a loss.

Boise State:
— Last 3 years, Boise is 16-8 ATS in conference games.
— Over last decade, Broncos are 6-3 ATS as road underdogs.
— Last five years, Boise is 3-6 ATS coming off a loss.
— 2017-18, Boise was +24 in turnovers; last two years, they were minus-4.

Colorado State:
— Rams’ last bowl was 2017; last bowl win, 2013.
— Rams haven’t been better than 7-6 since McElwain left after 2014 season.
— HC Addazio is 38-25-2 ATS as an underdog.
— State is 3-7 ATS in last ten games as a road underdog.

Fresno State:
— 2017-18, Fresno was 22-6; last two years, they were 7-11.
— Since 2013, Bulldogs are 13-7-3 ATS as road favorites.
— Last four years, Bulldogs are +24 in turnovers.
— QB Haener transferred to Fresno from Washington.

Hawai’i:
— Todd Graham went 5-4 in his first year here LY, won a bowl.
— Since 2014, Rainbows are 6-20-1 ATS as home favorites.
— Over last decade, Hawaii is 2-6 ATS as a road favorite.
— Underdogs covered their last five bowl games.

Nevada:
— Under Norvell, Nevada is 15-7 ATS at home, 8-12 on road.
— Wolf Pack won 3 of last 4 bowls; they weren’t favored in any of them.
— Last five years, Nevada is 8-12 ATS as a road underdog.
— Last four years, Wolf Pack is 19-13 ATS in conference tilts.

UNLV:
— Last ten years, UNLV is 33-84 SU- they were 0-6 LY.
— Rebels’ last bowl was 2013; their last bowl win, 2000.
— Last five years, UNLV is 5-10 ATS as a home favorite.
— This year’s over/under win total is 1.5; not lot of optimism there.

New Mexico:
— Last four years, Lobos are minus-31 in turnovers (10-33).
— Last six years, New Mexico is 3-14 ATS as a home favorite.
— Lobos’ last bowl outside of New Mexico was in 2004.
— Veteran HC Rocky Long is in his 2nd year as Lobos’ DC.

San Diego State:
— They’re playing home games 113 miles from their campus.
— Aztecs are 6-13 ATS in last 19 games as a home favorite.
— Last six years, San Diego State is +61 in turnovers.
— 65 returning starts on OL and a new QB; they’ll run ball more this year.

San Jose State:
— Spartans went 7-1 LY; previous six years, they were 21-53.
— Under Brennan, San Jose is 27-17-1 ATS.
— In 2017, Spartans were minus-26 in turnovers; since then, they’re +13.
— QB Starkel played previously at Texas A&M/Arkansas.

Utah State:
— New HC Anderson made 6 bowls (2-4) in 7 years at Arkansas State.
— Since 2013, Aggies are 3-10 ATS as a home underdog.
— Utah State lost 3 of last 4 bowls; they were favored in all four.
— Junior QB Bonner (15 starts) transferred to Utah State from Arkansas State.

Wyoming:
— Last five years, Wyoming is 10-4 ATS as home favorites.
— Last three years, Cowboys are 3-6 ATS as road underdogs.
— Wyoming won its last two bowls, covered four of last five.
— Cowboys have 21 of 22 starters back this season.

[Udog]

[Udog]

Sunday’s 6-pack
Week 2 NFL spreads
— Atlanta @ Tampa Bay (-7.5)
— Minnesota @ Arizona (-1.5)
— Dallas @ LA Chargers (-1.5)
— Tennessee @ Seattle (-4.5)
— Kansas City (-2) @ Baltimore
— Detroit @ Green Bay (-7.5)

Quote of the Day
“In a way, I’m kind of glad it happened. That means nothing if we don’t learn from it. It could be the most important thing in this tournament for us.”
Gregg Popovich, on losing to Nigeria.
I call BS on his saying he’s glad it happened.

Sunday’s quiz
2004 was the last time the Americans didn’t win the Olympic gold medal in basketball- they won a bronze medal; what country won the gold medal that year?

Saturday’s quiz
Dick Williams managed the Oakland A’s the first two times they won the World Series.

Friday’s quiz
Paul Westphal was coach of the Phoenix Suns, last time they played in NBA Finals.

**************************************

Sunday’s Den: Wrapping up a sports Saturday

13) Starting today with a recommendation of a fun place to go in the Albany area:

— Do you like to play golf?
— The Bunker in Guilderland is a golf simulator, where you can play lot of famous courses around the country.
— Hit a shot and it gives you club head speed, distance, lot of stats.
— There is even a mulligan button, if you hit a bad shot.
— There is a bar, you can order out food, comfortable places to sit/hang out.
— Was there Friday night with group of friends; excellent place to have fun.
— 2390 Western Avenue, just east of Western Turnpike golf course.

12) Braves 5, Marlins 4— Very costly win; Ronald Acuna tore his ACL, is out for year.

11) New York 1, Houston 0:
— Gerrit Cole threw 129-pitch complete game, most pitches thrown in a game this year.

— Aaron Boone came to mound to take him out with one out to go and Jordan Alvarez uo, but you could see Cole vehemently refusing to come out.
— Houston lost its last three games, scoring one run.

10) Nigeria 90, USA 87:
— 9 years ago, the Americans beat Nigeria by 83 points in the Olympics.
— In this game, Nigeria never trailed in the 4th quarter.
— Americans were favored by 28.5 points; yes, people bet on this stuff.

9) Lot of guys are dropping out of next week’s All-Star Game:
— All four Astros (read into that what you like)
— Mookie Betts
— Yadier Molina

There will be at least 40 first-time All-Stars in next week’s game.

8) There are only two divisional games in Week 1 of NFL in September:

Jaguars-Texans and Dolphins-Patriots.

7) San Diego Padres are rolling along at 53-38, in line for a Wild Card slot, but much of their success has happened late in games.

If games were only five innings long, San Diego’s record would be 35-41-15, so they’ve improved by 10.5 games after the 5th inning. Clutch hitting, good bullpen.

6) Biggest point spread in NFL history? In 1976, Steelers were -27 over the expansion Buccaneers- they whacked them 42-0. Tampa Bay went 0-14 that first season, then started the next season 0-12 before winning their last two games.

Only two years after that, Tampa Bay played in the NFC Championship game, and would’ve played those same Steelers in the Super Bowl had they won that game.

5) Joey Votto is 37 years old, on the tail end of an excellent career, but the Reds owe him $45M over the next two seasons. If MLB gets smart and puts the universal DH in next year, then he will still be useful, but if not, that contract could be an albatross.

Would the Reds trade Votto this month, to get rid of that $45M commitment?

4) Obscure NBA record; most points scored off the bench in an NBA Finals game is 31,
scored by Sam Cassell for the ’95 Rockets against Orlando.

3) Since 2001, longest streaks of consecutive games reaching base:
63— Orlando Cabrera
57— Barry Bonds
56— Ryan Klesko

All-time record is 84, set by Ted Williams in 1949. Very underrated record.

2) Guys who own the Dodgers now also own 27% of the Lakers. Must be fun to be really, really rich.

1) If the baseball playoffs started today (they don’t):
NL: Mets, Brewers, Giants. Wild Card: San Diego @ Los Angeles
AL: Red Sox, White Sox, Astros. Wild Card: Oakland @ Tampa Bay

[Udog]

505PHOENIX -506 MILWAUKEE
PHOENIX is 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) vs. dominant rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 5+ per game in the current season.




NBA
Dunkel

Sunday, July 11






NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Sunday, July 11

Phoenix @ Milwaukee
Suns (lead series 2-0)
— Phoenix won 17 of its last 21 games.
— Suns are 6-2 ATS in home playoff games.
— You’re reading ***************.com
— Phoenix was held to 102-95-92-102 points in its four playoff losses.
— Suns are in playoffs for first time in a decade.
— Suns made 20 of 40 3-pointers in last game.
— Last four Phoenix games went over the total.

Bucks
— Bucks lost three of their last five games SU.
— Milwaukee is 5-2-1 ATS in home playoff games.
— Antetokounmpo scored 42 points in Game 2; Bucks were minus-13 in 8:00 he sat out.
— You’re reading ***************.com
— Over is 4-0 in last four Milwaukee games.
— Milwaukee was 9-31 on arc in Game 2, Suns 20-40.
— Starters other than Antetokounmpo were 19-52 from floor in Game 2.

— Bucks were last in Finals in 1974, Suns in 1976.
— Suns are 4-0 vs Milwaukee this year, winning by 1-1-13-10 points.
— Suns are 3-1 ATS in last four visits to Milwaukee.
— Last six series games went over the total.




NBA

Sunday, July 11
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Trend Report

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Phoenix @ Milwaukee
Phoenix
Phoenix is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Milwaukee
Phoenix is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Milwaukee
Milwaukee
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Milwaukee's last 5 games when playing Phoenix
Milwaukee is 15-1 SU in its last 16 games at home


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[Udog]

[StarDust Bum]

SUNDAY, JULY 11
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

PHO at MIL 08:00 PM
PHO +4.0
O 222.0
+500 +500

[StarDust Bum]

nba championship best bet record:

Game 3 - 07/11/2021....... 0-2-0.....33.33%........-11.00
game 2 - 07/08/2021....... 2-0-0...100.00%........+10.00
game 1 - 07/06/2021....... 0-2-0.......0.00%.........-11.00

totals............................2-4-0,,,,,,50.00%..........-12.00

[Udog]

Tuesday’s 6-pack
Odds to win the British Open:
9-1— Jon Rahm
16-1— Brooks Koepka, Rory McIlroy
18-1— Johnson, Thomas, Schauffele
20-1— Jordan Spieth
25-1— Victor Hovland
30-1— DeChambeau, Morikawa, Oosthuizen

Quote of the Day
“I’ll never forget lining up for a play and Philip Rivers pointing to one of our LB’s and telling him he was lined up wrong based off the blitz we were about to run and being 100% correct haha.”
JJ Watt

Tuesday’s quiz
Who won the first Home Run Derby, back in 1985?

Monday’s quiz
In 2002, the A’s won 20 games in a row; their 20th win came against the Royals.

Sunday’s quiz
2004 was the last time the Americans didn’t win the Olympic gold medal in basketball- they won a bronze medal; Argentina won the gold medal that year.

*************************************

Tuesday’s Den: Nobody asked me, but………

13) This week is all about Shohei Ohtani and MLB’s obsession with promoting the guy, which is their business, I guess. Hopefully Ohtani’s people (and the Angels) are making sure he doesn’t get overextended or hurt. He is doing some unique things, but he is still human and needs to take care of himself.

Ohtani is batting leadoff and is starting pitcher in the All-Star Game. Here are his pitching stats for this year:
Ohtani: 4-1, 3.49 in 13 starts.
Kyle Gibson of Texas: 6-1, 2.29 in 17 starts

Maybe Kyle Gibson should be starting pitcher; I understand that no one outside of Arlington gives a rat’s ass about Gibson— he is 33, has been in the majors for nine years but he’s earned the right to start this All-Star Game, a big honor.

Plus, if Ohtani pitched in relief, casual fans might stick with the game a little longer, until Ohtani gets in. Lot of casual fans will change the channel as soon as he is done pitching.

12) MLB needs to promote its product better, the actual games, not just individuals; the last four Sunday nights, there have been only three games on ESPN and two of those were 7-inning games because they were parts of doubleheaders created by rainouts.

All Sunday night games should be 9 innings, no matter what.

11) The MLB amateur draft isn’t as fun as NFL/NBA drafts because we know so much less about the players being drafted. It is also more of a crapshoot; back in 1983, Roger Clemens was the 19th player taken in the draft, the 11th pitcher.

Whoops.

10) Teams with best record in games where winning run scored in last 3 innings:
22-8— Cincinnati
19-8— Seattle
17-10— Oakland
15-9— Boston
17-11— NY Mets

9) Teams with worst record in games where winning run scored in last 3 innings:
8-23— Arizona
8-19— Atlanta
9-17— Toronto
11-19— Texas
8-15— Baltimore, White Sox

8) There is a good website, umpscorecards.com that shows accuracy, consistency for the home plate umpire for every game.

Milwaukee beat the Reds 5-3 in a game Thursday; the home plate umpire Brian O’Nora had a rough night, missing 16% of pitches on the outside corner. Reds players were yelling at him as he left the field; ump scorecards had him 87% accurate overall— the average is 94% accurate.

7) From Juston Ray: Padraig Harrington won the British Open in 2007 and 2008. Since then, no Open champ finished in the top-25 at The Open the year before their win.

Cink – Cut
Oosthuizen- Cut
Clarke – T44
Els – Cut
Mickelson – Cut
McIlroy – Cut
Zach Johnson – T47
Stenson – T40
Spieth – T30
Molinari – Cut
Lowry – Cut

6) Only one golfer finished in the top 10 at the British Open in both 2018/2019:

Tony Finau

5) From Jason Logan on Twitter:
NBA playoff betting stats:
— favorites 48-34 ATS
— favorites of 3 or fewer points 13-13
— favored from 3.5-6 points 25-8 ATS
— favored of 6.5+ points 10-13
— Road favorites 15-10 ATS
— Teams off a loss 31-36 ATS

3) Phillies’ rookie reliever Damon Jones is the grandson of former NBA player Darrall Imhoff. Jones has yet to make his MLB debut, but is with the Phillies.

Darrall Imhoff scored over 5,700 points in his 12-year NBA career, and was once part of the package the Lakers sent to Philadelphia when they acquired Wilt Chamberlain in 1968.

2) Major league leaders in RBI from 7th inning on:
29— Mitch Haniger, Seattle
28— Eduardo Escobar, Arizona

1) John Wooden didn’t win a national title until his 16th year at UCLA, but then he won 10 of them in 12 years; sometimes it takes a while to become an overnight success.

[Udog]

[Udog]

507PHOENIX -508 MILWAUKEE
PHOENIX is 12-2 ATS (9.8 Units) versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game - 2nd half of the season in the current season.




NBA
Dunkel

Wednesday, July 14






NBA

Wednesday, July 14
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Trend Report

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Phoenix @ Milwaukee
Phoenix
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Phoenix's last 7 games when playing Milwaukee
Phoenix is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Milwaukee
Milwaukee
Milwaukee is 16-1 SU in its last 17 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Milwaukee's last 7 games when playing Phoenix


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[Udog]

bump

[Udog]

NBA
Armadillo's Write-up

Wednesday, July 14

Phoenix @ Milwaukee
Suns (lead series 2-1)
— Phoenix won 17 of its last 22 games.
— Suns are 6-3 ATS in road playoff games.
— You’re reading ***************.com
— Phoenix was held to 102-95-92-102-100 points in its playoff losses.
— Suns are in playoffs for first time in a decade.
— Suns made 20 of 40 3-pointers in Game 2, 9-31 in Game 3.
— Booker was only 3-14 from floor in Game 3.
— Over is 4-0-1 in last five Phoenix games.

Bucks
— Bucks split their last six games SU.
— Milwaukee is 6-2-1 ATS in home playoff games.
— Antetokounmpo scored 83 points in last two games.
— Last two games, Bucks are +21 with Giannis on court, -11 with him on bench.
— You’re reading ***************.com
— Over is 4-0-1 in last five Milwaukee games.
— Milwaukee was 9-31 on arc in Game 2, 14-36 in Game 3.
— Starters other than Antetokounmpo were 19-52 in Game 2, 21-42 in Game 3.

— Bucks were last in Finals in 1974, Suns in 1976.
— Suns are 4-1 vs Milwaukee this year, winning by 1-1-13-10 points.
— Suns are 3-2 ATS in last five visits to Milwaukee.
— Over is 6-0-1 in last seven games between these teams.
— Home side won all three games in this series, all decided by 10+ points.

[Udog]