The Bum's NBA Playoff Trends,News,Picks !

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Friday's six-pack

Odds to win the college hoop national title next April:
10-1— Gonzaga
12-1— Baylor
14-1— Villanova
16-1— Kentucky
18-1— Virginia
20-1— Duke, Texas Tech

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 206,005
Please wear a mask when you go out.


**********

Armadillo: Friday's Den: Wrapping up a busy Thursday

13) From James Logan: This week’s NFL games come with an average over/under of 49.9 points; since 2006, that would be the highest average over/under for any NFL weekend.
48.7- Week 11, 2018
48.2- Week 3, 2020
48.0- Week 10, 2018
47.8- Week 8, 2018
47.7- Week 9, 2018
47.3- Week 5, 2018
47.3- Week 7, 2018
47.1- Week 13, 2018
46.9- Week 11, 2014
46.8- Week 2, 2019

Ironic thing is that in those ten weeks, under wound up going 85-59-1 (59%)

12) Penalties per game are down about 1.5 flags per game over the previous four years; holding calls are down roughly 40%. Another reason for more scoring, higher totals.

11) Reader named Greg sent me this stat Thursday morning: over last 33 NFL games, if you bet first half totals, over is now 26-7, 16-1 in the last 17 games played.

Good weather is part of it, but is it easier to run an offense with no crowd noise? Fair question.

10) A’s 6, White Sox 4 (Oakland wins series 2-1)
— 17 pitchers were used in this game; none of them got more than six outs.
— Chicago led 3-0 after third inning.
— A’s win their first playoff series since 2006.
— For season, White Sox wound up 15-0 vs lefty starters, 23-27 vs righties.
— Tim Anderson had nine hits in three games for Chicago.

9) Braves 5, Reds 0 (Atlanta wins series 2-0):
— Cincinnati scored zero runs in 22 innings in this series. Zero. None. Bupkis.
— Rookie Anderson threw six shutout innings for Atlanta.
— Ozuna, Duvall both homered in a 4-run 8th inning.

8) Padres 11, Cardinals 9 (series 1-1):
— St Louis led 4-2 after five innings, before the Padres’ bats exploded.
— Fernando Tatis homered twice, knocked in five runs.
— 17 pitchers were used in this game, too.

7) Dodgers 3, Brewers 0 (LA wins series 2-0)
— Kershaw threw eight shutout innings, struck out 13.
— Milwaukee had a guy picked off first when they were down 3-0 in 8th inning; no bueno.
— At no point this season were the Brewers ever over .500.

6) Sunday’s Steeler-Titans game was postponed until later this season, after more Tennessee players tested positive for COVID.

5) Marlins’ OF Starling Marte broke his pinkie Wednesday; he can still pinch-run or play the field, but he can’t swing a bat for a while.

4) Philadelphia 76ers acted quickly, named Doc Rivers their new head coach.

3) Week or so ago, New York catcher Gary Sanchez was called for catcher’s interference three times in a 5-game stretch; he is the first major league catcher to do that since Vic Roznovsky of the Cubs, on September 28-29, 1965.

2) Philadelphia Eagles have been outscored 49-16 in second half of games this year.

1) Denver 37, NJ Jets 28:
— McManus drilled a 52-yard FG with 3:08 left for the win.
— Rookie QB Rypien was 19-31/242 in his first NFL start, but he did throw three INT’s.
— AFC West teams are 7-3-1 ATS outside their division.

— Jets had six personal fouls in this game, four in the first half.
— Jets lost their first four games, allowing 32.5 ppg.
— Jets are 6-11-1 ATS in their last 18 home games.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA public betting, line movement for October 2
Patrick Everson

LeBron James and Co. breezed to a 116-98 victory laying 4.5 points in Game 1. FanDuel Sportsbook opened them at -7 for Game 2, which rose quickly to -9.5 amid Miami injury concerns.

NBA betting odds are on the board for Game 2 of the NBA Finals, set for Friday night. The Los Angeles Lakers look to pick up where they left off in Wednesday’s Game 1, aiming to take firm control of this championship series against the Miami Heat.

FanDuel Sportsbook provided insights on NBA Finals opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting for Friday’s matchup, along with odds to win the NBA championship.

NBA line movement

Miami entered Game 1 with a 12-3 SU and ATS record in this year’s playoffs, then sprinted out to an early double-digit lead in the opener against Los Angeles. But it was all Lakers the rest of the way, as LeBron James and Co. breezed to a 116-98 victory laying 4.5 points.

That led FanDuel to install Los Angeles as 7-point favorites for Game 2, and the line was already up to Lakers -9.5 by Thursday afternoon. Part of that is surely bettors’ reaction to Game 1, but the Heat are also banged up: Goran Dragic (foot) is doubtful for Game 2, while Jimmy Butler (ankle) and Bam Adebayo (shoulder) are questionable.

The total opened at 216 and moved to 216.5 Thursday afternoon.

NBA public betting

Bettors were buying the Lakers early and often at FanDuel, with 84 percent of tickets and 95 percent of dollars wagered landing on Los Angeles, through Thursday afternoon. On the total, ticket count is two-way, with the Over at 54 percent, but money is running 81 percent on the Over.

[StarDust Bum]

703MIAMI -704 LA LAKERS
LA LAKERS are 42-25 ATS (14.5 Units) in road games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game in the last 3 seasons.




NBA
Dunkel

Friday, October 2

Miami @ LA Lakers

Game 703-704
October 2, 2020 @ 9:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Miami
124.750
LA Lakers
126.632
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Lakers
by 2
213
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Lakers
by 7 1/2
216
Dunkel Pick:
Miami
(+7 1/2); Under




NBA
Long Sheet

Friday, October 2

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MIAMI (56 - 33) vs. LA LAKERS (65 - 22) - 10/2/2020, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) in road games in non-conference games this season.
LA LAKERS are 40-32 ATS (+4.8 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
MIAMI is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in all playoff games this season.
MIAMI is 47-31 ATS (+12.9 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
LA LAKERS are 19-36 ATS (-20.6 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA LAKERS is 4-3 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
LA LAKERS is 6-1 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
5 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




NBA

Friday, October 2

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Miami @ LA Lakers
Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Miami's last 11 games when playing on the road against LA Lakers
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 6 games when playing LA Lakers
LA Lakers
LA Lakers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
LA Lakers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Miami

[StarDust Bum]

Game 2 Odds: Heat vs. Lakers
Michael Crosson

Now just three wins away from securing his first ever championship ring, Anthony Davis and the Los Angeles Lakers will square off for Game 2 of the NBA Finals against Jimmy Butler and the Miami Heat at the HP Field House in Disney’s Wide World of Sports complex in Orlando.

Betting Resources

Matchup: NBA Finals Game 2
Series: Lakers lead 1-0
Venue: ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex
Location: Orlando, Florida
Date: Friday, Oct. 2, 2020
Time: 9:00 p.m. ET
TV: ABC

The Lakers blasted the Heat 116-98 in Game 1 of the NBA Finals, dominating the game in wire-to-wire fashion. (AP)

Line Movements

Following their 116-98 rout of Eric Spoelstra’s team in Game 1, the Lakers are getting a slight bump on the spread heading into the second contest of this series – setting the line for Friday night’s tilt at Los Angeles -7.5.

‘Under’ bettors were the victors in the first game of these NBA Finals as Miami and Los Angeles combined for just 214 points on Wednesday night. The ‘over-under’ for Game 2 sits in the same ballpark as Game 1’s final total – OU 216.

Spread: Los Angeles -8
Money-Line: Los Angeles -360 Miami +285
Total: 216
Updated Series Price: Los Angeles -1200, Miami +750

Game 1 Recap

The Heat jumped out to an early lead in the opening stanza of Wednesday night’s contest, but that was short lived as the Lakers were able to secure a 31-28 lead before the final horn of the period, and never looked back.

The first game of these Finals was pretty much over at halftime, as the Lakers set a franchise record for most 3-point field goals made in the first half of a post-season contest by drilling 11 longballs in the opening two stanzas of Wednesday’s matchup, and gained a 65-48 lead at the break.

Miami started the game sitting back in a 2-3 zone similarly to how they prepared for Boston, daring Los Angeles to beat them from deep, but Frank Vogel’s team executed a drive-and-kick game plan flawlessly in Game 1 as his team scored a combined 70 points on Wednesday night from strictly 3-point land and the foul line.

Bam Adebayo was expected to give Davis some trouble down low on the defensive side of the ball, but that was far from the case in Game 1, as Bam exited the game with a neck injury, leaving Davis to dominate the contest with 34 points, 9 rebounds, 5 assists, and 3 blocks over 38 minutes in the Lakers’ win.

Game 1 Betting Results

Outcome: Lakers 116 Heat 98

After watching the Heat jump out to a 28-18 first quarter lead on the Lakers with three minutes remaining, Los Angeles closed on a 13-0 run and that effort not only helped the "Purple and Gold" carry the momentum into the final three quarters.

The Lakers covered for bettors in the first quarter, first-half and the game, plus they picked up a second-half ticket as a short 'dog too. The Heat's inabilty to score in the second and third quarters (39 combined points) hurt bettors who took the 'over' in the first-half and the second-half too.

Game: Lakers Win, Lakers Cover (-4.5), Under 217.5
First Quarter: Lakers Win (31-28), Lakers Cover (-2), Over 56
First-Half: Lakers Win (63-48), Lakers Cover (-3), Under 111.5
Second-Half: Lakers Win (51-50), Lakers Cover (+2.5), Under 105.5

Miami Betting Outlook

Inside the Stats

Bubble: 15-9 SU, 15-9 ATS, 12-11-1 O/U
Playoffs: 12-4 SU, 12-4 ATS, 8-8 O/U

Miami got blown out in the first game of this series, but if you have paid attention to the Heat this season, then you know this is one of the most resilient bunches in the NBA and they are going to come back re-energized, with a brand new scheme to attack the Lakers with on Friday night.

The Heat will likely be without Adebayo in this game, so even if the zone concept worked in Game 1, they would likely have to switch up their defensive strategy after losing the heartbeat of their defense.

Although his team did not show up, Jimmy Buckets was still great for the Heat on Wednesday night – Butler going for 23 points and 5 assists on 61% shooting for the game. He may need to take matters into his own hands in Game 2 considering the names listed on Friday’s injury report if Miami wants a chance at evening up this series.

Los Angeles Betting Outlook

Inside the Stats

Bubble: 16-8 SU, 11-12-1 ATS, 11-13 O/U
Playoffs: 13-3 SU, 10-5-1 ATS, 7-9 O/U

Following Los Angeles’ blowout victory in Game 1 of these NBA Finals, the oddsmakers have shifted the Lakers from -380 favorites, to -1200 favorites heading into the second game of this series.

The Lakers are typically streaky from deep and they still were in this contest, but it was plenty to knock off the Heat in this game once they became ravaged by injury in the early goings of this one.

LeBron James nearly recorded another triple-double to open this year’s Finals by tallying 25 points, 13 rebounds, and 9 assists across 36 minutes in Game 1.

Los Angeles is now 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games and will look to keep that pace going with another win on Friday night.

Key Injuries

Miami

PG Goran Dragic: Foot - Doubtful
PF Bam Adebayo: Shoulder - Doubtful
PF Jimmy Butler: Ankle - Probable

Los Angeles

None

Along with Adebayo’s potential absence, Goran Dragic is listed as a game time decision as well with torn plantar fascia in his last foot. The diagnosis does not necessarily rule him 'out' for Game 2, but the injury commonly gives players discomfort on the court and is something to take note of if the guard suits up on Friday night.

[StarDust Bum]

FRIDAY, OCTOBER 2

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

MIA at LAL 09:00 PM

LAL -10.0

U 216.5

[StarDust Bum]

NBA FINALS RECORD:

ATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

10/02/2020 0-1-1 25.00% -550 Detail

09/30/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail

Totals...............1-2-1........33.33%.....-6.00

[StarDust Bum]

Courtesy is the one coin you can never have too much of or be stingy with.



Armadillo: Sunday's six-pack

NFL leaders in passing yardage:
1,188— Dak Prescott, Dal
1,038— Josh Allen, Buff
961— Matt Ryan, Atl
925— Russell Wilson, Sea
898— Patrick Mahomes, KC
887— Aaron Rodgers, GB

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 208,025
PLEASE wear a mask when you go out.


**********

Armadillo: Sunday's Den: Wrapping up a college football Saturday

13) New England QB Cam Newton tested positive for COVID; Sunday’s game with the Chiefs has been postponed, without a new date being set. One of the Chiefs’ backup QB’s has apparently also tested positive.

12) There is talk that the NFL may push back the start of their playoffs by a week, eliminate the extra week between conference title games and the Super Bowl to create a Week 18 in the regular season which would become a parking lot for some of these postponed games.

11) Iowa State 37, Oklahoma 30:
— Sooners lose consecutive regular season games for first time since 1999.
— Oklahoma scored 65 points in its two D-I games, but allowed 38-37 points.
— Cyclones lost at home to Louisiana, then beat TCU/Oklahoma. Go figure.

10) Arkansas 21, Mississippi State 14:
— MSU QB Costello threw for 623 yards last week; he threw three INT’s here, including a pick-6, as Arkansas ended their 20-game SEC losing streak.

9) Ole Miss 42, Kentucky 41 (OT)
— Very fun game to watch; Kentucky’s kicker missed a PAT in overtime.
— Ole Miss QB Corral threw for 320 yards, ran for 51 more.
— Kentucky led this game 28-14 with 10:00 left in third quarter.

8) Tennessee 35, Missouri 12:
— Volunteers have now won eight games in a row, dating back to last year.

7) Upsets of the Day:
— Tulsa (+20.5) 34, Central Florida 26
— Arkansas (+17) 21, Mississippi State 14
— NC State (+14) 30, Pittsburgh 29
— TCU (+10.5) 33, Texas 31
— Iowa State (+7.5) 37, Oklahoma 30
— Air Force (+7) 40, Navy 7
— Ole Miss (+7) 42, Kentucky 41

6) TCU 33, Texas 31:
— Longhorns fumbled on the TCU 1-yard line with 2:44 left.
— Total yardage was 457-388, TCU
— Penalties: TCU 14-109, Texas 12-92

5) West Virginia 27, Baylor 21 OT:
— WVU survived four turnovers (-2), held Baylor 256 total yards.
— Bears lost their fifth straight visit to Morgantown.

4) Virginia Tech 38, Duke 31:
— Tech ran ball for 324 yards, keeping their depleted defense off the field.
— Hokies were missing their top 8 DB’s, their defensive coordinator, their DB’s coach and 13 other players.

3) NC State 30, Pittsburgh 29:
— Teams combined for 747 passing yards, no turnovers.
— Wolfpack scored the winning TD with 0:23 left.

2) SMU 30, Memphis 27:
— Both teams gained over 500 yards, converted over half their 3rd downs.
— Mustangs threw TD passes of 70-85 yards.
— AAC football is underrated; lot of fun teams to watch.

1) American League playoffs start Monday, in LA/San Diego. National League series start /Tuesday, in Arlington/Houston.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA public betting, line movement for October 4
Patrick Everson

LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers shifted to 8.5-point favorites for Game 3 of the NBA Finals after opening -10 at FanDuel Sportsbook.

NBA betting odds are on the board for Game 3 of the NBA Finals, set for Sunday night. The Los Angeles Lakers are already up 2-0 in the best-of-7 series, so the Miami Heat are pretty much in must-win mode.

Multiple oddsmakers provided insights on NBA Finals opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting for Sunday’s matchup, along with odds to win the NBA championship.

NBA line movement

The Lakers led Game 2 by 14 at halftime and kept the at arm’s length the rest of the way in a 124-114 victory. FanDuel Sportsbook followed by making Los Angeles a 10-point favorite, but that line shifted to -8.5 by Saturday afternoon.

After missing Game 2, Heat forward Bam Adebayo (shoulder) expects to be back for the 7:30 p.m. ET tipoff, likely contributing to a little more optimism from Miami backers. Goran Dragic missed Game 2 with a foot injury, and his status is uncertain for Game 3.

NBA public betting

Game 3 is drawing two-way action at FanDuel, with the Lakers getting 53 percent of tickets and the Heat taking 56 percent of money through Saturday afternoon. The total remained at the opener of 218.5, even though FanDuel was seeing 84 percent of bets and 93 percent of money on the Over.

[StarDust Bum]

705LA LAKERS -706 MIAMI
LA LAKERS are 42-25 ATS (14.5 Units) in road games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game in the last 3 seasons.




NBA
Dunkel

Sunday, October 4

LA Lakers @ Miami

Game 705-706
October 4, 2020 @ 7:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Lakers
127.244
Miami
124.139
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Lakers
by 3
215
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Lakers
by 9 1/2
218 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Miami
(+9 1/2); Under




NBA
Long Sheet

Sunday, October 4

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LA LAKERS (66 - 22) vs. MIAMI (56 - 34) - 10/4/2020, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA LAKERS are 19-36 ATS (-20.6 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in all playoff games this season.
MIAMI is 47-31 ATS (+12.9 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
LA LAKERS are 40-32 ATS (+4.8 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
MIAMI is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) in road games in non-conference games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA LAKERS is 4-3 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
LA LAKERS is 7-1 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
5 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




NBA

Sunday, October 4

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LA Lakers @ Miami
LA Lakers
LA Lakers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Miami
LA Lakers is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games
Miami
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games at home

[StarDust Bum]

Game 3 Odds: Lakers vs. Heat
Michael Crosson

Following an impressive 124-114 victory in Game 2 on Friday evening to earn his first 2-0 lead in 10 NBA Finals appearances, LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers will look to gain a three-game advantage against the Miami Heat in the bubble on Sunday night.

Betting Resources

Matchup: NBA Finals Game 3
Series: Lakers lead 2-0
Venue: ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex
Location: Orlando, Florida
Date: Sunday, Oct. 4, 2020
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
TV: ABC

Jimmy Butler and the Miami Heat will look to avoid a 3-0 deficit when the meet the L.A. Lakers on Sunday. (AP)

Line Movements

The Lakers have now won the first two games of this series by double digits, but the oddsmakers in Las Vegas are projecting Frank Vogel’s team to come up just short of that mark on Sunday evening – setting the spread for Game 3 at Los Angeles -8.5.

‘Over’ tickets cashed in a big way in Game 2, as Los Angeles and Miami combined for 238 points on Sunday night. The oddsmakers have elected to stick to their guns with the ‘over-under’ though – leaving the line at OU 218.5.

Spread: Los Angeles -8.5
Money-Line: Los Angeles -380 Miami +320
Total: 218.5
Updated Series Price: Los Angeles -6000, Miami +1600

Game 2 Recap

The odds were stacked against Erik Spoelstra’s team from the jump on Sunday night, as Miami’s Goran Dragic and Bam Adebayo were both sidelined due to injuries suffered during Game 1.

Even with Bam out of the lineup, the Heat appeared content sitting back in a 2-3 zone and allowing Los Angeles to fire as many longballs off as they pleased in this contest, and the Lakers took what they were given – LAL putting up 47 3-point attempts, compared to Miami’s 27.

Adebayo was also clearly missed in the rebounding department in Miami’s last contest, as the Lakers finished +10 on the offensive boards.

King James and Anthony Davis were both spectacular for a second straight NBA Finals victory for Los Angeles, combining for 65 of their team’s 124 points.

The Lakers appear to be firing on all cylinders right now after winning and covering in back-to-back Finals matchups. They will look to keep it going on Sunday night.

Game 2 Betting Results

Outcome: Lakers 124 Heat 114

The Lakers jumped out to a big lead at halftime but the Heat hung around with a big third quarter and managed to cover as double-digit underdogs.

The offensive units only combined for 52 points in the first quarter but the pair got the 'over' on track for an easy win with 70 and 74 points in the second and third quarter respectively.

Game: Lakers Win, Heat Cover (-10.5), Over 216.5
First Quarter: Lakers Win (29-23), Lakers Cover (-2), Under 54.5
First-Half: Lakers Win (68-54), Lakers Cover (-6), Over 112
Second-Half: Heat Win (60-56), Heat Cover (+1.5), Over 109

Los Angeles Betting Outlook

Inside the Stats

Bubble: 17-8 SU, 11-13-1 ATS, 12-13 O/U
Playoffs: 14-3 SU, 10-6-1 ATS, 8-9 O/U

Los Angeles’ willingness to shoot the longball against Miami’s zone defense has been incredible as they continue to shatter Lakers post-season franchise records for 3-point shot attempts by jacking up 38 more shots from long-range on Friday night.

King James was just short of a triple-double yet again in Game 2, tallying 33 points, 9 rebounds, and 9 assists in the Laker victory – landing himself as the current Finals MVP favorite at -200 odds. AD is right there behind him though (+140), after sporting his second straight 30-point outing on Friday to begin his NBA Finals career.

Los Angeles will look to make it a perfect 3-0 in these NBA Finals on Sunday evening.

Miami Betting Outlook

Inside the Stats

Bubble: 15-10 SU, 16-9 ATS, 13-11-1 O/U
Playoffs: 12-5 SU, 13-4 ATS, 9-8 O/U

The Heat entered this series as hefty underdogs (+300), and things are only getting worse for them as they continue to lose games while nursing their injury woes – currently sitting at +1600 to rally back from a two-game deficit.

The biggest thing for Miami right now is health if they want to compete in this series. Even with Dragic and Adebayo in the lineup, the odds of the Heat knocking off LeBron and company in these finals were slim to none.

Duncan Robinson and Tyler Herro also need to get it going from downtown in this series if the Heat want to swing the momentum back in their direction in Game 3 – the duo is shooting a combined 5 for 21 from three-point land in the series.

Key Injuries

Los Angeles

None

Miami

PF Bam Adebayo: Neck - Questionable
PG Goran Dragic: Foot - Doubtful

Dragic’s status for Game 3 remains foggy, but Adebayo says that he feels good and expects to be in the lineup for the Heat on Sunday night. If Miami wants to make these NBA Finals look like a closely contested series in the slightest, it is critical that Bam is healthy and in the lineup for the Heat. Keep an eye on his status as tipoff approaches.

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Tuesday's six-pack

Payrolls of the eight baseball teams still playing:
— New York $249,788,488
— Los Angeles $222,115,000
— Houston $214,090,057
— Atlanta $158,026,375
— San Diego $151,453,350
— Oakland $95,455,433
— Miami $73,114,200
— Tampa Bay $72,489,233

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 210,013
PLEASE wear a mask when you go out.


**********

Armadillo: Tuesday's Den: Nobody asked me, but……

13) Kansas City 26, Patriots 10:
— New England travelled to Kansas City Monday morning, played their #2-3 QB’s.
— Patriots had two empty trips to red zone; QB Hoyer was then replaced by Stidham.
— New England ran ball for 185 yards, but turned it over four times.

— KC won its first four games, scoring 29.3 ppg- they’re first team EVER to start out 4-0 four years in a row.
— Chiefs gave up 526 YR the last three weeks, 175.3/game.
— KC is 19-10 ATS in its last 29 games as a home favorite.

12) Green Bay 30, Falcons 16:
— Falcons are 0-4; they led one game 26-10 with 7:00 left, led 29-10 at halftime in another game. Coach’s job has to be in jeopardy.
— Atlanta has been outscored 84-46 in second half of games.
— Home side won last seven series games.

— Green Bay won its first four games, scoring 43-42-37-30 points.
— Three of four Packer games went over the total.
— Packers covered eight of last 11 games as a home favorite.

11) Houston Texans fired coach Bill O’Brien after their 0-4 start; Romeo Crennel is the interim coach. O’Brien had a 52-48 regular season record, with five winning seasons out of seven, but there has long been a power struggle within the Texans about personnel control, so the trade of DeAndre Hopkins, and subsequent 0-4 start, sealed O’Brien’s fate.

10) Dallas Cowboys’ defense has allowed 15 TD’s on their opponents’ last 37 drives- that’s not good. On the bright side, Dak Prescott is the first NFL player ever to pass for 450+ yards three games in a row.

9) Can’t remember an NFL game where both teams had 30+ first downs; Cleveland had 33, Dallas 35 in the Browns’ 49-38 win Sunday.

8) Only two players ever have won an NBA championship with three different teams; Robert Horry, John Salley. Lebron James would become the third if the Lakers win this year.

7) Word of the Day: quisling

According to the Oxford Dictionary, a quisling is “a traitor who collaborates with an enemy force occupying their country.”

The word originated in Norway, where a guy named Vidkun Quisling was a Norwegian military officer, politician, and Nazi collaborator in the 1930’s.

6) Not often a football team runs the ball for 300+ yards, let alone 400+; Kentucky ran it for 407 yards in their 42-41 overtime loss to Ole Miss Saturday.

On Signing Day next February, when college teams are announcing their new recruits, Ole Miss better have signed a hell of a lot of kids who play defense- they need ‘em.

5) In 2007, Michigan State’s football team had three QB’s on its roster who started NFL games this weekend: Brian Hoyer, Kirk Cousins, Nick Foles.

4) Before Saturday, the last time Oklahoma lost a football game at Iowa State was 1960, a couple months before my first birthday.

3) Baseball happenings over the last few days:
— Phillies demoted GM Matt Klentak, after the team spent a boatload of $$$ the last few years but never made the playoffs. Philly had the worst bullpen in the majors this year and they failed to re-sign free agent-to-be C JP Realmuto.
— Angels told GM Billy Eppler to take a hike; in five years under Eppler’s watch, the Halos went a combined 332-376 (.469), with no winning seasons, even though the Angels have the best player in baseball on their team. Pitching still matters.
— Washington Nationals fired their pitching coach, who was surprised by the move.

2) Houston 10, A’s 5:
— Tide turned when Houston scored four unearned runs in top of the 6th.
— Alex Bregman has homered in a playoff game on October 5 four years in a row.
— Weird watching an A’s-Astros game and seeing batboys wearing Dodger uniforms.

1) New York 9, Tampa Bay 3:
— Cole went six innings, got his first win in eight career starts vs Tampa Bay.
— New York scored 31 runs in its first three playoff games.
— Stanton hit a grand slam in the ninth inning.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA public betting, line movement for October 6
Patrick Everson

Jimmy Butler and the Heat hope to fully climb back into the NBA Finals in Tuesday night's Game 4 against LeBron James and the Lakers. FanDuel opened Los Angeles a 7.5-point favorite.

NBA betting odds are on the board for Game 4 of the NBA Finals, set for Tuesday night. Jimmy Butler and the Miami Heat look to knot up the best-of-7 series against LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers.

FanDuel Sportsbook provided insights on NBA Finals opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting for Tuesday’s matchup, along with odds to win the NBA championship. Covers will update this action report with NBA sharp picks vs. public bets and line movement up until game time.

NBA line movement

The Heat lost Games 1 and 2 by double digits, then climbed back into the series with a double-digit win of their own, beating the Lakers 115-104 in Game 3 Sunday. Still, Los Angeles opened a 7.5-point favorite for Game 4, and the line stuck there at FanDuel through Monday night for this 9 p.m. ET Tuesday clash.

FanDuel opened the total at 219.5 and dipped to 218.5 Monday evening.

NBA public betting

The public, per usual, is on the Lakers at FanDuel, with 71 percent of early tickets and 87 percent of early money taking Los Angeles. And although the total dialed down a point, there’s similar consensus on the Over, which is attracting 79 percent of tickets/84 percent of money.

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707LA LAKERS -708 MIAMI
MIAMI is 28-9 ATS (18.1 Units) in road games after 1 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons.




NBA
Dunkel

Tuesday, October 6

LA Lakers @ Miami

Game 707-708
October 6, 2020 @ 9:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Lakers
131.097
Miami
120.286
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Lakers
by 11
224
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Lakers
by 7 1/2
219 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
LA Lakers
(-7 1/2); Over




NBA
Long Sheet

Tuesday, October 6

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LA LAKERS (66 - 23) vs. MIAMI (57 - 34) - 10/6/2020, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA LAKERS are 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in road games in non-conference games this season.
MIAMI is 48-40 ATS (+4.0 Units) in all games this season.
MIAMI is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in all playoff games this season.
MIAMI is 30-21 ATS (+6.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
MIAMI is 20-38 ATS (-21.8 Units) after a win by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 9-18 ATS (-10.8 Units) in road games after scoring 115 points or more this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 4-4 against the spread versus LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
LA LAKERS is 7-2 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
6 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NBA

Tuesday, October 6

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Trend Report
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LA Lakers @ Miami
LA Lakers
LA Lakers is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Miami
LA Lakers is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games
Miami
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games at home
Miami is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 games


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Game 4 Odds: Lakers vs. Heat
Michael Crosson

The Miami Heat nabbed their first win of the NBA Finals with an impressive 115-104 victory on Sunday night – undeniably carried on the back of Jimmy Butler.

Miami still has a boatload of work to do heading into Game 4 though, still needing three victories in their next four games against a star-packed Los Angeles Lakers squad if they want to become the first team to hoist the Larry O’Brien Trophy following a run in the Disney World Bubble.

Betting Resources

Matchup: NBA Finals Game 4
Series: Lakers lead 2-1
Venue: ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex
Location: Orlando, Florida
Date: Tuesday, Oct. 6, 2020
Time: 9:00 p.m. ET
TV: ABC

Jimmy Butler and the Miami Heat will look to avoid a 3-0 deficit when the meet the L.A. Lakers on Sunday. (AP)

Line Movements

Miami shut everybody up for the moment with a triumphant victory in Game 3, but the oddsmakers are not batting an eye after the Laker loss on Sunday night – rolling out the same opening line of Los Angeles -7.5 for Game 4.

Miami and Los Angeles combined for 219 points in Game 3, and depending on ‘when’ and ‘where’ your bet was placed, there is a chance you could have had a winning ticket regardless of whether you bet the ‘over’ or ‘under,’ as the total for Game 3 opened at OU 217.5 and closed at OU 220.

The ‘over-under’ for Tuesday night’s contest has been intelligently placed at the same number of points these teams combined for in their most recent affair – OU 219.5

Spread: Los Angeles -7.5
Money-Line: Los Angeles -325 Miami +270
Total: 219.5
Updated Series Price: Los Angeles -1100, Miami +700

Game 3 Recap

Bam Adebayo and Goran Dragic both did not suit up for the Heat in Game 3, but it did not make a difference anyhow, as Sunday night was all about a Miami lineup led by none other than Mr. Jimmy Buckets.

Butler had one of the most impressive nights in NBA postseason history in Miami’s 115-104 win on Sunday night, recording just the third ever 40-point triple double in a Finals contest, and did it on 70% shooting, without attempting a single 3-pointer. He also recorded two blocks and two steals at the other end of the floor.

The Lakers’ starters were miserable from 3-point land in Game 3, going a combined 3 for 14 from beyond the arc in their first loss of these Finals. Unexpected bright spots came in the form of Markieff Morris and Kyle Kuzma on Sunday night though, as the duo provided 38 points and 9 rebounds off the bench to keep Frank Vogel’s team alive over the course of this one.

Los Angeles will undoubtedly need more out of their superstars in Game 4 if Butler plans on continuing the rampage he started on Sunday night.

Game 3 Betting Results

Outcome: Heat 115 Lakers 104

Miami came to play on Sunday and bettors backing the Heat were able to connect in the first quarter and both halves, with each decision never in doubt.

While the underdog was the right side, the same can't be said for total wagers. After a slow start, the offensive units picked up the pace in the second and third quarter yet the 'under' still managed to connect. Some bettors may have been able to connect on a middle too as the game opened 218 and closed at 220.

Game: Heat Win, Heat Cover (+9.5), Under 220
First Quarter: Heat Win (26-23), Heat Cover (+2.5), Under 55
First-Half: Heat Win (58-54), Heat Cover (+4.5), Over 109
Second-Half: Heat Win (57-50), Heat Cover (+7.5), Under 108

Los Angeles Betting Outlook

Inside the Stats

Bubble: 17-9 SU, 11-14-1 ATS, 12-14 O/U
Playoffs: 14-4 SU, 10-7-1 ATS, 8-10 O/U

I am not sure if the Lakers’ superstars just wanted to give the Heat their ceremonial victory lap for winning the Eastern Conference in Game 3 or what, but Los Angeles lacked all signs of a killer-instinct on Sunday night, and appeared to be content letting Miami walk all over them once they fell behind in this game.

Adebayo did not suit up for Miami in Sunday’s contest, which means Anthony Davis was drawing the Kelly Olynyk matchup for large chunks of this game, and the Brow managed to convert just six of nine shot attempts.

The strategy for the Lakers on Tuesday night needs to be plain and simple. Get AD going early on – he needs to shoot the ball more. Bam is likely not going to suit up again. Davis has no excuse for dodging the spotlight in Game 4 after a relatively pedestrian performance last time out.

Miami Betting Outlook

Inside the Stats

Bubble: 16-10 SU, 17-9 ATS, 13-12-1 O/U
Playoffs: 13-5 SU, 14-4 ATS, 9-9 O/U

Miami is now receiving a bit of love from Vegas heading into Game 4, being trimmed from a +1600 underdog, now down to just a +600 underdog following a victory on Sunday night without two of its crucial players.

I guess the only good thing about Bam and Goran being out is that there are more shots available for Butler, as the All-Star led the contest with 20 field goal attempts.

The Lakers are notorious for struggling to defend guards off the dribble and Jimmy exposed them in Game 3 by dropping 40 without taking a single 3-point attempt. He will look to utilize that part of his game again for his team on Tuesday night.

Key Injuries

Los Angeles

None

Miami

PF Bam Adebayo: Neck - Questionable
PG Goran Dragic: Foot - Doubtful

Adebayo said he feels good and wanted to suit up heading into Game 3, but the reports coming out of the bubble continue to be pessimistic regarding his, and Dragic’s statuses for the remainder of this series.

Leading up to tipoff on Sunday night, both players received “doubtful” tags which ultimately led to neither of the guys suiting up. Keep an eye out for any injury report upgrades before the contest, but I would not bank on either of them playing in Game 4.

[StarDust Bum]

TUESDAY, OCTOBER 6

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

LAL at MIA 09:00 PM
MIA +7.5
O 218.5
+500 +500

[StarDust Bum]

NBA FINALS RECORD:

ATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

10/06/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail

10/02/2020 0-1-1 25.00% -550 Detail

09/30/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail

Totals.......2-3-1......40.00%....-6.50

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Friday's six-pack

NFL leaders in scoring (thru four weeks):
46— Randy Bullock, Cin
45— Rodrigo Blankenship, Ind
42— Alvin Kamara, NO; Dalvin Cook, Minn
40— Mason Crosby, GB
39— Daniel Carlson, LV
38— Justin Tucker, Balt

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 212,420
PLEASE wear a mask when you go out.


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Armadillo: Friday's Den: Wrapping up a busy Thursday

13) Chicago 20, Tampa Bay 19:
— Tampa Bay scored 23-19 points in their losses, 31-28-38 in its wins.
— Buccaneers outgained Chicago 339-243.
— When Brady threw an incompletion on 4th down on Tampa’s last drive, he didn’t know it was 4th down. Surprising thing to see.

— Santos kicked a 38-yard FG with 1:13 left for the win.
— Chicago has won four of its first five games, their best start since 2012. 
— Bears are 14-3-1 ATS in last 18 games as a home underdog.

12) Atlanta 7, Miami 0: (Braves win 3-0)
— Braves have thrown four shutouts in five playoff games.
— Travis d’Arnaud had two more RBI for Atlanta, which makes the NLCS for first time since 2001.
— Excellent season for Miami, which shocked the world by making the playoffs.

11) Los Angeles 12, San Diego 3 (LA wins 3-0)
— Padres were up against it here, with Clevinger/Lamet both hurt coming in.
— Dodgers broke it open with five runs in third inning.
— Will Smith had five hits, scored three times of LA.

10) Houston 11, A’s 4 (Astros win 3-1)
— Brantley scored three runs, knocked in three more.
— Correa went 3-4 with five RBI.
— Astros are in their 4th consecutive ALCS.

9) New York 5, Tampa Bay 1 (series 2-2)
— Bronx bullpen threw five shutout innings in relief of Montgomery.
— Gleyber Torres scored two runs, knocked in two more.
— Decisive Game 5 is tonight in San Diego.

8) Sunday’s Denver-New England game was moved to 5pm Monday, first half of a Monday night twinbill with Chargers-Saints.

Buffalo-Tennessee has been moved from Sunday to 7pm Tuesday, assuming the Titans get healthier.
If the Buffalo-Tennessee game is played Tuesday, then the Week 6 Bills-Chiefs game gets pushed back from Thursday night to Sunday afternoon.

7) Houston 49, Tulane 31— Not often a team playing its season opener opposes a team playing its 4th game of the year, but welcome to 2020.

Tulane scored two defensive TD’s in the first 6:00 of this game, but wound up getting run off the field by Houston’s explosive passing game.

Cougars threw for 319 yards, outgained Tulane 476-211- they had TD passes of 41, 62 yards.

6) Los Angeles Chargers showed good common sense by naming rookie Justin Herbert their starting QB going forward; the kid has played well so far, might as well let him play so he gets the needed experience and also so their fanbase gets excited and will want to buy tickets next season, in the new domed stadium.

5) This week, someone posted a video on Twitter of a Kentucky basketball practice from 2018; John Calipari tells the team that if Tyler Herro can make eight 3-pointers in a row, he’ll end that day’s practice early. 

First shot, swish; he runs down to the other end, makes another. He goes end-to-end three other times, makes all eight shots, and his teammates erupt with joy.

Huge change in basketball over the last 10-15 years; skill development. The Curry/Thompson Golden State teams have shown how shooting can make teams great and make a guy rich, and guys have worked their butts off to become great shooters. Herro was a steal for Miami with the 13th pick of last year’s draft.

4) For some reason the other night, I’m sitting here at 2am with a Texas-Oklahoma football game from 1984 on TV. Keith Jackson/Frank Broyles calling a rain-soaked game, was great fun to listen to. Not much passing; shoulder pads were a lot bigger then.

3) Random movie trivia, part 1: When they filmed the movie The Blues Brothers in 1980, they wrecked 103 cars during the filming, 60 of which were police cars, at $4,000 a pop.

2) Random movie trivia, part 2: Until Thursday, I had no idea that actor Jon Voight was Angelina Jolie’s father.

1) Best wishes to Kansas football coach Les Miles, one of our favorites, who tested positive for COVID this week. Get well soon, coach.