The Bum's NBA Playoff Trends,News,Picks !

[StarDust Bum]

NBA public betting, line movement for October 9
Patrick Everson

LeBron James and the Lakers can finish off the Heat and claim the NBA championship in Game 5 on Wednesday Night. FanDuel Sportsbook opened Los Angeles -7.5 and moved to -7.

NBA betting odds are on the board and getting action for Game 5 of the NBA Finals on Friday night, which could end with a hoisting of the championship trophy as LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers look to finish off the Miami Heat.

FanDuel Sportsbook provided insights on NBA Finals opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting for Friday’s matchup, along with odds to win the NBA championship.

NBA line movement

The Lakers held off the Heat 102-96 in Game 4 Tuesday night to take a 3-1 lead in the best-of-seven series and move to the brink of the title. FanDuel opened Los Angeles a 7.5-point favorite for Game 5 and bounced to -7 a couple of times, including late Wednesday night.

The total opened at 216.5 and spent a few hours at 217 Wednesday before dropping to 216.

NBA public betting

Early betting splits at FanDuel indicate customers at least think the Heat will cover the number in Game 5. While ticket count is two-way, with a lean toward Miami at 54 percent, 82 percent of money was on the Heat through Wednesday night.

The total is very much seeing two-way action, with 59 percent of tickets on the Over, but money split right down the middle through Wednesday.

[StarDust Bum]

709MIAMI -710 LA LAKERS
MIAMI is 16-3 ATS (12.7 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons.




NBA
Dunkel

Friday, October 9

Miami @ LA Lakers

Game 709-710
October 9, 2020 @ 9:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Miami
119.767
LA Lakers
131.616
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Lakers
by 12
219
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Lakers
by 7 1/2
216 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
LA Lakers
(-7 1/2); Over




NBA
Long Sheet

Friday, October 9

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MIAMI (57 - 35) vs. LA LAKERS (67 - 23) - 10/9/2020, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 49-40 ATS (+5.0 Units) in all games this season.
MIAMI is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in all playoff games this season.
MIAMI is 31-21 ATS (+7.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
LA LAKERS are 13-24 ATS (-13.4 Units) in road games after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
LA LAKERS are 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in road games in non-conference games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 5-4 against the spread versus LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
LA LAKERS is 8-2 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
7 of 10 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NBA

Friday, October 9

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
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Miami @ LA Lakers
Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Miami's last 12 games when playing on the road against LA Lakers
Miami is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
LA Lakers
LA Lakers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
LA Lakers is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Miami


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Game 5 Odds: Heat vs. Lakers
Michael Crosson

The Los Angeles Lakers reigned victorious in a closely contested Game 4 NBA Finals bout in the Orlando bubble on Tuesday night, and now LeBron James finds himself just one victory over the Miami Heat away from becoming just the third player in NBA history to secure a championship ring with three different teams.

Betting Resources

Matchup: NBA Finals Game 5
Series: Lakers lead 3-1
Venue: ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex
Location: Orlando, Florida
Date: Friday, Oct. 9, 2020
Time: 9:00 p.m. ET
TV: ABC

LeBron James and the L.A. Lakers will look to eliminate the Miami Heat when the pair meet in Game 5 on Friday. (AP)

Line Movements

Tyler Herro broke the heart and bank of every Laker bettor with his last-second, garbage-time, 3-point bomb to secure a Miami +7.5 cover at the end of Game 4 on Tuesday night. Understandably, the oddsmakers have elected to leave the line for Friday night’s game at the same number – Los Angeles -7.

The ‘over-under’ in this series has split now 2-2 in the first four games of these NBA Finals, after combining for just 198 points in their most recent matchup. The total for Friday night’s game still sits in the same ballpark of their recent matchups – OU 216.

Spread: Los Angeles -7
Money-Line: Los Angeles -310 Miami +260
Total: 216
Updated Series Price: Los Angeles -10000, Miami +2000

Game 4 Recap

The Heat got back a key player from injury in Bam Adebayo (15 points, 7 rebounds) for Game 4, and despite losing the game, Miami finally looked like the team that locked down the Eastern Conference defensively by holding the Lakers to their lowest point total in this series so far (102).

Tuesday night was all about LeBron James yet again though, as the King led Los Angeles in scoring with 28 points, 12 rebounds, and 8 assists on 50% shooting in the victory.

The Lakers got virtually no help from the bench in Game 4, as guys not in the starting lineup for Frank Vogel’s team shot a combined 5 for 15 in the contest. But it did not make a difference as Anthony Davis went for 22 points on 50% shooting, while Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Danny Green combined for another 25 points.

Los Angeles tried to keep Miami in the game by turning the ball over 15 times and letting the Heat outshoot them 18-21 at the foul line. But Erik Spoelstra’s team just did not bring the firepower to knock off the Lakers in this one like they did in Game 3.

Lakers bettors felt confident down the stretch of Tuesday night’s contest, as LeBron and company boasted a nine-point lead with the clock winding down in Game 4. But of course, the 20-year old rookie from the University of Kentucky had to be the hero for Miami bettors, securing the backdoor cover on the final shot of the contest.

Covering the spread will not be enough for the Heat on Sunday night though, as one more Lakers victory will give them their first title since 2010.

Game 4 Betting Results

Outcome: Lakers 106 Heat 96

While Herro gave Heat backers a nice win on side wagers, the 'under' was never in doubt and it cashed across the board. The 'under' is now 3-1 in the first four games of the finals

Game: Lakers Win, Heat Cover (+7.5), Under 218.5
First Quarter: Lakers Win (27-22), Lakers Cover (-3), Under 56.5
First-Half: Lakers Win (49-47), Heat Cover (+5), Under 112.5
Second-Half: Lakers Win (53-49), Heat Cover (+4), Under 107

Miami Betting Outlook

Inside the Stats

Bubble: 16-11 SU, 18-9 ATS, 13-11-1 O/U
Playoffs: 13-6 SU, 15-4 ATS, 9-10 O/U

Even though they lost the game, Tuesday night’s contest should have been the most encouraging contest of this series so far for Heat fans, as the Miami defense really seemed to gel with Bam back in the lineup.

The results were not necessarily encouraging for the immediate future, as Miami is currently staring down the barrel of a 3-1 deficit. But Tuesday night showed that this young, Heat core has the foundation to defend and compete with dynamic, star-filled rosters like the Lakers, when healthy.

The Heat have had their greatest success against Los Angeles when they play through Butler and let him take 20+ shots per game, which is a tough strategy against a team wielding defensive firepower like the Lakers. Miami is clearly still one piece away. But it has still been one heck of a ride in the bubble for this dark-horse Miami squad.

Los Angeles Betting Outlook

Inside the Stats

Bubble: 18-9 SU, 11-15-1 ATS, 12-15 O/U
Playoffs: 15-4 SU, 10-8-1 ATS, 8-11 O/U

It feels obnoxious saying that AD has been a letdown in his last two NBA Finals contests for Los Angeles, averaging over 18 points per game, but that really is an underwhelming feat for the Lakers’ superstar big man.

Davis is shooting the ball fine over this stretch (50%+ in last 2 games), it just seems like the Lakers are strategizing away from the big man in this series, as AD draws Adebayo on a large percentage of his square-up opportunities.

King James currently sits as a -450 favorite to win Finals MVP after back-to-back slow performances from Davis. Looking forward to another emotional MVP speech from ‘the chosen one’ following the conclusion of this series.

Fun Fact

The last time the Lakers won a title, they knocked off Rajon Rondo and the “Big 3” Boston Celtics in 7 games back in the 2010 NBA Finals.

Ten years later, the four-time All-Star still comes off the bench for the Lakers, searching for his second title and contributing quality minutes at the guard position for a team that desperately needs it. If Los Angeles is able beat Miami one more time in this series, his second championship ring is undoubtedly well earned.)

Key Injuries

Los Angeles

None

Miami

PG Goran Dragic: Foot - Doubtful

Dragic suffered a fascia tear in his foot during Game 1 of these NBA Finals, and has not been able to get back on the floor since. Prior to Game 4, Dragic tried to warm-up with his team and go through a pre-game routine, but it was evident he was still dealing with some serious discomfort in his left foot.

The veteran point-guard is listed as 'doubtful' for Friday night’s tilt. I do not expect him to suit up for the remainder of this series – but you never know. Goran is a tough guy.

Kendrick Nunn is slated to fill Miami’s gap in the rotation for Game 5. Surprisingly, this move did not leave too big of a scar on the Heat’s offensive production during the first few meetings of Dragic’s absence, but they are now beginning to feel the loss of their point-guard as 2020 Rookie of the Year Runner-up scored just six points on 2 of 11 field goal attempts on Tuesday night.

[StarDust Bum]

FRIDAY, OCTOBER 9

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

MIA at LAL 09:00 PM

LAL -7.5

U 215.0

[StarDust Bum]

NBA FINALS RECORD:

ATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

10/09/2020 0-2-0 0.00% -1100 Detail

10/06/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail

10/02/2020 0-1-1 25.00% -550 Detail

09/30/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail

09/27/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail

Totals.......4-5-1......44.44%....-7.50

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Sunday's six-pack

NFL’s all-time regular season passing yardage leaders:
78,422— Drew Brees
75,946— Tom Brady
71,940— Peyton Manning
71,838— Brett Favre
61,361— Dan Marino
60,255— Philip Rivers

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 214,171
PLEASE wear a mask when you go out.


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Armadillo: Sunday's Den: Wrapping up a college football Saturday

13) Oklahoma 53, Texas 45 OT:
— Texas scored two TD’s in last 3:17 to force OT.
— Both kickers missed a field goal in one of the OT’s.
— Oklahoma benched QB Rattler in 2nd quarter, but he played 2nd half.
— Texas is 1-2 in Big X: 63-56/31-33/45-53. Wild games.

12) Texas A&M 41, Florida 38:
— Florida QB Kyle Trask is named after Kyle Field, where A&M plays their games; both his parents went to Texas A&M.
— Gators led 28-17 with 5:00 left in third quarter.
— A&M gained 543 yards, converted 12-15 on third down.
— Aggies scored 10 points in last 4:30, kicking a 26-yard FG for the win.

11) Missouri 45, LSU 41:
— LSU had ball 1st-and-goal on 1-yard line in last minute, didn’t score- they threw the ball on 3rd and 4th down.
— LSU is 1-2, with 44-34/45-41 losses. Tough time to be the defensive coordinator.
— Missouri gained 586 yards, threw for 406.
— LSU scored 41 points, despite going 0-10 on third down.

10) Duke 38, Syracuse 24— Misleading final score:
— Total yardage: 645-286, Duke
— First downs: 36-11, Duke
— Blue Devils ran ball for 363 yards.
— If I looked at the team stats without knowing the score, would’ve said Duke, by 28-30 points, but Blue Devils were minus-4 in turnovers, which kept Syracuse within reach.

9) Auburn 30, Arkansas 28:
— Auburn led 17-0 midway thru second quarter.
— Tigers kicked 39-yard FG with 0:07 left for the win, but a controversial call on a spiked ball/fumble in the last minute saved Auburn’s bacon.
— Arkansas QB Franks was 22-30/318 yards passing, with four TD’s.
— Auburn ran for 259 yards on a soggy field; surprisingly, no turnovers either way.

8) Alabama 63, Ole Miss 48:
— Total yardage was 723-647; truly terrible defense.
— Ole Miss allowed 51-41-63 points in their first three games.
— Alabama ran 71 plays, only 7 on third down- they converted 6 of them.
— Crimson Tide gained 723 yards on 71 plays, over 10 yards/play.

7) Upsets of the Week:
— Missouri (+14) 45, LSU 41
— Kansas State (+10.5) 21, TCU 14
— NC State (+7) 21, Virginia 14
— Boston College (+6.5) 31, Pitt 30
— Middle Tennessee (+6.5) 31, FIU 28
— Texas A&M (+6) 41, Florida 38
— East Carolina (+6) 44, South Florida 24

6) Boston College 31, Pittsburgh 30 OT:
— BC led 24-14 with 3:00 left in third quarter.
— Pitt’s kicker tied game with a 58-yard FG in last minute, then missed a PAT in overtime.
— Pitt was only 4-18 on 3rd down, but converted 3-4 on 4th down.

5) Georgia 44, Tennessee 21:
— Georgia poached QB’s from Wake Forest/USC to play this year, but former walk-on Bennett is now the starter, and the Dawgs are 3-0- he was 16-27/238 passing in this game.
— Bennett had to go play at Smith JC in Mississippi before Georgia gave him a scholarship.
— Dawgs ran football for 193 yards, outgained Tennessee 431-214.

4) Kentucky 24, Mississippi State 2:
— Two weeks ago, Miss State QB Costello threw for 623 yards; he got benched in this game, came back in 4th quarter and threw a pick-6. No bueno.
— Kentucky lost 42-41 to Ole Miss last week, so great job by their defense here.

3) NC State 38, Virginia 21:
— Virginia turned ball over four times (-3), converted only 4-18 on 3rd down.
— Cavaliers threw ball for 323 yards, outgained State 405-363.
— Wolfpack is off to a 3-1 start, despite playing three road games.

2) Home favorites/home underdogs against spread, by conference:
AAC 2-3-1……2-0
ACC 6-6-1……6-2
Big X 6-3……3-2
C-USA 0-7……1-2
SEC 5-6……5-4
Sun Belt 1-1……3-1

1) I miss watching Pac-12 football until 2am on Saturday nights; look forward to when they start their season, on November 7th.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA public betting, line movement for October 11
Patrick Everson

As usual, the Lakers are the public play, attracting 68 percent of tickets and money at FanDuel Sportsbook through Saturday afternoon for Sunday's Game 6.

NBA betting odds are on the board for Game 6 of the NBA Finals, set for Sunday night. The Miami Heat look to stretch this series to seven games, while the Los Angeles Lakers aim to finish off this battle and raise the trophy.

FanDuel Sportsbook provided early insights on NBA Finals opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting for Sunday’s matchup, along with odds to win the NBA championship.

NBA line movement

Jimmy Butler willed Miami to victory in Friday’s must-win Game 5, finishing with 35 points, 12 rebounds and 11 assists in a 111-108 victory over Los Angeles. The Heat pulled with 3-2 in the best-of-seven series heading into another must-win in a 7:30 p.m. ET tipoff Sunday.

FanDuel opened the Lakers at -5.5 and moved to -5 late Friday night, where the line remained Saturday afternoon. The total opened at 216 and dropped to 214.5.

NBA public betting

The Lakers are always the public play, and it’s showing up in the early betting splits at FanDuel. Los Angeles was attracting 68 percent of tickets and money, through Saturday afternoon. Sixty-two percent of early bets were on the Over, but money was almost dead even, with 51 percent on the Under.


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711LA LAKERS -712 MIAMI
MIAMI is 15-4 ATS (10.6 Units) in playoff games in the current season.




NBA
Dunkel

Sunday, October 11

LA Lakers @ Miami

Game 711-712
October 11, 2020 @ 7:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Lakers
124.969
Miami
126.414
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Miami
by 1 1/2
212
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Lakers
by 5
216 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Miami
(+5); Under




NBA
Long Sheet

Sunday, October 11

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LA LAKERS (67 - 24) vs. MIAMI (58 - 35) - 10/11/2020, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA LAKERS are 13-25 ATS (-14.5 Units) in road games after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
LA LAKERS are 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in road games in non-conference games this season.
MIAMI is 50-40 ATS (+6.0 Units) in all games this season.
MIAMI is 18-9 ATS (+8.1 Units) when playing on a neutral court this season.
MIAMI is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) in all playoff games this season.
MIAMI is 32-21 ATS (+8.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
MIAMI is 21-12 ATS (+7.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season.
MIAMI is 43-35 ATS (+4.5 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
LA LAKERS are 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) revenging a home loss vs opponent this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 6-4 against the spread versus LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
LA LAKERS is 8-3 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
7 of 11 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NBA

Sunday, October 11

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Trend Report
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LA Lakers @ Miami
LA Lakers
LA Lakers is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Miami
LA Lakers is 15-4 SU in its last 19 games
Miami
Miami is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Miami is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing LA Lakers

[StarDust Bum]

SUNDAY, OCTOBER 11

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

LAL at MIA 07:30 PM

MIA +5.5

U 214.5

[StarDust Bum]

NBA FINALS RECORD:

ATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

10/11/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail

10/09/2020 0-2-0 0.00% -1100 Detail

10/06/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail

10/02/2020 0-1-1 25.00% -550 Detail

09/30/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail

09/27/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail

Totals.......5-6-1......45.45%....-8.00