Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

The Bum's NBA Playoff Trends,News,Picks !

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • #61
    Armadillo: Wednesday's six-pack

    Six interesting spreads for this Week 3 NFL games:
    — Panthers @ LA Chargers (-6.5, 44)
    — Lions @ Arizona (-6, 54.5)
    — Buccaneers (-6, 43.5) @ Denver
    — Cowboys @ Seattle (-5, 55.5)
    — Packers @ New Orleans (-3, 51.5)
    — Chiefs @ Baltimore (-3.5, 53.5)

    Americans who have died from COVID-19: 200,641
    Please wear a mask when you go out.


    **********

    Armadillo: Wednesday's Den: Mid-week musings………

    13) LA Chargers and head coach Anthony Lynn may have to have a conversation soon; he seems committed to Tyrod Taylor being the Chargers #1 QB, but fact of the matter is, rookie Justin Herbert was the 6th player taken in last spring’s draft- they’ve got a lot of $$$ tied up in him, and he looked good against the Chiefs Sunday, so he will be the starter, and probably soon.

    Recent QB’s taken in the top 10 of the draft and when they first started:
    2020:
    — Joe Burrow— started Weeks 1-2
    — Justin Herbert— started Week 2, but because of injury
    — Tua Tagovailoa— hasn’t played yet

    2019:
    — Kyler Murray— started all 16 games
    — Daniel Jones— started 12 games

    2018:
    — Baker Mayfield— started 13 games
    — Sam Darnold— started 13 games
    — Josh Allen— started 11 games
    — Josh Rosen— started 13 games

    2017:
    — Mitch Trubisky— started 12 games
    — Patrick Mahomes— started one game

    Odds are the Chargers aren’t going to let Herbert sit on the bench all year.

    12) Unusual situation this weekend, with the 49ers playing back/back games in New Jersey, especially when they had a lot of injuries against the Jets last week and complained about the “sticky” turf at MetLife Stadium.

    QB Jimmy Garoppolo didn’t play in the 2nd half after spraining his ankle; he’s expected to play this week.

    49ers are staying/practicing at the Greenbrier resort in West Virginia this week; its pretty nice there- golfer Nick Faldo owns a home there.

    11) Speaking of turf, the Las Vegas Raiders play home games on natural grass, which is wheeled outside brand-new Allegiant Stadium when the Raiders aren’t playing there.

    When UNLV plays its home games in, they’ll play on an artificial turf field that is on the floor of the new stadium. Playing on artificial turf is cheaper than maintaining a pristine grass field.

    10) Jacob deGrom has been the ace of my fantasy baseball team for a few years now; I was watching him pitch Monday night and I wondered if pitchers got queasy when they saw certain umpires calling balls and strikes when they pitched.

    So I looked up deGrpm’s record and came up with umpires who he excelled with, and also some where things didn’t go so well;

    Umpires he likes to see:
    — Ron Kulpa 2-0, 0;66 four starts
    — Paul Mauert 3-0, 0.75 four starts
    — Mark Ripperger 2-0, 1.64 three starts
    — Lance Barrett 2-0, 0.48 three starts
    — Jeff Nelson 3-0, 1.90 four starts

    Umpires he’d rather not see:
    — Tom Hallion 1-2, 6.87 four starts
    — Mike Muchlinski 1-2, 7.98 three starts
    — John Tumpane 0-3, 3.68 five starts

    9) Two additional things about pitchers/umpires:
    a) Next year, when things go back to 162 games, we’ll do more on our daily write-ups about umpires, getting back to the way we’ve always done things.

    b) In October/November, when things get slow again before the college hoop/NBA re-starts, I’ll do a deeper dive into pitchers and umpires. Lot of good information in that database.

    8) Since the Tampa Bay Rays started using an opener, a relief pitcher throwing the first inning or so, they’ve gone 64-41 in games where they used one. They do things differently, but it sure does work.

    7) Nuggets 114, Lakers 106 (LA leads 2-1):
    — Nuggets shot 55% from the floor for the game.
    — Denver’s four subs were a combined +16.
    — Lakers’ three starters other than Davis/James scored a combined 20 points.
    — To oversimplify, Denver looked like the much hungrier team in this game.

    6) Unusual situation in Anaheim, where SS Andrelton Simmons opted out of the rest of the season with six days to go, with the Angels still alive (though barely) for a playoff spot. The team was taken completely by surprise.

    Simmons is a free agent after the season; this would lead you to believe that he has zero desire to re-sign with the Halos.

    5) Chicago Bulls hired Billy Donovan as their new coach, which has to make give a lot of college coaches reasons to exhale— he would’ve been a highly sought after college coach.

    I’m curious if Donovan would’ve been a strong candidate for the Knicks/Nets if he became available before those jobs were filled— Donovan grew up on Long Island.

    4) Denver Broncos signed QB Blake Bortles to back up Jeff Driskel while Drew Lock nurses his injuries. Lock is expected to miss 3-4 weeks.

    3) Cubs’ SS Javy Baez and Twins’ P Jose Berrios are married to sisters; they faced each other in the last two All-Star games, but until last Sunday night, they had never faced each other in a regular season game. Baez went 0-4 Sunday night, in a game Berrios won 4-0.

    2) It is very early in this truncated college football season, but so far, home favorites in conference games are 1-5 ATS. Home underdogs are 2-2.

    1) If the baseball playoffs started today (they don’t):
    AL East: Tampa Bay, New York
    AL Central: Chicago, Minnesota
    AL West: Oakland, Houston
    AL wild cards: Cleveland, Toronto

    NL East: Atlanta, Miami
    NL Central: Chicago, St Louis
    NL West: Los Angeles, San Diego
    NL wild cards: Cin/Mil/SF
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

    Comment


    • #62
      713BOSTON -714 MIAMI
      BOSTON is 53-30 ATS (20 Units) versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game in the last 3 seasons.




      NBA
      Dunkel

      Wednesday, September 23


      Boston @ Miami

      Game 713-714
      September 23, 2020 @ 8:30 pm

      Dunkel Rating:
      Boston
      126.503
      Miami
      125.613
      Dunkel Team:
      Dunkel Line:
      Dunkel Total:
      Boston
      by 1
      208
      Vegas Team:
      Vegas Line:
      Vegas Total:
      Boston
      by 3 1/2
      210 1/2
      Dunkel Pick:
      Miami
      (+3 1/2); Under





      NBA
      Long Sheet

      Wednesday, September 23


      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

      BOSTON (57 - 29) vs. MIAMI (54 - 31) - 9/23/2020, 8:30 PM
      Top Trends for this game.
      MIAMI is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in all playoff games this season.
      MIAMI is 45-29 ATS (+13.1 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
      BOSTON is 49-33 ATS (+12.7 Units) in all games this season.
      BOSTON is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) when playing with 3 or more days rest over the last 3 seasons.
      BOSTON is 30-15 ATS (+13.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
      BOSTON is 40-29 ATS (+8.1 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
      BOSTON is 20-11 ATS (+7.9 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
      BOSTON is 38-28 ATS (+7.2 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
      BOSTON is 20-11 ATS (+7.9 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.

      Head-to-Head Series History
      MIAMI is 8-5 against the spread versus BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
      BOSTON is 7-6 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
      6 of 11 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------




      NBA

      Wednesday, September 23


      ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      Trend Report
      ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

      Boston @ Miami
      Boston
      Boston is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
      Boston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
      Miami
      Miami is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games
      Miami is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games
      Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

      Comment


      • #63
        Game 4 Odds: Celtics vs. Heat
        Michael Crosson

        After blowing 10-point leads in each of the first two Eastern Conference Final contests, the Boston Celtics finally secured their first victory of the series with a 117-106 win on Saturday night.

        The hill to climb remains steep for Brad Steven’s squad though as they still trail the Heat 2-1 heading into Wednesday’s Game 4 tilt in the bubble.

        Betting Resources

        Matchup: Eastern Conference Finals Game 4
        Venue: ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex
        Location: Orlando, Florida
        Date: Wednesday, Sept. 23, 2020
        Time: 8:30 p.m. ET
        TV: ESPN

        Gordon Hayward returned for the Celtics in Game 3 and lifted Boston past Miami. (AP)

        Line Movements

        The Celtics finally rewarded ‘favorite bettors’ by winning and covering in Game 3 on Saturday night, and Vegas has decided to lean on them again for Game 4 – listing Boston as a two and a half-point favorite to even up this series with Miami.

        The winning team in this series has eclipsed 115 points in two out of the three contests so far, easily sending the total ‘over’ in those two matchups, respectively.

        The total for this game still sits at OU 210.5 though, as the oddsmakers refuse to give these tough defensive units any leeway on the ‘over-under.’

        Spread: Boston -3
        Money-Line: Boston -160, Miami +140
        Total: 210.5
        Updated Series Price: Miami -125, Boston +105

        Game 3 Recap

        Opportunity knocked for Jayson Tatum on Saturday night when the spotlight fell on him to lead his team to it first victory in this year’s Eastern Conference Finals, and he did not “disappoint´ – leading his team in shot attempts and contributing 25 points, 14 rebounds, and 8 assists on 45% shooting to the Celtic victory.

        What really got my attention though, was how the rest of the Boston starters answered the bell in this game, especially Jaylen Brown.

        Believe it or not, Tatum was the only Celtic starter to record a field goal percentage under 50% in this contest – led by Brown who scored 26 points on 65% shooting.

        The Heat may have failed to knock off the Celtics on Saturday night, but it was not because Bam Adebayo short-changed his team by any means.

        Bam will look to continue his playoff tear against the Celtics on Wednesday night after going for 27 points on 71% shooting in the Heat’s Game 3 loss.

        Game 3 Betting Results

        The Boston offense finally put forth a consistent effort in Game 3 and bettors were able to cash the club in the first quarter, first-half, second-half and for the game.

        The 'over' got off to a decent start and also remained steady in the final two quarters, which helped the high side connect across the board too.

        Outcome: Celtics 117 Heat 106

        Game: Celtics Win, Celtics Cover (-3.5), Over 208.5
        First Quarter: Celtics Win (31-22), Celtics Cover (-2), Over 52.5
        First-Half: Celtics Win (63-50), Celtics Cover (-3), Over 104.5
        Second-Half: Heat Win (56-54), Celtics Cover (+3.5), Over 104

        Celtics Betting Outlook

        Inside the Stats


        Bubble: 14-8 SU, 12-9-1 ATS, 7-13-1 O/U
        Playoffs: 9-5 SU, 9-5 ATS, 3-10 O/U

        Marcus Smart and Kemba Walker really stepped up in a big way for the Celtics on Saturday night as the guard tandem combined for 41 points, 10 rebounds, and 8 assists to help guide their team to its first victory of this series.

        The glorious part about this game for Boston is that Tatum has a relatively pedestrian outing during the Celtics’ must-win bout, but the Celtics still dominated for the entirety of the contest – never trailing Miami at the end of a single stanza in this one.

        Tatum has the star-power to completely take over a game and win it for his team if he needs to, but it was good to see he does not necessarily need to do it in order to earn victories in this series.

        Heat Betting Outlook

        Inside the Stats


        Bubble: 13-7 SU, 13-7 ATS, 9-10-1 O/U
        Playoffs: 10-2 SU, 10-2 ATS, 5-7 O/U

        Miami is still in the driver’s seat in this series, but to say Vegas is not worried about Jimmy Butler and company might be a stretch, as the Heat have fallen to just a -135 favorite to represent the East in this year’s NBA Finals after earning a 2-0 lead on the third-seeded Celtics.

        A team that had been winning games with soul-sucking defense and clutch shooting appeared to be totally unenthused about keeping up with the hot-shooting Boston lineup in Game 3.

        Miami utilized a 2-3 zone for extended stretches during the first two games of this series – just begging Boston to beat them from deep. Eric Spoelstra may want to try going back to that more frequently on defense if his guys are going to continuously allow Boston to shoot at a 49% clip as a unit from 2-point territory.

        Key Injuries

        Boston


        SG Romeo Langford: Hip - Out

        Miami

        PF Chris Silva: Pelvis - Game Time Decision

        After exiting Boston’s very first playoff game in the bubble against Philadelphia with an ankle injury, Gordon Hayward returned to the court for Game 3 of this series and logged 30 minutes off the bench in his first contest back since August 17th.

        The extra rest between games three and four should serve as crucial recovery time as he tries to return to full-strength for the tail-end of this series.
        Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

        Comment


        • #64
          WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 23

          GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


          BOS at MIA 08:30 PM

          MIA +3.5

          U 212.0
          Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

          Comment


          • #65
            COMPLETED PICKS

            Past Completed Picks

            DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD


            09/23/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
            09/22/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail
            09/20/2020 0-2-0 0.00% -1100 Detail
            09/19/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
            09/18/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail
            09/17/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
            09/15/2020 1-3-0 25.00% -1150 Detail
            09/13/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
            09/12/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail
            09/11/2020 3-0-1 87.50% +1500 Detail
            09/10/2020 0-2-0 0.00% -1100 Detail
            09/09/2020 1-3-0 25.00% -1150 Detail
            09/08/2020 2-2-0 50.00% -100 Detail
            09/07/2020 1-3-0 25.00% -1150 Detail
            09/06/2020 1-3-0 25.00% -1150 Detail
            09/05/2020 3-1-0 75.00% +950 Detail
            09/04/2020 3-1-0 75.00% +950 Detail
            09/03/2020 0-4-0 0.00% -2200 Detail
            09/02/2020 1-3-0 25.00% -1150 Detail
            09/01/2020 2-2-0 50.00% -100 Detail

            Totals.......28-33-1........44.90%.....-41.50
            Last edited by StarDust Bum; 09-25-2020, 01:14 AM.
            Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

            Comment


            • #66
              At the heart of each of us, whatever our imperfections, there exists a silent pulse of perfect rhythm, which is absolutely individual and unique, and yet which connects us to everything else.



              Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

              Six interesting spreads for this week’s college games:
              — Florida State @ Miami (-14)
              — Louisville @ Pittsburgh (-3)
              — Tennessee (-3.5) @ South Carolina
              — West Virginia @ Oklahoma State (-7)
              — Kentucky @ Auburn (-8)
              — Duke @ Virginia (-5.5)

              Americans who have died from COVID-19: 201,617
              Please wear a mask when you go out.


              **********

              Armadillo: Thursday's Den: Doing some thinking out loud…….

              13) We talked yesterday about the LA Chargers’ QB situation; Wednesday afternoon, word came out that on Sunday, Tyrod Taylor was getting a pain-killing shot for bruised ribs before the game, when the Chargers’ team doctor accidentally punctured Taylor’s lung with the needle.

              Oy.

              Rookie QB Justin Herbert is likely to start again this week; it’ll be interesting to see how this plays out, going forward. I’m thinking the Chargers might also have a new team doctor soon.

              12) Thinking out loud here, but is it better to be the #3 seed in the American League than the #2 seed?

              #3 seed would play the 2nd-place team with the worst record, which right now would be the Astros, who are 28-28.

              #2 seed would play the #1 Wild Card team, which right now would be Cleveland, which is 32-24.

              The #1 Wild Card team figures to be a team that ended the regular season on a roll; this is such a unique situation, no real way of knowing until it all plays out.

              11) There could be extra games before the playoffs begin; St Louis may have to play a doubleheader on Monday if they’re still in contention to make the playoffs, then there is the possibility that three teams tie for the two Wild Cards in the National League- that could be very cumbersome.

              10) Tuesday night in Washington, the Nationals beat Philly 9-8 when 32-year old rookie Yadiel Hernandez hit a walk-off homer for Washington. Hernandez is now the oldest player in MLB history whose first career home run was also a walk-off blast.

              9) Tampa Bay 8, New York Mets 5— Rays win their first AL East tile since 2010.

              8) RIP to the great running back Gale Sayers, 77, who passed away this week after suffering from dementia the last few years. RIP, sir.

              Sayers was a great running back, fast, elusive- he scored six TD’s in a game against the 49ers, but he also hurt his knee in a later game against San Francisco and played only seven years in the NFL. Sayers was inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame when he was 34.

              7) Back in the early 70’s, ABC had a Tuesday night movie of the week, where the movies were made just for showing on TV, not in theaters. Brian’s Song was one of those, but what a cast: Billy Dee Williams, James Caan, Jack Warden.

              The movie chronicled a great friendship between Sayers and teammate Brian Piccolo; Piccolo replaced Sayers when he got hurt, but Piccolo was discovered to have cancer, and he passed away way too young. Very sad movie, but Brian’s Song is one of the best-ever sports movies.

              6) Miami 112, Boston 109 (Heat leads 3-1):
              — Tyler Herro scored 37 points in 36:00 off the bench.
              — Miami was +11 (19-8) in turnovers.
              — Celtics took 40 3-point shots, 42 2-point shots.

              5) It is interesting to me the total lack of major league catchers who are good hitters; JT Realmuto is far and away the best of the bunch, everyone else is hit-and-miss. Modern baseball values defense more than offense behind the plate.

              4) Tuesday night was a rough night for an Australian gambler; this is from Ben Fawkes, who works for VSIN:

              – This person wagered $228,733 on Lakers money line (-263) pre-game

              – The person then cashed out for $97,624 in the 2nd quarter with Denver leading 44-32

              – The person placed all that money on Denver -9.5

              Denver won 114-106 after Alex Caruso made an unguarded layup w/ 1.6 sec left. Not good.

              3) Random stat: Yu Darvish is having a great season for the Cubs; nine of his 11 starts have been at home at Wrigley Field, but in his two road starts, he’s allowed only one run in 13 innings.

              2) Here is some obscure trivia: In many East Asian cultures, including China, Korea, Japan and Taiwan, the number 4 is considered unlucky.

              You probably wouldn’t see a button indicating the 4th floor on an elevator because most apartment buildings and hospitals skip the number four altogether. In Beijing, it’s not even possible to get a vehicle license plate that has the number 4 on it. The Chinese word for the number 4 sounds much like the Chinese word for death., and that is why it is considered unlucky.

              1) If the baseball playoffs started today (they don’t):
              AL East: Tampa Bay, New York
              AL Central: Minnesota, Chicago
              AL West: Oakland, Houston
              AL wild cards: Cleveland, Toronto

              NL East: Atlanta, Miami
              NL Central: Chicago, St Louis
              NL West: Los Angeles, San Diego
              NL wild cards: Cincinnati, San Francisco
              Last edited by StarDust Bum; 09-24-2020, 01:10 PM.
              Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

              Comment


              • #67
                709LA LAKERS -710 DENVER
                DENVER is 11-1 ATS (9.9 Units) when trailing in a playoff series over the last 2 seasons.




                NBA
                Dunkel

                Thursday, September 24


                LA Lakers @ Denver

                Game 709-710
                September 24, 2020 @ 9:00 pm

                Dunkel Rating:
                LA Lakers
                122.381
                Denver
                124.598
                Dunkel Team:
                Dunkel Line:
                Dunkel Total:
                Denver
                by 2
                212
                Vegas Team:
                Vegas Line:
                Vegas Total:
                LA Lakers
                by 6
                214 1/2
                Dunkel Pick:
                Denver
                (+6); Under





                NBA
                Long Sheet

                Thursday, September 24


                --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                LA LAKERS (62 - 22) vs. DENVER (55 - 35) - 9/24/2020, 9:00 PM
                Top Trends for this game.
                DENVER is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when trailing in a playoff series this season.

                Head-to-Head Series History
                DENVER is 8-6 against the spread versus LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
                LA LAKERS is 8-6 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
                8 of 14 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

                --------------------------------------------------------------------------------




                NBA

                Thursday, September 24


                ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                Trend Report
                ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                LA Lakers @ Denver
                LA Lakers
                LA Lakers is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
                The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Lakers's last 6 games when playing Denver
                Denver
                Denver is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
                Denver is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home


                ----------------------------------------------------------


                Game 4 Odds: Lakers vs. Nuggets
                Michael Crosson

                Victory hung in the balance during the closing seconds of Game 2, but it finally became a reality for Mike Malone’s squad in Game 3.

                The Denver Nuggets knocked off the Los Angeles Lakers, 114-106 on Tuesday night, and now have a chance to even up the series at two games apiece with another win in Thursday’s Game 4 showdown in the NBA bubble.

                Betting Resources

                Matchup: Western Conference Finals Game 4
                Series: Lakers lead 2-1
                Venue: ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex
                Location: Orlando, Florida
                Date: Thursday, Sept. 24, 2020
                Time: 9:00 p.m. ET
                TV: TNT

                The Nuggets captured a wire-to-wire win in Game 3 but still trail the Lakers 2-1 in the Western Conference Finals. (AP)

                Line Movements

                Despite the Nuggets losing at the buzzer in Game 2, and cashing hefty ‘underdog money line’ tickets in their most recent contest with the Lakers, the oddsmakers are still rolling with the same line, Denver +6, for Game 4 of these Western Conference Finals.

                After combining for an average over 222 points per game in the first three contests of this series and cashing ‘over’ tickets in two out of those three games, Vegas has decided to stay-put with the ‘over-under’ as well, leaving it at the same clip – OU 214.5.

                Spread: Los Angeles -6
                Money-Line: Los Angeles -250, Miami +210
                Total: 214.5
                Updated Series Price: Los Angeles -1400, Denver +800 +105

                Game 3 Recap

                Let me tell you, if I am asked to recall one in-game moment from this whole NBA bubble phase when this season is all said and done, I can almost guarantee my answer will be, “the night LeBron James and the Lakers were forced to double-team Jerami Grant in the midst of a title run.”

                There is something ironically pleasing burning the image in my head of the former-Sixer forward going off 26 points on 63.6% shooting in a must-win game against a Laker team that typically guards his position relatively well.

                Anthony Davis and LeBron were not the guys catching blame in the LAL locker room following Game 3, combining for 57 of their teams’ 106 points on 57.5% shooting for the contest.

                It just simply was not enough to get it done against the Nuggets on this given night, as Jamal Murray poured in 10 fourth quarter points on 80% shooting to seal his team’s first Conference Finals victory in the bubble.

                Game 3 Betting Results

                Denver came out firing in the first and second quarters on Tuesday in Game 3, posting 63 points at halftime.

                That effort helped the 'over' connect in both the first-half and second-half, plus the rally by the Lakers in the second-half came up short and that hurt bettors chasing on L.A. (-6.5) in the final 24 minutes.

                Outcome: Nuggets 114 Lakers 106

                Game: Nuggets Win, Nuggets Cover (+6.5), Over 215
                First Quarter: Nuggets Win (29-27), Nuggets Cover (+2), Over 55
                First-Half: Nuggets Win (63-53), Nuggets Cover (+3.5), Over 109.5
                Second-Half: Lakers Win (53-51), Nuggets Cover (+6.5), Under 104.5

                Lakers Betting Outlook

                Inside the Stats

                Bubble: 13-8 SU, 9-12 ATS, 9-12 O/U
                Playoffs: 10-3 SU, 8-5 ATS, 5-8 O/U

                I figured the Lakers would take their foot off the gas a tad once they went up 2-0 on the Nuggets in this series, but not in the way they ended up doing it on Tuesday. I imagined Davis drawing tons of double teams and Lebron sharing the ball way too much – not Danny Green, Alex Caruso, AND Rajon Rondo stinking up the joint for the entirety of the contest.

                LeBron was great in the contest and honestly looked like the only player on the court for LAL that wanted to win down the stretch of Game 3 – tallying another monster triple-double of 30 points, 11 assists, and 10 rebounds in the contest.

                Davis ended up with 27 points on 53% shooting in the contest, but he looked downright lethargic for most of the game – corralling just two rebounds and bricking all four of his 3-point attempts.

                This is likely just a case of Frank Vogel’s team a little too comfortable a little too soon against a very dangerous unit. I expect them to get it together and look like the Lakers from Game 1 on Thursday night.

                Nuggets Betting Outlook

                Inside the Stats

                Bubble: 12-13 SU, 16-9 ATS, 15-8-2 O/U
                Playoffs: 9-8 SU, 12-5 ATS, 7-8-2 O/U

                Clearly, Denver’s ability to finally over the hump against Los Angeles did wonders for Nikola Jokic and company, as we saw the Lakers fall from -10000 favorites to represent the Western Conference in the NBA Finals, all the way down to -1400 favorites in the time frame of just a few hours during the Nuggets Game 3 victory.

                The Nuggets entered the fourth quarter of Game 3 with an 18-point advantage, but even with that large of a lead, Denver still needed some late-game, 3-point heroics from Murray to close out the Lakers who rallied all the way back to just a three-point deficit by the middle of the last stanza.

                Murray better bring the fourth quarter shooting he had on Tuesday night with him to the HP Field House for the whole contest on Thursday. There is going to be a frustrated King James waiting for him at the start of Game 4.

                Key Injuries

                L.A. Lakers

                SG Dion Waiters: Groin - Out

                Denver

                SF Vlatko Cancar: Foot - Out
                SF Will Barton: Knee - Out

                LeBron landed on the injury report heading into Game 3 with a nagging groin issue he has been nursing all season.

                Los Angeles did not even bother putting him on the report for Thursday night’s contest after a lackluster performance across the board from the “Showtime” squad in their last matchup.
                Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                Comment


                • #68
                  THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 24

                  GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


                  LAL at DEN 09:00 PM

                  LAL -6.0

                  O 215.0
                  Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                  Comment


                  • #69
                    COMPLETED PICKS

                    Past Completed Picks

                    DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD


                    09/24/2020 1-0-1 75.00% +500 Detail
                    09/23/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
                    09/22/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail
                    09/20/2020 0-2-0 0.00% -1100 Detail
                    09/19/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
                    09/18/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail
                    09/17/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
                    09/15/2020 1-3-0 25.00% -1150 Detail
                    09/13/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
                    09/12/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail
                    09/11/2020 3-0-1 87.50% +1500 Detail
                    09/10/2020 0-2-0 0.00% -1100 Detail
                    09/09/2020 1-3-0 25.00% -1150 Detail
                    09/08/2020 2-2-0 50.00% -100 Detail
                    09/07/2020 1-3-0 25.00% -1150 Detail
                    09/06/2020 1-3-0 25.00% -1150 Detail
                    09/05/2020 3-1-0 75.00% +950 Detail
                    09/04/2020 3-1-0 75.00% +950 Detail
                    09/03/2020 0-4-0 0.00% -2200 Detail
                    09/02/2020 1-3-0 25.00% -1150 Detail
                    09/01/2020 2-2-0 50.00% -100 Detail

                    Totals.......29-33-2........46.77%.....-36.50
                    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 09-26-2020, 02:28 AM.
                    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                    Comment


                    • #70
                      Do all the good you can, by all the means you can, in all the ways you can, in all the places you can, at all the times you can, to all the people you can, as long as ever you can.


                      Armadillo: Friday's six-pack

                      Six interesting spreads for this week’s college games:
                      — Florida (-13.5, 57) @ Ole Miss
                      — Iowa State (-2.5, 44.5) @ TCU
                      — Mississippi State @ LSU (-16.5, 57)
                      — Tulane (-3.5, 54.5) @ Southern Mississippi
                      — Army @ Cincinnati (-13.5, 45.5)
                      — NC State @ Virginia Tech (-6.5, 56.5)

                      Americans who have died from COVID-19: 201,959
                      Please wear a mask when you go out.


                      **********

                      Armadillo: Friday's Den: Random stuff with the weekend here…….

                      13) Teams that have already clinched playoff spots will be tweaking their lineups and pitching setups this weekend; A’s used Jesus Luzardo for three innings in relief Thursday, as they ready to maybe piggy-back him and Mike Fiers in Game 1 of the playoffs on Tuesday.

                      San Diego might not have Mike Clevinger (biceps) now, so Dinelson Lamet could get their Game 1 nod on Wednesday, which may shorten his stint on the mound in San Francisco tonight.

                      12) Cardinals 4, Brewers 2— Yadier Molina got his 2,000th hit, which is a lot, especially for a catcher; 32-year old Kwang-Hyun Kim is 3-0, 1.62 in his first season of American baseball.

                      11) Astros 12, Rangers 4— Texas is 13-10 in its new domed stadium when the roof is closed; they’re 0-4 when the roof is open, as it was in this game. Jose Altuve had three hits, three RBI in his best game of what has been a poor season.

                      10) Dolphins 31, Jaguars 13:
                      — Miami’s first three drives: 29 plays, 239 yards, 21 points.
                      — Fitzpatrick was 18-20 passing for 160 yards, two TD’s.
                      — Dolphins won four of last five visits to Jacksonville.

                      — Dolphins had a 12-yard advantage in starting field position.
                      — Miami converted 7-13 on 3rd down, Jaguars 3-10.
                      — Last 4+ years, Jaguars are 6-10 ATS as a home favorite.

                      9) Indians 5, White Sox 4— Cleveland sweeps a 4-game series, has won seven of last eight games- they trail Pale Hose by a game, Twins by two games in AL Central. All three teams are going to make the playoffs.

                      8) Lakers 114, Nuggets 108 (LA leads 3-1)
                      — Third straight series Denver has trailed 3-1.
                      — James/Davis combined to shoot 28 foul shots; Denver shot 23.
                      — Denver subs were a combined minus-29 in 82:00.

                      7) Pac-12 is going to play football starting November 6; they’ll have their conference title game December 18. If they’re smart, Pac-12 will play some weeknight games; won’t be much else going on sports-wise during the week in November.

                      6) UAB 42, South Alabama 10— Blazers racked up 509 yards, converted 10-16 third down plays and led 28-10 at halftime- UAB averaged 11.4 yards per pass attempt.

                      5) Was bummed out when I found out this week that the Starbucks closest to my house closed down; used to stop in there for a hot chocolate and a slice of lemon pound cake- they have great lemon pound cake.

                      I’ve never had coffee, but hot chocolate on a chilly day is a good thing.

                      4) Congrats to the Toronto (Buffalo) Blue Jays, who clinched a playoff spot Thursday, despite playing their home games this season in their adopted hometown of Buffalo, where you can smelll Cheerios being made in the factory beyond the centerfield fence.

                      3) You know a guy is a sketchy prospect when he throws a no-hitter, and still doesn’t get picked up in our 14-team fantasy league, where each team has 28 players on his roster.

                      Cubs’ Alec Mills allowed eight runs in 9.2 IP in his two starts since throwing a no-hitter in Milwaukee September 13. For the season, he is 5-5, 4.48 in 11 starts.

                      2) Robinson Cano bunted for a hit against Washington’s shift in the 6th inning Thursday; it was his first bunt basehit since 2013.

                      1) If the baseball playoffs started today (they don’t):
                      AL East: Tampa Bay, New York
                      AL Central: Minnesota, Chicago
                      AL West: Oakland, Houston
                      AL wild cards: Cleveland, Toronto

                      NL East: Atlanta, Miami
                      NL Central: Chicago, St Louis
                      NL West: Los Angeles, San Diego
                      NL wild cards: Cincinnati, San Francisco
                      Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                      Comment


                      • #71
                        715MIAMI -716 BOSTON
                        BOSTON is 53-31 ATS (18.9 Units) versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game in the last 3 seasons.




                        NBA
                        Dunkel

                        Friday, September 25


                        Miami @ Boston

                        Game 715-716
                        September 25, 2020 @ 8:30 pm

                        Dunkel Rating:
                        Miami
                        126.398
                        Boston
                        125.717
                        Dunkel Team:
                        Dunkel Line:
                        Dunkel Total:
                        Miami
                        by 1
                        218
                        Vegas Team:
                        Vegas Line:
                        Vegas Total:
                        Boston
                        by 3 1/2
                        213
                        Dunkel Pick:
                        Miami
                        (+3 1/2); Over





                        NBA
                        Long Sheet

                        Friday, September 25


                        --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                        MIAMI (55 - 31) vs. BOSTON (57 - 30) - 9/25/2020, 8:30 PM
                        Top Trends for this game.
                        BOSTON is 49-34 ATS (+11.6 Units) in all games this season.
                        BOSTON is 20-11 ATS (+7.9 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
                        BOSTON is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in road games off a upset loss as a favorite this season.
                        BOSTON is 30-16 ATS (+12.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
                        BOSTON is 40-30 ATS (+7.0 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
                        BOSTON is 38-29 ATS (+6.1 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
                        BOSTON is 31-19 ATS (+10.1 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
                        MIAMI is 46-38 ATS (+4.2 Units) in all games this season.
                        MIAMI is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in all playoff games this season.
                        MIAMI is 28-19 ATS (+7.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

                        Head-to-Head Series History
                        MIAMI is 9-5 against the spread versus BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
                        BOSTON is 7-7 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
                        7 of 12 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
                        Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                        Comment


                        • #72
                          Game 5 Odds: Heat vs. Celtics
                          Michael Crosson

                          On the back of a of a 20-year old rookie named Tyler Herro, the Miami Heat have taken a commanding 3-1 series lead against the third-seeded Boston Celtics in the Eastern Conference Finals.

                          The club from South Florida is now just win away from being the first team to punch a ticket to the 2020 NBA Finals in the NBA Bubble from Orlando, Florida on Friday as they meet in Game 5.

                          Betting Resources

                          Matchup: Eastern Conference Finals Game 5
                          Venue: ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex
                          Location: Orlando, Florida
                          Date: Friday, Sept. 25, 2020
                          Time: 8:30 p.m. ET
                          TV: ESPN

                          Heat rookie Tyler Herro scored 37 points in Game 3 as Miami opened up a 3-1 series lead over Boston. (AP)

                          Line Movements

                          The Celtics find themselves trailing the Heat by two games in this series, but Boston is still found on the majority of Vegas betting boards as a three and a half-point favorite to force a Game 6 in this year’s Eastern Conference Finals against Miami.

                          ‘Under’ tickets have been golden in the NBA Playoffs thus far, but the same cannot be said when these teams two teams meet up, as three out of four games in this series have soared over the total. The ‘over-under’ for the fifth tilt in this series has gotten a slight bump up to OU 213.

                          Spread: Boston -3
                          Money-Line: Boston -155, Miami +135
                          Total: 213.5
                          Updated Series Price: Miami -400, Boston +325

                          Game 4 Recap

                          The Celtics choked away double-digit deficits in their first two losses of this series, but the loss by Brad Stevens’ team on Wednesday night was somehow even uglier.

                          Jayson Tatum was held scoreless during the first half of Game 4, putting his team in a difficult position to be successful in what has proven to be the most crucial contest for the Celtics thus far. He turned it on in the second half after it was already too late though, going for 28 points on 62.5% shooting in the final two stanzas.

                          On most days, Tatum’s second half explosion might have been just enough to send his team over the edge, but on this given Wednesday night, it was not nearly enough against Miami’s rookie off the bench from the University of Kentucky. Herro scored 37 points on 67% shooting and banged home 5 of 10 3-pointers against the Celtics in Game 4.

                          Miami has now cashed ‘underdog money line’ tickets in three out of four games in this series. They will look to do it one last time against the favorited Celtics on Friday night.

                          Game 4 Betting Results

                          It was a tale of two halves in Game 3 for total bettors and those playing the 'under' certainly weren't happy.

                          After the pair combined for just 94 points in the first 24 minutes, the offensive units came alive in the second-half and posted 59 and 68 points in the third and fourth quarter respectively.

                          Neither team shot from distance but the pair went a combined 41-of-48 from the charity stripe and those free points with no running clocks, 16 in the fourth quarter, are daggers for 'under' tickets.

                          Outcome:
                          Heat 112 Celtics 109

                          Game: Heat Win, Heat Cover (+3.5), Over 212
                          First Quarter: Heat Win (24-23), Heat Cover (+1), Under 52.5
                          First-Half: Heat Win (50-44), Heat Cover (+2), Under 105
                          Second-Half: Celtics Win (65-62), Heat Cover (+3.5), Over 105.5

                          Heat Betting Outlook

                          Inside the Stats


                          Bubble: 14-7 SU, 14-7 ATS, 10-10-1 O/U
                          Playoffs: 11-2 SU, 11-2 ATS, 6-7 O/U

                          Cover your eyes Heat fans if you have not seen Goran Dragic’s shooting numbers from last game because the 21 points he scored were not pretty. Dragic, who has been terrific for Miami in the playoffs thus far, seemed to be a little rusty coming off four days rest, going 8 for 21 from the field.

                          Jae Crowder also struggled in Game 4 from Miami, going 1 for 9 from the field and tallying just 3 points in the contest.

                          It all did not matter though because Herro had the game of his young life so far, going for 37 points, 6 rebounds, and 3 assists off the bench – the most points ever in a game by a Heat bench player in the post-season.

                          What Miami really had going for them on Wednesday night was its 2-3 defensive zone. The Celtics really wanted to emphasize a drive-and-kick scheme in Game 4, but the Heat defense did a phenomenal job of protecting the paint and closing out on shooters, giving Boston fits on offense for the whole contest.

                          Eric Spoelstra is not given enough credit for what he has done with his team. Look for the Heat to utilize that zone again on Friday night.

                          Celtics Betting Outlook

                          Inside the Stats


                          Bubble: 14-9 SU, 12-10-1 ATS, 8-13-1 O/U
                          Playoffs: 9-6 SU, 9-6 ATS, 4-10 O/U

                          This is tough because Boston has been favorites in every game so far in this series, and I have agreed with the oddsmakers on every occasion – just like I do here.

                          I really think the Celtics will win on Friday night and force a Game 6; maybe even a Game 7. Not if the Heat are going to continue to get explosive assistance from guys not named Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo though.

                          If you would have told me Butler would not be the best player on the floor for a single game of this series, I would have guessed there is no way the Heat are in contention to win this series – but here they are, rolling the third seed in the East.

                          The Celtics need to figure out a way to contain these Heat role players. Marcus Smart and Jaylen Brown have been great all year locking down the perimeter on defense. It all seems to have fallen apart here in this series though with Dragic and Herro exploding in their respective contests.

                          They figured out how to keep it under control in Game 3, and I think they will figure it out again on Friday night. Can they put together three consecutive wins though? Only time will tell. To start, they need to stop turning the ball over and drive into the paint more instead of settling for unassisted 3’s.

                          Key Injuries

                          Boston


                          SG Romeo Langford: Hip - Out

                          Miami

                          PF Gabe Vincent: Knee - Game Time Decision

                          PF Chris Silva: Pelvis - Game Time Decision

                          Romeo Langford is out for the season with a wrist injury after playing just a few minutes off the bench for the Celtics in this series.

                          Some may be asking, “Who is Langford?”

                          By trading down to acquire Tatum in the 2017 draft, Boston acquired Sacramento’s 2019 first round pick from Philadelphia. Miami and Sacramento both finished last season with 39-43 records, so essential
                          Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                          Comment


                          • #73
                            FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 25

                            GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

                            MIA at BOS 08:30 PM

                            BOS -3.0

                            U 213.0
                            Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                            Comment


                            • #74
                              NBA

                              Friday, September 25


                              ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                              Trend Report
                              ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                              Miami @ Boston
                              Miami
                              Miami is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
                              Miami is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
                              Boston
                              The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Boston's last 17 games
                              Boston is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Miami


                              ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                              Comment


                              • #75
                                COMPLETED PICKS

                                Past Completed Picks

                                DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD


                                09/25/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
                                09/24/2020 1-0-1 75.00% +500 Detail
                                09/23/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
                                09/22/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail
                                09/20/2020 0-2-0 0.00% -1100 Detail
                                09/19/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
                                09/18/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail
                                09/17/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
                                09/15/2020 1-3-0 25.00% -1150 Detail
                                09/13/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
                                09/12/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail
                                09/11/2020 3-0-1 87.50% +1500 Detail
                                09/10/2020 0-2-0 0.00% -1100 Detail
                                09/09/2020 1-3-0 25.00% -1150 Detail
                                09/08/2020 2-2-0 50.00% -100 Detail
                                09/07/2020 1-3-0 25.00% -1150 Detail
                                09/06/2020 1-3-0 25.00% -1150 Detail
                                09/05/2020 3-1-0 75.00% +950 Detail
                                09/04/2020 3-1-0 75.00% +950 Detail
                                09/03/2020 0-4-0 0.00% -2200 Detail
                                09/02/2020 1-3-0 25.00% -1150 Detail
                                09/01/2020 2-2-0 50.00% -100 Detail

                                Totals.......30-34-2........46.87%.....-37.00
                                Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                                Comment

                                Working...
                                X