The Bum's NBA Playoff Trends,News,Picks !

[StarDust Bum]

NBA public betting, line movement September 13
Patrick Everson

Jamal Murray and the Nuggets meet Kawhi Leonard and the Clippers in Game 6 of the Western Conference semifinals Sunday. The SuperBook has Los Angeles an 8.5-point favorite.

NBA betting odds are up for the lone playoff game on the Sunday schedule, Game 6 of the Western Conference semifinals. The Denver Nuggets look to once again extend this series against the Los Angeles Clippers.

The SuperBook provided insights on NBA opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting for Sunday’s matchup.

NBA line movement

Denver trailed Los Angeles 3-1 in this best-of-7 series and was down a dozen at halftime of Game 5 on Friday. But the Nuggets rallied to grab a 111-105 victory and push the Clippers to Sunday’s 1 p.m. ET Game 6. The Clippers opened -8 at The SuperBook and reached -9 Saturday night, but quickly ticked back to -8.5.

The total opened at 213.5 and moved to 214 late Saturday night.

NBA public betting

Perhaps surprisingly, the Consensus is showing strong support for Denver to cover the number in Game 7. Through Saturday night, the Nuggets were landing 69 percent of picks, and on the total, 67 percent of picks were on the Over.

On the total, 71 percent of early Consensus picks were on the Over.

[StarDust Bum]

725LA CLIPPERS -726 DENVER
LA CLIPPERS are 46-25 ATS (18.5 Units) in road games versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 110+ points/game in the last 3 seasons.




NBA
Dunkel

Sunday, September 13

LA Clippers @ Denver

Game 725-726
September 13, 2020 @ 1:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Clippers
128.357
Denver
114.596
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Clippers
by 14
211
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Clippers
by 8 1/2
214 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
LA Clippers
(-8 1/2); Under




NBA
Long Sheet

Sunday, September 13

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LA CLIPPERS (56 - 27) vs. DENVER (52 - 33) - 9/13/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA CLIPPERS are 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) in road games when leading in a playoff series since 1996.
LA CLIPPERS are 248-302 ATS (-84.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
LA CLIPPERS are 46-36 ATS (+6.4 Units) in all games this season.
LA CLIPPERS are 39-30 ATS (+6.0 Units) as a favorite this season.
LA CLIPPERS are 41-25 ATS (+13.5 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
LA CLIPPERS are 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) off a upset loss as a favorite this season.
LA CLIPPERS are 46-32 ATS (+10.8 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
LA CLIPPERS are 31-18 ATS (+11.2 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
LA CLIPPERS are 39-31 ATS (+4.9 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 8-7 against the spread versus LA CLIPPERS over the last 3 seasons
LA CLIPPERS is 8-7 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
8 of 13 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NBA

Sunday, September 13

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Trend Report
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LA Clippers @ Denver
LA Clippers
LA Clippers is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games on the road
LA Clippers is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games on the road
Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Denver's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Denver's last 6 games when playing at home against LA Clippers

[StarDust Bum]

SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 13

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

LAC at DEN 01:00 PM
DEN +8.5
O 214.5
+500 +500

[StarDust Bum]

COMPLETED PICKS

Past Completed Picks

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

09/13/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/12/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail
09/11/2020 3-0-1 87.50% +1500 Detail
09/10/2020 0-2-0 0.00% -1100 Detail
09/09/2020 1-3-0 25.00% -1150 Detail
09/08/2020 2-2-0 50.00% -100 Detail
09/07/2020 1-3-0 25.00% -1150 Detail
09/06/2020 1-3-0 25.00% -1150 Detail
09/05/2020 3-1-0 75.00% +950 Detail
09/04/2020 3-1-0 75.00% +950 Detail
09/03/2020 0-4-0 0.00% -2200 Detail
09/02/2020 1-3-0 25.00% -1150 Detail
09/01/2020 2-2-0 50.00% -100 Detail

Totals.......20-25-1........44.44%.....-37.50

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Tuesday's six-pack

Most popular picks this week in the Westgate SuperContest:
344— Buffalo +6.5- W
337— LA Rams +3- W
304— Atlanta +2.5- L
303— Tennessee -2.5L
280— Arizona +6.5- W
243— Pittsburgh -6- W

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 194,367
Please wear a mask when you go out.


**********

Armadillo: Tuesday's Den: Nobody asked me, but…….

13) Steelers 26, Giants 16:
— Pitt led 16-10 late in 3rd quarter; Giants had a 19-play drive that ended on an end zone INT.
— Last five years, Pittsburgh is 15-6 ATS against NFC teams.
— 11 of Steelers’ last 14 road openers stayed under the total.

— Barkley carried ball 15 times for 6 yards; he caught 6 passes for 60 yards.
— Giants started one drive on Pittsburgh’s 3-yard line but only kicked a FG.
— Giants started out 0-1 eight of last nine years.
— Giants are 4-14 ATS in last 18 games as a home underdog.

12) Titans 16, Denver 14
— Titans missed three FG’s and a PAT, but kicked 25-yard FG with 0:17 left for the win.
— The was the Oilers/Titans’ first win in Denver since 1980 (they also won a 1987 replacement game, but I don’t count that)
— Tennessee won seven of last eight road openers, covered nine of last 13.

— Broncos were stopped on downs on the Tennessee 1-yard line in 2nd quarter.
— Titans converted 7-16 on 3rd down, Denver only 3-9.
— Denver is 21-10-1 ATS in its last 32 home openers.

11) Why did the Houston Texans trade DeAndre Hopkins? Isn’t it important to keep your best players, especially when your young QB is growing into being an elite player? Going to be a lot of heat on Texans’ management if they regress on offense this season.

My high school Chemistry teacher was Bill Warner (no relation to Kurt); he was a great teacher, also a licensed pilot, a basketball referee, a brilliant guy. When something made no sense to him, he would call it “nonsensical” He is the only person I’ve ever heard use that word.

To me, the Texans trading Hopkins was nonsensical.

10) No NFL head coach has ever won Super Bowls with two different teams.

Only two guys (Bill Parcells, Mike Holmgren) made it to a Super Bowl with another team, after winning a title somewhere else.

9) NFL supposedly wants more scoring in their games, but two huge offensive plays in the last minute of close games were nullified Sunday by offensive pass interference calls. If you want more points to be scored, why would you point the officials towards calling more offensive PI?

Bengals scored a TD with 0:06 left that was negated; Dallas completed a long pass that would’ve set up a game-tying field goal. Wide receivers pushing off has been overlooked for decades; Michael Irvin is in the Hall of Fame because of that.

The NFL makes their rules, the officials just enforce them; I don’t understand this apparent change in direction.

8) Last 16 years, Cleveland Browns are 0-15-1 in their season openers; they threw 10 passes to Odell Beckham Sunday in Baltimore, but completed only three of them.

7) Mike D’Antoni’s NBA coaching record: 16 years, 672-527 in regular season games, 54-56 in playoff games. If he still wants to coach, hard to believe someone won’t hire him.

6) Denver Nuggets are first NBA team ever to have four straight playoff series go 7 games.

5) Overlooked with all the football Sunday was Alec Mills throwing a no-hitter for the Cubs in Milwaukee, in his 15th career start.

Earlier this season, Lucas Giolito threw a no-hitter for the White Sox; this is the first season ever that both Chicago franchises had a pitcher throw a no-hitter in the same season.

4) Over the last 21 years, Washington Redskins have started 13 different quarterbacks in their season opener. This isn’t a good thing.

3) Big day for Mets fans; the Wilpon family and Saul Katz have agreed to sell the Mets to billionaire hedge fund manager Steve Cohen, which has to help the team a lot. The Wilpons were horrendous owners.

Trivia: If you watch Billions on Showtime, Damian Lewis’ character Bobby Axelrod is loosely based on Cohen. He is a rich guy, really rich.

2) Atlanta Braves signed Pablo Sandoval to a minor league deal, after the Giants released him. Sandoval could be a DH for the Braves down the stretch.

1) If the baseball playoffs started today (they don’t):
AL East: Tampa Bay, Toronto
AL Central: Chicago, Minnesota
AL West: Oakland, Houston
AL wild cards: Cleveland, New York

NL East: Atlanta, Miami
NL Central: Chicago, St Louis
NL West: Los Angeles, San Diego
NL wild cards: Philadelphia, San Francisco

[StarDust Bum]

NBA public betting, line movement September 15
Patrick Everson

Kawhi Leonard and the Clippers aim to avoid a big collapse against Michael Porter Jr. and the Nuggets in Game 7 Tuesday. The SuperBook opened Los Angeles -6. 5 and moved to -7.5.

After a rare day off, NBA betting odds are on the board and getting action for a pair of Tuesday playoff games. The Los Angeles Clippers hope to finally put away the Denver Nuggets in Game 7 of the Western Conference semifinals, preceded by Game 1 of the Eastern Conference finals between the Miami Heat and Boston Celtics.

The SuperBook provided insights on NBA opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting for Tuesday’s matchups.

NBA line movement

Denver already rallied from down 3-1 once in the NBA playoffs, beating the Utah Jazz in seven games, and will try to do it again in a 9 p.m. ET tipoff against Los Angeles. In Game 7 Sunday, the Nuggets trailed by 16 at halftime, but blew out the Clippers 64-35 in the second half to post a 111-98 victory.

For Game 7, The SuperBook opened the Clippers -6.5 and moved to -7.5, where the line remained through Monday night. The total opened at 208, dropped to 206.5, then rebounded to 207.5.

Meanwhile, Miami has been on a tear the entire playoffs, going 8-1 SU and ATS while sweeping the Indiana Pacers, then dumping the top-seeded Milwaukee Bucks in five games. So once again, the Heat are well-rested, having not played since Sept. 8. Boston had to duke it out over seven games with the Toronto Raptors, clinching the series with a 92-87 win Friday.

The SuperBook opened the Celtics -1.5 and moved to -2 for a couple of hours over the weekend, then went back to -1.5. The total opened at 211.5 and is down to 209.5 for a 6:30 p.m. ET start.

NBA public betting

The Consensus shows point-spread bettors have faith that the Nuggets can at least cover, with Denver getting 63 percent of early picks against the Clippers. And through Monday night, 76 percent of picks were on the Over, with the bulk of those picks on the current total of 207.5.

Heat-Celtics was drawing two-way play in the Consensus, with Boston attracting 52 percent of picks and the Under getting 57 percent of picks.


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729DENVER -730 LA CLIPPERS
LA CLIPPERS are 46-26 ATS (17.4 Units) in road games versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 110+ points/game in the last 3 seasons.

731MIAMI -732 BOSTON
BOSTON is 52-28 ATS (21.2 Units) versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game in the last 3 seasons.




NBA
Dunkel

Tuesday, September 15

Miami @ Boston

Game 731-732
September 15, 2020 @ 6:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Miami
128.470
Boston
123.645
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Miami
by 5
207
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Boston
by 1 1/2
210 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Miami
(+1 1/2); Under

Denver @ LA Clippers

Game 729-730
September 15, 2020 @ 9:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Denver
122.831
LA Clippers
120.123
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Denver
by 2 1/2
211
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Clippers
by 7
208
Dunkel Pick:
Denver
(+7); Over




NBA
Long Sheet

Tuesday, September 15

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DENVER (53 - 33) vs. LA CLIPPERS (56 - 28) - 9/15/2020, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 5-18 ATS (-14.8 Units) in road games after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
LA CLIPPERS are 46-37 ATS (+5.3 Units) in all games this season.
LA CLIPPERS are 39-31 ATS (+4.9 Units) as a favorite this season.
LA CLIPPERS are 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) on Tuesday nights this season.
LA CLIPPERS are 41-26 ATS (+12.4 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
LA CLIPPERS are 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) off a upset loss as a favorite this season.
LA CLIPPERS are 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more this season.
LA CLIPPERS are 46-33 ATS (+9.7 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
LA CLIPPERS are 31-19 ATS (+10.1 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
LA CLIPPERS are 57-38 ATS (+15.2 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
LA CLIPPERS are 248-303 ATS (-85.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 9-7 against the spread versus LA CLIPPERS over the last 3 seasons
LA CLIPPERS is 8-8 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
9 of 14 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MIAMI (52 - 30) vs. BOSTON (56 - 27) - 9/15/2020, 6:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BOSTON is 48-31 ATS (+13.9 Units) in all games this season.
BOSTON is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) when playing with 3 or more days rest over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) after a division game this season.
BOSTON is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
BOSTON is 29-13 ATS (+14.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
BOSTON is 39-27 ATS (+9.3 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
BOSTON is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
BOSTON is 37-26 ATS (+8.4 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
BOSTON is 23-14 ATS (+7.6 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
MIAMI is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in all playoff games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 6-4 against the spread versus BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON is 6-4 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NBA

Tuesday, September 15

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Trend Report
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Miami @ Boston
Miami
Miami is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Miami is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Boston
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Boston's last 9 games
Boston is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Miami

Denver @ LA Clippers
Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Denver's last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Denver's last 6 games when playing LA Clippers
LA Clippers
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of LA Clippers's last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Clippers's last 6 games when playing Denver


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Game 7 Odds: Nuggets vs. Clippers
Michael Crosson

The second round of the NBA Playoffs in the Western Conference will conclude on Tuesday night as the No. 3 Denver Nuggets will meet in a decisive Game 7 matchup against the No. 2 Los Angeles Clippers.

Betting Resources

Matchup: Western Conference Game 7
Second Round: Series tied 3-3
Venue: ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex
Location: Orlando, Florida
Date: Tuesday, Sept. 15, 2020
Time: 9:00 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN

The Nuggets have outscored the Clippers by a combined 47 points in the second-half of the last two games in their 2nd round series. (AP)

Line Movements

The Denver Nuggets, who are no strangers to win-or-go-home contests in the bubble, will head into their third consecutive game facing elimination as seven and a half-point underdogs against the second-seeded Los Angeles Clippers, despite knocking off Doc Rivers’ team in back-to-back matchups prior to Tuesday night.

The ‘over-under’ for Tuesday’s matchup opened around OU 211.5 at most books, but we have seen that number take steep fall down to OU 207.5 as tickets continue to rain in on the ‘under’ – typical for almost any Game 7 affair.

Spread: Los Angeles -7.5
Money-Line: Los Angeles -320 Denver +260
Total: 207.5
Updated Series Price: Los Angeles -310, Denver +260

Game 6 Recap

It feels like the Nuggets have been on the ropes since Game 4 of this series, but they just keep on putting on outstanding displays of resiliency time-after-time again.

In Game 6, it was on the shoulders of the Joker, Nikola Jokic (34 points, 14 rebounds, 7 assists), who led his team back from a 16-point halftime deficit to stun the Clippers, 111-98 and force a Game 7 on Sunday afternoon.

Denver scored a modest 64 points in the second half of Game 6, which is the kind of performance they will likely need to compete with LAC in the series finale.

However, the real story was full blown shooting collapse of Kawhi Leonard and Paul George on Sunday, as the all-star duo shot a combined 6-for-21 from the field in the final two stanzas of the Clippers’ loss, contributing heavily to the LAC’s 10-for-38 as a unit.

The Claw says his team just went “cold” down the stretch of Sunday afternoon’s contest – he will hope for him and his team to heat back up again before Tuesday night’s tilt.

Game 6 Betting Results

Bettors backing the Clippers for the second straight game got another rough taste of reality as L.A. built a big lead before collapsing again.

Denver outscored Los Angeles by 29 points in the second-half and that followed the Nuggets outscoring the Clips by 18 points in the second-half of Game 5.

Outcome: Nuggets 111 Clippers 98

Game: Nuggets Win, Nuggets Cover (+8.5), Under (214.5)
First Quarter: Clippers Win (34-26), Clippers Cover (+3), Over (54.5)
First-Half: Clippers Win (63-47), Clippers Cover (-4.5), Over (108.5)
Second-Half: Nuggets Win (64-35), Nuggets Cover (-0.5), Under (105.5)

Denver Betting Outlook

Inside the Stats

Bubble: 10-11 SU, 13-8 ATS, 13-7-1 O/U
Playoffs: 7-6 SU, 9-4 ATS, 5-7-1 O/U

They say, “The most dangerous lead in sports is a 2-0 lead,” but it is starting to seem like the Nuggets prefer being down 3-1, as Mike Malone’s team has now officially rallied back from its second straight two-game deficit in these playoffs to force another Game 7.

Either that, or they just are very fond of seven-game series, as Tuesday night will mark the fourth straight playoff series for Denver that has extended to its seventh contest.

The first of those four series took place last year and ended with the Nuggets advancing past the seventh-seeded Spurs in an exhausting opening round series to kick off last year’s playoffs, which ultimately led to Jokic and company running out of steam in their second round series finale against the Blazers.

Consecutive seven-game playoff series are known to be physically AND emotionally draining for athletes – especially in an environment like the Disney bubble. Tuesday night should be a great test to see what this young Denver team is really made of.

Los Angeles Betting Outlook

Inside the Stats

Bubble: 12-8 SU, 12-8 ATS, 10-9-1 O/U
Playoffs: 7-5 SU, 6-6 ATS, 5-6-1 O/U

Clippers fans are being driven up all wall by their team in this series and I cannot blame them, as Los Angeles has been in a position to close out the Nuggets in each of its last two contests and has failed in both.

Now LAC finds itself in a Game 7 matchup, squaring off with Murray and Jokic, who both have the potential to get as hot as anybody in the league and win a basketball game.

The Clippers are the overwhelming favorite to win this series finale and they should be based off their superior talent-level and offensive firepower.

Just ask Donovan Mitchell and the Jazz though – This is just not a spot you prefer to be in if you are Coach Doc Rivers right now trying to establish yourself as a Western Conference powerhouse.

Key Injuries

Denver

SF Vlatko Cancar: Foot - Game Time Decision
SF Will Barton: Knee - Out

Los Angeles

None

Nothing new to add onto the injury report for Game 7 as Vlatko Cancar and Will Barton remain the only players expected to be absent from either side on Tuesday night – the only thing questionable heading into this series finale is what a three-game implosion would mean moving forward for a Clippers team that was originally supposed to be destined for a blockbuster LA vs LA Western Conference Finals.

[StarDust Bum]

TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 15

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

MIA at BOS 06:30 PM
MIA +1.5
U 208.5
+500 +500

DEN at LAC 09:00 PM
LAC -7.5
O 208.5
+500 +500

[StarDust Bum]

COMPLETED PICKS

Past Completed Picks

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

09/15/2020 1-3-0 25.00% -1150 Detail
09/13/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/12/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail
09/11/2020 3-0-1 87.50% +1500 Detail
09/10/2020 0-2-0 0.00% -1100 Detail
09/09/2020 1-3-0 25.00% -1150 Detail
09/08/2020 2-2-0 50.00% -100 Detail
09/07/2020 1-3-0 25.00% -1150 Detail
09/06/2020 1-3-0 25.00% -1150 Detail
09/05/2020 3-1-0 75.00% +950 Detail
09/04/2020 3-1-0 75.00% +950 Detail
09/03/2020 0-4-0 0.00% -2200 Detail
09/02/2020 1-3-0 25.00% -1150 Detail
09/01/2020 2-2-0 50.00% -100 Detail

Totals.......21-28-1........42.85%.....-49.00

[StarDust Bum]

Wednesday’s 6-pack

Odds to win the US Open golf tourney this week:

8-1— Dustin Johnson

9-1— Jon Rahm

14-1— McIlroy, Schauffele, Thomas

16-1— Collin Morikawa

25-1— Bryson DeChambeau, Webb Simpson

30-1— Matsuyama, Fleetwood, Day, Reed, Finau


Americans who have died from COVID-19: 195,354
Please wear a mask when you go out.

Quote of the Day
“It begins and ends with the general manager. You can talk to me all day long. I personally wouldn’t know what coach to hire. That’s why you have a basketball operations team that’s made of a half a dozen people that use all kinds of analytics and experience. They’ll make a recommendation to me. They do about everything. I’m the sign-off guy. That’s it.

“I wouldn’t know how to interview a basketball coach. You want me to go interview a CEO for a company, I’m the first one to tell you I think [I’m] better than anybody else. To be successful in business, and I say this in my book, you better know what you know and you better know what you don’t know. I surely know what I don’t know when it comes to basketball.”
Houston Rockets’ owner Tilman Fertitta

Wednesday’s quiz
Who coached the Steelers before Mike Tomlin?

Tuesday’s quiz
Joe Girardi has managed the Marlins, Bronx, Philadelphia.

Monday’s quiz
Rams’ owner Stan Kroenke also owns the NBA’s Denver Nuggets and the NHL’s Colorado Avalanche.


************

Wednesday’s Den: Mid-week musings……

13) ESPN finally found its Monday Night Football crew; Steve Levy, Brian Greise, Louis Riddick are an excellent 3-man team. Smart, unassuming, easy to listen to.

12) Baseball announced its playoff plan; AL bubble in California, NL bubble in Texas, no days off in the division or league championship series, which is a big deal. Pitching depth is going to be a lot more important than usual. Aces will only pitch once in a best-of-5 series, unless they pitch a game on short rest.

Air quality in southern California could be become a problem; I’m assuming the backup plan is Arizona’s dome, but that wasn’t mentioned Monday.

World Series will be in the Rangers’ new domed stadium in Arlington.

11) Nuggets 104, Clippers 89 (Denver wins 4-3)
— Denver held LA to 33 points in 2nd half.
— Nuggets were down 3-1 in both series this year, but won both.
— Jokic had 16 points, 22 rebounds, 13 assists. Wow.
— In their 50-year history, Clippers are now 0-8 in games where they had a chance to reach the conference final.

10) Cincinnati Bengals’ kicker Randy Bullock missed a game-tying 31-yard field goal at the end of Sunday’s 16-13 loss to the Chargers; Bullock then grabbed his leg— a calf strain was given as the reason. Bengals need a new kicker.

Problem is, Cincinnati plays on Thursday this week and if you bring someone into Ohio from another state, there is a 72-hour thing because of COVID, so the Bengals quickly scooped up kicker Austin Seibert, who was shown the door by the Browns after he missed a PAT and a field goal in Cleveland’s 38-6 loss in Baltimore Sunday.

Seibert will see his old friends Thursday, when the Bengals visit Cleveland.

9) Unusual fact: Five QB’s whose team won in Week 1 were led in rushing by their QB. More and more teams are going to running back-by-committee.

I cringe every time a quarterback takes a hit while running; they’re very valuable players, so there is a fine line between a running QB making his offense more explosive while also risking the whole thing blowing up, if that QB gets hurt.

8) NFL officials called two huge offensive pass interference penalties Sunday, but they only called offensive holding 18 times in 16 games last week, so that’s an improvement. Thats the 2nd-fewest amount of Week 1 holding calls since 2001.

7) Why some teams don’t want their head coach also being a coordinator:

Denver Broncos totally screwed up clock management in the last minute Monday night; once Tennessee got within field goal range, Denver had to use its timeouts, to preserve some time for their offense if the Titans took the lead, which they did.

Head coach Vic Fangio also coordinates Denver’s defense, and that was what he was thinking about while Tennessee was driving at the end. Game management was botched, depriving the Broncos of a last-gasp chance at a win- remember, the game was in Denver, so longer field goals are more possible.

6) Orlando’s NBA bubble on the Disney grounds will also host eight early season college basketball tournament:

— Champions Classic, Jimmy V Classic
— Wooden Legacy, preseason NIT
— Orlando Invitational, Charleston Classic
— Myrtle Beach invitational, Diamond Head Classic

5) Over the last 10 years, when NFL teams went for it on 4th and 1, they got the first down 64% of the time.

4) Tennessee Titans missed three field goals and an extra point Monday night; last year, they made only 44.4% of their FG’s, by far the worst %age in the NFL. 2nd-worst %age last year was the Jets, who made 67.9% of their field goals.

3) My preference for the NFL schedule would be Monday night doubleheaders every week but no Thursday games, except for Week 1 and Thanksgiving Day. Football wasn’t meant to be played on three days’ rest.

2) Michael O’Keefe, the actor who played Danny Noonan in Caddyshack 40 years ago, caddied for club pro Danny Balin this week at practice rounds for the US Open.

1) If you baseball playoffs started today (they don’t):
AL East: Tampa Bay, New York
AL Central: Chicago, Minnesota
AL West: Oakland, Houston
AL wild cards: Cleveland, Toronto

NL East: Atlanta, Miami
NL Central: Chicago, St Louis
NL West: Los Angeles, San Diego
NL wild cards: Philadelphia, San Francisco

[StarDust Bum]

Work joyfully and peacefully, knowing that right thoughts and right efforts will inevitably bring about right results.




Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

MLB leaders in RBI:
49— Jose Abreu, CWS
46— Freddie Freeman, Atl
45— Luke Voit, NYY
44— Marcell Ozuna, Atl
41— Manny Machado, SD
40— Mike Trout LAA, Fernando Tatis SD
Americans who have died from COVID-19: 196,103
Please wear a mask when you go out.


**********

Armadillo: Thursday's Den: 13 athletes who excelled at more than one sport

(listed alphabetically)
— Danny Ainge— Played 14 years in the NBA, after a great career at BYU. He also hit .220 in 211 games over three years for the Toronto Blue Jays.

— Jim Brown— One of the best running backs in NFL history, he led the NFL in rushing in 8 of his 9 seasons. Brown also played basketball, ran track, and was a great lacrosse player while in college at Syracuse.

— Wilt Chamberlain— Scored 31,419 points in his NBA career; once scored 100 points in a game- he averaged over 30 ppg for his career. He preferred track in high school, high jumping, long jumping, running the quarter-mile and half-mile events while also throwing the shot put.

When he was in the NBA, Wilt got annoyed that he was criticized for shooting too much so the next season (1967-68) he led the league in assists.

— Bob Hayes— Played wide receiver for the Dallas Cowboys for 11 years; he also won two gold medals in track at the 1964 Olympics. Hayes caught 371 passes for 20 yards/catch in his NFL career, scoring 73 touchdowns.

— Bo Jackson— Was a great running back at Auburn, and played 38 games for the Raiders, averaging 5.4 yards/carry. He played eight years in the major leagues, hitting 141 homers- he played the last two years with an artificial hip.

— Michael Jordan— Not much to add here; won a national title at North Carolina, six NBA titles with the Chicago Bulls, and out of nowhere, he hit .202 for the AA Birmingham Barons in 1994, as an outfielder, during his sabbatical from the NBA.

Hitting .202 doesn’t sound like much, but I was an official scorer for two years at the AA level; there are guys who were career baseball players who didn’t hit .200 at that level. Jordan also stole 30 bases that season.

— Kenny Lofton— Played 17 years in the big leagues, with a .372 on-base %age and 622 stolen bases— hell of a ballplayer, a 6-time All Star. Lofton also played college basketball at Arizona; he is one of only two people EVER to play in the Final Four and World Series.

— Nate Robinson— Played 11 years in the NBA, he won the Slam Dunk title three times even though he is only 5-9; he scored 11 ppg for his professional career. Robinson originally went to U of Washington on a football scholarship; he played football for the Huskies as a freshman, but gave football up after that season.

— Bill Russell— Played 13 seasons in the NBA, won 11 titles, lost in the finals another year. San Francisco won consecutive NCAA titles with Russell as their center in 1955-56. Russell also was a high jumper at USF; at one time, he was ranked as the 7th-best high jumper in the world, but had to choose between track and basketball as far as the Olympics went- he chose basketball.

— Deion Sanders— Played 14 years in the NFL for five teams; he picked off 53 passes in his pro career, running back nine of them for touchdowns. He also played baseball, playing nine years in the major leagues, hitting .263 for four teams, with 186 stolen bases.

— Tim Stoddard— First person ever to play in a Final Four and a World Series; he was a starting forward on NC State’s championship team in 1974. He also pitched in the major leagues for 13 years, winning a World Series ring with the ’83 Orioles. He also got a hit in his only at-bat in a World Series game.

— Charlie Ward— He won the 1993 Heisman Trophy, leading Florida State to their first-ever national title on the gridiron. Ward also played 11 years in the NBA for three teams, mostly the Knicks, scoring 6.3 ppg for his career.

— Dave Winfield— Played both baseball/basketball for the Minnesota Gophers; his college basketball coach was Bill Musselman, who later coached in the NBA. Winfield was also drafted by the NFL’s Vikings, but he never played college football.

Winfield was a great baseball player; he played 22 years in the majors, hit .283 with 465 career homers and an on-base %age of .353.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA public betting, line movement September 17
Patrick Everson

The Heat’s impressive playoff work aside, DraftKings opened Game 2 at Celtics -2 and moved to -2.5 early Wednesday. Tipoff is at 7 p.m. ET Thursday.

NBA betting odds are back on the board after a one-day respite, with Game 2 of the Eastern Conference finals on the Thursday playoff schedule. The red-hot Miami Heat aim to take a 2-0 lead in their best-of-7 series against the Boston Celtics.

DraftKings Sportsbook provided insights on NBA opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting for Thursday’s matchup.

NBA line movement

Miami is a scorching 9-1 SU and ATS in the NBA playoffs, including a 117-114 overtime victory against Boston in Game 1 on Tuesday. The Heat’s impressive playoff work aside, DraftKings opened Game 2 at Celtics -2 and moved to -2.5 early Wednesday. Tipoff is at 7 p.m. ET Thursday.

DraftKings opened the total at 208 and moved to 208.5 early Wednesday.

NBA public betting

Ticket count at DraftKings is running almost even, with a slight lean toward the Celtics at 52 percent. But the money is a little more impressed by the Heat’s Game 1 victory, with Miami getting 61 percent of point-spread cash as of Wednesday afternoon.

The public is also hitting the Over early, at 78 percent of tickets and 76 percent of money. Moneyline wagering has two-way action, with 54 percent of bets on Miami and 55 percent of money on Boston.

*************************************

701MIAMI -702 BOSTON
BOSTON is 52-29 ATS (20.1 Units) versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game in the last 3 seasons.




NBA
Dunkel

Thursday, September 17

Miami @ Boston

Game 701-702
September 17, 2020 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Miami
123.560
Boston
128.555
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Boston
by 5
205
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Boston
by 2
209 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Boston
(-2); Under




NBA
Long Sheet

Thursday, September 17

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MIAMI (53 - 30) vs. BOSTON (56 - 28) - 9/17/2020, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 8-17 ATS (-10.7 Units) in road games after scoring 115 points or more this season.
BOSTON is 48-32 ATS (+12.8 Units) in all games this season.
BOSTON is 158-116 ATS (+30.4 Units) in road games revenging a home loss vs opponent since 1996.
BOSTON is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
BOSTON is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in road games off a upset loss as a favorite this season.
BOSTON is 29-14 ATS (+13.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
BOSTON is 39-28 ATS (+8.2 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
BOSTON is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
BOSTON is 37-27 ATS (+7.3 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
BOSTON is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
MIAMI is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in all playoff games this season.
MIAMI is 44-28 ATS (+13.2 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 7-4 against the spread versus BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON is 6-5 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
5 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




NBA

Thursday, September 17

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Miami @ Boston
Miami
Miami is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Miami is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Boston
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Boston's last 10 games
Boston is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Miami

[StarDust Bum]

Game 2 Odds: Heat vs. Celtics
Michael Crosson

The Eastern Conference Finals will continue Thursday from the NBA Bubble in Orlando, Florida and the Boston Celtics will look to rebound after dropping an overtime setback to the Miami Heat in Game 1 on Tuesday.

Betting Resources

Matchup: Eastern Conference Finals Game 2
Series: Miami Heat lead 1-0
Venue: ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex
Location: Orlando, Florida
Date: Thursday, Sept. 17, 2020
Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN

Miami Heat rookie Tyler Herro almost recorded a triple-double in Game 1, finishing with 12 points, 11 rebounds and nine assists. (AP)

Line Movements

The red-hot Miami Heat pulled off the 117-114 overtime upset in Game 1, but that has not swayed the oddsmakers prior to the second contest of this series as the Celtics still head into Game 2 as two and a half-point favorites, already trailing Miami 1-0.

It has been a bad month to be an ‘over’ bettor in the 2020 NBA Playoffs so far, as the ‘under’ has cashed in 19 out of 26 post-season games inside the bubble.

Game 1 between the Celtics and Heat was not one of those games though, as these teams combined for 212 points in regulation – securing ‘over 209’ before they tacked on almost 20 more in the OT stanza. The line for Thursday night’s tilt fallen a little bit though, siting at a tempting line of OU 208.5.

Spread: Boston -2.5
Money-Line: Boston -140, Miami +120
Total: 208.5
Updated Series Price: Miami -150, Boston +130

Game 1 Recap

It sure is a shame that there are no fans present to witness these grueling playoff battles in the bubble, because there is no doubt Boston’s TD Garden would have been rocking for Game 1 on Tuesday night.

It could have even been just what some of the Celtics’ young stars needed to push them over their competitive edge in overtime during their first battle with Miami in these Eastern Conference Finals.

No complaints from Brad Stevens’ corner though as Jayson Tatum and Marcus Smart combined for 56 points on 45% shooting in their 2020 ECF debuts – putting their team in a reasonable position to extend/win the game by closing the gap to a two-point differential in OT with just 12 ticks remaining on the clock.

Tatum had his game-tying dunk attempt emphatically denied at the rim by Bam Adebayo though, earning Erik Spoelstra’s team its first victory in an Eastern Conference Finals matchup since the LeBron James years (2014).

Game 1 Betting Results

Outcome: Heat 117 Celtics 114 (OT)

Game: Heat Win, Heat Cover (+2), Over 2019
First Quarter: Celtics Win (26-18), Celtics Cover (-0.5), Under 54.5
First-Half: Tied (55-55), Heat Cover (+0.5), Over 108
Second-Half: Heat Win (62-59), Heat Cover (+1.5), Over 103.5

Heat Betting Outlook

Inside the Stats

Overall: 12-6 SU, 12-6 ATS, 8-9-1 O/U
Bubble: 9-1 SU, 9-1 ATS, 4-6 O/U

Miami came out of the gates flat and it looked like the Celtics might run away with the opening game of this series in the early-goings when they jumped out to a 26-18 first quarter lead. However, that shifted rather quickly as the Heat lit up the scoreboard in the second stanza for 37 points on 68.2 percent shooting to close out the half.

The Heat managed to post another insane offensive column of basketball in the fourth quarter of Game 1, racking up 35 points on 71.4 percent shooting to force OT in the final stanza of the contest.

The Heat needed every bit of the 72 points they dropped in the second and fourth quarters to force overtime in series opener, PLUS and insane block from Adebayo at the buzzer to seal the deal.

Not to rain on Miami’s parade here, but they cannot afford to ride the roller coaster in this series like they did in Game 1. The Heat need to string together four good quarters of basketball in Game 2 if they want to take a two-game advantage over a Boston team that has been devastatingly consistent this season. And somebody tell Duncan Robinson to stay out of foul trouble, holy cow.

Celtics Betting Outlook

Inside the Stats

Overall: 13-6 SU, 11-7-1 ATS, 6-11-2 O/U
Bubble: 8-4 SU, 8-4 ATS, 3-9 O/U

No need to panic if you are a Celtics series bettor following their loss on Tuesday night, but if Boston fails to get over the hump again in Game 2 then it might be time to admit that Jimmy Butler and company are just on a magical run and may need to avoid betting against them at all costs for the near future.

I do not believe that is the kind of situation we are dealing with here though, as the heroes in Game 1 for Miami were Goran Dragic and Jae Crowder who went for a combined 51 points in the contest on 60% shooting.

The Dragic-Crowder-Butler trio shot a combined 10 of 18 from downtown in the contest, and I have a tough time believing they are going to be able to replicate those numbers over the course of a series.

I think Boston ultimately comes out on top in this series, but there is no doubt the Heat will make me eat those words if their role-players keep burying 3’s at a 55% clip the rest of the way.

Key Injuries

Miami

PF Chris Silva: Pelvis - Out

Boston

SG Javonte Green: Knee - Game Time Decision
SF Gordon Hayward: Ankle - Game Time Decision

Celtics forward, Gordon Hayward, has been upgraded to a “game-time decision” for Boston’s Game 2 tilt with the Heat on Thursday night.

The Butler product has not played since injuring his ankle in Game 1 of their opening round playoff series with the 76ers – his return should add some much needed size and scoring depth to Celtic rotation moving forward in this series.

[StarDust Bum]

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 17

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

MIA at BOS 07:00 PM
MIA +3.0
O 208.0
+500 +500

[StarDust Bum]

COMPLETED PICKS

Past Completed Picks

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

09/17/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/15/2020 1-3-0 25.00% -1150 Detail
09/13/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/12/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail
09/11/2020 3-0-1 87.50% +1500 Detail
09/10/2020 0-2-0 0.00% -1100 Detail
09/09/2020 1-3-0 25.00% -1150 Detail
09/08/2020 2-2-0 50.00% -100 Detail
09/07/2020 1-3-0 25.00% -1150 Detail
09/06/2020 1-3-0 25.00% -1150 Detail
09/05/2020 3-1-0 75.00% +950 Detail
09/04/2020 3-1-0 75.00% +950 Detail
09/03/2020 0-4-0 0.00% -2200 Detail
09/02/2020 1-3-0 25.00% -1150 Detail
09/01/2020 2-2-0 50.00% -100 Detail

Totals.......22-29-1........43.13%.....-49.50

[StarDust Bum]

Friday’s 6-pack

NFL QB’s who got to 10,000 passing yards the fastest:[/B]

36 games— Kurt Warner
37— Matthew Stafford
38— Dan Marino
38— Andrew Luck
38— Marc Bulger
32— Patrick Mahomes has 9,623 passing yards in 32 games; he will be on top of this list in a couple of weeks.


Americans who have died from COVID-19: 197,244
Please wear a mask when you go out.


Quote of the Day
“This isn’t about zones and defenses and offenses and stuff like that. We’ve just got to be better.”
Brad Stevens

Friday’s quiz
Who played QB for the Cleveland Browns, the last time they played in a playoff game?

Thursday’s quiz
Cal-Irvine’s sports teams are known as the Anteaters.

Wednesday’s quiz
Bill Cowher coached the Steelers before Mike Tomlin.


********************************

Friday’s Den: Wrapping up a busy Thursday

13) White Sox 4, Twins 3— Chicago clinches its first playoff berth since 2008.

6th inning of this game, Josh Donaldson was carping about balls/strikes during his at-bat, then he hits a home run to put the Twins up 3-2. When he rounds the bases, he kicks dirt on home plate as he scores as the ump kicks him out. Not good.

Twins are fighting like hell to make the playoffs; you can’t get kicked out of a one-run game.

12) Dodgers were the first team to clinch a playoff berth; they’re 35-15 this season.

11) Browns 35, Bengals 30:
— Burrow was 37-61 for 316 yards, most passes a rookie has ever completed in a game.
— Bengals had 30 first downs, converted 8-18 on 3rd down.
— Last three years, Cincy is 15-8 ATS as a road underdog; over is 11-2 in their last 13 road openers.
— Bengals went 5-5 going for it on 4th down.

— Chubb ran for 124 yards, two TD’s for the Browns.
— Cleveland scored TD’s on three of first four drives.
— Browns allowed 68 points in splitting their first two games.

10) Sean McVay is in his 4th year as an NFL head coach; he went to college at Miami OH, but he is four years younger than another Miami alum, Ben Roethlisberger, who is still playing ball. McVay is 34, Big Ben is 38.

9) When the Clippers ousted Dallas in the first round of the playoffs, they shot 47% on 3-point shots from the corner, which is exceptional.

Problem is, they got to Game 7 against Denver in the 2nd round and went 0-12 on those corner jumpers behind the arc. 0-12 doesn’t butter the biscuit.

8) An adventurous gambler wagered $200,000 on the Lakers to win the NBA title; if the Lakers win it all, the bettor pockets $121,212.

7) Heat 106, Celtics 101 (Miami leads 2-0)
— Miami was down 13 at the half, but held Boston to 41 points in 2nd half, after Celtics scored 60 in first half.
— Miami was +11 (20-9) in turnovers.
— Crowder/Robinson took 24 shots; 22 of them were 3’s.

6) This weekend’s Mariners-Padres series was moved to San Diego, because of the poor air quality in Seattle.

5) Angels’ rookie 1B Jared Walsh has scored a run/driven in a run in nine consecutive games, the longest streak like that by a rookie in baseball history.

4) Saw a film clip Thursday of Colorado Rockies’ manager Bud Black giving up Reggie Jackson’s 500th home run in 1984, when Jackson was playing for the Angels. Black was a good pitcher, with a 121-116 career record.

Angels’ manager then was John McNamara; two years later, he was Boston’s manager when they lost the World Series in seven games to the Mets. He was also Jackson’s manager in Oakland in 1970, when Jackson got involved in a squabble with owner Charlie Finley, the team unraveled and McNamara got fired.

3) How would you like to be the guy who works for the Diamondbacks who advised them to sign Madison Bumgarner to a 5-year, $85M contract? You’d have to be a little bit queasy about you job.

Bumgarner is only 31, but he’s got a lot of miles on that arm; he’s thrown 1,877 regular season and 101 more in the postseason. This year, he is 0-4, 8.53 in seven starts. Not good.

2) Get well soon to Texas Rangers’ TV analyst CJ Nitkowski, who tested positive for COVID; Ranger games are fun to listen to- Nitkowski is a good analyst.

1) If you baseball playoffs started today (they don’t):
AL East: Tampa Bay, New York
AL Central: Chicago, Minnesota
AL West: Oakland, Houston
AL wild cards: Cleveland, Toronto

NL East: Atlanta, Miami
NL Central: Chicago, Cincinnati
NL West: Los Angeles, San Diego
NL wild cards: Philadelphia, San Francisco