Cnotes College Hoops Picks,Trends News 2018-2918 !

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB
Dunkel

Saturday, March 30


Texas Tech @ Gonzaga

Game 683-684
March 30, 2019 @ 6:09 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Texas Tech
78.803
Gonzaga
80.392
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Gonzaga
by 1 1/2
129
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Gonzaga
by 4 1/2
137
Dunkel Pick:
Texas Tech
(+4 1/2); Under

Purdue @ Virginia

Game 681-682
March 30, 2019 @ 8:49 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Purdue
75.175
Virginia
77.209
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Virginia
by 2
129
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Virginia
by 4 1/2
126
Dunkel Pick:
Purdue
(+4 1/2); Over




NCAAB
Long Sheet

Saturday, March 30

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PURDUE (26 - 9) vs. VIRGINIA (32 - 3) - 3/30/2019, 8:49 PM
Top Trends for this game.
VIRGINIA is 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) in all games this season.
VIRGINIA is 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) in all lined games this season.
VIRGINIA is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) as a favorite this season.
VIRGINIA is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in road games on Saturday games over the last 2 seasons.
VIRGINIA is 11-4 ATS (+6.6 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
VIRGINIA is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
VIRGINIA is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) after allowing 60 points or less this season.
VIRGINIA is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
PURDUE is 27-14 ATS (+11.6 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons.
PURDUE is 27-14 ATS (+11.6 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
VIRGINIA is 43-64 ATS (-27.4 Units) in March games since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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TEXAS TECH (29 - 6) vs. GONZAGA (33 - 3) - 3/30/2019, 6:09 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TEXAS TECH is 139-185 ATS (-64.5 Units) as an underdog since 1997.
TEXAS TECH is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in a neutral court game where the total is 135 to 139.5 since 1997.
GONZAGA is 22-13 ATS (+7.7 Units) in all games this season.
GONZAGA is 22-13 ATS (+7.7 Units) in all lined games this season.
GONZAGA is 21-12 ATS (+7.8 Units) as a favorite this season.
GONZAGA is 160-117 ATS (+31.3 Units) when playing with one or less days rest since 1997.
GONZAGA is 12-5 ATS (+6.5 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
GONZAGA is 12-5 ATS (+6.5 Units) in non-conference games this season.
TEXAS TECH is 18-9 ATS (+8.1 Units) after allowing 60 points or less over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Saturday, March 30

Last six years, underdogs are 15-9 vs spread in regional finals.

Over last 21 years, underdogs are 17-4 vs spread in West Region final, with 12 SU wins. Last five years nationally, #1-seeds are 4-9-1 vs spread in regional finals. Texas Tech won its first three tourney games, by 15-20-19 points; they’re 12-1 in last 13 games, somehow losing to a lousy West Virginia team in their first game of Big X tourney. Red Raiders’ defense has #2 eFG% in nation; they’re 15-1 outside Big X, with only loss to Duke. Gonzaga is 16-2 outside WCC, losing to North Carolina, Tennessee; they won first three tourney games, by 38-12-14 points. Zags have #1 eFG% offense in country, so good contrast here.

Virginia allowed 55.3 ppg in winning first three tourney games, despite shooting 28.8% on arc in those games. Guy is 5-31 on arc in his last four games. Cavaliers are 15-0 outside the ACC this year; they beat Wisconsin by 7, Maryland by 5 in Big 14 games this year. Virginia plays slowest tempo games in country; despite recent slump, they’re 39.6% behind arc for the year. Purdue blew an 18-point 2nd half lead Thursday, won in OT; PG Edwards played whole 45:00, 7-footer Haarms played 36:00. Last five years, #1-seeds are 4-9-1 vs spread in regional finals; Virginia (-6.5) lost this game to a 10-seed three years ago.




NCAAB

Saturday, March 30

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Trend Report
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Texas Tech Red Raiders
Texas Tech is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Texas Tech is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Texas Tech's last 6 games
Gonzaga Bulldogs
Gonzaga is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Gonzaga is 24-1 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Gonzaga's last 6 games

Purdue Boilermakers
Purdue is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Purdue is 17-3 SU in its last 20 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Purdue's last 7 games
Virginia Cavaliers
Virginia is 17-8 ATS in its last 25 games
Virginia is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Virginia is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Virginia's last 5 games


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681Purdue -682 Virginia
VIRGINIA is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) in road games after a game where they made 78% of their free throws or better in the current season.

683Texas Tech -684 Gonzaga
GONZAGA is 9-2 ATS (6.8 Units) after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games in the current season.

[StarDust Bum]

SATURDAY, MARCH 30
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

TTU at GONZ 06:09 PM
TTU +4.5
U 140.0

PUR at UVA 08:49 PM
PUR +4.0
O 127.0

[StarDust Bum]

Culver leads Texas Tech over Zags to first Final Four berth
March 30, 2019
By The Associated Press

Virginia is heading to the Final Four for the first time since 1984.

Kyle Guy had 25 points and 10 rebounds as the top-seeded Cavaliers withstood a brilliant performance from Purdue's Carsen Edwards and beat the third-seeded Boilermakers 80-75 in overtime.

Virginia forced the overtime on a buzzer beater from Mamadi Diakite.

With Purdue trailing by 1 in overtime, Edwards missed a 3-pointer with nine seconds remaining and Virginia got the rebound. Virginia's Kyle Guy made two free throws with 5 seconds remaining to put the Cavaliers up by three. The Boilermakers turned the ball over when they tried to bring the ball upcourt, and the Cavaliers made two more free throws to advance.

Virginia (33-3) will play the winner of Sunday's Kentucky-Auburn game in the Final Four on Saturday in Minneapolis.

TEXAS TECH 75, GONZAGA 69

Texas Tech has reached the Final Four for the first time in school history.

The third seeded Red Raiders defeated No. 1 seed Gonzaga 75-69 on Saturday in the West Regional final.

Jarrett Culver, the Big 12 Player of the Year, led the Red Raiders with 19 points. Matt Mooney scored 17 and Davide Moretti added 12 for Texas Tech (30-6). The Red Raiders will play the Duke-Michigan State winner next Saturday in Minneapolis.

Rui Hachimura scored 22 points, Brandon Clarke scored 18 and Josh Perkins added 16 for Gonzaga (33-4).

Gonzaga led 37-35 at halftime after a first half that featured nine ties and nine lead changes.

Moretti hit a 3-pointer with just under four minutes remaining to put the Red Raiders up 63-58. He drained another three with 1:46 to play that gave the Red Raiders a six-point lead.

With about a minute to play and Tech ahead by six, Tech's Tariq Owens blocked a 3-pointer by Hachimura, then saved the ball to a teammate. Replays showed Owens was out of bounds before the save, but the play was not reviewable. Tech's Brandone Francis made one of two free throws to make it a seven-point lead with 52 seconds to play.

[StarDust Bum]

Buona notte for Moretti and Final Four-bound Texas Tech
March 30, 2019
By The Associated Press

ANAHEIM, Calif. (AP) The final buzzer sounded and Davide Moretti sprinted to find his family in the stands.

With his Texas Tech teammates celebrating on the court, a teary-eyed Moretti shared an embrace with his father, mother and younger brother, who surprised him after traveling from Italy earlier in the week.

Buona notte, indeed.

Moretti had a souvenir for his brother: a piece of the net he cut to commemorate the third-seeded Red Raiders' 75-69 victory over top-seeded Gonzaga on Saturday night.

''It means a lot they can see what I'm living right here, especially my brother,'' Moretti said, sitting in a quiet locker room that moments earlier had music pumping and players dancing. ''I try to be the role model that he's looking up to.''

The sophomore guard from Bologna scored 10 of his 12 points in the second half, propelling a team without any household names to the first Final Four appearance in school history.

''We don't mind the underdog, chip-on-the-shoulder part of our story,'' coach Chris Beard said, ''but I think you disrespect our players a little bit. We got really good college players and I think we're one of the best teams in the country this year.''

Moretti built his resume playing for Italy on junior teams in European and world championships. He chose the Red Raiders over Indiana, Connecticut and Utah.

As a teenager, he stayed up late into the night livestreaming the NCAA Tournament on his iPad, never imagining he would play in a Final Four one day.

The Red Raiders' 30th victory ties a school record for wins in a season. Their stifling defense held the Bulldogs 19 points under their season average.

''Being Texas Tech, we are not one of the blue bloods,'' reserve forward Malik Ondigo said. ''We do not get five-star recruits every year so we have our own little chip on our shoulder.''

Moretti's first basket of the second half drew the Red Raiders within one and launched a 9-2 run that put them up by four.

But Gonzaga came back and tied the game for the last time at 58-all.

With the Red Raiders clinging to a two-point lead, Moretti hit consecutive 3-pointers that gave them a 66-60 lead. On the first one, Moretti stole the ball and connected from long-range. On the next one, Big 12 player of the year Jarrett Culver found him.

''They fired the team up,'' he said. ''I'm really thankful because J.C. trust me, so I was ready for that. It was a big-time moment, it was a big-time shot.''

Moretti's performance capped a huge week. He turned 21 on Monday and his offense helped the Red Raiders defeat Michigan 63-44 in the regional semifinals on Thursday. He hit his first five shots of the game against the Wolverines.

''It's crazy, man,'' he said. ''I can't believe we're here after all the work we did during the season.''

[StarDust Bum]

Perkins laments "bonehead play" in Gonzaga's loss
March 30, 2019
By The Associated Press

ANAHEIM, Calif. (AP) Josh Perkins has accomplished so much over five years at Gonzaga, but a self-described ''bonehead play'' in his final game is something he will always regret.

Top-seeded Gonzaga came up a short of the Final Four on Saturday, losing 75-69 to Texas Tech in the West Regional final. Perkins' mistake in the waning seconds helped seal it for the third-seeded Red Raiders.

A layup by Zach Norvell got Gonzaga within 71-69 with 11 seconds left. The Bulldogs applied full-court pressure on the inbound pass, but he reached over the end line and made contact with Matt Mooney as he was throwing in the ball. The result was a technical foul that all but ended the game.

''He was ball faking a lot and I thought he ball faked in front of me and instinctively reached in,'' Perkins said. ''Bonehead play. Something I will think about forever. Unfortunately that happened.''

Davide Moretti made both free throws and Texas Tech maintained possession. Jarrett Culver was fouled and made a pair of free throws to put it out of reach.

The Bulldogs were down 69-62 with 55 seconds left, but forced two Red Raiders turnovers on consecutive possessions to get within 69-67. Perkins - who scored 16 points and had six assists in 38 minutes - made his fourth 3-pointer with 22 seconds remaining to bring Gonzaga within a basket. After Mooney made a pair of free throws, Norvell had a layup off a Corey Kispert missed 3-pointer to make it a two-point game again.

That would be as close as Gonzaga would get though.

Norvell and Kispert both said that the game did not come down to Perkins' technical. Norvell, who scored 12 points, didn't deny though that it ended up being the biggest play of the game.

''He was just being aggressive and there's no fault there for that,'' Kispert said.

Perkins leaves Gonzaga as the school's assist leader and part of a team that made the Final Four in 2017. Brandon Clarke, who had 18 points and 12 rebounds, said he would miss playing with Perkins.

''I came here to play with a guy that's like Josh, really, to play with a point guard that I knew we would have a connection that he is deeper than I've ever had before with a teammate, playing on the court with him is basically something I've dreamed about,'' he said.

Coach Mark Few added Perkins has helped the school set another lofty standard.

''We can write a book on Perk and Perk and I,'' Few said. ''He's hung in there, been kind of a lightning rod over the years because our program garners so much attention and he's handled it with grace. If you went and asked those guys in the room they would hands down say he is the best teammate they ever had.''

Few could have another formidable squad next year, but a lot depends on what transpires over the next couple months. Clarke and Rui Hachimura are juniors who would be selected in the first round of the NBA draft if they leave early. Hachimura - who had a game-high 22 points - is projected as possible top-five selection.

Hachimura said he would discuss his options with the coaching staff and his family, but was more eager to analyze what went wrong on Saturday.

''We had to be aggressive the whole game. They were handsy with the ball and guarding inside pretty good,'' he said. ''They were a great defensive team. We just didn't score the last couple minutes.''

[StarDust Bum]

CBB MARCH MADNESS RECORD OPINIONS AND BEST BETS !

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

03/30/2019 2-2-0 50.00% -1.00
03/29/2019 6-4-0 60.00% +8.00
03/28/2019 7-7-0 50.00% -3.50
03/27/2019 5-1-0 83.33% +19.50
03/26/2019 6-4-0 60.00% +8.00
03/25/2019 8-6-0 57.14% +7.00
03/24/2019 12-12-2 50.00% -6.00
03/23/2019 8-14-0 36.36% -37.00
03/22/2019 12-15-0 44.44% -22.50
03/21/2019 15-12-1 55.56% +900
03/20/2019 10-14-0 41.67% -27.00
03/19/2019 9-14-1 39.13% -32.00
03/18/2019 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00

Totals..........102-105-4......49.27%.....-67.50


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BEST BETS:

DATE........................ATS................... ..UNITS..................O/U..................UNITS.............TOTALS

03/30/2019.............1 - 1......................-0.50...................1 - 1..................0.50..................-1.00
03/29/2019.............3 - 1.....................+9.50...................3 - 1.................+9.50................+19.00
03/28/2019.............4 - 2.....................+9.00...................2 - 2.................-1.00.................+8.00
03/27/2019.............3 - 0.....................+15.00.................2 - 1.................+4.50...............+19.50
03/26/2019.............1 - 2......................-6.00...................2 - 2..................-1.00................-7.00
03/25/2019.............5 - 1.....................+19.50.................2 - 3...................-6.50...............+13.00
03/24/2019.............6 - 2.....................+19.00.................4 - 5...................-7.50...............+11.50
03/23/2019.............3 - 6......................-18.00.................4 - 5...................-7.50................-25.50
03/22/2019.............5 - 6......................-8.00...................5 - 6...................-8.00................-16.00
03/21/2019.............6 - 3......................+8.50..................3 - 7...................-23.50..............-15.00
03/20/2019.............3 - 7......................-23.00.................1 - 1...................-0.50................-23.50
03/19/2019.............5 - 5......................-2.50...................2 - 6..................-23.00...............-25.50
03/18/2019.............1 - 0......................+5.00..................1 - 0..................+5.00..............+10.00


Totals....................46 - 36.....................+27.50..............32 - 40................-60.00..............-32.50

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday’s 6-pack

NCAA betting props and how they’re making out:

— OVC 1.5 wins: Murray State/Belmont both won a game. OVER

— Pac-12 1.5 wins: Oregon won twice, ASU/Washington one each. OVER

— SEC 10.5 wins: Sitting at 11 wins, OVER

— WCC 3.5 wins: Gonzaga won three, Saint Mary’s lost in 1st round. UNDER

— #1 seeds 13 wins: Sitting at 12, with Duke/Virginia still alive.

— #2 seeds 10 wins: Sitting at 10, with Kentucky, Michigan State alive.

Quote of the Day
“We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable rights……..”
Declaration of Independence
Sunday’s quiz
Tony Bennett’s father Dick Bennett got to the 2000 Final Four coaching what team?

Saturday’s quiz
Colts were based in Baltimore before moving to Indianapolis.

Friday’s quiz
Joey Gallo was a Little League teammate of Bryce Harper in Las Vegas.


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Sunday’s List of 13: Wrapping up a sports Saturday……

13) Texas Tech 75, Gonzaga 69— Red Raiders make their first-ever trip to the Final Four. Gonzaga was in Elite 8 for third time in five years; they’re 1-2 in Elite 8 games.

It is easy to sit here and say that Texas Tech was toughened up by playing in a better league than Gonzaga plays in— Zags thrash everyone in their league every year. Not sure thats why Tech won this game, but they’re athletic as hell and they play very good defense.

Red Raiders also lost five of their top seven players from last year’s team; to make the Final Four with that much turnover on your roster is very impressive.

12) This trend has legs, but I’m not sure why. Over the last 22 years, underdogs are now 18-4 vs spread in the final of the West Region, 13-9 SU.

11) Virginia 80, Purdue 75 OT— Tremendous game. Damn shame someone had to lose.

Purdue’s Carsen Edwards scored 42 points, with no assists; not sure why he passed the ball on their last possession, but he threw the ball away. Amazing shooting performance.

Over the last 40 years, Purdue has had only two basketball coaches, Gene Keady, Matt Painter; Drake and Siena have had three coaches the last three years.

Solid lookalike submitted by The Professor: Matt Painter and WWE’s Shane McMahon.

10) Auburn F Chuma Okeke tore his ACL, is having surgery Tuesday, very bad news for Auburn’s hopes of going to the Final Four.

9) When the 3-point shot became a thing in the NBA for the 1979-80 season, there were players in the NBA who believed that 3-pointers should only be allowed in the 4th quarter, and kind of a come-from-behind gimmick.

Was funny reading that this week, seeing how prominent 3-pointers have become in both pro and college basketball.

8) Regional finals with teams from same league, last 10 years:2017: South Carolina (+3) 77, Florida 70
2016: North Carolina (-6.5) 88, Notre Dame 74
Syracuse (+6.5) 68, Virginia 62
2013: Syracuse (-2.5) 55, Providence 39

Auburn-Kentucky play in a regional final today.

7) Nebraska hired Fred Hoiberg as basketball coach, will pay him $3.57M a year, thats 3rd-highest salary in Big 14, 11th-highest in country.

6) Lakers will sit Lebron James down for the last six games of what has been a forgettable 34-42 season.

LA Clippers are 12-2 in March, the NBA’s best record this month.

5) Detroit Tigers lost 3-0 Saturday; they’ve lost two of their first three games, with only runs they’ve scored so far this week in 10th inning Thursday. So in three games, Detroit hasn’t scored yet in innings 1-9. Oy.

4) There is a gambling thing in Las Vegas that is a little weird; in NCAA tourney games, you can bet on which team will get to 15 points first. Random wager to create more action.

I was at the MGM Grand for the 2010 NCAA’s, and I’m watching Northern Iowa, and some kid makes a basket- the three young guys next to me start jumping up and down and hugging each other. I actually asked them if the kid that scored was their brother.

They explained that they won their “first to 15” bet. Had never heard of it before. If you had a lot of extra time, you could research all that, but not even I would enjoy researching all that.

3) When Jacob deGrom/Max Scherzer both struck out 10+ guys Thursday, it was only the second time EVER that both starters struck out 10+ on Opening Day.

Back in 1970 in an Orioles-Indians opener, Dave McNally and Sam McDowell both struck out 10+, and McNally wasn’t a big strikeout guy.

2) Crowds at Rockies-Marlins in Miami? 6,503 Friday, 7,642 Saturday.

Colorado’s Daniel Murphy broke a finger on his left hand Friday, is going on the DL.

1) Diamondbacks 5, Dodgers 4 (13)— This Friday night game lasted until 4:13am Saturday morning; at one point, the home plate ump got drilled in the mask by a pitch that totally crossed up the catcher- he left the game couple innings later, after the 11th inning.

This was longest regular season game, in terms of time, in Dodger Stadium history.

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday’s games

Last six years, underdogs are 15-9 vs spread in regional finals.

Auburn loses F Okeke with torn ACL. Kentucky beat Auburn twice this year, 82-80 on road, 80-53 at home; Wildcats won 19 of last 21 series games (5-2 in last seven, with both losses at Auburn). Kentucky won six of its last seven games overall; Calipari is 4-2 in regional finals at Kentucky, with last Final Four in 2015. Washington scored 16 points in 26:00 in his return from injury Friday; three Wildcats played 34:00+. Kentucky is experience team #351 that plays pace #284- they get 22.8% of points on foul line (#15). Auburn won its last 11 games since the loss at Kentucky; they’re experience team #37 that forces turnovers 25% of time. This is 5th time in last 10 years two teams from same league met in regional final; dogs went 2-2 vs spread in last four.

Duke is 0-3 vs spread in this tournament, 3-12 vs spread in last 15 games overall; Reddish didn’t play Friday, is gametime decision here. Duke beat Indiana by 21, their only Big 14 game this year. Blue Devils won their last two games by total of three points; they’re experience team #349. Michigan State won 13 of last 14 games after a 3-game skid in early February; they’re #140 experience team with #4 defensive eFG%. lost in OT at Louisville in its one ACC game. Since 2005, Duke is 2-1 vs MSU in NCAA’s, beating MSU in Final Four in 2015. Duke has been to one Final Four since 2011, going 1-2 in Elite 8 games since; Spartans are 7-2 in last nine Elite 8 games. Blue Devils won last meeting with MSU 88-81 in Nov ’17 on a neutral floor.

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday's Elite Eight Tips
March 30, 2019
By David Schwab

The other half of this year’s Final Four will be decided on Sunday with the championship matchup in both the Midwest and East Regions.

First off in an all-SEC showdown, the No. 5 Auburn Tigers tangle with the No. 2 Kentucky Wildcats for a trip to the Final Four out of the Midwest bracket.

Over in the East, the Big Ten’s Michigan State Spartans will square off against the ACC’s No. 1 Duke Blue Devils for the final spot in the 2019 NCAA Tournament semifinals.

Midwest Region Final (Kansas City, MO.)
No. 5 Auburn Tigers vs. No. 2 Kentucky Wildcats (CBS, 2:20 p.m. ET)

Opening Odds: Kentucky -3, 143 ½

Betting Matchup

Auburn started this run to the Elite Eight by winning this year’s SEC Tournament. The Tigers upended Tennessee 84-65 in the championship game on March 17 as five-point underdogs. Their current straight-up winning streak stands at 11 games with victories over New Mexico State, Kansas and North Carolina in this tournament. Auburn has gone 7-2 ATS in its last nine games with the total going OVER in the Tigers’ last four contests.

In Friday’s 97-80 romp over No. 1 North Carolina as a 5 ½-point underdog, Auburn lit it up from three-point range by going 17-for-37 from beyond the arc. Sophomore forward Chuma Okeke shot a blistering 72.2 percent from the field to lead the way with a game-high 20 points. However, he left the floor in the closing minutes after tearing the ACL in his left knee. He will miss the remainder of the NCAA Tournament.

Two of Kentucky’s 15 conference wins this season came against Auburn. The Wildcats covered the closing number in both games with the total evenly split 1-1. Heading in the third meeting this year, they are 10-2 SU in their last 12 games with tournament victories against Abilene Christian, Wofford and Houston. They covered the closing spread in all three games despite winning the last two games by a combined 10 points.

The total stayed UNDER 135 ½ points in Friday’s 62-58 victory against Houston as two-point favorites. It has stayed UNDER in eight of Kentucky’s last 10 games. PJ Washington missed the first two rounds of this tournament with a foot injury, but the sophomore forward made his presence felt in the Sweet 16 with 16 points on Friday night while shooting 75 percent from the field.

Betting Trends

-- The Tigers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven neutral-site games and they have gone 6-2 ATS in their last eight games against a team with a SU winning record. The total has stayed UNDER in 12 of their last 15 games against a SU winning team.

-- The Wildcats have a 6-1-2 record ATS in their last nine NCAA Tournament games. The total has stayed UNDER in five of their last six games at a neutral site and it has stayed under in 13 of its last 16 games in this tournament.

-- Kentucky has won four of the last six meetings SU, but Auburn has the slight 3-2-1 edge ATS. The total has stayed UNDER in 12 of the last 15 games between the two.



East Region Final (Washington DC)
No. 2 Michigan State Spartans vs. No. 1 Duke Blue Devils (CBS, 5:05 p.m. ET)

Opening Odds: Duke -1 ½, 148 ½

Betting Matchup

The Spartans’ current SU winning streak reached eight games with Friday’s 80-63 rout of LSU as six-point favorites. They have covered the spread in six of those games. The total stayed UNDER 148 points in that win and it has stayed UNDER in four of their last five contests.

Michigan State started this tournament with SU victories against Bradley and Minnesota after beating Michigan 65-60 as a slight 1 ½-point underdog in the Big Ten Tournament’s championship game.

Aaron Henry suffered the wrath of Michigan State head coach Tom Izzo earlier in this tournament and he responded on Friday night with his best game of the season. The freshman forward scored a team-high 20 points with eight rebounds and six assists to help lead his team to the Elite Eight.

Duke has been on a roll since mid-March with a SU six-game winning streak that includes a 73-63 victory against Florida State in the ACC Tournament’s title game as a seven-point favorite. This run also includes Friday night’s tight 75-73 win against conference foe Virginia Tech laying seven points on the closing line. The Blue Devils have now failed to cover in seven of their last eight games. The total went OVER 143 points in Friday’s contest after staying UNDER in six of their previous eight games.

Freshman sensation Zion Williamson scored a game-high 23 points in Friday’s win while going 11-for-14 from the field. Forward RJ Barrett added 18 points and 11 assists with Tre Jones scoring 22 points to help seal the trip to Sunday’s East Region Championship. A fourth freshman, Cam Reddish sat this one out with a bad knee. He's 'questionable' for Sunday and listed as a game-time decision. Reddish is Duke's third-leading scorer behind Barrett and Williamson.

Betting Trends

-- The Spartans have covered the spread in seven of their last 10 nonconference games and they are 4-1 ATS in their last five games played on Sunday. The total has gone OVER in seven of their last 10 games in the NCAA Tournament.

-- The Blue Devils are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games against the Big Ten, but they have failed to cover in their last five NCAA Tournament games. The total has stayed UNDER or ended as a PUSH in 23 of their last 31 games following a SU win.

-- Duke has a 4-1 edge ATS in the last five meetings and the total has gone OVER in the last four games in this Big Ten/ACC tilt.

[StarDust Bum]

Auburn's Okeke out with torn ACL
March 30, 2019
By The Associated Press

KANSAS CITY, Mo. (AP) Auburn coach Bruce Pearl knew the moment sophomore forward Chuma Okeke landed on the floor, his left knee having buckled at a gruesome angle, that something serious had happened.

Pearl learned the extent of the damage Saturday.

An MRI exam revealed that Okeke tore his ACL late in the fifth-seeded Tigers' victory over North Carolina, sidelining him for the rest of the NCAA Tournament. Their leading rebounder and third-leading scorer will have to watch from the bench when his red-hot team takes on second-seeded Kentucky in the Midwest Region finale on Sunday for a spot in the program's first Final Four.

Then, he'll head back to Alabama to await surgery Tuesday with Dr. James Andrews.

''I knew that was no sprain,'' Pearl said. ''The reaction from all the guys is really unfair, because he's such a great kid, really hard worker, humble. But he has a big dream. Players like Chuma give other players courage and confidence. And we're really going to miss him.''

The Tigers (29-9) will need all the courage and confidence they can get against the Wildcats (30-6), who roll into the Elite Eight with their usual assortment of NBA-ready playmakers.

''We're going to have tough matchups,'' said Pearl, whose team has already lost to the Wildcats twice this season. ''We lost every single matchup in Lexington, from the bench to the starters, but Chuma always gave us a chance to win that matchup. So now he'll be out for a while. He's going to rehab. But we're all sad. We're heartbroken for him.''

In fact, the injury hit the Tigers so hard on Friday night that there was no boisterous celebration in the locker room following their win over the Tar Heels. There was only disappointment and concern.

Now, the question is whether Okeke's injury can galvanize the team.

''It's just another reason for our team to come even closer together,'' said junior guard Jared Harper. ''Last year we faced a lot of adversity with stuff going down - Anfernee (McLemore) went down with an injury last year - and it brought us closer together. We are all we got.''

Kentucky coach John Calipari understands what it's like to lose players to injury late in the season. He's run into the problem several times in Lexington, and he was without leading scorer P.J. Washington for the opening weekend of the NCAA Tournament because of a foot injury.

Washington returned for the Wildcats' regional semifinal win over Houston.

''You shake your head,'' Calipari said. ''As a player you know that's out there, you know what I'm saying? Every one of us was physically ill. This is a sport, that happens at times, but you don't want to see it happen to anybody, and the crazy thing is not only is their team playing as well as anybody right now, he was playing as though he was their best player, which he probably was.''

Okeke averaged 12 points and 6.8 rebounds this season, but the sophomore forward was a monster on the glass against the Tar Heels. He had already scored 20 points and pulled down 11 boards when he began going up for a layup and his left knee buckled along the base line.

His incredible night was over just that quick, as was the rest of his NCAA Tournament.

''It's the most unpleasant thing in the world,'' Tar Heels coach Roy Williams said. ''What you have to do is just keep going forward, because Auburn is going to show up to play regardless of who is out there, and those kids who are still playing have to try to pick up the load a little bit more.

''Nobody should ever have to play over their head,'' he added, ''but it gives them a little more motivation to play even a little bit better. Every one of them will have to do it.''

[StarDust Bum]

Duke vs. Michigan St. is battle of titans
March 30, 2019
By The Associated Press

WASHINGTON (AP) Zion Williamson watched in awe in 2015 when Duke and Michigan State met in the Final Four.

When he steps on to the court for another Duke-Michigan State NCAA Tournament showdown on Sunday with a Final Four spot at stake, the fabulous freshman will feel grateful to be a part of it.

''I'm excited to play against Michigan State,'' Williamson said. ''That's why you come to college: to be a part of games like this.''

Williamson will be playing, and the college basketball world will be watching the titanic Elite Eight matchup between the top two seeds in the East Region. The latest meeting between the storied programs is Zion and RJ Barrett against Cassius Winston and Mike Krzyzewski against Tom Izzo.

It should be everything that's great about heavyweights going at it in March.

''Both them and us are such historic teams in the country,'' Michigan State forward Xavier Tillman said Saturday. ''Everybody wants to play at Michigan State. Everybody wants to play at Duke. But for us to be able to match up head to head on such a big stage like this is going to be great for everybody.''

It'll be better for the team that advances to the Final Four in Minneapolis to face Gonzaga or Texas Tech. It's familiar territory for these two blue bloods: Duke has gone to the Final Four 12 times under Coach K and Michigan State seven times under Izzo.

The mutual admiration between Krzyzewski and Izzo is almost over the top at times, though they've had plenty of chances to heap praise on one another. Their teams have met 12 times - and Duke is 11-1 in those matchups, including 4-1 in the NCAA Tournament.

While Krzyzewski brushed off the value of that lopsided record, Izzo brought it up unprompted and said one of his goals is to win this game to cut into that deficit. Spartans players know this game has special meaning to him.

''We want to help him out,'' Winston said. ''He's up there with the greatest coaches of all-time, so is Coach K. It's a chance to go to a Final Four, a chance to beat Duke - all type of things just make it exciting to be out there.''

The star power adds to the excitement. Winston is one of the top point guards in the country, and Duke could legitimately have the two top picks in the NBA Draft in Williamson and Barrett.

''They're star players,'' Michigan State freshman guard Gabe Brown said. ''They do things that some players in the country can't do or they have strength that other players in the country don't have.''

Overall No. 1 seed Duke doesn't know yet if it'll have Cam Reddish after the freshman forward missed the Sweet 16 victory against Virginia Tech with a left knee injury. Krzyzewski called Reddish a game-time decision but said there was no structural damage.

''If he can't go, we've been here before and we've got guys ready to step up,'' Duke forward Javin DeLaurier said. ''Even if a guy goes down, the world doesn't stop moving. The game moves on.''

Michigan State big man Nick Ward said a deep bone bruise in his left hand from the game against LSU won't keep him out, even though it's the same hand he broke in February.

Tillman said facing Duke is as important to Michigan State as going up against rival Michigan. The history between the schools has built it up as something of a nonconference rivalry.

''This is our chance to make it to a Final Four and it happens to be against another powerhouse in college basketball,'' Michigan State redshirt senior Kenny Goins said. ''Just the excitement level there is taken up tenfold really. All of us our excited for it, ready for the challenge because (it's) Duke. Just, it's Duke. Just to be able to go up against what everyone is calling the best.''

Goins is the only player left on either team from the 2015 game, but he didn't play in it. Duke freshman guard Tre Jones was 15 at the time and relishes the opportunity to be part of the next chapter, which could be an instant classic.

''They have a really good program, similar to Duke,'' Jones said. ''They have a winning tradition and they have a really good coach as well. So it will be a good battle.''

[StarDust Bum]

Duke's Reddish a game-time decision
March 30, 2019
By The Associated Press

WASHINGTON (AP) Freshman forward Cam Reddish will be a game-time decision for Duke's Elite Eight NCAA Tournament game Sunday against Michigan State because of a knee injury.

Coach Mike Krzyzewski updated Reddish's status Saturday before the Blue Devils' practice, saying there was no structural damage. Reddish was a late scratch for the Sweet 16 victory against Virginia Tech.

Reddish said his left knee has been bothering him for some time and that he tweaked it before the game. Reddish said he considers himself hour to hour as he gets treatment for the injury.

Top-seeded Duke beat Virginia Tech without Reddish thanks in large part to Alex O'Connell filling his spot. Reddish is Duke's third-leading scorer behind stars RJ Barrett and Zion Williamson, averaging 13.6 points this season.

[Udog]

[Udog]

Sunday's Elite Eight Tips
David Schwab

The other half of this year’s Final Four will be decided on Sunday with the championship matchup in both the Midwest and East Regions.

First off in an all-SEC showdown, the No. 5 Auburn Tigers tangle with the No. 2 Kentucky Wildcats for a trip to the Final Four out of the Midwest bracket.

Over in the East, the Big Ten’s Michigan State Spartans will square off against the ACC’s No. 1 Duke Blue Devils for the final spot in the 2019 NCAA Tournament semifinals.

Midwest Region Final (Kansas City, MO.)

No. 5 Auburn Tigers vs. No. 2 Kentucky Wildcats (CBS, 2:20 p.m. ET)

Opening Odds: Kentucky -3, 143 ½

Betting Matchup

Auburn started this run to the Elite Eight by winning this year’s SEC Tournament. The Tigers upended Tennessee 84-65 in the championship game on March 17 as five-point underdogs. Their current straight-up winning streak stands at 11 games with victories over New Mexico State, Kansas and North Carolina in this tournament. Auburn has gone 7-2 ATS in its last nine games with the total going OVER in the Tigers’ last four contests.

In Friday’s 97-80 romp over No. 1 North Carolina as a 5 ½-point underdog, Auburn lit it up from three-point range by going 17-for-37 from beyond the arc. Sophomore forward Chuma Okeke shot a blistering 72.2 percent from the field to lead the way with a game-high 20 points. However, he left the floor in the closing minutes after tearing the ACL in his left knee. He will miss the remainder of the NCAA Tournament.

Two of Kentucky’s 15 conference wins this season came against Auburn. The Wildcats covered the closing number in both games with the total evenly split 1-1. Heading in the third meeting this year, they are 10-2 SU in their last 12 games with tournament victories against Abilene Christian, Wofford and Houston. They covered the closing spread in all three games despite winning the last two games by a combined 10 points.

The total stayed UNDER 135 ½ points in Friday’s 62-58 victory against Houston as two-point favorites. It has stayed UNDER in eight of Kentucky’s last 10 games. PJ Washington missed the first two rounds of this tournament with a foot injury, but the sophomore forward made his presence felt in the Sweet 16 with 16 points on Friday night while shooting 75 percent from the field.

Betting Trends

-- The Tigers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven neutral-site games and they have gone 6-2 ATS in their last eight games against a team with a SU winning record. The total has stayed UNDER in 12 of their last 15 games against a SU winning team.

-- The Wildcats have a 6-1-2 record ATS in their last nine NCAA Tournament games. The total has stayed UNDER in five of their last six games at a neutral site and it has stayed under in 13 of its last 16 games in this tournament.

-- Kentucky has won four of the last six meetings SU, but Auburn has the slight 3-2-1 edge ATS. The total has stayed UNDER in 12 of the last 15 games between the two.


East Region Final (Washington DC)

No. 2 Michigan State Spartans vs. No. 1 Duke Blue Devils (CBS, 5:05 p.m. ET)

Opening Odds: Duke -1 ½, 148 ½

Betting Matchup

The Spartans’ current SU winning streak reached eight games with Friday’s 80-63 rout of LSU as six-point favorites. They have covered the spread in six of those games. The total stayed UNDER 148 points in that win and it has stayed UNDER in four of their last five contests.

Michigan State started this tournament with SU victories against Bradley and Minnesota after beating Michigan 65-60 as a slight 1 ½-point underdog in the Big Ten Tournament’s championship game.

Aaron Henry suffered the wrath of Michigan State head coach Tom Izzo earlier in this tournament and he responded on Friday night with his best game of the season. The freshman forward scored a team-high 20 points with eight rebounds and six assists to help lead his team to the Elite Eight.

Duke has been on a roll since mid-March with a SU six-game winning streak that includes a 73-63 victory against Florida State in the ACC Tournament’s title game as a seven-point favorite. This run also includes Friday night’s tight 75-73 win against conference foe Virginia Tech laying seven points on the closing line. The Blue Devils have now failed to cover in seven of their last eight games. The total went OVER 143 points in Friday’s contest after staying UNDER in six of their previous eight games.

Freshman sensation Zion Williamson scored a game-high 23 points in Friday’s win while going 11-for-14 from the field. Forward RJ Barrett added 18 points and 11 assists with Tre Jones scoring 22 points to help seal the trip to Sunday’s East Region Championship. A fourth freshman, Cam Reddish sat this one out with a bad knee. He's 'questionable' for Sunday and listed as a game-time decision. Reddish is Duke's third-leading scorer behind Barrett and Williamson.

Betting Trends

-- The Spartans have covered the spread in seven of their last 10 nonconference games and they are 4-1 ATS in their last five games played on Sunday. The total has gone OVER in seven of their last 10 games in the NCAA Tournament.

-- The Blue Devils are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games against the Big Ten, but they have failed to cover in their last five NCAA Tournament games. The total has stayed UNDER or ended as a PUSH in 23 of their last 31 games following a SU win.

-- Duke has a 4-1 edge ATS in the last five meetings and the total has gone OVER in the last four games in this Big Ten/ACC tilt.

[Udog]

691Michigan St -692 Duke
MICHIGAN ST is 11-0 ATS (11 Units) vs. excellent teams (Win Pct: 80%+) in the current season.

693Auburn -694 Kentucky
AUBURN is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) in road games after a combined score of 165 points or more over the last 2 seasons.




NCAAB
Dunkel

Sunday, March 31

Auburn @ Kentucky

Game 693-694
March 31, 2019 @ 2:20 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Auburn
71.429
Kentucky
78.833
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Kentucky
by 7 1/2
147
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Kentucky
by 4
142
Dunkel Pick:
Kentucky
(-4); Over

Michigan State @ Duke

Game 691-692
March 31, 2019 @ 5:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Michigan State
75.251
Duke
80.326
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Duke
by 5
154
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Duke
by 2
149 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Duke
(-2); Over




NCAAB
Long Sheet

Sunday, March 31

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MICHIGAN ST (31 - 6) at DUKE (32 - 5) - 3/31/2019, 5:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DUKE is 36-17 ATS (+17.3 Units) in a home game where the total is 145 to 149.5 since 1997.
DUKE is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
DUKE is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in home games after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games since 1997.
MICHIGAN ST is 26-11 ATS (+13.9 Units) in all games this season.
MICHIGAN ST is 26-11 ATS (+13.9 Units) in all lined games this season.
MICHIGAN ST is 101-65 ATS (+29.5 Units) when the total is 140 to 149.5 since 1997.
MICHIGAN ST is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
MICHIGAN ST is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) after scoring 80 points or more this season.
MICHIGAN ST is 22-7 ATS (+14.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
MICHIGAN ST is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.
MICHIGAN ST is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game this season.
DUKE is 66-94 ATS (-37.4 Units) in March games since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
DUKE is 1-1 against the spread versus MICHIGAN ST over the last 3 seasons
DUKE is 2-0 straight up against MICHIGAN ST over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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AUBURN (29 - 9) at KENTUCKY (30 - 6) - 3/31/2019, 2:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KENTUCKY is 95-65 ATS (+23.5 Units) in March games since 1997.
KENTUCKY is 11-4 ATS (+6.6 Units) after allowing 60 points or less this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
KENTUCKY is 2-2 against the spread versus AUBURN over the last 3 seasons
KENTUCKY is 3-1 straight up against AUBURN over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Sunday, March 31

Last six years, underdogs are 15-9 vs spread in regional finals.

Auburn loses F Okeke with torn ACL. Kentucky beat Auburn twice this year, 82-80 on road, 80-53 at home; Wildcats won 19 of last 21 series games (5-2 in last seven, with both losses at Auburn). Kentucky won six of its last seven games overall; Calipari is 4-2 in regional finals at Kentucky, with last Final Four in 2015. Washington scored 16 points in 26:00 in his return from injury Friday; three Wildcats played 34:00+. Kentucky is experience team #351 that plays pace #284- they get 22.8% of points on foul line (#15). Auburn won its last 11 games since the loss at Kentucky; they’re experience team #37 that forces turnovers 25% of time. This is 5th time in last 10 years two teams from same league met in regional final; dogs went 2-2 vs spread in last four.

Duke is 0-3 vs spread in this tournament, 3-12 vs spread in last 15 games overall; Reddish didn’t play Friday, is gametime decision here. Duke beat Indiana by 21, their only Big 14 game this year. Blue Devils won their last two games by total of three points; they’re experience team #349. Michigan State won 13 of last 14 games after a 3-game skid in early February; they’re #140 experience team with #4 defensive eFG%. lost in OT at Louisville in its one ACC game. Since 2005, Duke is 2-1 vs MSU in NCAA’s, beating MSU in Final Four in 2015. Duke has been to one Final Four since 2011, going 1-2 in Elite 8 games since; Spartans are 7-2 in last nine Elite 8 games. Blue Devils won last meeting with MSU 88-81 in Nov ’17 on a neutral floor.




NCAAB

Sunday, March 31

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Trend Report
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Auburn Tigers
Auburn is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games
Auburn is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Auburn's last 5 games
Auburn is 2-21 SU in its last 23 games when playing Kentucky
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Auburn's last 5 games when playing Kentucky
Kentucky Wildcats
Kentucky is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Kentucky is 20-3 SU in its last 23 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kentucky's last 6 games
Kentucky is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Auburn
Kentucky is 21-2 SU in its last 23 games when playing Auburn
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kentucky's last 5 games when playing Auburn

Michigan State Spartans
Michigan State is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Michigan State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Michigan State's last 5 games
Michigan State is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Duke
Michigan State is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Duke
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Michigan State's last 9 games when playing Duke
Duke Blue Devils
Duke is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games
Duke is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Duke's last 20 games
Duke is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Michigan State
Duke is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Michigan State
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Duke's last 9 games when playing Michigan State


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