Cnotes College Hoops Picks,Trends News 2018-2918 !

[StarDust Bum]

Hook 'em! Texas tops Lipscomb to win NIT championship
April 4, 2019
By The Associated Press

NEW YORK (AP) Texas can hook its horns to an NIT championship.

Dylan Osetkowski had 19 points and 11 rebounds to lead Texas to the NIT championship with an 81-66 win over Lipscomb on Thursday night at Madison Square Garden.

''It's great to win a championship,'' coach Shaka Smart said.

The Longhorns (21-16) beat South Dakota State, Xavier, Colorado and TCU to reach the final, and survived a few late shots at the lead to win their first NIT title since 1978.

Smart, just 71-66 in four seasons with the Longhorns, got Texas to cut down the nets the same time he is reportedly on the short list of candidates to take the UCLA vacancy. Texas has not won an NCAA Tournament game under Smart and few Texas fans would weep if he left for the Bruins.

Texas fans at the Garden enjoyed the title and held up the ''hook em'' hand gesture as the final seconds ticked off.

Smart was doused with water in the locker room and had a towel with him as he walked to a press conference.

''There have been teams that have come and won the NIT and used it as an unbelievable springboard,'' Smart said. ''And there's teams that haven't.''

Jase Febres held off the pesky Bisons - don't call it a comb-back - with 3s in the second half that extended the lead to 13 points each time and kept the Longhorns firmly in charge. He finished with 16 points and Kerwin Roach II had 16.

Smart shared a moment with the troubled Roach on the court, an emotional time for a senior in his final game who has been suspended three times over his career. Roach was named the NIT's most outstanding player.

''He's had some phenomenal moments,'' Smart said. ''I don't think he thought he'd be in college this long.''

Long enough to go out a champion.

Texas won in front of about 3,000 spectators, and not one sitting above the lower bowl.

Penn State about packed MSG last year, in large part because of a substantial alumni base and rapper Flavor Flav in the house rooting on his cousin.

But this year?

Well, there were a few hundred fans in burnt orange and that was about it.

So why come to this game?

Hours after the Mets won their home opener against the Washington Nationals, the train hub at Penn Station was packed with fans in Mets jerseys. Some even decided to make it a day-night doubleheader and hit MSG.

There was a small group that had made NIT games a tradition for the last 10 years. In a StubHub era in which tickets are grossly inflated from their face value cost, one fan said there wasn't anywhere else u can sit in the front row and watch basketball for a reasonable price.

StubHub had tickets in the prime 100 level going for $11 bucks 24 hours before tip - which is at least cheaper than a concession stand burger. When one fan yawned toward the end of the first half, a security guard chirped, ''it's too early for that.''

Eh, not really.

Osetkowski hit three 3s for 15 points in the first half and the Longhorns raced out to a 41-27 lead. The Longhorns will take their shorn nets back to Texas - with Smart's fate yet to be determined.

Garrison Mathews, named an Associated Press All-America honorable mention, scored 15 points for the Bisons (29-8). He made all 10 free throws but missed 8 of 10 shots from the floor. With their best player in a funk, Lipscomb was doomed.

''They took Garrison for the large part out of the game,'' Casey Alexander said. ''The only thing to be sad about is that it's over.''

[StarDust Bum]

Marshall routs Green Bay for CIT title
April 4, 2019
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HUNTINGTON, W.Va. (AP) C.J. Burks scored 28 points as Marshall romped past Green Bay 90-70 on Thursday night for the CollegeInsider.com Postseason Tournament championship.

Burks also had seven rebounds, six assists and three steals in being named the most valuable player. He had a steal on back-to-back possessions and his fast-break dunk gave Marshall a 72-62 midway through the second half.

Taevion Kinsey added 21 points for the Thundering Herd (23-14). Jon Elmore had 17 points on just 5-of-18 shooting. Marshall was 1 for 12 from 3-point range to start the game and finished 3 of 26.

Tank Hemphill had 21 points for the Phoenix (21-17). Sandy Cohen III added 13 points - all in the first half - and JayQuan McCloud had 11.

Green Bay led by as many as 13 points in the first half, but Marshall pulled within 42-40 at the break. Cohen made a 3-pointer early in the first half to move into second on Green Bay's single-season scoring list, passing Virginia coach Tony Bennett.

[StarDust Bum]

CBB MARCH / APRIL MADNESS RECORD OPINIONS AND BEST BETS !

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

04/04/2019 1-3-0 25.00% -11.50
04/03/2019 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50
04/02/2019 3-5-0 37.50% -12.50
04/01/2019 0-1-1 0.00% -5.50
03/31/2019 3-1-0 75.00% +9.50
03/30/2019 2-2-0 50.00% -1.00
03/29/2019 6-4-0 60.00% +8.00
03/28/2019 7-7-0 50.00% -3.50
03/27/2019 5-1-0 83.33% +19.50
03/26/2019 6-4-0 60.00% +8.00
03/25/2019 8-6-0 57.14% +7.00
03/24/2019 12-12-2 50.00% -6.00
03/23/2019 8-14-0 36.36% -37.00
03/22/2019 12-15-0 44.44% -22.50
03/21/2019 15-12-1 55.56% +900
03/20/2019 10-14-0 41.67% -27.00
03/19/2019 9-14-1 39.13% -32.00
03/18/2019 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00

Totals..........110-116-4......48.67%.....-78.00


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BEST BETS:

DATE........................ATS................... ..UNITS..................O/U..................UNITS.............TOTALS

04/04/2019.............0 - 2......................-11.00.................1 - 1..................-0.50................-11.50
04/03/2019.............1 - 0......................+5.00..................0 - 1..................-5.50................-0.50
04/02/2019.............2 - 2......................-1.00...................1 - 3..................-11.50...............-12.50
04/01/2019.............0 - 0 - 1.................+0.00..................0 - 1..................-5.50.................-5.50
03/31/2019.............1 - 1......................-0.50...................2 - 0..................+10.00..............+9.50
03/30/2019.............1 - 1......................-0.50...................1 - 1..................0.50..................-1.00
03/29/2019.............3 - 1.....................+9.50...................3 - 1.................+9.50................+19.00
03/28/2019.............4 - 2.....................+9.00...................2 - 2.................-1.00.................+8.00
03/27/2019.............3 - 0.....................+15.00.................2 - 1.................+4.50...............+19.50
03/26/2019.............1 - 2......................-6.00...................2 - 2..................-1.00................-7.00
03/25/2019.............5 - 1.....................+19.50.................2 - 3...................-6.50...............+13.00
03/24/2019.............6 - 2.....................+19.00.................4 - 5...................-7.50...............+11.50
03/23/2019.............3 - 6......................-18.00.................4 - 5...................-7.50................-25.50
03/22/2019.............5 - 6......................-8.00...................5 - 6...................-8.00................-16.00
03/21/2019.............6 - 3......................+8.50..................3 - 7...................-23.50..............-15.00
03/20/2019.............3 - 7......................-23.00.................1 - 1...................-0.50................-23.50
03/19/2019.............5 - 5......................-2.50...................2 - 6..................-23.00...............-25.50
03/18/2019.............1 - 0......................+5.00..................1 - 0..................+5.00..............+10.00


Totals....................50 - 41.....................+20.00..............36 - 46................-73.00..............-53.00

[StarDust Bum]

Friday’s 6-pack

Some more very early NFL over/under win totals:

— Houston 8.5, over -$120

— Indianapolis 9.5, under -$120

— Jacksonville 8, under -$120

— Kansas City 10.5, over -$120

— Chargers 10, under -$115

— LA Rams 10.5, over -$115

Quote of the Day
“I believe that sex is the most beautiful, natural, and wholesome thing that money can buy.”
Steve Martin

Friday’s quiz
Where did Russell Westbrook play his college basketball?

Thursday’s quiz
Last five World Series champs:
— 2014 Giants
— 2015 Royals
— 2016 Cubs
— 2017 Astros
— 2018 Red Sox

Wednesday’s quiz
Montreal Expos used to play their home games in Jarry Park.

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Friday’s List of 13: Random stuff with weekend here…..

13) Interesting article Thursday on bleacherreport.com about Aaron Rodgers and how his relationship with coach Mike McCarthy disintegrated over the years. If you’re a Packer fan, it has to be disturbing. As a football fan, not sure what word I’ll use to describe it.

“Disappointing” I guess. Rodgers comes off as kind of a creep.

McCarthy was the 49ers’ OC when San Francisco took QB Alex Smith instead of Rodgers in the ’05 draft. Rodgers never forgave McCarthy for saying that Smith was the better QB. Maybe that chip on his shoulder is what made Rodgers a great player. Will be curious to see how Green Bay does this year with a new coach and an aging QB who doesn’t resent him. Yet.

12) Think my biggest takeaway from the article is how long this disconnect was allowed to go on. Former Packer players say that the team should’ve won multiple Super Bowls, but that chances were squandered, and there was lot of blame to go around. An interesting read.

11) Two guys from the AAF have already signed with NFL teams:
— Keith Reaser, a CB from Orlando, signed with Kansas City
— Rashad Ross, a WR from Arizona, signed with Carolina.

10) When an umpire tells a manager “I can do anything I want!!” that doesn’t look good for baseball, but thats what happened in Arlington Wednesday night, with Ron Kulpa tossing Astros’ manager AJ Hinch and also Houston’s hitting coach, in the 2nd inning.

Houston starts season with a 2-5 road trip; they’ve scored 10 runs in their last six games.

As for Kulpa, over last seven years, under is 112-73 when he’s been behind the plate, so he is a pitcher’s friend. Last year, he worked only eight games behind the plate.

9) A’s 7, Red Sox 3— Oakland takes three of four from Boston; Ramon Laureano threw out another baserunner from CF; he threw three guys out in this series, all at 3rd or home.

8) Blue Jays’ manager Charlie Montoyo went 2-5 in four games for the 1993 Montreal Expos, his only playing experience in the major leagues. Hard as hell to make it to the majors, so hats off to him, but Montoyo played in 1,028 minor league games, 534 of them at the AAA level.

Imagine how frustrating it must’ve been to be that close to the majors, yet only get the call one time? I’m guessing that experience will make him a pretty good big league skipper.

7) In the last 18 months, Texas A&M has committed $99.3M to its football/basketball coaches when they hired Jimbo Fisher, Buzz Williams away from ACC schools.

6) Top five cities in country, with regard to adults still living at home with their parents:
— Riverside, CA 28.1%
— Miami 27% (26.5% of whom are unemployed)
— Los Angeles 26.9%
— New York 24.7%
— San Antonio 23.2%

5) Indians 4, Blue Jays 1— Trevor Bauer threw 117 pitches in seven no-hit innings in his second start of the season. Last pitcher to throw 120+ pitches in an April start? Tyson Ross threw 127 in a start last April 30.

4) From NFL Hall of Famer Gil Brandt:
“Here’s a prediction: 4 quarterbacks will be drafted in the first 25 picks this year.”

3) Thursday was Opening Day in the minor leagues; part of being in a fantasy baseball league is checking thru boxscores and gaining knowledge. Not relevant for fantasy owners: Tim Tebow is in AAA for the Mets and went 0-4 with two strikeouts Thursday.

2) Maybe Lebron James should coach the Lakers next year.

1) Since 2015, Homer Bailey is 9-27 with a 6.24 ERA; he is making $23M this season.

Chris Davis is 0 for his last 37 with 21 strikeouts. He makes $23M also.

What a country.

[StarDust Bum]

Saturday’s Final Four games

Last six years, favorites are 7-5 vs spread in national semis; last outright upset in Final 4 game was 2015, with two #1-seeds playing.

Auburn won its last 12 games; their last setback was Feb 23. Tigers lost Okeke in Sweet 16 game, a big loss; they played two subs 30:00+ in their OT win over Kentucky in Elite 8. Tigers are 1-2 vs ACC teams, beating UNC by 17, losing by 6 to Duke, by 7 at NC State. Auburn forces turnovers 24.9% of time (#1); Virginia turns ball over 14.7% of time (#12) while playing slowest tempo in nation. Guy made 5-12 on arc last game, ending a 5-31 skid; Cavaliers are 16-0 outside ACC this year. Last seven #1 seeds to play non-#1-seed in this round went 2-5 vs spread. A #1-seed has played in national title game 10 of the last 12 years.

This is first time a #2-seed plays a #3-seed in national semis since 2004; Georgia Tech upset Oklahoma State that day. Michigan State is 14-1 since a 3-game losing skid around Super Bowl time; Spartans are 2-0 vs SEC teams this year, beating Florida/LSU. MSU is experience team #138; their defensive eFG% is #4 in country. Izzo is only coach in Final Four who has been here before; he is 2-5 in national semi-final games, with last win in 2009. Texas Tech won 13 of its last 14 games, is 16-1 outside Big X, but vs NC schedule #307; Red Raiders are experience team #102 whose defensive eFG% is #2 in country.

[StarDust Bum]

Auburn, Virginia, MSU, T-Tech arrive
April 4, 2019
By The Associated Press

MINNEAPOLIS (AP) Auburn, Virginia, Michigan State and Texas Tech have arrived in Minneapolis for the Final Four.

Teams will practice on Thursday and hold open-to-the-public workouts on Friday. The national semifinals are on Saturday, when Auburn faces Virginia and Michigan State takes on Texas Tech. The championship game is on Monday.

The last time Minneapolis hosted the Final Four was in 2001, when Duke beat Arizona for the title at the Metrodome. That stadium was torn down in 2014 to make room for U.S. Bank Stadium, the $1.1 billion building that opened in 2016.

Michigan State was in the Final Four in 2001, too, one of 10 times the Spartans have made it. Virginia is making its third appearance. Auburn and Texas Tech are first-timers.

[StarDust Bum]

Saturday's Final Four Tips
April 3, 2019
By Joe Williams

Final Four - National Semifinal (Minneapolis, MN)
No. 5 Auburn vs. No. 1 Virginia (CBS, 6:09 PM EST)

Opening Odds: Virginia -5½, 131

-- Auburn (30-9 SU, 21-16 ATS) has had an NCAA Tournament that won't soon be forgotten by the Tigers faithful. The only low point was the lost of start forward Chuma Okeke, who scored 20 points with 11 rebounds in a double-double against North Carolina before suffering a torn anterior cruciate ligament.

-- That was about the only thing which hasn't gone right for the Tigers and head coach Bruce Pearl, although the first game of the tourney was a bit hairy. The Tigers tried their hardest to give away their opening-round game against New Mexico State, eeking out a 78-77 win over the 12-seed New Mexico State, the only game of the NCAA Tournament which the Tigers failed to cover. After that they throttle blue bloods Kansas and North Carolina before edging SEC rival Kentucky by a 77-71 score in overtime to punc their ticket their their first-ever Final Four.

-- Jared Harper picked up the slack with Okeke on the shelf, scoring 26 points with five assists and four rebounds to go along with two blocked shots across 39 minutes, and he is averaging 17.5 points per game (PPG) with 6.5 rebounds per game (RPG) through four NCAA Tournament games. Bryce Brown stepped up in a big way against Kentucky, hitting 8-for-12 from the field with four triples, giving him 24 points. He is averaging 18.3 PPG with 3.0 RPG in this tournament.

-- Auburn has done well on offense in the tournament, and that's not a surprise since they averaged 80.2 PPG to rank 28th nationally. They also dropped in 3-pointers at a 37.9-percent clip, ranking 31st in the country in that department. The Tigers jack up a lot of shots, though, and were just 134th in the nation with a 45.1 field-goal percentage. They're not a great free-throw shooting club, either, ranking 166th at 70.9 percent, so that will be interesting to watch in the final minutes as the intensity gets ratcheted up to a level they've never seen in program history.

-- Defensively, Auburn is just so-so. In the tournament they've allowed at least 71 points in each of their four outings, good for an average of 75.8 PPG. That's slightly more than their 68.9 PPG average allowed, which was good for just 107th in the country.

-- Auburn enters this one having covered eight of their past 10 games overall, and they're 4-1 ATS in the past five against teams with a winning record. They're also 4-1 ATS in the past five neutral-site affairs.

-- The 'over' has cashed in five in a row for Pearl's squad, while going 7-0 in their past seven against teams with a winning percentage over .600. The over is also 5-0 in their past five neutral-site affairs, and 4-1 in the past five non-conference tilts, although the under has actually hit in five of their past six matchups against ACC foes.

-- These teams used to meet semi-frequently, with the underdog cashing in four in a row. The last meeting was Dec. 7, 2009, though, with the Tigers coming away with a 68-67 win.

-- Virginia (33-3 SU, 25-11 ATS) can finally stop answering questions about their historically bad loss to No. 16 seed UMBC last season, and talk about the good times instead. It's their first trip to the Final Four under the leadership of Tony Bennett, following in the footsteps of his dad, Dick, who took the Wisconsin Badgers to the Final Four back in 2000.

-- It looked like lightning was going to strike the Hoos twice, as 16-seed Gardner-Webb opened up a double-digit lead on the No. 1 seed in the first round before the Cavaliers pulled away in the second half for a 71-56 victory. After that scare from the Bulldogs, and the confidence from winning that one game, UVA hasn't looked back.

-- In the second round the Cavs steamed past Oklahoma by a 63-51 score, and then they edged Oregon in a defensive dogfight in the Sweet Sixteen, outlasting the Ducks 53-49 in a game with a score resembling the days before the 3-point line and the shot clock. Last, but certainly not least, they persevered against Purdue in what might have been the best game of this season's NCAA Tournament to date, winning 80-75 in overtime.

-- In that game against the Boilermakers, UVA was up against it in the final seconds, down two. However, Mamadi Diakite had the put-back after a missed free throw, tipping it in after the rebound to force overtime. Diakite saved the season, ending up with 14 points, seven rebounds and four blocked shots across his 42 minutes. Kyle Guy finally had a decent game after scuffling in the first three tournament battles, going for 25 points, 10 rebounds, a steal and five 3-pointers. Ty Jerome also contributed 24 points with seven assists and five boards while turning it over just once, and he dumped in four triples.

-- UVA was able to overcome 14 3-pointers from the Boilers, and a good reason they were so successful was their ability to get to the free-throw line, and efficiency once they were there. The Hoos ended the night 17-for-20 (85.0 percent) at the charity stripe, a good reason why they're here, although the final miss is also a big reason they're here, too.

-- Virginia is the last remaining No. 1 seed in this season's Field of 68 still alive.

-- The Cavaliers are just 2-6 ATS in the past eight NCAA Tournament games, and only a bad beat in the final moments of their overtime win against the Boilermakers prevented that from being 1-7. They're 8-3 ATS in the past 11 games outside of the conference, and 40-19-1 ATS in the past 60 following a straight-up win.

-- The over in their OT win against Purdue was a rarity, as the under is 7-2 in their past nine non-conference games, and 5-2 in the past seven neutral-site contests. The under is also 6-1 in their past seven vs. SEC opponents.

Final Four - National Semifinal (Minneapolis, MN)
No. 3 Texas Tech vs. No. 2 Michigan State (CBS, 8:49 PM EST)

Opening Odds: Michigan State -2½, 132½

-- Texas Tech (30-6 SU, 19-16 ATS) is easily the best defensive team remaining out of the four teams still alive for the national title, and we'll find out if defense wins championships on the hardwood. They ranked third in the country, allowing just 59.0 PPG this season, and they were second in defensive field-goal percentage at 36.9 percent. They also yielded just 29.3 percent of their 3-pointers against, checking in 10th in the nation.

-- The Red Raiders have rolled up an impressive resume getting to Minneapolis, so don't discount them even though they're slight underdogs. They racked up a 72-57 win over Northern Kentucky of the Horizon League in the opener, covering a 13-point number, and they throttled Buffalo by 20 points in a game against a team which spent a majority of the season in The Associated Press Top 25. Perhaps their most impressive win was in the Sweet Sixteen, as they dismantled Michigan by a 63-44 score, showing off an unbelievable defensive effort.

-- The most points they allowed in the NCAA Tournament came against No. 1 seed Gonzaga in the Elite Eight, but they still held the nation's top scoring offense to 69 points, well below their average.

-- Texas Tech is methodical on offense, posting just 73.0 PPG to rank 158th in the nation. The shots they took take go in, however, as they were a very efficient 47.1 percent from the field to rank 46th, and a respectable 69th in 3-pointer shooting at 36.5 percent.

-- Texas Tech is an impressive 13-3 ATS in their past 16 games overall, including 4-0 ATS in the NCAA Tournament, adthey're 11-1 ATS in the past 12 games against teams with an overall winning record.

-- The over against Gonzaga was the first in five NCAA Tournament games for the Red Raiders. The under is 19-8 in their past 27 neutral-site battles, and 46-22-1 in the past 69 non-conference tilts.

-- This is Texas Tech's first appearance in the Final Four.

-- Michigan State (32-6 SU, 27-11 ATS) started out rather sluggishly in their first NCAA Tournament game against Bradley from the Missouri Valley Conference, winning 76-65 as 17 1/2-point favorites. That seems to be the theme for each of the Final Four participants, who went a combined 1-3 ATS in the first round.

-- Michigan State hammered Big Ten foe Minnesota by a 70-50 count in Round 2 to get their sea legs, and they roughed up a good LSU side in the Sweet Sixteen by an 80-63 count. The most impressive game was their win over Duke, 68-67, as they punched their ticket to Minneapolis.

-- Duke had been winning those close games in the end, but Michigan State was able to make sure they weren't the latest victim of the Blue Devils at the buzzer. They beat a team with a handful of players expected to be NBA lottery picks next season, led by Cassius Winston. He poured in 20 points with 10 assists and four steals while hitting a pair of 3-pointers. Xavier Tillman was also rock-solid, going for 19 points on 8-for-12 shooting, while adding nine boards, three steals andtwo blocked shots. Kenny Goins added 10 points, nine boards and two steals with a pair of triples, as the Spartans were very balanced in the win for Tom Izzo's group.

-- A lot has been mentioned about Texas Tech's defense, but Michigan State knows a little something about defense, too. The allowed just 65.1 PPG to rank 34th in the country, and they had the third-best defensive field-goal percentage allowed at 37.9 percent. This game could be quite the slugfest in Minneapolis.

-- The difference in this one might be rebounding, as Michigan State used their size to rank ninth in the nation with 40.6 boards per game, while yielding just 28.3 RPG to check in 24th in the country defensively.

-- The Spartans won't be fazed by Texas Tech and their defense. They're been there and done that against rival Michigan, who plays a similar style. Sparty is 21-5 ATS in the past 26 games against teams with winning overall records, too, while going 26-9 ATS in their past 35 games overall. Michigan State is also 5-1 ATS in the past six on a neutral floor.

-- The under is 5-1 in the past six games overall, and 4-1 in the past five in the NCAA Tournament. The under is also 19-7-1 in the past 27 against teams with a winning percentage over .600, and 5-2 in Michigan State's past seven against the Big 12.

-- These teams have never met on the hardwood.

[StarDust Bum]

Final Four Odds & Angles
April 1, 2019
By Sportsbetting.ag

Below are Final Four lines, potential National Championship game spreads, NCAA Tournament odds and Most Outstanding Player odds per Sportsbetting.ag.

Final Four Lines
Auburn vs. Virginia (-5.5, 130.5)
Texas Tech vs. Michigan State (-3, 132)

National Championship Spreads
Virginia vs. Michigan State (+1)
Virginia vs. Texas Tech (+3.5)
Auburn vs. Michigan State (-4)
Auburn vs. Texas Tech (-1.5)

National Championship Odds
Virginia +150
Michigan State +180
Texas Tech +450
Auburn +500

NCAA Tournament Most Outstanding Player Odds
Kyle Guy (Virginia) +200
Cassius Winston (Michigan State) +250
Xavier Tillman (Michigan State) +500
Jarrett Culver (Texas Tech) +600
Bryce Brown (Auburn) +900
Jared Harper (Auburn) +900
Mamadi Diakite (Virginia) +1200
David Moretti (Texas Tech) +2000
Matt Mooney (Texas Tech) +2000

Title Odds Timeline

National Championship Odds (current)
Virginia +150
Michigan State +180
Texas Tech +450
Auburn +500

National Championship Odds (pre-tournament, 3/18/19)
Virginia +550
Michigan State +1200
Texas Tech +2000
Auburn +2500

National Championship Odds (midseason, 1/6/19)
Virginia +1000
Michigan State +1600
Auburn +2500
Texas Tech +4000

National Championship Odds (preseason, 11/6/18)
Virginia +1200
Michigan State +3300
Auburn +3300
Texas Tech +6600

Also below are relevant factoids such as a timeline of championship odds for the remaining teams as well as a comparison between the 1997 Arizona Wildcats and the 2019 Auburn Tigers.

Additionally, Final Four historical odds, conference and seed records are below.

Final Four Factoids

42-25: Final Four favorites straight up
33-34: Final Four favorites against the spread
24-31-1: Final Four over/under

Advertisement

Largest Final Four Spread: Duke (-11) vs. Michigan State (1999)
Smallest Final Four Spread: Kentucky (PK) vs. Wisconsin (2014)*

Highest Final Four Over/Under: 171 (Arizona vs. Arkansas, 1994)
Lowest Final Four Over/Under: 117 (Wisconsin vs. Michigan State, 2000)

Biggest Final Four Upset: Duke (+9.5) vs. UNLV (1991)

*Only game in Final Four history that closed as a pick ‘em

- ATS data since 1985
- Over/Under data since 1991

Tale of Two Davids

Auburn joined the 1997 Arizona Wildcats as March Madness “Giant Killers” after becoming the second team in history to defeat Kansas, Kentucky and North Carolina in the same NCAA Tournament.

Comparison...

(4) Arizona Wildcats
Opening NCAA Tournament Odds: 20/1

R64: Arizona (-10) vs. South Alabama
R32: Arizona (-6) vs. College of Charleston
S16: Arizona (+10) vs. Kansas
E8: Arizona (-4) vs. Providence
F4: Arizona (+5.5) vs. North Carolina
NC: Arizona (+7) vs. Kentucky

(5) Auburn Tigers
Opening NCAA Tournament Odds: 25/1

R64: Auburn (-5.5) vs. New Mexico State
R32: Auburn (-2) vs. Kansas
S16: Auburn (+5.5) vs. North Carolina
E8: Auburn (+4.5) vs. Kentucky
F4: Auburn (+5.5) vs. Virginia
NC: ???

Final Four Conference History

ACC: 16-12 SU / 14-14 ATS / 10-11-1 over (note: 2 ACC vs. ACC matchups)
B10: 12-12 SU / 13-11 ATS / 6-14-1 over (note: 2 B10 vs. B10 matchups)
B12/B8: 6-6 SU / 7-5 ATS / 6-4 over (note: Kansas has five of the six)
SEC: 10-9 SU / 9-10 ATS / 8-10 over

1 Virginia vs. 5 Auburn
ACC vs. SEC: 1-2 SU / 0-3 ATS / 1-2 over
1994: Duke over Florida (+7), 70-65 (over 134.5)
1995: Arkansas (+1.5) over North Carolina, 75-68 (under 158)
2000: Florida (-5) over North Carolina, 71-59 (under 149)

2 Michigan State vs. 3 Texas Tech
B10 vs. B12: 1-0 SU / 1-0 ATS / 1-0 over
2002: Indiana (+7) over Oklahoma, 73-64 (over 135)

Final Four Seed History

#1 Seeds: 33-23 SU / 30-26 ATS / 20-24-1 over
#2 Seeds: 13-15 SU / 10-18 ATS / 12-10 over
#3 Seeds: 10-6 SU / 13-3 ATS / 6-7 over
#5 Seeds: 3-3 SU / 3-3 ATS / 2-3-1 over

Seed vs. Seed

#1 vs. #5: 1-0 SU / 1-0 ATS / 0-0-1 over
#2 vs. #3: 3-2 SU / 1-4 ATS / 3-1 over

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB
Long Sheet

Friday, April 5

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S FLORIDA (22 - 14) at DEPAUL (19 - 16) - 4/5/2019, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
S FLORIDA is 22-13 ATS (+7.7 Units) in all games this season.
S FLORIDA is 22-13 ATS (+7.7 Units) in all lined games this season.
S FLORIDA is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in road games this season.
S FLORIDA is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in road lined games this season.
S FLORIDA is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
S FLORIDA is 12-5 ATS (+6.5 Units) in non-conference games this season.
S FLORIDA is 14-6 ATS (+7.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
S FLORIDA is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game this season.
DEPAUL is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in a home game where the total is 145 to 149.5 over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
S FLORIDA is 2-0 against the spread versus DEPAUL over the last 3 seasons
DEPAUL is 1-1 straight up against S FLORIDA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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727S Florida -728 Depaul
S FLORIDA is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) in road games after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games in the current season.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB
Dunkel

Friday, April 5


South Florida @ DePaul

Game 735-736
April 5, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
South Florida
57.563
DePaul
64.970
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
DePaul
by 7 1/2
140
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
DePaul
by 1
145 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
DePaul
(-1); Under

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB
Dunkel

Saturday, April 6


Auburn @ Virginia

Game 803-804
April 6, 2019 @ 6:09 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Auburn
79.723
Virginia
78.204
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Auburn
by 1 1/2
138
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Virginia
by 5 1/2
130 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Auburn
(+1 1/2); Over

Texas Tech @ Michigan State

Game 801-802
April 6, 2019 @ 8:49 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Texas Tech
79.887
Michigan State
77.985
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Texas Tech
by 2
124
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Michigan State
by 3
133
Dunkel Pick:
Texas Tech
(+3); Under




NCAAB
Long Sheet

Saturday, April 6

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TEXAS TECH (30 - 6) vs. MICHIGAN ST (32 - 6) - 4/6/2019, 8:49 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TEXAS TECH is 140-185 ATS (-63.5 Units) as an underdog since 1997.
MICHIGAN ST is 27-11 ATS (+14.9 Units) in all games this season.
MICHIGAN ST is 27-11 ATS (+14.9 Units) in all lined games this season.
MICHIGAN ST is 24-9 ATS (+14.1 Units) as a favorite this season.
MICHIGAN ST is 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
MICHIGAN ST is 23-7 ATS (+15.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
MICHIGAN ST is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.
MICHIGAN ST is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game after 15+ games this season.
MICHIGAN ST is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game this season.
TEXAS TECH is 12-5 ATS (+6.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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AUBURN (30 - 9) vs. VIRGINIA (33 - 3) - 4/6/2019, 6:09 PM
Top Trends for this game.
VIRGINIA is 25-11 ATS (+12.9 Units) in all games this season.
VIRGINIA is 25-11 ATS (+12.9 Units) in all lined games this season.
VIRGINIA is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) when the total is 130 to 139.5 this season.
VIRGINIA is 23-11 ATS (+10.9 Units) as a favorite this season.
VIRGINIA is 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) in road games on Saturday games over the last 2 seasons.
VIRGINIA is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
VIRGINIA is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
VIRGINIA is 17-9 ATS (+7.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
VIRGINIA is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons.
VIRGINIA is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
AUBURN is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in all tournament games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Friday, April 5

Last six years, favorites are 7-5 vs spread in national semis; last outright upset in Final 4 game was 2015, with two #1-seeds playing.

Auburn won its last 12 games; their last setback was Feb 23. Tigers lost Okeke in Sweet 16 game, a big loss; they played two subs 30:00+ in their OT win over Kentucky in Elite 8. Tigers are 1-2 vs ACC teams, beating UNC by 17, losing by 6 to Duke, by 7 at NC State. Auburn forces turnovers 24.9% of time (#1); Virginia turns ball over 14.7% of time (#12) while playing slowest tempo in nation. Guy made 5-12 on arc last game, ending a 5-31 skid; Cavaliers are 16-0 outside ACC this year. Last seven #1 seeds to play non-#1-seed in this round went 2-5 vs spread. A #1-seed has played in national title game 10 of the last 12 years.

This is first time a #2-seed plays a #3-seed in national semis since 2004; Georgia Tech upset Oklahoma State that day. Michigan State is 14-1 since a 3-game losing skid around Super Bowl time; Spartans are 2-0 vs SEC teams this year, beating Florida/LSU. MSU is experience team #138; their defensive eFG% is #4 in country. Izzo is only coach in Final Four who has been here before; he is 2-5 in national semi-final games, with last win in 2009. Texas Tech won 13 of its last 14 games, is 16-1 outside Big X, but vs NC schedule #307; Red Raiders are experience team #102 whose defensive eFG% is #2 in country.




801Texas Tech -802 Michigan St
MICHIGAN ST is 12-0 ATS (12 Units) vs. excellent teams (Win Pct: 80%+) in the current season.

803Auburn -804 Virginia
VIRGINIA is 8-0 ATS (8 Units) in road games after a game where they made 78% of their free throws or better in the current season.




NCAAB

Saturday, April 6

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Auburn Tigers
Auburn is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Auburn is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Auburn's last 5 games
Virginia Cavaliers
Virginia is 17-8 ATS in its last 25 games
Virginia is 13-1 SU in its last 14 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Virginia's last 6 games

[StarDust Bum]

Today's biggest bets and line moves: Public likes Auburn odds vs. Virginia
Patrick Everson

Auburn has been thumbs-up lately, as Bruce Pearl's squad is on a 12-0 tear (8-4 ATS) entering a Final Four clash with Virginia. The Tigers opened +5.5, went to +5 on public play but are now back at +5.5.

With the NCAA Tournament down to the Final Four, March Madness wagering hit a bit of a lull this week. But there’s been enough money to move the needle slightly, and much more is expected as the weekend rolls around. Covers checks in on the action and odds movement for both of Saturday’s semifinals, with insights from Derek Wilkinson, manager of The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.

No. 5 Auburn Tigers vs. No. 1 Virginia Cavaliers – Open: -5.5: Move: -5; Move: -5.5

Virginia claimed the South Region and in fact is the only No. 1 seed remaining in the Big Dance. In Saturday’s regional final against No. 3 seed Purdue, the Cavaliers (33-3 SU, 25-11 ATS) needed a stunning buzzer-beater to reach overtime, then went on to an 80-75 win and cover as 4-point favorites.

Auburn is the lowest seed left and brings a 12-game winning streak (8-4 ATS) into this 6:09 p.m. ET tipoff. The Tigers (30-9 SU, 21-16-1 ATS) went off as 4.5-point underdogs to No. 2 seed Kentucky and won the Midwest Region final 77-71 Sunday.

“We need Virginia. A lot of people are betting Auburn, and I think that’s mostly public money,” Wilkinson said of wagering that’s created modest liability on the Tigers. “We dropped to 5 for a day, now we’re back at 5.5. The public likes the Tigers because they’re a hot team right now. But we think Virginia is gonna show up for this one.”


No. 3 Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. No. 2 Michigan State Spartans – Open: -2.5; Move: -3; Move: -2.5

Michigan State is on a nine-game run (7-2 ATS) and sports the No. 2 spread-covering mark in the nation, at 27-11 ATS. The Spartans (32-6 SU) squeezed out a 68-67 victory over No. 1 seed Duke as 2.5-point underdogs in Sunday’s East Region final.

Texas Tech has won and cashed in all four of its NCAA Tourney tilts, part of a 13-1 SU and 12-2 ATS spree. In Saturday’s West Region final, the Red Raiders (30-6 SU, 19-16-1 ATS) bounced No. 1 seed Gonzaga 75-69 as 5-point pups.

“It’s fairly even, but there’s a little more money on Michigan State,” Wilkinson said. “We don’t have a big decision on it yet, similar to the other game. We need Texas Tech, and it’s a high-four-figure decision right now.”

[StarDust Bum]

AUBURN TIGERS VS VIRGINIA CAVALIERS (+5.5, 131)

THREE REASONS WHY VIRGINIA COVERS

NO. 1 DEFENSE WINS

Defense wins championships: It's an old cliche/mantra but it has more than a kernel of truth. Of the last 11 national champions, none have been ranked lower than 18th in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom.com, while four have been ranked in the Top 5 in that category. Virginia is ranked fifth in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency, while Auburn is just 38th.

Virginia allows an NCAA-low 55.4 points per game on 38.4 percent shooting, while Auburn gives up 69.3 ppg on 44.1 percent shooting.

But it's not just about defense with championship-caliber teams. Nine of the previous 11 NCAA champions were ranked among the Top 10 teams in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency, and seven of them were in the Top 3. As good as Auburn's offense is, it's ranked outside the Top 3. However, Virginia is at No. 2.

With a significantly better defense, and a more efficient offense as well, UVA should be able to cover the 5.5 points.

NO. 2 THE FRONTCOURT EDGE

Both of these teams largely play small ball, with guard-heavy lineups. Auburn is led by Bryce Brown and Jared Harper, while Virginia has the three-headed monster of Ty Jerome, Kyle Guy and De'Andre Hunter. But this is still basketball and size matters. Auburn has a true center in Austin Wiley, but he averages just 13.1 minutes per game. Virginia counters with a pair of big men in Jack Salt and Jay Huff, who log a combined 26.5 mpg.

The real advantage though is at forward where Auburn will miss Chuma Okeke. Okeke was Auburn's leading rebounder and affected the game in so many ways on both ends of the court. He was arguably Auburn's best player against North Carolina before tearing his ACL.

Virginia has a long, active forward of its own in Mamadi Diakite. Diakite has really stepped up recently, averaging 13 points, nine rebounds and 2.3 blocks per game during the tournament. With Okeke out, Auburn will have no answer for Diakite.

Factor in the fact that Virginia is 14th in the country in rebounding rate, while Auburn is 243rd, and UVA should be able to dominate the boards and in the paint.

NO. 3 TENACIOUS D FROM DEEP

Auburn loves to shoot threes, we all know this. But Honey Badger don't care. And by Honey Badger, I mean this Virginia defense which generally shuts down 3-point shooting teams.

Now, I know you're going to say two words in response to that: Carsen Edwards. Yes, Edwards did go off against Virginia, connecting on 11 of 19 attempts from deep. But he was just unstoppable all tournament and kept taking and making insane shots that the vast majority of players aren't going to. A matter of fact, the rest of the Purdue lineup went just 4 for 13 from long range.

On the season, UVA allows only 6.3 3-pointers per game and holds opponents to just 28.7 perecent shooting from beyond the arc - the third-lowest figure in the country.

Keep in mind that this is the same Auburn squad that went 5 for 20 from 3-point range against Mississippi, 8 for 27 against Kentucky and 7 for 25 against Alabama, all within the last two months. You live by the three, you die by the three. Auburn will die by the three Saturday.


THREE REASONS WHY AUBURN COVERS

NO. 1 THE ULTIMATE WEAPON

I’m just going to say it. The Auburn Tigers are the best 3-point shooting team in the country. Argument over. Don’t @ me. No team shoots as many threes as the Tigers do, while hitting them at the rate they do. They rank fifth in the country in 3-point attempts per game (30.0), third in made threes per game (11.5), while hitting 38.3 percent of their attempts, good for 15th best. During their 12-game winning streak (also the best in the country) they are hitting nearly 40 percent of their 3-point attempts.

The Tigers are led by standout and experienced guard play (another big tournament plus). Senior Bryce Brown and junior Jared Harper led the Tigers with 16.0 and 15.4 points per game respectively, while hitting a combined 39.1 percent of their attempts from beyond the arc.

And don’t give me this, “Well, Virginia’s defense is going to lock them down,” crap. Auburn has played plenty of great defensive teams during this run. Kentucky, North Carolina and Kansas all rank in the Top 17 of the KenPom adjusted defensive efficiency metric. The Tigers can spread the floor like not many others in the county. They’ll get their shots, even against Virginia. And they’ll make a bunch of ‘em.

NO. 2 HUSTLE AND FLOW

A quick look at the Tigers’ adjusted defensive efficiency and you’ll see that they aren’t on the same level as Virginia, Michigan State or Texas Tech. But they get the job done on the defensive end in other ways. And first and foremost, that's with hustle and effort.

That translates to steals and blocks. And a lot of them. The Tigers rank fifth in the country with 9.4 steals per game and 21st in blocks per game at 4.8. In the tournament alone, the Tigers have forced 59 turnovers, recorded 18 blocks and are a plus-24 in the turnover margin.

Virginia doesn’t turn the ball over a lot, but it hasn't faced a team that gets its hands in the passing lanes like Auburn can. These plays result in a lot of breakout transition plays for the Tigers and that could be the key in breaking down the Cavaliers’ vaunted defense. The more fast-break opportunities Auburn can get, the fewer chances Virginia will have to get set in its half-court defense.

Virginia loves to slow teams down and make them play at its pace, but Auburn won’t let them in this one.

NO. 3 PEARL JAM

Auburn coach Bruce Pearl gets made fun of for his antics on the sideline. And yes, his yelling and motioning may be a little over the top, but it distracts viewers from what he's actually doing: coaching. Pearl never takes a play off. He's coaching his team each and every second of the game. It may mean going through a shirt or two during a game, but it’s worth it.

Pearl has come in and built a real basketball culture and at Auburn and you could really feel it after the loss Chuma Okeke in its upset defeat of North Carolina. The team was devastated for their brother and it would be totally understandable if they got to the regional final against Kentucky and it was just too much for them to overcome. Okeke was their third-leading scorer, shooting the lights out from deep and was their best defender. But the Tigers didn’t fold. Pearl kept his team in the right frame of mind and they were able to overcome that adversity, not only showing the mental toughness to take out a strong Kentucky team, but to do it in overtime.

Does Virginia have that sort of mental toughness? I’m not sure (*cough* UMBC *cough*).

Reason No. 2 and No. 3 are related. No matter the score Pearl has his guys set up properly and they in turn are diving on the court for every lose ball. That preparedness and effort will not only be the difference in the Tigers covering the 5.5-points they’re getting but advancing to the National Championship.

[StarDust Bum]

TEXAS TECH RED RAIDERS VS MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS (-2.5, 132.5)

THREE REASONS WHY MICHIGAN STATE COVERS

NO. 1: OWN THE BOARDS

Michigan State is one of the better rebounding teams in college basketball – ranked fifth in total rebounds per game - and has been especially strong on the glass during the NCAA Tournament. The Spartans were able to keep bigger opponents like LSU and Minnesota off the boards and held their own against a very active Duke team and Zion Williamson, totaling 11 offensive rebounds which added up to extra scoring chances in that Elite Eight win.

The Red Raiders are 224th in total rebounds per game and allow foes to find offensive boards 8.4 times an outing. Texas Tech has been outworked on the glass in all but one of its tournament games (Buffalo) and doesn’t pose much of a threat for put-back buckets, sitting 236th in offensive rebounding.

While TTU is the defensive monster in this matchup, MSU should not be dismissed on that end of the floor. The Spartans are eighth in defensive efficiency and will get stops against Texas Tech, collecting those misses on defense as well as scoring second-chance points on the offensive glass.

NO. 2: TAKING CARE OF TURNOVERS

Outside of a brain fart versus Minnesota in the Round of 32, in which Michigan State coughed the ball up 20 times, the Spartans are very careful when it comes to turnovers. They had just six against one of the best ball-hawking defenses in Duke, recorded only six in the win over LSU, and tightened up in the second half versus Bradley with nine turnovers in that NCAA opener.

Texas Tech thrives on those mistakes, ranked 15th in creating chaos with 15.7 forced turnovers per outing. The Red Raiders made Gonzaga’s surehanded backcourt cough it up 15 times in the Elite Eight and squeezed 14 turnovers out of Michigan, which averaged only nine per game on the season. Cassius Winston is a rock in the backcourt for Tom Izzo, and had only one turnover against a very aggressive Duke defense.

Texas Tech isn’t going to generate those extra possessions or score on easy transition buckets, forcing their inconsistent offense to play a halfcourt set. Between their scoring lulls and MSU’s tough defense, the Red Raiders will struggle to scrounge up points.

NO. 3: CAN’T BULLY THE BULLY

Texas Tech is a physical force on the hardwood, using its size and speed to plug up gaps and beat opponents to the spot with intuitive help defense. And when shots do go up, the Red Raiders are fantastic at forcing bad ones and turning away their fare share, averaging five blocks per game.

They’ve been able to physically dominate and wear down their opponents and made Gonzaga’s top-ranked offense look like an ordinary team from the WCC. The Red Raiders are extremely active and hustle for every possession they can get, but run into a MSU program with that same fire.

The Spartans are tough, which is nothing new for a crew from East Lansing. Michigan State has battled bigger bodies in Minnesota and Louisiana State and stood toe-to-toe with the freakish strength of Zion. They won’t get rattled when TTU starts throwing its weight around – in fact, MSU will welcome it.

Turning to the battle of brains – not brawn – Izzo will have the insight and experience edge over Red Raiders head coach Chris Beard, having a week to prepare for this defense and prep his men for what should be a war Saturday night in Minneapolis.


THREE REASONS WHY TEXAS TECH COVERS

NO. 1: DEFENSE!

This one is easy because defense wins championships, right? And Texas Tech has an elite defense that ranks first in the NCAA in defensive efficiency (85.1 percent), first in KenPom’s Adjusted Defensive Efficiency metric (84), and third in points against per game (59).

The Red Raiders have been in shutdown mode in the tournament, allowing 57, 58, 44, and 69 points so far. What’s even more impressive is that two of these games came against two of the top-ranked offenses in the country in Buffalo and Gonzaga. Texas Tech held the Bulls 26 points below their season average and the Bulldogs 19 points below their season average.

Texas Tech is also one of the best teams in the nation at limiting team assists, allowing just 9.8 per game, the fifth-fewest in the nation. That just happens to be a strength of the Spartans as they have totaled 40 assists over the last two games and are third in the nation in averaging 18.7 per game. The Red Raiders are going to frustrate the Spartans by not allowing them to move the ball like they are used to and that’s going to be one of the biggest edges they have in this one. Michigan State’s defense is good but Texas Tech’s defense is better and it’s one of the reasons why the Red Raiders will be playing on Monday.

NO. 2: OFFENSIVE EDGE

Texas Tech has the best offensive player in this game and that is a huge advantage in a game with a total set in the low 130s. Sophomore guard Jarrett Culver is a legitimate NBA lottery prospect who is playing incredible basketball at the right time of year, averaging 21.5 points, 6.8 rebounds, and 4.5 assists in four NCAA Tournament games. The Big 12 Player of the Year takes 32.3 percent of Texas Tech’s shots while he’s on the court and will need a big game to get his squad through to the Final Four.

But Culver isn’t alone at the offensive end of the court. The Red Raiders feature a couple of sharp-shooting guards who can light it up from long range in Davide Moretti (46.3 percent from three) and Matt Mooney (38.1 percent from three). If these two get hot from downtown, the Red Raiders should find themselves playing for the national championship.

Some might argue that Texas Tech’s offense ranks the lowest of any team left in the tournament according to KenPom’s Offensive Efficiency Ranking, and that is true as the Red Raiders rank 29th. But their offense is much improved over the past two months and they actually rank No. 8 in the nation since Feb. 2. Texas Tech managed to score against Michigan’s second-ranked scoring defense (58.3 points against) and should also find a way to score against the Spartans defense that allows 65.1 points per game.

NO. 3: TAKING CARE OF THE BALL

The public narrative all week has been that Michigan State beat Duke. And of course Duke was the No. 1 overall seed and it has Zion Williamson, so the Spartans must be the real deal, right? But let’s be realistic. The Blue Devils were not playing their best basketball in the tournament and would have — and should have — lost to both UCF and Virginia Tech had it not been for some very fortunate events and bad calls late in the games that went their way.

Duke was sloppy with the ball in the Elite Eight, turning it over 17 times, and that is biggest factor that led to its loss. Texas Tech is not going to give the ball away 17 times. The Red Raiders turn the ball over 12.3 times per game on the season and have given it away just 11.5 times per game so far in the tournament. That includes giving it away just eight times when they played Michigan in the Sweet 16 and that is important as the pace of this game should be similar to the Red Raiders-Wolverines matchup last weekend.

Texas Tech is going to take care of the ball in a game that doesn’t have many possessions and that’s going to help push the Red Raiders into the National Championship game.

[StarDust Bum]

FRIDAY, APRIL 5

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

USF at DEP 07:00 PM

DEP -1.5

O 146.0