By: Monty Andrews
Buffalo Smoulders
Say what you will about the Buffalo Bulls, but those guys can score. The Bulls (-15.5) enter Friday night's MAC encounter with the Kent State Golden Flashes fresh off a 114-67 evisceration of the Ohio Bobcats on Tuesday. It's the third time the Bulls have scored at least 110 points in a game this season, a major reason why they're ranked fourth in the nation in scoring average at 85.9 points per game. And Buffalo has responded well following a triple-digit outburst in recent history, having gone 5-1 ATS in their past six games in that situation. The Bulls also rank second in average home scoring margin at +24.0.
Duke Undermanned at the Dome
It was the Sneaker Tear Heard 'Round the World – and it could result in the consensus No. 1 prospect in the country out of the Duke Blue Devils' lineup for a while. Zion Williamson suffered a mild knee sprain after ripping his shoe just 33 seconds into Duke's 88-72 home loss to rival North Carolina on Wednesday night, and will miss for the Blue Devils' Saturday encounter with Syracuse at the daunting Carrier Dome. The Under might be the superior play in this one; Duke is 7-17-2 O/U for the season and could struggle to replace Williamson's 21.6 points per game, while Syracuse is 5-12-0 O/U at home.
Another Big Win?
North Carolina's 16-point road win over the rival Blue Devils puts the Tar Heels on the fast track to a major rankings boost – but they can ill afford to take it easy Saturday as they host the nationally-ranked Florida State Seminoles. North Carolina saw its national title odds jump to +1,300 with the victory in Duke and are in good shape to keep the good times rolling: The eighth-ranked Tar Heels have covered seven of their past nine games and are 9-3 ATS in their previous 12 following a victory. But the 16th-ranked Seminoles are no slouch, as they come in on a five-game cover streak of their own.
Points A-Plenty in Ann Arbor
Oddsmakers often tab games between Michigan and Michigan State as low-scoring affairs – but the Wolverine State rivals have filled the bucket in their recent encounters and will look to do the same as they face off Sunday in Ann Arbor. The Wolverines and Spartans have converted the over in eight of their previous 10 meetings dating back to the start of 2014, including the past three encounters – each won and covered by Michigan. The winning team produced 75 or more points in each of those eight overs, with the final score exceeding the total by double digits six times in that stretch.
Mid-Major to Watch: Yale Bulldogs (17-4 SU, 12-8 ATS, 9-11 O/U)
You won't see many Ivy League teams in this space but given that the conference will produce at least one NCAA Tournament entrant this year, it's only fair to look at which team might make it to March Madness. And the Bulldogs enter the weekend with the best shot at representing the Ivy League in the final 68, leading Harvard by one game – with its only conference loss coming to the Crimson earlier this month. There's a decent chance Yale will be able to exact its revenge in Saturday's rematch.
The Bulldogs have boasted a surprisingly potent offense, ranking 30th in Division I in field goal percentage (49.3) and 30th in scoring average (81.0 points per game). Throw in a top-15 rebounding attack (40.5 per game) and it's easy to see why Yale has positioned itself to make just its second March Madness appearance in 57 years. The Bulldogs have a busy weekend ahead, facing off against Dartmouth on Friday before their hotly anticipated rematch with Harvard on Saturday.
National Title Odds
Duke still has plenty of real estate between itself and the rest of the pack in terms of national championship odds, but the gap has shrunk a little. The Blue Devils are down to +225 to win the NCAA title, and could slip further depending on how they play with Williamson sidelined. Gonzaga remains second in the odds race but has moved up to +850.
Betting Trends
Home underdogs are strong ATS options heading into one of the final weekends of the regular season, having converted at better than a 57-percent clip over the previous seven days worth of games. Home teams in general have been the superior cover option over the past week, making good nearly 53 percent of the time.
Overs were the play earlier in the week, but the under has quickly regained its superiority with a 50.7-percent conversion rate over the previous week; non-overtime games went under 53.6 percent of the time. The under is at 52.2 percent on all games over the past 30 days and sits at a healthy 51.9 percent for the season.
Ole Miss is turning heads as a sensational double threat. The Rebels own the second-best overall ATS record among Division I teams, having covered 19 of their 26 games so far this season to go along with an 18-8 SU record. But times have been a bit tougher of late, with Ole Miss having won outright and covered in just three of its past nine games.
Buffalo Smoulders
Say what you will about the Buffalo Bulls, but those guys can score. The Bulls (-15.5) enter Friday night's MAC encounter with the Kent State Golden Flashes fresh off a 114-67 evisceration of the Ohio Bobcats on Tuesday. It's the third time the Bulls have scored at least 110 points in a game this season, a major reason why they're ranked fourth in the nation in scoring average at 85.9 points per game. And Buffalo has responded well following a triple-digit outburst in recent history, having gone 5-1 ATS in their past six games in that situation. The Bulls also rank second in average home scoring margin at +24.0.
Duke Undermanned at the Dome
It was the Sneaker Tear Heard 'Round the World – and it could result in the consensus No. 1 prospect in the country out of the Duke Blue Devils' lineup for a while. Zion Williamson suffered a mild knee sprain after ripping his shoe just 33 seconds into Duke's 88-72 home loss to rival North Carolina on Wednesday night, and will miss for the Blue Devils' Saturday encounter with Syracuse at the daunting Carrier Dome. The Under might be the superior play in this one; Duke is 7-17-2 O/U for the season and could struggle to replace Williamson's 21.6 points per game, while Syracuse is 5-12-0 O/U at home.
Another Big Win?
North Carolina's 16-point road win over the rival Blue Devils puts the Tar Heels on the fast track to a major rankings boost – but they can ill afford to take it easy Saturday as they host the nationally-ranked Florida State Seminoles. North Carolina saw its national title odds jump to +1,300 with the victory in Duke and are in good shape to keep the good times rolling: The eighth-ranked Tar Heels have covered seven of their past nine games and are 9-3 ATS in their previous 12 following a victory. But the 16th-ranked Seminoles are no slouch, as they come in on a five-game cover streak of their own.
Points A-Plenty in Ann Arbor
Oddsmakers often tab games between Michigan and Michigan State as low-scoring affairs – but the Wolverine State rivals have filled the bucket in their recent encounters and will look to do the same as they face off Sunday in Ann Arbor. The Wolverines and Spartans have converted the over in eight of their previous 10 meetings dating back to the start of 2014, including the past three encounters – each won and covered by Michigan. The winning team produced 75 or more points in each of those eight overs, with the final score exceeding the total by double digits six times in that stretch.
Mid-Major to Watch: Yale Bulldogs (17-4 SU, 12-8 ATS, 9-11 O/U)
You won't see many Ivy League teams in this space but given that the conference will produce at least one NCAA Tournament entrant this year, it's only fair to look at which team might make it to March Madness. And the Bulldogs enter the weekend with the best shot at representing the Ivy League in the final 68, leading Harvard by one game – with its only conference loss coming to the Crimson earlier this month. There's a decent chance Yale will be able to exact its revenge in Saturday's rematch.
The Bulldogs have boasted a surprisingly potent offense, ranking 30th in Division I in field goal percentage (49.3) and 30th in scoring average (81.0 points per game). Throw in a top-15 rebounding attack (40.5 per game) and it's easy to see why Yale has positioned itself to make just its second March Madness appearance in 57 years. The Bulldogs have a busy weekend ahead, facing off against Dartmouth on Friday before their hotly anticipated rematch with Harvard on Saturday.
National Title Odds
Duke still has plenty of real estate between itself and the rest of the pack in terms of national championship odds, but the gap has shrunk a little. The Blue Devils are down to +225 to win the NCAA title, and could slip further depending on how they play with Williamson sidelined. Gonzaga remains second in the odds race but has moved up to +850.
Betting Trends
Home underdogs are strong ATS options heading into one of the final weekends of the regular season, having converted at better than a 57-percent clip over the previous seven days worth of games. Home teams in general have been the superior cover option over the past week, making good nearly 53 percent of the time.
Overs were the play earlier in the week, but the under has quickly regained its superiority with a 50.7-percent conversion rate over the previous week; non-overtime games went under 53.6 percent of the time. The under is at 52.2 percent on all games over the past 30 days and sits at a healthy 51.9 percent for the season.
Ole Miss is turning heads as a sensational double threat. The Rebels own the second-best overall ATS record among Division I teams, having covered 19 of their 26 games so far this season to go along with an 18-8 SU record. But times have been a bit tougher of late, with Ole Miss having won outright and covered in just three of its past nine games.
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