The Bum's 2018 NBA Trends/Stats/Best Bets Thru The Playoffs !

[StarDust Bum]

NBA Playoffs - Game 7 Facts

Game 7 Quick Facts

-- The NBA has had 132 Game 7’s in playoff history

-- The home team is 104-28 (79%) in those games

-- The 2018 NBA playoffs has had four Game 7's and road teams captured two wins.

Eastern Conference First Round - Cleveland 105 vs. Indiana 101
Eastern Conference First Round - Boston 112 vs. Milwaukee 96
Eastern Conference Finals - Cleveland 87 at Boston 79
Western Conference Finals - Golden State 101 at Houston 92

-- The 2017 NBA playoffs only had two Game 7's and the results were split with the Jazz capturing a rare road victory.

Western Conference First Round - Utah 104 at L.A. Clippers 91
Eastern Conference Semifinals - Boston 115 vs. Washington 105

-- The 2016 NBA playoffs had five Game 7's played and the home team won four games (3-2 ATS), two of the victories coming by double digits.

Eastern Conference First Round - Miami 106 vs. Charlotte 73
Eastern Conference First Round - Toronto 89 vs. Indiana 84
Eastern Conference Semifinals - Toronto 116 vs. Miami 89
Western Conference Finals - Golden State 96 vs. Oklahoma City 88
NBA Finals - Cleveland 93 at Golden State 89

-- The 2015 postseason featured two Game 7's. The home team went 2-0 with the Los Angeles Clippers and Houston Rockets capturing victories.

-- The 2014 postseason featured five Game 7's. The home team went 4-1 in those games and the lone visitor to win was Brooklyn, who defeated Toronto 104-103 in overtime.


San Antonio Game 7 Recent History

The Spurs have played in 10 Game 7's in franchise history. They've gone 4-6 in those contests, losing their last encounter in the 2015 playoffs on the road.

2015 First Round
San Antonio 109 at L.A. Clippers 111

2014 First Round
San Antonio 119 vs. Dallas 96

2013 Finals
San Antonio 88 at Miami 95


Denver Game 7 Recent History

The Nuggets have only played in three Game 7's in franchise history. They've gone 1-2 in those games with the last matchup coming in 2012.

2012 First Round
Denver 87 at L.A. Lakers 96

[StarDust Bum]

SATURDAY, APRIL 27
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

PHI at TOR 07:30 PM
PHI +6.5
O 223.0

SA at DEN 10:00 PM
SA +6.0
O 209.0

[StarDust Bum]

B]Nuggets beat Spurs in Game 7; Leonard has 45 in Raptors win
April 28, 2019
By The Associated Press[/B]

DENVER (AP) Nikola Jokic had a triple-double, Jamal Murray hit a clutch floater with 36.8 seconds remaining and the Denver Nuggets held off the San Antonio Spurs 90-86 in Game 7 on Saturday night to advance in the postseason for the first time in a decade.

In a matchup between a Denver team with the youngest playoff roster in the West and the savvy Spurs, the second-seeded Nuggets built a 17-point lead in the third quarter only to see it whittled down to two with 52 seconds remaining.

Jokic finished with 21 points, 15 rebounds and 10 assists, with no pass bigger than the one to set up Murray's floater. DeMar DeRozan had a chance to slice into the deficit but was blocked by Torrey Craig. Then, the Spurs didn't foul and the Nuggets were able to essentially run out the clock.

Since making the Western Conference finals in 2009, the Nuggets have bowed out in the first round on four occasions. This was their first playoff appearance in six seasons.

Denver will host third-seeded Portland in a series that begins Monday.

RAPTORS 108, 76ERS 95

TORONTO (AP) - Kawhi Leonard scored a career playoff-high 45 points and grabbed 11 rebounds, Pascal Siakam added 29 points and Toronto beat Philadelphia in Game 1 of their Eastern Conference semifinal series.

Leonard matched his career-best scoring total for any game, set Jan. 1 against Utah. He made 16 of 22 shots, going 3 of 6 from 3-point range, and went 10 for 11 at the free throw line.

Kyle Lowry had nine points and eight assists as the Raptors led by as many as 20 en route to their fifth straight postseason victory, extending a franchise record.

Toronto won its 14th consecutive home meeting with Philadelphia and improved to 22-3 against the 76ers since the start of the 2013-14 season. No other opponent has beaten Philadelphia more often over the past five seasons.

Tobias Harris had 14 points and 15 rebounds, and JJ Redick scored 17 points for the 76ers, whose four-game playoff winning streak was snapped.

[StarDust Bum]

SCHEDULE FOR SUNDAY APRIL 28, 2019
Time (ET) Away Home Site
1:05 PM Boston Celtics Milwaukee Bucks Fiserv Forum
3:00 PM Utah Jazz Houston Rockets Toyota Center
3:35 PM Houston Rockets Golden State Warriors ORACLE Arena


*************************************


NBA PLAYOFF RECORD OPINIONS AND BEST BETS !

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD


04/27/2019 1-3-0 25.00% -11.50
04/26/2019 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50
04/25/2019 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50
04/24/2019 1-3-0 25.00% -11.50
04/23/2019 2-6-0 25.00% -23.00
04/22/2019 1-3-0 25.00% -11.50
04/21/2019 3-5-0 37.50% -12.50
04/20/2019 4-4-0 50.00% -2.00
04/19/2019 3-3-0 50.00% -1.50
04/18/2019 2-4-0 33.33% -12.00
04/17/2019 6-0-0 100.00% +30.00
04/16/2019 3-3-0 50.00% -1.50
04/15/2019 0-2-0 0.00% -11.00
04/14/2019 4-4-0 50.00% -2.00
04/13/2019 7-1-0 87.50% +29.50

Totals..............39-42-0 48.14% -40.50


******************************


BEST BETS:

DATE........................ATS................... ..UNITS..................O/U..................UNITS.............TOTALS


04/27/2019.............1 - 1.....................-0.50....................0 - 2................-11.00..............-11.50
04/26/2019.............0 - 1.....................-5.50....................1 - 0................+5.00..............-0.50
04/25/2019.............1 - 0.....................+5.00...................0 - 1................-5.50................-0.50
04/24/2019.............0 - 2.....................-11.00...................1 - 1................-0.50...............-11.50
04/23/2019.............2 - 2.....................-1.00....................4 - 8.................-22.00.............-23.00
04/22/2019.............1 - 1.....................-0.50....................0 - 2.................-11.00.............-11.50
04/21/2019.............2 - 2 .....................-1.00...................1 - 3.................-11.50..............-12.50
04/20/2019.............1 - 3.....................-11.50..................3 - 0................+15.00.............+3.50
04/19/2019.............1 - 2.....................-6.00....................2 - 1................+4.50...............-1.50
04/18/2019.............1 - 1.....................-0.50....................1 - 2................-6.00................-6.50
04/17/2019.............3 - 0....................+15.00..................3 - 0................+15.00.............+30.00
04/16/2019.............1 - 1.....................-0.50....................1 - 1.................-0.50...............-1.00
04/15/2019.............0 - 1.....................-5.50....................0 - 1.................-5.50...............-11.00
04/14/2019.............2 - 2.....................-1.00....................2 - 2.................-1.00...............-2.00
04/13/2019.............3 - 0.....................+15.00.................3 - 0.................+15.00............+30.00

Totals....................19 - 19..................-9.50.................22 - 24................-20.00................-29.50

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday’s 6-pack

— 49 of 144 underclassmen who declared for the NFL Draft went undrafted.

— Broncos signed Boise State QB Brett Rypien (Mark Rypien’s nephew).

— Chiefs signed Vanderbilt QB Kyle Shurmur, son of Giants’ coach Pat Shurmur.

— Delaware WR Vince Papale Jr signed on with the Raiders.

— Undrafted U of Buffalo QB Tyree Jackson signed as a free agent with the Bills about five minutes after the draft ended.

— Alabama had most players drafted (10), followed by Ohio State (9), then Georgia, Oklahoma, Washington (8 each) and Texas A&M (7).

Quote of the Day
“There was a time when the NFL wouldn’t even allow Las Vegas to advertise during the Super Bowl, and the next thing you know we have an NFL team and could be hosting the Super Bowl soon. So, the climate changes very quickly.”
Jay Kornegay, Executive VP, Westgate SuperBook

Sunday’s quiz
How many Division I-A football teams are located in the state of Tennessee?

Saturday’s quiz
Vinny Del Negro was coach of the Clippers before Doc Rivers.

Friday’s quiz
Texas Tech is located in Lubbock, TX

**************************

Sunday’s List of 13; Clearing out a cluttered mind……

13) Utah had both its punter and kicker taken Saturday, the first time since 1985 (Clemson) that a team had both its kicking specialists taken in the same draft. Both kids are Australian, too.

12) Oklahoma obviously had the last two Heisman Trophy winners, and maybe this is why; four of the top 123 players taken in this year’s draft were offensive linemen for the Sooners.

11) Benny Snell, the Kentucky RB picked by the Steelers in the 4th round, is the grandson of former Jets’ RB Matt Snell, who started for the Jets in Super Bowl III.

10) More than $106M was bet legally in New Jersey this year on the NCAA Tournament.

9) Clemson football coach Dabo Swinney signed a 10-year, $93M contract extension that keeps in orange until 2028 and makes him really, really rich.

8) In his last five PGA golf Championships, Brooks Koepka is a combined 47 under par; PGA moves up to May on the schedule this year, after recently being held in mid-to-late August.

7) Baseball injuries:
— Pirates put P Chris Archer (thumb) on IL.
— Royals put 1B Lucas Duda on IL.
— Tigers put P Jordan Zimmerman (elbow) on IL.

6) 6-4 guard Christian Keeling scored 19.1 ppg for Charleston Southern LY; he scored 25 against Clemson, 18 against both Florida/Marquette.

He transferred to North Carolina this week; thats the new thing, kids who score double digits for low major schools being poached by big money teams that have holes on their roster.

5) Guard Seventh Woods is transferring away from North Carolina, first Tar Heel to do that since 2011, and only fifth transfer out of Chapel Hill in the Roy Williams era.

4) Today Show host Willie Geist is the great grandson of Herbie Lewis, who played for the Detroit Red Wings in the 1930’s and is in the Hockey Hall of Fame.

3) NHL’s St Louis Blues made the Stanley Cup finals the first three years they were in existence (1968-70), went 0-12 in those three finals series, and have never been back to the finals, despite making the playoffs in 42 of their 51 seasons in the NHL.

When the NHL expanded from six to 12 teams for the ’67-’68 season, they put the six new teams in the same division, and the Blues were the best of those teams right off the bat.

2) Chargers drafted a QB from North Dakota State in the 5th round; Easton Stick, who was 49-3 as a starter for the Bison— he replaced Carson Wentz as QB at North Dakota State, and figures to replace Philip Rivers down the road with the Chargers.

1) Alex, I’d like “Irony for $500” please: If you went to the NRA’s annual convention Friday, guns weren’t allowed inside.

[StarDust Bum]

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday's Playoff Essentials
Tony Mejia

Eastern Conference Semifinals – Game 1

No. 4 Boston at No. 1 Milwaukee (-7.5/223.5), ABC, 1:05 p.m. ET

Feb. 21 - Bucks (-6) 98 vs. Celtics 97 (Under 227)
Dec. 21 – Bucks (-1.5) 120 at Celtics 107 (Over 223.5)
Nov. 1 - Celtics (-2) 117 vs. Bucks 113 (Over 220.5)

The Bucks saw their season at the hands of the Celtics on April 28, 2018.

On this one-year anniversary of their last playoff loss, they’ll look to prove how much better off they are with Mike Budenholzer at the helm and a host of bigs who can stretch the floor now on the roster. Jabari Parker and John Henson have been replaced by Nikola Mirotic and Brook Lopez, which is really quite extraordinary considering the results Budenholzer’s system and those personnel tweaks have produced.

Milwaukee posted the NBA’s best record, led in margin of victory and has rightfully become the Eastern Conference betting favorite.

Giannis Antetokounmpo is the likely MVP, Khris Middleton became an All-Star and Budenholzer is going to be your Coach of the Year.

With Lopez, Mirotic and Ersan Ilyasova in place to help spread the floor, Antetokounmpo has had more room to work in the paint and outlets to pass the ball out to when he’s inevitably doubled. Operating at the NBA’s fifth-fastest pace throughout the regular season helped the Bucks average a league-high 118.1 points per game, finishing third in the league in offensive efficiency. Milwaukee also led the NBA in defensive efficiency, emerging as an elite team. The Westgate Superbook set a series price on this favoring Milwaukee (-275) and offering a healthy return if you're backing the Celtics (+225).

Boston head coach Brad Stevens, who nearly lost to interim head coach Joe Prunty in last season’s 2-7 pairing, matches wits against a peer who went 14-10 against him when with the Hawks. That includes “Coach Bud” winning the only playoff series in which they’ve crossed paths. Atlanta, then led by Al Horford, beat the Celtics in 2016, holding Stevens’ offense under 100 points in three of the wins, which included holding them to 72 and 83 points when they came through town.

That Boston team was led by Isaiah Thomas, who while explosive, has never been what Kyrie Irving is now. Combine that with the fact Horford will now be anchoring the defense Budenholzer now has to solve gives Stevens a great chance to get even despite being the series underdog this time around. Celtics-Hawks was the 4-5 matchup four years ago and the highly-regarded Stevens has again led his team to a fourth-place finish in the conference despite entering the season as a heavy favorite to win the East (5-to-6, +120 at Westgate LV Superbook) over the Raptors (11-to-4, +275) and 76ers (13-to-4, +325). The Bucks came in at 14-to-1 (+1400) to win the conference and 80-to-1 to win the championship, so if you’re in on either of those futures, you’re in a great spot but should be wary of Boston finally getting its act together to reach the conference finals for a third straight time.

Since losing to Budenholzer’s Hawks, Stevens has won four of six playoff series and has managed to do so without Irving, who was in Cleveland in ’17 and was injured during last year’s playoff run, which ended one victory shy of an NBA Finals appearance. With Gordon Hayward also expected to be healthy, you can see why big things were expected from Boston back in October, but chemistry issues and the improvement of Milwaukee, Toronto and Philadelphia have knocked them back down the pecking order. According to Westgate, the Celtics came in to this postseason at 4-to-1 (+400) to get out of the East, odds that were equal to the 76ers and behind the Bucks (5-to-4, +125) and Raptors (9-to-4, +225).

It didn’t help matters that they lost emotional leader Marcus Smart, a tremendous perimeter defender and a competitor whose intensity is infectious, tore his oblique just before the playoffs began. He’s been seen running and is grinding to get back far ahead of schedule but has been ruled out for Game 1 despite traveling to Milwaukee to be there with his team. His absence has forced Jaylen Brown into the starting lineup and has freed up more minutes for Hayward off the bench, which at least gives two wings who struggled with finding a consistent rhythm this season more opportunities for touches and increased playing time.

Both had their moments in Boston’s first-round series sweep of the Pacers, who had their chances to win in every single fourth quarter but couldn’t make shots when it mattered most. While the Celtics certainly had a lot to do with that, the Pacers’ lack of firepower was also a factor and should be of concern since the Bucks don’t have those issues. Milwaukee averaged 121.8 in their four-game sweep of the Pistons which failed to truly test in in the first round. Although Blake Griffin missed two of the contests, Detroit led at halftime twice but truly stood no chance, failing to cover even once in losing by a combined margin of 95 points (23.8 ppg).

Antetokounmpo averaged 31 points, 10.7 rebounds and 4.3 assists while shooting 59 percent in leading the Bucks to a 2-1 regular-season mark against Boston. Middleton shot just 36.5 percent but averaged 17.3 points, 8.7 rebounds and 4.7 assists.

The Bucks were the East’s top home team this season, posting a 33-8 mark during the regular season, one game behind Denver. The Celtics were the final victim at the Bradley Center, losing in Game 6 of last year’s first round. They were facing the challenge of trying to close out that building and a series and ultimately lost 97-86. Boston will now look to get on the board at Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee’s new downtown arena in which they’ve only played in once, losing 98-97 in its first game out of the break. The Celtics were just 21-20 on the road during the regular season. VI NBA expert Kevin Rogers believes how they come out of the visiting locker room will be a determining factor.

“For the first time in eight playoff series, the Celtics are starting on the road,” Rogers said. “Boston fell by one point at Atlanta in that 2017 first-round opener. The Celtics and Bucks’ last series apparently never started as the home team won each game with Boston capturing Game 7 at TD Garden. Boston has dropped five consecutive visits to Milwaukee, while last winning in Wisconsin in October 2017. The Celtics went through a 2-11 stretch on the road in the postseason from 2017-18 prior to beating Indiana twice on the highway in this season’s opening round.”

Horford was absent for Boston’s 13-point loss vs. Bucks and played in their home win and narrow road loss, so staying on the floor has to be a priority. Antetokounmpo often seeks out contact, so Horford will be tasked with avoiding foul trouble while still doing his best to protect the rim since backups Aron Baynes and Daniel Theis both had injury-related issues down the stretch. Irving shot 46.5 percent on 3-pointers against the Bucks despite shooting just 38.8 from the field, but he outplayed counterpart Eric Bledsoe, averaging 21.7 points, 4.3 boards and 6.3 assists. Bledsoe, who was outperformed by Celtics backup Terry Rozier with Irving sidelined for last year’s playoff series, shot just 25 percent from 3-point range against Boston this season and averaged just 11.3 points. He’s had a tremendous year and was a borderline All-Star, so the Bucks are counting on him elevating his game to match his level of competition. How he settles in at both ends will play a crucial role in the series.

Third-year guard Malcolm Brogdon will miss at least the first two games of this series with a foot injury that has kept him out the past few weeks, which means Bledsoe will have less of a safety net. Backup George Hill is a proven veteran performer, but Brogdon led the league in free-throw shooting this season while shooting nearly 43 percent and playing fantastic perimeter defense. The hope is that he’ll be a factor deeper into the series, so the Celtics should feel a sense of urgency to try and steal one of these first two games in Milwaukee.

Oddsmakers sent out an opening total of 224 ½ for Game 1 and the number is sitting at 223 ½ at most books as of Saturday. During the season, the pair watched the ‘over’ go 2-1 in their three games and the totals ranged from 220 ½ to 227 ½. Chris David of VegasInsider.com respects the opening number and expects an adjustment for Game 2.

“This isn’t an easy series to handicap since both teams will be without key defensive players,” said David. “The most recent meeting in February (98-97) could be a sign of things to come in this series. Boston head coach Brad Stevens hasn’t had much success in the playoffs on the road, going 7-16 SU and 12-11 ATS. Scoring has been the issue and that lack of productivity has led to a 15-8 ‘under’ mark. The Celtics will enter this matchup with more firepower than ever before under Stevens and we all know how potent the Bucks can be when the shots are falling from distance. However, both teams are sound defensively and their numbers are on that side of the ball are often overlooked. I’m leaning to grinder in Game 1 and I believe the ‘under’ is worth a look in the afternoon matinee.”

The ’under’ went 5-1 in that 2016 series between Stevens’ Celtics and Budenholzer’s Hawks despite no total closing higher than 206 and the last two winding up sub-200. Game 2 will be played Tuesday night in Milwaukee.


Western Conference Semifinals – Game 1

No. 4 Houston at No. 1 Golden State (-5.5/224.5), ABC, 3:35 p.m. ET

March 13 – Warriors (+4) 106 vs. Rockets 104 (Under 228)
Feb. 23 – Rockets (+12) 118 at Warriors 112 (Under 232)
Jan. 3 – Rockets (+8.5) 135 at Warriors 134 (Over 225.5)
Nov. 15 – Rockets (-4) 107 vs. Warriors 86 (Under 217.5)

The series we’ve all been anticipated has arrived.

The Houston Rockets are going to get another crack at the Warriors.

You won’t find anyone associated with last year’s Rockets who isn’t haunted by the fact they let Golden State off the hook in blowing a 3-2 series lead in the ’18 Western Conference finals. The what-if game is strong within their group for good reason, since Chris Paul’s hamstring injury kept him out of Games 6 and 7, allowing the Warriors to more easily impose their will. Harden struggled to hit shots and lift his team in a season where he’d eventually be named MVP, so that award is forever tarnished for him.

All that angst and regret could wind up a formidable driving force for Houston, which bolstered its belief that it can take down the Warriors by winning three of the four regular-season meetings, losing only the most recent one in March by a single bucket. The Westgate Superbook sent out early series price numbers that installed Golden State as a favorite of -360 and placed Houston at +280 but amended them to make the Warriors a -275 favorite with the Rockets at +225, numbers identical to the Bucks-Celtics series.

For the Warriors, this may end up being the toughest obstacle they must overcome in order to secure a three-peat. The Rockets view this as a vendetta and are mighty capable of executing efficiently enough to keep up with the Warriors, who looked extremely vulnerable on the defensive end in losing two games in their first-round series against the Clippers. While Kevin Durant exploited his mismatches late in the series after originally playing facilitator, Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson were inconsistent on the offensive end, struggling with their outside shot against L.A. DeMarcus Cousins’ ruptured quad in Game 2 takes him out of the equation for the rest of the postseason, forcing centers Andrew Bogut and Kevon Looney into larger roles.

Golden State appears vulnerable. The fact this long-awaited series is coming one round earlier than it would’ve had the Rockets not finished as the No. 4 seed due to wild final night of the regular-season helps to dispel the narrative that Houston will run out of gas like it did last season, especially given how impressive the team was in eliminating Utah. Getting an extra few days of rest by defeating the Jazz in five games provided a significant boost since center Clint Capela has been dealing with multiple viruses that sapped his strength towards the latter part of their first-round series. With the worst behind him, the Rockets are healthier than they have been all season as this rematch approaches. We’ll see if that helps them dent Golden State’s brilliant record in Game 1 of the conference semifinals.

“During the Warriors’ four-year run as Western Conference champions, Golden State owns a 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS mark in the opener of the second round,” pointed out VI’s Rogers. “The lone non-cover came against Utah in 2017 as 13-point favorites in a 106-94 win, but the Warriors have won by margins of 22, 12, 12, and 15 points in these games. The last time Houston was listed as an underdog in Game 1 of the conference semifinals came at San Antonio two years ago as the Rockets crushed the Spurs, 126-99 when receiving six points.”

Golden State is also looking to restore some of the fear factor its homecourt advantage is supposed to pack after suffering two memorable losses at Oracle Arena against the Clips. Their inability to get stops was glaring and undoubtedly feeds Houston’s confidence as it looks to come in and hang a big number in Oakland, where it won only once in three tries last postseason, evening the series at 2-2 with a 95-92 victory in Game 4. The Warriors blew out Houston 115-86 in Game 6 with Paul lost for the series, sending the message that the Rockets were doomed. Paul going out there at 100 percent to open this series is a big deal, so monitor his play early since I’d expect Harden to defer the catalyst role to him in an effort to get teammates going.

The total for Game 1 opened at 228 and the line dropped quickly to 225 ½. VI’s David offered up his thoughts on the opening number and move.

“This will be the fourth time in the last five years that the pair will meet in the postseason and the first three series has rewarded total bettors that have leaned to the low side. During this span, the ‘under’ has gone 14-3 (82.3%) in their 17 playoff meetings and that includes an 8-1 record at Oracle Arena. Delving into those nine games further, the Rockets were held under 100 points in seven of their trips to Oakland,” said David.

“Even though Houston scored 118 and 135 points in two wins at Golden State this regular season, it’s hard to ignore the postseason scoring issues away from home. The Rockets put up 104 in Game 3 of the first round at Utah but fell apart in Game 4 and only managed to score 12 points in the four quarter. They ended up with 91 points in that loss and it’s safe to say they’ll need to break the century mark for a win on Sunday afternoon. Knowing the Rockets have seen the ‘under’ cash in seven straight road games makes me want to lean ‘under’ in Game 1 but until Houston can snap out of this playoff funk, playing its Team Total Under (109 ½) looks more valuable to me.”

Game 2 will take place on Tuesday night in Oakland.

[StarDust Bum]

551Boston -552 Milwaukee
MILWAUKEE is 42-25 ATS (14.5 Units) versus up-tempo teams averaging 88 or more shots/game in the last 3 seasons

555Houston -556 Golden State
GOLDEN STATE is 11-24 ATS (-15.4 Units) on Sunday games in the last 3 seasons.




NBA
Dunkel

Sunday, April 28


Boston @ Milwaukee

Game 551-552
April 28, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Boston
121.751
Milwaukee
127.275
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Milwaukee
by 5 1/2
229
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Milwaukee
by 7 1/2
223
Dunkel Pick:
Boston
(+7 1/2); Over

Houston @ Golden State

Game 555-556
April 28, 2019 @ 3:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Houston
129.622
Golden State
123.301
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 6 1/2
211
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Golden State
by 5 1/2
224 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Houston
(+5 1/2); Under




NBA
Long Sheet

Sunday, April 28

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BOSTON (53 - 33) at MILWAUKEE (64 - 22) - 4/28/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MILWAUKEE is 51-32 ATS (+15.8 Units) in all games this season.
MILWAUKEE is 41-29 ATS (+9.1 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 220 this season.
MILWAUKEE is 44-29 ATS (+12.1 Units) as a favorite this season.
MILWAUKEE is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) in the second half of the season this season.
MILWAUKEE is 28-17 ATS (+9.3 Units) after a win by 10 points or more this season.
MILWAUKEE is 41-27 ATS (+11.3 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
MILWAUKEE is 40-25 ATS (+12.5 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
BOSTON is 102-79 ATS (+15.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 32-20 ATS (+10.0 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 78-58 ATS (+14.2 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
BOSTON is 15-7 ATS (+7.3 Units) against Central division opponents this season.
BOSTON is 27-14 ATS (+11.6 Units) in all playoff games over the last 3 seasons.
BOSTON is 37-25 ATS (+9.5 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 54-39 ATS (+11.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 72-54 ATS (+12.6 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 67-111 ATS (-55.1 Units) after 3 or more consecutive wins since 1996.
MILWAUKEE is 211-258 ATS (-72.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON is 12-5 against the spread versus MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON is 9-8 straight up against MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
11 of 16 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

HOUSTON (57 - 30) at GOLDEN STATE (61 - 27) - 4/28/2019, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GOLDEN STATE is 139-103 ATS (+25.7 Units) in April games since 1996.
GOLDEN STATE is 71-47 ATS (+19.3 Units) in all playoff games since 1996.
GOLDEN STATE is 89-61 ATS (+21.9 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
HOUSTON is 127-96 ATS (+21.4 Units) after 3 or more consecutive unders since 1996.
HOUSTON is 26-17 ATS (+7.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 38-49 ATS (-15.9 Units) in all games this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 34-46 ATS (-16.6 Units) as a favorite this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 17-26 ATS (-11.6 Units) in home games this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 14-23 ATS (-11.3 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 220 this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 11-24 ATS (-15.4 Units) on Sunday games over the last 3 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 33-47 ATS (-18.7 Units) after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 48-62 ATS (-20.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 30-44 ATS (-18.4 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 13-22 ATS (-11.2 Units) in home games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 9-8 against the spread versus GOLDEN STATE over the last 3 seasons
GOLDEN STATE is 9-9 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
13 of 18 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Sunday, April 28

Home team won nine of last ten Boston-Milwaukee games; Celtics are 2-2 vs spread in last four visits to Wisconsin. Seven of last ten series games went over the total. Boston swept Indiana in first round; Celtics covered their last five road games. Three of last four Boston games stayed under the total. Bucks also swept their first round series, winning all four games by 16+ points; they’re 2-3 vs spread in last five home games. Eight of last ten Milwaukee games went over.

Rockets are 5-3 in their last eight games with Golden State; they covered three of last four visits to Oakland. Eight of last nine series games stayed under the total. Golden State won ten of its last 13 games overall; they dispatched the Clippers in Game 6 Friday night. Warriors are 2-3 vs spread in last five home games. Four of last five Golden State games went over. Houston beat the Jazz in five games; they’ve been off since Wednesday. Rockets won eight of last ten games overall, are 3-2 vs spread in last five road games. Five of their last six games stayed under.




NBA

Sunday, April 28

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Boston Celtics
Boston is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Boston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Boston is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Boston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Boston's last 11 games on the road
Boston is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games when playing Milwaukee
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Boston's last 12 games when playing Milwaukee
Boston is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee
Boston is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee
Milwaukee Bucks
Milwaukee is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Milwaukee is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Milwaukee's last 11 games
Milwaukee is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 games when playing Boston
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Milwaukee's last 12 games when playing Boston
Milwaukee is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games when playing at home against Boston
Milwaukee is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Boston

Houston Rockets
Houston is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games
Houston is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 6 games
Houston is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Houston's last 12 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Houston's last 9 games when playing Golden State
Houston is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Golden State
Houston is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Golden State
Houston is 5-13 SU in its last 18 games when playing on the road against Golden State
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games when playing on the road against Golden State
Golden State Warriors
Golden State is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Golden State's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Golden State's last 9 games when playing Houston
Golden State is 2-5-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing at home against Houston
Golden State is 13-5 SU in its last 18 games when playing at home against Houston
Golden State is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Golden State's last 5 games when playing at home against Houston

[StarDust Bum]

SUNDAY, APRIL 28
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

BOS at MIL 01:00 PM
BOS +7.5
O 223.5

HOU at GS 03:30 PM
HOU +5.5
U 224.0

[StarDust Bum]

Road teams come to play on Sunday
April 28, 2019
By The Associated Press

OAKLAND, Calif. (AP) Kevin Durant scored 35 points in outdueling James Harden and the Golden State Warriors held off the Houston Rockets 104-100 on Sunday in the opener of what is shaping up to be a sensational best-of-seven Western Conference semifinal.

Houston's Chris Paul was ejected with 4.4 seconds left for a second technical. He had rebounded a missed 3-pointer by Harden that could have tied the game with 9 seconds left and was arguing for a foul.

Draymond Green added 14 points, nine assists and nine rebounds for the two-time defending champion Warriors, who are meeting the Rockets in the postseason for the fourth time in five years and with Houston having never been victorious.

Harden scored 35 points and Eric Gordon 27 after both struggled early finding their shooting strokes for the cold-shooting Rockets. They shot 14 for 47 from long range and were without reserve guard Austin Rivers because of an illness.

CELTICS 112, BUCKS 90

MILWAUKEE (AP) - Kyrie Irving had 26 points and 11 assists, Al Horford added 20 points and 11 rebounds, and Boston cruised past Milwaukee in the opener of their second-round playoff series.

Jaylen Brown chipped in with 19 points and Gordon Hayward had 13 off the bench for the Celtics. Boston controlled the game for long stretches and played stingy defense against MVP candidate Giannis Antetokoumpo, who scored 22 points but shot just 7 for 21. Antetokounmpo didn't make his first field goal until the first minute of the second quarter.

Game 2 is Tuesday in Milwaukee.

Khris Middleton had 16 for Milwaukee, which completed a four-game sweep of the Detroit Pistons on Monday and advanced to the second round of the playoffs for the first time since 2001. The Celtics came off a sweep of their own against Indiana.

[StarDust Bum]

SCHEDULE FOR MONDAY APRIL 29, 2019
Time (ET) Away Home Site
8:05 PM Philadelphia 76ers Toronto Raptors Scotiabank Arena
10:35 PM Portland Trail Blazers Denver Nuggets Pepsi Center


*********************************


NBA PLAYOFF RECORD OPINIONS AND BEST BETS !

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

04/28/2019 3-1-0 75.00% +9.50
04/27/2019 1-3-0 25.00% -11.50
04/26/2019 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50
04/25/2019 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50
04/24/2019 1-3-0 25.00% -11.50
04/23/2019 2-6-0 25.00% -23.00
04/22/2019 1-3-0 25.00% -11.50
04/21/2019 3-5-0 37.50% -12.50
04/20/2019 4-4-0 50.00% -2.00
04/19/2019 3-3-0 50.00% -1.50
04/18/2019 2-4-0 33.33% -12.00
04/17/2019 6-0-0 100.00% +30.00
04/16/2019 3-3-0 50.00% -1.50
04/15/2019 0-2-0 0.00% -11.00
04/14/2019 4-4-0 50.00% -2.00
04/13/2019 7-1-0 87.50% +29.50

Totals..............42-43-0 49.41% -31.00


******************************


BEST BETS:

DATE........................ATS................... ..UNITS..................O/U..................UNITS.............TOTALS

04/28/2019.............2 - 0 ....................+10.00.................1 - 1................-0.50................+9.50
04/27/2019.............1 - 1.....................-0.50....................0 - 2................-11.00..............-11.50
04/26/2019.............0 - 1.....................-5.50....................1 - 0................+5.00..............-0.50
04/25/2019.............1 - 0.....................+5.00...................0 - 1................-5.50................-0.50
04/24/2019.............0 - 2.....................-11.00...................1 - 1................-0.50...............-11.50
04/23/2019.............2 - 2.....................-1.00....................4 - 8.................-22.00.............-23.00
04/22/2019.............1 - 1.....................-0.50....................0 - 2.................-11.00.............-11.50
04/21/2019.............2 - 2 .....................-1.00...................1 - 3.................-11.50..............-12.50
04/20/2019.............1 - 3.....................-11.50..................3 - 0................+15.00.............+3.50
04/19/2019.............1 - 2.....................-6.00....................2 - 1................+4.50...............-1.50
04/18/2019.............1 - 1.....................-0.50....................1 - 2................-6.00................-6.50
04/17/2019.............3 - 0....................+15.00..................3 - 0................+15.00.............+30.00
04/16/2019.............1 - 1.....................-0.50....................1 - 1.................-0.50...............-1.00
04/15/2019.............0 - 1.....................-5.50....................0 - 1.................-5.50...............-11.00
04/14/2019.............2 - 2.....................-1.00....................2 - 2.................-1.00...............-2.00
04/13/2019.............3 - 0.....................+15.00.................3 - 0.................+15.00............+30.00

Totals....................21 - 19..................+0.50.................23 - 25................-19.50..............-19.00

[StarDust Bum]

[B]Monday’s 6-pack[/B]

Westgate SuperBook posted NFL win totals for 2019:

— New England 11, over -$150

— New Orleans 10.5

— Kansas City 10.5, under -$120

— Los Angeles Rams 10.5, under -$120

— Philadelphia 9.5, over -$150

— Indianapolis 9.5, over -$140

Quote of the Day
“Outstanding leaders go out of the way to boost the self-esteem of their personnel. If people believe in themselves, it’s amazing what they can accomplish.”
Sam Walton

Monday’s quiz
In the football movie Invincible, which is a true story. a 30-year old bartender went to which NFL team’s open tryout and made the team as a special teams player?

Sunday’s quiz
There are Division I-A football teams are located in the state of Tennessee; Vanderbilt, Memphis and Tennessee.

Saturday’s quiz
Vinny Del Negro was coach of the Clippers before Doc Rivers.

**************************

Monday’s List of 13: Wrapping up a sports weekend……..

13) There have already been 20 picks traded in the 2020 NFL Draft.

12) This was the first time since 1962 that no Nebraska players were drafted.

11) Warriors 104, Rockets 100— James Harden was 5-12 inside arc, 4-16 on arc, 13-14 on line; Houston was +3 in the 39:00 he was on the floor. As a team, Rockets took 47 3-pointers (14-47), only 2-pointers.

10) Baseball injuries:
— Christian Yelich left Sunday’s game with lower back discomfort.
— Robinson Cano got hit on the hand, left the same game; x-rays were negative.
— Fernando Tatis Jr (hamstring) left the Padres game in the 10th inning.

9) Going into Sunday’s games, Mets pitchers led NL in strikeouts, but were last in ERA.

Only twice has a team led the league in pitching strikeouts but were last in ERA for a full season; the 1958 Dodgers and the 2007 Devil Rays. Both teams made it to the World Series the year after this happened.

8) It is April 29 but if you’re a Mets fan, it is not too early to worry:
— Jacob deGrom’s ERA in five starts: 4.85
— Noah Syndergaard’s ERA in six starts: 6.35

7) Eight of Met rookie Pete Alonso’s nine HR’s have come against relief pitchers.

6) Milwaukee’s Brandon Woodruff is only lefty-hitting pitcher ever to homer in a postseason game against a lefty pitcher. He homered off of Clayton Kershaw in LY’s playoffs.

5) Buffalo Bills open this season with consecutive games in the Meadowlands, against the Jets in Week 1, then the Giants in Week 2.

4) Former Jaguars/Raiders coach Jack del Rio did a solid job in the studio on the NFL Network telecast of the draft this weekend. Looks like a positive addition to their broadcast team.

3) Jerry Stackhouse is Vanderbilt’s new basketball coach; he signed Scotty Pippen Jr this week. Young Pippen committed to Vandy back when Bryce Drew was the Commodores’ coach, and he officially signed his letter of intent with Vandy this week.

2) Butler poaches 7-foot grad transfer Derrik Smits from Valparaiso; he is the son of former NBA player Rik Smits. Wasn’t so long ago that Butler/Valparaiso were both Horizon League teams (2012)- the last year they were in the same league, Valpo finished three games ahead of Butler in the Horizon.

Seven years later, Butler is in the Big East, Valpo is in the Missouri Valley.

1) Cardinals’ pitching prospect Alex Reyes punched a wall after a recent AAA start and broke the left pinky on his non-throwing hand. Reyes is expected to miss three weeks.

[StarDust Bum]

[StarDust Bum]

561Philadelphia -562 Toronto
TORONTO is 11-1 ATS (9.9 Units) in home games in April games over the last 2 seasons.

563Portland -564 Denver
DENVER is 166-128 ATS (25.2 Units) in home games after having won 2 of their last 3 games since 1996.




NBA
Long Sheet

Monday, April 29

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PHILADELPHIA (55 - 33) at TORONTO (63 - 25) - 4/29/2019, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) in road games vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) in home games in April games over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home games vs. division opponents this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 144-117 ATS (+15.3 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) after a division game this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 79-58 ATS (+15.2 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 46-30 ATS (+13.0 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 79-57 ATS (+16.3 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 46-26 ATS (+17.4 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
TORONTO is 209-263 ATS (-80.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 9-4 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 10-3 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
8 of 13 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PORTLAND (57 - 30) at DENVER (58 - 31) - 4/29/2019, 10:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 7-4 against the spread versus PORTLAND over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 7-5 straight up against PORTLAND over the last 3 seasons
8 of 12 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Monday, April 29

Leonard scored 45 points in Toronto’s 108-95 Game 1 win; Raptors were +26 in his 38:00 on floor, -13 in 10:00 he sat out. Toronto is 5-1 in playoffs this month; they’re 12-2 in last 14 games overall, covering five of last six home games. Under is 7-2-1 in their last ten games. 76ers won six of their last nine games; they covered three of last five road games. Over is 13-7 in their last 20 games. Philly lost four of five games with Toronto this season, losing by 17-11-13 points in their last three games played here. Embiid was 5-18 from floor in Game 1; they need more from him.

Denver won six of its last seven games with Portland; last four series games went over the total. Trailblazers are 1-3-1 vs spread in their last five visits to Colorado. Portland won seven of its last eight games, beating OKC in five games in first round; Blazers covered only once in last four road games. Over is 5-5 in their last ten games. Nuggets beat Spurs in Game 7 Saturday; they’re 2-3 vs spread in last five home games, 3-6 vs spread in last nine games overall. Four of last six Denver games went over. Portland hasn’t played since Tuesday.




NBA

Monday, April 29

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Philadelphia 76ers
Philadelphia is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Philadelphia is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 6 games
Philadelphia is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Toronto
Philadelphia is 3-22 SU in its last 25 games when playing Toronto
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Philadelphia's last 15 games when playing Toronto
Philadelphia is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Toronto
Philadelphia is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Toronto
Toronto Raptors
Toronto is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Toronto is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Toronto's last 7 games
Toronto is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Toronto is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
Toronto is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
Toronto is 22-3 SU in its last 25 games when playing Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Toronto's last 15 games when playing Philadelphia
Toronto is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
Toronto is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Philadelphia

Portland Trail Blazers
Portland is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Portland is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
Portland is 12-6 ATS in its last 18 games on the road
Portland is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Portland is 12-6 SU in its last 18 games on the road
Portland is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Denver
Portland is 16-8 SU in its last 24 games when playing Denver
Portland is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing Denver
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Portland's last 5 games when playing Denver
Portland is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Denver
Portland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Denver
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Portland's last 8 games when playing on the road against Denver
Denver Nuggets
Denver is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games
Denver is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 6 games
Denver is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Denver's last 11 games at home
Denver is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Portland
Denver is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Portland
Denver is 8-16 SU in its last 24 games when playing Portland
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games when playing Portland
Denver is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Portland
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Denver's last 8 games when playing at home against Portland

[StarDust Bum]

MONDAY, APRIL 29
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

PHI at TOR 08:00 PM
PHI +7.0
U 221.0

POR at DEN 10:30 PM
POR +4.0
U 215.5