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Armadillo's Write-Up
Sunday, November 12
College basketball started this weekend; there are a ton of unanswered questions, from eligibility to player rotations. Here is what little info I have on the top 13 games tonight:
UMass struggled to beat Mass-Lowell of America East 74-69 Friday night; Minutemen were just 3-15 on arc, were 23-34 on foul line. UMass lost four transfers after the coaching change last spring, so they’re thin this year. Harvard has four starters back from an 18-10 team; they’ve won 102 games the last five years- they played a D-3 team Friday. Ivy League teams are 2-3 vs spread so far this weekend; A-14 teams are 1-6, all as a favorite. Last two years, A-14 teams are 11-6 vs spread when playing Ivy League opponents.
David Padgett makes his debut as Louisville’s interim coach here; no pressure, replacing Rick Pitino. Cardinals were a top 10 pick before Pitino’s firing; they lost 3 starters from a 25-9 team, but Pitino called this his most athletic team before he left. George Mason lost 67-65 at home to Lafayette of Patriot League Friday; six of their eight guys who played are frosh/sophs. ACC home favorites are 6-2 vs spread so far this weekend. CAA road underdogs are 2-1. Last two years, ACC teams are 8-9 vs spread when playing a CAA opponent.
Cal Bears lost 74-66 at home to Riverside Friday, in a 78-possession track meet; five of 10 Cal kids who played are freshmen- they’re gonna have a long winter, because they want to press but are undermanned. Cal Poly lost 78-62 at Stanford Friday, despite going 10-25 on the arc, only 6-9 on foul line. Mustangs play a much slower pace than Riverside. Pac-12 home favorites are 4-4 vs spread so far this weekend; Big West teams are 3-2 as road underdogs. Last two years, Pac-12 teams are 23-13 vs spread when facing a Big West squad.
San Diego has four starters back from a 13-18, 6-12 team; they’re picked near bottom of WCC again this year. Toreros have a Utah transfer as their new PG, so that should be an upgrade. San Jose State has four starters back from a 14-16, 7-11 team, but they’ve got a new coach- they had improved a lot last season, but Spartans’ best player transferred in August. Mountain West teams are 1-3 vs spread so far this weekend; WCC teams are 0-4 vs spread, 0-3 as an underdog. Last two years, Mountain West teams are 14-12 vs spread when playing a WCC opponent.
Yale lost star G Mason to a stress fracture in his foot, 2nd year in row that happened- they also lost soph F Bruner wit torn meniscus in his knee. Bulldogs lost 92-76 at Creighton Friday. Wisconsin hammered SC State by 35 Friday; they started two frosh and a sophomore. Badgers lost four starters from LY’s 27-10 team. Big 14 teams are 1-2 as a home favorite this weekend. Ivy League teams are 2-2 as a road underdog. Last two years, Big 14 teams are 2-1 vs spread when facing an Ivy League foe.
Butler has a new coach; they beat Kennesaw State 82-64 Friday, despite shooting 6-25 on arc, 12-23 on line- they started two sophs and a junior. Bulldogs are picked in the middle of the Big East pack. Princeton lost three starters from a 23-7 team that lost 60-58 to Notre Dame in the NCAA’s LY, after going 16-0 in Ivy League games. Big East teams are 2-1 as a home favorite this weekend; Ivy League teams are 2-2 as a road underdog. Last two years, Big East teams are 7-1 vs spread against Ivy League opponents.
Stanford starts two juniors, two seniors; they beat Cal Poly 78-62 Friday, making 9-19 on the arc. Cardinal has three starters back from a 14-17, 6-12 team that was 3-10 in its last 13 games. Pacific has three transfers and two JC kids trying to replace four starters who graduated from an 11-22 team in Stoudamire’s first season as coach. WCC teams are 0-4 vs spread, 0-3 as an underdog; Pac-12 home favorites are 4-4 vs spread so far this weekend. Last year, WCC teams were 9-7 vs spread when facing a Pac-12 opponent.
Virginia Tech beat Citadel 113-71 LY; Bulldogs play a break-neck fast pace, so they get killed by teams with better athletes. Hokies made 11-18 on arc in LY’s game. Tech won its first game 111-79 over Detroit Friday; they’ve got four starters back from LY. Citadel played a D-3 team Friday; they’ve got four starters back, plus six freshman to add depth. ACC home favorites are 6-2 vs spread so far this weekend; SoCon teams are 4-3 vs spread so far this weekend. Last two years, ACC teams are 14-10-1 vs spread when playing a Southern Conference foe.
Monmouth beat Bucknell 79-78 in its opener Friday; Hawks were 24-30 on line. Monmouth fears no one- they lost in OT at So Carolina LY and Gamecocks made Final 4. Hawks lost four starters from team that won 55 games the last two years. Seton Hall is a top 25 pick for first time in 15 years; Pirates have four starters back, but they play Indiana Wednesday- they best not look past this game. MAAC teams are 4-1 as an underdog so far this weekend; Big East teams are 2-1 as a home favorite this weekend. Last two years, MAAC teams covered four of five games against the Big East.
Oklahoma was 11-20 LY, but took a trip to Australia this summer which should’ve helped their chemistry; Sooners need to shoot better this season- they’re without F Doolittle for fall semester. Omaha (+8.5) lost 89-80 in OT at Montana State Friday; Mavericks were just 2-20 on arc, turned ball over 18 times. Omaha starts two juniors, two seniors- they don’t play at home until Nov 29. Big X teams are 3-1 as a home favorite this weekend; Summit League teams are 0-4. Last two years, Big X teams are 7-3 vs spread when playing a Summit League team.
Illinois won’t take an OVC opponent lightly; they lost an exhibition game to Eastern Illinois two weeks ago. Illini pounded Southern 102-55 Friday, making 34-37 on foul line. Illinois lost three starters from a 20-15 team, but Underwood is a big upgrade as a coach. UT-Martin lost by 11 in OT at Marshall Friday; they made 11-28 on arc. Skyhawks start three juniors and a senior- they are picked in middle of OVC pack. Big 14 teams are 1-2 as a home favorite this weekend; OVC teams are Last two years, Big 14 teams are 9-5 vs spread when facing an OVC opponent.
Cal-Irvine lost 65-54 at South Dakota State in its opener Friday; they start three sophs, two juniors, so they’re young and lack a proven scorer. Anteaters are picked near top of a weaker big West. Denver has four starters back from a 16-14, 8-8 team that learned a whole new, faster sale LY. Pioneers are picked in middle of Summit League pack. Big West teams are 3-2 vs spread so far this weekend; Summit League teams are 1-4 vs spread this weekend. Last two years, Summit League teams are 9-6 vs spread when playing a Big West opponent.
Washington got 32 points from a freshman guard in 85-82 win over Belmont Friday, after they trailed by 8 at the half; Huskies start three juniors- they don’t have any seniors. Eastern Washington played a D-III team Friday; Eagles have a new coach, three starters back from 22-12, 13-5 team that lost in first round of the CBI. Pac-12 teams are 4-4 vs spread as home favorites this weekend; Big Sky road underdogs are 3-3. Last two years, Pac-12 teams are 14-13-2 vs spread when playing a Big Sky team.
Armadillo's Write-Up
Sunday, November 12
College basketball started this weekend; there are a ton of unanswered questions, from eligibility to player rotations. Here is what little info I have on the top 13 games tonight:
UMass struggled to beat Mass-Lowell of America East 74-69 Friday night; Minutemen were just 3-15 on arc, were 23-34 on foul line. UMass lost four transfers after the coaching change last spring, so they’re thin this year. Harvard has four starters back from an 18-10 team; they’ve won 102 games the last five years- they played a D-3 team Friday. Ivy League teams are 2-3 vs spread so far this weekend; A-14 teams are 1-6, all as a favorite. Last two years, A-14 teams are 11-6 vs spread when playing Ivy League opponents.
David Padgett makes his debut as Louisville’s interim coach here; no pressure, replacing Rick Pitino. Cardinals were a top 10 pick before Pitino’s firing; they lost 3 starters from a 25-9 team, but Pitino called this his most athletic team before he left. George Mason lost 67-65 at home to Lafayette of Patriot League Friday; six of their eight guys who played are frosh/sophs. ACC home favorites are 6-2 vs spread so far this weekend. CAA road underdogs are 2-1. Last two years, ACC teams are 8-9 vs spread when playing a CAA opponent.
Cal Bears lost 74-66 at home to Riverside Friday, in a 78-possession track meet; five of 10 Cal kids who played are freshmen- they’re gonna have a long winter, because they want to press but are undermanned. Cal Poly lost 78-62 at Stanford Friday, despite going 10-25 on the arc, only 6-9 on foul line. Mustangs play a much slower pace than Riverside. Pac-12 home favorites are 4-4 vs spread so far this weekend; Big West teams are 3-2 as road underdogs. Last two years, Pac-12 teams are 23-13 vs spread when facing a Big West squad.
San Diego has four starters back from a 13-18, 6-12 team; they’re picked near bottom of WCC again this year. Toreros have a Utah transfer as their new PG, so that should be an upgrade. San Jose State has four starters back from a 14-16, 7-11 team, but they’ve got a new coach- they had improved a lot last season, but Spartans’ best player transferred in August. Mountain West teams are 1-3 vs spread so far this weekend; WCC teams are 0-4 vs spread, 0-3 as an underdog. Last two years, Mountain West teams are 14-12 vs spread when playing a WCC opponent.
Yale lost star G Mason to a stress fracture in his foot, 2nd year in row that happened- they also lost soph F Bruner wit torn meniscus in his knee. Bulldogs lost 92-76 at Creighton Friday. Wisconsin hammered SC State by 35 Friday; they started two frosh and a sophomore. Badgers lost four starters from LY’s 27-10 team. Big 14 teams are 1-2 as a home favorite this weekend. Ivy League teams are 2-2 as a road underdog. Last two years, Big 14 teams are 2-1 vs spread when facing an Ivy League foe.
Butler has a new coach; they beat Kennesaw State 82-64 Friday, despite shooting 6-25 on arc, 12-23 on line- they started two sophs and a junior. Bulldogs are picked in the middle of the Big East pack. Princeton lost three starters from a 23-7 team that lost 60-58 to Notre Dame in the NCAA’s LY, after going 16-0 in Ivy League games. Big East teams are 2-1 as a home favorite this weekend; Ivy League teams are 2-2 as a road underdog. Last two years, Big East teams are 7-1 vs spread against Ivy League opponents.
Stanford starts two juniors, two seniors; they beat Cal Poly 78-62 Friday, making 9-19 on the arc. Cardinal has three starters back from a 14-17, 6-12 team that was 3-10 in its last 13 games. Pacific has three transfers and two JC kids trying to replace four starters who graduated from an 11-22 team in Stoudamire’s first season as coach. WCC teams are 0-4 vs spread, 0-3 as an underdog; Pac-12 home favorites are 4-4 vs spread so far this weekend. Last year, WCC teams were 9-7 vs spread when facing a Pac-12 opponent.
Virginia Tech beat Citadel 113-71 LY; Bulldogs play a break-neck fast pace, so they get killed by teams with better athletes. Hokies made 11-18 on arc in LY’s game. Tech won its first game 111-79 over Detroit Friday; they’ve got four starters back from LY. Citadel played a D-3 team Friday; they’ve got four starters back, plus six freshman to add depth. ACC home favorites are 6-2 vs spread so far this weekend; SoCon teams are 4-3 vs spread so far this weekend. Last two years, ACC teams are 14-10-1 vs spread when playing a Southern Conference foe.
Monmouth beat Bucknell 79-78 in its opener Friday; Hawks were 24-30 on line. Monmouth fears no one- they lost in OT at So Carolina LY and Gamecocks made Final 4. Hawks lost four starters from team that won 55 games the last two years. Seton Hall is a top 25 pick for first time in 15 years; Pirates have four starters back, but they play Indiana Wednesday- they best not look past this game. MAAC teams are 4-1 as an underdog so far this weekend; Big East teams are 2-1 as a home favorite this weekend. Last two years, MAAC teams covered four of five games against the Big East.
Oklahoma was 11-20 LY, but took a trip to Australia this summer which should’ve helped their chemistry; Sooners need to shoot better this season- they’re without F Doolittle for fall semester. Omaha (+8.5) lost 89-80 in OT at Montana State Friday; Mavericks were just 2-20 on arc, turned ball over 18 times. Omaha starts two juniors, two seniors- they don’t play at home until Nov 29. Big X teams are 3-1 as a home favorite this weekend; Summit League teams are 0-4. Last two years, Big X teams are 7-3 vs spread when playing a Summit League team.
Illinois won’t take an OVC opponent lightly; they lost an exhibition game to Eastern Illinois two weeks ago. Illini pounded Southern 102-55 Friday, making 34-37 on foul line. Illinois lost three starters from a 20-15 team, but Underwood is a big upgrade as a coach. UT-Martin lost by 11 in OT at Marshall Friday; they made 11-28 on arc. Skyhawks start three juniors and a senior- they are picked in middle of OVC pack. Big 14 teams are 1-2 as a home favorite this weekend; OVC teams are Last two years, Big 14 teams are 9-5 vs spread when facing an OVC opponent.
Cal-Irvine lost 65-54 at South Dakota State in its opener Friday; they start three sophs, two juniors, so they’re young and lack a proven scorer. Anteaters are picked near top of a weaker big West. Denver has four starters back from a 16-14, 8-8 team that learned a whole new, faster sale LY. Pioneers are picked in middle of Summit League pack. Big West teams are 3-2 vs spread so far this weekend; Summit League teams are 1-4 vs spread this weekend. Last two years, Summit League teams are 9-6 vs spread when playing a Big West opponent.
Washington got 32 points from a freshman guard in 85-82 win over Belmont Friday, after they trailed by 8 at the half; Huskies start three juniors- they don’t have any seniors. Eastern Washington played a D-III team Friday; Eagles have a new coach, three starters back from 22-12, 13-5 team that lost in first round of the CBI. Pac-12 teams are 4-4 vs spread as home favorites this weekend; Big Sky road underdogs are 3-3. Last two years, Pac-12 teams are 14-13-2 vs spread when playing a Big Sky team.
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