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Armadillo's Write-Up
Tuesday, November 14
NC-Wilmington beat a stiff in its opener under new coach McGrath; Seahawks start two seniors and two sophs. UNCW lost its coach and four starters from LY- they’re picked in middle of pack in CAA. Davidson beat Charleston Southern by 48 in its opener; Wildcats have four starters back from a 17-15 team that was first Davidson team since 2011 to win less than 20 games- they’re picked 4th in A-14. Last two years, CAA teams are 18-5 vs spread when facing an A-14 squad. A-14 home favorites are 1-6 vs spread; CAA road underdogs are 2-2.
Wright State lost its opener 84-80 at Loyola, despite going 9-20 on arc- they turned ball over 20 times (-1). Raiders start two juniors, two seniors, are picked to finish in middle of pack in Horizon. Miami OH outscored Fordham 7-0 over last 1:54 to win its opener 55-54; Red Hawks started three freshmen under their new coach. Miami is picked to finish near bottom of the MAC. Last two years, MAC teams are 27-20 vs spread when facing a Horizon opponent. Horizon road teams are 2-3 vs spread; MAC underdogs are 5-2 vs spread, 1-1 at home.
Florida State hasn’t played yet; they lost four starters from a 26-9 team that won a game in NCAA tourney. Seminoles are picked to finish in middle of ACC pack. George Washington played only seven guys in its opener, an 84-75 win over Howard. GW was just 5-17 on arc, 17-26 on line. Colonials lost 67-48 to Florida State LY, and they were down 35 with 7:30 left in game. Last two years, ACC teams are 16-11 vs spread when playing an A-14 opponent. ACC home favorites are 8-4 vs spread; A-14 road underdogs are 4-0.
Rice was up 13 with 8:12 to go in its opener, lost 73-72 to E. Kentucky; Owls start three sophs; they were 8-28 on arc, 22-32 on foul line. Rice is picked lost four starters and its coach from a 23-12 team- they’re picked 10th in C-USA. Georgia State has three starters back from a 20-13 team; Panthers pounded a stiff in their opener. GSU is picked to finish 4th in Sun Belt. Last two years, C-USA teams are 16-15 vs spread when playing a Sun Belt foe. Sun Belt teams are 3-4 vs spread, 0-1 as road favorites; C-USA underdogs are 2-3, 1-1 at home.
Northern Illinois/Green Bay haven’t played yet; Huskies have three starters back from a 15-17, 7-11 team- they’re picked to finish near bottom of the MAC. Green Bay has likes to play fast, but they lost almost all their players who played LY. Phoenix brought in two JC kids and will have a transfer eligible later after first semester- they’re a work in progress. Last two years, Horizon road underdogs are 2-1 vs spread; MAC teams are 7-3 vs spread, 0-1 as home favorites. Last two years, MAC teams are 27-20 vs spread when facing a Horizon opponent.
Delaware won its opener at Richmond; they were up 49-20 at half, won by 13. Blue Hens start two frosh, two sophs- they shot 68% inside the arc at Richmond. Delaware is picked to finish 7th in CAA. Bradley made 12-21 on arc in its opener, a 68-53 win over IUPUI. Braves start three sophs, one junior- they’ve got all five starters back from LY, are expected to improve this season. Last two years, MVC teams are 4-2 vs spread when playing a CAA opponent. CAA road underdogs are 2-2 vs spread; MVC favorites are 3-1, 2-1 at home.
Purdue scored 108 ppg in crushing a pair of stiffs to start the season; Boilers start four seniors, all of whom played on LY’s team that lost in Sweet 16- they’re expected to be a top 20 team. Marquette has three starters back from a 19-13, 10-8 team; Eagles start two sophs, two juniors- they beat a stiff by 21 in their opener. Last two years, Big 14 teams are 19-19 vs spread when facing a Big East opponent. Big 14 favorites are 3-5 vs spread so far this month; Big East teams are 3-5, 0-1 as an underdog. Purdue made 40.3% of its 3’s LY, #7 in country.
Dutcher takes over from Steve Fisher as San Diego State’s coach; Aztecs lost 74-63 at home to Arizona State LY, going 6-24 on arc. Aztecs need to be better offensively after slumping to 19-14 LY- they’ve got three starters back from LY, start two juniors, two seniors. ASU beat Idaho State by 20 in its opener; Sun Devils are picked to finish in middle of pack in Pac-12, with three starters back. Last couple years, Mountain West teams 20-14 vs spread when facing a Pac-12 foes. MW teams are 3-5 vs spread, 0-1 on road; Pac-12 home teams are 4-6 vs spread.
Champions Classic, Chicago
Michigan State lost its last six games with Duke; their last win over Duke was in ’05 NCAA’s. Duke starts four freshmen and Grayson Allen; they pounded on Elon/Utah Valley to start the season; the stakes are raised here on neutral court. Duke made 45.8% of 3’s in their first two games. Michigan State starts four sophs and a freshman; they beat North Florida by 32 in their opener. Spartans Last couple years, ACC teams are 22-27-2 vs spread when playing a Big 14 team. Big 14 teams are 4-5 vs spread, 1-0 as underdogs; ACC favorites are 9-4 vs spread.
Kentucky beat Kansas 72-40 in last meeting, three years ago in Indy; think Bill Self remembers that? Jayhawks made 12-28 on arc in their opener, 92-56 win over Tennessee State. Kentucky struggled with Utah Valley/Vermont in their first two games, winning by 10-4 points. Wildcats played six freshmen, two sophs vs Vermont- no one else. This is youngest team Calipari has had. Last two years, SEC teams are 22-15-1 vs spread when facing a Big X opponent. Big X teams are 5-5 vs spread, 0-2 on road; SEC teams are 7-3 vs spread, 3-1 on road.
Rest of games……
Iona lost its opener by hoop in brickfest at Albany; Gaels were 4-22 on arc. Iona starts three juniors and a senior- they’re picked first in MAAC, wth four starters back from a 22-13 team that lost to Oregon in NCAA’s. Syracuse beat Cornell by 32 in their opener- they don’t have a senior starter, are kicked to finish 11th in the ACC. Last two years, ACC teams are 7-5 vs spread when playing a MAAC team. ACC home favorites are 8-4 vs spread; MAAC road underdogs are 5-2.
Elon lost by 29 at Duke in its opener (was 45-25 at half), then pounded on a stiff; they start two seniors, three seniors, are picked to finish 2nd in CAA. Furman has four starters back from a breakthrough 23-12 team, but their coach bolted to Drake. Paladins are picked to win SoCon this winter after losing in semis of CIT tournament last March. Last couple years, CAA teams are 4-3 vs spread when facing a SoCon opponent. CAA road underdogs are 2-2 vs spread; SoCon teams are 3-8 vs spread, all as underdogs.
Omaha lost its first two games, in OT at Montana State, by 19 at Oklahoma; Mavericks were 12-22 on arc in Norman- they lost four starters from a 18-14 team, are picked to finish 6th in Summit this season. New Mexico has a new coach, scored 147 points against a cupcake in their opener; Lobos will get resistance here. Lobos were 18-39 on arc Saturday; if they run/gun in thin air, it’ll be interesting. Last two years, Mountain West teams are 8-3 vs spread when facing a Summit oppopent. MW home favorites are 3-3 vs spread; Summit League road dogs are 1-5.
Armadillo's Write-Up
Tuesday, November 14
NC-Wilmington beat a stiff in its opener under new coach McGrath; Seahawks start two seniors and two sophs. UNCW lost its coach and four starters from LY- they’re picked in middle of pack in CAA. Davidson beat Charleston Southern by 48 in its opener; Wildcats have four starters back from a 17-15 team that was first Davidson team since 2011 to win less than 20 games- they’re picked 4th in A-14. Last two years, CAA teams are 18-5 vs spread when facing an A-14 squad. A-14 home favorites are 1-6 vs spread; CAA road underdogs are 2-2.
Wright State lost its opener 84-80 at Loyola, despite going 9-20 on arc- they turned ball over 20 times (-1). Raiders start two juniors, two seniors, are picked to finish in middle of pack in Horizon. Miami OH outscored Fordham 7-0 over last 1:54 to win its opener 55-54; Red Hawks started three freshmen under their new coach. Miami is picked to finish near bottom of the MAC. Last two years, MAC teams are 27-20 vs spread when facing a Horizon opponent. Horizon road teams are 2-3 vs spread; MAC underdogs are 5-2 vs spread, 1-1 at home.
Florida State hasn’t played yet; they lost four starters from a 26-9 team that won a game in NCAA tourney. Seminoles are picked to finish in middle of ACC pack. George Washington played only seven guys in its opener, an 84-75 win over Howard. GW was just 5-17 on arc, 17-26 on line. Colonials lost 67-48 to Florida State LY, and they were down 35 with 7:30 left in game. Last two years, ACC teams are 16-11 vs spread when playing an A-14 opponent. ACC home favorites are 8-4 vs spread; A-14 road underdogs are 4-0.
Rice was up 13 with 8:12 to go in its opener, lost 73-72 to E. Kentucky; Owls start three sophs; they were 8-28 on arc, 22-32 on foul line. Rice is picked lost four starters and its coach from a 23-12 team- they’re picked 10th in C-USA. Georgia State has three starters back from a 20-13 team; Panthers pounded a stiff in their opener. GSU is picked to finish 4th in Sun Belt. Last two years, C-USA teams are 16-15 vs spread when playing a Sun Belt foe. Sun Belt teams are 3-4 vs spread, 0-1 as road favorites; C-USA underdogs are 2-3, 1-1 at home.
Northern Illinois/Green Bay haven’t played yet; Huskies have three starters back from a 15-17, 7-11 team- they’re picked to finish near bottom of the MAC. Green Bay has likes to play fast, but they lost almost all their players who played LY. Phoenix brought in two JC kids and will have a transfer eligible later after first semester- they’re a work in progress. Last two years, Horizon road underdogs are 2-1 vs spread; MAC teams are 7-3 vs spread, 0-1 as home favorites. Last two years, MAC teams are 27-20 vs spread when facing a Horizon opponent.
Delaware won its opener at Richmond; they were up 49-20 at half, won by 13. Blue Hens start two frosh, two sophs- they shot 68% inside the arc at Richmond. Delaware is picked to finish 7th in CAA. Bradley made 12-21 on arc in its opener, a 68-53 win over IUPUI. Braves start three sophs, one junior- they’ve got all five starters back from LY, are expected to improve this season. Last two years, MVC teams are 4-2 vs spread when playing a CAA opponent. CAA road underdogs are 2-2 vs spread; MVC favorites are 3-1, 2-1 at home.
Purdue scored 108 ppg in crushing a pair of stiffs to start the season; Boilers start four seniors, all of whom played on LY’s team that lost in Sweet 16- they’re expected to be a top 20 team. Marquette has three starters back from a 19-13, 10-8 team; Eagles start two sophs, two juniors- they beat a stiff by 21 in their opener. Last two years, Big 14 teams are 19-19 vs spread when facing a Big East opponent. Big 14 favorites are 3-5 vs spread so far this month; Big East teams are 3-5, 0-1 as an underdog. Purdue made 40.3% of its 3’s LY, #7 in country.
Dutcher takes over from Steve Fisher as San Diego State’s coach; Aztecs lost 74-63 at home to Arizona State LY, going 6-24 on arc. Aztecs need to be better offensively after slumping to 19-14 LY- they’ve got three starters back from LY, start two juniors, two seniors. ASU beat Idaho State by 20 in its opener; Sun Devils are picked to finish in middle of pack in Pac-12, with three starters back. Last couple years, Mountain West teams 20-14 vs spread when facing a Pac-12 foes. MW teams are 3-5 vs spread, 0-1 on road; Pac-12 home teams are 4-6 vs spread.
Champions Classic, Chicago
Michigan State lost its last six games with Duke; their last win over Duke was in ’05 NCAA’s. Duke starts four freshmen and Grayson Allen; they pounded on Elon/Utah Valley to start the season; the stakes are raised here on neutral court. Duke made 45.8% of 3’s in their first two games. Michigan State starts four sophs and a freshman; they beat North Florida by 32 in their opener. Spartans Last couple years, ACC teams are 22-27-2 vs spread when playing a Big 14 team. Big 14 teams are 4-5 vs spread, 1-0 as underdogs; ACC favorites are 9-4 vs spread.
Kentucky beat Kansas 72-40 in last meeting, three years ago in Indy; think Bill Self remembers that? Jayhawks made 12-28 on arc in their opener, 92-56 win over Tennessee State. Kentucky struggled with Utah Valley/Vermont in their first two games, winning by 10-4 points. Wildcats played six freshmen, two sophs vs Vermont- no one else. This is youngest team Calipari has had. Last two years, SEC teams are 22-15-1 vs spread when facing a Big X opponent. Big X teams are 5-5 vs spread, 0-2 on road; SEC teams are 7-3 vs spread, 3-1 on road.
Rest of games……
Iona lost its opener by hoop in brickfest at Albany; Gaels were 4-22 on arc. Iona starts three juniors and a senior- they’re picked first in MAAC, wth four starters back from a 22-13 team that lost to Oregon in NCAA’s. Syracuse beat Cornell by 32 in their opener- they don’t have a senior starter, are kicked to finish 11th in the ACC. Last two years, ACC teams are 7-5 vs spread when playing a MAAC team. ACC home favorites are 8-4 vs spread; MAAC road underdogs are 5-2.
Elon lost by 29 at Duke in its opener (was 45-25 at half), then pounded on a stiff; they start two seniors, three seniors, are picked to finish 2nd in CAA. Furman has four starters back from a breakthrough 23-12 team, but their coach bolted to Drake. Paladins are picked to win SoCon this winter after losing in semis of CIT tournament last March. Last couple years, CAA teams are 4-3 vs spread when facing a SoCon opponent. CAA road underdogs are 2-2 vs spread; SoCon teams are 3-8 vs spread, all as underdogs.
Omaha lost its first two games, in OT at Montana State, by 19 at Oklahoma; Mavericks were 12-22 on arc in Norman- they lost four starters from a 18-14 team, are picked to finish 6th in Summit this season. New Mexico has a new coach, scored 147 points against a cupcake in their opener; Lobos will get resistance here. Lobos were 18-39 on arc Saturday; if they run/gun in thin air, it’ll be interesting. Last two years, Mountain West teams are 8-3 vs spread when facing a Summit oppopent. MW home favorites are 3-3 vs spread; Summit League road dogs are 1-5.
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