Friday's Best Bet
February 16, 2018
Friday College Basketball Best Bet
#16 Rhode Island Rams vs St Bonaventure Bonnies
Fridays in February always give off that “calm before the storm” feeling in the college basketball world as Saturday cards are always loaded with huge matchups with significant NCAA Tournament repercussions.
That's not the case on Fridays, as the action to begin the weekend is usually dominated by the Ivy League and some Mid-Major outfits, but when one of those Mid-Major schools is ranked in the Top 25 like Rhode Island currently is, these Friday games can be a great appetizer before the main course on Saturday.
Rhode Island (-2); Total set at 150.5
The Rhode Island Rams are looking for the season sweep over St Bonaventure tonight after the Rams won the first meeting 87-73 at home back in mid-January. That game was broken open in the 2nd half as it was just a 3-point lead at half for Rhode Island, but their ability to limit the Bonnies scoring in the final 20 minutes (St Bonny shot just 38.3% for the game) helped the Rams pull away, as did the five guys that managed to hit double figures in scoring. The -7.5 points Rhode Island was laying that day was covered easily in the end, but with them being undefeated (at the time and currently to this day) at home, the Rams eventually pulling away had to be expected.
But tonight's game is on the Bonnies home floor where they are 10-1 SU on the year with the only home loss coming all the way back in their season opener in early November. The Bonnies have never been catching points on their own floor this year, but with a perfect home record in conference play, and a current seven-game winning streak overall on the line, do the Bonnies deserve to be catching points tonight?
Early action suggests that oddsmakers didn't give St Bonaventure enough points tonight as they opened in the +1 range only to get bumped up to +2 and even 2.5 at some places. VegasInsider.com's betting percentages show about 70% of the action ATS-wise on the ranked visitors, while 80% of bets SU have seen bettors bypass laying the short number and taking Rhode Island on the ML. Winning 16 games in a row like Rhode Island has will give a program that type of credit with the betting market as many do not see that streak ending tonight.
Yet, I am not in that popular camp as St Bonaventure is a strong 'live dog' in this spot tonight for a variety of reasons. A SU win tonight would bolster their NCAA Tournament resume tremendously – a place they haven't been since 2012 – and while there is no real way to catch Rhode Island in the Atlantic 10 standings, a season split with the Rams would be the first seed of doubt planted in Rhode Island's mind should these two end up meeting in the finals of the conference tournament in a few weeks. The winner of that tournament gets an automatic NCAA berth, and wouldn't St Bonny love to go into that potential meeting with a boatload of confidence knowing they've already knocked off this Rams team.
Secondly, home court has meant quite a bit of late in this rivalry with the home team a perfect 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. The home side was favored in each of those games which doesn't really help St Bonny's case specifically here, but remember, this game opened at +1 which suggests that oddsmakers believe it basically is a toss-up. With three Top 10 ranked teams getting knocked off on the road last night against unranked squads, is it really that far-fetched to see a fourth ranked squad go down 24 hours later in a similar spot? I don't believe it is at all.
St Bonaventure hung with Rhode Island the entire 1st half of that first meeting, and with the scenery changing to a more friendly environment in the rematch, don't expect the Bonnies to crumble in the final 20 minutes again. This is a chance for a statement win for St Bonaventure this year and they should be able to get it. They average 81.2 points per home game this year, and when you combine that with either the 65.2/game they allow at home and/or the 78.8/game Rhode Island scores on the road, the numbers do line up in support of an upset.
Finally, in a rare instance of coincidence (or maybe not), today, February 16th, marks the the first day of the Year of the Dog. Wouldn't it be fitting that the underdog in this matchup, who has a Wolf (like a dog) for a mascot, upsets the #16 ranked team in the country that's currently riding a 16-game winning streak...
If you strongly believe in that stuff, that's got to be the sign of all signs in favor of the Bonnies, but divine intervention or not, St Bonaventure has more than enough talent, skill and momentum on their home floor to get that statement win for their resume tonight and halt Rhode Island's long winning streak.
Best Bet: St Bonaventure +2 and ML (+115)
February 16, 2018
Friday College Basketball Best Bet
#16 Rhode Island Rams vs St Bonaventure Bonnies
Fridays in February always give off that “calm before the storm” feeling in the college basketball world as Saturday cards are always loaded with huge matchups with significant NCAA Tournament repercussions.
That's not the case on Fridays, as the action to begin the weekend is usually dominated by the Ivy League and some Mid-Major outfits, but when one of those Mid-Major schools is ranked in the Top 25 like Rhode Island currently is, these Friday games can be a great appetizer before the main course on Saturday.
Rhode Island (-2); Total set at 150.5
The Rhode Island Rams are looking for the season sweep over St Bonaventure tonight after the Rams won the first meeting 87-73 at home back in mid-January. That game was broken open in the 2nd half as it was just a 3-point lead at half for Rhode Island, but their ability to limit the Bonnies scoring in the final 20 minutes (St Bonny shot just 38.3% for the game) helped the Rams pull away, as did the five guys that managed to hit double figures in scoring. The -7.5 points Rhode Island was laying that day was covered easily in the end, but with them being undefeated (at the time and currently to this day) at home, the Rams eventually pulling away had to be expected.
But tonight's game is on the Bonnies home floor where they are 10-1 SU on the year with the only home loss coming all the way back in their season opener in early November. The Bonnies have never been catching points on their own floor this year, but with a perfect home record in conference play, and a current seven-game winning streak overall on the line, do the Bonnies deserve to be catching points tonight?
Early action suggests that oddsmakers didn't give St Bonaventure enough points tonight as they opened in the +1 range only to get bumped up to +2 and even 2.5 at some places. VegasInsider.com's betting percentages show about 70% of the action ATS-wise on the ranked visitors, while 80% of bets SU have seen bettors bypass laying the short number and taking Rhode Island on the ML. Winning 16 games in a row like Rhode Island has will give a program that type of credit with the betting market as many do not see that streak ending tonight.
Yet, I am not in that popular camp as St Bonaventure is a strong 'live dog' in this spot tonight for a variety of reasons. A SU win tonight would bolster their NCAA Tournament resume tremendously – a place they haven't been since 2012 – and while there is no real way to catch Rhode Island in the Atlantic 10 standings, a season split with the Rams would be the first seed of doubt planted in Rhode Island's mind should these two end up meeting in the finals of the conference tournament in a few weeks. The winner of that tournament gets an automatic NCAA berth, and wouldn't St Bonny love to go into that potential meeting with a boatload of confidence knowing they've already knocked off this Rams team.
Secondly, home court has meant quite a bit of late in this rivalry with the home team a perfect 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. The home side was favored in each of those games which doesn't really help St Bonny's case specifically here, but remember, this game opened at +1 which suggests that oddsmakers believe it basically is a toss-up. With three Top 10 ranked teams getting knocked off on the road last night against unranked squads, is it really that far-fetched to see a fourth ranked squad go down 24 hours later in a similar spot? I don't believe it is at all.
St Bonaventure hung with Rhode Island the entire 1st half of that first meeting, and with the scenery changing to a more friendly environment in the rematch, don't expect the Bonnies to crumble in the final 20 minutes again. This is a chance for a statement win for St Bonaventure this year and they should be able to get it. They average 81.2 points per home game this year, and when you combine that with either the 65.2/game they allow at home and/or the 78.8/game Rhode Island scores on the road, the numbers do line up in support of an upset.
Finally, in a rare instance of coincidence (or maybe not), today, February 16th, marks the the first day of the Year of the Dog. Wouldn't it be fitting that the underdog in this matchup, who has a Wolf (like a dog) for a mascot, upsets the #16 ranked team in the country that's currently riding a 16-game winning streak...
If you strongly believe in that stuff, that's got to be the sign of all signs in favor of the Bonnies, but divine intervention or not, St Bonaventure has more than enough talent, skill and momentum on their home floor to get that statement win for their resume tonight and halt Rhode Island's long winning streak.
Best Bet: St Bonaventure +2 and ML (+115)
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