The Bum's 2016 NBA Best Bets-Trends-News-Stats !

[StarDust Bum]

Overall Picks of the Day:..........APRIL'S NBA PLAYOFF TOTALS
Date W-L-T % Units Record

Totals:.......43 -34..55.84%..+ 28.00

Best Bets Daily:
Sides / Totals

Totals................21 - 17 - 2....55.26%..+ 2.30................19 - 19...50.00%..- 3.00

******************************
May's Best Bets:
Date W-L-T % Units Record

05/04/2017.......... 0-4-0........... 0.00%.......... -2200
05/03/2017.......... 3-1-0.......... 75.00%......... + 950
05/02/2017.......... 4-0-0......... 100.00%........ +2000
05/01/2017.......... 3-1-0.......... 75.00%........... +950

Totals...................10 - 6...........62.50%..........+1700

Best Bets Daily:
Sides / Totals

05/04/2017............0 - 2...........00.00%............-2.20.............0 - 2......0.00%.....- 2.20
05/03/2017............1 - 1...........50.00%...........- 0.10.............2 - 0.......100%....+ 2.00
05/02/2017............2 - 0..........100.00%.........+ 2.00.............2 - 0.......100%....+ 2.00
05/01/2017............2 - 0..........100.00 %........+ 2.00.............1 - 1.......50%.......- 0.10

Totals...................5 - 3............62.50%.........+ 1.70..............5 -3.......62.50%......+1.70

[StarDust Bum]

NBA
Dunkel

Friday, May 5


San Antonio @ Houston

Game 737-738
May 5, 2017 @ 9:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Antonio
116.827
Houston
127.375
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 10 1/2
205
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
by 4 1/2
215 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Houston
(-4 1/2); Under

Cleveland @ Toronto

Game 735-736
May 5, 2017 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cleveland
121.556
Toronto
123.054
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Toronto
by 1 1/2
222
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cleveland
by 3
214
Dunkel Pick:
Toronto
(+3); Over




NBA
Long Sheet

Friday, May 5

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CLEVELAND (57 - 31) at TORONTO (55 - 35) - 5/5/2017, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 8-20 ATS (-14.0 Units) in road games after 3 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) on Friday nights over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 10-22 ATS (-14.2 Units) in all playoff games over the last 3 seasons.
TORONTO is 188-232 ATS (-67.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 11-8 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
CLEVELAND is 13-6 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
11 of 19 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SAN ANTONIO (66 - 24) at HOUSTON (60 - 29) - 5/5/2017, 9:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 20-11 ATS (+7.9 Units) after allowing 115 points or more this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 1001-874 ATS (+39.6 Units) in all games since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 31-13 ATS (+16.7 Units) when tied in a playoff series since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
HOUSTON is 37-50 ATS (-18.0 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 10-22 ATS (-14.2 Units) in home games revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN ANTONIO is 8-6 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
SAN ANTONIO is 10-4 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
7 of 13 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Friday, May 5

Lebron James was 15-21 on foul line in Game 2; all the Raptors combined were 14-19, but now the series is in Canada, where Raptors won five of their last six games. Raptors are 1-7 in last eight games vs Cleveland; Cavaliers won their last three visits here, by 26-3-4 points- over is 7-5 in last 12 series games, 8-2 in last 10 Cavalier games. Cleveland shot 54.7% from floor in Game 2, made 18-33 on arc- they’re 6-0 in playoffs (4-2 vs spread, 2-2 at home). Lowry has a bad ankle, is ??able here. Raptors are 4-7 vs spread in last 11 games as an underdog.

Parker is done for year for Spurs; he played 23-26 minutes in Games 1-2, had 18 points in 26:00 last game- it is a big loss. Spurs won seven of last nine series games; road side won five of last seven meetings. San Antonio won its last three visits here, by 10-6-2 points. Over is 2-0 in this series, after under was 4-0-1 in last five series games prior to this- over is 9-1 in Spurs’ last 10 games overall. Rockets were 9-24 on arc in Game 2, after a 22-50 performance in Game 1- Harden was 3-17 from floor. Spurs lost four of last five road games. Houston won its last four home games.

Second round playoff series:
Boston-Washington
Bos 123-111, -4.5, O216
Bos 129-119 O, -5, O218.5
Wash 116-89, -5.5, U218

Cleveland-Toronto
Clev 116-105, -7, O211
Clev 125-103, -7, O214.5

San Antonio-Houston
Hst 126-99, +6, O215.5
SA 121-96, -5.5, O215

Golden State-Utah
GState 106-94, -13, U206.5
GState 115-104, -13.5, O206

Favorites 6-3 (26-25-1)
Over 7-2 (29-23)




NBA

Friday, May 5

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

7:00 PM
CLEVELAND vs. TORONTO
Cleveland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Cleveland is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Toronto
Toronto is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Toronto's last 11 games at home

9:30 PM
SAN ANTONIO vs. HOUSTON
San Antonio is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
San Antonio is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Houston
Houston is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing San Antonio
Houston is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing San Antonio

[StarDust Bum]

Friday’s NBA Playoffs Betting Preview and Odds

Cleveland Cavaliers at Toronto Raptors (+2, 214.5)

Cavs lead series 2-0

ABOUT THE CAVALIERS (57-31 SU, 40-45-3 ATS, 52-35-1 O/U): LeBron James moved into second place on the all-time postseason scoring list when he passed Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (5,762), and his personal tally stands at 5,777. "You hear a name like Kareem, a guy who's done so many great things, not only as an individual but as a teammate," James told reporters. "Winning championships in the '80s and things of that nature and how many points he's put up. He's somebody you read about. I didn't get an opportunity to actually watch him play growing up, but I just read about his accomplishments and things he was able to do, so, it's pretty cool." Point guard Kyrie Irving set a personal playoff high for assists (11 in Game 2) for the second straight contest and is averaging 23 points and 10.5 assists in the series.

ABOUT THE RAPTORS (55-35 SU, 48-41-1 ATS, 44-42 O/U): Point guard Kyle Lowry and shooting guard DeMar DeRozan were hurting after the Game 2 loss for different reasons. Lowry scored 20 points but departed the game with a sprained left ankle - he says he will be ready for Friday's game - while DeRozan experienced a dreadful contest in which he tallied just five points on 2-of-11 shooting. "It sucks. To lose like we did, to play like I did, it sucks," DeRozan told reporters. "It's frustrating. Now I just have the added time having to wait till Friday night to redeem myself."

LINE HISTORY: The Raptors opened as 2.5-point home dogs in a critical Game 3 against the surging Cavaliers, that number was quickly bet down to an even 2. The total hit the betting board at 215.5 and has been lowered to 214.

INJURY REPORT:

Cavaliers - PG Kay Felder (Out Indefinitely, leg).

Raptors - PG Kyle Lowry (Questionable, ankle).

TRENDS:

* Cavaliers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.

* Raptors are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.

* Over is 5-1 in Cavaliers last 6 overall.

* Over is 9-2 in Raptors last 11 home games.

* Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.




San Antonio Spurs at Houston Rockets (-4.5, 215)

Series tied 1-1

ABOUT THE SPURS (66-24 SU, 46-42-2 ATS, 50-38-2 O/U): The Spurs thoroughly outplayed Houston in the latter stages on Wednesday but will be without point guard Tony Parker for the rest of the postseason after he suffered a ruptured left quadriceps in Game 2. San Antonio star forward Kawhi Leonard fueled his club's rebound with 34 points, eight assists, seven rebounds and three steals in Wednesday's victory. Harden hasn't played like an MVP candidate during the first two games and is averaging 16.5 points on 9-of-30 shooting. Harden did average 12 assists in the two contests but his overall numbers are a significant dropoff from the regular season when he averaged 29.8 points, 11.8 assists and nine rebounds in four games against the Spurs. Forward Ryan Anderson tallied 18 points on 7-of-9 shooting in Game 2 and drained four 3-pointers in each of the first two games.

ABOUT THE ROCKETS (60-29 SU, 46-43 ATS, 45-43-1 O/U): Houston's sharp Game 1 effort was a stunner and the Rockets couldn't stay in the follow-up contest with star point guard James Harden suffering through a 3-of-17 shooting performance while scoring just 13 points. "I just missed shots," Harden told reporters after Game 2. "I didn't convert layups. We knew they were going to come out with some aggressiveness. We just have to go out there and take care of business and do the things we didn't do (in Game 2)." Parker fell to the floor after attempting a short jump shot with 8:52 remaining and immediately grasped his leg and it was clear the injury was likely of the severe variety when he had to be carried off by two teammates. He underwent an MRI exam on Thursday, which pinpointed the nature of the injury and San Antonio will now ask backup point guard Patty Mills to step up and lessen Parker's loss. "I can tell you one thing, that we're all ready," Mills said after Game 2. "We're all ready to step up and make an impact."

LINE HISTORY: The Rockets opened as 4-point home chalk for Game 3 and that number has been bet up half-point to 4.5. The total hit the betting board at 215.5 and has been faded half-point to 215.

INJURY REPORT:

Spurs - PG Tony Parker (Out for Season, knee)

Rockets - SG James Harden (Probable, hip), PF Chinanu Onuaku (Elig, suspension).

TRENDS:

* Spurs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.

* Rockets are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games.

* Over is 6-0 in Spurs last 6 overall.

* Over is 8-1 in Rockets last 9 Conference Semifinals games.

* Road team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings.

[StarDust Bum]

Friday's NBA Essentials
May 5, 2017

Western Conference First Round
No. 2 San Antonio at No. 3 Houston (ESPN, 9:35 p.m. ET)

A series that already appeared to be a daunting challenge got all the more difficult when Tony Parker was helped off the floor in the fourth quarter of Game 2, unable to put weight on his left leg after lying motionless following a non-contact injury that immediately looked like a worst-case situation.

Those fears where realized on Thursday when Parker was officially diagnosed with a ruptured left quadriceps tendon, ending his season. Patty Mills will likely move into the starting five, while Manu Ginobili should be in line for more minutes. Rookie Dejounte Murray, who got playing time earlier this season and is well-suited to play the up-tempo style the Rockets employ, could also wind up playing a role for San Antonio.

Still, Parker's absence shouldn't be minimized. He's no longer a Finals MVP-type performer like he was earlier in his career, but scored in double-figures in seven of San Antonio's eight postseason games and was best-suited to take pressure off Kawhi Leonard in initiating the offense and serving as a dependable No. 2 scorer. In the Spurs' five playoff wins, Parker averaged 18.8 points and shot 60 percent from the field and 10-for-15 (66.%) from 3-point range. In their three lossses, he shot 37.5 percent, went a combined 1-for-4 from beyond the arc and scored an average of just 11 points.

"That's a tough blow," Ginobili said of losing his longtime backcourt partner. "We'll have to regroup, reorganize the starting five and rotations, everything. We'll try to step up, but it's tough to lose a playier like TP."

Mills, an Australia native generously listed at 6-feet tall, has averaged just 18.5 minutes in the series, averaging just 7.0 points. During the regular season, he shot just 42 percent in the four meetings with Houston, averaging 8.5 points while making only five of 19 3-point tries. He must be more productive for San Antonio to survive Parker's loss and has the skills to make a difference. Of the two, he's the better on-ball defender.

Complicating matters, San Antonio must revamp while going on the road, where it has lost four of five despite being at full strength. The Spurs closed out the Grizzlies in Memphis, but will be in an underdog role for the first time all postseason. They did sweep both regular-season meetings in Houston, but will be playing their first-ever playoff game at Toyota Center, having avoided the Rockets in the playoffs since 1995. Including this series, Houston is just 2-10 against their Southwest Division, in-state rival since Dec. 2014.

While most viewed this as a toss-up of a series coming in, that quickly changed after the Rockets took Game 1 at the AT&T Center 126-99, cruising to a jaw-dropping win after building a 69-39 halftime lead. The Spurs responded on Wednesday, putting the game with a 33-13 fourth quarter despite losing Parker. Kawhi Leonard, who has put all his MVP-type skills on display this postseason, shot 13-for-16 from the field in scoring 34 points while helping lock up James Harden on the defensive end.

Harden was quick to deflect credit from Leonard's defense following Game 2, claiming he just "missed layups" in a brutal 3-for-17 effort. After blistering the nets with a 22-for-50 shooting night from 3-point range in Game 1, Houston rocketed back to earth with an 11-for-34 effort on Wednesday. They should improve on that figure at home, so the Spurs will once again have to prove they can survive in a track meet since slowing Mike D'Antoni's team on their home floor appears unlikely.

Harden was held to just 13 points and has scored 20 or fewer in three of the last four games, so expect him to try and get to the free-throw line as often as possible to get himself into a rhythm. Since opening the postseason by averaging 38.7 points over the first three games against Oklahoma City, he's shot under 40 percent in three of the last four contests, entering Game 3 in a 22-for-81 shooting slump. He's made just seven of 37 3-pointers in that span.

Gregg Popovich and his staff have had a history of slowing Harden and forcing him out of his comfort zone with the likes of Leonard and Danny Green as primary defenders, but this Rockets offense is so loaded that they can't really afford to focus their defensive game plan on one player. Nene, Ryan Anderson and Patrick Beverley have all stepped up thus far through two games, while shooters Eric Gordon and Lou Williams are flammable, so they're definitely equipped to take advantage if too much attention is paid to Harden, who has averaged 12 assists through the first two games.

One major x-factor is Trevor Ariza, who finds himself open often since the Spurs will live with allowing him to shoot. He made five 3-pointers in the Game 1 blowout but went 0-for-4 on Wednesday. D'Antoni will need him to continue shooting and making himself a threat despite the fact his strengths lie on the defensive end. Beverley is in a similar situation and has gone just 3-for-10 from 3-point range but has kept the Spurs defense honest by attacking the paint, relying on a runner that's been productive.

The ‘over’ went 2-0 in the first two games of this series and the oddsmakers opened Game 3 at 215.5, in the same neighborhood it was in for Games 1 and 2.

VegasInsider.com NBA analyst Chris David believes we have a great shot to see the high side connect again. He explained, “The style of the Rockets can always lead to a lot of points from both teams and we saw that occur in both games. Houston dropped 126 in Game 1 and came back to life on Wednesday with 96 points but they were held to 13 in the final quarter so that result is a little misleading.”

“The Spurs defense hasn’t been as good on the road and if you’re basing your wager clearly on betting results, San Antonio has seen the ‘over’ cash in six straight and nine of their last 10 games. Plus the Spurs have seen their last five playoff games on the road go ‘over’ and four of the five opponents all posted triple digits on them. Houston averaged 112.6 PPG at home in the first round versus Oklahoma City and it has a team total of 109 ½ listed for Game 3. Along with the ‘over’ on the game, I would back the Rockets eclipsing that number as well.”

Eastern Conference First Round
No. 2 Cleveland at No. 3 Toronto (ESPN, 7:00 p.m. ET)

The Raptors have won eight of their last 10 home games and have utilized their homecourt edge successfully 30 times this season, so they've got reason to feel confident they can turn things around entering a must-win Game 3.

The Cavs will be looking to snuff out the hopes of Canada's basketball community, picking up where they left off after a dominant run in Cleveland. LeBron James led his team to easy covers in a pair of double-digit home wins, rolling by a combined margin of 33 points in all.

LeBron James needed just 14 shots to score 39 points, getting to the free-throw line 21 times and finishing 4-for-6 from 3-point range. That efficiency was the driving force in a blowout win Cleveland never trailed after going up 10-9 on a Kevin Love 3-pointer, the second of 18 they would hit on the night, shooting 54.5 percent.

Remember when the Raptors were supposed to have the right personnel in place to at least challenge James physically? That hasn't worked out.

James is getting wherever he wants, often toying with midseason acquisitions Serge Ibaka and P.J. Tucker. He's shot 62 percent on a cartoonish 23-for-37 from the field, averaging 37 points and shooting 6-for-11 from 3-point range. Holdovers DeMarre Carroll and DeMar DeRozan have had no answers, but those guys were in this situation last season, down 0-2 after being outscored by 50 in the first two games at Quicken Loans Arena.

The Raptors rallied to even the series as the backcourt stepped and the defense hung tough, holding a Cavs attack that had averaged 111.5 points to 91.5. Cleveland has scored 120.5 points through its first two wins, so while slowing it down seems ambitious, the defensive issues that haunted it down the stretch haven't necessarily disappeared. They've just been masked by great shooting and offensive execution.

Head coach Dwane Casey started 7-footer Jonas Valanciunas in Game 1 and switched things up with Serge Ibaka moving to the middle as Norman Powell and Patrick Patterson replaced Carroll and Valanciunas in the Game 2 starting lineup. Casey said he liked the spacing his lineup tweak afforded the first unit, but considering DeRozan fared so poorly and failed to find a rhythm, his move didn't pay dividends. Point guard Kyle Lowry hopes to play after leaving Wednesday's game with an ankle injury, but was forced to skip practice on Thursday and is expected to undergo more tests before being cleared.

"Kyle is our driving force, our point guard, our leader," DeRozan said of Lowry. "So, for us not to have him anything close to 100 percent, it would be difficult on us. But next guy, everybody else has to do do something a little bit more to fill whatever void it is he can't fully do out there on the court."

If he can't play, Cory Joseph will start as he did for most of the regular season's final few weeks. He's a superior defender, but lacks the offensive firepower of Lowry, who is averaging a series-best 20 points and 8 assists per game, shooting 56 percent from the field. By comparison, DeRozan is averaging just 12 points as the Raps have gone down 0-2, shooting just over 30 percent from the field. Valanciunas responded well to his Game 2 reserve role, scoring 23 points on 10-for-13 shooting as he used his size advantage well inside.

Since evening up last year's Eastern Conference finals at 2-2, Toronto has lost seven of its last eight games against the Cavs, winning only a meaningless regular-season game late last month. It has gone 0-3 at the Air Canada Centre in that span. Cleveland is favored on the road for the third time in three playoff road games and is 1-0-1 against the number thus far, beating Indiana twice. The Raptors went 2-1 at home against the Bucks (1-2 ATS) and will be a home underdog for just the fourth time this season. Toronto is 0-3 straight up in this situation (0-2-1 ATS), last losing to the Rockets 129-122 on Jan. 8.

VI NBA analyst Chris David weighed in on the opening number for Game 3, which has also seen the total set at 214.5, picking up right where it was in Game 2 and matching the highest figure in a Raptors game since Feb. 6.

“Prior to this series, I expected Toronto to be favored in its home games based on its home advantage and the Raptors played the Cavaliers tough at the Air Canada Centre in last year’s playoffs. After watching Cleveland dominate the first two games, you can easily see why Toronto is listed as a home ‘dog in Game 3,” said David.

“I do expect a better effort by Toronto on Friday but based on what we’ve seen from the club this season, another Cleveland win could be likely. The Raptors were 0-3 in the regular season as home underdogs and the losses came to by seven, six and three points with the latter coming against Cleveland. Plus, bettors could be hesitant to back Toronto knowing its 12-8 in its last 20 playoff games at home and that includes a loss to the Bucks in this year’s first round.”

[StarDust Bum]

FRIDAY, MAY 5

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

CLE at TOR 07:00 PM

CLE -4.0

U 213.5

SA at HOU 09:30 PM

HOU -5.0

O 213.5

[StarDust Bum]

NBA roundup: Cavaliers take commanding 3-0 lead
May 6, 2017

TORONTO -- LeBron James scored 35 points and added eight rebounds and seven assists as the Cleveland Cavaliers defeated the Toronto Raptors 115-94 Friday night to take a commanding 3-0 lead in their Eastern Conference semifinal playoff series.

The Cavaliers can complete a sweep of the series in Game 4 on Sunday in Toronto. The Raptors, playing without injured point guard Kyle Lowry, led by three points after the first half.

The Cavaliers took a two-point lead into the fourth quarter and took command of the game with a 20-3 run. James scored 13 points in the fourth quarter.

Kevin Love added 16 points and 13 rebounds for the Cavaliers. Kyrie Irving also scored 16 while Kyle Korver had 14 points. DeMar DeRozan led Toronto with 37 points while Jonas Valanciunas added 19 points and eight rebounds.

Spurs 103, Rockets 92

HOUSTON -- LaMarcus Aldridge scored at will in the paint before San Antonio turned a late barrage of 3-pointers into a victory over Houston in Game 3 of the Western Conference semifinal series at Toyota Center.

Aldridge, who scored four points in the Rockets' blowout win in Game 1, had 26 points on 12-of-20 shooting from the field. Kawhi Leonard added 26 points, 10 rebounds and seven assists as the Spurs took a 2-1 series lead. Game 4 is set for Sunday.

After a dunk by Rockets forward Trevor Ariza cut the deficit to 76-72 with 7:50 left, Aldridge and Leonard combined to score the next 12 points for the Spurs. The last Leonard basket was a 3-pointer, and when Danny Green followed with two 3-pointerss, the San Antonio lead was 94-82 with 3:15 left.

Rockets guard James Harden scored a game-high 43 points but had just five assists. Ariza totaled 17 points but had two after the intermission.

[StarDust Bum]

Saturday’s six-pack

Odds to win the Big 14 football title this coming fall:

5-7: Oklahoma

14-5: Oklahoma State

3-1: Texas

6-1: Kansas State

7-1: West Virginia

11-1: TCU

65-1: Baylor

75-1: Iowa State, Texas Tech

150-1: Kansas

**************************

DD Lohaus analyzes the Kentucky Derby……

I know I say this every year but man, the Derby came up fast this year….
Sorry to see the weather forecast isn’t ‘rosy’ for tomorrow with an 80% chance of showers. Cooler weather wont dry things out any faster and todays deluge is sure to make a tough race even tougher to handicap.

My feeling is that the track is going to be less than ‘fast’ and I am making my wagers assuming it will be an ‘off’ track.

I don’t believe there are any world-beaters in here; a relatively solid group but no particular standout. Not a bad bunch, just an equally matched one….

Selections

Hence: Last race was really good and his time stacks up with everyone in here. My fear is that he peaked in the Sunland and has no more upside. Wet track not a problem

Always Dreaming: Winner of three in a row. Hasn’t necessarily faced the strongest of competitors but has top-notch connections and could be this good.

Classic Empire: Last year’s Juvenile winner is back on track and should be ready to fire his best. Not the best odds to rick in this spot.

Irish War Cry: Wood Memorial was good and bred to like the off track. Two of three Beyer’s over 100. A lot to like.

Practical Joke: Chad Brown seems to always get them ready. Slowly stretching out. Beyer’s a little light but have to respect the connections.

Patch: Sentimental choice but steadily improving. May not be mature enough for this group but is an interesting proposition.

The Bets
$15WPS Hence – Edge in a tough call
$5WPS Always Dreaming – May get loose on the lead; sharp jockey

$2EXBX Hence/Always Dreaming/Classic Empire
$1TRIBX Hence/Always Dreaming/Classic Empire/Irish War Cry
$2WPS Patch – Sentimental Pick

[StarDust Bum]

NBA
Long Sheet

Saturday, May 6

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

GOLDEN STATE (73 - 15) at UTAH (55 - 36) - 5/6/2017, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UTAH is 76-49 ATS (+22.1 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 3 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 101-87 ATS (+5.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 146-119 ATS (+15.1 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 89-66 ATS (+16.4 Units) after a win by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 86-61 ATS (+18.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
GOLDEN STATE is 7-6 against the spread versus UTAH over the last 3 seasons
GOLDEN STATE is 11-2 straight up against UTAH over the last 3 seasons
8 of 13 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------






NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Saturday, May 6

Utah hasn’t led for one second of a game in this series. Warriors were 14-31 on arc in Game 2, led by 13 at half, jogged to an easy win. Golden State won its first six playoff games by total of 95 points (they’re 0-2 vs spread in this series); they won 9 of last 10 games with Utah- under is 6-1-1 in last 8 series games- over is 4-2 in Golden State playoff games this spring. Utah is 8-2-1 vs spread in its last 11 games overall; they lost two of last three home games in Clipper series. Golden State won/covered its last seven road tilts; last time they didn’t cover a road game was March 11.

Second round playoff series:
Boston-Washington
Bos 123-111, -4.5, O216
Bos 129-119 O, -5, O218.5
Wash 116-89, -5.5, U218

Cleveland-Toronto
Clev 116-105, -7, O211
Clev 125-103, -7, O214.5
Clev 115-94, -3, U215

San Antonio-Houston
Hst 126-99, +6, O215.5
SA 121-96, -5.5, O215
SA 103-92, +5.5, U215

Golden State-Utah
GState 106-94, -13, U206.5
GState 115-104, -13.5, O206

Favorites 7-4 (27-26-1)
Over 7-4 (29-25)




NBA

Saturday, May 6

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

8:30 PM
GOLDEN STATE vs. UTAH
Golden State is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Utah
Golden State is 14-5-2 ATS in its last 21 games
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Utah's last 14 games when playing at home against Golden State
Utah is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Golden State

[StarDust Bum]

Saturday’s NBA Playoffs Betting Preview and Odds

Golden State Warriors at Utah Jazz (+5.5, 209)

Warriors lead series 2-0

ABOUT THE WARRIORS (73-15 SU, 43-42-3 ATS, 36-52-0 O/U): Golden State's hot start in Game 2 was driven by the long-range prowess of All-Star forward Draymond Green, who knocked down four of his five 3-pointers in the first quarter and finished with 21 points before leaving after a scary fall in the fourth quarter. Green, who went largely unguarded on the perimeter with the Jazz trying to cut off Kevin Durant, Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson beyond the arc, seemed unconcerned about the injury following the contest. "I knew my knee was just locking up a little bit," Green told reporters. "I had it before. A little tweak. It wasn't like this huge sigh of relief because I kind of knew exactly what it was from the jump. But it's always good to know you're OK."

ABOUT THE JAZZ (55-36 SU, 43-44-4 ATS, 46-45 O/U): All-Star small forward Gordon Hayward scored a game-high 33 points in Game 2 after slumping to 12 points on 4-of-15 shooting in Game 1 and is looking forward to heading back to Utah. "It seems like it's been a while since we've been home," Hayward told reporters. "So definitely excited to play in front of our fans. I know they'll be excited to have us, and we're going to need them. They'll be really important for us. They always bring us a lot of energy." The Jazz are awaiting the return of point guard George Hill, who sat out Game 2 with a toe injury and remains day-to-day.

LINE HISTORY: The Jazz opened as 5.5-point home pups in a must-win Game 3 and that number has been bet down to 5. The total hit the betting board at 209 has dropped a full point to 208

INJURY REPORT:

Warriors - SF Kevon Looney (Out Indefinitely, hip).

Jazz - PG George Hill (Questionable, toe), SG Alec Burks (Out Indefinitely, knee)

TRENDS:

* Warriors are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 road games.
* Jazz are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up loss.
* Over is 4-1 in Warriors last 5 Conference Semifinals games.
* Over is 4-0 in Jazz last 4 games following a straight up loss.
* Warriors are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA
Dunkel

Saturday, May 6


Golden State @ Utah

Game 509-510
May 6, 2017 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Golden State
137.747
Utah
125.518
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Golden State
by 12
210
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Golden State
by 5 1/2
208
Dunkel Pick:
Golden State
(-5 1/2); Over

[StarDust Bum]

Game 3 - Warriors at Jazz
May 5, 2017

The Warriors are on a quest to return to the NBA Finals for the third straight season, while trying to erase the bad taste in their mouth from blowing a 3-1 lead to the Cavaliers last June. Golden State has yet to lose a playoff game this postseason after sweeping Portland in the opening round and jumping out to a 2-0 advantage over Utah in the semifinals. Can the Warriors keep up this momentum with a trip to Salt Lake City on Saturday?

Before answering the question if Golden State and continue its winning streak, will the Warriors cover a game against the Jazz? In the series opener, Golden State jumped out to a 12-point halftime advantage and even led by 20 with 4:30 minutes in regulation. The Warriors held on for a 106-94 victory, but failed to cash as 13-point favorites as all five Golden State starters scored in double-figures. Stephen Curry led the Warriors with 22 points, but Golden State struggled from long-distance by hitting only 7-of-29 shots.

Golden State teased backers once again in Game 2 by grabbing a quick 18-point cushion after one quarter, but the Jazz rallied back to cut the deficit to 63-57 two minutes into the third quarter. The Warriors went on one of their patented runs by outscoring the Jazz, 12-3 in a three-minute span to regain a 15-point edge. However, Utah crept within 11 points at the 5:47 mark of the fourth quarter and Golden State never managed to get back in covering range by winning, 115-104 as 13 ½-point favorites.

Now the venue shifts to the arena formerly known as the Delta Center in Salt Lake City, Vivint Smart Home Arena. Quin Snyder’s squad lost two of three home games in the opening round to the Clippers, while needing a fourth quarter rally in their only home win in that series back in Game 4. Utah has been excellent against the number in the playoffs at 7-2 ATS, including a 6-1 ATS mark in the underdog role.

Underdogs returning home for Game 3 trailing, 2-0 in this season’s playoffs have compiled a 1-2 SU/ATS mark. Despite the two losses, doesn’t mean these teams haven’t been competitive as the Pacers squandered a 25-point lead in a loss to the Cavaliers, while the Blazers blew a 13-point halftime edge in a six-point setback to the Warriors. The lone ‘dog to come through in this situation in the opening round was Memphis, who pulled away from San Antonio in a 105-94 triumph.

The boxing phrase ‘styles make fights’ often gets heard in NBA playoff circles and some pundits believed Utah’s defense-first scheme could slow down Golden State. VegasInsider.com NBA analyst Chris David expected the Jazz to get swept and he’s pressing that prediction.

He explained, “Utah had a great season and it was nice to see them make a return to the playoffs but they were listed as 25/1 underdog to win the series for the reason. The Jazz had the fourth best record in the NBA this season against teams below .500 but against winning teams, they had the third worst record amongst the 16 teams in the playoffs. While I give Utah credit for beating who they’re supposed to beat, it’s fair to say that they’ve been nothing but a bully and we’re watching them get punched in the mouth against Golden State.”

“From a betting perspective, Salt Lake City is considered one of the tougher venues to play at but Utah hasn’t been able to overcome the expectations of the oddsmakers. When listed as home underdogs, the Jazz have gone 6-11 (35%) over the last three seasons and that includes a 2-4 record this season. They have managed to produce a winning mark versus the spread (11-7) over this span and one of those covers came in 106-99 loss against the Warriors in December as 11 ½-point underdogs. The spread is much shorter for Game 3 and it’s hard to ignore the fact that Golden State has left Utah with victories in six of its last seven trips.”

NBA handicapper Tony Mejia says the Warriors need to put together better finishes to these games, “Garbage time has been just that for Warriors backers over the first two games in the series, as the Jazz have managed to cover in both losses despite not yet holding a lead in the series. The Warriors committed 17 turnovers against a defense missing catalyst George Hill at the point and will be playing both road games without head coach Steve Kerr, who won't travel to Salt Lake City.”

Hill is listed as questionable for Game 3 with a toe injury, but the Jazz have won four consecutive home games with the point guard sidelined dating back to March.

The ‘over’ (206) connected in Game 2 and oddsmakers opened Game 3 with a total of 208 ½ for Saturday’s matchup. David weighed in on the adjusted number.

“This is a tough total to handicap because Utah wasn’t able to dictate the style at Golden State and wound up taking 61 attempts from 3-point land in the first two games, which is much higher than its season average (26). The Jazz caught fire in the middle quarters and that helped get the result ‘over’ on Thursday,” said David.

“I have to believe that Snyder knows he can’t win this way and he’ll try to muck it up at home on Saturday, which is easier said than done against Golden State. It should be noted that Warriors are 0-5 on the road in the playoffs over the last three seasons when they’re held under 100 points. When they bust the century mark, they’ve gone 13-4. With that being said, your side wager could very easily be tied into a total result in Game 3.”

The Jazz have dropped six of their last seven home meetings with the Warriors since the start of the 2013-14 season. The lone victory in this stretch came on January 30, 2015 as Utah upset Golden State as 10-point underdogs, 110-100, while limiting the Warriors to 43% shooting from the floor.

In the previous round, the Warriors knocked off the Blazers in Game 3 at Portland. That victory snapped a five-game skid in Game 3’s in the postseason, as Golden State posted an 0-4 ATS mark as a favorite during that span before outscoring Portland, 65-46 in the second half of Game 3 in the opening round to grab the victory and the cover.

Golden State opened up as a 5 ½-point favorite, but that number dropped to five on Friday. The total sits between 208 and 208 ½ at most sports books, which is the highest total in the series. Game 3 tips off at 8:30 PM EST from Salt Lake City and can be seen on ABC.

[StarDust Bum]

Warriors want to limit Jazz rallies
May 5, 2017

SALT LAKE CITY (AP) The Golden State Warriors have cruised so easily through the six games of the playoffs that the biggest challenge, so far, may have been themselves.

The reigning Western Conference champions are a perfect 6-0 with Game 3 against the Utah Jazz on Saturday. The lone disappointment during a pair of double-digit wins has been allowing the Jazz to creep back into games after jumping out to big leads.

"There's a lot of things we can do better and we have to continue to think that way or get more of a thirst to want to play perfect," Warriors forward Andre Iguodala said. "When we don't, we should be upset. I feel like our intentions are good, but we have to have the thirst to want to be like a machine and just try to destroy everything.

"We have to compete against ourselves. We can't compete against the score. I think that is one of our biggest weaknesses, is seeing the scoreboard and getting too comfortable."

The Warriors have yet to trail against the Jazz and have forced early first-quarter timeouts from Quin Snyder in both games after sprinting out the gate each time. The Jazz won 51 regular-season games to earn the No. 5 seed with the league's best defense and upset the Clippers 4-3 in the first round, so this is no lightweight opponent. But Utah has been overwhelmed outside of limited stretches.

Two-time MVP Stephen Curry and acting coach Mike Brown said opponents are going to make their runs, but they're more concerned with the way the team responds.

"Do you cave?" Curry said. "Do you start pointing fingers at each other? Do you lose energy or do you respond with aggressiveness and confidence that we can get the momentum back on our side?

"I think we've answered that pretty well these first two games."

The Jazz have played with "desperation" during those runs, Snyder said. He sounded similar to Iguodala in that Utah has to find that drive internally instead of letting the game dictate the sense of urgency.

"There's simple things," Snyder said. "We have to be more urgent getting back. We have to be more determined offensively to attack so our offense doesn't affect our defense. It's very difficult to defend against turnovers.

"They're so explosive. It's like a fighter that's got a left hook and a jab and a right cross. They're just bam, bam, bam. You better get your gloves up or you better learn to counterpunch. They knock you back and we've avoided getting knocked out, but we've been behind on the card. Against a team that's as good as they are, that's very difficult to overcome."

Here's some things to know for Saturday's game:

---

Warriors at Jazz, Golden State leads 2-0. Game 3, 8:30 p.m., ABC

NEED TO KNOW: Utah is on ledge, but the higher seed is supposed to win the first two games. Gordon Hayward shined with 33 points in the Game 2 loss, but he needs more help from Joe Johnson, who has cooled off from his phenomenal Round 1, Joe Ingles, Rodney Hood and Derrick Favors. The Warriors are going to put up points - even against the regular-season's best defense- so Utah needs to find more offense to be competitive.

KEEP AN EYE ON: The Golden State defense. The high-scoring offense gets all the attention, but the defense has allowed few easy opportunities for the Jazz. The Warriors' combination of length, athleticism and basketball IQ has given Utah fits and Snyder said they need to attack aggressively much more often.

INJURY UPDATE: Warriors coach Steve Kerr did not travel to Salt Lake City and was seeing a specialist at Duke University on Friday. The team said he has not been officially ruled out to return this round. Warriors forward Draymond Green did not practice after tweaking his left knee during Game 2. He is listed as probable and is expected to play. Jazz point guard George Hill is likely a game-time decision and was listed as questionable with a left big toe sprain after missing Game 2.

PRESSURE IS ON: Hood. The Jazz guard was 4 for 13 and 0 for 5 from behind the arc in Game 2. Utah needs more points from the perimeter, especially with Hill in doubt. Hood continues to play through a knee injury, but he has elite scoring ability and the Jazz need that now.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA notebook: Kerr expected to miss series vs. Jazz
May 5, 2017

Golden State Warriors coach Steve Kerr, sidelined with symptoms from complications following two back surgeries two years ago, is not expected to return during the second-round playoff series against the Utah Jazz.

Kerr, who remains away from the team indefinitely, is seeing a specialist at Duke University Medical Center on Friday and has been receiving treatment aimed at alleviating the symptoms, sources told ESPN.

Kerr has been suffering from complications that cause severe headaches, nausea and dizziness as his symptoms worsened.

Kerr has spent much of the past week consulting with specialists at Stanford Medical Center to find an answer to his chronic pain, according to the San Francisco Chronicle.

--San Antonio Spurs point guard Tony Parker underwent surgery to repair his ruptured left quadriceps tendon, the team announced.

Parker suffered the injury during Wednesday's Game 2 win over the Houston Rockets. An MRI exam on Thursday determined the severity.

The surgery was performed by Spurs team physician Dr. David R. Schmidt, who indicated a timeline for Parker's return will be divulged at a later date.

Parker was averaging 15.9 points in eight playoff games, a vast improvement over his regular-season average of 10.1.

--Toronto Raptors All-Star point guard Kyle Lowry missed the team's morning shootaround due to his ankle injury and is a game-time decision for Game 3 of the Eastern Conference semifinal series.

Lowry sprained his ankle in Wednesday's Game 2 loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers and said that he is still experiencing pain.

"I'll see how I feel a little bit later," Lowry told reporters. "It's still pretty sore, but I'll see how I feel tonight before the game and make a game-time decision. I've been doing treatment all of yesterday and today, get in early tonight, test it out and see how it goes.

"I want to be out there 100 percent with my teammates, playing and trying to win games, protecting home court. I wish I could be out there with my teammates, that's the goal. The goal is just to play. I have to wait."

--Mike Budenholzer resigned as the Atlanta Hawks' president of basketball operations but will remain as coach.

In addition, Wes Wilcox resigned from his position as general manager and will become a special advisor to ownership as the Hawks announced a new management structure.

Budenholzer will continue to serve as head coach and will remain involved in basketball personnel decisions.

The team said it will use an executive search firm to help identify a new general manager to run basketball operations.

[StarDust Bum]

Overall Picks of the Day:..........APRIL'S NBA PLAYOFF TOTALS
Date W-L-T % Units Record

Totals:.......43 -34..55.84%..+ 28.00

Best Bets Daily:
Sides / Totals

Totals................21 - 17 - 2....55.26%..+ 2.30................19 - 19...50.00%..- 3.00

******************************
May's Best Bets:
Date W-L-T % Units Record

05/05/2017.......... 2-2-0......... 50.00%........... -1.00
05/04/2017.......... 0-4-0........... 0.00%.......... -22.00
05/03/2017.......... 3-1-0.......... 75.00%......... + 9.50
05/02/2017.......... 4-0-0......... 100.00%........ +20.00
05/01/2017.......... 3-1-0.......... 75.00%........... +9.50

Totals...................12 - 8...........6o.00%..........+1600

Best Bets Daily:
Sides / Totals

05/05/2017............1 - 1...........50.00%............-0.10.............1 - 1......50.00%...-0.10
05/04/2017............0 - 2...........00.00%............-2.20.............0 - 2......0.00%.....- 2.20
05/03/2017............1 - 1...........50.00%...........- 0.10.............2 - 0......100%....+ 2.00
05/02/2017............2 - 0..........100.00%.........+ 2.00.............2 - 0.......100%....+ 2.00
05/01/2017............2 - 0..........100.00 %........+ 2.00.............1 - 1.......50%.......- 0.10

Totals...................6 - 4............60.00%.........+ 1.60..............6 -4.......60.000%......+1.60


SATURDAY, MAY 6

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

GS at UTA 08:30 PM

UTA +6.0

O 207.0

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Sunday's six-pack

Odds to win the Big 14 football title this coming fall:
9-5 Ohio State
12-5: Michigan
13-5: Wisconsin, Penn State
15-1: Northwestern Nebraska
7-1: West Virginia
16-1: Michigan State
20-1: Iowa
40-1: Minnesota
60-1: Indiana
125-1: Illinois, Maryland, Purdue
200-1: Rutgers

**********

Armadillo: Sunday's List of 13: Random stuff for a soggy Sunday……

13) Busy day today; finally had enough with the keyboard on my MacBook Pro, took it back to the Apple Store and it is in the shop for a week or so—we’ll make do with our backup laptop until then.

It is nice to be able to type the letter “t” without wanting to throw something.

12) Should go buy Apple stock; when are their stores not crowded? They make a ton of money and their products aren’t even that durable.

11) One of the guys who owns Always Dreaming, the horse who won the Kentucky Derby, also owns the NHL’s Florida Panthers.

10) Adrian Gonzalez has played in 1,833 major league games over 14 years; this is the first time he has gone on the disabled list.

9) Michael Ynoa threw six scoreless innings of relief for the Orioles Friday, the first pitcher to throw 100+ pitches in relief and not allow a run since Randy Johnson in 2001- the Big Unit struck 17 batters that day.

8) Way of the world now: 67 players will attend the NBA Draft Combine; only 18 of them are college seniors.

7) Matt Albers got a save for Washington Friday in his 461st major league game, the 103rd one he has finished- that was the 2nd most games finished without ever saving a game. Now he has one.

6) Quick Albers story: April 2011, I’m in Las Vegas and Albers is on the Red Sox. He comes into a game in Kansas City in relief of Daniel Bard, who Bobby Valentine was trying to make into a starter—I had added Bard on my fantasy team.

This was one of Bard’s best starts for Boston (he didn’t have many); I’m supposed to be across the street at Battista’s meeting friends for dinner, but I wait to see if Albers can get out of this inning- I needed Bard to become a decent starter.

Nope. Billy Butler hit a ball off Albers that might still be going; by the time it landed over the fountains, I was already halfway across the street, headed to dinner. Totally unsure how Albers is still in the big leagues, but there he is and on a good team.

5) Texas Rangers TV analyst Tom Grieve was saying this weekend that the quality of the wood in bats has to be much worse now than when he played in the 70’s. Couple of bats in the Texas-Seattle game Friday splintered into pieces, making Grieve laugh.

4) 30 Cuban players played in the major leagues last year; so far in five weeks this year, 20 Cubans have already appeared in the big leagues.

3) Miami Marlins’ pitching staff is in shambles; they’re starting a reliever Sunday- their spot starter Saturday, Odrisamer Despaigne, allowed six runs in the first inning and Miami never even had a reliever warming up.

2) I’m curious as to how many people have played the President of the United States in a movie; has to be a pretty high number.

1) A 5-star recruit named Kevin Knox chose Kentucky Saturday over a bunch of schools, including Florida State, his father’s alma mater. You can make the argument that John Calipari is the best recruiter………ever.