The Bum's 2016 NBA Best Bets-Trends-News-Stats !

[StarDust Bum]

Monday’s NBA Playoffs Betting Preview and Odds

Kawhi Leonard averaged 31.2 points on 54.8 percent shooting, six rebounds and two steals in the six-game win over the Memphis Grizzlies in the first round.

Toronto Raptors at Cleveland Cavaliers (-6.5, 208.5)

Series tied 0-0

ABOUT THE RAPTORS (55-33 SU, 48-39-1 ATS, 46-42 O/U): The Toronto Raptors took the Cleveland Cavaliers to the sixth game of the Eastern Conference finals last spring and get another crack at the defending champs one round earlier this spring. The Raptors developed a stronger defensive identity with the acquisitions of P.J. Tucker and Serge Ibaka during the regular season and limited the Bucks to an average of 86 points while winning the final three games of the first-round series. The additions of Ibaka and Tucker give Toronto better defensive options against LeBron James and Kevin Love this time around, and the two made their presence felt in the last series. "We had to go out and really fight and get our hands dirty, which in the past hasn’t been one of the things you would say about the Raptors," Tucker told the Toronto Star. "But we had to do that to beat Milwaukee. We had to really go out there and fight and grind it out, and I think we’re going to have to take pieces of that series into this one." The Raptors could use more on the offensive end from point guard Kyle Lowry, who was held to an average of 14.3 points in the first round after posting 22.4 in the regular season.

ABOUT THE CAVALIERS (55-31 SU, 38-45-3 ATS, 50-35-1 O/U): The Cavaliers are not as strong on the defensive end and became the first team since the 1995 Houston Rockets to sweep a first-round series while allowing their opponent to score 100 or more points in each game, but coach Tyronn Lue saw progress throughout the series. James, 32, is logging more minutes than ever and averaged 43.8 in the first round. The superstar, who got eight days off to rest after the first-round sweep, averaged 32.8 points, 9.8 rebounds and nine assists against the Pacers. "For me, I just go out and try to win every game and do whatever it takes to help our team be successful," James told reporters. "(We are) going to a hostile building in Game 3 and Game 4 (at the Air Canada Centre), and we know that. Their fans are unbelievable. I stated that last year after we closed that series out. Doesn't mean we're going to be able to win this year. We've got to go out and make it happen. We have to worry about Game 1 first."

LINE HISTORY: The Cavs opened as 6.5-point home favorites over the visiting Raptors in Game 1 and the spread has yet to move. The total hit the board at 209.5 and was dropped slightly to 208.5.

INJURY REPORT:

Raptors - No injuries to report.

Cavaliers - PG K. Felder (Questionable, leg).

TRENDS:

* Raptors are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games.
* Cavaliers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games.
* Under is 13-3 in Raptors last 16 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
* Over is 7-1 in Cavaliers last 8 home games.
* Road team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings.




Houston Rockets at San Antonio Spurs (-5.5, 213)

Series tied 0-0

ABOUT THE ROCKETS (59-28 SU, 45-42 ATS, 43-43-1 O/U): James Harden averaged 33.2 points, seven assists and 6.4 rebounds in the five-game, first-round win over the Thunder but went 13-of-41 from the floor over the final two cont-ests while dealing with an ankle injury. Houston is ready for the step up in competition and knows it needs to focus on execution at the end of the game against the veteran-laden Spurs. "We understand what type of team that we're playing," reserve shooting guard Lou Williams told the Houston Chronicle. "They're a very sharp team. They're not one of those teams that's going to go out there and beat themselves. You're going to have to go out there and really put in a good effort, put four good quarters together and just go win the game." Williams was second on the team in scoring in the first round behind Harden, averaging 18.8 points on 47.8 percent shooting.

ABOUT THE SPURS (65-23 SU, 45-41-2 ATS, 48-38-2 O/U): Kawhi Leonard averaged 31.2 points on 54.8 percent shooting, six rebounds and two steals in the six-game win over the Memphis Grizzlies in the first round and consistently attacked the basket, leading to a 59-of-61 effort from the free-throw line. While Leonard carried the heaviest load for San Antonio in the first round, the team also enjoyed strong performances from some of its veterans. Manu Ginobili turned back the clock with 10 points in Game 5 while point guard Tony Parker averaged 16.3 points in the series and exploded for 27 in the Game 6 clincher. "Tony wasn’t just effective today," Popovich told reporters after Game 6. "He’s done a masterful job of getting in shape down the stretch of the season and playing his best basketball during this playoff -- finding people, scoring himself, working hard defensively. He had a magnificent playoff."

LINE HISTORY: The Spurs opened as 4.5-point home favorites for Game 1 and that point spread was bet up to -5.5 by Sunday night. The total hit the betting board at 215.5 and was dropped all of the way down to 213.

INJURY REPORT:

Rockets - SF S. Dekker (Probable, hand).

Spurs - No injuries to report.

TRENDS:

* Rockets are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
* Spurs are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games playing on 3 or more days rest.
* Over is 6-1 in Rockets last 7 Conference Semifinals games.
* Over is 5-0 in Spurs last 5 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
* Road team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

[StarDust Bum]

MONDAY, MAY 1

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

TOR at CLE 07:00 PM

CLE -6.5

U 208.5

HOU at SA 09:30 PM

HOU +6.0

O 214.0

[StarDust Bum]

Monday's Best Bet
May 1, 2017

NBA Playoffs Best Bet:

Houston vs. San Antonio – Game 1

Sportsbook.ag Odds: San Antonio (-5.5); Total set at 214

The second round of the NBA Playoffs begins in the West tonight as it's the Rockets vs. Spurs in a series everyone expected to see.

However, if you didn't know anything other than it was these two teams who advanced, and I told you that one of them was 5-1 O/U in the first round and the other was 2-3 O/U, you would likely side with Houston being that 5-1 O/U team.

After all, the Spurs entered the postseason with the 2nd best defense in the league in points allowed per game and Houston was the 2nd best offensive team in points per game at 115.3. But it's actually the Spurs who cashed five of six 'over' tickets in their first round matchup with Memphis, as oddsmakers could never get the payoff from setting their numbers a little too low and many bettors took full advantage.

There won't be any sub-200 totals in this series though with the Rockets on the other side of the floor, and it's tonight's total where today's best bet comes from.

Odds per - Sportsbook.ag
Best Bet: Houston/San Antonio Over 214

I was definitely one of those who got burned waiting for the stellar defenses we saw all year from San Antonio and Memphis to tighten things up in the latter stages of that series, and while I do believe San Antonio games will start to cash 'unders' more often the rest of the time they remain in these playoffs, tonight won't be that night.

Yes, these two teams went 0-3-1 O/U in their four regular season meetings this year and that's a big reason behind the initial move on this total getting bet down from the opening line of 215.5, but with the Spurs not having to really deal with any rust after Round 1 with about the perfect amount of time off (three days), their offense should stay just as hot tonight, and they'll need it against a Houston team that can fill up the bucket.

The Rockets have been off for a little longer since knocking out OKC in five games, but their 2-3 O/U mark in the first round was more a product of very good numbers posted by oddsmakers then a real lack of scoring on their part.

Houston scored 113 or more in four of those five games, and while the Spurs defense is much better than what OKC brings to the table, getting 105+ from Houston tonight should occur.

Five of their last six trips to San Antonio have either landed on or above the posted total (4-1-1 O/U), and they aren't about to completely change their identity and engage the Spurs in a methodically-paced, slugfest of a game.

Houston's got to try and steal homecourt advantage away from San Antonio at some point in this series, and at the rate they jack up three-pointers, (nearly 40 a game), if they get hot early – and let's be honest, the Rockets are long overdue for that to happen after some very poor nights beyond the arc in the final games vs. OKC – this Game 1 is going to finish with both teams likely having 110+ on the scoreboard.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA roundup: Rockets, Cavs cruise to opening wins
May 2, 2017

SAN ANTONIO -- Trevor Ariza scored 23 points, and James Harden added 20 points and 14 assists as the Houston Rockets jumped on the San Antonio Spurs in the opening minutes and rolled to a 126-99 victory on Monday night in Game 1 of a Western Conference semifinal series.

The Rockets led by 11 after the first quarter, by 30 at halftime and by 29 at the end of the third quarter, after which Harden and Ariza were removed from the game.

Houston reserve center Nene was ejected at the end of the third quarter after a verbal altercation with San Antonio's Dewayne Dedmon. Dedmon was later ejected as well.

Houston's 22 made 3-pointers were a playoff high for a San Antonio opponent. The Rockets' starters outscored the Spurs' first-line players 77-44 in the first three quarters.

Kawhi Leonard led the Spurs with 21 points and 11 rebounds. He also sat out the fourth quarter with no hope that San Antonio could mount a comeback.

Cavaliers 116, Raptors 105

CLEVELAND -- LeBron James scored 35 points, and Cleveland continued its playoff dominance of Toronto with an easy win in Game 1 of an Eastern Conference semifinal.

James added 10 rebounds and four assists. He also tied Kobe Bryant for second place in league history with his 88th playoff game scoring at least 30 points.

Kyrie Irving had 24 points and 10 assists for Cleveland. Tristan Thompson contributed 11 points and 14 rebounds, and Kevin Love finished with 18 points and nine rebounds.

The Raptors, who were bounced by the Cavs from the Eastern Conference finals in six games last season, were led by 20 points from Kyle Lowry and 19 from DeMar DeRozan. P.J. Tucker finished with 13 points and 11 rebounds, Serge Ibaka added 15 points, and Lowry had a game-high 11 assists.

[StarDust Bum]

Tuesday’s six-pack


— Rockets 126, Spurs 99— Houston wins Game 1 easily on the road.


— Cavaliers 116, Raptors 105— Cleveland wins Game 1 on its home floor.


— Brewers 7, Cardinals 5 (10)— Milwaukee has hit 47 HR’s, most in MLB.


— Caps 3, Penguins 2 OT— Washington holds serve at home, is down 2-1 in series.


— Benches cleared in Houston last nite after Lance McCullers threw behind Mike Napoli, who had HR’d in his previous AB. Two Astros had been hit previously in the game.


— There are 14 guys in the Pro Football Hall of Fame who were the #1 pick in the draft. There are also 16 undrafted free agents.


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Tuesday’s List of 13: Nobody asked me, but……..


13) Buffalo Bills fired their GM the day after the draft; they also fired ALL their scouts, so three years after the new owner bought the team, they’re still starting from scratch.


Weird to realize that the Bills (and our country?) would be better off if the Pagulas hadn’t bought the Bills— their competition for buying the team was a real estate guy named Trump. You may have heard of him.


12) I mean, Saturday the Bills drafted QB Nathan Peterman from Pitt; ESPN guys were quick to point out that Peterman doesn’t have the greatest arm strength, which could be a problem playing in the cold weather of western New York. Oy.


11) 104 undergraduates declared for the draft; 28 of them were not drafted.


10) You don’t think high school football in Florida is better than in other places? Miami Central HS once had a running back named Davonta Freeman, now a star with the Falcons. When he graduated, he was replaced by Dalvin Cook, 2nd round draft pick of the Vikings. Not bad.


9) No one would come right out and say it, but this was a weak draft for offensive linemen. When the Rams, who are desperate for blockers, don’t take any linemen, that tells you what you need to know. Only 33 offensive linemen were drafted, 23 of them on Day 3 of the draft.


First offensive lineman taken was a 25-year old who had been kicked out of five schools and also was booted from his father’s house— no baggage there.


8) More top prospects will skip mid-level bowl games next fall, to protect themselves from injury. Didn’t hurt Fournette or McCaffrey at all this weekend, so it’ll continue next year.


7) You don’t think Nick Saban earns every penny of his ridiculous salary? Ten years ago, in the 2007 Draft, before Saban, Alabama had zero players drafted. None. Bupkus.


6) Joe Ross has a 7.47 RA in his first three starts for Washington this season, not good; Nationals scored 52 runs in those three games, though.


5) Colorado Rockies are 8-0 in one-run games this season; they were 12-20 all of last year.


4) Texas is losing faith in its bullpen; they let Yu Darvish throw 125 pitches Saturday, in an April game against the Angels- he only finished six innings.


3) Scouting is an inexact science; this is an old scouting report on a current NBA player:


“Far below NBA standard in regard to explosiveness and athleticism……extremely small……needs to add some muscle to his upper body, but appears as though he’ll always be skinny……not a natural point guard that an NBA team can rely on to run a team.”


Wonder if that scout still has his job; the player he analyzed here was Stephen Curry.


2) Pirates’ pitching coach Ray Searage is getting tons of praise around baseball, with TV guys openly saying struggling pitchers want to pitch for the Pirates so they can work with Searage, who has turned Ivan Nova into one of the best hurlers in baseball.


1— This weekend, a guy proposed to his girlfriend on the scoreboard at Fenway Park during a Red Sox game; things didn’t go well- the couple was seen arguing after.


The always-sensitive Red Sox fans started chanting: “She said no!!! She said no!!!”

[StarDust Bum]

Overall Picks of the Day:..........APRIL'S NBA PLAYOFF TOTALS
Date W-L-T % Units Record

Totals:.......43 -34..55.84%..+ 28.00

Best Bets Daily:
Sides / Totals

Totals................21 - 17 - 2....55.26%..+ 2.30................19 - 19...50.00%..- 3.00

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May's Best Bets:
Date W-L-T % Units Record

05/01/2017.......... 3-1-0.......... 75.00%........... +950

Best Bets Daily:
Sides / Totals

05/01/2017............2 - 0............100 %........+ 2.00.............1 - 1.......50%......- 0.10

[StarDust Bum]

NBA
Dunkel

Tuesday, May 2


Utah @ Golden State

Game 503-504
May 2, 2017 @ 10:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Utah
127.239
Golden State
136.026
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Golden State
by 9
202
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Golden State
by 13 1/2
207
Dunkel Pick:
Utah
(+13 1/2); Under

Washington @ Boston

Game 501-502
May 2, 2017 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Washington
124.249
Boston
124.964
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Boston
by 1
213
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Boston
by 5 1/2
218 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Washington
(+5 1/2); Under




NBA
Long Sheet

Tuesday, May 2

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WASHINGTON (53 - 36) at BOSTON (58 - 31) - 5/2/2017, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 25-16 ATS (+7.4 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
BOSTON is 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) after 3 or more consecutive wins this season.
BOSTON is 12-27 ATS (-17.7 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON is 9-3 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON is 8-4 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
6 of 12 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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UTAH (55 - 34) at GOLDEN STATE (71 - 15) - 5/2/2017, 10:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GOLDEN STATE is 101-85 ATS (+7.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 146-117 ATS (+17.3 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 84-61 ATS (+16.9 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 89-64 ATS (+18.6 Units) after a win by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 87-67 ATS (+13.3 Units) after 3 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 21-12 ATS (+7.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 58-40 ATS (+14.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
GOLDEN STATE is 7-4 against the spread versus UTAH over the last 3 seasons
GOLDEN STATE is 9-2 straight up against UTAH over the last 3 seasons
7 of 11 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Tuesday, May 2

Washington bench was -43 in Game 1 loss, where both teams shot over 50% from floor; Wizards were +7 in 11:00 Morris played- his loss hurt. Wizards lost last five games in this building (0-5 vs spread)- they lost four of last five road games overall- over is 5-2-1 in their last eight games. Boston has now won five games in row since being down 2-0 to Chicago; they’re 3-3 vs spread in last six home games- under is 3-2 in their last five games. Celtics were 19-39 on arc in Game 1; four of their last five games stayed under the total.

Golden State is still without coach Kerr; they swept Portland in last series by total of 72 points. Warriors won seven of last eight games with Utah (5-3 vs spread); under is 5-0-1 in last six series games. Jazz won last visit here April 10, game that meant lot more to them than Golden State. Utah won Game 7 in LA Sunday, has quick turnaround here; they won four of last five road games, are 6-2-1 vs spread in last nine games overall. Warriors won their last five games (4-1 vs spread); they’re 4-2-1 vs spread in last seven home tilts. Over is 7-3 in their last ten games overall.

Second round playoff series:
Boston-Washington
Bos 123-111, -4.5, O216

Cleveland-Toronto
Clev 116-105, -7, O211

San Antonio-Houston
Hst 126-99, +6, O215.5

Golden State-Utah

Favorites 2-1 (22-23-1)
Over 3-0 (25-21)

First round playoff series:
Boston-Chicago
Chi 106-102, +7, O207
Chi 111-97, +7.5, O206.5
Bos 104-87, -2.5, U206
Bos 104-95, -1.5, U204
Bos 108-97, –7.5, U205.5
Bos 105-83, -2, U203
Celtics win series 4-2

Cleveland-Indiana
Clev 109-108, -9, O208.5
Clev 117-111, -9, O210
Clev 119-114, –1.5, O210
Clev 106-102, -4, U214
Cavaliers win series, 4-0

Toronto-Milwaukee
Mil 97-83, +7.5, U197.5
Tor 106-100, -8, O195
Mil 104-77, –2, U197
Tor 87-76, +2.5, U194
Tor 118-93, -6, O193
Tor 92-89, +1.5, U196.5
Raptors win series, 4-2

Washington-Atlanta
Wash 114-107, -5.5, O209.5
Wash 109-101, -6.5, U211.5
All 110-108, -2.5, O211
Atl 111-101, -2.5 U212.5
Wash 103-99, -6.5, U212
Wash 115-99, +3, O208.5
Wizards win series, 4-2

Golden State-Portland
GState 121-109, -15.5, O220
GState 110-81, –12, U219
GState 119-113, -5, O217.5
GState 128-103, -9, O222.5
Warriors win series, 4-0

San Antonio-Memphis
SA 111-82, -9.5, O190.5
SA 96-82, -10.5, U189
Mem 105-94, +3.5, O188
Mem 110-108, +5.5, O187
SA 116-103, -10.5, O188.5
SA 103-96, -5.5, O190.5
Spurs win series, 4-2

Houston-Oklahoma City
Hst 118-87 -7.5, U227.5
Hst 115-111, -7.5, O225.5
OC 115-113, -2.5, O224
Hst 113-109, +1, U223.5
Hst 105-99, -7.5, U223.5
Rockets win series, 4-1

LA Clippers-Utah
Utah 97-95, +6, U198.5
LAC 99-91, -9, U200
LAC 111-106, -1.5, O197.5
Utah 105-98, -5, O196
Utah 96-92, +3, U195.5
LAC 96-93, +5.5, U195.5
Utah 104-91, +3.5, O190.5
Jazz wins series, 4-3

Favorites: 19-24-1 vs spread
Over: 23-21




NBA

Tuesday, May 2

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Trend Report
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8:00 PM
WASHINGTON vs. BOSTON
Washington is 2-6-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Boston
Washington is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games when playing Boston
Boston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Washington
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Boston's last 10 games when playing at home against Washington

10:30 PM
UTAH vs. GOLDEN STATE
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Utah's last 19 games when playing on the road against Golden State
Utah is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Golden State's last 15 games at home
Golden State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

[StarDust Bum]

Tuesday’s NBA Playoffs Betting Preview and Odds

The Golden State Warriors have been resting and the top-seeded team in the Western Conference plays for the first time in eight days when it opens the conference semifinals against the Utah Jazz on Tuesday.

Washington Wizards at Boston Celtics (-5.5, 218.5)

Celtics lead series 1-0

ABOUT THE WIZARDS (53-36 SU, 45-43-1 ATS, 55-33-1 O/U): The Washington Wizards jumped out to a big lead early in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference semifinals but quickly fell off the pace and now find themselves in an early hole in the best-of-seven series. Washington jumped out to a 16-0 lead and was ahead 38-24 at the end of the first quarter but watched that lead evaporate in the second quarter and disappear entirely in the third as it was outscored 71-42 in the middle two periods. Washington lost a big piece when starting power forward Markieff Morris went down in the first half of Game 1 with an ankle injury after landing on Al Horford's foot while drawing a foul. "He was in a lot of pain," star point guard John Wall, who collected 20 points and 16 assists in the loss, told reporters. "We were just hoping it wasn't his knee. He has an issue kind of spraining his ankles all the time, but we told him, 'if you don't shoot the free throw you can't come back in,' and he was just trying to get his space and take as much time as he needed." Morris, who hit the free throw before leaving the game, insisted after the contest that he would play Game 2 but others were skeptical after he was seen noticeably limping and reportedly struggled to put on his shoe over the swollen left ankle.

ABOUT THE CELTICS (58-31 SU, 45-42-2 ATS, 43-42-4 O/U): The Celtics used that ball pressure to drive into the lane and kick the ball out to open shooters while going 19-of-39 from 3-point range. Center Al Horford hit one 3-pointer as part of a 10-of-13 afternoon and helped direct the attack while finishing just shy of a triple-double with 21 points, 10 assists and nine rebounds. Boston star Isaiah Thomas flew home to Tacoma, Wash., on Saturday for his sister's funeral and flew back across the country in time for the game, during which he delivered 33 points. "I mean, it's tough but it's the playoffs," Thomas told reporters. There's no excuses. I decided to play and I just tried to give it all I got for my team, and we came out with the win." Thomas, who had a tooth knocked out after running into an elbow early in Game 1, added nine assists and buried five of the Celtics' 19 3-pointers.

LINE HISTORY: The Celtics opened as 5.5-point favorites for Game 2 and that number has yet to move. The total opened at 219 and came down slightly to 218.5.

INJURY REPORT:

Wizards - PF M. Morris (Probable, ankle), C I. Mahinmi (Out Indefinitely, calf).

Celtics - PG I. Thomas (Probable, teeth).

TRENDS:

* Wizards are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
* Celtics are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
* Over is 4-0-1 in Wizards last 5 road games.
* Over is 5-0 in Celtics last 5 vs. NBA Southeast.
* Wizards are 0-6 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Boston.




Utah Jazz at Golden State Warriors (-13.5, 206.5)

Series tied 0-0

ABOUT THE JAZZ (55-34 SU, 41-44-4 ATS, 45-44 O/U): The upstart Jazz received a stellar series performance from All-Star small forward Gordon Hayward while slaying the Clippers to give the franchise its first playoff series win since 2010. Hayward averaged 23.7 points in the series against the Clippers, including a career-best 40 in Game 3, despite being sent home at halftime of Game 4 due to food poisoning. Utah will require another stellar effort from the pending free agent for it to have any chance of upsetting the powerful Warriors. "You can see his confidence out there," Snyder told reporters of Hayward. "He's played through missed shots, contact, hot streaks, you name it. He's handled that with poise, and he's a heck of an offensive player. He's so versatile that he's hard to guard, and we try to use him in a way that allows him to shine in those situations."

ABOUT THE WARRIORS (71-15 SU, 43-40-3 ATS, 35-51 O/U): The Golden State Warriors have been resting and the top-seeded team in the Western Conference plays for the first time in eight days when it opens the conference semifinals against the Utah Jazz on Tuesday. Golden State coach Steve Kerr (back surgery complications) is expected to miss the series and it will be up to acting coach Mike Brown to get his players focused, as several of them were chirping that they would have rather played the Clippers than the Jazz due to the lack of nightlife in Utah. Point guard Stephen Curry averaged 29.8 points and made 19 3-pointers in the sweep of Portland and he averaged 26.3 points in three regular-season meetings against the Jazz. Shooting guard Klay Thompson averaged just 18.3 points on 38.8 percent shooting against the Trail Blazers and registered just one 20-point outing.

LINE HISTORY: The Warriors opened as huge 13-point favorites and that wasn't enough for the public as, by Monday afternoon, the line was bumped to -13.5. The total opened at 208 and was dropped slightly to 206.5.

INJURY REPORT:

Jazz - PF D. Favors (Questionable, back), SG A. Burks (Out Indefinitely, knee).

Warriors - SF M. Barnes (Probable, ankle), PG S. Livingston (Questionable, finger), SF K. Looney (Out Indefinitely, hip).

TRENDS:

* Jazz are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games.
* Warriors are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 vs. Western Conference.
* Over is 6-0-1 in Jazz last 7 Conference Semifinals games.
* Over is 5-1 in Warriors last 6 Conference Semifinals games.
* Jazz are 1-6 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Golden State

[StarDust Bum]

NBA
Short Sheet

Tuesday, May 2

Eastern Conference – Semifinals – Best of 7 – Game 2 – BOS Leads 1-0

Washington at Boston, 8:00 PM ET
Washington: 25-16 ATS revenging a loss to an opponent
Boston: 1-8 ATS after 4 or more wins

Western Conference – Semifinals – Best of 7 – Game 1

Utah at Golden State, 10:30 PM ET
Utah: 18-31 ATS as a road underdog
Golden State: 22-11 ATS revenging a loss to opponent

[StarDust Bum]

Tuesday's Tip Sheet
May 1, 2017

Eastern Conference Semifinals – Game 2 (Celtics lead 1-0)
Washington at Boston (TNT, 8:05 p.m. ET)

After falling behind 16-0 from the opening tip and trailing 38-24 after the first quarter, the Celtics weathered the storm and rallied for a 123-111 win over the Wizards in Game 1 this past Sunday from TD Garden.

Washington was on fire in the first quarter, connecting on 16-of-26 attempts (61.5%) from the field. The Wizards had a decent second as well and carried a 64-59 lead into the half but the third quarter was a nightmare for the visitors. After dropping 35 in the second, Boston came out with a 36-spot in the third and built a 15-point (95-80) lead heading into the final stanza.

VegasInsider.com NBA expert Tony Mejia felt the Wizards fell apart early in the second quarter due to an injury at a very inopportune time.

He explained, “Markieff Morris' availability will determine how well-equipped the Wizards are to even this series, and early indications are he won’t be at 100 percent. Washington led 45-42 when Morris' foot landed on Al Horford's and his ankle rolled significantly, forcing his exit. Not surprisingly, he was a plus-7 for the game and was missed since his size keeps Boston from comfortably playing small like it was then able to.”

Boston covered as a 4 ½-point home favorite in Game 1 and with that result, the home team is now 5-0 both straight up and against the spread in the five meetings between the pair this season.

The Celtics opened as five-point favorites for Game 2 and Mejia believes the Wizards have a solid shot to even up the series unless Boston lights it up again offensively.

“The Wizards have struggled on the road all season, but took a positive step forward by pulling out a win in a close-out game in Atlanta in Round 1 last week. They couldn't hold a 16-0 lead on Sunday, but were able to execute offensively and fell victim to the Celtics knocking down 19 3-pointers. Jae Crowder hit a career-high six 3s on just eight attempts, so Scott Brooks will have to gamble that he can't possibly stay that hot,” said Mejia.

Boston hit 51.1 percent of its shots and only got to the free throw line 15 times and they converted on 12 of them. Crowder finished with 24 on Sunday and was one of five Celtics to post double figures. Isaiah Thomas led the team with 33 points and nine assists.

Washington shot 10-of-23 from the 3-point land and both Bradley Beal (27 points) and John Wall (20 points, 16 assists) has solid efforts in the opener. Despite the injury to Morris, the Wizards controlled the paint with a plus-11 rebound edge (55-44) and they outscored the frontcourt of the Celtics by 16 points (54-38).

Including Sunday’s effort, Washington is averaging 112.4 points per game against Boston this season but that won’t matter if the Celtics fill it up again from the outside.

The Celtics are slowly earning money for bettors again at home with wins and covers in their last two games from TD Garden. Prior to the back-to-back victories, Boston was mired in a 1-8 ATS skid as a home favorite.

Mejia mentioned Washington’s struggles on the road and the numbers are very hard to ignore. Including Sunday’s loss, the Wizards are 9-21 SU as a road ‘dog this season but they did cover five of those losses (14-16 ATS).

The Zig-Zag theory wasn’t exactly a great bet in the first-round of the playoffs, especially in Game 2 where we watched six of the eight series produce 2-0 leads. With that being said, Mejia believes Washington is still in a good spot come Tuesday.

He said, “Although the Celtics are 34-0 when they go up 2-0 in a series, Game 2 is by no means a must-win for Washington. For starters, most of the Boston teams that have built that record up are far superior to this one. With the Wizards headed home afterward, they'll be favored in Game 3 given their 32-11 record at the Phone Booth, which includes an eight-game winning streak. If anything, there's more pressure on a Celtics squad that is just 2-2 at home this postseason to hold serve, particularly if Morris sits.”

The ‘over’ (216) cashed easily in Game 1 and the number was juiced up to 219 for Game 2 but has settled at 218 ½ as of Monday evening. Washington has seen the ‘over’ go 4-2-1 in the playoffs while Boston has watched the ‘under’ go 4-3 but all three tickets to the high side came at home.

The series heads back to Washington on Thursday for Game 3.

Western Conference Semifinals - Game 1
Utah at Golden State (TNT, 10:35 p.m. ET)

2016-17 Regular Season (Warriors 2-1)
Dec. 8 Warriors (-11.5) 106 at Jazz 99 (Under 208)
Dec. 20 Warriors (-12.5) 104 vs. Jazz 74 (Under 210.5)
Apr. 10 Jazz (+10.5) at Warriors 99 (Under 205.5)

This matchup will pit Golden State’s league-leading offense (115.9) against Utah’s top-ranked defense (96.8 PPG) and the oddsmakers aren’t giving much of a chance to the latter in this best-of-seven series.

Golden State hasn’t played since last Wednesday when it complete a four-game sweep of the Portland Trail Blazers in the first round. The Warriors covered three of those games and the offense lit up Portland for 119.5 PPG and the production was better at the Moda Center (123.5 PPG) despite playing with a limited roster too.

All-Star Kevin Durant only played in two of the games while Shaun Livingston sat out three games and Matt Barnes didn’t suit up for any of the series due to injuries. Barnes is upgraded to ‘probable’ for Tuesday but Livingston remains ‘questionable’ for Game 1. Durant is expected to get more minutes after being monitored versus Portland.

While Golden State was resting, Utah was gaining confidence this past Sunday as it defeated the Clippers 104-91 on the road in Game 7 of the first round. It was the franchise’s first postseason victory since 2010 and what stood out is that three of their four wins occurred at the Staples Center.

Fast forward to Tuesday and the oddsmakers aren’t expecting Utah to keep its momentum going as it heads to the Bay Area.

Golden State opened as a 13-point favorite over Utah and that’s been a common theme amongst the pair. The Jazz weren’t listed as double-digit underdogs in any other games this season except for its three games versus Golden State.

Including those three regular season matchups listed above, the Warriors have won 13 of the past 15 meetings against the Jazz and they’ve covered nine of those wins, which is very impressive considering they were giving 10-plus points in nine of those games.

Does Utah have any shot to pull off the monumental upset or at least keep it within the number?

Mejia chimed in with his thoughts on the series.

“The Jazz have to hope that a full week between games will result in some rust for the Warriors, even though that seems unlikely. Golden State didn't start its usual lineup until Game 1 of the Blazers series and then wasn't able to turn back to it until Game 4, so the chances they won't be ready to go after a week of practices and treatment for those who were banged up are slim. Utah may have a mental edge in being better engaged, coming off such a dominant performance in a do-or-die situation, but that will only carry them so far on the road against the fresher, more talented team,” said Mejia.

“The question then becomes, can Utah cover the spread and put forth a competitive series? That will depend on the effectiveness of Rudy Gobert and Derrick Favors, neither of whom are 100 percent. If their size can wear down Draymond Green and help teammates find easy buckets against a defense that has been tremendous for months, with and without Durant, the Jazz may hang around longer than most expect them to. If the game is too fast for them, Golden State will break out the brooms again.”

The ‘under’ went 3-0 between the pair this season and is 8-6-1 in the last 15 encounters. While Utah was able to drop triple digits on Los Angeles in three games of their first round series, the club has been held under 100 points in 10 of the last 15 meetings against Golden State the last five seasons.

Bettors believing Utah can pull off the series upset can take a shot with a generous odds listed as high as 20/1 (Bet $100 to win 20) at Sportsbook.ag. For those expecting Golden State to advance to its third straight conference finals, it will cost you a healthy price of minus-10000 which means every $100 wagered brings you back one dollar.

Exact game odds are also available and the top two choices are expecting Golden State to sweep (6/5) or close out the Jazz in five games (5/4).

Game 2 will be played from the Bay Area on Thursday.

[StarDust Bum]

Jazz try to slow Warriors in 2nd round
May 1, 2017

OAKLAND, Calif. (AP) The Utah Jazz had the slowest pace in the league during the regular season, while the push-it-at-every-chance Golden State Warriors were among the fastest as they tried to establish their tempo from the tip.

That clash of styles even showed up in the first round of the playoffs, as the Jazz needed a Game 7 to get past the Los Angeles Clippers. The Warriors dismantled Portland in a four-game sweep and haven't played since April 24, waiting to find out their opponent.

''I think we can play both styles. That's kind of their MO to slow the game down and try to make it a slugfest,'' Warriors forward Draymond Green said.

It became a big advantage as Kevin Durant, Stephen Curry and Co. got well-rested, healthy and ready for the next challenge in their championship chase: those upstart youngsters from Utah in Game 1 of the Western Conference semifinals Tuesday night.

''I don't mind that we're young and we're green,'' Jazz coach Quin Snyder said. ''I just want us to be good. It's hard to be good against the Warriors but that's what we're up against.''

The Jazz are the only team to beat Golden State in the last 20 contests, winning a mostly meaningless regular-season game on April 10 in Oakland.

Repeating that in the playoffs will be much harder but Utah knows what it must do: limit Golden State's chances in transition, make the Warriors work hard in the half court and find some way to score while grinding it out on the offensive end.

That's the formula the Jazz have used most of the season while allowing the fewest points and playing the fewest possessions in the NBA.

''For us, the pace with which we play has not been deliberate,'' Snyder said. ''It's a deliberate way of playing. It's more of a function of our personnel.''

Here are some things to watch in the series:

MISSING COACH: The Warriors are now prepared to push on without ailing head coach Steve Kerr perhaps for the remainder of the postseason.

The reigning NBA Coach of the Year is dealing with debilitating symptoms stemming from complications following two back surgeries two years ago after the team's 2015 championship run.

''The way we look at it, plan on him not to come back,'' Green said. ''Mike Brown is our coach. We have the rest of our staff and that's what we're rolling with.''

FOUL COUNT: The Jazz got very little out of perhaps their most important player in the first round. Rudy Gobert sprained his ankle early in Game 1 and missed the next two games. He then sprained his ankle again late in Game 6 before fouling out in only 13 minutes in Game 7.

Keeping Gobert on the court is paramount for the Jazz after he led the NBA in blocked shots with 2.6 per game in the regular season, while averaging 14 points and 12.8 rebounds.

''It's hard to figure out a plan for a guy not to foul out in 13 minutes in Game 7 of a playoff series,'' Snyder said. ''He's got to be smart. He can't put himself in positons to pick up silly fouls.''

LONG LAYOFF: Green figures it might take the Warriors a quarter or so to get clicking after not playing in so long.

''The break was good, but sheesh, long,'' Green said. ''We were pretty banged up. That week break was good for us.''

Durant should be fully healthy from a strained left calf that sidelined him the first three games against the Trail Blazers.

FAVORS' BACK: The Jazz wouldn't mind an extra day off mainly to get power forward Derrick Favors healthy. Favors missed practice Monday with a sore lower back and is questionable for Game 1. Favors is coming off one of his best performances of the season with 17 points and 11 rebounds in the Game 7 win over the Clippers.

NIGHT LIFE: Some of the Warriors players talked about wishing they were playing the Clippers instead of the Jazz, mostly for the chance to have some time off in Los Angeles rather than Salt Lake City.

Utah forward Joe Ingles has a solution for them.

''They can go to L.A. between the games if they want,'' Ingles said. ''They have enough money to pay for the jet if they want and come back on game days. If they want the entertainment, they can drive to Vegas, too. I'll hire the car for them.''

[StarDust Bum]

Celtics look like top seed; Warriors rested for surging Jazz
May 1, 2017

BOSTON (AP) For the first time this postseason, there is a calm beginning to settle over the Boston Celtics.

The top-seeded Celtics struggled to find their footing at the outset of their first-round series with Chicago after their leader Isaiah Thomas' sister was killed in a car accident.

But after four straight wins to finish off the Bulls and overcoming a slow start and lost tooth by Thomas to earn a double-digit win over the Wizards in the opener of the East semifinals, Boston now resembles the team it looked like at the end of regular season. It plays Washington in Game 2 on Tuesday night.

In the night's other game, Golden State, the West's top seed, is playing on eight days' rest as it opens its semifinal matchup with Utah. The Jazz are coming off a Game 7 win over the Los Angeles Clippers on Sunday night.

Before Game 1 of the Boston-Washington series, Celtics coach Brad Stevens was asked about the lack of deep playoff experience for a team that hadn't made it out of the first round the past two seasons.

He acknowledged that while experience ''certainly is a talking point'' when comparing the rosters of the two teams, ''there's a lot of power in having some naivet�, too.''

His team's production seems to be underlining that assessment.

Following his game-high 33-point effort on Sunday, Thomas now has three 30-point games this postseason after just one in his previous 10 playoff games.

What's more, offseason acquisition Al Horford also is producing at the level the Celtics hoped he would after being slowed by injury in the regular season.

He's coming off 21 points, 10 assists and nine rebounds in Game 1, when he recorded his second double-double of the postseason. He has had at least 12 points, five rebounds and five assists in a career-high three straight playoff games.

''I would say probably the last couple weeks of the season is when I felt like I started to get in some sort of a rhythm,'' Horford said. ''Some guys can go right in and just do their thing, and others it takes a little more time before you're fully comfortable with the system and what's expected.''

Washington could have a tougher time containing Horford in Game 2. The status of forward Markieff Morris is up the air after he landed awkwardly on Horford's foot and sprained his ankle early in Game 1.

Here are some things to know:

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NEED TO KNOW: Thomas sat out practice Monday so he could visit the dentist and have the tooth he lost in Game 1 repaired. But Stevens said all indications were that Thomas would be ready for Game 2.

KEEP AN EYE ON: The Celtics' lineup. Stevens made an early move to his bench in Game 1, replacing Gerald Green - who had started four straight games - with regular-season starter Amir Johnson. He made another change in the second half, inserting Marcus Smart in the starting group. Smart played 31 minutes, registering six points, four assists, three steals and three blocks. The team was plus-12 with him on the floor.

INJURY UPDATE: Morris received treatment Sunday night and Monday, and sat out the team's practice session. Coach Scott Brooks said his status was game to game at this point, though Morris reiterated his intention to be on the court for Game 2.

''I'm playing tomorrow. That's final,'' Morris said. ''There's nothing that doctors can say to me for me not to be able to play.''

PRESSURE IS ON: The Wizards. Washington hasn't won a playoff series in which it was down 0-2 since winning four straight against Chicago in the first round of the 2004-05 playoffs.

[StarDust Bum]

Overall Picks of the Day:..........APRIL'S NBA PLAYOFF TOTALS
Date W-L-T % Units Record

Totals:.......43 -34..55.84%..+ 28.00

Best Bets Daily:
Sides / Totals

Totals................21 - 17 - 2....55.26%..+ 2.30................19 - 19...50.00%..- 3.00

******************************
May's Best Bets:
Date W-L-T % Units Record

05/01/2017.......... 3-1-0.......... 75.00%........... +950

Best Bets Daily:
Sides / Totals

05/01/2017............2 - 0............100 %........+ 2.00.............1 - 1.......50%......- 0.10

[StarDust Bum]

TUESDAY, MAY 2

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

WAS at BOS 08:00 PM

BOS -5.5

O 217.5

UTA at GS 10:30 PM

UTA +13.0

U 207.0

[StarDust Bum]

Tuesday's Best Bet
May 2, 2017

NBA Playoffs Best Bet
Utah Jazz vs. Golden State Warriors – Game 1

Sportsbook.ag Odds: Golden State (-13); Total set at 206.5

The final series of Round 2 gets going tonight as the Utah Jazz and Golden State Warriors renew acquaintances.

Golden State took the regular season series 2-1 SU (1-2 ATS), but their outright loss came at the end of the year when Kevin Durant was still getting back into game shape after a long absence and Klay Thompson sat for rest.

However, Utah's Gordon Hayward and Rodney Hood did not play in that game either, so take what you will from a game that meant little to either side at the end of the year.

All the big names will be on the floor tonight as this series gets going and what may be the biggest takeaway for Utah in that late-season victory was the fact that it came IN Golden State and they got tremendous production from numerous guys on their roster.

Six different Jazz players scored in double figures that day and if they are able to get balanced scoring like that in this series, they'll be a lot tougher of an out for the Warriors than many believe.

Odds per - Sportsbook.ag
Best Bet: Over 206.5 points

Rather than try to dissect the side tonight and even consider laying or taking the 13 points, it's the total I'm attacking in Game 1 as all the early movement towards the 'under' is a little unwarranted. The total opened up at 208, was instantly dropped to 206.5, fell further to 205.5 and has since been bumped back up to 206.5 again.

Granted, much of that initial 'under' move likely had something to do with the fact that all three games between the two this year cashed 'under' tickets, and not one game had more than 205 total points scored. But we've already seen in these playoffs that scoring is generally up with 'over' bets cashing at quite a good rate, and Game 1's of Round 2 are already 3-0 O/U. This Game 1 should continue that trend tonight.

For one, Utah may be known for their defense, but they found their offense against the Clippers in the first round, scoring 100+ in three of the seven games; winning two of them. No matter how good the Jazz's defense can be, the entire team understands that they'll have to be able to put up their fair share of points against the Warriors in this series.

You aren't going to completely lock down Golden State's plethora of offensive weapons in a seven-game set, and like we saw from the Rockets and their three-point prowess in Game 1 vs. San Antonio, there is likely to be at least one game in this series where the Warriors catch absolute fire from beyond the arc. Whether or not that's tonight remains to be seen, but bettors shouldn't expect to see a total much lower than this the rest of the series (maybe for Game 3 in Utah it will be lower).

Thus, with a number that's relatively low here, it's hard not to like the game to eclipse this number, especially when you consider that Golden State's situation resembles that of another team we saw open up their Round 2 series last night.

Cleveland was off for about a week between rounds and while there was plenty of talk about rust, they eliminated those thoughts in a hurry when they blitzed the Raptors in the first half by putting up 62 points. Golden State is definitely capable of doing a similar thing against a Jazz team that may still be a bit tired after their seven-game set with the Clippers, and tonight's big point spread suggests the Warriors will be filling up the hoop with regularity after extended rest.

Golden State has gone 7-3 O/U in their last 10 games overall, and with a full, and healthy arsenal of offensive weapons at their disposal, it would not be surprising to see Golden State put up 120+ tonight. Utah's strong defense is more likely to show up in Game 2 when they have more time to prepare and make adjustments to what happens tonight and if that's the case, missing out on an easy winner with tonight's 'over' will have you kicking yourself in bed this evening.