The Bum's 2016 NBA Best Bets-Trends-News-Stats !

[StarDust Bum]

Thursday’s NBA Playoffs Betting Preview and Odds

Boston Celtics at Washington Wizards (-5.5, 218.5)

Celtics lead series 2-0

ABOUT THE CELTICS (59-31 SU, 46-42-2 ATS, 44-42-4 O/U): Isaiah Thomas is persevering through personal tragedy and putting the Boston Celtics on his back in dedication to his late sister. Thomas will try to summon the energy once again, this time on the road, when the Celtics visit the Washington Wizards for Game 3. Thomas added physical pain to his emotional toll after having a tooth knocked out in Game 1 and sitting through a second round of dental surgery prior to Game 2. "What else is there to say?" Boston coach Brad Stevens asked reporters. "There's a point (Tuesday) when he was not feeling good at all and was having a tough day. And I thought he was going to really have to gut this one out. And he not only guts it out, he ends up with 50. Pretty impressive." Thomas is getting plenty of help from center Al Horford, who is 16-of-22 from the floor in the series and logged a double-double in each of the first two contests.

ABOUT THE WIZARDS (53-37 SU, 45-44-1 ATS, 56-33-1 O/U): John Wall collected 40 points and 13 assists for the Wizards in Game 2, but it wasn't quite enough to match Thomas. "It was a heck of a basketball game," Washington coach Scott Brooks told reporters. "Two teams played their hearts out. Two great players played well. I thought both teams competed, played their hearts out, nothing to be ashamed of. We lost both games. Now we got to go home and take care of Game 3." Thomas did a lot of his damage in the paint, where Washington Center Marcin Gortat and hobbled power forward Markieff Morris struggled to defend. Morris suffered a sprained ankle in Game 1 but came out for Game 2 and scored 14 points before fouling out in just 27 minutes. "He brings a lot to our team with toughness," Brooks told reporters of Morris. "He's a very physical, tough player. He competes. He’s done everything for us throughout this season, been great to coach. He had a great game. He really competed. Unfortunately, our two bigs got in foul trouble. But I thought he did a great job of competing and put us in the position to win the game."

LINE HISTORY: The Wizards opened as five-point home favorites for Game 3 and by Wednesday night that number was bet up to -5.5. The total opened at 219 and dropped slightly down to 218.5.

INJURY REPORT:

Celtics - SG A. Bradley (Probable, hip).

Wizards - SF O. Porter Jr. (Probable, elbow), PF M. Morris (Probable, ankle), C I. Mahinmi (Out Indefinitely, calf).

TRENDS:

* Celtics are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
* Wizards are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
* Under is 12-3-2 in Celtics last 17 road games.
* Over is 4-1-1 in Wizards last 6 overall.
* Home team is 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings.




Utah Jazz at Golden State Warriors (-12.5, 204)

Warriors lead series 1-0

ABOUT THE JAZZ (55-35 SU, 42-44-4 ATS, 45-45 O/U): Fifth-seeded Utah never kicked its offense in gear with Hayward and postseason standout Joe Johnson struggling, and center Rudy Gobert was the club's high scorer with 13 points. "We just didn't execute like we wanted to and missed some shots," Hayward said during postgame festivities. "So definitely not the way we wanted to start, but just one game. Have to figure something out and be ready for the next one." Hayward scored 20 or more points on five occasions during the seven-game first-round series against the Los Angeles Clippers but was a shaky 4-of-15 in the opener against the Warriors. "I didn't feel like Gordon was hesitant to shoot," Jazz coach Quin Snyder told reporters. "They did a good job trying to limit his looks. But the couple clean ones he got, he's been making those, and I would anticipate him making those." Johnson tallied just 11 points in Game 1 and Utah needs a better showing from point guard George Hill, who had just seven points in the opener after averaging 16.9 points in the series against the Clippers.

ABOUT THE WARRIORS (72-15 SU, 43-41-3 ATS, 35-52 O/U): The Golden State Warriors controlled the flow in the opener of the Western Conference semifinals and look to take a 2-0 lead when they host the Utah Jazz on Thursday. The Warriors didn't look rusty in Monday's 106-94 victory, a contest in which they limited Utah star forward Gordon Hayward to 12 points. Top-seeded Golden State committed just seven turnovers while forcing 14 in the opener as it overcame a shoddy 7-of-29 performance from 3-point range to post the victory. Curry (left ankle) suffered an injury during Game 1 and missed practice on Wednesday but isn't expected to be hampered in terms of Game 2. He only played 21 seconds in the final quarter and insisted after the contest that it was "just routine maintenance" and "it's nothing to worry about." Small forward Kevin Durant scored 17 points in the opener and looks nearly fully recovered from the calf injury that caused him to miss two games in the first-round series against the Portland Trail Blazers.

LINE HISTORY: The Warriors opened as 12.5-point home favorites for Game 2 and the total hit the board at 204. Neither number has moved as of Wednesday night.

INJURY REPORT:

Jazz - SG A. Burks (Out Indefinitely, knee).

Warriors - PG S. Curry (Probable, ankle), SF K. Looney (Out Indefinitely, hip).

TRENDS:

* Jazz are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games.
* Warriors are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games playing on 1 days rest.
* Under is 6-1 in Jazz last 7 road games.
* Under is 4-1 in Warriors last 5 home games.
* Jazz are 2-6 ATS in the last 8 meetings in Golden State.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA
Dunkel

Thursday, May 4


Utah @ Golden State

Game 507-508
May 4, 2017 @ 10:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Utah
122.208
Golden State
141.132
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Golden State
by 19
207
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Golden State
by 12 1/2
204 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Golden State
(-12 1/2); Over

Boston @ Washington

Game 505-506
May 4, 2017 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Boston
125.825
Washington
123.486
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Boston
by 2 1/2
210
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Washington
by 5 1/2
219
Dunkel Pick:
Boston
(+5 1/2); Under




NBA
Short Sheet

Thursday, May 4

Eastern Conference – Semifinals – Best of 7 – Game 3 – BOS Leads 2-0

Boston at Washington, 8:00 PM ET
Boston: 15-5 ATS in road games off an ATS Win
Washington: 53-73 ATS coming off a road game

Western Conference – Semifinals – Best of 7 – Game 2 – GSW Leads 1-0

Utah at Golden State, 10:30 PM ET
Utah: 75-49 ATS revenging a loss to opponent
Golden State: 11-1 UNDER when playing only their 2nd game in 7 days

[StarDust Bum]

Thursday's Tip Sheet
May 3, 2017

**Boston at Washington**

-- To be clear, this series is far from over. But Washington can’t be in a good place mentally right now, not after getting out to huge first-half leads in both Games 1 and 2 at Boston, only to lose both contests. Even worse, bettors who took the Wizards in Game 2 were left with a gut-wrenching defeat that was just flat-out wrong on so many levels. Just as it did in the series opener, Scott Brooks’s team raced out to a double-digit advantage in the first quarter. In doing so, the Wizards cashed money-line tickets for their backers in both the first quarter (+135) and first half (+150). However, after trailing 42-29 going into the second quarter, Boston sliced the deficit to three by intermission. But Washington responded at the start of the third quarter with a 13-3 run and held a double-digit lead for more than eight minutes. Boston took its first lead since it was 3-2 on Avery Bradley’s 3-ball with 7:03 remaining in the final stanza. The Wizards recovered nicely, though, and led by six with 2:26 left until Isaiah Thomas drained a trey. After getting a stop, Terry Rozier buried a 24-footer to pull even at 110-110. Wall countered by making one of two free throws, only to see Thomas hit a 20-foot jumper to put the Celtics in front by one. Next, Otto Porter Jr. buried a 3-ball for a two-point Washington lead with 32 ticks left. Thomas tied the game with a pair of free throws, and then Wall and Bradley Beal missed potential game winners to prompt an overtime session.

-- In OT, Washington’s Kelly Oubre Jr. started the scoring with a 3-pointer, but Boston scored eight unanswered points to go ahead by five. Oubre cut the deficit to three with a putback bucket off an offensive board at the 1:28 mark. But Boston scored the last seven points to cover the number in miraculous fashion as a five-point ‘chalk.’ The 248 combined climbed ‘over’ the 218.5-point total, but we should note that the ‘over’ was already winner in regulation when there were 228 combined points scored.

-- On the day that would’ve been his younger sister’s 23rd birthday if she hadn’t tragically passed away in a one-car crash last month, Thomas scored 53 points on 18-of-33 shooting from the field. He also had four rebounds, four assists and three steals. Al Horford contributed 15 points, 12 rebounds, three assists, two blocked shots and one steal. However, for those backing Horford’s proposition bet to score ‘over’ 15.5 points, came up on the losing end. Bradley and Jae Crowder added 14 points apiece, while Rozier tallied 12 points, six board and four assists without a turnover. Rozier also had a team-best +25 plus-minus rating.

-- Washington had seven players score in double figures led by Wall, who finished with 40 points, 13 assists, three steal, three rebounds and three blocked shots. Beal, who had scored 27 points or more in four straight games, had only 14 points. The former one-and-done Florida Gator hit just 4-of-15 attempts from the field and 1-of-9 from 3-point range. Beal also had five rebounds and four assists, but he coughed up six turnovers. After leaving Game 1 midway through the second quarter and not returning due to a turned ankle, Markieff Morris produced 16 points, six boards, two steals and one block before fouling out. Marcin Gortat finished with 14 points, 10 boards and two blocks before also fouling out. Porter had 13 points, nine rebounds, four assists and two steals despite injuring his arm/elbow on a hard fall in the first half. Oubre tallied 12 points and seven boards, while Jason Smith added 10 points.

-- As of Wednesday night, most betting shops had Washington (53-37 straight up, 45-44-1 against the spread) installed as a 5.5-point favorite with a total of 219. Gamblers could take the Celtics to win outright for a +195 payout (risk $100 to win $195). For first-half wagers, the Wizards were favored by four points with a 106.5-point tally.

-- Washington owns a 33-11 SU record and a 25-19 ATS mark in its home games this year.

-- Boston (59-31 SU, 46-42-2 ATS) has thrived on the road all season, producing a 26-18 SU record to go with a 26-16-2 ATS mark. The Celtics have won four in a row on the road both SU and ATS, including three scalps at Chicago in the first round of the playoffs by margins of 17, 9 and 22 points.

-- Since losing Games 1 and 2 at home to Chicago, Brad Stevens’s squad has ripped off six consecutive wins both SU and ATS. All six wins have been by nine points or more and five have come by double-digit margins.

-- Boston has been an underdog 18 times season, compiling a 10-8 spread record.

-- Boston and Washington have now met six times this year. The home team has won and covered the spread in all six of those encounters (four in Boston, two in Washington). The ‘over’ is 4-2 in those six contests.

-- The ‘over’ has hit at a 5-2-1 rate for the Wizards in these playoffs, including three straight. The ‘over’ is 56-33-1 overall for the Wizards, 26-18 in their home contests.

-- Boston has seen the ‘over’ go 5-3 in its postseason games to date. The ‘over’ is 44-42-4 overall for the Celtics, but the ‘under’ is 24-18-2 in their road assignments. They’ve watched the ‘under’ cash in all three of their road playoff games.

-- The ‘over’ has cashed in each of the first two games in this series and the oddsmakers pushed the number up to 219 for Game 3.VegasInsider.com NBA analyst Chris David offered up his thoughts on the total for Thursday:

“I believe the public will press the ‘over’ in Game 3 and based on what we’ve seen from both teams, it’s hard to argue to the low side. The pair combined to shoot 70 bombs from 3-point land on Tuesday, which is a ridiculous number but that’s the new-NBA we’re watching these days. Game 2 also received some help from the officials as both teams went to the free throw line 56 times,” said David.

“While another shootout is expected, I would urge bettors to keep some things in mind before pressing the ‘over’ on Thursday. Boston has watched the ‘under’ go 3-0 on the road in the playoffs this season and the club is 7-1 to the low side under Brad Stevens. The Celtics are only averaging 95 PPG during this span and they were held to 108 and 93 to Washington this season. Even though the Wizards were torched in the first two games from TD Garden, they held the Hawks to 102.3 PPG in the first round. And if you look back at Washington’s recent playoff numbers at home, they’ve held eight of their last 13 opponents under 100 in the postseason. As much as you don’t want to fade Boston, considering its team total under (107) in Game 3 could be a lean.”

-- The updated series price at Sportsbook.ag is Boston -480, Washington +380 (risk $100 to win $380).

-- The offshore website has Boston’s odds to win the NBA Finals at 12/1, while Washington’s future number is 150/1.

-- Tip-off is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

**Utah at Golden State**

-- As of Wednesday night, most spots had Golden State (72-15 SU, 43-41-3 ATS) listed as a 12.5-point ‘chalk’ with a total of 204. The Jazz had 10/1 money-line odds at The Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas (risk $100 to win $1,000). For first-half bets, the Warriors were favored by 7.5 points with a total of 98.5

-- Oddsmakers sent out a total of 204 ½ for Game 2, which is two points lower than the number in the opener between the pair. David believes the move is right and wouldn’t be surprised to see it drop further as the series progresses.

David said, “A lot of bettors might not be aware of this but Golden State produced one of the best ‘under’ (50-32) records in the regular season. The defense of the Warriors is often overlooked due to their big-name players and offensive ability, but the unit was ranked 11th in scoring defense (104 PPG). And for whatever reason, Utah hasn’t had any ability of breaking down Golden State. Including Monday’s result, the Jazz have been held under 100 points in 11 of their last 16 encounters against the Warriors. The ‘under’ is now 4-0 between the pair this season and barring a huge outburst by Golden State in Game 2, I would lean to the low side again.”

-- Golden State has a 39-5 SU record and a 22-20-2 ATS mark in its home contests.

-- The Warriors have limped to a 22-31 spread record as double-digit ‘chalk’ this year.

-- Golden State won Game 1 by a 106-94 count, but Utah covered the spread as a 13-point underdog thanks to a 6-0 run to close the game. The 200 combined points dipped ‘under’ the 206-point total. All five starters scored in double figures for the winners led by Steph Curry, who had a game-high 22 points to go with seven rebounds and five assists. Draymond Green added 17 points, eight boards, two blocked shots, two steals and six assists without a turnover. Kevin Durant finished with 17 points, five rebound and five assists compared to only one turnover. Klay Thompson and Zaza Pachulia contributed 15 and 10 points, respectively.

-- Utah placed four players in double figures in the series opener, including Rudy Gobert (13 pts.), Gordon Hayward (12), Rodney Hood (12) and Joe Johnson (11). Gobert had eight rebounds, three assists and a pair of blocks.

-- Utah won three road games (Games 1, 5 and 7) in the opening round against the Clippers. The Jazz are 6-1 ATS with four outright victories in its last seven games as an underdog.

-- Utah (55-35 SU, 42-44-4 ATS) has posted a 25-21 SU record and a 22-23-1 ATS ledger in its road games this season.

-- Utah owns a 3-1 spread record in four games as a double-digit underdog this year. Also, the Jazz are 6-1 ATS when listed as a ‘dog of eight points or more.

-- Sportsbook.ag has Golden State as the -285 ‘chalk’ to win the NBA Finals.

-- Sportsbook.ag has the updated series price as Golden State -15000, Utah +2500 (25/1, risk $100 to win $2,500).

-- Like David noted above, the ‘under’ has been a winner in all four head-to-head meetings between these clubs this year. Going back even further, the ‘under’ is 6-0-1 in the last seven games of this rivalry. We should note, however, that if this number holds at 204, it’ll be the second-lowest out of the last seven games (203.5 being the lowest).

-- The ‘under’ is 5-3 for Utah in the playoffs so far. For the season, totals have been an overall wash for the Jazz (45-45), but the ‘over’ is 24-22 in its road assignments. With that said, the ‘under’ is 4-1 in Utah’s five postseason road contests.

-- The ‘over’ is 3-2 for the Warriors in the playoffs to date, going 1-2 in their home outings. However, the ‘under’ has been a major money maker for Golden St. all year, compiling a 52-33 overall record. The Warriors have seen the ‘under’ go 24-20 in their home games.

-- If this total holds at 204, it will be the lowest tally Golden State has seen since a March 11 game at San Antonio. That was 22 games ago when the Warriors lost 107-85 to the Spurs and the 192 combined points dipped ‘under’ the 197.5-point tally.

-- ESPN will have the broadcast at 10:35 p.m. Eastern.

[StarDust Bum]

Spurs plan playoff life without Parker
May 4, 2017

SAN ANTONIO -- Gregg Popovich, known more for his scowl and scathing responses to media, summarized the status of San Antonio Spurs point guard Tony Parker in three words on Wednesday night.

"It's not good," Popovich said of Parker's left leg injury after the Spurs beat the Houston Rockets to even the Western Conference semifinals at 1-1.

Parker was carried off the floor by teammates with 8:43 remaining in the Spurs' 121-96 victory.

Parker, who scored 18 points, was clutching his left knee as he lay on the floor after missing a short shot.

Teammates and Houston players walked over to console him. He was carried off by teammates Dewayne Dedmon and Dejounte Murray, and did not look up as the crowd chanted his name.

Manu Ginobili said Wednesday night that Parker was in significant pain and unable to bear weight on his left leg.

"It's hard to see him limping and hurting now, and you kind of know we're not going to see him any time soon," Ginobili said. "That's a tough blow. We shall see. We don't know."

The Spurs announced that Parker would have an MRI on Thursday.

Parker missed 16 games in the regular season and San Antonio went 12-4. Patty Mills was the primary point guard without Parker and Ginobili served as the lead backup. Murray, a rookie, also figures into the mix.

Parker, 34, is in his 15th season and has helped the Spurs win five NBA titles.

[StarDust Bum]

Preview: Celtics (53-29) at Wizards (49-33)
Date: May 04, 2017 8:00 PM EDT

WASHINGTON -- John Wall darted, dashed and dished from all over the court in Tuesday's Game 2 of the Eastern Conference semifinal series between his Washington Wizards and the Boston Celtics.

The performance was MVP worthy and solid enough to be the headliner on most nights. Just not that night, as the smallest player on the court rose above all.

The best-of-seven series could be short if the Wizards cannot keep Isaiah Thomas in check.

Thomas scored 53 points -- 29 during the fourth quarter and overtime -- as Boston pulled away for a 129-119 win over Washington. The Celtics lead 2-0 in the series with the next two matchups on the Wizards' home court, starting with Thursday's Game 3.

Maybe playing on familiar turf will help Washington's defenders deal with the 5-foot-9 Thomas. Considering he's thriving on the court despite all that life has thrown his way in recent days, who knows if stopping Thomas is any playbook?

On Saturday, Thomas attended the funeral of his sister, Chyna, who died in a car accident last month. His latest breathtaking performance -- he scored one less point than the entire Washington team over the final 17 minutes -- came on what would have been his sister's 23rd birthday. It also came the same day Thomas endured dental surgery after having a tooth knocked out in Game 1.

"What else is there to say?" Celtics coach Brad Stevens said of his team's leading man. "You know, there's a point today when he was not feeling good at all, and was having a tough day, and I thought he was going to really have to gut this one out. And he not only guts it out, he ends up with (53). Pretty impressive."

Wall was quite impressive for the Wizards, finishing with 40 points, 13 assists, three steals and three blocks. Fueled by its point guard and a gutty performance from starting power forward Markieff Morris, Washington led 110-104 with 2:43 remaining in regulation.

Boston tied the game on back-to-back 3-pointers by Thomas and Terry Rozier. After an Otto Porter 3-pointer put Washington up 114-112, Thomas again tied the game, sinking two free throws with 14 seconds left.

Wall and Bradley Beal missed jump shots for Washington on the final possession of regulation.

"It was tough. We had opportunities to win this game," Wall said. "Last 2-3 minutes, (we) had the opportunities to make shots, but we missed some good looks. They came down and made some tough shots. They made shots that we missed."

All of Washington's starters scored in double figures, including 14 from Beal, but his line included 1-of-9 shooting on 3-pointers.

Morris exited Game 1 with a sprained ankle after landing on the foot of Boston's Al Horford. His status for Tuesday's contest was unclear until the pre-game introductions.

Announced with the starters, Morris had 16 points in 27 minutes. He also helped set the game's physical tone by shoving Horford out of bounds as the two tussled for a loose ball.

"He adds a lot to our team with toughness," Wizards coach Scott Brooks said of Morris. "He's a very physical, tough player. He competes; he's done everything for us throughout this season."

The same can be said of Thomas, who came up one point shy of the franchise record for points in a playoff game. John Havlicek scored 54 in 1973.

"I didn't know I was close to 50. I was just so locked in that fourth quarter and overtime because I wanted to win the game so bad that I really didn't know what I had," Thomas said. "I just knew that I had to keep being aggressive. ... It's nice for your name to be in Celtics history because of all the great players, but until you win one of those Championships you can't call yourself a great player until you do that. That is the ultimate goal."

Washington won both home regular-season games against Boston.

***********************

SERIES AT A GLANCE

GAME 1
Wizards at Celtics
Sun, Apr 30 Final 111 to 123
Recaps

GAME 2
Wizards at Celtics
Tue, May 2 Final 119 to 129
Recaps

GAME 3
Celtics at Wizards
Thu, May 4 - 8:00PM EDT

GAME 4
Celtics at Wizards
Sun, May 7 - 6:30PM EDT

**************************

NBA HEAD TO HEAD

Mar 20, 2017 Score ATS Results
WAS 102 Under: 212
BOS « 110 Cover: 4
Tools: Recaps

Jan 24, 2017 Score ATS Results
BOS 108 Over: 231
WAS « 123 Cover: 14
Tools: Recaps

Jan 11, 2017 Score ATS Results
WAS 108 Over: 225
BOS « 117 Cover: 3.5
Tools: Recaps

Nov 9, 2016 Score ATS Results
BOS 93 Under: 211
WAS « 118 Cover: 23.5
Tools: Recaps

Jan 25, 2016 Score ATS Results
BOS « 116 Cover: 28
WAS 91 Under: 207
Tools: Recaps

Jan 16, 2016 Score ATS Results
BOS « 119 Cover: 0.5
WAS 117 Over: 236
Tools: Recaps

Nov 27, 2015 Score ATS Results
WAS 78 Under: 189
BOS « 111 Cover: 30
Tools: Recaps

Nov 6, 2015 Score ATS Results
WAS 98 Over: 216
BOS « 118 Cover: 18.5
Tools: Recaps

[StarDust Bum]

Preview: Jazz (51-31) at Warriors (67-15)
Date: May 04, 2017 10:30 PM EDT

OAKLAND, Calif. -- Utah Jazz coach Quin Snyder has a simple solution in mind for what he perceived to be his club's biggest problem in Game 1 of the Western Conference semifinals Tuesday night.

Shoot better.

"Shooting is a little bit of an equalizer," Snyder said after his team connected on just 46.3 percent of its shots from the field in the 106-94 loss. "I think both teams can shoot better."

Game 2 is Thursday night in Oakland.

It would be impossible for the Jazz to shoot worse than it did at the start of the first and fourth quarters, when they missed all 12 of their shots while getting run 9-0 and 10-0.

Make half those shots and the Jazz finish the game at a respectable 47.8 percent.

Make half those shots, even if none were 3-pointers, and the 12-point difference in the game would have been erased.

Jazz star Gordon Hayward, who was just 4 of 15 and totaled 12 points in the loss, said Golden State's defense only gets some of the credit.

"Kind of what we expected," he said of the Warriors' defensive approach. "We just didn't execute like we wanted ... and missed some shots."

Hayward averaged 23.7 points in the seven-game victory over the Los Angeles Clippers in the first round, shooting 47.7 from the field.

More important for the Jazz, they rebounded from their three losses in the LA series to shoot 52.2, 54.1 and 50.6 percent in the next game, an average improvement of 6.1 percent per game.

The Warriors walked away from the Game 1 win expecting that they hadn't seen the best of the Jazz but also fully understanding they're not a team that usually makes only seven 3-pointers in a game.

Golden State was just 7 of 29 (24.1 percent) on 3s in the opener, with Stephen Curry going 1 of 4 and Andre Iguodala 0 of 6.

"Got up 29 3s," noted Curry, happy with that number. "Hopefully, we'll make a few more next game."

One area in which the Warriors were particularly pleased in Game 1 was in turnovers.

Golden State wound up taking the same number of shots as Utah (82 apiece) despite getting only five offensive rebounds (compared with the Jazz's eight) and getting outrebounded 44-37 overall.

The reason: The Jazz lost seven more possessions than the Warriors in turnovers (14-7), with Golden State taking advantage of those mistakes to score almost one-fifth of their total points (20 of 106).

"Going into the year, that was one of the things that Steve (Kerr) talked about ... winning the possession game," said Mike Brown, the Warriors' acting coach while Kerr deals with physical problems. "We feel like we have enough scoring power that if we lock in defensively and win the possession game, we can probably outscore most of our opponents."

The seven turnovers equaled Golden State's franchise record for fewest in a playoff game.

Despite the fact that Curry sat out a relatively light Warriors practice Wednesday to rest a slightly strained left ankle, neither team reported any injury issues in the wake of Game 1.

That said, Kerr remains out indefinitely. He did not attend Game 1.

****************************

SERIES AT A GLANCE

GAME 1
Jazz at Warriors
Tue, May 2 Final 94 to 106
Recaps

GAME 2
Jazz at Warriors
Thu, May 4 - 10:30PM EDT

GAME 3
Warriors at Jazz
Sat, May 6 - 8:30PM EDT

GAME 4
Warriors at Jazz
Mon, May 8 - 9:00PM EDT

*****************************

NBA HEAD TO HEAD

Apr 10, 2017 Score ATS Results
UTH « 105 Cover: 16.5
GSW 99 Under: 204
Tools: Recaps

Dec 20, 2016 Score ATS Results
UTH 74 Under: 178
GSW « 104 Cover: 17.5
Tools: Recaps

Dec 8, 2016 Score ATS Results
GSW « 106 Under: 205
UTH 99 Cover: 4.5
Tools: Recaps

Mar 30, 2016 Score ATS Results
GSW « 103 Cover: 2.5
UTH 96 Under: 199
Tools: Recaps

Mar 9, 2016 Score ATS Results
UTH 94 Push: 209
GSW « 115 Cover: 7
Tools: Recaps

Dec 23, 2015 Score ATS Results
UTH 85 Under: 188
GSW « 103 Cover: 4
Tools: Recaps

Nov 30, 2015 Score ATS Results
GSW « 106 Over: 209
UTH 103 Cover: 4.5
Tools: Recaps

[StarDust Bum]

Overall Picks of the Day:..........APRIL'S NBA PLAYOFF TOTALS
Date W-L-T % Units Record

Totals:.......43 -34..55.84%..+ 28.00

Best Bets Daily:
Sides / Totals

Totals................21 - 17 - 2....55.26%..+ 2.30................19 - 19...50.00%..- 3.00

******************************
May's Best Bets:
Date W-L-T % Units Record

05/03/2017.......... 3-1-0.......... 75.00%......... + 950
05/02/2017.......... 4-0-0......... 100.00%........ +2000
05/01/2017.......... 3-1-0.......... 75.00%........... +950

Totals...................10 - 2...........83.33%..........+3900

Best Bets Daily:
Sides / Totals

05/03/2017............1 - 1...........50.00%...........- 0.10.............2 - 0.......100%....+ 2.00
05/02/2017............2 - 0..........100.00%.........+ 2.00.............2 - 0.......100%....+ 2.00
05/01/2017............2 - 0..........100.00 %........+ 2.00.............1 - 1.......50%.......- 0.10

Totals...................5 - 1............83.33%.........+ 3.90..............5 -1.......83.00%......+3.90

[StarDust Bum]

Thursday's Best Bet
May 4, 2017

NBA Best Bet
Boston Celtics vs. Washington Wizards – Game 3

Sportsbook.ag Odds: Washington (-5); Total set at 220

Although I was correct in saying the Houston Rockets would finish somewhere around the 97.5 points San Antonio allows on average last night, having the Spurs shoot 54.5% from the field was a little unexpected as the total crept over the number by a single point.

The 'overs' continue to be a strong play in these NBA playoffs as they've been for the better part of the year, and tonight we turn to the Celtics/Wizards series that has gone 'over' the total with ease in both games so far. Will the result be any different with the series shifting to Washington?

Odds per - Sportsbook.ag

Best Bet: Boston/Washington Under 220

Even before Game 2 of this series went to overtime, the total had already cashed 'over' tickets, as Boston put up 120+ in both games by the end and now come to Washington with a 2-0 series lead.

It's been quite the turnaround for the Celtics in these playoffs since they started 0-2 SU against Chicago in the first round, and their six straight wins is nothing to gawk at.

But winning on the road in this league is always tough, and if the Celtics want to take a 3-0 series lead tonight, they are going to have to rely on what worked for them IN Chicago during Round 1: Defense.

Now, it's not hard to argue that Washington is a much better offensive team than what the Bulls brought to the table, but the fact that Boston held Chicago to 87, 95, and 83 points in the three games played in Chicago can't be ignored.

As the old saying goes, offense may not always travel well, but defense surely can, and after John Wall has torched Boston's defense for the better part of the first two games, the Celtics have to come up with answers to at least contain him tonight.

On the Washington end of things, they've got to find an answer to contain Isaiah Thomas in some regard, as he's scored 33 and 53 points so far in this series.

The results haven't worked out in the Wizards favor so far in the run-and-gun style of games, so if they want to climb back into this series and get a W, they'll have to do it on the back of their defense as well.

In two of their three first round games at home vs Atlanta they managed to hold the Hawks to 101 or less – with the 'unders' going 2-1 – and they'd love to see a similar number on the scoreboard for Boston by the end of the night.

Again, Boston is a much better offensive team than Atlanta, similar to Washington compared to Chicago, but the sentiment remains the same, defense should show up for both sides this evening.

So while Vegas Insider's betting percentage numbers show the bulk of tonight's money on this total (85%+) coming in on the high side once again and pushing the opening line up to 220, I wouldn't be so quick to follow the herd.

Two of the three referees involved in tonight's game are a combined 36-57 O/U this year when the total on their game is 205+, meaning they'll have no problem letting these guys play and keep the foul calls to a minimum. There's going to be a game very soon in this series where they finish in the low 200's and I'm betting on it being tonight.

[StarDust Bum]

Jazz point guard George Hill out of Game 2 with toe injury
May 4, 2017

SALT LAKE CITY (AP) Utah Jazz starting point guard George Hill will not play against the Golden State Warriors in Game 2 due to left big toe soreness. The injury has lingered throughout the season and kept the ninth-year veteran from 16 regular-season games.

Hill has averaged 15.6 points, 3.6 assists and 4.1 rebounds in the playoffs.

The Jazz have been hesitant to play backup point guards Shelvin Mack, Dante Exum and Raul Neto major minutes during the playoffs, but one of the three is likely to see a significant increase. Coach Quin Snyder could also play more of a three-wing lineup including a combination of Gordon Hayward, Rodney Hood, Joe Johnson and Joe Ingles.

The Jazz were 18-15 during the regular season when Hill missed games. Utah trails the Warriors 0-1 in the second-round series.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA point guards, beware of the injuries
May 4, 2017

San Antonio's Tony Parker needs surgery to fix his left leg and won't play again until next season. Toronto's Kyle Lowry is dealing with a nasty sprained ankle. Utah's George Hill is sitting out with a bad toe.

Be careful out there, NBA starting point guards.

Playoff injuries are piling up, with no team immune.

Parker's season-ending injury - suspected when he needed to be carried off the floor on Wednesday night, confirmed by the Spurs on Thursday - will have enormous on-court effect, since it means for the first time since 2001 San Antonio will go into a playoff game without the four-time NBA champion guard in uniform.

But go down the list of every starting point guard on all eight remaining teams, and everyone is dealing with something.

Cleveland's Kyrie Irving was slowed near the end of the regular season by knee soreness, though seems fine so far in the postseason. Houston's James Harden, Washington's John Wall and Golden State's Stephen Curry have all tweaked ankles, yet escaped major harm. Boston's Isaiah Thomas is playing with a heavy heart following the tragic and sudden death of his sister, and in a remarkable show of strength his game has stayed sharp.

Imagine an NFL postseason where every starting quarterback is ailing.

This is basically the NBA equivalent.

''Just sucks to see anybody go down, no matter who it was,'' Toronto's DeMar DeRozan said Thursday, when asked about Lowry and how that will impact the Raptors going forward. ''Just one of them things. When it rains it pours at this point.''

Both of Friday's games will have big questions at the point. The Spurs will be without Parker, and the Raptors don't know how effective Lowry will be - or if he can play, period. San Antonio goes to Houston for Game 3 of their Western Conference semifinal series that's knotted 1-1, while Toronto is in desperate need of a win against Cleveland in Game 3 of their East semi matchup. The Cavaliers lead there 2-0.

Here's some of what to know going into Friday's games:

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Cavaliers at Raptors, Cleveland leads 2-0. Game 3, 7 p.m., ESPN.

NEED TO KNOW: LeBron James and the Cavaliers have won nine straight games going back to last year's playoffs. Another win on Friday would match the longest playoff winning streak of James' career. James is shooting 62 percent in the series, and his teams are 19-8 all-time in Toronto.

KEEP AN EYE ON: Cory Joseph. He might have been Toronto's bright spot in Game 2 with 22 points in 25 minutes, and he'll have to play a big role in Game 3 if the Raptors are going to make this a series.

INJURY UPDATE: Lowry (ankle) is questionable.

PRESSURE IS ON: Toronto, big-time. The Raptors are 4-4 so far in these playoffs, sputtered a bit before getting things right against Milwaukee, and know that a 3-0 deficit would make this series outcome inevitable. (It might already be that way, considering James has never wasted so much as a 2-0 series lead.) If the Raptors have a trick left to play, now's the time.

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Spurs at Rockets, series tied 1-1. Game 3, 9:30 p.m., ESPN.

NEED TO KNOW: Parker's streak of 221 consecutive playoff appearances will end. The last time he didn't appear in a Spurs playoff game was 2001 against the Lakers, when David Robinson was still starting (and a game where Warriors coach Steve Kerr and Cavs coach Tyronn Lue were both on the floor as backups when time expired). The Rockets won Game 1 by 27; the Spurs won Game 2 by 25.

KEEP AN EYE ON: Harden. He says he's fine, but he's shooting only 31 percent from the field in his last four games (9 for 30 so far in this series), and a really troubling 19 percent from 3-point range in that span. Plus, he's gotten to the line just 11 times in the two games against the Spurs - a bit low for him.

INJURY UPDATE: Parker (left quadriceps) is out.

PRESSURE IS ON: Houston. Losing Parker is huge for San Antonio, obviously. But Kawhi Leonard is still there, so is Gregg Popovich, and the Spurs aren't going to change their philosophy now. The Rockets surely sense opportunity.

[StarDust Bum]

Defending Harden is a great chess match
May 4, 2017

OKLAHOMA CITY (AP) Oklahoma City swingman Andre Roberson often was praised by his coach and teammates for playing suffocating defense on James Harden during their first-round playoff series.

Houston's MVP candidate still averaged 33.2 points against the Thunder in the five-game series.

Harden's versatility is a nightmare for top perimeter defenders in the league. Crowd him, and he goes by them. Play off him to cut off driving lanes, and he'll often raise up and shoot a 3-pointer.

Then there is Harden's knack for drawing contact and getting to the free throw line - he averaged 15 foul shots per game against the Thunder.

''I think that's one of the hardest things, and I think he's tough to guard, but ... I'm going to just hold back,'' Roberson said of guarding Harden without fouling him.

So that's how teams try to defend Harden - carefully.

The Spurs kept Harden off the line Wednesday night in Game 2 of their second-round series with the Rockets, limiting him to six attempts. Harden struggled from the floor, shooting just 3-for-17, yet he had 10 assists and seven rebounds.

When one aspect of his offensive game goes south, he always has another option. He's 6-foot-5 with strength and quickness to create mismatches. He was third in the league in made 3-pointers during the regular season. He shot and made more free throws than anyone else in the league this season, and he hit 85 percent.

Harden also led the league in assists.

''He might be the hardest player to guard in the entire league,'' Golden State coach Steve Kerr said. ''If not the hardest, he's in the top few because of the problems he presents you as a point guard. A guy with that kind of size, ability to shoot threes, gets to the rim and he's a brilliant passer.''

Warriors guard Klay Thompson said he expects Harden to put up big numbers when he plays against him.

''There's not many weaknesses,'' Thompson said. ''You don't want to get him going because it's easy to get a rhythm when you're a scorer and you get to the free-throw line. You've just got to stay disciplined and keep your arms back and just make him beat you over the top and live with it.''

That's the typical scene watching a Rockets game: defenders who prefer to be aggressive with their hands up in the air, seemingly waiting to react to Harden's next move. And when he is able to put defenders on their heels and dictate what comes next, there's a long night ahead.

Houston guard Patrick Beverley said Harden's ability to draw fouls is a skill that has been developed over time. He said Harden's awareness on the court is underrated, and getting free-throw opportunities is a part of it.

''You know how a player is playing you,'' he said. ''It's different with each team. He does a great job of getting to the line. That all comes from IQ and feel for the game. He has a great feel for the game.''

Harden is a four-time All-Star, but this season his mastery of Mike D'Antoni's free-flowing offensive system has elevated his offensive game even more. It's the same system that helped Steve Nash win two MVP awards with the Phoenix Suns.

Spurs coach Gregg Popovich said Harden's confidence is at an all-time high.

''He's always been a heck of a player, as we know from all the way back in OKC days,'' Popovich said, ''But that confidence has really propelled him and I think he's added to his game the understanding that he can make a whole lot of people better. So, he's scoring and doing that at the same time. That's hard for a lot of players to do.''

Many teams try to take away at least one aspect of Harden's game when guarding him. Opponents have tried to double-team him, but the Rockets have surrounded him with shooters. In Game 1 against San Antonio, Houston made 22 3-pointers in a 126-99 win.

Spurs forward Kawhi Leonard, the two-time reigning defensive player of the year, has his hands full.

''My basic approach is to try not to make anything easy for him,'' Leonard said. ''Try to guard him, not foul him and especially obstruct him as best I can.''

Harden's 20 points in Game 1 against the Spurs were well below his average, but he still had 14 assists.

''Make him take tough shots,'' Spurs guard Manu Ginobili said. ''If he starts making protected step-backs or stuff like that, you can't do much about it. You just can't give him everything. Three-point, paint, fouls - that's when he's at his best. Or when he backs up and he starts passing and skipping the ball to the corner and getting everybody else shooting 3s is when their game flourishes.''

Harden had the edge in Game 1. The Spurs managed to contain him in Game 2. Games 3, 4, 5 - and maybe even 6 and 7 - in this chess match should be entertaining.

[StarDust Bum]

Fade this Favorite
May 4, 2017

We hope you had the opportunity to read our playoff article before the post-season began and how efficiency ratings helped predict the eventual NBA Champions. In short, teams that win NBA Championships, historically must rank in the top 11 of the league in both offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency ratings in the regular season. Teams that have accomplished this feat have won the past eight titles.

So now that the playoffs are underway and even the casual fans are paying attention, is there any value on making a futures wager? The clear choice right now by many is the 6-0 Cleveland Cavaliers who are cruising through the East right now. You can bet the Cavs at 5/2 to win in all in 2017 but we won't bite!

The reasons are obvious in our opinion as the Cavs are fool's gold and we won't be suckered into this proposition. We were not impressed with Cleveland's first round series win over a subpar Pacers team that was just 42-40 SU on the regular season.

Against the Pacers, the Cavs went 4-0 and had a positive overall point differential of plus +6.5 PPG. In comparison that number is drastically lower than the Warriors +18 PPG differential over a similar team to Indiana in Portland.

Cleveland has dominated Toronto in the first two games of their second round series but let's face it, the Raptors looked horrible in a few games against the Bucks in the first round and the Cavs have dominated them the past two years. Not to mention, the Raptors limped into the post-season with a 10-10 SU record and really aren't playing well right now. In fact, we'll even go as far to say we expect the Cavs to sweep this series and we still won't wager on them to win it all in 2017.

Cleveland was bad defensively all season long and they haven't been any better in the playoffs. During the regular season the Cavs ranked 21st in (DEFF) defensive efficiency ratings allowing 1.104 points per possession.

In comparison, last year when they won a Championship they ranked 10th and allowed just 1.045PPP. Thus far in the playoffs, in four games against Indiana (15th in the NBA in offensive efficiency so average) and two games against Toronto (6th OEFF) they are allowing 1.111 points per possession which is WORSE than their regular season average! So they can say they are going to 'turn it on' in the post-season but in reality that hasn't happened.

So when it comes to the Finals, when they have to play the best offensive team (Warriors) in the league, they won't be able to just 'flip the switch' on the defensive end of the court. Golden State plays on both ends of the floor and will eventually be the Champions in 2017. Another indicator here is the price on this wager.

Prior to the start of the playoffs the Cavaliers were 5/2 to win it all and that number hasn't moved even after a 6-0 start. It would be easy to get caught up in all the hype surrounding the Cavaliers and LeBron but don't get fooled into making that futures bet. My money is on the Golden State Warriors!

Best of luck with all your wagers moving forward in the Playoffs!

[StarDust Bum]

Overall Picks of the Day:..........APRIL'S NBA PLAYOFF TOTALS
Date W-L-T % Units Record

Totals:.......43 -34..55.84%..+ 28.00

Best Bets Daily:
Sides / Totals

Totals................21 - 17 - 2....55.26%..+ 2.30................19 - 19...50.00%..- 3.00

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May's Best Bets:
Date W-L-T % Units Record

05/03/2017.......... 3-1-0.......... 75.00%......... + 950
05/02/2017.......... 4-0-0......... 100.00%........ +2000
05/01/2017.......... 3-1-0.......... 75.00%........... +950

Totals...................10 - 2...........83.33%..........+3900

Best Bets Daily:
Sides / Totals

05/03/2017............1 - 1...........50.00%...........- 0.10.............2 - 0.......100%....+ 2.00
05/02/2017............2 - 0..........100.00%.........+ 2.00.............2 - 0.......100%....+ 2.00
05/01/2017............2 - 0..........100.00 %........+ 2.00.............1 - 1.......50%.......- 0.10

Totals...................5 - 1............83.33%.........+ 3.90..............5 -1.......83.00%......+3.90


THURSDAY, MAY 4

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

BOS at WAS 08:00 PM

BOS +5.0

O 217.0

UTA at GS 10:30 PM

GS -13.5

U 205.5

[StarDust Bum]

NBA roundup: Wizards rout Celtics in chippy affair
May 5, 2017

WASHINGTON -- John Wall scored 24 points and the Washington Wizards took control with a 22-0 run in the first quarter for a 116-89 victory over the Boston Celtics on Thursday night in Game 3 of their Eastern Conference semifinal series.

Washington trails 2-1 in the contentious best-of-seven series after dropping two road games in Boston. The latest charged matchup included eight technical fouls and the Wizards' Kelly Oubre Jr. getting ejected in the first half for a Flagrant 2 foul.

Washington's Brandon Jennings and the Celtics' Terry Rozier were ejected in the fourth quarter after each received two technical fouls. Boston coach Brad Stevens and Wizards coach Scott Brooks were hit with technical fouls.

Isaiah Thomas scored 53 points in the Celtics' 129-119 overtime victory Tuesday, but was held to 13 points on 3-of-8 shooting in Game 3.

Warriors 115, Jazz 104

OAKLAND, Calif. -- Draymond Green led an early spurt with a pair of 3-pointers, propelling Golden State to victory over Utah in their Western Conference semifinal series.

Green (21), Kevin Durant (25) and Stephen Curry (23) all topped 20 points for the Warriors, who take a 2-0 lead in the best-of-seven series to Salt Lake City for Games 3 and 4 on Saturday and Monday. The Jazz's Gordon Hayward, held to 12 points Tuesday in a 106-94 loss in Game 1, led all scorers with 33 points Thursday.

The Warriors survived a scare early in the fourth quarter when Green fell to the court while trying an awkward driving shot. He quickly regained his feet but grabbed at his left knee as he dropped back to the court. Green was able to walk to the locker room and ultimately returned to the game.

[StarDust Bum]

Friday’s six-pack

Odds to win the Pac-12 football title this coming fall:
even: USC

5-2: Washington

6-1: Stanford

7-1: Oregon, UCLA

12-1: Colorado

13-1: Utah, Washington State

20-1: Arizona State

35-1: Arizona

50-1: Oregon State

60-1: California

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Friday’s List of 13: Random stuff with weekend here……….

13) May 24 is the deadline for kids to withdraw from the NBA Draft; Purdue is holding its breath that Caleb Swanigan will come back to West Lafayette next season- that would make the Boilers a top-10 preseason team.

Apparently, Swanigan hasn’t yet been assured that he’ll be a first round pick.

12) Tony Parker has a ruptured left quadriceps tendon and will miss the remainder of the playoffs, which makes life much harder for the Spurs in their series with Houston.

11) Washington Wizards have outscored Boston 119-70 in first quarter of their games in this playoff series, but Celtics still won two of the three games- home side won all three.

10) Mark William Calaway, better known as the Undertaker on WWE broadcasts, had hip replacement surgery right after Wrestlemania- he is 52 years old.

9) There is a horse with only one eye running in the Kentucky Derby Saturday- Patch.

8) In 2009, the San Diego Padres picked Donovan Tate with the #1 overall pick; he never got above Class A ball, hit .226 in his career and now, at age 26, will walk on as a QB at the U of Arizona- he was at one time also a top football recruit.

He can walk on because the Padres are paying for his education.

7) Big 14 Conference is having its conference tournament in Madison Square Garden next winter, a week earlier than normal; because of that, they’ll play some conference games in December, which they’ve never done before.

6) Mt St Mary’s won the NEC basketball tourney twice in last four years; they won’t win it next year- five of their returning players have already transferred, as higher-level programs increase their poaching of low major and mid-major teams.

5) Atlanta Hawks have 11 draft picks over the next three years, so they figure to improve; they’re not firing their GM after all, just giving him a different title, probably a small demotion/reduction of duties.

4) Leonard Hamilton (Florida St) and Richard Pitino (Minnesota) got contract extensions this week, after their successful seasons.

3) Wizards 116, Celtics 89— Home side is now 3-0 in this series; there was an incident in the first half between Kelly Oubre and Kelly Olynyk— no one was KO’d in the scuffle.

Lot of Boston/Washington-area hostility in the sports world this week.

2) An NBA agent was fired for running up a $42,000 Uber tab on a player’s credit card, charges which were not authorized by the player, who isn’t a client of that agent.

1— If the baseball playoffs started today (they don’t), they would look like this:

AL: Bronx/Cleveland or CWS/Houston. Wild Cards: Orioles; then either BoSox or Central #2
NL: Washington/Cubs/Colorado. Wild Cards: Arizona/Dodgers