The Bum's National Basketball League Apri's Picks/Trends/News Thru the Playoffs !!

[StarDust Bum]

5/17 - YESTERDAY'S RESULTS: 2 - 0
OVERALL: 63 - 67

WEDNESDAY, MAY 18

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

OKC at GS 09:00 PM

OKC +8.5

U 223.5

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

Westgate Superbook's odds on random football games this coming fall..........

-- Week 8: Packers (-3.5) @ Atlanta

-- Week 9: Broncos @ Oakland (-1.5)

-- Week 10: Seahawks @ New England (-3.5)

-- Week 11: Bears @ NJ Giants (-4)

-- Week 12: Vikings (-1) @ Detroit

-- Week 13: Colts @ NJ Jets (-2.5)

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Armadillo: Thursday's List of 13: Doing some thinking out loud......

13) Warriors 118, Thunder 91-- No one on Oklahoma City had more than 9 points, other than Durant/Westbrook. They need a third double figure scorer to compete.

12) Knicks are apparently going to name Jeff Hornacek head coach; good coach, good basketball guy, but kind of feel about him the same way I felt when the Mets hired Art Howe as manager-- not very New York-ish. Sometimes that matters.

11) Chicago White Sox turned their second triple play of the season last night; they are first team since '07 Phillies to turn two triple plays in same season.

10) A's 8, Rangers 1-- Khris Davis has nine HRs, 20 RBI in first 18 days of May.

9) NBA playoff favorites of 8+ points are 19-6 vs spread this season.

8) Why is the price of gasoline 45 cents a gallon cheaper in New Jersey than here in New York? Is Crhis Christie that good a governor that his constituents don't get ripped off like we do? By the way, in New Jersey they put the gas in your car for you.

7) NBA Summer League will be July 8-18 at UNLV and on TV every day on NBA TV. Solid entertainment; I'll be out there for the AAU tournaments later in the month.

6) Illinois got good news: big man Mike Thorne got a sixth year of eligibility from the NCAA, very important for John Groce's team.

5) More transfers, as number approaches 600 this year (there are 351 D-I teams):
-- Anthony Livingston goes from Arkansas State to Texas Tech.
-- Kendall Stephens goes from Purdue to Nevada

4) This will be the sixth NFL season for 49er QB Blaine Gabbert, who will have his sxith different head coach, sixth offensive coordinator, sixth QB coach. Oy.

3) Why would the Ravens intentionally break the NFL rule about not using full pads during rookie minicamps? Sounds like they did just that.

2) Minnesota Twins are 4-2 against the Cleveland Indians, 0-15 against the rest of the AL Central. No bueno. Minnesota is 5-12 in games where the winning run scores from the 7th inning on.

1) Werid story about Robert Griffin III and his relationship with his coaches in Washington; if that story is remotely true, Daniel Snyder is the worst owner in the NFL and the Browns may have made a colossal mistake acquiring RGIII, who appears to be a complete jerk if you believe the article, which is excerpted up above.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA

Thursday, May 19

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Thursday's NBA Conference Finals betting preview and odds: Raptors at Cavaliers
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LeBron James was unstoppable in Game 1, putting up 24 points on 11-of-13 shooting as the Cavs cruised to an easy win and a 19.5-point cover.

Toronto Raptors at Cleveland Cavaliers (-10.5, 201.5)

Cavaliers lead series 1-0

The Cleveland Cavaliers dismantled the Toronto Raptors in the opening game of the Eastern Conference finals and attempt to remain unbeaten in the postseason when they host Thursday's Game 2. Cleveland is 9-0 in the playoffs and its latest superb performance was a 115-84 trouncing of Toronto in Game 1.

The 31-point margin of victory was the largest in Cavaliers' postseason history and the Raptors tried to put on brave faces after the annihilation. "It's the first to four, and it's one game," Toronto small forward DeMarre Carroll told reporters. "It doesn't matter if you lose by two or you lose by 30. It's only one game." The Raptors were dominated on the boards 45-23 without center Jonas Valanciunas (ankle) - who is likely to miss Game 2 as well - and were powerless to defend Cleveland star LeBron James, who scored 24 points on 11-of-13 shooting and is highly motivated to keep the wins coming. "We have a goal, and our goal was not nine wins," James told reporters. "It's just not my focus. I've won nine games in the postseason before, won 14 games in the postseason before. "It's not my goal, and as the leader of this team, I'm going to continue to make sure that these guys understand what our goal is."

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN

LINE HISTORY: Following their dominant performance in Game 1, the Cavs opened as 12-point favorites over the Raptors for Game 2. As of Wednesday evening, the line has not moved off the lofty opening number. The total hit the board at 196 but was raised a full two points Wednesday morning and that is where it currently sits. Check out the complete line history here.

ABOUT THE RAPTORS (64-33, 50-47 ATS, 48-48-1 O/U): Point guard Kyle Lowry appeared to be on his game with outings of 36 and 35 to close the Miami series but he was disjointed in Game 1 with just eight points on 4-of-14 shooting - including missing all seven 3-point attempts. Toronto won two of the three regular-season meetings and believes it can compete with Cleveland but Game 1 displayed the opposite as the Raptors were largely uncompetitive. "It's a different series than last series," Toronto coach Dwane Casey told reporters. "We've got to get our minds adjusted and bodies adjusted. The speed of the game is another issue, a quicker pace, a quicker foot speed for this team versus Miami and Indiana, so we've got to make that adjustment."

ABOUT THE CAVALIERS (66-25, 43-45-3 ATS, 46-45 O/U): Point guard Kyrie Irving is meshing well with James and badly outplayed Lowry with 27 points on 11-of-17 shooting in the opener. Irving and James haven't always seen eye-to-eye over their two seasons together but James said he is seeing the growth and maturity needed from Irving. "He's grown every single day, every single week, month and over the course of these last two years or year-plus, becoming a leader and becoming a staple of our team," James told reporters. "We all knew how talented the kid was and how talented he is still today, but his growth and what he demands out of all of us, as the point guard, as one of the leaders of the team, that's what's the best part about it."

TRENDS:

* Raptors are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games.
* Cavaliers are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
* Over is 24-5 in Raptors last 29 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points.
* Over is 8-2 in Cavaliers last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
* Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.

CONSENSUS: The Cavaliers are picking up 53 percent of the Consensus wagers as of Wednesday evening. It seems as though the public doesn't really like the lofty 12-point spread as you'd expect the percentage to be much higher for a very public team coming off a monster win. The Over is picking up 72 percent of the total wagers - even after the line move up to 196.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA
Long Sheet

Thursday, May 19

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TORONTO (64 - 33) at CLEVELAND (66 - 25) - 5/19/2016, 8:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TORONTO is 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) in all playoff games over the last 3 seasons.
TORONTO is 176-220 ATS (-66.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
TORONTO is 49-64 ATS (-21.4 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 33-17 ATS (+14.3 Units) as a road underdog of 12.5 to 18 points since 1996.
TORONTO is 33-17 ATS (+14.3 Units) as a road underdog of 12.5 or more points since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 6-5 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
CLEVELAND is 6-5 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
6 of 11 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Thursday, May 19

Toronto-Cleveland (C 1-0)
Cavaliers won five of last seven games with Toronto; five of last six tilts in series went over total. Raptors are playing third game in five days; in Game 1 they got outrebounded 45-23, were down 22 at half, they didn't compete real hard- they'll show up better here. Cavaliers are 9-0 SU in playoffs, 6-3 vs spread (over 5-4). Toronto is 1-4 in its last five road games (under 3-2). James was 11-13 from floor in Tuesday's game. NBA playoff favorites of 8+ points are 19-6 vs spread this season.

Playoff tally: Favorites vs spread: 26-18, Over: 13-31
Second round: Favorites: 13-8, over: 12-9
Conference final: Favorites: 2-1, over: 1-2




NBA

Thursday, May 19

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Trend Report
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8:30 PM
TORONTO vs. CLEVELAND
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toronto's last 6 games when playing Cleveland
Toronto is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Cleveland
Cleveland is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Toronto
Cleveland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

[StarDust Bum]

NBA
Dunkel

Thursday, May 19


Toronto @ Cleveland

Game 707-708
May 19, 2016 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Toronto
121.776
Cleveland
130.305
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cleveland
by 8 1/2
202
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cleveland
by 12 1/2
198
Dunkel Pick:
Toronto
(+12 1/2); Over

[StarDust Bum]

Game 2 - Raptors at Cavaliers
May 18, 2016

The series opener of the Eastern Conference Finals between Cleveland and Toronto was an expected blowout as the Cavaliers ripped the Raptors, 115-84 to easily cash as 11-point favorites. In spite of Toronto jumping out to an early 7-0 lead and hanging around for the entire first quarter, the Raptors were wiped away by LeBron James and the Cavaliers in the second quarter, 33-16 to trail by 22 points at halftime. Has Cleveland paved the way for a perfect 12-0 record on the way to the NBA Finals or can Toronto show some fight in Game 2 on Thursday?

The Cavaliers didn’t take their first lead in Game 1 until five minutes remaining in the opening quarter at 18-17, while the Raptors held their final advantage at 28-27 before Cleveland ripped off 15 consecutive points. Tyronn Lue’s club took a 66-44 halftime lead, the third straight home game that the Cavaliers have headed into the intermission with an advantage of at least 10 points. Cleveland torched Atlanta in the previous round by knocking down an incredible 77 three-pointers (average of 19.25 per game), but the Cavaliers hit only seven shots from downtown in 20 attempts in Game 1.

James put together one of his most efficient postseason games in his career, connecting on 11-of-13 shots from the floor for 24 points. Kyrie Irving paced Cleveland with 27 points, while Kevin Love scored in double-figures for the ninth straight playoff game with 19 points. No other Cavaliers posted double-digit scoring, but Cleveland’s bench compiled 41 points as the team shot 55% from the floor.

Toronto’s DeMar DeRozan started on fire in Game 1 by hitting his first five field goal attempts, but converted on 4-of-17 attempts the rest of the way for a team-high 18 points. DeRozan’s backcourt mate Kyle Lowry failed to knock down a three-pointer in seven tries, while finishing 4-of-14 from the floor as the Raptors’ guard was held to below 36% for the 12th time in 15 playoff games. Lowry shot 38% from three-point range during the regular season, but his numbers have dipped from downtown to 26% in the postseason (26-of-99), which includes his half-court heave against the Heat at the end of regulation in the conference semifinals opener.

The Raptors have responded well off a loss in the playoffs by posting a 6-0 SU and 3-3 ATS record, although all these games in this situation came with Toronto in the favorite role. Dwane Casey’s squad has improved by an average of +11.6 points per game following a loss this postseason, meaning the Raptors will likely score in the mid-90’s if this trend holds true. However, since winning Game 3 at Indiana in the opening round, Toronto owns a 1-5 SU/ATS record in the last six road playoff contests with four of the losses coming by 12 points or more.

The big question going into Game 2 is if Cleveland can rout Toronto once again and easily cover as a double-digit favorite. Going back to the 2013 playoffs, teams off a victory of 29 points or more own a 6-6 SU and 4-8 ATS record, which includes a 2-2 SU/ATS mark in the 2016 postseason. Most recently, the Spurs pounded the Thunder by 32 points to tip off the second round, but OKC rebounded with a one-point victory as seven-point underdogs in Game 2. Dallas responded in the first round following a humiliating 108-70 loss at Oklahoma City to shock the Thunder in Game 2 as 14-point ‘dogs, 85-84.

NBA PLAYOFFS - TEAMS OFF 29-POINT OR MORE WINS

Team Blowout Win Following Game SU/ATS Results

Cleveland - 2016 Cavaliers 115 vs. Raptors 84 - -

Miami - 2016 Heat 123 vs. Hornets 91 Heat 115 vs. Hornets 103 Win-Win

San Antonio - 2016 Spurs 106 vs. Grizzlies 74 Spurs 94 vs. Grizzles 68 Win-Win

Oklahoma City - 2016 Thunder 108 vs. Mavericks 70 Thunder 84 vs. Mavericks 85 Loss-Loss

San Antonio - 2016 Spurs 124 vs. Thunder 92 Spurs 97 vs. Thunder 98 Loss-Loss

Golden State - 2015 Warriors 115 at Rockets 80 Warriors 115 at Rockets 128 Loss-Loss

L.A. Clippers - 2015 Clippers 128 vs. Rockets 95 Clippers 103 at Rockets 124 Loss-Loss

San Antonio - 2014 Spurs 112 vs. Thunder 77 Spurs 97 at Thunder 106 Loss-Loss

L.A. Clippers - 2014 Clippers 128 vs. Warriors 138 Clippers 98 at Warriors 96 Win-Loss

San Antonio - 2013 Spurs 113 vs. Heat 77 Spurs 103 vs. Heat 109 Loss-Loss

Miami - 2013 Heat 115 vs. Bulls 78 Heat 104 vs. Bulls 94 Win-Win

Oklahoma City - 2013 Thunder 120 vs. Rockets 91 Thunder 105 vs. Rockets 102 Win-Loss

San Antonio - 2013 Spurs 120 at Lakers 89 Spurs 103 at Lakers 82 Win-Win

A few things to note from the above table regarding this system. First, the scoring output for winning teams decreased by an average of 17.5 points per game, including three clubs this postseason that went from triple-digits to double-digits from Game 1 to Game 2. Secondly, two of the blowouts by San Antonio in 2016 against Memphis and 2013 against the Lakers came against teams that were decimated by injuries. This season’s Grizzlies were without point guard Mike Conley and center Marc Gasol, while the 2013 Lakers were missing Kobe Bryant after he tore his Achilles tendon in the final week of the regular season.

I presented these numbers to VegasInsider.com NBA expert Chris David and he delved into the numbers and found other angles that could have you leaning to Toronto in a couple other bets for Game 2.

He explained, “Based on the blowout trends that we’ve seen recently in the NBA playoffs, this should be a very tight game and I’m buying the Raptors not only for the game but I’m going to double and triple-up with first quarter and first half wagers. After a 30-point loss in a competitive healthy series in the NBA playoffs, we’ve seen those teams rebound in a very strong way from the get-go.”

“The loser has led after the first quarter in six of the next 10 games and twice they were tied. In the two instances they were trailing, the margins were only by one and three. For halftime bettors, the team that was blown out managed to hold leads in five of the next 10 games at the break with one tie and the four margins (3, 2, 3, 12) were tighter than expected.”

David notes, “The Raptors are catching five and eight points in the first quarter and first half respectively for Game 2 and both those are numbers are inflated. While I wouldn’t advise you to take Toronto to win outright on Thursday as a 7/1 underdog, I believe the Raptors (+400) on the money-line in the first half presents great value.”

Shifting to the totals perspective, where the Raptors have cashed four consecutive ‘overs’ since a 9-2 start to the ‘under’ in the postseason. David provides his view on the total, “Depending when you bet the total on Game 1, you could’ve hit the ‘over’ or the ‘under’ with the game opening as high as 202 and closing at 198. To be fair the ‘over’ was the right side and it would’ve connected if it wasn’t for a 37-point fourth quarter. After Tuesday’s result, the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook opened Game 2 with a total of 196 and that’s been pushed up to 198.”

Cleveland has eclipsed the 100-point mark in all nine victories in the playoffs, resulting in five ‘overs.’ At home, the Cavaliers have given up at least 100 points only once in five tries, coming back in the playoff opener against the Pistons in which Detroit put up 101 points.

David gives his spin on Cleveland’s output, “The offensive production for the Cavaliers could have you leaning to the ‘over’ again in Game 2 and you can certainly make a strong argument for that lean. However, you could argue for the ‘under’ as well based on what we’ve seen from Toronto after a loss. The Raptors haven’t dropped back-to-back games in this year’s postseason and that perfect mark (6-0) is directly attributed to their defense, which has only surrendered 90.3 PPG in these situations. While Cleveland has been nothing short of a juggernaut in the playoffs, a letdown shouldn’t come as a surprise and I’d lean strongly to its team total ‘under’ (105) on Wednesday.”

After the Cavaliers closed as 11-point favorites in Game 1, oddsmakers pushed Cleveland to a 12-point favorite for Thursday’s Game 2. Don’t be surprised if that game closes at 12 ½ with public money as the Cavaliers have covered four of five games at Quicken Loans Arena in the playoffs. Thursday’s contest tips off at 8:35 PM EST and can be seen on ESPN.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA MONEYLINE

NBA > (707) TORONTO@ (708) CLEVELAND | 2016-05-19 20:35:00 - 2016-05-19 20:35:00
Play ON CLEVELAND using money line in All games when leading in a playoff series
The record is 13 Wins and 1 Losses for the last two seasons (+12.65 units)

NBA > (707) TORONTO@ (708) CLEVELAND | 2016-05-19 20:35:00 - 2016-05-19 20:35:00
Play ON CLEVELAND using money line in All games in all playoff games
The record is 23 Wins and 6 Losses for the last two seasons (+18.25 units)

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NBA TOTALS

NBA > (707) TORONTO@ (708) CLEVELAND | 2016-05-19 20:35:00 - 2016-05-19 20:35:00
Play OVER TORONTO on the totalin Road games after allowing 105 points or more
The record is 32 Overs and 12 Unders for the last three seasons (+18.8 units)

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TOP POWER LINES

NBA > (707) TORONTO @ (708) CLEVELAND | 2016-05-19 20:35:00 - 2016-05-19 20:35:00
Line: CLEVELAND-12.5 BTB PowerLine: CLEVELAND-13
Edge On: CLEVELAND (0.5)

[StarDust Bum]

5/18 - YESTERDAY'S RESULTS: 1 - 1
OVERALL : 64 -68

THURSDAY, MAY 19

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

TOR at CLE 08:30 PM

TOR +11.5

U 199.0

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Saturday's six-pack

Golden Nugget sportsbook's college football over/unders for this coming fall..........

-- Houston Cougars 9, under -$150

-- Notre Dame Fighting Irish 9, under -$125

-- Ohio State Buckeyes, 8.5, over -$115

-- Tennessee Volunteers, 10

-- Baylor Bears 9, under -$125

-- Michigan State Spartans 8.5, under -$130

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Armadillo: Saturday's List of 13: College football knowledge, and DDLohaus handicaps the Preakness Stakes........

The Kentucky Derby is behind us and the race really ended as we had expected. Nyquist was all he was said to be; looked great winning the race in a very solid time. The top four favorites covered the top four spots with Exaggerator again the runner up. We couldn't collect on our big bets as Mohaymen could only manage fourth. We did hit the saver exacta but not much joy there....

The Preakness comes quickly and welcomes a host of newcomers trying to not only beat the Derby winner, but launch themselves into the summer spotlight as the racing season continues to crank up. As I sit here in Delaware, the weather forecast for Saturday is BAD; 90% chance of rain all morning into the afternoon and COLD with a high of 57 degrees. The weather forecast certainly requires a bit of restraint in wagering but also introduces a whole other set of variables when handicapping the race.

Nyquist is still the horse to beat. As I've said before, he has done nothing wrong and look really good in the Derby. I am convinced that Exaggerator is as honest as they come and he keeps Nyquist honest. If Nyquist doesn't show up, Exaggerator will turn the tables. These two (Nyquist and Exaggerator) are clear standouts in the 3yr old category so far this year; I just don't see a very deep crop of 3yr olds (yet). The problem is that they are both very short odds AND the weather conditions are sure to make conditions anything but ideal. Talent alone, these two run 1-2 but I challenge anyone to say, for sure, how they will respond to adverse conditions on Saturday.

As is customary, I will throw out a wildcard for you to consider. This runner may be worth a small wager and given the expected weather and track conditions is not a complete reach. Abiding Star is on a bit of a hot streak coming into the Preakness. He has won five in a row and has had success over wet tracks. He will likely be close to the front if not on the lead and may not look back. Distance is a concern and he may be a notch below many in here but horses do get brave sometimes and if he finds himself in front turning for home, the track is heavy and tiring, and the others don't fire their best he may shock at a big price and he would be a nice play underneath the two favorites.

Selections:
Nyquist: Deserving favorite and a notch better than the rest (just cant bet a 3/5 in adverse conditions)
Exaggerator: Honest, hard knocker capable of winning if top one doesn't fire his best (just cant bet a horse that has lost 4 times to top one and short odds)
Abiding Star: Longshot being tested for class and distance but may get brave on the front end and has handled off tracks.

The Bets:
$5WPS Abiding Star
$5EXBX Abiding Star/Nyquist/Exaggerator
$2TRIBX Abiding Star/Nyquist/Exagerator

Total Bets: $57.00

College football knowledge..........
13) LSU's new defensive coordinator last worked at Wisconsin; Tigers, who have 18 starters back, open the season Sept 3 against the Badgers at Lambeau Field.

12) USC plays Alabama, Stanford, Utah in September, none of them at home.

11) Urban Meyer has a 154-27 record, 50-4 at Ohio State; his defensvie coordinator this year is former Rutgers/Bucs coach Greg Schiano.

10) Texas A&M recruited only two of the top 20 recruits from the Lone Star State this year- they're on their fourth offensive coordinator in the last five years. Aggies are 16-10 overall the last two years, 17-15 in conference play the last four years.

9) Contrast that to Oklahoma State, which is 27-12 the last three years; their OC is in his fourth season in Stillwater, their DC is in his sixth season. Continuity helps.

8) UCLA's freshman kicker JJ Molson is the grandson of Montreal Canadiens' owner, beer magnate Geoff Molson; wonder if they'll be selling Molson beer at the Rose Bowl this year. Having a freshman kicker can drive you to drink.

7) Michigan State is 36-5 the last three years, but lost top two WRs and their QB who started for three years. Spartans play Notre Dame/Wisconsin on back/back early on in season. Mark D'Antonio is 7-2 against rival Michigan.

6) Tennessee hasn't won SEC East since 2007; they haven't won the SEC since '98, the year after Peyton Manning left. Vols' over/under win total in Las Vegas this year is 10, so with 18 starters back, Butch Davis' team has high expectations.

5) Mack Brown was 25-14 his last three years at Texas; Charlie Strong is 11-14 his first two years in Austin. Longhorns gave up 30.3 ppg last year.

4) Florida State is 49-6 the last four years; only one of their four September games is at home. RB Dalvin Cook won SEC rushing title by 164 yards LY.

3) Oregon went 9-4 LY, after going 48-5 the four years before that; they lost their bowl game after leading 31-0 at the half. Once again, the Ducks' QB will be a transfer from a I-AA school, this time Dakota Prukop from Montana State.

2) Ole Miss has its first-ever two-game winning streak over Alabama, which is hard to believe. Rebels play Florida State, Alabama and Georgia, all in September. Oy.

1) Michigan is 2-14 against Ohio State/Michigan State the last eight years.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA home underdogs have big betting bite in the conference finals

The Raptors are getting five points at home versus Cleveland while OKC is set at +2.5 hosting Golden State this weekend.

This weekend’s two NBA conference finals games – Saturday and Sunday - will be just the 32nd and 33rd time a team has been listed as a home underdog in a conference championship series since the 1991-92 season.

The Toronto Raptors, down 0-2 to the Cleveland Cavaliers in the Eastern Conference finals, are 5-point home pups hosting LeBron James and the Cavs Saturday while the Oklahoma City Thunder are getting 2.5 points from oddsmakers against the visiting Golden State Warriors in Game 3 of the West finals, with that series knotted at one game apiece.

Looking back over those previous 31 instances in which the home side was the betting underdog in that 24-year span, those host clubs posted an 18-12-1 ATS record (17-14 SU), covering the spread 60 percent of the time.

Crunching those conference finals spreads down to fit this weekend’s lines, and home underdogs of +2.5 and higher are 10-5-0 ATS, a bankroll building 67 percent winner against the NBA pointspreads since 1991-92. Those particular home pups finished 9-6 SU in those contests.

Those 15 NBA conference final home dogs of +2.5 or more scored an average of 93.8 points against an average of 92.3 from the road favorite, facing an average spread of +4.5 points. Toronto falls into even rarer company at +5, as one of just six teams to get five or more points from the books on their home court in the conference finals in the past 24 years. Those previous five qualifying teams posted a 3-2 ATS mark while going 2-3 SU.

The biggest home dog in that stretch were the 1997-98 Los Angeles Lakers +8 versus the Utah Jazz, who won 109-98 in Game 3 of the Western Conference finals. Utah would go on to sweep L.A. in four straight games.

Toronto hadn't been a home underdog in the playoffs before Game 3 and went a solid 5-1 ATS getting the points inside the Air Canada Centre during the regular season. Cleveland, on the other hand, has been a betting favorite in all 10 of its postseason games this year, with a 2-2 ATS record as road chalk. The Cavaliers were just 14-21-2 ATS as road favorites during the regular season.

In the Western side of the bracket, Oklahoma City has been a home pup only once in these playoff – losing 100-95 as a +2.5 underdog vs. San Antonio in Game 3 of the Western semifinals. The Thunder finished 0-1-1 ATS as home dogs in the regular season. Golden State is 2-2 ATS as a road fave this postseason and was 22-17-2 ATS as a road favorite during the regular season.

Overall, regardless of round, home underdogs are 174-163-8 ATS (51.6%) in the NBA Playoffs since 1991-92, with Eastern home dogs going 85-94-5 (47%) and West home pups putting up an 89-69-3 ATS count (56%). Those games have a 153-189-3 Over/Under record (55% Under).

[StarDust Bum]

NBA

Saturday, May 21

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Saturday's NBA Conference Finals betting preview and odds: Cavaliers at Raptors
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The Cavaliers have been bigger, stronger, faster and better than the Raptors in the first two games of the Eastern Conference final.

Cleveland Cavaliers at Toronto Raptors (+5.5, 198.5)

Cavaliers lead series 2-0

The Cleveland Cavaliers have dominated the first two games of the Eastern Conference finals and look to record their 11th straight victory this postseason when they visit the Toronto Raptors on Saturday. Cleveland won the first two games of the series by an average of 25 points to become the sixth team in NBA history to start the postseason with 10 or more victories.

The San Antonio Spurs (12 in 2012) and Los Angeles Lakers (11 in both 1989 and 2001) are the only teams to begin the playoffs with more consecutive wins than the red-hot Cavaliers. "I don't think it feels like a streak," James told reporters. "It feels like we won one game, we won the next game. We've taken one step at a time. We've tried to take care of business." The Raptors are returning home but there are few observers expecting them to make it a series after the way they were outclassed in Cleveland. "I don't think our guys have quit. I refuse to believe that," Toronto coach Dwane Casey said after Game 2. "We've won 56 (regular-season) games. We've been down before. We've had some rough patches and we've bounced back. I think this is the first time in the playoffs we've lost two games in a row, so this team will bounce back. I believe in them and they've got to believe in themselves, and I think they do."

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN

LINE HISTORY: The Cavaliers destroyed the Raptors in the first two games of the Eastern Conference final, and heading up to Canada for Game 3 the books opened with the Cavs as 5.5-point road favorites. The line did drop down to Raptors +5 on Friday morning but it appears, at the time of publication of this preview, that the line is beginning to move back to 5.5 at most books. The total opened at 197.5 and by Friday morning the books moved it up a full point to 198.5. Check out the complete line history here.

ABOUT THE CAVALIERS (67-25, 44-45-3 ATS, 46-46 O/U): James was superb with 23 points, 11 rebounds and 11 assists in Game 2 for his 15th career playoff triple-double and he also moved into fourth place on the all-time playoffs scoring list with 5,255 points, passing Shaquille O'Neal (5,250). James (23.5 average on 18-of-26 shooting) and point guard Kyrie Irving (26.5 on 23-of-39 shooting) have torched the Raptors at will as Cleveland averaged 111.5 points over the first two games. Power forward Kevin Love is averaging just 16.5 points and 4.5 rebounds after posting double-doubles in each of the Cavaliers' first eight postseason games.

ABOUT THE RAPTORS (64-34, 50-48 ATS, 48-49-1 O/U): Point guard Kyle Lowry averaged just nine points in the first two games of the series and is 8-of-28 shooting, including 1-of-15 from 3-point range. He had seemingly put his postseason shooting slump behind him when he averaged 35.5 points over the final two games of the second-round series against Miami but he was a nonfactor in the two blowout losses in Cleveland. "I'm super confident," Lowry told reporters. "I missed countless 3s that I thought were good and that I made last series. That's why I'm not down on myself. We've got a game on Saturday, and I know I'm going to be much more effective."

TRENDS:

* Cavaliers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Conference Finals games.
* Raptors are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
* Over is 24-6 in Raptors last 30 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points.
* Home team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
* Under is 21-5-1 in the last 27 meetings in Toronto.

CONSENSUS: The Covers wagering public is favoring the Cavaliers at a rate of 61 percent. Over is the popular pick on the totals board picking up 70 percent of the action.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA
Long Sheet

Saturday, May 21

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CLEVELAND (67 - 25) at TORONTO (64 - 34) - 5/21/2016, 8:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 28-19 ATS (+7.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
TORONTO is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) in all playoff games over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 176-221 ATS (-67.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
TORONTO is 33-41 ATS (-12.1 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season.
TORONTO is 110-143 ATS (-47.3 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 7-5 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
CLEVELAND is 7-5 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
6 of 12 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NBA
Short Sheet

Saturday, May 21

Cleveland at Toronto, 8:35 ET
Cleveland: 0-7 ATS in road games after covering 5 or 6 of their last 7
Toronto: 33-19 ATS after allowing 100 points or more 2 straight games




NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Saturday, May 21

Toronto-Cleveland (C 2-0)
Cavaliers won six of last eight games with Toronto; over is 5-2-1 in last eight series games. Raptors lost by 31-19 points in first two games this series- they're 6-2 at home in playoffs. Cavs are 10-0 SU in the playoffs, 7-3 vs spread (over 5-4-1). Toronto won four of last five home games; three of last four went over. NBA playoff faves of 8+ points are 21-6 against the spread this season.

Playoff tally: Favorites vs spread: 26-18, Over: 13-31
Second round: Favorites: 13-8, over: 12-9
Conference final: Favorites: 3-1, over: 1-2-1




NBA

Saturday, May 21

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Trend Report
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8:30 PM
CLEVELAND vs. TORONTO
Cleveland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Cleveland is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Toronto is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 17 of Toronto's last 20 games when playing at home against Cleveland


WNBA

Saturday, May 21

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Trend Report
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6:00 PM
LOS ANGELES vs. NEW YORK
Los Angeles is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against New York
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Los Angeles's last 5 games
New York is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Los Angeles
New York is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games

7:00 PM
WASHINGTON vs. CONNECTICUT
Washington is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Washington's last 16 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Connecticut's last 8 games
Connecticut is 5-11 ATS in its last 16 games when playing Washington

8:30 PM
SAN ANTONIO vs. DALLAS
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Antonio's last 5 games
San Antonio is 1-3-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Dallas is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against San Antonio
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Dallas's last 7 games when playing at home against San Antonio


WNBA
Long Sheet

Saturday, May 21

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LOS ANGELES (15 - 22) at NEW YORK (26 - 14) - 5/21/2016, 6:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LOS ANGELES is 81-110 ATS (-40.0 Units) after a win by 10 points or more since 1997.
LOS ANGELES is 154-194 ATS (-59.4 Units) after scoring 75 points or more since 1997.
NEW YORK is 27-14 ATS (+11.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW YORK is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in May, June, or July games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW YORK is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) against Western conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
NEW YORK is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW YORK is 3-1 against the spread versus LOS ANGELES over the last 3 seasons
NEW YORK is 3-1 straight up against LOS ANGELES over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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WASHINGTON (19 - 18) at CONNECTICUT (15 - 19) - 5/21/2016, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 279-337 ATS (-91.7 Units) in all games since 1997.
WASHINGTON is 176-221 ATS (-67.1 Units) vs. division opponents since 1997.
WASHINGTON is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 6 points over the last 3 seasons.
CONNECTICUT is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in home games after a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 5-4 against the spread versus CONNECTICUT over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON is 7-2 straight up against CONNECTICUT over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN ANTONIO (8 - 26) at DALLAS (18 - 18) - 5/21/2016, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN ANTONIO is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) as a road underdog of 9.5 to 12 points over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 7-1 against the spread versus SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 5-4 straight up against SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


NBA
Dunkel

Saturday, May 21


Cleveland @ Toronto

Game 709-710
May 21, 2016 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cleveland
132.452
Toronto
124.629
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cleveland
by 8
194
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cleveland
by 5 1/2
198 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Cleveland
(-5 1/2); Under

[StarDust Bum]

NBA MONEYLINE

NBA > (709) CLEVELAND@ (710) TORONTO | 2016-05-21 20:35:00 - 2016-05-21 20:35:00
Play ON CLEVELAND using money line in All games when leading in a playoff series
The record is 14 Wins and 1 Losses for the last two seasons (+13.65 units)

NBA > (709) CLEVELAND@ (710) TORONTO | 2016-05-21 20:35:00 - 2016-05-21 20:35:00
Play ON CLEVELAND using money line in All games in all playoff games
The record is 24 Wins and 6 Losses for the last two seasons (+19.25 units)

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NBA FIRST HALF

BA > (709) CLEVELAND@ (710) TORONTO | 2016-05-21 20:35:00 - 2016-05-21 20:35:00
Play AGAINST CLEVELAND ?>in the first halfin Road games on Saturday games
The record is 2 Wins and 14 Losses for the last three seasons (-13.4 units)

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NBA TOTALS

NBA > (709) CLEVELAND@ (710) TORONTO | 2016-05-21 20:35:00 - 2016-05-21 20:35:00
Play OVER CLEVELAND on the totalin Road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season
The record is 14 Overs and 3 Unders for the this season (+10.7 units)

NBA > (709) CLEVELAND@ (710) TORONTO | 2016-05-21 20:35:00 - 2016-05-21 20:35:00
Play UNDER CLEVELAND on the totalin All games against Atlantic division opponents
The record is 12 Overs and 30 Unders for the last two seasons (+16.8 units)

NBA > (709) CLEVELAND@ (710) TORONTO | 2016-05-21 20:35:00 - 2016-05-21 20:35:00
Play OVER CLEVELAND on the totalin All games in the conference finals
The record is 15 Overs and 2 Unders for the since 1992 (+12.8 units)


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TOP POWERLINES

NBA > (709) CLEVELAND @ (710) TORONTO | 2016-05-21 20:35:00 - 2016-05-21 20:35:00
Line: CLEVELAND BTB PowerLine: CLEVELAND7
Edge On: CLEVELAND (2)

[StarDust Bum]

5/20 - OVERALL: 65 - 69

SATURDAY, MAY 21

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

CLE at TOR 08:30 PM

TOR +5.5

O 198.5

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Sunday's six-pack

Six of the my favorite baseball announce teams to listen to on the baseball package

-- Brian Anderson/Bill Schroeder, Brewers

-- Victor Rojas/Mark Gubicza, Angels

-- Don Orsillo/Mark Grant, Padres

-- Dick Bremer/Bert Blyleven, Twins

-- Drew Goodman/Jeff Huson or Ryan Spliborghs, Rockies

-- Jason Bennetti/Steve Stone, White Sox

Other analysts I think are very good: Ron Darling (Mets), Bob Brenly (Arizona) and Ray Fosse (A's). Not that fond of their play-by-play partners, though.

**********

Armadillo: Sunday's List of 13: Wrapping up a sports Saturday.......

13) Milwaukee Brewer TV announcers were telling a story about last July 31, when the Mets/Brewers almost made a trade at the deadline. Milwaukee brass told Carlos Gomez he had been traded to the Mets, he was shaking hands with teammates, saying his goodbyes but then the trade fell through.

12) Mets wound up trading for Yoenis Cespedes instead, which worked out really well for them, as they got to the World Series. Gomez wound up getting dealt to the Astros, where he has struggled greatly.

11) As far as baseball eliminating the four pitches for the intentional walk, last year in the major leagues there were 951 intentional walks in 2,430 games, so eliminating those four pitches isn't going to be a huge time-saver.

10) Ichiro Suzuki had his 253rd game with 3+ hits last night, most amongst active players. Ichiro now has 2,954 hits in his 16 big league seasons.

9) I've got no idea why, but people in Chicago do not like ketchup on hot dogs. White Sox announcers were discussing this the other night and back in 2003, a friend of mine actually got mad at me for asking for ketchup at a Chicago hot dog stand.

I dislike mustard and relish but if I knew the ketchup was going to cause a problem, I would've eaten the weiner plain.

8) A batter who hits a sacrifice fly isn't charged with an at-bat, but a batter who knocks in a run with a ground out is-- why is this? Whats the difference?

7) Marlins 3, Nationals 2-- Washington had bases loaded, no one out in ninth inning but couldn't tie game. Miami is now 3.5 games behind Washington in NL East.

6) Jim Baron is retiring as basketball coach at Canisius at age 62; he has been a very good coach at a number of places: Canisius, St Bonaventure, URI, St Francis, PA.

Few years ago, I was sitting in front of coach Baron at an AAU tournament here in Albany- his son was playing. It was a close game against a local team, and at the end of the game, the hometown refs gave the local team a couple calls and they won.

Coach Baron had been pretty low-key during the game but when his son's team got hosed at the end and lost, he was steamed and he went after the offending ref to give him a piece of his mind. He did quickly and fairly quietly but believe me, the guy who made the calls deserved to get ripped.

Anyway, good luck in retirement coach. Canisius will miss you. .

5) 164 undergraduates declared for this year's NBA Draft; many have returned to college, but there are only 60 picks in the draft, so add in seniors and kids from other countries and a lot of kids are going to wind up very disappointed.

4) Toronto's Bismack Biyombo is going to make a fortune as a free agent this summer and when he does, remember this: last night in Game 3 against Cleveland, Biyombo had 15 rebounds before he took his first shot of the game. Guys like that are worth their weight in gold, if you want to have a winning team.

3) Jack McDowell threw 10+ complete games three years in a row, the last pitcher to do that and that was back in 1991-93. Will probably never happen again.

2) Major league baseball wants more balls in play; approximately 30% of plate appearances are ending in walks/strikeouts. Baseball's head honchos want more action, so they're going to raise the strike zone some, hoping it'll result in more balls put in play, which makes the game more interesting. We'll see how that goes.

1) RIP Alan Young 96, the actor who played Wilbur Post on the classic TV show Mr Ed, passed away this week. It is not easy to be a straight man for a talking horse; that was one of my favorite TV shows as a kid. Yes, I said a talking horse, but he only talked to Wilbur, which caused problems with Wilbur's wife Carol.

Just loved Mr Ed, whether he was driving a delivery truck or taking batting practice against Sandy Koufax (yes, Koufax tossed a meatball to a horse, with manager Leo Durocher watching). Spent many hours laughing with this show. RIP, sir.