The Bum's National Basketball League Apri's Picks/Trends/News Thru the Playoffs !!

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

Some college football pointspreads for this fall, from the South Point casino:

-- Oct 15: Alabama (-3.5) @ Tennessee

-- Oct 20: BYU @ Boie State (-11.5)

-- Oct 29: Clemson (-1) @ Florida State

-- Nov 5: TCU @ Baylor (-7.5)

-- Nov 12: Stanford @ Oregon (-1.5)

-- Nov 26: Michigan @ Ohio State (-6.5)

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Armadillo: Monday's List of 13: Wrapping up a sports weekend......

13) Raptors 116, Heat 89-- Toronto is in NBA's Final Four for first time.

12) I've always wondered what the story was behind Russell Wilson transferring from NC State to Wisconsin, before his senior year, and the Wolfpack seemingly not caring if he left or not. Now Russell Wilson says coach Tom O'Brien basically fired him and told him he had no future in football. Curious to see what O'Brin has to say.

11) A's 7, Rays 6-- Danny Valencia homered three times, including the game-winner in the 9th inning, as Oakland salvaged a lousy road trip by going 2-1 in St Pete.

10) 15 baseball games Sunday; game-winning run scored in 7th inning or later in 11 of the 15 games. Pretty good day at the ballpark.

9) Rangers 7, Blue Jays 6-- Big-league brawl in this game, an offshoot of the tensions between these clubs in last year's playoffs. This was an actual fight, not the normal pushing/pulling baseball scuffle. Umps worked hard to keep the peace.

Matt Bush drilled Jose Bautista right before the brawl started; Bautista was smart enough not to go after Bush, who recently spent 3.5 years in jail. Don't want to be picking fights with guys who have done hard time.

8) Tom Dolan came up with a great stat Sunday: Lenny Dykstra had 81 HRs in 4,552 regular season career ABs. 10 HRs in 112 postseason ABs. That is a HR every 56.2 ABs in regular season games, one every 11.2 in postseason games.

7) Red Sox have scored in first inning in 12 of their 22 home games.

6) Rockies 4, Mets 3-- New Yorkers get swept in Denver.

5) Odd timing by MLB announcing Jose Reyes' suspension with New York media is in Denver for the weekend; then the Bronx Bombers brought up catching prospect Gary Sanchez the same day. There aren't many coincidences in this world........could the Bombers be interested in acquiring Reyes?

4) Why run differential is an overrated stat: Phillies are 22-16, but 14-3 in one-run games; they've got a -30 run differential but would be in the playoffs if they started today (they don't). They're maxing out on the talent they have, but wins are the only stat that truly matters and Philly has a lot of them.

3) Red Sox have scored 229 runs, 50 more than any other AL team.

2) If the baseball playoffs started today:
AL: Orioles-White Sox-Rangers. Wild Card: Boston-Seattle
NL: Nationals-Cubs-Giants. Wild Card: Phillies-Mets

1) Heading back from vacation this weekend on the Jersey shore; a tremendous place, lot of good places to eat, lot of good people, made some new friends. Walking on the beach is highly underrated.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA

Monday, May 16

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Monday's NBA Conference Finals betting preview and odds: Thunder at Warriors
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The Warriors swept the three-game season series with the Thunder and were 2-0-1 against the spread in those contests.

Oklahoma City Thunder at Golden State Warriors (-7.5, 223.5)

Series tied 0-0

The defending champion and top-seeded Golden State Warriors are one series away from another appearance in the NBA Finals but are staring at an opponent that seems to get stronger by the game. The Oklahoma City Thunder will try to steal Game 1 on the road when they visit the Warriors for the series opener on Monday.

The Thunder have won four of their five road games in the postseason and took a pair in the semifinals at San Antonio, which dropped only one home game during the regular season. "The one thing that's happened for our team, which has been good, is Dallas and San Antonio," Oklahoma City coach Billy Donovan told reporters. "These games helped us get better. We have improved and gotten better. I think there's an opportunity to continue to grow for our team.” The Warriors spent most of the first two rounds without two-time MVP Stephen Curry, but the star point guard returned in the final two games of the semifinals against Portland and averaged 34.5 points, 9.5 assists and seven rebounds while providing the dagger 3-pointers that clinched both wins. Golden State got four full days off between series to help heal Curry’s knee injury and buy some time for center Andrew Bogut (adductor), who left Game 5 against the Trail Blazers and sat out practices on Friday and Saturday.

TV: 9 p.m. ET, TNT

LINE HISTORY: The Warriors opened at 7.5-point favorites an, as of Sunday evening, the line hasn't budged since its release. The total opened at 223 and came up by a half point to 223.5. Check out the complete line history here.

ABOUT THE THUNDER (63-30, 44-48-1 ATS, 45-48 O/U): Oklahoma City lost Game 1 against the Spurs by 32 points but rebounded to win the series behind stars Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant. Westbrook, who drew some criticism and heaped more on himself after needing 31 shots to get 31 points in a Game 3 loss, was arguably the best player on the floor in the final three games of the series, dictating the pace and relentlessly attacking the basket. “I’m excited for all of our players,” Donovan told reporters. “Those guys have done a tremendous job and have worked really hard getting prepared to play each game. I’m just happy that we get a chance to advance and continue to play.”

ABOUT THE WARRIORS (81-11, 52-38-2 ATS, 50-41-1 O/U): Golden State will start Festus Ezeli at center if Bogut is unable to go in Game 1, and the team is confident a reserve frontcourt that includes Anderson Varejao and Marreese Speights can pick up the slack. “We’ve got a lot of options, a lot of depth,” Kerr said. “The good thing is, we’ve had to play without a lot of people this year, and we’ve had to adapt to that. We’ll figure it out.” All-Star forward Draymond Green rolled his ankle in the finale against Portland but has been practicing over the weekend and is more worried about getting baited into technical fouls (he’s already been whistled for four during the postseason) than he is about the ankle.

TRENDS:

* Thunder are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
* Warriors are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games.
* Under is 4-1 in Thunder last 5 Conference Finals games.
* Under is 5-1 in Warriors last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
* Home team is 7-0-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings.

CONSENSUS: Somewhat surprising early Consensus data with the Thunder picking up 51 percent of the wagers as of Sunday evening. The Over is the fun play with these two offensive-minded teams, so not a huge surprise that 70 percent of users are picking the Over.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA
Long Sheet

Monday, May 16

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OKLAHOMA CITY (63 - 30) at GOLDEN STATE (81 - 11) - 5/16/2016, 9:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 19-28 ATS (-11.8 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 210 this season.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 35-49 ATS (-18.9 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 25-34 ATS (-12.4 Units) after scoring 105 points or more this season.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 26-38 ATS (-15.8 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 51-38 ATS (+9.2 Units) in all games this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 40-31 ATS (+5.9 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 210 this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 48-37 ATS (+7.3 Units) as a favorite this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points over the last 3 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 57-39 ATS (+14.1 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 75-61 ATS (+7.9 Units) after scoring 105 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 58-40 ATS (+14.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 32-17 ATS (+13.3 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 40-26 ATS (+11.4 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 66-45 ATS (+16.5 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 156-114 ATS (+30.6 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
GOLDEN STATE is 5-4 against the spread versus OKLAHOMA CITY over the last 3 seasons
GOLDEN STATE is 7-3 straight up against OKLAHOMA CITY over the last 3 seasons
6 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NBA
Short Sheet

Monday, May 16

Oklahoma City at Golden State, 9:05 ET
Oklahoma City: 10-21 ATS after having won 4 of their last 5
Golden State: 11-1 ATS after 2 games where they were called for 25 or more fouls




NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Monday, May 16

Oklahoma City-Golden State (0-0)
Warriors won six of last seven games with Oklahoma City; over is 6-4 in last ten series games. Thunder lost last five visits to Oakland, as Warriors covered last four. OC beat Spurs in six games; they've been off since Thursday; Golden State beat Portland in five; they've been off for one more day than Thunder. Thunder won four of last five road games. Golden State won its last six home games (5-1 vs spread).

Playoff tally: Favorites vs spread: 26-18, Over: 13-31
Second round: Favorites: 13-8, over: 12-9




NBA

Monday, May 16

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Trend Report
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9:00 PM
OKLAHOMA CITY vs. GOLDEN STATE
Oklahoma City is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Golden State
Oklahoma City is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Golden State's last 5 games
Golden State is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games

[StarDust Bum]

NBA
Dunkel

Monday, May 16


Oklahoma City @ Golden State

Game 701-702
May 16, 2016 @ 9:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Oklahoma City
128.621
Golden State
133.111
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Golden State
by 4 1/2
216
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Golden State
by 7 1/2
224
Dunkel Pick:
Oklahoma City
(+7 1/2); Under

[StarDust Bum]

West Finals Game 1 Essentials

May 16, 2016


Western Conference - Game 1 - Series tied 0-0

Oklahoma City at Golden State (-7.5/224), 9:05 p.m. ET - TNT

2015-16 Meetings

Feb 6, 2016 - Oklahoma City 108 at Golden State 116 (Push -8, Under 233.5)
Feb 27, 2016 - Golden State 121 at Oklahoma City 118 (Thunder +3.5, Over 233.5)
Mar 3, 2016 - Oklahoma City 106 at Golden State 121 (Warriors -7.5, Under 230)

The Warriors are probably a bit surprised that this isn’t San Antonio coming into town to begin the process of deciding the West given how both teams were tied together in the regular season. Instead, it’s Oklahoma City, but there are no illusions that it will be any easier for Golden State to return to the NBA Finals and defend their title. Although they swept all three regular-season meetings, nothing comes easy against Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook.

Sportsbook.ag has set the series prices at -350 for favored Golden State and enticing OKC backers with a return of +275.

“Golden State swept the regular season series from Oklahoma City, but the Thunder led in the fourth quarter in two of those defeats,” notes VegasInsider NBA expert Kevin Rogers. “Oklahoma City has won four of five road games in the playoffs, while Golden State has covered five of six home playoff contests. However, the Warriors are stepping up in class after knocking out a .500 Rockets squad in the opening round and drawing an overachieving Blazers' club in the second round after the Clippers lost their top two players in the opening round.”

With all due respect to Durant and Westbrook, plot lines start with two-time reigning MVP Stephen Curry, whose knee looks like it won’t be an issue barring any setbacks in the series. Although he struggled to find a rhythm at times upon coming back for Game 4 in Portland, Curry ended up shooting 50 percent in both of his games after missing most of the first round. He averaged 34.5 points, 7 rebounds and 9.5 assists while shooting 10-for-27 from 3-point range.

Although Westbrook is his counterpart in the lineup, the initial assignment of defending Curry will fall to Andre Roberson, whose length will be a major asset in attempting to slow him down. During the regular season, the NBA’s leading scorer averaged 35.0 points in the three wins over the Thunder, shooting 48 percent as the highest-scoring team in the league posted an average of 118.7 points in the three wins, twice scoring 121.

Curry’s 3-point shooting was erratic, since he enjoyed his most prolific game on a memorable Saturday night where he went 12-for-16 from beyond the arc. You remember, that was the game he won at the buzzer in OT, drilling his NBA-record tying 12th 3-pointer to the disbelief of everyone in attendance in Oklahoma City and captivated watching at home on national television.

Curry has also had a 1-for-9 effort from beyond the arc the first time he saw the Thunder, which is still his worst shooting game of the season from 3-point range at Oracle. He shot 5-for-15 (33 pct) in the most recent meeting, well below his regular season average of 45 percent. So, the Thunder have been able to make his life difficult, but they’ve lost all three times in this series despite Curry having drastically different levels of success, which means he may not be the key.

Klay Thompson shot nearly 53 percent and averaged 23.7 points in the wins, shooting better than 50 percent all three times. Draymond Green shot just 33 percent, a number weighed down by an 0-for-8 effort at OKC, but he made all the winning plays he’s become known for, helping anchor the defense while averaging 12.3 boards and nine assists. Although he’s been dealing with ankle issues, he’ll be ready to work.

The Warriors aren’t as certain about Andrew Bogut in Game 1, listing him as questionable with hip trouble, but should have their starting center available for duty. Shaun Livingston and Harrison Barnes are always x-factors, typically making Golden State unbeatable when they’re excellent. Those guys can sway the series, but deciding it?

How about Durant? Can he turn it up a few notches? Considering Elias Sports Bureau notes that he joined Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and Wilt Chamberlain as the only players ever to average at least 36 points, 12 rebounds and six assists against an opponent they faced at least three times in a season, there’s not much improvement to be had there. He shot 53 percent despite often facing two of the top defenders in the game, Green and Andre Iguodala. Durant scored 37 points and grabbed five rebounds in the Game 6 clincher against San Antonio and had a 41-point game in the Game 4 where everything changed.

He’ll look to reverse a trend that saw him shoot just 1-for-7 in the last 3:00 and OT against the Warriors this season, but he’s still who you want with the ball in his hands down the stretch if you’re Thunder head coach Billy Donovan.

Which brings us to Westbrook, always divisive since his antics have cost the Thunder games in the past. He’s probably the NBA’s best athlete, unquestionably a superstar, but a look at his numbers in the regular-season contests tells you this series swings on his improvement. It rides on his decision-making.

Westbrook had his best game against the Warriors in that first outing, a visit to Oakland where he shot 8-for-22 but dished out 12 assists and committed just three turnovers, playing within himself despite the huge stage, one night before the Super Bowl also being played in the Bay Area, which made the Saturday evening basketball game an appetizer attended by a who’s who of celebrities.

His other performances simply weren’t as sound. In the game Curry thrived in, Westbrook was sliced up defensively, turned it over seven times, shot 10-for-29 and was an ice-cold 0-for-6 from beyond the arc. In the most recent March meeting, he was 8-for-24 from the field, including 1-for-8 from 3-point range. The Warriors provide him with multiple looks to limit his aggressiveness and try to bait him into settling for jumpers. Thus far, it’s worked.

Westbrook’s rock bottom in this postseason has been a 10-for-31 shooting performance in the last loss suffered against the Spurs, a nightmare of a Game 3 that looked like the beginning of the end for OKC. While Westbrook didn’t shoot the ball well in Game 4, he dished out 15 assists, turned it over just three times and was able to make sure everyone else got off, a chore he struggles with in balancing his ridiculous talent with the job description of a point guard. Oklahoma City is a perfect 6-0 this postseason when Westbrook dishes out double-digit assists. They’re 2-3 when he doesn’t.

Nobody should expect him to deviate too far from the attacking, Tazmanian devil-style that has made him great, but reining himself in enough to ensure the ball moves and everyone remains engaged against Golden State is a must if you’re going to beat a team this efficient.

Thunder big men Steven Adams, Enes Kanter and Serge Ibaka must still help control the paint like they did against San Antonio, but the Warriors offer up a far different challenge than the Spurs did. They’ll have to stay focused on defense, but the Warriors are going to isolate them on occasion and make them look bad. Donovan will have to push the right buttons against reigning NBA Coach of the Year Steve Kerr, but he’ll need Westbrook responsibly at the controls to have a chance at pulling the upset to beat the champs four times. No one is doubting OKC has the talent to win a game or two, but getting out of the series will require Westbrook putting it all together. VI’s Rogers believes we’re in for a great series since Oklahoma City is playing its best basketball when it matters most.

“Currently, the Thunder are playing better than the Warriors. Golden State needed to rally from 16+ point deficits in two victories against Portland, while needing to outlast the Blazers in the series clincher of the second round,” Rogers said. “After the Thunder were blown out by the Spurs in the series opener, Oklahoma City won four of the final five games, including a pair of victories at the AT&T Center where the Spurs lost only one regular-season game.”

The Warriors went 39-2 at Oracle Arena during the regular season and are a perfect 6-0 there during these playoffs, winning by an average margin of 14.9 points per game. Golden State has a 5-1 mark ATS in Oakland, only failing to cover the series clincher against the Blazers. The Thunder were just 23-18 on the road during the season and but are 5-1 this postseason straight up and against the number. The ‘over’ has prevailed in the last three GSW games and two of the last three OKC games. The total for this Western Conference finals opener is nearly 10 points lower than two of their last three regular-season meetings closed at.

[StarDust Bum]

Warriors expect tough task from Thunder

May 15, 2016

OAKLAND, Calif. (AP) Stephen Curry's near half-court shot to win it in overtime at Oklahoma City in late February became one of the defining moments in his record-shattering MVP season.

Now, with four more victories against Kevin Durant and the Thunder in the Western Conference finals, Curry and Co. will move one step closer to the Warriors' ultimate goal: A repeat championship.

''It was a deep shot, and it was a huge shot - it was something I've never seen,'' Durant recalled. ''But it wasn't like it was a shot that went across the whole world.''

No arguing Curry's fame has gone global. He is fresh of becoming the NBA's first unanimous MVP, but there's more work to do.

Golden State was outrebounded 62-32 in that Feb. 27 win, and the Warriors can't even believe they pulled off that one.

''I have no clue,'' swingman Draymond Green said. ''That's one of the craziest things I've ever seen. That's not supposed to happen.''

Golden State won all three regular-season meetings with the Thunder on the way to its record 73-win season, but slowing down Russell Westbrook and Durant will be a chore after the Thunder beat San Antonio 4-2 in the Western Conference semifinals.

''They're an explosive team. They're clicking right now and found a good recipe to beat a tough Spurs team,'' Curry said. ''That says a lot about how they're playing right now.''

The Warriors are optimistic Curry's sprained right knee will stay healthy for the entire round when he best-of-seven series begins Monday night at Oracle Arena.

After being sidelined in the first round with an ankle injury and then missing the first three games against the Trail Blazers, Curry came off the bench and overcame a slow start to score 40 points in a 132-125 Game 4 overtime win at Portland on Monday night, including an NBA-record 17 in overtime. He then started and scored 29 points Wednesday night in the clincher at home.

''The last three years against them it's been pretty entertaining games, most of the time going down to the wire, so you can only imagine what it will be like in the playoffs,'' Curry said. ''Every possession's going to be key.''

Here are some things to watch for in the West finals:

BOGUT'S LEG: Golden State 7-foot-center Andrew Bogut returned to practice Sunday to test a strained muscle in his right leg between the hamstring and groin. The Warriors didn't scrimmage, so Bogut was listed as questionable for Monday's series opener. With no shootaround Monday, coach Steve Kerr said he would go through a strenuous warmup before the game to determine his status.

Meanwhile, Curry said Sunday his knee hasn't improved much the past week and it will just be about ''pain tolerance'' and he expects to be able to handle his regular load and production.

THOMPSON'S D: First, Klay Thompson chased James Harden around for five games and held him in check. Then Damian Lillard for five more. And now he draws Westbrook in another daunting defensive assignment.

Yet Thompson spent Thursday's day off at a dog park - so, yes, his legs are still plenty fresh, thank you.

''It's been a lot of fun,'' Thompson said. ''My energy on both offense and defense never really withered. I was locked in for five straight games. I shot the ball well. That helps. ... It's nice to have home court. You've got to set yourself up mentally each series, you've got to reset. Guarding James and guarding Damian, and hopefully now up for the challenge of Westbrook and Durant, you've got to get your rest but mentally prepare yourself for no rest, really.''

CRASH THE BOARDS: The Thunder were the NBA's top rebounding team, by a long shot. While sending Durant, center Steven Adams, power forward Serge Ibaka and others to the glass at every chance, Oklahoma City outrebounded opponents by 8.4 - twice that of any other team. Even Westbrook crashes the offensive boards as well as anybody from the point guard position.

''It's a different type of series, we're absolutely going to have to play better,'' Kerr said. ''This is a much bigger team. Rebounding will be key.''

That means the Golden State guards doing their part.

''We got outrebounded by like 30 in OKC and we won. I've never heard of a team doing that,'' Curry said.

EXPERIENCED THUNDER: Oklahoma City is in the West finals for the fourth time in six years and lost to Miami for the 2012 title.

First-year coach Billy Donovan is trying to pull of the feat that Kerr did a year ago in his rookie season leading Golden State to its first championship in 40 years.

''We know exactly what we're up against,'' Kerr said. ''They've been one of the best teams in the league for the last six-seven years. The reality is in this league all you can ask for is to give yourself a swing at the plate every year, and they've had a lot of swings and they've come really, really close.''

ENTERTAINMENT VALUE: This series could be quite an offensive show for basketball fans.

''You've got amazing athletes, amazing scorers,'' Thompson said. ''You've got everything you want in a series.''

Durant shot 50 percent against the Spurs.

The Warriors have a long list of play-makers.

''They're going to make demoralizing plays all the time,'' Adams said.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA MONEYLINE

NBA > (701) OKLAHOMA CITY@ (702) GOLDEN STATE | 2016-05-16 21:05:00 - 2016-05-16 21:05:00
Play ON GOLDEN STATE using money line in All games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game
The record is 87 Wins and 20 Losses for the last two seasons (+41.55 units)

NBA TOTALS

NBA > (701) OKLAHOMA CITY@ (702) GOLDEN STATE | 2016-05-16 21:05:00 - 2016-05-16 21:05:00
Play OVER OKLAHOMA CITY on the totalin Road games revenging a loss vs opponent
The record is 23 Overs and 6 Unders for the last two seasons (+16.4 units)


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TOP POWERLINE

NBA > (701) OKLAHOMA CITY @ (702) GOLDEN STATE | 2016-05-16 21:05:00 - 2016-05-16 21:05:00
Line: OKLAHOMA CITY BTB PowerLine: OKLAHOMA CITY-1
Edge On: OKLAHOMA CITY (6.5)

[StarDust Bum]

SERIES AT A GLANCE

GAME 1
Thunder at Warriors
Mon, May 16 - 9:00PM EDT

GAME 2
Thunder at Warriors
Wed, May 18 - 9:00PM EDT

GAME 3
Warriors at Thunder
Sun, May 22 - 8:00PM EDT

GAME 4
Warriors at Thunder
Tue, May 24 - 9:00PM EDT

GAME 5
Thunder at Warriors
Thu, May 26 - 9:00PM EDT

GAME 6
Warriors at Thunder
Sat, May 28 - 9:00PM EDT

GAME 7
Thunder at Warriors
Mon, May 30 - 9:00PM EDT

[StarDust Bum]

5/15 - Yesteday's Results : 0 - 2
Overall : 60 - 66

MONDAY, MAY 16

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

OKC at GS 09:00 PM

OKC +7.5

O 224.5

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Tuesday's six-pack

Odds if you want to wager on outcome of Toronto-Cleveland series.......

Toronto in 4-- You collect 150-1.

Toronto in 5-- You collect 66-1.

Toronto in 6-- You collect 16-1.

Toronto in 7-- You collect 22-1.

Cleveland in 4-- You collect $260 on a $100 bet

Cleveland in 5-- You collect $150 on a $100 bet

Cleveland in 6-- You collec $400 on a $100 bet.

Cleveland in 7-- You collect $500 on a $100 bet.

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Armadillo: Tuesday's List of 13: Nobody asked me, but........

13) Thunder 108, Warriors 102-- Golden State led 61-47 at half, but were held to 41 points in second half as Thunder grab home-court edge in series. Oklhaoma City won a game where Westbrook/Durant combined to shoot 17-51.

12) Over last ten years, Winnipeg/Edmonton are only two NHL teams who haven't won at least one playoff game.

11) Why was Roughned Odor so mad at Jose Bautista? Because of some stupid bat flip from LY's playoffs? Odor avoided Bautista's hard slide into second; not sure why that game turned into a WWE Ranger Rumble, but suspensions will be handed down.

10) A's 3B Danny Valencia has five HRs in his last four games, after not having any in his previous 17 games.

9) Couple of signings in college basketball: Omer Yurtseven signs with NC State; he is from Turkey. Jordy Tshimanga signs with Nebraska.

8) Serious question: Can Bill Clinton be his wife's running mate?

7) Tennessee Ttians cut Zach Mettenberger, leaving Matt Cassel as their #2 QB. Guy on ESPN who used to be an NFL GM said there is probably more than meets the eye to this story and if the Chargers don't pick him up then it is really a red flag.

6) Since 1960, worst winning %'s of NFL starting QBs:
0-10-- Zach Mettenberger, Brodie Croyle
0-8-- Curtis Painter
0-7-- John Beck, Gary Marangi

5) Syracuse offers a degree in Sports Analytics; where was this topic when I was a young college student? I had to drag myself thru with an English degree. No bueno.

4) Toronto center Valunciunas is out for Game 1 tonight, and doubtful for Game 2, which is bad news for the Raptors, but backup Biyombo played well against Miami.

3) I'll say this about the draft; no way in hell is Domnatas Sabonis of Gonzaga the #12 pick in this draft, where ESPN has him in their mock draft. Much higher.

2) 76ers are first NBA team to sell advertising on their uniforms, they got $15M over thrtee years from Stub Hub.

1) NBA Draft Lottery is tonight; you listen to experts, the real loser is the team that gets the #3 pick, since Simmons/Ingram are the consensus top two picks, no matter who gets those choices.

[StarDust Bum]

Plenty of big ATS betting trends heading into Game 1 of NBA Eastern finals

The underdog has covered for three straight years in Game 1 of the East finals and is 9-3 ATS in the series opener going back to 2003-04 (75 percent).

The NBA conference finals are a breeding ground for betting underdogs over the past 22 postseasons, with playoff pups going 141-107-4 ATS with a ticket to the NBA Finals on the line.

That 57 percent winning clip is enough to turn a profit over time, but pales in comparison to the Game 1 winning rate Eastern Conference underdogs have posted in that same span. Heading into Game 1 of the Eastern finals, with the Cleveland Cavaliers set as -10.5 favorites hosting the Toronto Raptors, underdogs are 13-8-1 ATS – covering 62 percent of the time since the 1993-94 season – in the opening contests of the East championship.

Last year, underdogs went 7-2 ATS in the NBA conference finals including a 3-1 ATS mark in the Eastern side of the bracket. The Cavaliers closed as 2.5-point underdogs at Atlanta in Game 1 of the 2015 Eastern Conference finals, and won outright 97-89. The underdog has covered for three straight years in Game 1 of the East finals and is 9-3 ATS in the series opener going back to 2003-04 (75 percent).

The Western Conference hasn’t been so one sided in favor of the dogs. Game 1 chalk is 11-11 ATS since 1993-94, with favorites going 4-2 ATS in Game 1 over the past six seasons. However, underdogs did go 4-1 ATS in the Western Conference finals overall last season, with the Golden State Warriors hosting the Houston Rockets. Golden State is a 7.5-point home fave hosting Oklahoma City for Game 1 of the conference championship series Monday.

Another historic knock going against the Cavs, and in favor of the Raptors, is the size of that Game 1 spread. Since the 1993-94 season, double-digit underdogs in the NBA conference finals are 5-1 ATS (83 percent). Sportsbooks opened Cleveland as a 10.5-point home favorite for Tuesday’s game, having ample rest after sweeping Atlanta in the second round. Toronto is coming off a grueling seven-game set versus Miami – its second full series after going seven games with the Indiana Pacers.

Total bettors may want to take note of that big spread as well, as those six games featuring a double-digit line have finished 1-5 Over/Under. Those games have seen an average of 180.8 combined points scored versus an average closing total of 196.6. Overall, conference finals games are 113-135-3 Over/Under in the past 22 seasons, including a 3-6 O/U count last year.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA

Tuesday, May 17

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Tuesday's NBA Conference Finals betting preview and odds: Raptors at Cavaliers
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Cleveland is 8-0 in the playoffs after sweeping Detroit and Atlanta, while Toronto went the full seven games to eliminate both Indiana and Miami.

Toronto Raptors at Cleveland Cavaliers (-10.5, 201.5)

Series tied 0-0

The Cleveland Cavaliers have yet to be challenged this postseason and attempt to continue to cruise past opponents when they open the Eastern Conference finals against the Toronto Raptors on Tuesday. Cleveland is 8-0 in the playoffs after sweeping Detroit and Atlanta, while Toronto went the full seven games to eliminate both Indiana and Miami.

The Cavaliers will be the fresher team having not played since May 8 while the Raptors completed a hard-fought series with the Miami Heat on Sunday. "I've always said anytime you get an opportunity to get some rest throughout the course of our season, it's always beneficial for anybody," Cavaliers forward LeBron James told reporters. "Doesn't matter if you're a 31-year-old guy who's played a lot of basketball or you're a 19-year-old kid who just came into the league." Toronto has reached the conference finals for the first time in franchise history but coach Dwane Casey - a Dallas assistant when that organization won the 2011 NBA title - doesn't feel his team is satisfied. "It’s very important for our program," Casey told reporters. "I think we've done everything we've set out to do, but we're not done yet. I know what it's like to win a championship. I'm not saying we can do that, but I think this group is hungry."

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN

LINE HISTORY: The Cavaliers opened as double-digit favorites at home for Game 1 at -10.5 and the line hasn't moved as of Monday evening. The total opened at 202.5 and has come down a full point to 201.5. Check out the complete line history here.

ABOUT THE RAPTORS (64-32, 50-46 ATS, 47-48-1 O/U): Point guard Kyle Lowry began the postseason in a miserable slump but he starts the conference finals as a red-shot performer after averaging 35.5 points in the final two games of the series against the Heat. "It's the dedication that I've put into this game of basketball for myself and for this organization," Lowry told reporters after having 35 points, nine assists, seven rebounds and four steals in the 116-89 Game 7 blowout victory. "I just wanted to make sure I could be the best player I could be, at all times - especially on the biggest stage." The Raptors will be without starting center Jonas Valanciunas (ankle) for at least the first two games of the series and Casey said Monday that "he's a little ways away from contributing in a playoff game."

ABOUT THE CAVALIERS (65-25, 42-45-3 ATS, 45-45 O/U): James averaged 23.5 points through the first two rounds of the playoffs - below his career mark of 28 per game - as point guard Kyrie Irving (24.4) and power forward Kevin Love (18.9 points, 12.5 rebounds) have both had strong postseasons. Coach Tyronn Lue feels the help other players - including the occasional boost from supporting cast players like guard J.R. Smith and forward Channing Frye - has been a big aid to James. "I don't think he's been in this position before where he can just sit back and see the flow of the game, see where he has to take over the game and it's been great for him," Lue told reporters. "I mean, to average 23 points or 24 points and sweep both series is big for us because now our other guys are stepping up, they're playing well and we know LeBron always can play well."

TRENDS:

* Raptors are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win.
* Cavaliers are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
* Under is 8-1 in Raptors last 9 road games.
* Under is 6-1 in Cavaliers last 7 games playing on 3 or more days rest.
* Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.

CONSENSUS: The Toronto Raptors are picking up 66 percent of the spread action as of Monday evening and Over 201.5 is grabbing 60 percent of the over/under plays.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA
Long Sheet

Tuesday, May 17

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TORONTO (64 - 32) at CLEVELAND (65 - 25) - 5/17/2016, 8:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TORONTO is 23-36 ATS (-16.6 Units) after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 176-219 ATS (-64.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
TORONTO is 49-63 ATS (-20.3 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 36-44 ATS (-12.4 Units) as a favorite this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 5-5 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
CLEVELAND is 5-5 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
5 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Tuesday, May 17

Toronto-Cleveland (0-0)
Cavaliers won four of last six games with Toronto; four of last five tilts in series went over total. Raptors are in Final Four for first time; they won Game 7 over Miami Sunday afternoon, Cavaliers have been off for nine days- they're 8-0 in playoffs, 5-3 vs spread (over 4-4). Toronto is 1-3 in its last four road games (under 3-1).

Playoff tally: Favorites vs spread: 26-18, Over: 13-31
Second round: Favorites: 13-8, over: 12-9
Conference final: Favorites: 0-1, over: 0-1




NBA

Tuesday, May 17

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Trend Report
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8:30 PM
TORONTO vs. CLEVELAND
Toronto is 6-15 SU in its last 21 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Toronto's last 12 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
Cleveland is 15-6 SU in its last 21 games when playing at home against Toronto
Cleveland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

[StarDust Bum]

NBA
Dunkel

Tuesday, May 17


Toronto @ Cleveland

Game 703-704
May 17, 2016 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Toronto
124.276
Cleveland
130.805
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cleveland
by 6 1/2
196
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cleveland
by 10 1/2
202
Dunkel Pick:
Toronto
(+10 1/2); Under

[StarDust Bum]

Game 1 - Raptors at Cavaliers
May 17, 2016

After dealing out broom treatment twice to Detroit and Atlanta, Cleveland is poised to host Toronto tonight in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals at Quicken Loans Arena.

The Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas opened Cleveland (65-25 straight up, 42-45-3 against the spread) as a 10-point home favorite with a total of 202.5 points. As of early this morning, the betting shop had the Cavs as 10-point ‘chalk’ with the total adjusted to 201.5.

The Cavaliers are -700 on the money line, while gamblers can take the Raptors to win outright for a monster +500 return (risk $100 to win $500). For first-half wagers, Tyronn Lue’s squad is favored by 6.5 points.

Toronto (64-32 SU, 50-46 ATS) won two of three head-to-head meetings with Cleveland both SU and ATS during the regular season. In the first matchup on Nov. 25, the Raptors won a 103-99 decision as three-point home underdogs. The 202 combined points slipped ‘over’ the 200.5-point total.

Cleveland’s J.R. Smith buried a pair of 3-pointers in the final seconds to create a misleading final score. The Cavs played without Kyrie Irving.

Kyle Lowry paced his team with 27 points, four steals and six assists without a turnover. DeMar DeRozan finished with 20 points and four assists compared to only one turnover. Luis Scola contributed 15 points and seven rebounds while making 7-of-11 shots from the field. DeMarre Carroll was also in double figures with 12 points and was key in causing LeBron James (24 points and eight assists) to make only 6-of-16 from the field.

Bismack Biyombo had 11 points and 12 rebounds for the winners. Kevin Love finished with 21 points and 13 boards in the losing effort. The Raptors played without Jonas Valanciunas, who is ‘out’ for the series opener and is ‘doubtful’ for Game 2. He hasn’t even started basketball activities since spraining his ankle in Game 3 at Miami.

Before getting injured, Valanciunas had posted four consecutive double-doubles. During the regular season, Toronto’s starting center averaged 12.8 points, 9.1 rebounds and 1.3 blocked shots per game while shooting at a 56.5 percent clip from the field. In 10 postseason games, Valancuinas was averaging 15.0 points, 12.1 rebounds and 1.4 blocks while hitting shots at a 55.0 percent clip.

In the second regular-season encounter between these clubs, Cleveland captured a 122-100 victory as an eight-point home favorite. The 222 combined points soared ‘over’ the 194-point total. The Cavs outscored the Raptors by 20 in the second half.

Irving scored 25 points, grabbed six rebounds and handed out eight assists compared to merely one turnover. James had 20 points, seven assists and three steals, while Smith drained 8-of-14 attempts form 3-point range in a 24-point effort. Love finished with 14 points and nine rebounds, while Tristan Thompson produced 14 points and 11 boards.

Lowry contributed 23 points, four rebounds, two steals and 10 assists without a turnover in defeat. DeRozan finished with 19 points and Patrick Peterson added 15.

The rubber match in the regular season went to the Raptors, who won by a 99-97 count as 2.5-point home underdogs on Feb. 26. The 196 combined points dipped ‘under’ the 206.5-point tally.

Lowry was the catalyst with a career-high 43 points on incredible 15-of-20 shooting from the field. The Villanova product also had nine assists, five rebounds and four steals. Terrence Ross added 15 points from off the bench.

James finished with 25 points, eight rebounds and seven assists, but he committed six turnovers. Love had 20 points, nine boards and five assists without any turnovers.

While Cleveland has been resting and scouting for eight days after disposing of the Hawks with consecutive come-from-behind wins in Games 3 and 4 at Philips Arena, Toronto just polished off Miami in a grueling seven-game series that saw three games go to overtime.

Dwane Casey’s club outscored the Heat 30-11 in the fourth quarter to win by a 116-89 score as a 4.5-point home favorite in Sunday’s Game 7 at Air Canada Centre. Lowry led the way with 35 points, nine assists, seven rebounds and four steals. DeRozan added 28 points and eight boards, while Biyombo dominated the paint with 17 points, 16 boards and a pair of blocked shots. Carroll finished with 14 points, while Patterson had 11 points, 11 rebounds and two blocks.

Lowry struggled mightily in the Indiana series that took seven games for Toronto to get through. In Games 3, 5, 6 and 7 against Miami, however, Lowry scored 33, 25, 36 and 35 points, respectively. Though it appears Lowry has been his slump in the rearview mirror, he’s still shooting at a shaky 36.6 percent clip from the field in 14 postseason games this year. He’s made only 28.3 percent of his looks from downtown.

DeRozan, the Raps’ other All-Star, had 34, 23 and 28 points in the final three games against the Heat. But his shooting percentages from the field (35.5%) and from 3-point land (18.2%) have been horrible through 14 playoff outings.

Lue’s team shot the lights out from 3-point land against Atlanta. In the close-out game two Sundays ago, Cleveland made 16-of-37 from beyond the arc. Love hit eight 3’s en route to tallying 27 points, 13 rebounds and four assists. James nearly had a triple-double, contributing 21 points, 10 rebounds and nine assists. Irving also had 21 points.

In the only blowout of the series, Cleveland made an NBA-record 25 triples in Game 2. Smith hit seven 3-balls in a 23-point effort.

Cleveland owns a 37-8 SU record and a 23-22 ATS mark at home this year. Meanwhile, Toronto has posted a 25-21 SU record and a 24-22 ATS ledger in its road outings this season.

VegasInsider.com’s Chris David had this take on the Game 1 side: “The rust versus rest debate will come into play for Game 1 since Cleveland hasn’t played in over a week. Even though the Cavaliers have gone 6-1 straight up and 5-2 against the spread when playing on at least three days of rest this season, they didn’t look sharp in the last two situations which happened in this year’s playoffs. They beat Detroit in Game 1 of the first round but failed to cover and in the conference semifinals, they barely squeaked out a win and cover against Atlanta.

“It’s hard to dismiss what Cleveland has done in the postseason and they should win this series in five games or less. However, winning games and covering double digits are two completely different things and the Cavaliers haven’t been exactly a great bet in those role. They’ve gone 15-2 overall and produced a 9-8 record at the betting counter. While those ATS numbers make me believe Toronto has a shot to stay within reach on Tuesday, it’s hard to ignore that its gone 2-4 on the road in the playoffs and the spread hasn’t mattered. In the four losses, they lost by an average of 13.5 PPG.”

Totals have been an overall wash (45-45) for the Cavs, who have watched the ‘over’ go 24-21 in their home contests.

The ‘over’ has hit in three straight games for the Raptors, who had previously seen the ‘under’ on a 10-2 roll. The ‘under’ is 48-47-1 overall for Toronto, 26-20-1 in their road assignments.

David likes Cleveland’s team total to go ‘over’ in Tuesday’s series lid-lifter. “Based on what we’ve seen offensively from both Cleveland (107.8 PPG) and Toronto (94.7 PPG) in this year’s playoffs, the opening total for Game 1 (202 ½) is spot on. Two of the three regular season outcomes (103-99, 99-97) between the pair finished close to this number and then there was a 122-100 shootout victory for Cleveland. In that win the Cavs drilled 17 bombs from 3-point land and that’s something we’ve seen from the club in this year’s playoffs. Cleveland hasn’t been held under 100 in the postseason and leaning to its team total ‘over’ (106) on Tuesday looks doable.”

Tip-off is scheduled for 8:35 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

-- After trailing 60-47 at intermission of Game 1 on Monday night in Oakland, Oklahoma City rallied to take the series opener 108-102 at Golden State as a 7.5-point underdog. The Thunder hooked up money-line supporters with a +325 payout (paid $325 on $100 wagers). They won outright despite the fact that Kevin Durant (10-of-30) and Russell Westbrook (7-of-21) were awful from the field.

-- Westbrook made 11-of-14 free throws, however, and finished with 27 points, 12 assists, seven steals and six rebounds. Durant had 26 points, 10 boards and three steals. Steven Adams had 16 points, 12 rebounds and two blocked shots, while Serge Ibaka had 11 points and 11 boards. Dion Waiters was excellent off the bench, contributing 10 points and four assists without a turnover while making 4-of-6 shots from the floor.

-- Steph Curry went 1-of-6 from the field for Golden St. in the fourth quarter when it was outscored 23-14. The game was on pace to go ‘over’ after OKC scored 38 compared to the Warriors’ 28 in the third. But in the end, the 210 combined points didn’t even get close to the 225-point total. The tally increased throughout the day Monday after being around 222.5 in the morning.

-- Curry’s final stat line in Game 1: 26 points, 10 rebounds, seven assists and three steals. However, the Davidson product had seven turnovers and shot just 9-of-22 from the field. Klay Thompson finished with 25 points, nine rebounds and four assists, while Draymond Green had 23 points, five boards, four assists and two blocks.

-- With last night’s win at Oracle Arena, OKC improved to 6-2 ATS in eight games when listed as an underdog of seven points or more.