The Bum's National Basketball League Apri's Picks/Trends/News Thru the Playoffs !!

[StarDust Bum]

4/27 - Results: 4 - 2 ( 12 - 4 ) L/3Days
Overall : 40 - 38

THURSDAY, APRIL 28

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

ATL at BOS 08:00 PM

BOS +2.0

U 199.5

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Friday's six-pack

-- Phillies 3, Nationals 0-- Suprising Phils won six of last seven, are 12-10.

-- Hawks 104, Celtics 92-- Atlanta moves on to the second round.

-- Capitals 4, Penguins 3 OT-- Washington wins first game in series.

-- Marlins 5, Dodgers 3-- Miami sweeps four games in Chavez Ravine, but 2B Dee Gordon got benched for 80 games afterwards for flunking a PED test. .

-- Giancarlo Stanton has 22 RBI in 19 career games in Dodger Stadium.

-- '93 Buffalo Bills are last Super Bowl loser to make Super Bowl the next year.

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Armadillo: Friday's List of 13: Quick thoughts after the NFL Draft......

13) Very bad night to be Ole Miss T Laremy Tunsil; someone hacked his Twitter account, posted a picture of Tunsil smoking pot while wearing a gas mask. No bueno. It definitely was Tunsil in the picture and it is going to cost him millions of dollars. Apparently he ticked off the wrong person.

Tunsil wound up taken #13 by Miami; hope he learned his lesson. Dolphins may have gotten a great value if he has his life in order- before the Rams got the #1 pick in that big trade, Tunsil was rumored to be the Titans' #1 choice. .

12) Jared Goff's dad hit .215 in 250 PA as a backup catcher for three teams in the 90's. I have no idea how Jared will do, but I'll be rooting like hell for him and I know this-- Bill Parcells never wanted to draft a QB unless he played for three years in college, and Goff started three years at Cal. In the Pac-12.

11) This is a little bit random, but I'm wondering if quarterbacks with lot of siblings fare better leading a team than a guy who was an only child. When you grow up in a big family, you have to deal more with different types of personailities; with all the due diligence these professional teams do on prospects, I wonder if that plays into it at all.

10) This was the fifth year in a row Jacksonville drafted in the top 5; its not good for a coach's job security when that happens. Jalen Ramsey figures to help out a defense that was 29th against the pass LY.

9) Leonard Floyd (#9 to Chicago) was first SEC player taken; this was only third time in last 31 years no SEC player was taken in the first five picks of the draft. John Fox is going all-out to improve his defense this offseason.

8) This was the third time in last five years QBs went #1-2 in the draft; before that, it had been 13 years since the top two picks were quarterbacks.

7) Houston gave Washington a 6th round pick so they could move up one slot and draft Notre Dame WR Will Fuller, who is very fast but drops a lot of passes. A 6th-round pick doesn't sound like much, but 16 years ago, the Patriots used a 6th-round pick on someone you may have heard of-- Tom Brady.

6) Redskins then took TCU's WR Josh Doctson, who I think is great-- TCU's offense went in the ashcan LY as soon as Doctson got hurt.

5) Chiefs got extra 4th, 6th-round draft choices from the 49ers so SF could move up a few spots (eight?), and draft G Joshua Garnett of Stanford.

NFL Network guys were ready to bash the 49ers for trading up just to take a lineman, but David Shaw, Garnett's college coach, was sitting next to them on the dais so they backed off.

Shaw, by the way, is very good on TV and will have a spot waiting for him in a studio somewhere when he doesn't want to coach anymore.

4) In the 1981 baseball draft, two-sport star John Elway was taken six picks ahead of another two-sport star, Tony Gwynn. Whoops.

3) Eagles have $61M in guaranteed money tied up in their three QBs; Bradford, Wentz and Chase Daniel. Bradford wants a trade, but not to the 49ers; apparently he is no Chip Kelly fan. Could he wind up on the Jets?

2) I mean, it is April 29 and Ryan Fitzpatrick is making noises like he has no intention of ever playing for the Jets again, which means they don't have an NFL-caliber QB on their roster, unless Bryce Petty somehow had an epiphany during the offseason. Trading for Bradford could make sense.

1) NFL Network did a fine job with their coverage Thursday; I can't stand Chris Berman, so I won't watch ESPN if he is on, which he won't be tonight, so I can listen to my man Mel Kiper the next two nights. Stretching this out over three days is a debatable idea, but moving it around the country is a great idea. Philadelphia is said to be the favorite to host the draft next year.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA

Friday, April 29

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Friday's NBA playoffs betting preview and odds
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The Clippers have been forced into a defensive strategy due to injuries to Chris Paul and Blake Griffin. Can defense get them a win in Rip City?

We have three huge first round basketball games Friday night. The Raptors, Hornets, and Trail Blazers are all looking to eliminate their opposition and move on to the second round.

Toronto Raptors at Indiana Pacers (-2, 194.5)

Raptors lead series 3-2

Toronto shooting guard DeMar DeRozan emerged from his playoff hibernation in the Game 5 victory and will attempt to help the Raptors clinch the best-of-7 series when they visit the Indiana Pacers on Friday. DeRozan set a personal best for the postseason with 34 points in the 102-99 road win to give the Raptors a 3-2 series lead.

DeRozan shot just 29.6 percent over the first four games but rediscovered his All-Star form with the stellar effort. "It's all about patience," DeRozan told reporters. "You can't get flustered, you can't get frustrated. You've got to stay the course. That's what we're going to continue to do." Indiana faces elimination after letting a 17-point lead get away in Game 5 and helped Toronto's comeback bid by scoring just nine fourth-quarter points. "Once again, we failed to live up to that moment," All-Star forward Paul George told reporters. "Nine points in the fourth. It's the only thing to look at - nine points in the fourth."

TV: 7:30 p.m. ET, NBATV, ESPNews, TSN (Toronto), FSN Indiana

LINE HISTORY: The Pacers opened as 2.5-point favorites but the public hit the Raptors and the books were forced to bring the line down to -2. The total hit the board at 196 but was dropped to 194.5 by Thursday afternoon. Check out the complete line history here.

ABOUT THE RAPTORS (59-28, 47-40 ATS, 43-43-1 O/U): DeRozan averaged just 13.3 points over the first four games of the series before his breakout game but backcourt mate Kyle Lowry still can't find the mark. Lowry, the All-Star point guard, went 3-for-11 in Game 5 to drop his series shooting percentage to 31.4 and he has shot below 40 percent in each of the five contests. Backup center Bismack Biyombo was a big-time standout in Game 5 with 10 points and 16 rebounds and he is averaging nine boards in the series.

ABOUT THE PACERS (47-40, 44-42-1 ATS, 38-49 O/U): George is averaging 28.8 points in the series after enjoying another superb game with 39 points, eight rebounds and eight assists in Game 5 and was again trying to suppress frustration with some of his teammates. "I think our guys individually know, individually, that they have to bring it," George told reporters. "I'm not about putting guys down or putting teammates down, but individually everybody has to bring it." Shooting guard Monta Ellis is one guy Indiana could use a boost from as he has scored eight or fewer points in each of the past three games while shooting 9-of-26 from the field.

TRENDS:

* Raptors are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 Conference Quarterfinals games.
* Pacers are 17-4 ATS in their last 21 games playing on 2 days rest.
* Under is 7-1 in Raptors last 8 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
* Under is 8-2 in Pacers last 10 home games.
* Underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings.



Miami Heat at Charlotte Hornets (-1.5, 190.5)

Hornets lead series 3-2

The Charlotte Hornets have won three straight games and took full control of the their first-round series against the fourth-seeded Miami Heat by stealing a win on the road on Wednesday. The Hornets have a chance to close out the series and advance to the Eastern Conference semifinals when they host the Heat in Game 6 on Friday.

Charlotte leaned on its backcourt to even the series in Game 4 with a combined 55 points from Kemba Walker and Jeremy Lin but got only 25 points from the two in Game 5 while the frontcourt took control. Courtney Lee was having the worst night of the backcourt quartet before hitting the biggest shot of the game – a 3-pointer with 25.2 seconds left that put the Hornets in front for good. "I was wide open so I just let it fly," Lee told reporters. "If I had to draw it up, I'll take shooting 1-for-8 before I knock down a big shot any day.” The Heat will leave Miami with the same feelings they had after leaving Charlotte following Game 4 as they question the refereeing but the NBA said Thursday that a non-foul on Dwyane Wade with 2.6 seconds left was the correct call.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, ESPN, FSN Sun (Miami)

LINE HISTORY: The Hornets have won three games in a row to take the lead in this series against the Heat and they opened as one-point favorites - the line was bumped slightly to -1.5. The total opened at 192.5 and was dropped a full two points to 190.5. Check out the complete line history here.

ABOUT THE HEAT (50-37, 45-41-1 ATS, 36-50-1 O/U): Miami was dismayed by the whistles blown against them in Game 4 and subtly questioned the disparity in personal foul calls after the game but were more open about things after Game 5. Wade told reporters that he was fouled on the layup attempt that would have tied the game in the final seconds and his wife, actress Gabrielle Union, took to Twitter to advocate for fining the refs. “It hurts losing at home,” Heat coach Eric Spoelstra told reporters. “But welcome to the playoffs. The playoffs just started now. One team beat somebody on the road. Now it gets real. Now we just have to collect ourselves, as raw as it feels right now. We have 48 hours to regroup and get ready for a heck of a battle in Game 6.”

ABOUT THE HORNETS (51-36, 45-41-1 ATS, 42-43-2 O/U): Charlotte doesn’t know what it is going to get out of forward Marvin Williams from game-to-game in the playoffs, but he stepped up with a team-high 17 points on 7-of-10 shooting to go along with eight rebounds and three steals in Game 5. The Hornets changed up the lineup before Game 3 and pushed Al Jefferson into a starting role with fellow center Frank Kaminsky, leaving Williams to do damage on the wing against smaller defenders. Williams went scoreless in 37 minutes in Game 4 and was a combined 1-of-17 in the first two games of the series but put together solid performances in two of the last three to help support Walker, Lin and Lee.

TRENDS:

* Heat are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 road games.
* Home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
* Under is 5-0 in Heat last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
* Over is 4-1 in Hornets last 5 Friday games.



Los Angeles Clippers at Portland Trail Blazers (-10, 198)

Trail Blazers lead series 3-2

The Los Angeles Clippers put together a strong effort without their injured superstars but in the end did not have enough to overcome the Portland Trail Blazers at home in Game 5. The Clippers will try to muster up enough to extend the series when they visit the Trail Blazers in a potential elimination Game 6 on Friday.

Los Angeles lost All-Star point guard Chris Paul (broken hand) and star forward Blake Griffin (quad) for the rest of the postseason in a Game 4 loss and could not find enough offense late to avoid a 108-98 loss at home in Game 5. “(The players) heard the same thing that (the media) said, you know, for 48 hours,” Doc Rivers said. “’Hard game, can they win?’ So, I liked the emotion, but they didn’t sustain it. Like, the pace we played at in the first half was terrific, we just couldn’t sustain the pace.” Portland weathered the early emotional storm from the Clippers and found its stride offensively in the second half, giving itself a chance to close out the series at home. “We want to close the series out,” guard C.J. McCollum told reporters. “We’ve got a unique opportunity here to play an elimination game at home, and we want to make sure we take full advantage of it.”

TV: 10:30 p.m. ET, ESPN, Prime Ticket (Los Angeles), KGW (Portland)

LINE HISTORY: The Blazers opened as 10-point favorites at home in an elimination game and the line has yet to move. The total opened at 197.5 and has also been stationary. Check out the complete line history here.

ABOUT THE CLIPPERS (55-32, 42-42-3 ATS, 35-52 O/U): Future Hall of Famer and former NBA champion Paul Pierce started in place of Griffin and went scoreless in 10 minutes while Sixth Man of the Year Jamal Crawford started in place of Paul in Game 5 and went 6-of-23 from the floor in 44 minutes. “I was a little winded,” Crawford told reporters. “But what can you do at this point? You have to find a way.” Austin Rivers moved into the starting lineup as well but it was J.J. Redick managing a team-high 19 points in the loss while Jeff Green came off the bench to add 17 points in 37 minutes.

ABOUT THE TRAIL BLAZERS (47-40, 47-40 ATS, 45-42 O/U): Portland star guard Damian Lillard was 1-of-10 from the floor in the first three quarters on Wednesday before exploding for 16 points on 6-of-10 shooting in the final period to help put the game away. “I’ve always been able to put the first three quarters behind me and come up big when my team has needed it,” said Lillard. “All my teammates throughout the game, they just kept saying, ‘keep shooting, stay with it, stay aggressive, keep your mind right.’ I would have been doing that all along, but it felt good to have that encouragement and that support. … I just had to be patient.” Lillard finished with 22 points in the win while McCollum matched his series high with 27.

TRENDS:

* Clippers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up loss.
* Trail Blazers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 1 days rest.
* Under is 9-1 in Clippers last 10 games following a double-digit loss at home.
* Under is 6-1 in Trail Blazers last 7 overall.
* Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA
Long Sheet

Friday, April 29

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MIAMI (50 - 37) at CHARLOTTE (51 - 36) - 4/29/2016, 3:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 14-25 ATS (-13.5 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
CHARLOTTE is 15-7 ATS (+7.3 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
CHARLOTTE is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 12-9 against the spread versus CHARLOTTE over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 14-7 straight up against CHARLOTTE over the last 3 seasons
12 of 21 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TORONTO (59 - 28) at INDIANA (47 - 40) - 4/29/2016, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANA is 204-150 ATS (+39.0 Units) on Friday nights since 1996.
INDIANA is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) when playing with 2 days rest this season.
INDIANA is 27-16 ATS (+9.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
TORONTO is 72-48 ATS (+19.2 Units) in a road game where where the total is between 190 and 194.5 points since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 12-4 against the spread versus INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 11-5 straight up against INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
9 of 16 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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LA CLIPPERS (55 - 32) at PORTLAND (47 - 40) - 4/29/2016, 3:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA CLIPPERS are 43-72 ATS (-36.2 Units) as a road underdog of 9.5 to 12 points since 1996.
LA CLIPPERS are 243-296 ATS (-82.6 Units) after allowing 105 points or more since 1996.
LA CLIPPERS are 211-263 ATS (-78.3 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more since 1996.
LA CLIPPERS are 192-253 ATS (-86.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
PORTLAND is 13-2 ATS (+10.8 Units) in a home game where where the total is between 195 and 199.5 points over the last 2 seasons.
LA CLIPPERS are 20-11 ATS (+7.9 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
PORTLAND is 9-7 against the spread versus LA CLIPPERS over the last 3 seasons
LA CLIPPERS is 9-7 straight up against PORTLAND over the last 3 seasons
9 of 16 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NBA
Short Sheet

Friday, April 29

Miami at Charlotte, 3:00 ET
Miami: 46-33 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses
Charlotte: 73-101 ATS after covering 5 or 6 of their last 7

Toronto at Indiana, 8:00 ET
Toronto: 11-23 ATS after a game with 15 or less assists
Charlotte: 22-12 ATS after playing a game as an underdog

LA Clippers at Portland, 3:00 ET
Los Angeles: 4-13 ATS after failing to cover 3 of their last 4
Portland: 15-7 ATS after 2 games giving up 10 or less offensive rebounds




NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Friday, April 29

Indiana-Toronto (T 3-2)
Pacers blew 13-point 4th quarter lead in Game 5; George scored 39 points, but Indiana bench was putrid 6-23 from floor and was -41 in only 77:00 of play. Raptors won nine of last 12 games against Indiana, taking three of last five here (under 4-1). Toronto is 12-3 vs spread in last 15 series games- five of last seven stayed under total. Toronto shot 38.0/36.5% in two losses, 43.8/41.5/40.2% in three wins. Raptors won ten of last 14 games overall, they are 8-4 vs spread in their last 12 games.

Charlotte-Miami (C 3-2)
Charlotte held Miami to 84.3 ppg in winning last three games after Heat had taken 2-0 series lead, scoring 123-115 points. Miami lost three of last four visits here; over is 6-3 in last nine series games. Four Hornet subs who played in Game 5 had a combined +23 plus/minus- Charlotte starters were -13. Seven of nine Hornets who played last game scored between 8-17 points- very balanced. Miami lost four of its last five road games; Charlotte won its last four games at home.

Portland-LA Clippers (P 3-2)
Clippers are without Paul/Griffin for duration of this series; not having Paul is huge. LA lost three of last four visits here, five of last six games in series stayed under total. Trailblazers won ten of their last 14 games overall; eight of their last 11 games stayed under the total. Crawford was 6-23 from floor in Game 5; Rivers was -23 in 37:00, which means the Clippers were +13 in 11:00 with coach's son on the bench. LA scored 84-88 in losses here in series- they need road win to keep season alive.

Playoff tally: Favorites vs spread: 24-15, Over: 12-27




NBA

Friday, April 29

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Trend Report
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7:30 PM
MIAMI vs. CHARLOTTE
Miami is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Miami is 10-5 SU in its last 15 games when playing on the road against Charlotte
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Charlotte's last 9 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Charlotte's last 5 games when playing at home against Miami

8:00 PM
TORONTO vs. INDIANA
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games when playing Indiana
Toronto is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games when playing Indiana
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Indiana's last 7 games
Indiana is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Toronto

10:30 PM
LA CLIPPERS vs. PORTLAND
LA Clippers are 5-12 SU in their last 17 games when playing on the road against Portland
LA Clippers are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Portland's last 6 games when playing LA Clippers
Portland is 12-5 SU in their last 17 games when playing at home against LA Clippers

[StarDust Bum]

NBA
Dunkel

Friday, April 29


Toronto @ Indiana

Game 711-712
April 29, 2016 @ 7:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Toronto
121.066
Indiana
124.826
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Indiana
by 4
190
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Indiana
by 2
195
Dunkel Pick:
Indiana
(-2); Under

Miami @ Charlotte

Game 709-710
April 29, 2016 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Miami
120.664
Charlotte
125.675
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Charlotte
by 5
201
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Charlotte
by 1 1/2
190 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Charlotte
(-1 1/2); Over

LA Clippers @ Portland

Game 715-716
April 29, 2016 @ 10:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Clippers
120.949
Portland
127.449
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Portland
by 6 1/2
194
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Portland
by 10
198
Dunkel Pick:
LA Clippers
(+10); Under

[StarDust Bum]

NBA ATS

NBA > (715) LA CLIPPERS@ (716) PORTLAND | 2016-04-29 22:35:00 - 2016-04-29 22:35:00
Play ON PORTLAND against the spread in All games in a home game where where the total is between 195 and 199.5 points
The record is 17 Wins and 3 Losses for the last three seasons (+13.7 units)

NBA > (709) MIAMI@ (710) CHARLOTTE | 2016-04-29 20:05:00 - 2016-04-29 20:05:00
Play ON CHARLOTTE against the spread in Home games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season
The record is 23 Wins and 7 Losses for the last three seasons (+15.3 units)

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NBA MONEYLINE

NBA > (715) LA CLIPPERS@ (716) PORTLAND | 2016-04-29 22:35:00 - 2016-04-29 22:35:00
Play ON PORTLAND using money line in Home games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game
The record is 37 Wins and 12 Losses for the last two seasons (+22.75 units)

NBA > (715) LA CLIPPERS@ (716) PORTLAND | 2016-04-29 22:35:00 - 2016-04-29 22:35:00
Play ON PORTLAND using money line in All games in home games
The record is 28 Wins and 13 Losses for the this season (+16.45 units)

NBA > (709) MIAMI@ (710) CHARLOTTE | 2016-04-29 20:05:00 - 2016-04-29 20:05:00
Play ON CHARLOTTE using money line in All games second half of the season
The record is 26 Wins and 11 Losses for the this season (+14.55 units)

NBA > (711) TORONTO@ (712) INDIANA | 2016-04-29 19:35:00 - 2016-04-29 19:35:00
Play ON TORONTO using money line in All games when playing against a team with a winning record
The record is 29 Wins and 14 Losses for the this season (+15 units)

NBA > (709) MIAMI@ (710) CHARLOTTE | 2016-04-29 20:05:00 - 2016-04-29 20:05:00
Play ON MIAMI using money line in Road games after 3 or more consecutive unders
The record is 12 Wins and 6 Losses for the last two seasons (+15.05 units)

NBA > (709) MIAMI@ (710) CHARLOTTE | 2016-04-29 15:00:00 - 2016-04-29 15:00:00
Play ON CHARLOTTE using money line in Home games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season
The record is 8 Wins and 1 Losses for the this season (+8.75 units)

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NBA FIRST HALF

NBA > (715) LA CLIPPERS@ (716) PORTLAND | 2016-04-29 22:35:00 - 2016-04-29 22:35:00
Play ON PORTLAND ?>in the first halfin Home games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season
The record is 22 Wins and 7 Losses for the last two seasons (+14.3 units)

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NBA TOTALS

NBA > (715) LA CLIPPERS@ (716) PORTLAND | 2016-04-29 22:35:00 - 2016-04-29 22:35:00
Play UNDER LA CLIPPERS on the totalin All games against Northwest division opponents
The record is 5 Overs and 18 Unders for the this season (+12.5 units)

NBA > (715) LA CLIPPERS@ (716) PORTLAND | 2016-04-29 15:00:00 - 2016-04-29 15:00:00
Play UNDER LA CLIPPERS on the totalin All games second half of the season
The record is 11 Overs and 26 Unders for the this season (+13.9 units)

NBA > (709) MIAMI@ (710) CHARLOTTE | 2016-04-29 20:05:00 - 2016-04-29 20:05:00
Play UNDER MIAMI on the totalin Road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game
The record is 16 Overs and 36 Unders for the last two seasons (+18.4 units)

NBA > (709) MIAMI@ (710) CHARLOTTE | 2016-04-29 20:05:00 - 2016-04-29 20:05:00
Play UNDER MIAMI on the totalin Road games revenging a loss vs opponent
The record is 11 Overs and 28 Unders for the last two seasons (+15.9 units)

NBA > (715) LA CLIPPERS@ (716) PORTLAND | 2016-04-29 22:35:00 - 2016-04-29 22:35:00
Play OVER PORTLAND on the totalin All games as a favorite vs. the 1rst half line
The record is 28 Overs and 13 Unders for the this season (+13.7 units)

[StarDust Bum]

4/28 - 1 - 1
Overall - 41 - 39

FRIDAY, APRIL 29

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


TOR at IND 07:30 PM

IND -1.5

U 194.0


MIA at CHA 08:00 PM

MIA +2.0

O 192.5


LAC at POR 10:30 PM

POR -10.0

U 199.0

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Saturday's six-pack

-- Luke Walton is the new coach of the Los Angeles Lakers.

-- Portland 106, Clippers 103-- Blazers move on to face Golden State next.

-- Washington Redskins started 11 different defensive backs LY, most in NFL.

-- 10 of the first 94 players drafted this week played ball at Ohio State.

-- In 1979, the Kansas City Royals drafted Dan Marino in the 5th round, John Elway in the 18th round; if only the Chiefs could draft so well.

-- Skip Bayless is getting $5.5M a year for four years from FS1, with a $4M bonus to sign. What a country.

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Armadillo: Saturday's List of 13: Random stuff with weekend here........

13) Four quarterbacks drafted in rounds 2-3 won Super Bowls with the team that drafted them: Stabler-Wilson-Hostetler-Montana.

12) 22 defensive players were taken in the second round last night, a record.

11) Bill O'Brien coached Penn State rookie QB Christian Hackenberg for a year before he bolted to coach in the NFL; if O'Brien's Texans didn't want him, why should any other NFL team draft him? Friend of mine who is an expert on the quarterback position doesn't like Hackenberg at all.

10) Michigan State QB Connor Cook went 34-5 as a starter for the Spartans, but he wasn't elected as a captain by his teammates senior year, which has become a thing, as far as Cook being drafted by the NFL.

He wasn't taken n the first three round of the draft, while NC State's Jacoby Brissett and USC's Cody Kessler were both drafted Friday night, and neither is considered as good a player as Cook. .

If you read between the lines during the draft broadcasts on TV, not being a captain is somehow an indictment of Cook, but no one will say exactly what it is/was that made teammates not vote for him as a captain.

9) One good thing about the three-day NFL Draft; lot more trades the second day, as teams reconsider their positions after the first round.

8) I saw Urban Meyer smile last night!!! He is a smart guy, a great coach, but when he was doing college games on ESPN I actually felt bad for him because he seemed so completely humorless. He was on the NFL Network last night during the draft and was good.

7) Scheduling oddity; Baltimore Ravens play the Giants in Swamp Stadium in Week 6, then return to Jersey the next week and play the Jets in Week 7.

6) Watching Braves-Cubs yesterday, Atlanta announcer Joe Simpson was just killing umpire CB Bucknor, who is widely regarded as the worst umpire in the major leagues. I've always read that Bucknor is (relatively) better behind the plate than on the bases, but Simpson was shredding his mechanics of setting ip to call a pitch. Bucknor's been around for a while; he's not going anywhere.

5) UNLV had a horrific basketball season this year; the players/coaches have scattered quickly in many different directions since.

-- Only four players from last year's team will be back next year.
-- Former head coach Dave Rice is now an assistant at Nevada.
-- Forner interim coach Todd Simon is now head coach at Southern Utah.
-- Former assistant coach Ryan Miller is now an assistant at TCU.
-- Forner assistant Max Good is now head coach at Pratt CC in Kansas.
-- Chris Beard was the head coach for 6-7 days this spring, but quickly bolted for Texas Tech after Tubby Smith went to Memphis.

4) Sam Bradford wants the Eagles to trade him, but not to the 49ers; sounds like he and Chip Kelly didn't get along so well.

3) Tampa Bay Buccaneera traded up to draft a kicker in the second round; Florida State's Roberto Aguayo (pick #50), the highest-drafted kicker since the Jets took Mike Nugent with the 47th pick in 2005.

2) You have to root for former Arkansas QB Brandon Allen; kid had his car egged by miserable Arkansas fans after a loss few years ago, then someone torched his truck the next year, and that was before the season started. Allen hasn't been drafted yet; we wish him well in the pros, where fans might not take things as seriously as fans in the SEC take their college ball.

1) Baltimore Ravens have five 4th-round draft picks today. Five.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA

Saturday, April 30

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NBA playoffs betting preview and odds: Thunder at Spurs
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The Spurs open as 6-point home faves over the Thunder in Game 1 of the marquee series of the second round.

Oklahoma City Thunder at San Antonio Spurs (-6, 200.5)

The matchup between All-Star forwards Kevin Durant of Oklahoma City and Kawhi Leonard of San Antonio has the potential to be the series-deciding element as the Thunder and Spurs collide in the Western Conference semifinals. The teams open the series on Saturday in San Antonio and Leonard, the two-time NBA Defensive Player of the Year, will be assigned to slow down and frustrate Durant.

Durant averaged 26 points as Oklahoma City defeated Dallas in five games in the opening round but his shooting was subpar at 36.8 percent from the field and 26.8 percent from 3-point range. Leonard averaged fewer points (21.5) during San Antonio's first-round sweep of Dallas but he shot 52.7 percent from the field - including a torrid 61.1 from 3-point range - while contributing 2.8 blocked shots and 2.8 steals. "He's grown so much," Durant told reporters of Leonard. "He's probably the best in the league at shooting the mid-range off the dribble. Can post up, dribble, shoot the 3, catch and shoot. Their team, their system, their continuity and how they move allows him to get free a lot of times and utilize his game." This will be the third time in five seasons that the teams have met in the playoffs - the Thunder won in six games in 2012 to reach the NBA Finals and the Spurs' six-game series victory in 2014 also advanced them to the NBA Finals.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, TNT

LINE HISTORY: The Spurs opened Game 1 as 6-point home favorites over the Thunder, were shortly bet up to -6.5, but have since moved back to the opening number. The total meanwhile, has seen considerable movement. It has been bet down two and a half points from 203 to the current number of 200.5. Check out the complete line history here.

ABOUT THE THUNDER (59-28, 40-46-1 ATS, 42-45 O/U): Oklahoma City's four victories in the Dallas series were by an average of 23 points and point guard Russell Westbrook was in top form with five double-doubles - three points-assists and two points-rebounds - while averaging 26 points, 11.2 assists and 7.2 rebounds. "He's got a lot of energy, he's super aggressive and obviously one of the best point guards in the league," Spurs point guard Tony Parker told reporters. "It's just fun to play against him. He brings a lot of excitement to the game. It's always a great matchup." The Thunder would like to see more consistency from backup center Enes Kanter, who had outings of 28 and 21 points against Dallas and scored six or fewer points in two others.

ABOUT THE SPURS (71-15, 47-39 ATS, 36-48-2 O/U): San Antonio won its games against Memphis by an average of 22 points and looked well-oiled with three of the four victories occurring by more than 20 points. Leonard and power forward LaMarcus Aldridge (14.5 average against the Grizzlies) are the offensive mainstays and old playoff stalwarts like center Tim Duncan, shooting guard Manu Ginobili and Parker have accepted lesser roles. "You've got to play both ends of the floor a little differently because he's an All-Star player," Durant said of Aldridge. "He's a guy that can shoot over any shoulder, he can shoot from range, he can roll to the rim, so it's a different dynamic when you play a guy like that, and that's when you've got to be locked in and ready for anything."

TRENDS:

* Thunder are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.
* Spurs are 0-6 ATS in their last six versus Northwest Division opponents.
* Under is 4-0 in Spurs last four home games.
* Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings.

CONSENSUS: The early consensus has 54 percent of bettors backing the home side Spurs. When it comes to the total, 65 percent of wagers are on the over.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA
Long Sheet

Saturday, April 30

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OKLAHOMA CITY (59 - 28) at SAN ANTONIO (71 - 15) - 4/30/2016, 9:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 38-46 ATS (-12.6 Units) in all games this season.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 33-48 ATS (-19.8 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 24-33 ATS (-12.3 Units) after scoring 105 points or more this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 47-39 ATS (+4.1 Units) in all games this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 46-34 ATS (+8.6 Units) as a favorite this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 141-106 ATS (+24.4 Units) as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 486-402 ATS (+43.8 Units) in home games since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 76-49 ATS (+22.1 Units) in home games in all playoff games since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 197-151 ATS (+30.9 Units) in home games after a win by 10 points or more since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 284-230 ATS (+31.0 Units) after scoring 105 points or more since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 270-223 ATS (+24.7 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 171-124 ATS (+34.6 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 70-54 ATS (+10.6 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 154-113 ATS (+29.7 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
OKLAHOMA CITY is 11-6 against the spread versus SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons
OKLAHOMA CITY is 9-8 straight up against SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons
10 of 17 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NBA
Short Sheet

Saturday, April 30

Oklahoma City at San Antonio, 9:35 ET
Oklahoma City: 3-13 ATS on road after playing 5 consecutive games as favorite
San Antonio: 41-33 ATS after playing 2 consecutive games as favorite




NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Saturday, April 30

San Antonio won six of last nine games with Oklahoma City, winning last three played here, by 4-8-39 points. Four of last five series games stayed under the total. Thunder beat Dallas in five games, scoring 116.0 ppg in winning last three games- they had lost last three road games in a row but won swept pair at Dallas. Spurs won last six games, sweeping a depleted Memphis squad four straight, with 96-87 closest of the four.

Playoff tally: Favorites vs spread: 25-17, Over: 13-29




NBA

Saturday, April 30

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Trend Report
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8:30 PM
OKLAHOMA CITY vs. SAN ANTONIO
Oklahoma City is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing San Antonio
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Oklahoma City's last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Antonio's last 5 games when playing Oklahoma City
San Antonio is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Oklahoma City

[StarDust Bum]

NBA
Dunkel

Saturday, April 30


Oklahoma City @ San Antonio

Game 501-502
April 30, 2016 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Oklahoma City
120.968
San Antonio
130.003
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Antonio
by 9
195
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Antonio
by 6 1/2
201
Dunkel Pick:
San Antonio
(-6 1/2); Under

[StarDust Bum]

Game 1 - Thunder at Spurs
April 29, 2016

(3) Thunder at (2) Spurs – 8:35 PM EST – TNT

2015-16 Meetings
Oct. 28, 2015 – San Antonio 106 at Oklahoma City 112 (Thunder -4, Over 207.5)
Mar. 12, 2016 – Oklahoma City 85 at San Antonio 93 (Thunder +8.5, Under 211.5)
Mar. 26, 2016 – San Antonio 92 at Oklahoma City 111 (Thunder -12.5, Under 207)
Apr. 12, 2016 – Oklahoma City 98 at San Antonio 102 – OT (Thunder +13, Under 203)

The two teams chasing down Golden State for the crown in the Western Conference begin their highly-anticipated series on Saturday night from AT&T Center in San Antonio. The Spurs are back in the second round for the fourth time in five seasons after getting knocked by the Clippers in an epic seven-game opening round series in 2015. For the fifth time in six seasons, the Thunder have reached the conference semifinals, as OKC is seeking its fourth conference final appearance since 2011.

San Antonio (71-15 SU, 47-39 ATS) cruised to a first round sweep of an undermanned Memphis squad in the opening round. The Spurs didn’t allow more than 95 points in any of the four victories against the Grizzlies, while three of those wins came by 21 points or more. Gregg Popovich’s squad covered in three of four contests, as the Spurs completed the total season sweep of Memphis by going 8-0 SU and 6-2 ATS in eight matchups.

The Thunder (59-28 SU, 40-46-1 ATS) finished off the Mavericks in five games of the conference quarterfinals, as all four victories came in blowout fashion. For the exception of a slip-up in a Game 2 loss as 14-point favorites, Billy Donovan’s club dominated in this series, while pulling away in the series clincher, 118-104, the third straight game in which the Thunder scored at least 118 points. The final three contests finished ‘over’ the total, while both Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook each averaged 26.0 points per game in the series.

The home team won all four meetings this season, with three of the matchups taking place in the last six weeks. Oklahoma City held off San Antonio on opening night to win Donovan’s debut as head coach, 112-106 as four-point home favorites. The Thunder outscored the Spurs in the final quarter, 33-23, as Westbrook led the way for OKC with 33 points and 10 assists, while Durant scored 22 points on 6-of-19 shooting. Kawhi Leonard paced the Spurs by scoring 32 points on 13-of-22 shooting, while LaMarcus Aldridge struggled in his San Antonio debut by shooting 4-of-12 from the floor for 11 points.

In their next matchup on March 12 at the AT&T Center, the Spurs rallied for a 93-85 victory as San Antonio limited OKC to 36 points in the second half. The Thunder were limited to 38% shooting as Durant and Westbrook combined to make 16-of-41 attempts from the floor, while the team knocked down only 2-of-18 shots from three-point range. San Antonio didn’t perform better from downtown by hitting 4-of-24 attempts from long range, while the Spurs won in spite of their starting backcourt of Danny Green and Tony Parker scoring nine points on 1-of-14 shooting.

The final two meetings weren’t fair assessments as important players on each side rested. On March 26 in Oklahoma City, the Spurs sat Parker, Aldridge, Leonard, and Tim Duncan as the Thunder ripped the Spurs, 111-92 to easily cash as 12 ½-point favorites. In the last matchup in San Antonio on April 12, the Spurs held off the Thunder in overtime, 102-98. Oklahoma City covered as 13-point underdogs in spite of Durant and Westbrook sitting out, as the Thunder finished with a perfect 4-0 ATS record against San Antonio this season.

San Antonio and Oklahoma City have turned into postseason rivals over the last few seasons, as the two teams met for the Western Conference championship in 2012 and 2014. The Thunder erased a 2-0 series deficit to beat the Spurs in four straight games to capture the franchise’s first conference title in Oklahoma City back in 2012 before OKC lost in five games of the NBA Finals to Miami. The Spurs picked up revenge two seasons later by eliminating the Thunder in six games of the Western finals, while closing out the series in overtime at Chesapeake Energy Arena.

The Thunder haven’t had much luck at the AT&T Center in the postseason by compiling a 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS record in the last six playoff games at San Antonio. In the 2014 conference finals, the Spurs wiped out the Thunder in all three home contests with the margin of victory being 17, 35, and 28 points. Oklahoma City took care of its business at home in the last two series against San Antonio by winning and covering five of six games, including the series clincher in Game 6 of the 2012 conference finals.

VegasInsider.com editorial director and NBA expert Chris David provides some interesting notes on Oklahoma City in the underdog role, “The Thunder have been installed as an underdog 11 times this season and they went 1-10 in those games. Coincidentally, the lone win came at Utah and the only reason Oklahoma City was an underdog is because Durant was a game-time decision and he was inserted into the starting lineup late. In the 10 losses, OKC was 3-6-1 ATS (33%) and that number right there could have you buying the Spurs.”

The Spurs lost only one home game this season and David doesn’t see San Antonio slowing up at the Alamo, “Another reason to back San Antonio in Game 1 is based on its success at home in the playoffs. The club has gone 23-7 SU and 19-11 ATS in its last 30 games at the AT&T Center and that includes a run of 13 straight wins in the series opener at home. The last time San Antonio dropped its first home game in a playoff series came in the 2011 NBA Playoffs when Memphis knocked them out in six games of their first round series.”

From a totals perspective, David points out that the contrasting styles complicate things for bettors, “The total for Game 1 opened 202 ½ and early action has dropped the number as low as 200 ½ at a few major offshore shops. Similar to analyzing the side, your decision for the total on this matchup will come down to the Spurs top-ranked defense (92.3 PPG) against the second best offense in Oklahoma City (110.3 PPG).”

So what will prevail? “The ‘under’ went 3-1 in the four regular season matchups between the pair and in the lone meaningful game in San Antonio, the Spurs captured an ugly 93-85 win. Including two easy winners in the first round versus Memphis, the Spurs have watched the ‘under’ go 8-2 in their last 10 home playoff games. In the 2014 playoff matchup between OKC and San Antonio, the ‘under’ went 4-2 with totals ranging from 206 ½ to 210,” David notes.

According to Sportsbook.ag, the Spurs are listed as a -270 favorite to advance to the Western Conference finals (Bet $270 to win $100). The Thunder have proven in the past that they can rebound from an early series deficit against the Spurs, as Oklahoma City enters this series at +225 to knock out San Antonio (Bet $100 to win $225). San Antonio is right behind Golden State for the top spot to win the NBA championship at Sportsbook.ag, as the Spurs enter this round at 2/1 odds to capture their sixth title in franchise history.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA MONEYLINE

NBA > (501) OKLAHOMA CITY@ (502) SAN ANTONIO | 2016-04-30 21:35:00 - 2016-04-30 21:35:00
Play ON SAN ANTONIO using money line in Home games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game
The record is 20 Wins and 1 Losses for the this season (+18.35 units)

NBA > (501) OKLAHOMA CITY@ (502) SAN ANTONIO | 2016-04-30 21:35:00 - 2016-04-30 21:35:00
Play ON SAN ANTONIO using money line in Home games when playing against a team with a winning record
The record is 18 Wins and 1 Losses for the this season (+16.35 units)

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NBA TOTALS

NBA > (501) OKLAHOMA CITY@ (502) SAN ANTONIO | 2016-04-30 21:35:00 - 2016-04-30 21:35:00
Play UNDER SAN ANTONIO on the totalin All games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game
The record is 39 Overs and 85 Unders for the last two seasons (+42.1 units)

NBA > (501) OKLAHOMA CITY@ (502) SAN ANTONIO | 2016-04-30 21:35:00 - 2016-04-30 21:35:00
Play UNDER SAN ANTONIO on the totalin All games after 3 or more consecutive wins
The record is 32 Overs and 75 Unders for the last three seasons (+39.8 units)

[StarDust Bum]

SATURDAY, APRIL 30

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

OKC at SA 08:30 PM

SA -6.5

U 200.0

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Sunday's six-pack

-- SEC had the most players drafted (50) this week, followed by the Big 14 (48), Pac 12 (32) and ACC (26). 26 non-Division I players were also drafted.

-- Ohio State had most players (12) drafted, followed by Clemson (9).

-- 107 kids left school early for the draft; 30 of them were not drafted.

-- Florida State had only two players drafted; in the previous three drafts, they had 29 players selected.

-- Over last five years, Stanford had 24 kids drafted, most of any Pac-12 school.

-- Brian Hoyer signed on as a backup QB with the Chicago Bears.

**********

Armadillo: Sunday's List of 13: Wrapping up a sports Saturday......

13) Coaching is a tough profession. Anaheim Ducks fired Bruce Boudreau this weekend, despite his 208-104 record in five years with the Ducks. Lot of teams would sell their souls to win 2/3 of their games, but Anaheim wanted more.

Why did the Ducks pull the plug on Boudreau? Well, his playoff record is only 24-19 with Anaheim, 41-39 overall and it is winning the Stanley Cup that is expected when you have great success in the regular season.

12) One parallel from another sport that comes to mind is Chuck Knox in the NFL; he went 186-147-1 as an NFL head coach, but was only 7-11 in playoff games and does not get enough credit for how good a coach he was because of his playoff record.

11) This will sound hokey, but NFL teams value things like loyalty when it comes to drafting players. QB Vernon Adams bolted I-AA Eastern Washington before his senior year to play at Oregon, because he thought playing in the Pac-12 would help his draft status. Well the draft just happened and Adams wasn't drafted- he got hurt at Oregon, missed about half the season- not good.

Meanwhile, the second pick in the draft this weekend was Carson Wentz, who played at I-AA power North Dakota State- they won the national title. Had Adams stayed at Eastern Washington and played well, he might've been drafted this weekend.

10) Chiefs drafted Stanford QB Kevin Hogan; the last time KC won a game where their QB was a guy they drafted was 1987, when Todd Blackledge played QB.

9) Seattle Seahawks drafted three RBs; Marshawn Lynch will be tough to replace.

8) Chris Fallica points out on Twitter that Tennessee and North Carolina should be really good this fall; Vols won nine games LY, UNC won 11 games and neither team had a player drafted this weekend, so they've got lot of talent coming back.

7) Chicago White Sox are 17-8, 8-1 in games where winning run scores from the 7th inning on; Orioles are 14-9, 7-2 in games decided late.

6) Atlanta Braves moved both their prize shortstop prospects up a level this week, Ozzie Albies to AAA, Dansby Swanson to AA. With parent club floundering with a 5-18 record, promoting their prospects is only way to keep their fans' hopes up.

5) Yoenis Cespedes drove in six runs in third inning Friday night; last big leaguer to knock in 7+ runs in one inning is Alex rodriguez, who did that on October 4, 2009.

4) Milwaukee Brewers got a double leading off bottom of the first inning last night; the next hitter bunted the guy over to third. Why? Why in God's name would you make the first out of the game on purpose? You have your best hitters up, maybe the other pitcher is having an off night and you give him his first out? I disagree with that.

3) As for kids who leave college early and do not get invited to the NBA Combine, you damn well better go back to school and get better; lot of kids I've seen get invited to the Combine who have a minimal chance to make the league next year, so if you're not even invited to go there, thats all the info you need about your pro prospects.

2) Spurs 124, Thunder 92-- Am curious to see how the Thunder competes in Game 2, because they did not offer much resistence in this game.

1) Red Sox 8, Bronx 0-- How does Bronx GM Brian Cashman keep his job? Team he has put on the field this season is dreadful, an aging roster of overpaid players who are 8-14 right now and figure to get worse when the schedule gets heavier and their lack of starting pitching depth is further exposed.

Their Opening Day payroll? $225,997,792-- they're already on the hook for $103M in 2018, just for seven guys.