The Bum's National Basketball League Apri's Picks/Trends/News Thru the Playoffs !!

[StarDust Bum]

Friday's Playoff Action
May 13, 2016


TORONTO RAPTORS (63-31) at MIAMI HEAT (54-40)

Eastern Conference – Round 2
Tip-off: Friday, 8:00 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Miami -4, Total: 189

The Raptors will be looking to advance to the Eastern Conference Finals with a road victory over the Heat in Game 6 on Friday.

Toronto dominated the first half of Game 5 against Miami, but the Heat came roaring back in the second half and eventually made it a one-point game in the fourth quarter. The Raptors were, however, able to clamp down and win the game 99-91 as 4.5-point home favorites.

They’re now one victory away from advancing to the next round. One thing that can help them win this pivotal Game 6 is taking care of the ball. Toronto committed just nine turnovers in Game 5 and doing that again would come a long way in earning a victory on Friday.

One thing that looks good for Toronto coming into this game is that Miami is 54-73 ATS after one or more consecutive OVERS over the past three seasons. The Heat are, however, 17-8 ATS after having lost two of their past three games this season.

C Jonas Valanciunas (Ankle) remains out indefinitely for the Raptors and C Hassan Whiteside (Knee) is out indefinitely for the Heat, who are already without PF Chris Bosh (Blood Clot) for the season.

The Raptors are coming off of a big victory in Game 5 and they will be feeling confident coming into Game 6, as PG Kyle Lowry (15.8 PPG, 6.8 APG, 1.9 SPG in playoffs) and SG DeMar DeRozan (19.1 PPG, 1.4 SPG in playoffs) finally showed up together last game.

Lowry finished Game 5 with 25 points, 10 boards, six assists and three steals in 41 minutes of action. He also hit a number of clutch shots in the fourth quarter.

DeRozan, meanwhile, had 34 points on 11-for-22 shooting from the field. He was playing that game with an injured thumb, but it did not end up hurting him. Toronto will need both of them to continue to knock down shots moving forward.

Another guy that must play well for the Raptors is C Bismack Biyombo (5.3 PPG, 8.0 RPG, 1.0 BPG in playoffs). Biyombo came up huge in Game 5, finishing with 10 points, six boards and four blocks in 38 minutes of action.

He was playing very well around the basket on both ends of the floor and must continue to be active the remainder of this series.

If the Heat are going to force a Game 7 then SG Dwyane Wade (21.8 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 4.3 APG in playoffs) is going to need to come up huge. Wade had just 20 points on 14 shot attempts in Game 5 and Miami needs him to be a lot more aggressive on Friday.

Wade averaged 34.0 PPG in the previous two contests and it’s going to take that type of performance for the Heat to win on Friday.

Another guy that must come to play for Miami is PG Goran Dragic (15.4 PPG in playoffs). Dragic had just 13 points on 6-for-14 shooting from the floor in Game 5 and Miami needs him to score around 20 in this one.

With the big men injured for both teams, this series has come down to a battle between backcourts and Dragic needs to be more effective moving forward.

[StarDust Bum]

Game 6 - Raptors at Heat
May 12, 2016

Editor's note: Brian Edwards owns an 18-11 record (62%, +6 units) in the NBA Playoffs since April 25. Even better, he's cashed 11 of his last 15 guaranteed plays, including an easy winner on the Spurs-Thunder 'over' last night! Don't miss out on tonight's pay-if-it-wins-only selection!

Toronto (63-31 straight up, 49-45 against the spread) took a 3-2 series advantage with Wednesday’s Game 5 win to set up Friday’s close-out game at Miami in the Eastern Conference semifinals. The Raptors captured a 99-91 victory as five-point home favorites, pulling away in the final 1:32 with an 11-4 run.

Dwane Casey’s club led by as many as 20 late in the second quarter, but Miami went on a 10-0 run in the final 3:08 of the first half to pull to within 55-45 at intermission. Nevertheless, Toronto easily hooked up its betting supporters for first-quarter (-1.5) and first-half wagers (-2.5). The 100 combined points jumped ‘over’ the 94.5-point first-half total.

Miami (54-40 SU, 50-43-1 ATS) trailed by 15 when Terrence Ross made a driving layup to start the fourth quarter, but it quickly responded with a 7-0 run behind a pair of buckets from Joe Johnson and a 3-ball from rookie Josh Richardson out of the University of Tennessee.

Toronto’s lead ballooned to 13 on a 3-point play the hard way by DeMar DeRozan with 8:33 remaining. However, Richardson answered with back-to-back triples to put Miami back within striking distance. Down seven with 3:02 left, the Heat went on a 6-0 run thanks to consecutive baskets from Johnson and a pair of free throws from Dwyane Wade with 1:54 remaining.

DeRozan hit two free throws to push the lead back to three and then Miami’s Goran Dragic committed a costly turnover. For most of the playoffs, especially at crunch time, Toronto has had way-too-many possessions in which it fails to get any movement on offense and is left to force a low-percentage shot just before the shot-clock buzzer.

On Wednesday night, though, Kyle Lowry made things happen late in the shot clock. With a 90-87 advantage at the 52-second mark, the Villanova product drained an audacious stepback 3-pointer that inserted the dagger into the Heat’s Game 5 comeback hopes.

At this point, the outright victory was nearly sealed, but nothing was settled whatsoever in terms of the spread cover and the total. Ahead of the number by merely one point, Toronto allowed Wade to get a quick basket to make it 93-89 with 46 ticks left. But again, Lowry turned what appeared to be an ugly possession into gold when he penetrated late in the shot clock and buried a fadeaway jumper from the baseline.

After a timeout gave Miami the ball at halfcourt, Wade needed only two seconds to make a layup to cut the deficit to 95-91 with 21 seconds remaining. The Heat had to foul right away and DeRozan hit a pair of free throws to get the Raptors back ahead of the spread by one point. Also, the total, which closed at 189 at many books, was still on the line with the combined score at 188.

Wade missed a 3-pointer and Miami fouled again with nine seconds left. With gamblers on the total cringing over the result of the looming free throws, DeRozan knocked down both attempts from the stripe to make the ‘over’ a winner.

Game 2 also went ‘over’ the tally, but only because of overtime. Though Game 5 was at a rate to go ‘over’ for most of the night, the 177 combined points with 52 seconds remaining had ‘under’ supporters liking their chances. In other words, the ‘under’ could easily be 5-0 in the series so far. Instead, it’s just 3-2.

For Friday’s Game 5 at American Airlines Arena, the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas opened Miami as a 4.5-point home ‘chalk’ with a total of 190.5 points. By Thursday night, however, the Heat were favored by four points and the total was adjusted to 189.5. Miami was -180 on the money line, leaving the Raptors at +160 on the comeback (risk $100 to win $160). The Heat was favored by 2.5 points for first-half wagers.

VegasInsider.com’s Chris David offered these thoughts on Game 5: “From a betting perspective, every game in this series has been a toss-up and there hasn’t been any wire-to-wire outcomes. I believe bettors are going to be in for another long night on Friday and you could argue for both sides and totals in Game 6. While Miami is banged up, I haven’t seen enough from Toronto to make a case for them to close out this series on the road. Since the Raptors came back into the playoff scene a couple of years ago, the team has built 3-2 leads twice and they failed to close out those series on the road. Toronto lost to Brooklyn in 2014 and in this year’s first round to Indiana and both losses were by double digits.”

David continued, “Looking at this year’s postseason, favorites have gone 49-13 straight up and they’ve covered 77 percent (38-24 ATS) of those games. Miami has helped that record, going 4-2 as a favorite in this year’s postseason but the kicker is that the Heat have covered all four of its victories. Instead of betting the Game 6 side or total on Friday, I would suggest taking Miami on the adjusted series price. The Heat are listed as high as a 3/1 underdog to win the next two games and if they can force a Game 7, then you can always get out of your bet with a hedge on Toronto.”

Both teams sustained key injuries in Game 5. Miami’s Luol Deng and Toronto’s DeMarre Carroll suffered wrist injuries, but MRI results for both players came back negative. They have both been upgraded to ‘probable,’ but whether either player will be effective is a major question mark.

Both teams are already missing their starting centers. Toronto’s Jonas Valanciunas had recorded four straight double-doubles before spraining his ankle in Game 3. He is out for the rest of the series. Miami’s Hassan Whiteside, who led the NBA with 3.7 blocked shots per game during the regular season, is ‘out’ for Game 6 with a knee injury. His status for a potential Game 7 back in Toronto remains in doubt.

Miami is 32-15 SU and 27-19 ATS at home, going 10-2 both SU and ATS in its last 12 at the Triple-A.

Toronto has posted a 25-20 SU record and a 24-21 ATS mark on the road this season. The Raptors are 2-3 both SU and ATS in five postseason road assignments so far.

The ‘under’ is on a 10-3 run in Toronto’s last 13 games. The Raptors have watched the ‘under’ go 48-45-1 overall, 26-19-1 in their road contests. They have seen the ‘under’ cash in eight consecutive road games.

The ‘under’ has cashed at an 8-2 clip in Miami’s last 10 outings. The Heat has seen the ‘under’ go 55-38-1 overall, 28-19 in its home contests.

Tip-off is scheduled for Friday night at 8:05 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

**B.E.'s Bonus Nuggets**

-- I'm not so convinced like many seem to be that Tim Duncan is going to retire. But if he is, the greatest power forward in NBA history went out in style last night. He had struggled the entire series, scoring just 17 combined points in the first five games. But the 40-year-old Duncan was pivotal in the Spurs getting back to within spitting distance (11) after trailing by 24 at intermission. The Wake Forest product finished with 19 points and five rebounds and had a team-best plus-minus rating of +13.

-- OKC advanced to the Western Conference finals with a 113-99 win in a pick 'em affair. The 212 combined points soared 'over' the total that closed at 198.5. The tally moved up after being 195.5 early Thursday morning.

-- Kevin Durant was the catalyst for the Thunder in the deciding Game 6, scoring 37 points and grabbing nine rebounds. Russell Westbrook produced 28 points, 12 assists, three rebounds and a pair of steals. Steven Adams had a double-double with 15 points and 11 boards.

-- As of Friday morning, Sportsbook.ag had the Warriors listed as 7.5-point favorite for Game 1 vs. OKC. The total was 231.5 points.

-- I'm a few days late on this, but huge props to the Portland Trail Blazers. They may have lost to the Warriors in five games, but you won't ever watch a more competitive five-game series. Terry Stotts's team led for the majority of Games 2, 4 and 5 before getting outplayed at crunch time. The front office did a sensational job of re-tooling the roster after losing four starters, building around one of the NBA's best point guards in Damian Lillard. C.J. McCollum and Lillard compose the second-best backcourt in the league behind only the combination of Golden State's Steph Curry and Klay Thompson. The Blazers will be a major factor in the West next season.

-- I can't believe I'm writing (or even thinking) this. In fact, this notion had never even occurred to me until late in Game 5 of Golden St.'s come-from-behind home win over Portland earlier this week. And to be clear, I'm not stating it as fact by any means. But I'm starting to think that Curry might (maybe!) be entering the Michael Jordan Stratosphere of domination. Obviously, he has to win many more rings for this to even be a discussion, but that looks quite possible in the coming years. And if he can get his team to the Finals (going through the Durant-Westbrook combo) and then beat LeBron and the Cavs for a second straight year by ripping those teams up, he'll be well on his way while entering the prime of his career. Now obviously, Curry has to stay healthy, etc., etc. But if you don't think his performances, especially at winning time, in Games 4 and 5 against Portland were on a level of greatness comparable to MJ, then you just weren't paying attention. We'll get back to this thought process in the coming weeks (and years). It might prove to be an outrageous reach, or it might be legit. We shall see....

[StarDust Bum]

Perfect Cavs see 2-to-1 title odds
May 12, 2016

“Fo-fo-fo-fo” isn’t a giant’s cry. Well, actually that’s not true at all. It’s quite literally what it is, but didn’t come from anyone green or fictional.

“Fo-fo-fo” was how Moses Malone boastfully proclaimed his 76ers would get through the 1983 postseason. He was off by a game, as Philadelphia ended up going 12-1, dropping a game against Milwaukee in the Eastern Conference finals prior to sweeping the Lakers for the title. Winning 92 percent of their games trumps the 1988-89 Pistons for top winning percentage in NBA playoff history, a number that can only be bested by going perfect of suffering a single loss since 16 wins are now required to win a championship.

Although the NBA’s revamped playoff system has added another “fo” to the mix, Malone’s the sentiment remains the same. Sweep every series. Brooms to rings. The Cleveland Cavaliers are halfway there.

There were times when things looked dicey against Detroit, but for the most part, the Cavs dominated the No. 8 seed. They made plays down the stretch to beat Stan Van Gundy. They covered only two of the four games, but still got out of Auburn Hills with a 100-98 Game 4 win that ensured a lesser work load. Then they got to work on Atlanta, a team that had reached the conference finals against them last season, and produced the most surprising result of this year’s postseason.

Portland landing in the Western Conference semis and playing competitive ball against the defending champs was definitely unexpected, but it has benefited from the Clippers losing Chris Paul and Blake Griffin and the Warriors toiling without Stephen Curry. What the Cavs did to the Hawks, a well-coached team loaded with veterans, was more of a shocker. How they did it, setting a four-game record for 3-pointers made in a series, was the real eye-opener.

After looking like the team we’ve seen all season against the Pistons, winning by a combined margin of 103.5-94.8, the Cavs averaged 112 points in the four-game sweep of Atlanta, twice eclipsing 120 points. Cleveland put up 152 3-pointers, connecting on 77 (50.7 pct) in shattering the previous high for makes from beyond the arc in a four-game series (57), falling just short of tying the 79 makes that the Hawks managed in a 2014 first-round series against the Pacers. If the Hawks had managed to extend Game 4 to OT, the Cavs might have shattered a record that took seven games to set in a span of four. Cleveland made 15 or more 3-pointers in every contest, becoming the first team in NBA history to knock down that many in four consecutive games, encompassing both playoffs or regular season. They memorably sunk 25 3-pointers in Game 2, shattering Golden State’s single-game record.

Honestly, it looked like a fluke, except for how the meaning of that word belies the consistency Cleveland displayed. They shot the ball with impunity. The ball was moved around the perimeter quickly and decisively, usually resulting in an open look for a capable shooter who was successful over half the time.

If not a fluke, a hot stretch? Sizzling, even. Well, maybe, which is why it’s going to be so interesting to see who gets out of the other Eastern Conference semifinal and how much more time the Cavs will get to work on themselves in the lab without pressure. Toronto lost center Jonas Valanciunas for the rest of the postseason due to an ankle issue. Miami is listing Hassan Whiteside as day-to-day with an MCL injury, but he likely won’t be 100 percent the rest of the way and may not make it back at all.

The top candidates on each roster to defend LeBron each got hurt in Game 5. Raptors small forward DeMarre Carroll was sidelined by a left wrist contusion and got good news on his MRI but remains day-to-day. Heat forward Luol Deng was still awaiting word on his wrist after initial results proved inconclusive after he hurt himself trying to brace his fall following a collision with a camera man. Toronto All-Star DeMar DeRozan isn’t 100 percent either, dealing with a nagging thumb injury.

Regardless of who ultimately comes out of the series to reach the Eastern Conference finals, Cleveland will be heavily favored. Still, there’s a legitimate argument to be made that Miami would be a far more challenging opponent.

The Heat rank in the Top 10 in 3-point percentage defense, while the Raptors ranked next-to-last, surrendering 37.4 percent shooting from beyond the arc. Considering the fan base in Miami would bring something extra to the table against LeBron James and the Heat’s battle-tested veterans are best-equipped to play mind games with the younger Cavaliers, there is little doubt that the Eastern Conference favorite would prefer a trip north of the border as opposed to heading south, since that would likely improve their chances of getting through the third leg of “fo-fo-fo-fo” unscathed.

As things stood on Thursday, Cleveland was at -800 (1-to-8) at Sportsbook.ag to win the Eastern Conference, a number that has held all week. After going up 3-2, the Raptors went from +750 (7.5-to-1) to +650 (6.5-to-1) and the Heat went from +1500 (15-to-1) to +2500 (25-to-1). Cleveland has hung second in the pecking order of NBA favorites, coming in at +200 (2-to-1), just behind Golden State, who is now at -170 (1-to-1.7) after opening the week -125 (1-to-1.25). San Antonio and OKC were both at +1000 (10-to-1) entering their Game 6 showdown.

If you want a horse in the race, it’s certainly worth backing a rested Cavs squad to take down the survivor of the Western Conference wars since Cleveland seems like a lock to get there, but the verdict remains out as to whether they can continue playing this way when the caliber of competition increases.

The Cavs’ championship hopes would probably be best-served if they were tested in the Eastern Conference finals and “fo-fo-fo-fo” was an impossibility, but it remains to be seen how large a part confidence plays in their continued transformation. This trigger-happy Cleveland squad is letting it fly with reckless abandon, asking questions later. The Cavaliers could wind up a victim of the “live by the three, die by the three” cliché, but seem to be following in the footsteps of the team that beat them last year, hoping the presence of Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love ultimately make the difference in a rematch.

We’ll see how they handle adversity since they haven’t faced any yet. Of course, getting by any setbacks at all is obviously the way to go, as the legendary Malone once suggested.

[StarDust Bum]

Durant, Thunder back in conference finals
May 13, 2016

OKLAHOMA CITY (AP) Now that Kevin Durant is back, the Thunder have returned to a familiar place.

Oklahoma City beat San Antonio in six games to advance to the Western Conference finals for the fourth time in six years - and the fourth time in the past five seasons that Durant has been healthy.

San Antonio was expected to advance, especially after going 40-1 at home during the regular season to claim the No. 2 seed in the West. But the third-seeded Thunder won twice in San Antonio during the series, boosting their confidence heading into Game 1 against the defending NBA champion Golden State Warriors on Monday night in Oakland.

Durant is still chasing his first NBA title, so he was able to put the Spurs series in its proper perspective.

''This wasn't our championship,'' Durant said after Thursday night's clincher. ''We were confident coming in here. We're just happy that we're moving forward and have an opportunity to play again, and we're excited about it.''

Durant is especially excited, considering where he was a year ago at this time. He followed his 2013-14 MVP season by missing most of last season with broken bone in his right foot. The Thunder missed the playoffs, and Durant watched as Golden State's Stephen Curry won the MVP award and an NBA title.

This season, Curry won the scoring title and another MVP award, while Durant bounced back to finish fifth in the MVP balloting.

If anyone can handle a shootout with Curry, it's Durant. The four-time scoring champion struggled with his shot in the first-round series against Dallas but looked like himself against San Antonio. He averaged 28.5 points on 50 percent shooting in the series against the Spurs, scoring 41 points in Game 4 and 37 in Game 6.

The Warriors won a record 73 games in the regular season, but Durant made it clear the Thunder like where they stand after beating the Spurs, who posted one of the best regular seasons in NBA history. The Thunder lost Game 1 at San Antonio 124-92, but rallied to win four of the next five games.

''We weren't in this position for nothing,'' Durant said. ''I think throughout the season, we stood by who we were as a team. We were mixing different lineups, so that helped out as well. Guys got experience out there during the regular season.''

The grind of the San Antonio series could serve the Thunder well against Golden State. Though the Thunder won the series 4-2, four of the games were battles.

''Obviously, in a perfect world we would love to be up 25 or 30 points every game, but teams are too good, especially at this time of year,'' Durant said. ''I think if you have to grind things out, it builds character. In a perfect world we would love to be up by that many points, but when we are in a grind-out game, it gets us more prepared for that type of play, especially since those type of games are more frequent than blowout games postseason.''

Oklahoma City point guard Russell Westbrook was dynamic in the series against the Spurs, too. He scored 28 points in Game 6 on 10-for-21 shooting, and had 12 assists. For the series, he averaged 25.2 points and 10.5 assists. He struggled with his shot early in the series, but he put pressure on the defense and found his teammates often, then eventually found his shooting rhythm.

Thunder players other than Durant and Westbrook have been effective during the playoffs, making the Thunder potentially more dangerous than they were in the regular season. The other Oklahoma City players combined to shoot 47.6 percent from the field in the series against San Antonio. Against Dallas, the other players shot 54.5 percent.

Steven Adams has made the biggest leap. The 7-foot center, not known as a scorer in the regular season, averaged 11 points and made 26 of 37 shots (70.3 percent) against the Spurs.

The Thunder will need more of the same from the role players since they are going from playing one great team to another.

''We are playing two teams that have played at a historically high level,'' Thunder coach Billy Donovan said. ''I know at the end of the regular season, if you look at the Spurs and Golden State, both of them, what they have done in terms of numbers has been incredible. Golden State is a great team. It will be a great challenge.''

[StarDust Bum]

How many times has your team changed coaches in the Pop era?
May 12, 2016

MIAMI (AP) Coaching changes are constant in the NBA, except in San Antonio.

Since Gregg Popovich became coach of the Spurs on Dec. 10, 1996, there have been 233 coaching changes throughout the rest of the league. The most recent of those came Thursday when Scott Skiles resigned in Orlando.

After Popovich, the second-longest tenured coach in the NBA is Miami's Erik Spoelstra. He was hired April 28, 2008, a couple weeks before Dallas hired Rick Carlisle. Take away Popovich's two-decade-and-counting run, and the average time that an NBA coach has been able to keep a head-coaching gig around the league is about 2 1-2 years.

''It's really disturbing, actually. I've only been a head coach for eight years. So what am I, the second-longest-tenured?'' Spoelstra, who rose from the Heat video room to head coach, said earlier this month when asked about the lack of job security in the field.

''That's a sad state of where the coaching profession is right now and stability of organizations,'' Spoelstra continued. ''And that's why it's fairly easy for me to feel grateful being part of this organization for 21 years.''

There's only five coaches who were in their current NBA jobs before 2013: Popovich, Spoelstra, Carlisle, Toronto's Dwane Casey and Portland's Terry Stotts.

''The grass,'' Casey said, ''always seems greener on the other side.''

Below is a breakdown of total coaching changes by team since Popovich took over as coach in San Antonio.

This doesn't include when coaches missed games for illness or personal reasons, or in situations where the head coach remained officially in place but was not at games (such as when assistant Ron Rothstein filled in for Pat Riley at times during 2006-07 and 2007-08 in Miami, or earlier this season when assistant Luke Walton guided Golden State while Steve Kerr recovered from back surgeries).

It also doesn't include when New Orleans hired Paul Silas for its expansion year, since that technically was not a coaching change. But it does include when interim coaches were officially named even if they lasted only a few games. And it includes Billy Donovan's stint in Orlando, when he accepted the job and then resigned within days to return to the Florida Gators.

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Number of coaching changes - Team(s)

13 - Memphis

12- Orlando, Washington

11 - Brooklyn, Detroit, L.A. Lakers, Sacramento

10 - Chicago, Cleveland, Denver, Golden State, New York

9 - Minnesota, Philadelphia

8 - L.A. Clippers, Milwaukee

7 - Charlotte, Oklahoma City

6 - Indiana, Portland, Toronto

5 - Atlanta, Boston, Houston

3 - Dallas, Miami

2 - Utah

0 - San Antonio

Note - Totals for Memphis, Orlando, Indiana and Houston include current vacancies.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA MONEYLINE

NBA > (545) TORONTO@ (546) MIAMI | 2016-05-13 15:00:00 - 2016-05-13 15:00:00
Play ON TORONTO using money line in All games when playing against a team with a winning record
The record is 33 Wins and 17 Losses for the this season (+16.15 units)

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MLB TOTALS

NBA > (545) TORONTO@ (546) MIAMI | 2016-05-13 15:00:00 - 2016-05-13 15:00:00
Play UNDER MIAMI on the totalin All games revenging a loss vs opponent
The record is 14 Overs and 30 Unders for the this season (+14.6 units)

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NBA > (545) TORONTO @ (546) MIAMI | 2016-05-13 15:00:00 - 2016-05-13 15:00:00
Line: TORONTO BTB PowerLine: TORONTO-3
Edge On: TORONTO (1)

[StarDust Bum]

5/12 - THURSDAY'S NIGHTS ACTION: 1 - 1
OVERALL: 60 -64


FRIDAY, MAY 13

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

TOR at MIA 08:00 PM

TOR +4.0

O 189.0

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Sunday's six-pack

Some college football pointspreads for this fall, from the South Point casino:

-- Sept 10: BYU @ Utah (-7.5)

-- Sept 17: Ohio State @ Oklahoma (-9)

-- Sept 24: Arkansas (-1.5) @ Texas A&M

-- Oct 1: Tennessee @ Georgia (even)

-- Oct 8: Washington @ Oregon (-4.5)

-- Oct 15: Stanford (-1) @ Notre Dame

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Armadillo: Sunday's List of 13: Wrapping up a sports Saturday.....

13) National League is off to a 31-20 start in interleague play, its best start in years. Over is 31-20 in those 51 games.

12) Cubs 8, Pirates 2-- Chicago has won Jake Arrieta's last 21 starts.

11) Larry Fitzgerald graduated from college, fuffilling a promise he made to his late mother, so good for him.

10) Red Sox 6, Astros 5-- Gregerson blew save in 9th for 15-23 Houston.

9) There were no NBA or NHL games Saturday, which is odd.

8) Braves 5, Royals 0-- Mike Foltynewsicz shut Royals out for eight innins, then got picked up by my fantasy team while I was sitting in a bar listening to live music.

7) Orioles 9, Tigers 3-- Baltimore is 23-12; Showalter is a great manager- at one point in spring training, Orioles were 0-10 and there was unstated concern. But those games do not atter and now the O's are in first place.

6) Phillies 4, Reds 3-- Philly is now 14-3 in games decided by one run.

5) Angels 9, Mariners 7-- Jhoulys Chacin was excellent in his Halos debut, but LA's bullpen blew 6-2 lead on him, then Seattle bullpen blew that lead in ninth.

4) No NBA team should draft Cheick Diallo in the first round; he averaged 3.0 ppg and 2.5 rpg in his only year at Kasnas-n he played 7.5 mpg. Why would a kid leave school so early when he clearly is not ready? .

3) Russell Wilson gave the commencement address at Wisconsin yesterday; he went to school in Madison for one year, after transferring from NC State.

2) Cubs are 15-2 vs NL West rivals, 12-6 vs everyone else.

1) Giants and Dodger are tied atop NL West, three games over .500. No bueno.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA

Sunday, May 15

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Sunday's NBA playoffs betting preview and odds: Heat at Raptors
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Dwyane Wade can expect to get the full attention of the Raptors' defense during Sunday's Game 7 battle in Toronto.

Miami Heat at Toronto Raptors (-4.5, 189.5)

Series tied 3-3

The Miami Heat are embracing small ball in ways rarely seen in the NBA and are on the verge of taking it to the Eastern Conference finals. The Heat will once again operate without a traditional center when they visit the Toronto Raptors for Game 7 on Sunday.

Miami didn’t just leave the center out of the lineup in Game 6 with starter Hassan Whiteside sidelined, it left power forwards Amar’e Stoudemire and Udonis Haslem on the bench the entire game as well while small forwards Luol Deng, Justise Winslow and Joe Johnson started and got the bulk of the playing time in the frontcourt. "Sometimes unconventional works," veteran guard Dwyane Wade, who scored 22 points in the 103-91 triumph, told reporters of the lineup. The Raptors received solid play from the backcourt pairing of DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry but failed to contain the Miami guards and the waves of perimeter players the Heat sent at them on the defensive end. “They did an excellent job of setting the tempo and the style of play early and we didn’t adjust to it as far as guarding the basketball, containing the basketball, keeping it in front of us,” Raptors coach Dwane Casey told reporters.

TV: 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC

LINE HISTORY: The Raptors opened as 4.5-point favorites and the total hit the board at 189.5. At the time this preview will be published on Saturday evening, neither number has moved. Check out the complete line history here.

ABOUT THE HEAT (55-40, 51-43-1 ATS, 39-55-1 O/U): Miami, like Toronto, is playing a Game 7 for the second time already in this postseason and is confident it can get the job done on the road. "It's different than a normal game," Wade told reporters. "It's not a Game 1, where you have a Game 2 the next day. You have to give a little more. You have to do a little more. You have to give everything you have. There's no tomorrow." The Heat are at their best when point guard Goran Dragic is playing aggressively and attacking the basket, and the 30-year-old posted his playoff high with 30 points in Friday’s triumph.

ABOUT THE RAPTORS (63-32, 49-46 ATS, 46-48-1 O/U): Toronto was without its starting center as well (Jonas Valanciunas, ankle) but elevated reserve center Bismack Biyombo into the starting lineup and tried to play a more traditional style on offense. The Raptors lamented their struggles with one-on-one defense after the loss, with Lowry in particular noting the difficulty of containing Dragic, but are excited for Game 7 at home. “This is going to be fun,” Lowry told reporters. “It’s Game 7, (No. 2 seed) versus No. 3 and a good opportunity to play on one of the biggest stages there is. Time to just go out there and hoop.”

TRENDS:

* Heat are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
* Raptors are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
* Under is 7-2 in Heat last 9 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
* Over is 23-5 in Raptors last 28 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points.

CONSENSUS: The public is favoring the Raptors as home favorites at 55 percent and the Over is getting 60 percent of the action in early wagering.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA
Dunkel

Sunday, May 15


Miami @ Toronto

Game 549-550
May 15, 2016 @ 3:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Miami
123.480
Toronto
124.937
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Toronto
by 1 1/2
185
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Toronto
by 4 1/2
189 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Miami
(+4 1/2); Under




NBA
Long Sheet

Sunday, May 15

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MIAMI (55 - 40) at TORONTO (63 - 32) - 5/15/2016, 3:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 51-43 ATS (+3.7 Units) in all games this season.
MIAMI is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) on Sunday games over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 42-31 ATS (+7.9 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season.
TORONTO is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in all playoff games over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 175-219 ATS (-65.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
TORONTO is 48-63 ATS (-21.3 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 9-8 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 9-8 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
9 of 17 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Sunday, May 15

Miami-Toronto (3-3)
Heat lost seven of last 10 games with Toronto, losing four of last five played here. Home side won 11 of last 15 series games overall- three of last four series games here went over total. Eight of last 11 Miami games stayed under total, as have 10 of last 14 3 Raptor games. Lowry had 33 points in Game 3 but is 33-98 in other five games. Dragic erupted with 30 points in Game 6 to help even series. Miam is 6-3 all-time in Game 7's, Toronto is 1-2

Playoff tally: Favorites vs spread: 26-18, Over: 13-31
Second round: Favorites: 12-8, over: 11-9




NBA

Sunday, May 15

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Trend Report
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3:30 PM
MIAMI vs. TORONTO
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Miami's last 8 games on the road
Miami is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Toronto
Toronto is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games when playing at home against Miami
Toronto is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Miami

[StarDust Bum]

Game 7 to finally decide Raps-Heat winner
May 14, 2016

MIAMI (AP) History is going to happen.

Either Toronto or Miami will become the 15th NBA team to win two Game 7s in the same postseason. The Raptors could go to the Eastern Conference finals for the first time. The Heat have a shot at being the first team ever to erase 3-2 deficits in consecutive playoff series.

And if that wasn't enough, LeBron James awaits the winner in the East finals.

The stage is set, the stakes are super-high. The final second-round game of this year's playoffs is Sunday afternoon in Toronto, where the Raptors and Heat will play Game 7 and finally decide their back-and-forth, black-and-blue series. The winner will join Golden State, Oklahoma City and Cleveland as the four teams left standing in the chase for the NBA championship.

''This is why we're in this business, to be pushed and tested and challenged,'' Miami coach Erik Spoelstra said Saturday. ''There's no greater challenge than a Game 7.''

The Heat fended off elimination Friday, going with a super-small lineup and beating the Raptors 103-91 in Miami to force a winner-take-all game. Miami won a Game 7 in the first round, topping Charlotte at home. Toronto also successfully defended home-court in a first-round Game 7, and this series has gone just as that one against Indiana did - Raptors lose at home, win at home, win on the road, lose on the road, win at home, lose on the road.

They hope history repeats itself one more time Sunday.

''Game 7 in the first round was a little more tight,'' Raptors guard Kyle Lowry said. ''This one Sunday will be `Just go out there and hoop.'''

Every team and every year is different, but closeouts seem to never come easily for Toronto.

The Raptors are 2-6 all-time when they have a chance to eliminate an opponent, and lost a Game 7 at home two years ago to Brooklyn - a team that featured current Heat forward Joe Johnson. Lowry and backcourt mate DeMar DeRozan are averaging a combined 42.7 points in the series, but are still shooting a combined 38 percent.

''Our backs will be against the wall,'' Raptors forward DeMarre Carroll said. ''It's Game 7 on our home court with our home crowd. What better place do you want to be?''

The Heat, meanwhile, oddly seem to thrive when in trouble.

Miami has won its last four Game 7s, could join the Lakers and Celtics as the only franchises to win five straight, and are 7-1 in its last eight games when facing elimination. And Miami has somehow won its last three series after falling into a 3-2 hole.

''You've got to give a little more,'' said Heat guard Dwyane Wade, the leading scorer in the series at 25.2 points per game. ''You've got to do a little more. Obviously, it's a great environment to be in. ... It's phenomenal. But you've got to give everything you have. There's no tomorrow. That's the way we approach it. I think it's going to be two teams trying to give everything they have. Best team win, man.''

Miami figures to stay with the small lineup, with rookie Justise Winslow the de facto center to open the game - as was the case in Game 6 when Spoelstra rolled the dice and played only eight players, just one standing taller than 6-foot-9.

It was unconventional. It was necessary. And it worked, with Goran Dragic's 30 points leading the Miami win.

Chris Bosh has been out since February after another blood clot was found, Hassan Whiteside has missed most of this series with a knee injury, and seven of the eight players who got minutes Friday were not with the Heat when they played in the 2014 NBA Finals.

Yet here they are, on the cusp of reaching the conference finals for the seventh time in Wade's 13 seasons.

''I didn't want to go down not swinging, so that was pretty much my mentality,'' Winslow said. ''I'll approach Game 7 the same way.''

The Raptors could throw a wrench in Miami's small-ball scheme if center Jonas Valanciunas - out since spraining his ankle in Game 3 - was to return. The Raptors say he's not ready to play, but the Heat know some sort of adjustment from Toronto is coming.

''We have to respond,'' Raptors coach Dwane Casey said.

The series has had a little of everything. There was Wade's anthem flap, injuries to Whiteside and Valanciunas, DeRozan playing through a bad thumb, bloodied faces for Lowry and Dragic, and Carroll and Luol Deng playing through sore wrists in Game 6.

Now it's time to decide a winner, and Cleveland's opponent in the East final.

''Nobody said it was going to be easy,'' Dragic said.

[StarDust Bum]

Game 7 - Heat at Raptors
May 14, 2016

The only series headed to a decisive Game 7 in the conference semifinals takes place in Toronto on Sunday between the Raptors and Heat. This series hasn’t lived up to any kind of aesthetic standards, but the winner of Sunday’s contest will likely be the sacrificial lamb to LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers in the Eastern Conference Finals.

Miami extended its second straight postseason series to a seventh game after pulling away from Toronto in Friday’s Game 6 at American Airlines Arena, 103-91 as 3 ½-point favorites. Goran Dragic scored a season-high 30 points, while reaching double-digit scoring for the 12th time in 13 playoff games. Miami had to employ a smaller lineup with center Hassan Whiteside sidelined, as 6’7’’ rookie Justise Winslow stepped up at the 5-spot and held his own by scoring 12 points, a career-high. Dwyane Wade struggled from the floor by shooting 8-of-21, but hit several key shots and finished with 22 points to improve Miami to 5-2 SU/ATS at home in the playoffs.

Toronto’s backcourt duo of Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan combined for 59 of the Raptors’ 91 points in the Game 6 defeat, as no other Toronto players scored in double-figures. Lowry and DeRozan posted inefficient shooting numbers once again, going 20-of-48 from the floor, but the two guards combined to convert 16-of-17 free throws attempts. Backup center Bismack Biyombo scored in double-figures in his first two starts for the injured Jonas Valenciunas, but was limited to four points in Game 6, although he pulled down 13 rebounds.

Following three consecutive ‘unders,’ the ‘over’ has cashed in each of the last two games, as the Heat and Raptors eclipsed the ‘over’ of 188 ½ in Game 6. Miami became the first team to bust the 100-point mark in regulation in this series on Friday, while Toronto’s highest output in this series was 99 points put up in Game 5. The middle two quarters in Game 6 helped cash the ‘over,’ as the two teams combined for 56 points in the second quarter and 57 points in the third. In each of the first two games in Toronto, there was not one quarter in which the teams combined for over 50 points, but in Game 5, the second and fourth quarters saw 50+ points put up between the clubs.

The Heat and Raptors are both playing their second Game 7 of this postseason. Miami blasted Charlotte, 106-73 in the seventh game of the opening round, the fourth consecutive Game 7 victory for the Heat dating back to 2011. The last time that Erik Spoelstra’s team lost a Game 7 came in the first round of the 2009 playoffs at Atlanta, 91-78. Toronto held off Indiana in Game 7 of the conference quarterfinals, 89-84, but failed to cover as six-point favorites. The Raptors own a 1-2 record in three Game 7’s in franchise history, which includes a one-point setback to Brooklyn in the 2014 first round.

Both centers remain out for Game 7, as Whiteside’s sprained MCL suffered in Game 3 has not improved enough, while Valenciunas is on the mend for an ankle injury as the status moving forward for the Toronto center is uncertain. Since both centers have been sidelined, the rebounding numbers haven’t skewed one way or the other, as the biggest rebounding difference came in Game 5 as Miami out-boarded Toronto, 44-39.

VegasInsider.com handicapper Joe Nelson provides more insight on Game 7, "This series has been incredibly even and after Miami’s 12-point win on Friday, the Heat have a net scoring edge of just one point in the six games combined and three of the six games have gone to overtime. Despite every game being tight the favorite has now covered in each of the past three games after the underdog covered in the first three games of the series."

Nelson continues, "Toronto won a big Game 7 at home against the Pacers in the first round, though they fell just short of the spread and the Raptors hold a 37-11 SU record at home counting the playoffs. Toronto is only 2-5 ATS at home in the playoffs as they have won five of those seven games straight-up. Ultimately another tight game should be expected with the winner getting a quick turnaround to face the rested Cavaliers who will enter the Eastern Conference Finals having played six fewer playoff games after back-to-back sweeps."

Since the start of 2014 playoffs, home teams own an 8-1 SU and 5-4 ATS record in Game 7’s with the only defeat suffered by Toronto in the 2014 opening round against Brooklyn. Only two underdogs have won outright in this stretch of Game 7’s with the Rockets knocking out the Clippers at home last season in the conference semifinals as 2 ½-point ‘dogs.

When this series began, Sportsbook.ag issued exact game odds as Toronto was listed at 5/2 odds (Bet $100 to win $250) to win in seven games, while Miami had 6/1 odds (Bet $100 to win $600) to advance to the Eastern Conference Finals in seven games. Toronto started the series at -160 odds (Bet $160 to win $100) to advance regardless of games played according to Sportsbook.ag, while Miami was +140 (Bet $100 to win $140) to reach its first Eastern Conference Finals since 2014.

[StarDust Bum]

Preview: Heat (48-34) at Raptors (56-26)
Date: May 15, 2016 3:30 PM EDT

MIAMI (AP) History is going to happen.

Either Toronto or Miami will become the 15th NBA team to win two Game 7s in the same postseason. The Raptors could go to the Eastern Conference finals for the first time. The Heat have a shot at being the first team ever to erase 3-2 deficits in consecutive playoff series.

And if that wasn't enough, LeBron James awaits the winner in the East finals.

The stage is set, the stakes are super-high. The final second-round game of this year's playoffs is Sunday afternoon in Toronto, where the Raptors and Heat will play Game 7 and finally decide their back-and-forth, black-and-blue series. The winner will join Golden State, Oklahoma City and Cleveland as the four teams left standing in the chase for the NBA championship.

'This is why we're in this business, to be pushed and tested and challenged,' Miami coach Erik Spoelstra said Saturday. 'There's no greater challenge than a Game 7.'

The Heat fended off elimination Friday, going with a super-small lineup and beating the Raptors 103-91 in Miami to force a winner-take-all game. Miami won a Game 7 in the first round, topping Charlotte at home. Toronto also successfully defended home-court in a first-round Game 7, and this series has gone just as that one against Indiana did - Raptors lose at home, win at home, win on the road, lose on the road, win at home, lose on the road.

They hope history repeats itself one more time Sunday.

'Game 7 in the first round was a little more tight,' Raptors guard Kyle Lowry said. 'This one Sunday will be `Just go out there and hoop.''

Every team and every year is different, but closeouts seem to never come easily for Toronto.

The Raptors are 2-6 all-time when they have a chance to eliminate an opponent, and lost a Game 7 at home two years ago to Brooklyn - a team that featured current Heat forward Joe Johnson. Lowry and backcourt mate DeMar DeRozan are averaging a combined 42.7 points in the series, but are still shooting a combined 38 percent.

'Our backs will be against the wall,' Raptors forward DeMarre Carroll said. 'It's Game 7 on our home court with our home crowd. What better place do you want to be?'

The Heat, meanwhile, oddly seem to thrive when in trouble.

Miami has won its last four Game 7s, could join the Lakers and Celtics as the only franchises to win five straight, and are 7-1 in its last eight games when facing elimination. And Miami has somehow won its last three series after falling into a 3-2 hole.

'You've got to give a little more,' said Heat guard Dwyane Wade, the leading scorer in the series at 25.2 points per game. 'You've got to do a little more. Obviously, it's a great environment to be in. ... It's phenomenal. But you've got to give everything you have. There's no tomorrow. That's the way we approach it. I think it's going to be two teams trying to give everything they have. Best team win, man.'

Miami figures to stay with the small lineup, with rookie Justise Winslow the de facto center to open the game - as was the case in Game 6 when Spoelstra rolled the dice and played only eight players, just one standing taller than 6-foot-9.

It was unconventional. It was necessary. And it worked, with Goran Dragic's 30 points leading the Miami win.

Chris Bosh has been out since February after another blood clot was found, Hassan Whiteside has missed most of this series with a knee injury, and seven of the eight players who got minutes Friday were not with the Heat when they played in the 2014 NBA Finals.

Yet here they are, on the cusp of reaching the conference finals for the seventh time in Wade's 13 seasons.

'I didn't want to go down not swinging, so that was pretty much my mentality,' Winslow said. 'I'll approach Game 7 the same way.'

The Raptors could throw a wrench in Miami's small-ball scheme if center Jonas Valanciunas - out since spraining his ankle in Game 3 - was to return. The Raptors say he's not ready to play, but the Heat know some sort of adjustment from Toronto is coming.

'We have to respond,' Raptors coach Dwane Casey said.

The series has had a little of everything. There was Wade's anthem flap, injuries to Whiteside and Valanciunas, DeRozan playing through a bad thumb, bloodied faces for Lowry and Dragic, and Carroll and Luol Deng playing through sore wrists in Game 6.

Now it's time to decide a winner, and Cleveland's opponent in the East final.

'Nobody said it was going to be easy,' Dragic said.


SERIES AT A GLANCE

GAME 1
Heat at Raptors
Tue, May 3 Final 102 to 96
Recaps

GAME 2
Heat at Raptors
Thu, May 5 Final 92 to 96
Recaps

GAME 3
Raptors at Heat
Sat, May 7 Final 95 to 91
Recaps

GAME 4
Raptors at Heat
Mon, May 9 Final 87 to 94
Recaps

GAME 5
Heat at Raptors
Wed, May 11 Final 91 to 99
Recaps

GAME 6
Raptors at Heat
Fri, May 13 Final 91 to 103
Recaps

GAME 7
Heat at Raptors
Sun, May 15 - 3:30PM EDT

[StarDust Bum]

NBA ATS

NBA > (549) MIAMI@ (550) TORONTO | 2016-05-15 15:35:00 - 2016-05-15 15:35:00
Play ON MIAMI using money line in All games on Sunday games
The record is 20 Wins and 7 Losses for the last two seasons (+19.1 units)

NBA POWER LINE

NBA > (549) MIAMI @ (550) TORONTO | 2016-05-15 15:35:00 - 2016-05-15 15:35:00
Line: MIAMI BTB PowerLine: MIAMI-1
Edge On: MIAMI (3.5)

[StarDust Bum]

OVERALL 60 -64

SUNDAY, MAY 15

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

MIA at TOR 03:30 PM

MIA +4.5

U 187.5