The Bum's National Basketball League Apri's Picks/Trends/News Thru the Playoffs !!

[StarDust Bum]

NBA
Long Sheet

Wednesday, April 27

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CHARLOTTE (50 - 36) at MIAMI (50 - 36) - 4/27/2016, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 31-22 ATS (+6.8 Units) as a favorite this season.
MIAMI is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in home games second half of the season this season.
MIAMI is 24-15 ATS (+7.5 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
MIAMI is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) in home games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season.
MIAMI is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in home games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
CHARLOTTE is 39-24 ATS (+12.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 12-8 against the spread versus CHARLOTTE over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 14-6 straight up against CHARLOTTE over the last 3 seasons
12 of 20 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PORTLAND (46 - 40) at LA CLIPPERS (55 - 31) - 4/27/2016, 10:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA CLIPPERS are 20-10 ATS (+9.0 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
PORTLAND is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) off an upset win as an underdog this season.
LA CLIPPERS are 84-117 ATS (-44.7 Units) after 3 or more consecutive unders since 1996.
LA CLIPPERS are 211-262 ATS (-77.2 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more since 1996.
LA CLIPPERS are 192-252 ATS (-85.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
PORTLAND is 8-7 against the spread versus LA CLIPPERS over the last 3 seasons
LA CLIPPERS is 9-6 straight up against PORTLAND over the last 3 seasons
9 of 15 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

HOUSTON (42 - 44) at GOLDEN STATE (76 - 10) - 4/27/2016, 10:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 38-48 ATS (-14.8 Units) in all games this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 47-36 ATS (+7.4 Units) in all games this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 61-47 ATS (+9.3 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 210 over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 44-35 ATS (+5.5 Units) as a favorite this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 54-38 ATS (+12.2 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 119-88 ATS (+22.2 Units) in April games since 1996.
GOLDEN STATE is 26-12 ATS (+12.8 Units) when playing with 2 days rest over the last 3 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) against Southwest division opponents this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 20-7 ATS (+12.3 Units) in the first round of the playoffs since 1996.
GOLDEN STATE is 57-40 ATS (+13.0 Units) after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 36-24 ATS (+9.6 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 62-43 ATS (+14.7 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
HOUSTON is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) when playing with 2 days rest over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 128-90 ATS (+29.0 Units) in road games after allowing 105 points or more since 1996.
HOUSTON is 39-25 ATS (+11.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 11-23 ATS (-14.3 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
GOLDEN STATE is 12-7 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
GOLDEN STATE is 15-4 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
12 of 19 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




NBA
Short Sheet

Wednesday, April 27

Charlotte at Miami, 8:05 ET
Charlotte: 0-9 ATS off 2 consecutive wins against division rivals
Miami: 9-1 ATS in home games after a loss by 6 points or less

Portland at LA CLippers, 10:05 ET
Portland: 6-1 ATS off an upset win as a home underdog
Los Angeles: 1-6 ATS off an upset loss as a road favorite

Houston at Golden State, 10:35 ET
Houston: 16-26 ATS after playing a home game
Golden State: 21-11 ATS off a road win




NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Wednesday, April 27

Charlotte-Miami (2-2)
Home side won all four series games; Walker/Lin combined for 55 points in Game 4 win- no other Hornet had more than 11. Hornets lost five of last nine games with Miami (over 6-2 in last eight). Hornets lost four of last five visits here; Heat scored 115-123 in Games 1-2 here, then 80-85 in Charlotte. Hornets won five of their last eight games (over 7-2); they lost four of their last six road games. Miami won its last five home tilts, all by 8+ points- their last three home games all went over.

Portland-LA Clippers (2-2)
Clippers are without Paul/Griffin for duration of this series; Portland is 0-4 in last four games played here, with three losses by 15+, but missing Paul is huge for LA- Game 4 was Monday, so Rivers had only had a day to retool offense, with less dynamic PG Prigioni getting more minutes. Home side won all four series games; last five games in series stayed under total. Trailblazers won nine of their last 13 games overall; eight of their last ten games stayed under the total.

Houston-Golden State (G 3-1)
Curry is out for series, but Warriors outscored Houston 41-20 in decisive third quarter Sunday, without Curry. Golden State won 12 of last 14 games (9-5 vs the spread) against Houston, covering three of last four played here (non-cover was by half-point). Last game, Iguodala scored 22 points in 24:00 to pick up slack created by Curry's injury. Not big fan of Houston's chemistry; they went in tank last game, they have interim coach- they're 1-3 vs spread in last four road games. .

Playoff tally: Favorites vs spread: 21-14, Over: 11-24




NBA

Wednesday, April 27

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

8:00 PM
CHARLOTTE vs. MIAMI
Charlotte is 6-19 SU in its last 25 games when playing Miami
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Charlotte's last 5 games on the road
Miami is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games when playing Charlotte
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 6 games

10:00 PM
PORTLAND vs. LA CLIPPERS
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Portland's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Portland's last 12 games on the road
LA Clippers are 10-1 SU in their last 11 games when playing at home against Portland
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of the LA Clippers last 5 games when playing at home against Portland

10:30 PM
HOUSTON vs. GOLDEN STATE
Houston is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Houston's last 12 games when playing Golden State
Golden State is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Golden State's last 12 games when playing Houston

[StarDust Bum]

NBA
Dunkel

Wednesday, April 27


Charlotte @ Miami

Game 575-576
April 27, 2016 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Charlotte
116.723
Miami
124.816
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Miami
by 8
190
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Miami
by 5 1/2
193
Dunkel Pick:
Miami
(-5 1/2); Under

Portland @ LA Clippers

Game 577-578
April 27, 2016 @ 10:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Portland
126.082
LA Clippers
120.513
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Portland
by 5 1/2
191
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Portland
by 2 1/2
197 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Portland
(-2 1/2); Under

Houston @ Golden State

Game 579-580
April 27, 2016 @ 10:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Houston
120.227
Golden State
126.915
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Golden State
by 6 1/2
216
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Golden State
by 9 1/2
211
Dunkel Pick:
Houston
(+9 1/2); Over

[StarDust Bum]

NBA

Wednesday, April 27

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Wednesday's NBA playoffs betting preview and odds
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The Clippers are in big trouble against the Blazers without Chris Paul and Blake Griffin.

The San Antonio Spurs will be sitting comfortably at home watching as their damaged Western Conference rivals go to work in the trenches for Game 5. No Steph Curry, no Chris Paul and no Blake Griffin - it's going to be interesting to see how the Warriors and Clippers react on the court.

Charlotte Hornets at Miami Heat (-6, 193)

Series ties 2-2

The Heat have been two different teams in the playoffs depending on the venue and will hope for a return to form on offense when the series shifts back to Miami for Game 5 on Wednesday. The sixth-seeded Charlotte Hornets took Games 3 and 4 at home to even the series and hope the defensive improvements the team made can carry over to Game 5.

The Heat set a franchise postseason scoring record with 123 points in Game 1 and put up 72 in the first half of a 115-103 Game 2 win before failing to crack 90 points in either of the two road games. “The biggest thing I’d change is nothing,” Miami center Hassan Whiteside, who was careful not to directly criticize the referees, told reporters. “We just missed some shots. They’ve got to come to South Beach, and we’ve been playing well all year at home.” The Hornets attacked the Heat defense through the paint with guards Kemba Walker and Jeremy Lin in the 89-85 Game 4 win, and the two combined for 55 points. Walker scored 11 straight Charlotte points in the last six minutes of the fourth quarter to help his team pull away.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, TNT, FSN Sun (Miami)

LINE HISTORY: The Heat opened as 5.5-point favorites for this pivotal Game 5 matchup against the Hornets and the line has moved up slightly to -6. The total opened at 193 and also has not moved. Check out the complete line history here.

ABOUT THE HORNETS (50-36, 44-41-1 ATS, 42-42-2 O/U): Walker slumped to 17 points on 4-of-19 shooting in Game 3 but found his groove again in Game 4, especially late. “Time and time again in these situations, my team, coaching staff, everybody tells me it’s time to win.” Walker told reporters. “Coach put me in position to make plays. I just want to be as aggressive as possible. I was able to get my shot off, and I just wanted to be confident.” Lin added the highlight of the game when he banked in a 3-pointer and shrugged on the way down the court.

ABOUT THE HEAT (50-36, 45-40-1 ATS, 36-49-1 O/U): Miami was whistled for 26 personal fouls in Game 4, with starting guards Dwyane Wade and Goran Dragic combining for nine. “We’ve had some key guys in foul trouble,” Heat guard Joe Johnson, who did not commit a foul, told reporters. “For the most part, we were just trying to hold the fort until we can get those guys back out there. But it’s tough. We just kept fouling and kept putting them on the line. We have to make the game easier. The game has been so tough for us, especially in Charlotte. We have to make an adjustment.” Wade averaged 22 points on 19-of-38 in the first two games at home before slumping to 14.5 on 11-of-31 in Charlotte.

TRENDS:

* Hornets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
* Heat are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
* Over is 5-0 in Hornets last 5 road games.
* Home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.



Portland Trail Blazers at Los Angeles Clippers (+3, 197.5)

Series ties 2-2

The Los Angeles Clippers looked like things were finally breaking their way on the injury front, and then Chris Paul reached in for a steal. The fourth-seeded Clippers will be without their All-Star point guard and All-Star forward Blake Griffin when they host the fifth-seeded Portland Trail Blazers on Wednesday.

The MCL sprain suffered by Golden State Warriors point guard Stephen Curry on Sunday seemed to make the path to the Western Conference finals much easier for Los Angeles, but the path out of the first round got much tougher the next night. Paul reached in for a steal in the lane in the third quarter on Monday and suffered a broken third metacarpal on his right hand which required surgery on Tuesday that will keep him out for the rest of the playoff. Griffin, who missed over three months in the regular season with his own broken hand and a quad injury, re-aggravated the quad in Monday’s Game 4 loss and will also sit out the rest of the way. The Trail Blazers took advantage of Paul’s absence in Game 4 and outscored the Clippers 32-20 in the fourth quarter, marking the second straight game they pulled away late.

TV: 10 p.m. ET, NBATV, KGW (Portland)

LINE HISTORY: The Clippers opened as two-point favorites and the Blake Griffin injury news flipped the line on Tuesday afternoon. Overnight on Tuesday the line continued The total hit the board at 198.5 and came down a full point to 197.5 with no Griffin. Check out the complete line history here.

ABOUT THE TRAIL BLAZERS (46-40, 46-40 ATS, 44-42 O/U): Damian Lillard struggled from the floor in three of the four games in the series, including a 4-of-15 effort in Game 4, but Portland is picking up its star with big efforts from players like Al-Farouq Aminu and Mason Plumlee. Aminu scored a career-high 30 points on 11-of-20 shooting to go along with 10 rebounds, three blocks and three assists in Monday’s triumph after going 11-of-37 in the first three games. “It was just a matter of time,” Trail Blazers head coach Terry Stotts told reporters. “Obviously (Aminu) struggled shooting the ball the first three games, but that didn’t take away from what he was giving us defensively. It was good to see him break out. Everybody has been encouraging him and he’s put in the time and, like I said, it was just a matter of time before he had a game like that.”

ABOUT THE CLIPPERS (55-31, 42-41-3 ATS, 34-52 O/U): Los Angeles is focusing on the near future and trying to figure out a way to win two more games in this series. "We don't have to be the best team,” coach Doc Rivers told reporters. “We just have to be the best team (Wednesday). And then we have to figure out how to do it one more time." Paul averaged 26.3 points in the first three games of the series and had 16 before going down in Game 4 while Griffin, who aggravated the quad sometime in the second half on Monday and tried to play through the injury until the middle of the fourth quarter, averaged 15 points and 8.8 rebounds.

TRENDS:

* Trail Blazers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
* Clippers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games.
* Under is 5-0 in Trail Blazers last 5 games playing on 1 days rest.
* Under is 6-1 in Clippers last 7 games following a ATS loss.
* Under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Los Angeles.



Houston Rockets at Golden State Warriors (-9.5, 211.5)

Warriors lead series 3-1

The news wasn’t as bad as it could have been, but the Golden State Warriors will still be without MVP Stephen Curry when they attempt to close out the Houston Rockets at home in Game 5 on Wednesday. Curry left Sunday’s Game 4 after slipping on the floor at the end of the half and was diagnosed with a sprained MCL in his right knee.

Curry will sit for two weeks before being reevaluated, putting his availability for the next round in jeopardy should the Warriors, as expected, close out the eighth-seeded Rockets. The star guard was defending on the final play of the first half on Sunday when he slipped on a wet spot and had his right knee bend awkwardly on his way to the ground. "We said two weeks, but that's no guarantee that it will be in two weeks, might be after two weeks, might be before," Golden State general manager Bob Myers told reporters after an MRI exam on Monday. "But I think it will be somewhere in that range, hopefully." Houston had a chance to even the series with Curry limping around the locker room on Sunday at home and instead were outscored 65-38 in the second half of a 121-94 loss.

TV: 10:30 p.m. ET, TNT, ROOT Southwest (Houston), CSN Bay Area (Golden State)

LINE HISTORY: The Warriors opened as 9.5-point favorites and, although the line wobbled a bit down to -9, it currently sits at the same number that it hit began. The total opened at 214 and dropped consistantly down to 211.5. Check out the complete line history here.

ABOUT THE ROCKETS (42-44, 38-48 ATS, 48-38 O/U): The difference in effort between the teams was noticeable in the second half on Sunday, and Houston interim coach J.B. Bickerstaff was not afraid to call out his players after the game. “When the moment calls for us to raise our intensity levels, we dropped our guard,” Bickerstaff told reporters. “You could see the difference in the way that (the Warriors) played in that third quarter and how they scrapped and how they got every loose ball. You could see the intent in their guys’ eyes.” The Rockets allowed 41 points in the third quarter and now need a miraculous comeback for the second straight postseason – they overcame a 3-1 deficit to the Los Angeles Clippers in the second round last spring before falling to Golden State in the conference finals.

ABOUT THE WARRIORS (76-10, 48-36-2 ATS, 46-39-1 O/U): Golden State is already 1-1 in the series while playing without Curry, who sat out Games 2 and 3 with a sprained right ankle. The Warriors tend to lean on Curry’s epic scoring binges when the offense stalls, but All-Stars Draymond Green and Klay Thompson both stepped up in the second half on Sunday and are ready to carry more of the load. “It was the way we were moving the ball and trusting each other on both sides of the ball,” Thompson told reporters of the 41-point third quarter. “That’s what we’ve got to do to beat this team. We knew, as soon as Steph went down, we were going to have to do it by ourselves.”

TRENDS:

* Rockets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
* Warriors are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games.
* Over is 8-1 in Rockets last 9 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points.
* Over is 5-1 in Warriors last 6 home games.
* Rockets are 2-6 ATS in the last 8 meetings.

[StarDust Bum]

Wednesday's Top Action
April 27, 2016


CHARLOTTE HORNETS (50-36) at MIAMI HEAT (50-36)

Eastern Conference – Round 1
Tip-off: Wednesday, 8:05 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Miami -6.0, Total: 193.0

The Heat will be looking to get back on track with a home win in Game 5 over the Hornets on Wednesday.

The Heat looked like they were going to run away with this series heading into Game 3, but the Hornets were able to win-and-cover in each of their home games. Charlotte held Miami to less than 40% shooting from the field and the Heat have also coughed up the ball 15.5 times per game over the past two contests. The Hornets need to keep being aggressive defensively, as they are not going to win any high-scoring games with this Miami team.

One thing that does favor the Heat coming into this one is that they are 9-1 SU and 6-4 ATS when hosting the Hornets over the past three seasons. All 10 of those games also happened to have gone OVER the total. As for trends in this game, things aren’t necessarily leaning in the Hornets’ favor. Charlotte is just 0-9 ATS off two consecutive wins against division rivals since 1996. The Hornets are also facing a Heat team that is 9-1 ATS in home games after a loss by six points or less over the past two seasons.

SF Nicolas Batum (Ankle) is listed as questionable for Charlotte, which is already without SF Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (Shoulder) for the rest of the season. Miami, meanwhile, remains without PF Chris Bosh (Blood Clot) and SG Tyler Johnson (Shoulder) indefinitely.

The Hornets have shown a lot of heart in this series, as they could have rolled over and accepted defeat after double-digit losses in Games 1 and 2. Now this series is tied and Charlotte feels it has a great chance to advance to the next round. PG Kemba Walker (24.8 PPG, 1.3 SPG in playoffs) really stepped it up for the Hornets in Game 4, finishing with 34 points on 13-for-28 shooting from the field. Walker is shooting just 39.3% from the field in the postseason, but his team needs him to continue to be aggressive. He is far too quick for any of Miami’s guards to handle and he must use that speed to get to the rim. He’ll also need to continue to do a solid job defensively.

PG Jeremy Lin (14.8 PPG in playoffs) also played well in Game 4, finishing the contest with 21 points, three assists and two steals in 34 minutes of action. Lin is averaging 19.5 PPG in Charlotte’s two victories in this series and just 10.0 PPG in the team’s two defeats. It’s clear that the Hornets need him to be aggressive moving forward. He is relentless when attacking the rim and puts a ton of pressure on his opponents.

It’d also be big for the Hornets if SF Nicolas Batum (16.5 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 1.0 SPG) made a return in Game 5. Charlotte may have won both games that he sat out, but he is very important to this team. Batum gives this team yet another guy that can handle the ball and make shots from the perimeter. He also has good length and can help defend guys like Wade the rest of the way.

The Heat have really struggled since winning the first two games in this series and they desperately need SG Dwyane Wade (18.3 PPG, 6.5 APG, 5.3 RPG, 1.0 BPG in playoffs) to show up in Game 5. Wade is averaging just 14.5 PPG over the past two contests and he needs to score a lot more than that moving forward. He is this team’s best player offensively and needs to be aggressive on Wednesday. If he can attack the basket early on then he might get himself to the line for some easy points. Wade needs some of those, as he could use a boost in confidence.

PG Goran Dragic (12.5 PPG, 5.3 APG in playoffs) must also play better in this series. Kemba Walker has exploited him early on and Dragic needs to start holding his own moving forward. The Heat acquired him because they felt that he could play with any point guard in the league and he’ll need to prove that he can on this stage. Two guys that have been showing up for Miami are PF Luol Deng (20.3 PPG, 7.0 RPG in playoffs) and C Hassan Whiteside (14.8 PPG, 12.3 RPG, 3.0 BPG in playoffs).

Deng has been stretching the floor with his ability to hit the outside shot and Whiteside has been a menace around the basket. They’ll need to continue to play well in this series if Miami is going to win.

[StarDust Bum]

Wednesday's NBA Essentials
April 27, 2016

Eastern Conference - Game 5 - Series tied 2-2
Charlotte at Miami (-6/193), 8:05 p.m. ET - TNT

The Heat dominated the first two games in this series, setting a franchise-record by scoring 123 points in Game 1, then following it up with a 115-103 rout to go up 2-0. Center Hassan Whiteside made 17 of 19 shots as Miami shot over 57 percent in both victories. Then the series shifted to Charlotte, where everything changed.

Despite missing its best two-way player, Nicolas Batum, to a foot sprain that has cost him two games in this series, the Hornets gained their footing with a 96-80 Game 3 win where they locked in defensively and got a combined 33 points from sixth man Jeremy Lin and rookie Frank Kaminsky, who took Batum’s place in the lineup, offering a different look and shocking Miami with his assertiveness and versatility.

Game 4 was there for both teams. They each had terrific runs in what ended up being a one-possession game for the final 1:57, but rookie Josh Richardson missed a potential game-tying 3-pointer and Charlotte wound up with a pair of key last-minute offensive rebounds to help kill clock, holding off the Heat and evening the series. All-Star Kemba Walker scored a series-high 34 points, while Lin continued his exceptional play at home, adding 21. Miami defenders struggled to stay in front of the Hornets point guards, which makes for a major point of contention in this swing game.

In part, Whiteside dealing with a bruised thigh has had an impact, since he didn’t look like himself playing back in his home state, taking just 11 shots and averaging just 10.5 points after dominating in South Florida at a 19-points-per-game clip. Dwyane Wade shot the ball poorly in Charlotte, winding up 11-for-31 despite continuing to rebounds well. Wade has been a playmaker for Miami, averaging 6.5 assists and making sure everyone gets involved. One key x-factor in the series has been the Hornets strategy of leaving rookie Justise Winslow open for 3-point looks, taking their chances that he won’t be able to take advantage. Winslow went for 1-for-9 from beyond the arc at Time Warner Cable Arena after taking just two 3-pointers in Miami over the first two games. He’ll either have to start making his shots from here on out, or simply stop taking them. More than any other, that tweak from Steve Clifford has helped slow Miami, who averaged 82.5 points on the road after averaging 119 in going up 2-0.

Despite two straight ‘under’ winners in this series, VI NBA Expert Chris David expects a turnaround in South Florida. He explained, “I understand why the total continues to drop in this series but it’s hard for me to ignore the ‘over’ trends in the playoffs for Miami. The Heat scored at will in the first two games, which produced easy ‘over’ tickets. Including those winners, the ‘over’ has gone 10-2 in the last 12 playoff games at American Airlines Arena. Plus, the last 10 encounters in South Florida between the Heat and Hornets have all gone ‘over’ the number. I’m buying the high side on Wednesday.”

Including their regular-season meetings, the Heat and Hornets have split their eight contests. Each team has won on the other's home floor only once. Batum is expected to return for Charlotte but will come off the bench so as not to disrupt the team's rhythm.

Western Conference - Game 5 - Series tied 2-2
Portland (-3/196.5) at L.A. Clippers, 10:05 p.m. ET - NBATV

Everything we’ve seen in this series can now be flushed away and deemed irrelevant. The Clippers dominated both games at Staples Center to seemingly grab a stranglehold on the series that was expected to be the most competitive of the Western Conference’s first-round offerings, winning by a combined margin of 41 points. The Blazers won Game 3 96-88 behind Damian Lillard’s 32 points, pulling away in the final 2:36 after L.A. led 85-84. C.J. McCollum added 27 points, celebrating the night where he received his NBA Most Improved Player award in style. It was a nice night for a young team in front of their home fans, but most expected the Clippers would prevail in Game 4 to take control of the series and expedite the inevitable. Oddsmakers made L.A. a 3.5-road favorite. What happened next is so painful that long-suffering Clips fans are advised to avert their eyes for the rest of this preview.

By now, everyone knows what happened. Chris Paul broke his hand in the third quarter. Blake Griffin aggravated a quad injury in the fourth. Fearing the likelihood that Paul would be lost to the team the rest of the way, the Clips wilted without their leader, unable to overcome a hostile road atmosphere and a young team greedily pouncing on the opportunity in front of them. Paul had surgery on Tuesday and will miss 4-to-6 weeks, while Griffin has been ruled out the rest of the way. Now, it’s on the rest of the team to pick up the pieces. Everyone has already written them off regardless of whether they go out in this round or next. Oddsmakers have made the Trail Blazers a road favorite at Staples Center despite losing the first two games by 20 or more. This will be the first time in nine meetings this season where Portland is favored over the Clips.

Top sixth man Jamal Crawford is likely to stay in his role off the bench, but should play more minutes in helping Austin Rivers run the offense for the Clippers with Paul out. Veteran Pablo Prigioni will probably get a little more run, but he’s played just seven minutes over the first four games and hasn’t even taken a shot. Paul averaged 26.3 points and 8.3 assists over the first three games of the series and was having a solid Game 4 before swiping down trying to steal the ball on a Gerald Henderson drive. His production and leadership appear irreplaceable. The Clippers went 3-5 in the eight regular-season games Paul missed, so while playing without Griffin is something they certainly grew accustomed to, operating without their point guard is not something they’ve done well. Wesley Johnson, Luc Mbah a Moute, Jeff Green and Paul Pierce will help centers DeAndre Jordan and Cole Aldrich up front, while Rivers, Crawford and J.J. Redick will get the bulk of the backcourt responsibilities. It doesn’t help that Redick has been playing through a bruised heel.

Beyond their incredibly good fortune at the expense of a seemingly cursed opponent, the Trail Blazers have pulled their own weight thanks to a frontcourt that has really flourished and even picked up their highly-esteemed backcourt. Center Mason Plumlee has more than held his own with Jordan and has been utilized as a playmaker by Coach of the Year runner-up Terry Stotts, dishing out 26 assists over the last three games. After four points, five boards and no dimes in Game 1, Plumlee has become an invaluable x-factor, averaging 8.3 points, 15 rebounds and 8.7 assists over the last three contests. Al-Farouq Aminu comes off a ridiculous 30-point, 10-rebound game in which he tied a career-high with six 3-pointers made. He'd never scored 30 in the pros in a regular-season game, much less the playoffs. Mo Harkless and Ed Davis have been dependable off the bench up front, while shooter Allen Crabbe has been a weapon. Can their lack of experience in big games be overcome on the road as easily as it was at the Moda Center? That's a huge x-factor for the Blazers.

VI's David weighs in on the injury to Paul and the chances that the Clippers now have without the All-Star in the lineup, commenting that "replacing him won’t be an easy task, which was evident during the regular season. With Griffin out too that certainly spells even more trouble for Los Angeles but I wouldn’t run to the counter and back Portland, who has dropped nine straight playoff games on the road and is just 5-25 as a visitor in the postseason. Interestingly, the 'over' prevailed in seven of eight games the Clippers played without Paul."

Western Conference - Game 5 - Warriors lead 3-1
Houston at Golden State (-9/211.5), 10:35 p.m. ET - TNT

Stephen Curry's absence would normally be the biggest story in these playoffs, but the Clippers mishaps have overshadowed what will hopefully be a two-week hiatus for the league's top player. Even though the Warriors still have to get out of the first round with one more victory over the Rockets, there's no real drama in wondering whether they can considering he didn’t play at all in a second half they won 65-38 in Houston in Game 4.

Counting their two home wins to open this series, the Warriors are 41-2 at Oracle Arena this season, while the Rockets come in 18-25 in opposing venues. This will be their fourth game in Oakland, losing 123-110 in the regular season and by scores of 104-78 and 115-106 in this series.

James Harden scored 35 points, grabbed eight boards, dished out nine assists and actually played defense in a 97-96 Game 3 win, so he has to be at his best for the Rockets to even have a chance to beat the Warriors whether Curry is involved or not. He's shot 18-for-51 (36 pct) in the three losses and figures to see more of Andre Iguodala with Curry out of the mix here. Dwight Howard has actually been solid in the series, averaging 14.5 points and 12.3 rebounds, but he'll likely need more touches to significantly impact this one and teands to struggle to get position against Andrew Bogut and Festus Ezeli.

Besides Iguodala likely getting more minutes, Shaun Livingston will help the Warriors offer a different, longer look on defense to help offset the detriment of not having Curry around to strengthen the offense. Livingston is a terrific playmaker who you can post up and control pace through, so in the short-term, the Warriors shouldn't be troubled much. Shooter Ian Clark will also play an increased role.

While the Paul injury is expected to take a serious toll on the Clippers, David agrees with most pundits that the Warriors will get past the Rockets even without Curry.

“Even though the Curry is the league’s MVP, he’s only been on the floor for 39 minutes in this series, which would be over already if it wasn’t for a Harden jumper in Game 3. This matchup is still very much lopsided even without Curry and taking the Rockets on Wednesday isn’t a sound investment. Including the results in this series, Houston has gone 2-8 in its last 10 playoff games on the road and more importantly its 3-7 versus the number with six of the eight losses coming by nine or more points.”

[StarDust Bum]

Clips quickly go from blessed to cursed

Can you imagine being one of multiple bettors out there who jumped on the Clippers at 18-to-1 to win it all soon after the Stephen Curry injury news broke?

It was a shrewd play considering the potential payoff and the fact that the reigning MVP might not be available until it was too late to prevent Golden State from staving off elimination. A Grade I knee strain wasn’t the end of the world, but did loom as a major hurdle to the Warriors run at history. In the span of less than 10 hours, everything changed.

That smart gamble was suddenly cursed. Chris Paul broke his right hand trying to slap the ball out of Gerald Henderson’s hands on a drive midway through the third quarter. He knew immediately something had gone terribly wrong.

After undergoing surgery, it's likely Paul is done for the season and the Clippers are too. His recovery time is estimated at four-to-six weeks, which L.A. simply wouldn’t be able to survive without him.

The Westgate LV SuperBook has placed 60-to-1 odds on L.A. winning it all after Paul’s fracture.

Curry injury halts action, remains obstacle

Blake Griffin also hurt his left quad, ultimately sitting out the final 5:48 as the Trail Blazers coasted to a 98-84 series equalizer. He's done as well, so the Trail Blazers are now favored to get out of the West’s 4/5 series.

Consider that the Clippers actually went into Game 4 looking at it as a must-win. Curry’s injury created an incentive for the Clips to defeat Portland in five games since the payoff would potentially be an earlier start date for the Western Conference semifinals. Playing Golden State without Curry in Oakland would’ve mitigated a huge disadvantage, setting them up to have a commanding lead over the Warriors before the earliest time frame for a potential Curry return arrived.

Instead, Paul left injured. The Blazers dominated the fourth quarter 32-20. The series is a lock to go six games, which means the Western Conference semifinals wouldn’t start until May 1 at the earliest. Think the Warriors, already immense Trail Blazers fans for the evening, weren’t encouraged by what unfolded? No one wants to see anybody injured, especially other athletes, but there’s no question good fortune smiled on the defending champs. Clipper misery became Golden State’s rainbow after a rough day. If L.A. and Portland go seven games, Curry would be under no pressure to try and rush back. The Western Conference semifinals wouldn’t start until May 3, which would give him a chance at being cleared for a Game 3 without fear that he’s recklessly intruding on his recovery time.

Keep in mind, those dates are based on a best-case scenario provided there are no complications, but it appears the basketball gods are in favor of not having injuries sabotage Golden State’s run at a repeat. The Warriors have the task of finishing off the Rockets without Curry, something that seems to be a formality considering he didn’t play at all in the second half they won 65-38 in Game 4.

A wet spot on the floor at Houston’s Toyota Center took out the MVP, but it’s unlikely any of the Warriors return to the scene of the crime for a Game 6. Even without Curry, Golden State is favored by nearly double-digits over the Rockets and will have its formidable homecourt advantage in play.

How long Curry will ultimately winds up sitting out remains to be seen, but MRI results revealed a Grade I MCL sprain of his knee that will sideline him for at least two weeks until he’s re-evaluated.

Sportsbooks temporarily took all futures bets on projected Finals matchups, NBA championships and conference winners off the board as they awaited news on Curry, anticipating the Spurs and Cavs would pass the Warriors as favorites to win the title for the first time all season.

Once Curry’s MRI news came in, the Spurs were placed as 7-to-4 favorites at Westgate, while Golden State moved from 4-to-5 to 7/4 as well. Cleveland moved up to 3-to-1, OKC to 10-to-1.The Clips were at 18-to-1. Tuesday’s post-Paul injury update had the Warriors at 5-to-4, San Antonio at 9-to-5, Cleveland still at 3-to-1, OKC at an attractive-looking 12-to-1 and the Clips all the way down at 60-to-1.

The news that it was Grade I and not a Grade II also brought sighs of relief in the Bay area, since a more significant sprain would require a six-week recovery, costing him the rest of the season even if Golden State qualified for the Finals. As things stand now, he’ll take a few weeks off, watching his teammates eliminate Houston before likely missing the first few games of a series against either the Clippers or Trail Blazers.

Golden State values Curry’s long-term health and importance above all, so now it likely dodges the bullet of having to protect him from himself, especially since Curry has already proven he’ll push to play at all costs.

“He’s one of the biggest competitors I’ve ever been around,” Warriors forward Draymond Green said of Curry in an interview with USA Today. “That’s what flies so far under the radar for him. He’s so good, his shot is so great, his ballhandling is so great, the oopty-doo, and you forget to look at how competitive he is.

“He’s a (expletive) beast, and that’s what makes him who he is. He wants to be out there. He wants to play.”

That same inner drive that has fueled his ascent in becoming the NBA’s best player could’ve definitely worked against him here, since rushing back could’ve had major repercussions. Paul’s absence means he won’t be tempted, though that doesn’t mean Golden State is out of the woods, just that its task of surviving an ill-timed injury became far more manageable.

As things stand, I’d still look elsewhere in picking an NBA champion despite the Warriors catching a break. Before the slip and knee injury, Curry was returning from an ankle sprain that had cost him two games in the series and became an issue down the stretch, which leaves us to wonder just how much the pursuit of 73 wins will end up costing the Warriors in the long run.

Over the past few months, my concern over just how the energy that the defending champions were expending chasing the immortality the ’95-’96 Bulls had achieved was expressed multiple times. You could see the physical toll it was taking, specifically on Curry, who hadn’t been 100 percent since suffering a bruised lower leg on Dec. 28, then spraining his ankle multiple times over the final months of the regular season.

There have been games where he looked completely gassed, and despite the fact he was able to sit out the fourth quarter of so many games because Golden State had the result in hand, he still logged 2700 regular-season minutes. Now there will be the issue of regaining his rhythm and stamina upon returning, with the Spurs or Thunder taking no pity on him in a potential conference finals.

Golden State is incredibly deep and talented, but I’ve already had the Spurs as my projected winner all season, sticking by them even when the Warriors managed to win two key late games against them in full pursuit of 73 wins. The rationale was always that San Antonio would be the fresher team when late May rolled around due to how they handled the regular-season. Kawhi Leonard averaged 33 minutes per game, same as Curry, but ended up logging just 2380 due to injury. No Spurs player logged more action.

The Warriors will now have to win a few games without their superstar before easing him back in with the bullets flying. I don’t see them surviving this. A wet spot took out Curry, but the pursuit of 73 wins, which seems trivial without a championship to go along with it, certainly played a role. Stick with Golden State to win a second straight NBA title at your own risk, but at least the pursuit for those who have already backed the Warriors lives on.

They don’t have to rip up their tickets the way unfortunate Clippers-backers already have to.

[StarDust Bum]

Walton favored to be Lakers coach
April 27, 2016

The Los Angeles Lakers fired Byron Scott on Sunday Apr. 24 after the two worst seasons in the 16-time NBA champion franchise's history.

Los Angeles went 38-126 under Scott, including 17-65 in Kobe Bryant's farewell year.

Since Phil Jackson left the team in 2011, the team has been led by Mike Brown, Bernie Bickerstaff, Mike D'Antoni and Scott.

Oddsmakers at Sportsbook.ag have posted odds on who the next coach will be for the Los Angeles franchise.

Lakers Next Head Coach Will Be per Sportsbook.ag
Luke Walton 3/2
Ettore Messina 3/1
Kevin Ollie 4/1
David Blatt 10/1
Jeff Van Gundy 12/1
John Calipari 12/1
Jeff Hornacek 15/1
Mark Jackson 15/1
Brian Shaw 18/1
Derek Fisher 25/1
Nate McMillian 25/1
Vinny Del Negro 25/1
Jay Wright 40/1
Becky Hammon 50/1
Monty Williams 50/1
Nancy Lieberman 50/1
Phil Jackson 100/1
Magic Johnson 250/1

Odds Subject to Change - Updated 4.27.16

[StarDust Bum]

NBA ATS

NBA > (709) MIAMI@ (710) CHARLOTTE | 2016-04-29 19:00:00 - 2016-04-29 19:00:00
Play ON CHARLOTTE against the spread in Home games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season
The record is 23 Wins and 7 Losses for the last three seasons (+15.3 units)

-------------------

NBA MONEYLINE

NBA > (579) HOUSTON@ (580) GOLDEN STATE | 2016-04-27 22:35:00 - 2016-04-27 22:35:00
Play ON GOLDEN STATE using money line in All games after a win by 10 points or more
The record is 59 Wins and 11 Losses for the last two seasons (+35.1 units)

NBA > (577) PORTLAND@ (578) LA CLIPPERS | 2016-04-27 22:05:00 - 2016-04-27 22:05:00
Play ON PORTLAND using money line in All games off an upset win as an underdog
The record is 12 Wins and 4 Losses for the this season (+12.05 units)

NBA > (577) PORTLAND@ (578) LA CLIPPERS | 2016-04-27 22:05:00 - 2016-04-27 22:05:00
Play AGAINST PORTLAND using money line in All games in April games
The record is 94 Wins and 127 Losses for the since 1992 (-91.45 units)

--------------------

NBA TOTALS

NBA > (577) PORTLAND@ (578) LA CLIPPERS | 2016-04-27 22:05:00 - 2016-04-27 22:05:00
Play UNDER LA CLIPPERS on the totalin Home games second half of the season
The record is 8 Overs and 27 Unders for the last two seasons (+18.2 units)

NBA > (575) CHARLOTTE@ (576) MIAMI | 2016-04-27 20:05:00 - 2016-04-27 20:05:00
The record is 4 Overs and 20 Unders for the since 1992 (+15.6 units)

NBA > (577) PORTLAND@ (578) LA CLIPPERS | 2016-04-27 22:05:00 - 2016-04-27 22:05:00
Play OVER PORTLAND on the totalin All games as a favorite vs. the 1rst half line
The record is 28 Overs and 12 Unders for the this season (+14.8 units)

NBA > (577) PORTLAND@ (578) LA CLIPPERS | 2016-04-27 22:05:00 - 2016-04-27 22:05:00
Play UNDER LA CLIPPERS on the totalin All games against Northwest division opponents
The record is 5 Overs and 17 Unders for the this season (+11.5 units)

NBA > (577) PORTLAND@ (578) LA CLIPPERS | 2016-04-27 22:05:00 - 2016-04-27 22:05:00
Play UNDER LA CLIPPERS on the totalin Home games against Northwest division opponents
The record is 1 Overs and 10 Unders for the this season (+8.9 units)

[StarDust Bum]

4/26 - 3 - 1 ( 8 - 2 ) L / 2 Days )
Overall : 36 - 36

WEDNESDAY, APRIL 27

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

CHA at MIA 08:00 PM

MIA -5.5

O 194.0


POR at LAC 10:00 PM

POR -2.5

U 196.5


HOU at GS 10:30 PM

GS -9.0

U 213.5

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

-- Warriors 114, Rockets 81-- Not exactly a prideful effort by Houston.

-- Hornets 90, Heat 88-- Charlotte won three games in row after being down 2-0.

-- Blazers 108, Clippers 98-- Hard to win when your floor general breaks his hand.

-- Nashville 2, Anaheim 1-- Was first-ever Game 7 for the Predators.

-- White Sox 4, Blue Jays 0-- Surprising Pale Hose are 16-6, best record in AL.

-- Marlins 2, Dodgers 0-- Mattingly beat his old team the last three nights.

**********

Armadillo: Thursday's List of 13: Doing some thinking out loud.......

13) NFL Draft is tonight; since 1967, USC (68) has had the most first round draft picks, followed by Miami (58), Ohio State (56), Florida (46).

12) I enjoyed the mock draft on NFL Network this week, despite occasional screaming/yelling whenever Michael Irvin got involved. It was a little bit like a fantasy draft but without the laboring over picks, since mock drafts don't have any accountability, the way real teams or even fantasy teams have.

11) Giants' pitcher Jeff Samardzija was a pretty good WR in college; he scored 27 TDs and averaged 14.5 yards/catch.

10) RIP Ozzie Silna, former owner of the Spirits of St Louis of the old ABA, who reaped a bonanza from the NBA when he agreed to fold the Spirits before the NBA-ABA merger in 1976. One of the greatest business deals of all-time, Silna was paid millions and millions of dollars to do absolutely nothing.

9) Houston Astros are 7-15 and in trouble; its not just that they're losing lot of games, they're playing sloppily and their pitching has regressed.

8) Oakland and Detroit brought up their ace pitching prospects to make starts on Friday. A's will have Sean Manaea starting against Houston, Tigers gave Michael Fullmer the call to start against the Twins in Minnesota.

7) A's signed 36-year old lefty Rich Hill as a starter this year; Hill is 3-0, 1.42 in his first three road starts, but is 0-2, 9.00 in two starts at the normally pitcher-friendly Oakland Coliseum.

6) Detroit Tigers are paying Texas $6M a year for the next five years, part of the deal that sent Prince Fielder packing from the Motor City. As Billy Beane said to David Justice in Moneyball, "They're paying you to play against them."

5) San Diego Padres are 0-5 when James Sheidls starts on the mound; they've scored a total of six runs in his five starts. Padres are also the only team that hasn't scored a first inning run on the road this season (10 games).

4) Eric Byrnes is the only player (Oakland, 2003) who has hit for the cycle at AT&T Park in San Francisco. Pablo Sandoval is the last Giant to hit for the cycle-- would like to see a clip of the triple he hit.

3) Georgia Tech still owes former basketball coach Paul Hewitt $2.7M; he has not been the coach there since 2011. Quite a deal his agent made for him.

2) Columbia graduate transfer Grant Mullins chose Cal over Michigan; young Mullins is a 6-3 guard who shot 44.1% on the arc last year.

1) Cool thing about the NFL Draft is that no one knows what will happen when these college kids become pros this summer. Flash back to 1998, just as many people liked Ryan Leaf as Peyton Manning. How did that turn out?

[StarDust Bum]

NBA

Thursday, April 28

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NBA playoffs betting preview and odds: Hawks at Celtics
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Isaiah Thomas gave the Celtics and their fans quite a scare Tuesday night when he rolled his ankle in Atlanta.

The Atlanta Hawks are only one win away from punching their ticket to the second round of the NBA Playoffs. Game 6 will be held at the TD Garden and the host Boston Celtics will be playing desperate.

Atlanta Hawks at Boston Celtics (+2, 197)

Hawks lead series 3-2

The Atlanta Hawks found a formula to stop Isaiah Thomas in Game 5, and it brought them to the brink of a series win. The Hawks will try to stop a hobbled Thomas again and close out the series when they visit the Boston Celtics for Game 6 on Thursday.

The Celtics were already down 31 points in the fourth quarter of Game 5 in Atlanta when Thomas went up for a layup and rolled his ankle on the way down, effectively ending his night at seven points on 3-of-12 shooting in the 110-83 setback. Thomas, who vows to play in Game 6, averaged 35 points in home wins in Games 3 and 4 and was the clear focus of the Hawks defense in Game 5, with two players trapping every time he had the ball. “If we’re able to contain him, it gives us a better chance,” Atlanta center Al Horford told reporters. “We just wanted to be aggressive. (Thomas’) a guy that’s very capable.” The Hawks trailed by 10 points midway through the second quarter before exploding for 70 points over the next 18 minutes of the game and coasting through the fourth quarter.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, TNT, FSN Southeast (Atlanta), CSN New England (Boston)

LINE HISTORY: The Hawks opened as 1.5-point road favorites and on Wednesday morning the books bumped the line slightly to ATL -2. The total opened at 197 and has yet to budge off the initial number. Check out the complete line history here.

INJURY REPORT:

Hawks - C T. Splitter (Out For Season, hip).

Celtics - PG I. Thomas (Probable Thursday, ankle), PG A. Bradley (Out Indefinitely, hamstring).

ABOUT THE HAWKS (51-36, 44-42-1 ATS, 39-48 O/U): Atlanta handed out a combined 21 assists in the second and third quarters on Tuesday and buried 11 of 14 3-pointers in the two frames while surging into the lead. “(The shooting was) definitely contagious,” Hawks swingman Kent Bazemore told reporters. “What changed is we said, ‘just let it fly.’ (We) loosened up a little bit there.” Bazemore knocked down four 3-pointers to bounce back from a 2-of-10 effort in Game 4 and Atlanta got contributions from reserve forwards Kris Humphries (eight points in nine minutes in his first appearance of the series) and Mike Scott (17 points on 7-of-9 shooting).

ABOUT THE CELTICS (50-37, 45-41-1 ATS, 40-47 O/U): Boston shot 37.7 percent from the floor in Game 5, including 7-of-29 from 3-point range, and had no answer for the defensive pressure focused on Thomas. "They put two or three guys on me every time I touched the ball," Thomas said. "Their game plan was to let the other guys beat us. It should be a sign of disrespect to my teammates for (the Hawks) to put two on the ball every time I have it. Other guys have to step up and make plays, that's what it comes down to." Thomas expressed confidence that his teammates will be able to step up with the series on the line, and guard Marcus Smart will get one more chance in front of the home crowd after posting 20 points, eight rebounds and five assists in Game 4.

TRENDS:

* Hawks are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
* Celtics are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.
* Under is 5-0 in Hawks last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
* Under is 12-3 in Celtics last 15 games playing on 1 days rest.
* Home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.

CONSENSUS: The early consensus numbers are favoring the underdog Celtics (64 percent) and the over (59 percent).

[StarDust Bum]

NBA
Long Sheet

Thursday, April 28

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ATLANTA (51 - 36) at BOSTON (50 - 37) - 4/28/2016, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 16-35 ATS (-22.5 Units) in road games in all playoff games since 1996.
ATLANTA is 10-24 ATS (-16.4 Units) in road games in the first round of the playoffs since 1996.
BOSTON is 93-77 ATS (+8.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 23-14 ATS (+7.6 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
BOSTON is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 57-42 ATS (+10.8 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 99-82 ATS (+8.8 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 74-60 ATS (+8.0 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 38-24 ATS (+11.6 Units) after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 56-37 ATS (+15.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 36-25 ATS (+8.5 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game this season.
BOSTON is 96-130 ATS (-47.0 Units) in home games after allowing 105 points or more since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON is 8-8 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 10-6 straight up against BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
10 of 16 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




NBA
Short Sheet

Thursday, April 28

Atlanta at Boston, 8:05 ET
Atlanta: 33-19 ATS off a home win by 10 points or more
Boston: 5-15 ATS in home games after playing 2 games as an underdog




NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Thursday, April 28

Boston-Atlanta (A 3-2)
Home side won all five series games; Hawks lost by 8-9 in the two played here. Boston shot 46%/42.6% in two series wins, shot less than 38% in three losses. Celtics lost six of last eight games with Atlanta, with four of last five staying under the total. Eight of last 11Atlanta games stayed under the total, as did five of the last six Celtic games. Hawks were 12-43 on arc in Game 4, 14-35 in Game 5- they still need to attack basket more. Atlanta had way better balance last game, with six players scoring between 8-17 points.

Playoff tally: Favorites vs spread: 23-15, Over: 12-26




NBA

Thursday, April 28

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

8:00 PM
ATLANTA vs. BOSTON
Atlanta is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing Boston
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Boston's last 5 games when playing Atlanta
Boston is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing Atlanta

[StarDust Bum]

NBA
Dunkel

Thursday, April 28


Atlanta @ Boston

Game 701-702
April 28, 2016 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Atlanta
123.738
Boston
118.618
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Atlanta
by 5
192
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Atlanta
by 1 1/2
197
Dunkel Pick:
Atlanta
(-1 1/2); Under

[StarDust Bum]

Thursday's Top Action
April 28, 2016


ATLANTA HAWKS (51-36) at BOSTON CELTICS (50-37)

Eastern Conference – Round 1
Tip-off: Thursday, 8:05 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Atlanta -2.0, Total: 197.0

The Hawks will be hoping to advance to the second round with a road victory over the Celtics in Game 6 on Thursday.

Boston showed a lot of fight by defeating Atlanta in Games 3 and 4, but the team looked absolutely horrendous in Game 5. The Hawks had Philips Arena rocking on Tuesday, winning 110-83 as 7.5-point home favorites.

Atlanta shot 43.7% from the floor and held Boston to just 37.7% shooting.

The Celtics also turned the ball over a miserable 20 times in that one. If the Hawks can continue to put that type of pressure on the Celtics then this series will likely be over after this game.

One thing favoring the Hawks coming into this Game 6 matchup is the fact that they are 33-19 ATS off of a home win by 10 points or more over the past three seasons. They’re also facing a Celtics team that is just 2-10 ATS after five straight games of allowing its opponent to shoot 42% or less from the field this season. Boston is, however, 15-5 ATS when revenging a road loss of 10 points or more versus an opponent over the past two seasons.

C Tiago Splitter (Hip) remains out for the year for Atlanta and PG Isaiah Thomas (Ankle) is questionable for Boston, which is already without SG Avery Bradley (Hamstring) for the remainder of the season.

The Hawks are coming off of a huge victory in Game 5 and they’ll now look to secure a meeting with the Cavaliers in the second round. If Atlanta is going to win this one on the road then the team will need a lot more from C Al Horford (12.0 PPG, 9.4 RPG, 2.6 BPG in playoffs).

Horford has been miserable offensively this series, shooting just 38.6% from the floor. He has not scored in double digits since Game 2 and that needs to change on Thursday. He’s one of the most versatile bigs in the league and the Hawks need him to start knocking down shots soon.

PF Paul Millsap (16.2 PPG, 9.0 RPG, 2.4 BPG in playoffs) and PG Jeff Teague (17.6 PPG, 6.2 APG, 1.0 SPG in playoffs) are also going to need to step it up for the Hawks in this one. Millsap followed up a 45-point performance in Game 4 with just 10 points in Game 5.

Atlanta will likely need him to score at least 20 on Thursday. He’d be wise to get into the paint early, as he should be able to draw some fouls and get himself going at the line. Teague, meanwhile, will be playing against a banged up Isaiah Thomas. He’ll need to attack the rim and make him uncomfortable in this one.

The x-factor in this game could, however, be SF Kent Bazemore (13.8 PPG, 7.6 RPG, 1.4 SPG in playoffs). Bazemore came up huge in Game 5, finishing with 16 points and five rebounds in just 23 minutes of action. This Hawks team is nearly impossible to guard when Bazemore is hitting from the outside.

The Celtics have their backs against the wall heading into Game 6 and they’ll need a huge performance from PG Isaiah Thomas (24.0 PPG, 4.0 APG in playoffs). Thomas has been banged up lately and really struggled in Game 5, finishing with just seven points on 3-for-12 shooting from the floor.

He is, however, averaging 35.0 PPG at home in this series and should be amped up to play in front of the Boston faithful. If Thomas has any of his explosiveness back in this game then he should be fine. He will, however, need a lot of help from his teammates on Thursday. Two guys that might just provide the help are SGs Marcus Smart (11.8 PPG, 4.0 RPG, 3.4 APG, 1.2 SPG, 1.0 BPG in playoffs) and Evan Turner (14.2 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 4.6 APG, 1.6 SPG, 1.2 BPG in playoffs).

Smart is a relentless defender and has been playing well offensively. He knows how to get to the basket and has shot better from the outside recently. Turner, meanwhile, is a very good offensive player. He knows how to score in a number of ways, but he’s also a brilliant passer. Boston needs him to have a solid game on Thursday.

[StarDust Bum]

Game 6 - Hawks at Celtics
April 27, 2016

Atlanta will be looking for the kill shot Thursday night when it travels to TD Arena to take on Boston in Game 6 of their Eastern Conference first-round series. The winner of this best-of-seven set will advance to face Cleveland in the East semifinals. If necessary, Game 7 would be at Philips Arena in Atlanta on Saturday night at 7:00 p.m. Eastern.

Mike Budenholzer’s team hopes it’ll be prepping for the Cavaliers at that point. If the Hawks play like they did in the last 2.5 quarters of Tuesday’s Game 5, they’ll be doing just that.

Atlanta (51-36 straight up, 44-42-1 against the spread) took a 3-2 series advantage by virtue of a 110-83 win as a 7.5-point home favorite. The 193 combined points slithered ‘under’ the 198-point total.

When Boston led Atlanta 29-19 midway through the second quarter, you could hear a pin drop at Philips unless there were boo-birds in the air after another fruitless offensive possession from the Hawks, who were an abysmal 6-of-34 from the field to start the game.

However, when Paul Millsap scored on a bucket in the lane, it ignited his team to hit 10 consecutive shots, including three consecutive 3-pointers from Kent Bazemore in a span of just 87 seconds. By the time halftime arrived, Budenholzer’s bunch had a 45-37 advantage to hook up Atlanta first-half supporters (-4.5) with a winning wager.

The Celtics had led 20-15 at the end of the opening stanza, cashing first-quarter wagers as 2.5-point underdogs. With the eight-point lead at intermission, most books made the Hawks one-point ‘chalk’ for second-half bets. (Boston +9 adjusted)

Atlanta would cover that easily as it put the game on ice quickly in the third quarter. Boston briefly trimmed the deficit to five at 53-48, but then the Hawks got treys from Kyle Korver, Dennis Schroder, Mike Scott and Millsap to go ahead by 22 points. It would only get uglier from there.

Scott was the key for the Hawks. When they couldn’t buy a bucket in the second quarter, he scored five straight points and then his teammates loosened up. Scott scored a team-high 17 points on 7-of-9 shooting from the field. The University of Virginia product grabbed five rebounds and buried 2-of-3 launches from downtown in 21 minutes of playing time.

Bazemore and Teague scored 16 points apiece. Korver, who has always been an underrated defender, had five steals as Atlanta forced Boston to commit 20 turnovers. Korver finished with 13 points on 3-of-6 shooting from long distance. Millsap contributed 10 points, eight rebounds, six assists, one steal and one blocked shot.

Al Horford was terrific in the first two games of the series, averaging 20.5 points per game, but he’s been kept out of double figures in three consecutive contests. Horford missed his first eight shots in Game 5, going 2-for-11 from the field for the night. But the two-time national-title winner at the University of Florida always finds ways to help his team, and that was the case again Tuesday when he produced eight rebounds and four assists compared to just one turner despite being held to merely six points.

Thomas, who entered Game 5 as the NBA’s highest scorer in the playoffs to date, had 42 points in Game 3 and 28 in Game 4. He went scoreless in the first half Tuesday, however, and managed only seven points and one rebound while committing as many turnovers (three) as he had assists (three).

With the game out of reach early in the fourth quarter, Brad Stevens sent a substitute in for his All-Star guard. But before the next dead ball, Thomas turned his ankle. He gave an intentional foul at the other end and immediately jogged, albeit gingerly, to the locker room. Nevertheless, Stevens downplayed the injury and Thomas is listed as ‘probable’ for Thursday’s Game 6.

Evan Turner had a team-best 15 points in the losing effort. Jae Crowder, Marcus Smart and Jared Sullinger were also in double figures with 10 points apiece.

Boston (50-37 SU, 45-41-1 ATS) has won 30 of 43 home games outright this season while posting a solid 25-17-1 ATS mark.

Atlanta is 21-22 SU in its road games with a 20-22-1 spread record. The Hawks have failed to cover the number in six straight road contests. They are 1-3 both SU and ATS in four games at Boston this season. Furthermore, since winning Game 5 at the old Boston Garden in 1988, Atlanta has lost eight consecutive postseason games at Boston.

The Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas opened Atlanta as a one-point favorite for Game 6, while the total was sent out at 196.5 points. As of late Wednesday afternoon, the Westgate had the Hawks favored by two points with a total of 197, which is the lowest of the series to date. Atlanta is a one-half point ‘chalk’ for first-half wagers.

VegasInsider.com’s Chris David had this take on the side: “After the blowout loss in Game 5, the Celtics opened as one-point home underdogs and the early action has leaned to Atlanta. I’m not surprised by the move and it should be noted that the oddsmakers have been pretty good with their ratings on Boston this season. The club has been listed as home ‘dogs six times and they went 2-4 in those games but to be fair, those losses came against the four best teams in Golden State, San Antonio, Cleveland and Oklahoma City. It should be noted that both of the victories came against the Hawks.”

The ‘over’ went 3-1 in the four regular-season meetings between these clubs during the regular season, but the ‘under’ has cashed at a 4-1 clip in this postseason series. The combined score totals have been (in order) 203, 161, 214, 199 (despite going to OT) and 193.

The ‘under’ is 47-40 overall for the Celtics this year, 22-21 in their home outings.

The ‘under’ is 48-39 overall for the Hawks, 23-20 in their road assignments. They have seen the ‘under’ cash in six of their last seven games and eight of their last 10 (regardless of the venue).

David was taken by surprise when he saw the low total. He explained, “Even though the ‘under’ has gone 4-1 in the first five games of this series, I believe the oddsmakers made a mistake with the opener of 197 for Game 6 and the low number could have you leaning to the ‘over’ just based on season trends for Boston. This will be the eighth total listed under 200 points for Boston and the ‘over’ has gone 6-1 in the first seven games with the lone ‘under’ taking place in Game 5 of this series, which actually had a shot but the Celtics couldn’t buy a shot.

“Boston has posted 111 and 104 in the two games at home in this series, plus it has shown the ability to bounce back offensively after poor efforts. The team has been held under 90 points four times this season and they’ve posted 98, 111, 116 and 111 in the following games. I’m going to ride that trend again on Thursday and play Boston’s team total ‘over’ (97 ½) in Game 6 and I believe Atlanta will do its part as well, making me play the game ‘over’ too.”

Thursday’s tip in Beantown is scheduled for 8:05 p.m. Eastern on TNT.