The Bum's All You Need To Know About Big Dance Notes-Stats-Trends Etc. !

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB

Thursday, March 26

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NCAA Sweet 16 betting action report: Sharps showing up, WVU hot upset pick
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Wichita State Shockers vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish – Open: Pick: Move: +2

Following their win over Kansas in the Round of 32, the Shockers have drawn the early money from bettors, moving this spread as many as 2-points at some books. However, one Las Vegas veteran smells something fishy with this line movement.

“I don’t fully understand it,” Jimmy Vaccaro, oddsmaker at South Point Casino, tells us “I’m not calling it a ‘set-up game’ but I think there will be sharper money coming in on Notre Dame.”

Online, at Sportsbook.ag, Peter Childs saw similar money on the Shockers and tacked on extra points to their spread for this Thursday matchup. However, once the line hit WSU -2, wiseguys stormed back and bought Notre Dame as the underdog.

“We booked a ton of Notre Dame money and pushed this line back down to 1-1.5 points,” Childs tells us. “At Wichita -1.5, we’ve seen very good two-way action and I don’t see us moving off this line until we get closer to game time.”


North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Wisconsin Badgers – Open: -3.5, Move: -6

The news that UNC forward Kennedy Meeks will miss the Sweet 16 with a knee injury has forced books to adjust the spread for this big-name battle. According to Jason Simbal, vice president of race and sports for CG Technology in Nevada, Meeks is worth as much as 1.5 points to the Tar Heels spread due to this particular matchup.

“When we sat down to make the line we were thinking 3.5 or four, then when we heard (Meeks) was out, the line went to -6,” says Simbal. “You have a big guy who can run the floor like that, and North Carolina will have to run against Wisconsin, he’s worth a lot more against those big teams. Around 1.5 or two points.”


West Virginia Mountaineers vs. Kentucky Wildcats – Open: -14, Move: -13.5

This spread hasn’t moved much since opened as high as 14 points and what action has come in has been on West Virginia. Books are now dealing UK -13.5 but it’s the moneyline bets on the Mountaineers at +850 to pull off the upset that have caught the attention of sportsbooks.

“There’s already a good amount of action on West Virginia, and a lot of that is moneyline,” says Simbal. “A lot of people will throw the WVU moneyline on some parlays and many will lay the points with Kentucky, making this a game we need UK to win by one through 13. It’s a nice middle to have on a game.”


Xavier Musketeers vs. Arizona Wildcats – Open: -9.5, Move: -11.5, Move: -10

Early action is on Arizona to cover, moving this Sweet 16 spread to double figures. The Wildcats haven’t been tested in the tournament so far and bettors don’t see Xavier stepping up to the challenge. Most Nevada books have taken all smaller wagers on Arizona and expect the tourist crowd to keep that trend rolling into the weekend. Online is another story, however, where the Wildcats got as high as -11.5 before wiseguys bought back the Musketeers.

“Arizona saw a lot of action not long after opening, driving the spread to -11 and then -11.5,” John Lester, of Bookmaker.eu, tells us. “But on Tuesday, we saw some steam on Xavier so we adjusted down a point. Unless the public gets more involved, I’m guessing this one closes at -10.”

[StarDust Bum]

Sweet 16 - Midwest Regional

March 26, 2015


West Regional · Midwest Regional
Midwest Regional - No. 3 Notre Dame vs. No. 7 Wichita St. (CBS, 7:15 p.m. ET)
Venue: Quicken Loans Arena
Location: Cleveland, OH.
Betting Odds: Wichita St. -2, Total: 137.5

-- Wichita State (30-4 straight up, 17-14-1 against the spread) advanced to the Sweet 16 by virtue of comeback wins over Indiana and Kansas. In the opening-round victory over the Hoosiers, Fred VanVleet erupted for 27 points, two steals and four assists compared to only one turnover. Ron Baker overcame a cold shooting night (3-13 FGs, 0-5 3PFGs) to contribute 15 points, five rebounds, five steals and a pair of assists.

-- Gregg Marshall's squad got its dream matchup in the Round of 32. Kansas has been refusing to play its in-state rival during the regular season for years, but the Jayhawks had no choice last weekend. After falling behind early, the Shockers rallied late in the first half to take the lead going into intermission. They would pull away in the second half for a 78-65 triumph as one-point 'chalk.' Tekele Cotton led the way with 19 and 17 points, respectively. VanVleet also had six rebounds, six assists and four steals.

-- Notre Dame (31-5 SU, 15-13 ATS) has won seven in a row, including a road win at Louisville and neutral-court victories over Duke, North Carolina and Butler. Mike Brey's team is 5-2 ATS during its seven-game surge. The Irish advanced to the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2003 thanks to wins over Northeastern (69-65) and Butler (67-64).

-- After surviving a late run by Northeastern to move into the Round of 32, Notre Dame needed overtime to slip past Butler by a 67-64 count as a 3.5-point favorite. Steve Vasturia, who scored a career-high 20 points, drained a 3-pointer at the shot-clock buzzer to put his team up 65-61 with 1:21 left in the extra session. Jerian Grant put the game away with a lefty layup with 18.2 ticks left for a 67-62 cushion. Grant tallied 16 points, five rebounds and five assists, while Demetrious Jackson was also in double figures with 13 points.

-- Notre Dame has been an underdog seven times, compiling a 5-2 record both SU and ATS.

-- Wichita State has been a single-digit 'chalk' 11 times, going 7-4 versus the number.

-- The 'over' has hit in three straight for the Shockers to improve to 17-13 overall.

-- Totals have been an overall wash (13-13) for the Irish, but we should note that the 'under' is on a 4-1 run in their last five outings.

Midwest Regional - No. 1 Kentucky vs. No. 5 West Virginia (CBS, 9:45 p.m. ET)
Venue: Quicken Loans Arena
Location: Cleveland, OH.
Betting Odds: Kentucky -13.5, Total: 136.5

-- Kentucky (36-0 SU, 18-16-2 ATS) rolled to a 79-56 win over Hampton in its first-round game at the KFC Yum! Center in Louisville. The Wildcats led by 30 at the under-16 timeout in the second half, but they only moved ahead of the number twice (63-28 and 67-32). The Pirates were able to comfortably cover the spread as 34-point underdogs. The 135 combined points slipped 'over' the 134.5-point total thanks to Lawrence Cooks' back-to-back free throws for Hampton with 50 seconds remaining.

- -Karl Anthony-Towns led the way against Hampton with 21 points, 11 rebounds and three blocked shots. Andrew Harrison added 14 points, four rebounds and three assists without a turnover.

-- John Calipari's team got a tough test from Cincinnati for 30 minutes before creating some separation, but the Bearcats nonetheless took the cash as 14.5-point underdogs. UK got beaten on the boards by a 45-38 margin and Cincy had 21 offensive rebounds compared to only 12 for the 'Cats. Aaron Harrison hit three treys and scored a team-best 13 points. Trey Lyles finished with 11 points, 11 rebounds and a pair of blocked shots.

-- West Va. advanced to the Sweet 16 with victories over Buffalo (68-62 as a 4.5-point 'chalk') and Maryland. The Mountaineers got past the Terrapins 69-59 as one-point favorites. Devin Williams paced WVU with 16 points and 10 boards, while Gary Browne had 14 points and five steals in just 20 minutes of playing time. Browne, who missed the regular-season finale and the Big 12 Tournament with an injury, knocked down 3-of-4 from long distance.

-- West Va. (25-9 SU, 19-13 ATS) doesn't shoot particularly well from the field (41.2%) or 3-point land (32.0%), but it uses a relentless full-court press that forces more turnovers than any other team in America.

-- The win over Maryland was a vintage one for this year's Mountaineers. Bob Huggins explained, "We get 16 more shots than what they get. That's what we have to do. We have to get more shots. We shot 36 percent in the first half. They shot 55. And we led by one. Because we get more shots. That's what we are."

-- West Va. owns a 6-5 spread record with five outright wins in 11 games as an underdog. This is the Mountaineers' richest spot as underdogs. In their biggest previous situation, they covered the spread at Kansas as 9.5-point 'dogs.

-- West Va. freshman guard Daxter Miles Jr. provided bulletin-board material for top-ranked UK when speaking with the media Wednesday. Miles said, "I give them their props. Salute them to getting to 36-0. But tomorrow they're gonna be 36-1." Miles added that the Cats "don't play hard."

--WVU star guard Juwan Staten missed four straight games (foot) coming into the NCAA Tournament. However, he returned in style in the win over the Bulls by tallying 15 points and seven assists. Williams added 17 points and nine rebounds.

-- Calipari has won 20 of 23 NCAA Tournament games since arriving at Kentucky. However, one of those defeats came to West Va. in the 2010 East Region finals at the Carrier Dome in Syracuse. Joe Mazzulla exploded for a career-best 17 points to lead WVU to a 73-66 win as a four-point underdog.

-- Among coaches who have faced Calipari at least 10 times, only Huggins and Mike Jarvis own winning records. Huggins has the best record by far at 8-2, while Jarvis went 8-7 vs. Cal.

-- The 'under' is 21-15 overall for UK, cashing in four of its last six games. The 'Cats lead the nation in field-goal percentage defense (35.0%) and they're third in the country in scoring defense (53.2 PPG).

-- The 'over' is 14-12-1 overall for WVU, but it saw the 'under' cash in back-to-back games last weekend.

ODDS TO WIN MIDWEST REGIONAL - SPORTSBOOK.AG
School Odds
Kentucky 2/11
Notre Dame 7/1
Wichita State 15/2
West Virginia 20/1

[StarDust Bum]

Sweet 16 - South Regional

March 26, 2015

Winning the East Region of this season’s men’s NCAA Tournament became a wide-open affair once both No. 1 Villanova and No. 2 Virginia made early exits, so now it is up to the four remaining teams to stay hot with a trip to the Final Four. The first step in the process is two region semifinal matchups on this Friday night’s slate.

ODDS TO WIN MIDWEST REGIONAL - SPORTSBOOK.AG
School Odds
Duke 6/5
Gonzaga 6/5
Utah 5/1
UCLA 18/1

East Regional- No. 8 North Carolina State vs. Louisville Cardinals (TBS, 7:37 p.m.)
Venue: Carrier Dome
Location: Syracuse, NY
Betting Odds: Louisville -3, Total 130

The Wolfpack closed as 10-point underdogs in last Saturday’s third round matchup against Villanova, but they were clearly the better team that night in a 71-68 victory to propel them into the Sweet 16. They started this tournament with a tight 66-65 victory against No. 9 LSU as two-point favorites. NC State is 5-1 straight-up in its last six games with a 4-2 record against the spread.

Four of five starters scored in double figures in the win over Villanova and the Wolfpack dominated the boards by outrebounding the Wildcats 45-32. They shot 45.3 percent from the field, but they were just 3-for-11 from three-point range. On the year, NC State is averaging 70.4 points per game and it is hitting 43.7 percent of its shots from the floor. It is averaging 37.8 rebounds a game.

Louisville went 12-6 SU in its first season in the ACC and it capped things off with a thrilling 59-57 victory over Virginia in the conference tournament semifinals as a three-point underdog. The Cardinals squeezed-pact No. 13 UC Irvine in their NCAA Tournament opener as 8 ½-point favorites, but they won with authority their next time out as 2 ½-point underdogs in a 66-53 upset of No. 5 Northern Iowa. Louisville is still just 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games.

The hot hands for the Cardinals in this tournament have been senior guard/forward Wayne Blackshear and sophomore guard Terry Rozier. Blackshear scored a game-high 19 points and pulled-down seven rebounds against UC Irvine and Rozier led the way their last time out with 25 points and seven assists. Louisville is averaging 69.2 PPG on the year, but it has failed to reach that total in its last five games.

Betting Trends:

-- The Wolfpack are 5-2-1 ATS in their last seven NCAA Tournament games and they are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games against a team with a SU winning record. The total has stayed UNDER in 10 of their last 13 games in the NCAA Tournament.

-- The Cardinals have covered ATS in 11 of their last 16 games in the NCAA Tournament and they are 25-10 ATS in their last 35 neutral-site games. The total has stayed UNDER in six of their last nine games following a SU win.

-- North Carolina State beat Louisville 74-63 in the regular season as a 10 ½-point road underdog. The total went OVER the closing 132 ½-point line.

East Regional: No. 7 Michigan State vs. No. 3 Oklahoma (TBS 10:07 p.m.)
Venue: Carrier Dome
Location: Syracuse, NY
Betting Odds: Michigan State -2, Total 135 ½

The Spartans moved to the head of the class as favorites to win the East following their stunning 60-54 victory against Virginia as 4 ½-point underdogs. Michigan State started this tournament by beating No. 10 Georgia 70-63 as a six-point favorite. It is now 6-1 SU in its last seven games while going 4-3 ATS. The total has gone OVER in seven of its last nine games.

Senior guard Travis Trice matched his team-high season scoring average of 15 points in the win over Georgia and he raised the bar against the Cavaliers with a game-high 23 points while going 4-for-8 from three-point range. Michigan State is averaging 71.9 PPG and shooting as effective 47.1 from the field.

Oklahoma has quietly worked its way into the Sweet 16 with fairly routine victories against No. 14 Albany and No. 11 Dayton. The Sooners covered a four-point spread in their 72-66 victory over the Flyers their last time out, but they are still just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games. The total went OVER the 129-point closing line in that contest after it stayed UNDER in five of their previous six games.

The pair of guards in junior Buddy Hield and sophomore Jordan Woodard helped pace the win against Dayton with a combined 31 points and eight assists and junior forward Ryan Spangler came up big with 12 rebounds. The Sooners shot 44.9 percent from the field, but they were on fire from three-point range; hitting 9-of-18 from beyond the arc. On the year, Oklahoma is hitting 43.6 percent of its shots from the field and averaging 71.9 PPG.

Betting Trends:

-- The Spartans are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games outside the conference and they are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games against the Big 12. The total has stayed UNDER in seven of their last 10 games in the NCAA Tournament.

-- The Sooners have failed to cover in four of their last five NCAA Tournament games and they are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games following a SU win. The total has stayed UNDER in seven of their last eight games played at a neutral site.

-- These two last met in 2013 with Michigan State winning 87-76 in a game that ended as a PUSH with the total going OVER the 154 ½-point closing line. The Spartans have a 3-2 SU edge in five previous meetings with the series tied 2-2-1 ATS.

[StarDust Bum]

A guide to the NCAA Tournament's regional rounds

March 26, 2015

Kentucky still has a shot at history. Tom Izzo has Michigan State on another deep March run. Former mid-major monsters Gonzaga and Wichita State are still going strong.

OK, so maybe we won't get to see another celebratory fall by Georgia State's Ron Hunter, but the regional rounds of the NCAA Tournament are filled with some fantastic story lines.

Time to work on those excuses for missing work. This is going to be good.

To get you ready, we've got a rundown of the top teams, players and games to keep an eye on:

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TOP TEAMS LEFT

Kentucky. Don't know this by now, then you haven't been paying attention for the last six months. History is still a possibility.

Wisconsin. Still looking good for a repeat Final Four appearance.

Arizona. Playing its best basketball at the right time after a pair of dominating wins.

Duke. Made it look easy through its first two games.

Gonzaga. Decimation of Iowa was a thing of beauty.

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THE OTHER TOP PLAYERS

You know about the star players like Jahlil Okafor, Frank Kaminsky and Jerian Grant.

Here a few others to watch:

- Sam Dekker, Wisconsin. The athletic forward helps keep opponents from focusing too much on Kaminsky.

- Karl-Anthony Towns, Kentucky. The other talented big man - with Willie Cauley-Stein - in the middle of the Wildcats' mammoth front line.

- Kyle Wiltjer, Gonzaga. The 6-foot-10 former Kentucky recruit can shoot from the outside, score near the rim, drive to the basket - pretty much a match-up nightmare for any team.

- Tyus Jones, Duke. The facilitator of the Blue Devils' offense who hits big shots and gets the ball to big man Okafor where he wants it.

- Marcus Paige, North Carolina. Need a big shot, he's the Tar Heels' man.

- T.J. McConnell, Arizona. Scrappy, smart, finds a way to win. Likes to let out a red-faced howl when the Wildcats are on a roll.

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BEST GAMES

Wisconsin vs. North Carolina, Thursday in Los Angeles, West Region.

Duke vs. Utah, Friday in Houston, South Region.

Wichita State vs. Notre Dame, Thursday in Cleveland, Midwest Region. After their massive takedown of in-state rival - if you can call it that - Kansas, the Shockers next face Jerian Grant and the Fighting Irish.

North Carolina State vs. Louisville, Friday in Syracuse, New York, East Region.

Arizona vs. Xavier, Thursday in Los Angeles, West Region. Xavier coach Chris Mack was Sean Miller's top assistant for five years before Miller left for the desert. They may know a thing or two about each other.

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BEST MATCHUPS

DUKE'S OFFENSE VS. UTAH'S DEFENSE. The Blue Devils put up points in bunches, averaging 80 points per game. The Utes rely on defense, allowing just 57 a game. Battle of strengths will determine the Elite Eight bid in this one.

KENTUCKY'S ATHLETICISM VS. WEST VIRGINIA'S GRIT. Cincinnati had some success bumping the Wildcats around. The Mountaineers will try to do the same and love playing that style of basketball.

UCLA'S DEFENSE VS. GONZAGA GUARD BYRON WESLEY. The Bruins know all about Wesley. The Zags' senior guard was rival USC's leading scorer before transferring to Spokane. Wesley averaged 14.4 points and 5.7 rebounds in seven games against UCLA while playing for the Trojans and will be motivated to beat the Bruins again, even without the rivalry.

NORTH CAROLINA STATE VS. LOUISVILLE'S MONTREZL HARRELL. The Wolfpack are a strong rebounding team, but will they be able to keep the powerful Harrell from wreaking havoc?

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BY THE NUMBERS

.844 - Wichita State's winning percentage over the past five years, highest in Division I during that span.

3 - Number of teams from North Carolina still in the bracket: Duke, North Carolina, North Carolina State.

4 - Straight Sweet 16 appearances by Louisville.

4.4 - Average seed of the teams left in the Sweet 16. ULCA is the highest at No. 11 in the South.

12 - 3-pointers made by UCLA's Bryce Alford in 16 attempts through two games of the NCAA Tournament.

22 - Times Duke has reached the Sweet 16 under coach Mike Krzyzewski.

39 - Years since a team finished a season undefeated - in case you hadn't heard it enough already.

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Friday's six-pack

-- Watched the two CBS games on airplane coming home; technology is amazing.

-- I don't watch pregame/halftime shows very much, but friend of mine who knows stuff can't stand Kenny Smith on college games, says he doesn't add anything at all.

-- Jets' owner Woody Johnson sold his co-op apartment in New York for $77.5M.

-- Odd stat of NCAA tournament: Duke beat San Diego State easily last Sunday, but for whole game, they were 2-2 on foul line. Since when does that happen?

-- Dean Smith left every guy who played for him $200 each in his will.

-- Sean Miller is a terrific coach but is 0-3 in regional finals; he is a 1.5-point favorite Saturday against Wisconsin team that beat Arizona in this round last year.



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Armadillo: Friday's List of 13: Things I think about on a 5-hour flight........

13) Notre Dame 81, Wichita State 70-- Fighting Irish pass the ball, they shoot the ball, are great fun to watch. They'll give Kentucky a ballgame because of it, but it'll take a near-perfect performance to post an upset.

12) Wisconsin 79, North Carolina 72-- Tar Heels shot 8-13 from arc and still lost; Badgers got nine minutes off bench from PG Traevon Jackson; Gasser played 40:00, Kaminsky played 39:00. Badger bench played total of only 31 minutes.

11) Arizona 68, Xavier 60-- Game was tied at half, but Musketeers were 3-17 on arc, which isn't good enough to post an upset. Underdogs were 2-2 vs spread last night, are now 25-11 in this round the last 4.5 years. Its a sad commentary on our world today that Sean Miller will take some heat if Arizona loses to Wisconsin Saturday, since he is 0-3 in regional final games.

10) Kentucky 78, West Virginia 39-- Al McGuire once said, "The best thing about freshmen is they become sophomores", which I'm guessing is what Bob Huggins is thinking about freshman Daxter Miles' trash talk about Kentucky before this game, which might've been the worst game I saw all season.

9) West Virginia isn't good enough to beat Kentucky no matter what, but no one pays to watch referees blow the whistle; I can't remember a game where there were two fouls in the first 0:15- Devin Williams had two fouls in the first 1:14 and left with the score 0-0-- it was 18-2 within a flash after that.

8) Post-game press conferences are high comedy, when players are always referred to as "the student-athletes". Xavier's press conference took place around 1am ET on a Friday morning, about seven hours before classes begin on Xavier's campus in Ohio. Xavier's players are in Los Angeles. Just call them what they are, players. Some are good students, some are not.

7) If Texas is thinking about firing Rick Barnes, who exactly are they going to bring in who is better? He's been in 13 of last 14 NCAA tournaments, but hasn't been higher than a 7-seed since 2011- he is 35-37 in Big X the last four years, but I'll ask another question-- if you fire a guy with Barnes' overall record, is this really a good job? Not all changes result in improvements.

6) Correction: New Nevada coach Eric Musselman didn't work for Trent Johnson at LSU, he worked for Johnny Jones, who succeeded Johnson in Baton Rouge.

5) Bad night for Wichita State last night, and now it could get worse, as Alabama is going to throw $3M a year at Gregg Marshall and if he says no, there's a chance Texas could do the same thing. And for you cocky Kentucky fans out in Las Vegas? The day is coming when Calipari is going to go back to the NBA-- what you going to do then??

4) Victor Martinez homered Thursday, good news for my fantasy baseball team; he isn't and probably won't be catcher-eligible, but I still need his bat at DH.

3) Why would a business refuse service to anyone based on their sexual orientation? Indiana passed a weird and dangerous law this week-- everyone's money is worth the same amount, why should it be legal for a business to exclude gay people-- how would you know who is and who isn't? I'll say this; it sets a dangerous precedent.

2) Hardest part of vacation was dragging my butt out of bed a couple days at 10am to go down to the sportsbook and watch exhibition baseball games. My sleep clock gets all kinds of messed up on my trips to the desert.

1) You know it was a great vacation when it feels like you've been gone for a month when you get back and its only been ten days.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB
Dunkel

Friday, March 27

North Carolina State vs Louisville

Game 877-878
March 27, 2015 @ 7:35 pm

Dunkel Rating:
North Carolina St
69.286
Louisville
65.134
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
North Carolina State
by 4
126
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Louisville
by 2 1/2
130
Dunkel Pick:
North Carolina St
(+2 1/2); Under

Michigan State vs Oklahoma

Game 879-880
March 27, 2015 @ 10:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Michigan State
68.207
Oklahoma
69.751
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Oklahoma
by 1 1/2
131
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Michigan State
by 2 1/2
134 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Oklahoma
(+2 1/2); Under

UCLA vs Gonzaga

Game 881-882
March 27, 2015 @ 7:15 pm

Dunkel Rating:
UCLA
63.617
Gonzaga
75.710
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Gonzaga
by 12
149
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Gonzaga
by 8 1/2
143 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Gonzaga
(-8 1/2); Over

Utah vs Duke

Game 883-884
March 27, 2015 @ 9:45 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Utah
70.258
Duke
78.614
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Duke
by 8 1/2
140
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Duke
by 5
135
Dunkel Pick:
Duke
(-5); Over

Kent State vs Northern Arizona

Game 885-886
March 27, 2015 @ 10:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Kent State
57.675
Northern Arizona
54.518
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Kent State
by 3
140
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Northern Arizona
by 1
136 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Kent State
(+1); Over




NCAAB
Long Sheet

Friday, March 27

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NC STATE (22 - 13) vs. LOUISVILLE (26 - 8) - 3/27/2015, 7:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LOUISVILLE is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in March games over the last 3 seasons.
NC STATE is 37-23 ATS (+11.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
NC STATE is 37-23 ATS (+11.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
NC STATE is 20-9 ATS (+10.1 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
NC STATE is 53-33 ATS (+16.7 Units) in all neutral court games since 1997.
NC STATE is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) against conference opponents this season.
NC STATE is 61-39 ATS (+18.1 Units) in March games since 1997.
NC STATE is 27-12 ATS (+13.8 Units) on Friday nights since 1997.
NC STATE is 53-33 ATS (+16.7 Units) when playing on a neutral court since 1997.
NC STATE is 58-32 ATS (+22.8 Units) in all tournament games since 1997.
NC STATE is 30-17 ATS (+11.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
NC STATE is 20-9 ATS (+10.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons.
NC STATE is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons.
NC STATE is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road games versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game over the last 2 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 9-17 ATS (-9.7 Units) as a favorite this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
NC STATE is 1-0 against the spread versus LOUISVILLE over the last 3 seasons
NC STATE is 1-0 straight up against LOUISVILLE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MICHIGAN ST (25 - 11) vs. OKLAHOMA (24 - 10) - 3/27/2015, 10:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MICHIGAN ST is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) after scoring 60 points or less over the last 3 seasons.
MICHIGAN ST is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) in road games versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
OKLAHOMA is 1-0 against the spread versus MICHIGAN ST over the last 3 seasons
MICHIGAN ST is 1-0 straight up against OKLAHOMA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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UCLA (22 - 13) vs. GONZAGA (34 - 2) - 3/27/2015, 7:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UCLA is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in road games after a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons.
UCLA is 42-29 ATS (+10.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
UCLA is 42-29 ATS (+10.1 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
UCLA is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in road games in March games over the last 2 seasons.
UCLA is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.
UCLA is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game after 15+ games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
GONZAGA is 1-0 against the spread versus UCLA over the last 3 seasons
GONZAGA is 1-0 straight up against UCLA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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UTAH (26 - 8) vs. DUKE (31 - 4) - 3/27/2015, 9:45 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DUKE is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in road games after a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons.
DUKE is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in road games in non-conference games this season.
DUKE is 19-11 ATS (+6.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
DUKE is 12-5 ATS (+6.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.
DUKE is 12-5 ATS (+6.5 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game this season.
UTAH is 20-11 ATS (+7.9 Units) in all games this season.
UTAH is 20-11 ATS (+7.9 Units) in all lined games this season.
UTAH is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) when the total is 130 to 139.5 over the last 2 seasons.
UTAH is 25-12 ATS (+11.8 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
UTAH is 16-4 ATS (+11.6 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
UTAH is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
UTAH is 30-16 ATS (+12.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
DUKE is 52-77 ATS (-32.7 Units) in March games since 1997.
DUKE is 13-27 ATS (-16.7 Units) in road games on Friday nights since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

KENT ST (23 - 11) at N ARIZONA (21 - 14) - 3/27/2015, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
N ARIZONA is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) in all games this season.
N ARIZONA is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) in all lined games this season.
N ARIZONA is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in March games over the last 2 seasons.
N ARIZONA is 13-6 ATS (+6.4 Units) after a conference game this season.
N ARIZONA is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) off a win against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.
N ARIZONA is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
KENT ST is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
KENT ST is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
KENT ST is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in road games after a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons.
KENT ST is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road games in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
KENT ST is 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




NCAAB
Short Sheet

Friday, March 27

Sweet 16 Betting Trends

#1 Duke vs. #4 Utah

Duke 6-7 SU & 4-7-2 ATS in Sweet 16
Duke 5-8 Over/Under in Sweet 16
Duke 2-4 SU & ATS last 6 Sweet 16 appearances
Duke 1-4 Over/Under last 5 Sweet 16
Duke's last Sweet 16 appearance in 2013, where they beat MSU 71-61 as 2-pt Favorites (1-0 SU & ATS)
Duke made Sweet 16 appearances in 2013, 2011, 2010, 2009
Utah 2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS in Sweet 16
Utah 0-2 Over/Under in Sweet 16
Utah has not been to Sweet 16 since 2005

#1 Seed vs. #4 Seed

#1 seed 14-6 SU & 10-10 ATS when meeting in NCAA March Madness
7-13 Over/Under


#2 Gonzaga vs. #11 UCLA

Gonzaga 1-4 SU, 1-3-1 ATS in Sweet 16
Gonzaga 0-4 SU, 1-3 ATS L4 Sweet 16 appearances
Gonzaga hasn't been in Sweet 16 since 2009, where they lost 98-77 to North Carolina
UCLA 4-5 SU, 1-8 ATS in Sweet 16
UCLA 4-1 Over/Under L5 in Sweet 16

#2 Seed vs. #11 Seed

#2 seed 7-0 SU & 4-2-1 ATS when meeting in NCAA March Madness
3-4 Over/Under


#3 Oklahoma vs. #7 Michigan State

Oklahoma 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in Sweet 16
Oklahoma 2-2 Over/Under L4 in Sweet 16
Oklahoma's last appearance in Sweet 16 was in 2009
Michigan St 8-4 SU & 6-6 ATS in Sweet 16
MSU 3-9 Over/Under in Sweet 16
MSU 0-3 ATS L3 in Sweet 16 - 2014, 2013, 2012
MSU 0-3 Over/Under L3 in Sweet 16 2014, 2013, 2012
MSU's last appearance in Sweet 16 was last year (2014), where they beat Virginia 61-59 as 3-pt Favorites (1-0 SU, 0-1 ATS)

#3 Seed vs. #7 Seed

Since 2012, #7 seed is 2-0 SU & ATS in NCAA March Madness


#4 Louisville vs. #8 NC State

Louisville 6-2 SU & ATS in Sweet 16
Louisville 4-2 Over/Under L6 Sweet 16 appearances, 2-0 Over/Under L2 years (2014, 2013)
Louisville's last Sweet 16 appearance was last year (2014), where they lost 74-69 to Kentucky
NC State 0-2 SU & 1-1 ATS in only 2 Sweet 16 appearances
NC State 0-2 Over/Under in Sweet 16
NC State's last appearance was in 2012, where they lost 60-57, but covered as 9-pt Dogs

#4 Seed vs. #8 Seed

#4 seed 1-4 SU & ATS in L6 meetings in NCAA March Madness
2-2 Over/Under




NCAAB

Friday, March 27

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Trend Report
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7:15 PM
UCLA vs. GONZAGA
No trends available
Gonzaga is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Gonzaga's last 5 games

7:37 PM
NORTH CAROLINA STATE vs. LOUISVILLE
No trends available
Louisville is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
Louisville is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games

9:45 PM
UTAH vs. DUKE
No trends available
Duke is 14-1 SU in its last 15 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Duke's last 7 games

10:00 PM
KENT STATE vs. NORTHERN ARIZONA
Kent State is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Northern Arizona's last 6 games
Northern Arizona is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

10:07 PM
MICHIGAN STATE vs. OKLAHOMA
No trends available
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oklahoma's last 7 games
Oklahoma is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB

Friday, March 27


Friday's NCAAB tournament betting cheat sheet

UCLA Bruins vs. Gonzaga Bulldogs (-8.5, 145.5)

The Bruins have won six of their last seven games with the only defeat in that stretch coming in a tight setback against Arizona in the Pac-12 tournament semifinals. Their first two wins in the Big Dance have proven that UCLA can win with defense (60-59 versus SMU) and with offense (92-75 against UAB), while Bryce Alford has been a constant in both games, averaging 24.5 points on 12-of-16 3-point shooting. “People are going to say whatever they want,” said Alford, who averages 15.6 points, second on the team to Norman Powell (16.4). “But when you look back on it, we’ve been in the Sweet 16 last year, and we’re there again this year. That doesn’t just happen. You’ve got to win big games to do that.”

The Bulldogs are the nation's best shooting team (52.4 percent) and also rank in the top 10 nationally in scoring (79.1, 10th) and assists (16.5, sixth). “It’s without a doubt the best offensive team I’ve ever been associated with,” said coach Mark Few, whose team is led in scoring by Wiltjer (17.1 points) and Kevin Pangos (11.8). “The firepower, the versatility, the ability to share the ball.” Wiltjer is 12-of-17 from 3-point range in his last four games, while Pangos is 12-of-22 from the arc during that span.

LINE HISTORY: Books opened Gonzaga at anywhere form -9.5 to -8.

TRENDS:

* Over is 5-0 in Bulldogs last five overall.
* Bruins are 1-7 ATS in their last eight vs. West Coast.
* Over is 9-4 in Bruins last 13 NCAA Tournament games.


North Carolina State Wolfpack vs. Louisville Cardinals (-3, 130)

The Wolfpack received clutch play from two young forwards in the upset of Villanova, getting double-doubles from freshman Abdul-Malik Abu (13 points, 12 rebounds) and sophomore Lennard Freeman (11 points, 12 rebounds), more than doubling their season averages in each category. “They were relentless rebounding the basketball; that was the difference for us offensively,” N.C. State coach Mark Gottfried told The News & Observer. Anthony Barber (12.3 points, 3.7 assists), who Pitino credited for “dominating the game” after scoring 21 points in the first meeting, is averaging 15.8 points over his last 13 contests after failing to reach 16 in all but three of his first 21 games.

Freshman Quentin Snider (3.8 points) has replaced suspended senior guard Chris Jones in the starting lineup and averaged 13 points and 4.5 rebounds during the Cardinals’ two NCAA Tournament wins. “I don't know what we expected from Quentin Snider; we didn't expect this, to be honest with you. He doesn't get nervous at all, he's a cool customer … and he's gotten a lot better defensively,” Pitino said after the Northern Iowa victory. Leading scorers Terry Rozier (17.2 points) and Montrezl Harrell (15.4) were held to seven points apiece on Feb. 14 – the only game this season in which both players were held to single figures.

LINE HISTORY: Books opened Louisville either -2 or -2.5.

TRENDS:

* Wolfpack are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall.
* Cardinals are 2-6 ATS in their last eight vs. Atlantic Coast.
* Under is 10-3-1 in Cardinals last 14 overall.


Utah Utes vs. Duke Blue Devils (-5.5, 133.5)

The Utes got past Georgetown 75-64 their last time out as four players scored in double figures, led by gritty point guard Brandon Taylor, who went 4-of-8 from 3-point range en route to 14 points. “He can knock it down. He is really good," said Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski, whose other compliments included "Wright is one of the top guards in the country" and Poeltl "is a really good player and he is going to be a big-time pro." Dakarai Tucker has given Utah a boost off the bench in this event, totaling 20 points on 60 percent shooting in the last two rounds.

The Blue Devils are 14-1 in their last 15 games and have held five of their last seven opponents below 57 points, although their overall defensive ranking still sits at 131st nationally. Freshman wing Justise Winslow, a Houston native, has been overshadowed by Okafor all season, although his numbers in this tournament - 9.5 points, 11.5 rebounds, six assists, two steals, two blocks - have provided a huge boost. "It’s big," Cook told reporters after Winslow's terrific all-around effort in the round of 32 win against San Diego State. "I know (Winslow)’s going to see all his family - all his family is going to be there. It’s just great to move onto the next round. I know one of his goals was to get to a Final Four, so we got (to Houston), where we can complete it."

LINE HISTORY: Oddsmakers opened the Blue Devils as 5-point favorites.

TRENDS:

* Under is 4-0 in Blue Devils last four overall.
* Blue Devils are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.
* Utes are 5-1 ATS in their last six neutral site games.


Michigan State Spartans vs. Oklahoma Sooners (+2, 134.5)

The Spartans, who have won 10 of their last 13 games with two of the losses coming against No. 1 West seed Wisconsin, held Georgia and Virginia to 31.6 percent shooting from the field and 19.4 percent from 3-point range. Branden Dawson, a 6-6 senior swingman, is averaging 14.5 points and 7.5 rebounds in the tournament while senior guard and leading scorer Travis Trice (15 points per game) scored 23 versus Virginia and 15 against Georgia. Michigan State, which has led for more than 76 minutes in its two NCAA games, must improve from the free-throw line as it has converted 31-of-52 in the tournament.

Lon Kruger has utilized the same starting lineup in every game this season with junior guard Buddy Hield - the Big 12 Player of the Year - leading the way at 17.3 points per game after scoring 15 in each of the Sooners' two NCAA contests. The Sooners also possess a pair of threats down low in senior forward TaShawn Thomas (11.4 points, 6.5 rebounds) and junior forward Ryan Spangler (9.9, 8.2), who grabbed 23 boards in the last two contests. Oklahoma, which is in the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2009, has 423 assists against 412 turnovers in 34 games - compared to 607 and 410 in 36 contests for Michigan State.

LINE HISTORY: The Sooners opened anywhere from 1-point faves to +2.5.

TRENDS:

* Spartans are 7-1 ATS in their last eight non-conference games.
* Sooners are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
* Under is 7-1 in Sooners last eight neutral site games.

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Saturday's six-pack

-- RIP Hot Rod Hundley, the former West Virginia sharpshooter who was a beloved announcer for the Utah Jazz for many years.

-- Good to see Tim McCarver will be doing 40 games on TV for the Cardinals; he was really good when he worked every day for the Mets, not so much on network TV. That happens to lot of analysts; need to work a lot to be good.

-- Gonzaga 74, UCLA 62-- Zags get to first Final Four if they beat Duke Sunday.

-- Louisville 75, NC State 65-- Rick Pitino is a really, really good coach.

-- Duke 63, Utah 57-- Third foul on Utes' star Wright was a joke; was 2-point game when it happened. Duke then scored the next seven points.

-- Michigan State 62, Oklahoma 58-- Spartans were down double digits in first half.



**********

Armadillo: Saturday's List of 13: Some baseballl prop bets for 2015.....

What follows are from a sheet of prop bets I picked up in Las Vegas this week......the object is to pick whether the player will go over/under the listed number
13) Most home runs, any player: 43.5, under -$120

12) Most hits, any player: 208

11) Most RBI, any player: 125.5

10) Most wins, any pitcher: 21

9) Total wins for Clayton Kershaw, 18

8) Total home runs by Bryce Harper, 24.5

7) Most complete games by any pitcher, 6

6) Total hits by Mike Trout, 173.5

5) Total wins, Gerrit Cole, 11.5

4) Total home runs, Edwin Encarnacion, 34.5

3) Total home runs, Andrew McCutchen, 23.5

2) Total wins, Felix Hernandez, 14.5

1) Total home runs, Yasiel Puig, 20.5

We'll post some more of these as the season approaches......

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB
Dunkel

Saturday, March 28


Notre Dame vs Kentucky

Game 511-512
March 28, 2015 @ 8:45 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Notre Dame
66.462
Kentucky
81.057
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Kentucky
by 14 1/2
132
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Kentucky
by 11
136 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Kentucky
(-11); Under

Arizona vs Wisconsin

Game 513-514
March 28, 2015 @ 6:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Arizona
80.595
Wisconsin
77.181
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Arizona
by 3 1/2
130
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Arizona
by 1
133 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Arizona
(-1); Under

Canisius vs New Jersey Tech

Game 515-516
March 28, 2015 @ 7:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Canisius
58.225
New Jersey Tech
57.335
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Canisius
by 1
146
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New Jersey Tech
by 2 1/2
141 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Canisius
(+2 1/2); Over




NCAAB
Long Sheet

Saturday, March 28

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NOTRE DAME (32 - 5) vs. KENTUCKY (37 - 0) - 3/28/2015, 8:45 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KENTUCKY is 77-54 ATS (+17.6 Units) in March games since 1997.
KENTUCKY is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
NOTRE DAME is 1-0 against the spread versus KENTUCKY over the last 3 seasons
NOTRE DAME is 1-0 straight up against KENTUCKY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ARIZONA (34 - 3) vs. WISCONSIN (34 - 3) - 3/28/2015, 6:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WISCONSIN is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
WISCONSIN is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
WISCONSIN is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in road games versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 23-14 ATS (+7.6 Units) in all games this season.
ARIZONA is 23-14 ATS (+7.6 Units) in all lined games this season.
ARIZONA is 22-14 ATS (+6.6 Units) as a favorite this season.
ARIZONA is 36-25 ATS (+8.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 12-5 ATS (+6.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.
ARIZONA is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
WISCONSIN is 1-0 against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
WISCONSIN is 1-0 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CANISIUS (18 - 14) at NEW JERSEY TECH (20 - 11) - 3/28/2015, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CANISIUS is 15-3 ATS (+11.7 Units) after scoring 80 points or more over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Saturday, March 28

Kentucky's last seven wins are all by 13+ points; they hold opponents to 26.7% on arc, their defensive eFG% is 38.9%, #1 in country. Wildcats are 2-0 vs ACC teams this season, beating North Carolina by 14, Louisville by 8. Notre Dame has #1 offensive eFG% in nation (58.5%), making 39.2% on arc, 58.4% inside it; Fighting Irish won last eight games; their non-ACC schedule has been 6th-easiest in country. ACC teams are 9-10 vs spread this postseason, 4-1 as underdogs; Kentucky is 1-2 vs spread in NCAA tournament; no sense grouping them in with rest of SEC teams. Since '09, 1-seeds are 5-8 vs spread in regional finals.

Wisconsin (+3.5) beat Arizona 64-63 in OT in this game LY, exact same scenario as this one; Sean Miller is 0-3 in regional finals, but Arizona won its last 14 games overall- they beat Michigan by 27 in only game against Big 14 team this year. Badgers won last nine games, beating Oregon by 7 last weekend. Big 14 teams are 6-8 vs spread this postseason, 2-4 as an underdog. Pac-12 teams are 9-6 vs spread, 5-4 when favored. You look at regional finals between 1-2 seeds: since 2003, 2-seeds are 10-4 SU against 1-seeds in regional finals. In West Region finals, underdogs are 14-3 vs the spread the last 17 years.

NIT games

CBI games

CIT tournament
NJIT is an independent that is playing 10th straight home game, winning last three D-1 games- they scored 82 ppg in winning first two games in this tournament, beating UNH/Cleveland State. Canisius won six of last eight games, scoring 84.5 ppg in beating Dartmouth, Bowling Green in first two games of this tournament- they won last three true road games. MAAC teams are 3-2 vs spread this postseason, 2-1 as an underdog.




NCAAB

Saturday, March 28

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

6:09 PM
ARIZONA vs. WISCONSIN
No trends available
Wisconsin is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Wisconsin's last 6 games

8:49 PM
NOTRE DAME vs. KENTUCKY
No trends available
Kentucky is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing Notre Dame
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kentucky's last 7 games

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB

Saturday, March 28

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Saturday's NCAAB betting cheat sheet: Elite Eight
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Arizona Wildcats vs. Wisconsin Badgers (+1.5, 134)

If it feels like Wisconsin and Arizona just played each other for a berth in the Final Four, it's because they did. The Badgers and Wildcats meet in the Elite Eight for the second straight year Saturday when they face off in Los Angeles in the West Regional final. Frank Kaminsky scored 28 points - six in overtime - and added 11 rebounds as Wisconsin won last year's matchup 64-63 to lift the Badgers to their first Final Four since 2000.

That Wisconsin team was seeded No. 2 while this year's top-seeded Badgers return many of the same faces, including Kaminsky - the potential National Player of the Year - and versatile forwards Sam Dekker and Nigel Hayes. Arizona was the No. 1 seed a year ago, while the current crop of second-seeded Wildcats is led by a new face in freshman swingman Stanley Johnson, who is surrounded by a familiar group of veterans. Arizona has not been to the Final Four since 2001, losing each of its last four trips by a total of seven points.

TV: 6:09 p.m. ET, TBS

LINE HISTORY: Books opened Wisconsin between +1 and +2, with a total of 134.

ABOUT ARIZONA (34-3 SU, 23-14 ATS, 16-21 O/U): The Wildcats carry a 14-game winning streak into Saturday as they look to build off Thursday's 68-60 triumph versus Xavier in which T.J. McConnell posted 17 points and Kaleb Tarczewski added 12 points and 12 rebounds. "The next step is a big one," Arizona coach Sean Miller said after his team shot 17-of-19 from the foul line while committing only eight turnovers. "The fact that we're playing Wisconsin ... it's almost as if we had a summer to think about it, and we have to somehow make that to our advantage." The Wildcats could benefit from more production from Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, who is 4-of-16 from the field over the last two games and managed only two rebounds against Xavier after averaging 10.3 boards in the previous four contests.

ABOUT WISCONSIN (34-3 SU, 19-17-1 ATS, 17-20 O/U): The Badgers outlasted North Carolina 79-72 on Thursday as Dekker scored a career-high 23 points and grabbed 10 rebounds for his first double-double of the season. Kaminsky contributed 19 points and averages team highs of 18.4 points and 8.1 rebounds for a Wisconsin team that has scored at least 70 points in eight straight games. "These guys have been through a lot. They've seen the good runs. They've seen the bad runs," Badgers coach Bo Ryan said to the media. "But this group never gets discouraged to the point where they get down on themselves or their teammates, and that's what's fun."

TRENDS:

*Wildcats are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 NCAA Tournament games.
*Badgers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. Pacific-12.
*Under is 6-1 in Wildcats last 7 neutral site games.
*Under is 6-2 in Badgers last 8 Saturday games.

CONSENSUS: Per Consensus, 62 percent of wagers are on the Badgers.



Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Kentucky Wildcats (-11.5, 137)

If Kentucky didn't make a big enough statement during the first 4 1/2 months of the season, Thursday's performance put Notre Dame - and the rest of the NCAA Tournament field - on high alert. The top-seeded and undefeated Wildcats are coming off one of the most impressive wins in recent NCAA Tournament history and hope to follow up that performance when they face the Fighting Irish in Saturday's Midwest Regional final from Cleveland. The winner of this game heads to the Final Four - a concept that is much more familiar for the Wildcats than the Irish.

Kentucky went to the Final Four in 2011, won the NCAA Tournament in 2012 and finished as the national runner-up in 2014, while Notre Dame has not reached the Final Four since 1978. The third-seeded Irish shot 75 percent in the second half in Thursday's 81-70 victory over Wichita State - their eighth straight win. The Wildcats, of course, have won every game they have played since losing to Connecticut in last year's title game, but few of those wins have been more impressive than Thursday's 78-39 rout of West Virginia.

TV: 8:49 p.m. ET, TBS

LINE HISTORY: Kentucky opened at 11-point favorites before quickly moving to 11.5. The opening total of 137 has yet to move.

ABOUT NOTRE DAME (32-5 SU, 16-13 ATS, 14-13 O/U): The Irish placed four players in double figures on Thursday, led by Zach Auguste (20 points), while All-American candidate Jerian Grant chipped in nine points and 11 assists. Notre Dame is the second-best shooting team in the nation (51 percent), while five players on the team - paced by Pat Connaughton (92) - have drained at least 40 3-pointers. "I'm sure whenever it ends I'll be able to look back and (say) it's been an amazing season for us," Notre Dame coach Mike Brey told reporters, adding "I don't know if we've had a more special season in the history of our basketball program."

ABOUT KENTUCKY (37-0 SU, 19-16-2 ATS, 15-22 O/U): The Wildcats became the first team to ever double-up an opponent this late in the NCAA Tournament, while their 39-point margin of victory matched a Sweet 16 record and their 39 points allowed marked the fewest given up in the Sweet 16 since 1975. Trey Lyles (14 points) and Andrew Harrison (13) led five players in double figures for Kentucky, which limited West Virginia to 24.1 percent shooting. "They were what I thought they were," West Virginia coach Bob Huggins told reporters. "That's the best defensive team I think that I've ever coached against. And when they're making shots, there's nobody going to beat them."

TRENDS:

*Fighting Irish are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
*Wildcats are 12-3-2 ATS in their last 17 neutral site games.
*Under is 13-3-1 in Fighting Irish last 17 NCAA Tournament games.
*Favorite is 7-0 ATS in the last 7 meetings.

CONSENSUS: Fifty-eight percent of Consensus players are on the underdog Fighting Irish.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB

Saturday, March 28

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NCAA tournament biggest betting mismatches: Elite Eight
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Kentucky Wildcats (-11, 136)

Irish’s short bench vs. Wildcats’ talent surplus

Even when Kentucky wasn’t playing its best this season, it would prevail simply because it had more talent to choose from. So if one of its starters was having an off night, a reserve would step up. John Calipari goes deep - like “fish with lights on their head” deep – down his bench and has eight players averaging more than 20 minutes of floor time per game. It’s like a relentless tide of talent, with wave after wave of 5-star recruit smashing the ball in your face.

Notre Dame doesn’t have quite as deep a talent pool. And by pool, we mean puddle. Mike Brey runs a seven-man rotation with four players racking up 32 or more minutes per game. The Irish not only are outgunned in this matchup but not having a reliable bench to turn to is A: Rough when making adjustments and B: Rough in a tournament format on short rest against a Kentucky team that presses the tempo.

Arizona Wildcats vs. Wisconsin Badgers (+1.5, 133.5)

Wildcats’ so-so shooting vs. Badgers’ battling bigs

All the attention in this NCAA rematch will be on how Arizona’s frontcourt will handle Wisconsin big Frank Kaminsky, who stomped all over the Wildcats with 28 points in last year’s Elite Eight. Arizona has the talent to tie up Frank “The Tank” and made some good adjustments on Xavier’s “Stain Train” Matt Stainbrook in the second half of Thursday’s win. So, with the heavyweights trading blows in the paint, it leaves the game to be decided on the perimeter where Arizona just hasn’t been that great.

The Wildcats have shot 14 for 41 (34 percent) in their last two games, including just 7 for 22 against the Musketeers’ pesky 1-3-1 zone. Arizona doesn’t actually try many from deep, averaging only 5.2 makes from beyond the arc per game – second lowest of all Sweet 16 programs. North Carolina put in work from distance against the Badgers, hitting eight 3-pointers, as did Oregon in their loss to Wisconsin in the Round of 32. Hell, even Coastal Carolina went 7 of 12 from range in the Round of 64. Does Arizona have the chops from downtown to do the same damage?

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Sunday's six-pack

-- Former NBA sharpshooter Mark Price has been an NBA assistant since 2007, is the new basketball coach at Charlotte, which has jumped between conferences due to starting up a new football program. Price will be interesting to follow.

-- East Tennessee State signed on Steve Forbes as its new coach; he was a bigtime JC coach who was an assistant at Wichita State the last two years.

-- On Opening Day, Pedro Alvarez will become the Pirates' 54th first baseman in their 129-year history.

-- Hawks/Warriors have already clinched top seeds for the NBA playoffs.

-- Brian Wardle jumps from Green Bay to Bradley, which becomes a much better job if Gregg Marshall leaves Wichita State.

-- Ill-Chicago signed on Steve McClain, who was 157-115 at Wyoming; not sure why they fired him, but he's been at Indiana under Tom Crean the last few years.



**********

Armadillo: Sunday's List of 13: Nobody asked me, but.......

13) Kentucky 68, Notre Dame 66-- Tremendous game; young Wildcats had poise down stretch, when they looked to be in deep trouble. Jerian Grant never came out of any of the Irish's four tournament games- he was only 4-14 in this game.

12) Wisconsin 85, Arizona 78-- Badgers were 10-12 on arc in second half, as Sean Miller lost in regional final for fourth time in last eight years. 2-seeds are now 11-4 in last fifteen regional final meetings with a 1-seed.

11) Last 12+ years, underdogs are now 33-17 vs spread in regional finals.

10) Apparently Texas wanted Rick Barnes to fire all his assistant coaches, and he wouldn't, so now Barnes is gone after 17 years in Austin. Some of these colleges haven't a clue; they're going to have a hard time finding someone who will be as successful as Barnes was.

9) The Barnes move screws Alabama, since they're an even worse basketball job than the Texas job-- there are a lot of great high school/JC players in Texas.

8) Just for the record, Barnes' wife went to Tennessee; he'll be signed up by the Vols before very long. He'll also be their fourth coach in the last six seasons.

7) It'll be an interesting week to be the agent for Gregg Marshall and Shaka Smart, but if those guys stay where they are, thats when the real fun will start.

6) Kentucky fans better enjoy this because someday soon, John Calipari is going to go back and try the NBA again, then the Wildcats are up a creek , because he created a monster whose fanbase will never be satisfied with anything other than a national title. If you don't think replacing Calipari is difficult, ask Josh Pastner in Memphis.

5) Arizona gave Yosmany Tomas a lot of cash, but now it turns out he isn't a good third baseman and may be more of a DH-type, which would be OK if Arizona was in the American League, but they aren't. He may have to start the year in AAA.

4) Shouldn't everyone who coaches in professional baseball learn Spanish?

3) Watching replay of a Royals-Diamondbacks exhibition game and they're doing a dugout interview with Mark Grace, who is an assistant hitting coach after he had been the analyst on Arizona's TV broadcasts. Grace was a classic on TV and is missed, but it sounds like he is happy and healthy and thats the main thing.

2) It snowed here in beautfiul upstate New York Saturday, nine days before Opening Day of baseball season, two days after I came back from Las Vegas. No bueno.

1) Why in God's name is Russell Wilson playing baseball? His agent must have a coronary every time the phone rings. He could lose hundreds of millions if he has some kind of an arm injury.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB
Long Sheet

Sunday, March 30

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MICHIGAN ST (26 - 11) vs. LOUISVILLE (27 - 8) - 3/29/2015, 2:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LOUISVILLE is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in March games over the last 3 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 29-17 ATS (+10.3 Units) off a win against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 31-18 ATS (+11.2 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 3 seasons.
MICHIGAN ST is 42-30 ATS (+9.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MICHIGAN ST is 42-30 ATS (+9.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
MICHIGAN ST is 22-12 ATS (+8.8 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
MICHIGAN ST is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 3 seasons.
MICHIGAN ST is 20-9 ATS (+10.1 Units) in road games versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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GONZAGA (35 - 2) vs. DUKE (32 - 4) - 3/29/2015, 5:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DUKE is 22-14 ATS (+6.6 Units) in all games this season.
DUKE is 22-14 ATS (+6.6 Units) in all lined games this season.
DUKE is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in road games after a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons.
DUKE is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games in non-conference games this season.
DUKE is 20-11 ATS (+7.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
DUKE is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.
DUKE is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game this season.
GONZAGA is 56-36 ATS (+16.4 Units) as an underdog since 1997.
GONZAGA is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) when playing with one or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
GONZAGA is 66-45 ATS (+16.5 Units) in road games in all tournament games since 1997.
DUKE is 53-77 ATS (-31.7 Units) in March games since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Sunday, March 30

Izzo is 20-4 in turnaround games in NCAA tournament; his staff is great at getting kids ready to play on short rest. Michigan State won seven of last eight games overall; Spartans are 1-2 vs ACC teams this year, with upset of Virginia last weekend, losing to Notre Dame in OT by a point, Duke by 10. Louisville threw its PG off team in mid-February but has now progressed to this point; Cardinals are trying for third Final Four in last four years. Big 14 teams are 7-8 vs spread this postseason, 3-4 as a favorite. ACC teams are 10-10 vs spread, 5-1 as underdogs. Izzo is 12-9 in tournament games when lower-seed.

Gonzaga is trying for its first Final Four; Bulldogs have experience edge here (#39, Duke is #330 in experience) but Blue Devil program has better history on its side. Duke won 15 of last 16 games; they're 15-0 outside ACC, allowing 54 ppg in first three tourney wins. Gonzaga's only losses this season were by 3 points each, at Arizona in OT, at home to BYU. ACC teams are 10-10 vs spread this postseason, 5-9 as favorite. WCC teams are 2-5 vs spread, all as favorites. Look at regional finals between 1-2 seeds: since 2003, 2-seeds are 11-4 SU against 1-seeds in regional finals- since '09, 1-seeds are 5-9 vs spread in regional finals.




NCAAB

Sunday, March 30

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

2:20 PM
MICHIGAN STATE vs. LOUISVILLE
No trends available
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Louisville's last 15 games
Louisville is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

5:05 PM
GONZAGA vs. DUKE
No trends available
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Duke's last 5 games
Duke is 15-1 SU in its last 16 games

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB

Sunday, March 30


Renewed defensive focus has Duke going under

As the regular season ended nobody was going to call Duke the best defensive team around, but they have stepped up their game starting the ACC Conference Tournament. This renewed defensive game has caused the Blue Devils to go under the total in their past five contests.

Duke has been holding opponents to an average of 57.8 points in their past five, compared to allowing 64.8 points per game in the regular season. The defensive focus has also slowed Duke's offense as they have averaged nearly seven points less per game in those past four as well.



Sunday's NCAAB betting cheat sheet: Elite Eight

Michigan State Spartans vs. Louisville Cardinals (+2.5, 128.5)

While other matchups in the Elite Eight feature some of the nation's best players, such as Duke's Jahlil Okafor, Wisconsin's Frank Kaminsky and Kentucky's litany of future NBA draft picks, the East Regional final features a different kind of star-studded affair. Michigan State's Tom Izzo and Louisville's Rick Pitino are two of the best coaches in the country and after working their March magic yet again, their teams will square off in Syracuse, N.Y. on Sunday for a berth in the Final Four. The fourth-seeded Cardinals and seventh-seeded Spartans are the two lowest-seeded teams remaining in the NCAA Tournament.

After his team knocked off the region's No. 2 and 3 seeds in the last two rounds, Izzo is one win away from his seventh trip to the Final Four - all since 1999. "He is the best at what he does," Spartans guard Lourawls Nairn Jr. told reporters. "We're real confident in whatever he tells us to do. As long as we focus on what he tells us to do, we'll be fine." Regarding Pitino, who has been to seven Final Fours - one with Providence, three with Kentucky and three with Louisville, Cardinals forward Montrezl Harrell told reporters: "Everybody has bought into the mentality that Coach wanted and everybody wants the same goal."

TV: 2:20 p.m. ET, CBS

LINE HISTORY: Most online books opened Louisville +2, but quickly moved the line to +2.5. The total opened at 128.5 and has yet to shift.

INJURY REPORT: N/A

ABOUT MICHIGAN STATE (26-11 SU, 21-16 ATS, 19-15-2 O/U): Travis Trice has increased his scoring in all three games of the tournament, going from 15 points in the opener to 23 in an upset of second-seeded Virginia and 24 against Oklahoma, as the senior guard is shooting 10-of-22 from 3-point range in the Big Dance. The Spartans have reached the Elite Eight despite Denzel Valentine shooting 7-of-23 over the last two games and a disappointing team-wide 58.8 free-throw percentage in the tournament. "One more victory would be one of the more sweeter moments of my career," acknowledged Izzo, who is 12-9 in the NCAA Tournament when his team has the lower seed.

ABOUT LOUISVILLE (27-8 SU, 13-19-2 ATS, 13-17-1 O/U): The Cardinals dismissed Chris Jones - the team's third-leading scorer - from the team in late February but still are one win from their third Final Four trip in the last four seasons. The catalysts for Pitino's latest magical run have been Terry Rozier, who had 17 points and a career-high 14 rebounds in the Sweet 16, and Harrell, whose 24 points against the Sooners were his most since Feb. 11. "I can't say enough about him because he's the toughest guy I've ever coached and he never lets me down," Pitino said of Harrell, who is 12-of-14 from the foul line in the tournament after shooting 58.3 percent over the first 32 games.

TRENDS:

*Spartans are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games.
*Cardinals are 26-10 ATS in their last 36 neutral site games.
*Over is 7-3 in Spartans last 10 overall.
*Under is 4-0-1 in Cardinals last 5 non-conference games.

CONSENSUS: 60.06 percent of users are backing Michigan State -2.5 with 56.7 percent on the under.



Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. Duke Blue Devils (-2.5, 145)

Gonzaga is one win away from its first trip to the Final Four, but the last remaining obstacle is a significant one. The Bulldogs have lost only twice all season - by a total of six points - but now they must get past Duke when the teams meet Sunday in Houston in the South Regional final. Second-seeded Gonzaga is in its first Elite Eight since 1999, while top-seeded Duke is one win from its 16th appearance in the Final Four and its first since 2010.

The Blue Devils won the national championship that year with a veteran lineup, but the current group of Duke stars is a trio of freshmen complemented by a sturdy senior in the backcourt. Justise Winslow starred in Duke's Sweet 16 victory against Utah, while fellow freshman Jahlil Okafor matched a season low with six points and hopes to bounce back against Gonzaga with NBA scouts watching him closely. The Bulldogs rode their two big men, Przemek Karnowski and Domantas Sabonis, to a regional semifinal win against UCLA but likely need more production from their star players on Sunday.

TV: 5:05 p.m. ET, CBS

LINE HISTORY: Duke opened at either -2 or -2.5 initially, but was -2.5 at most books rather quickly. The total opened at 146.5 before dropping to 144.5, then rebounding to 145.

INJURY REPORT: N/A

ABOUT GONZAGA (35-2 SU, 18-14-2 ATS, 19-13 O/U): Karnowski and Sabonis are the third- and fifth-leading scorers for the Bulldogs, but they combined for 30 points and 17 rebounds while their teammates struggled to 13-of-47 shooting against UCLA. Among the players who need to step up Sunday are Kyle Wiltjer, who averages a team-high 16.8 points but totaled eight on 4-of-12 shooting Friday, and Kevin Pangos (11.8 points), who went 1-of-7 from 3-point range en route to 10 points against the Bruins. "The one accomplishment that we haven't done is reach the Final Four and we finally have an opportunity to do that," said Bulldogs coach Mark Few, whose team went 10-of-16 from 3-point range in the round of 32 before going 3-of-19 in the Sweet 16.

ABOUT DUKE (32-4 SU, 21-14-1 ATS, 18-16 O/U): A native of Houston, Winslow shot 8-of-14 from the field and 3-of-4 from the arc en route to 21 points and 10 rebounds against Utah to finish with his third double-double in the last four games. "Justise played like a man all night. He did everything we needed," said senior guard Quinn Cook, who had 11 points to join Winslow and freshman Tyus Jones (15) in double figures. The Utes employed constant double-teams on Okafor, who attempted only six shots and only took one free throw while committing four turnovers in perhaps the worst game of his Blue Devils career.

TRENDS:

*Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
*Blue Devils are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
*Over is 5-1 in Bulldogs last 6 non-conference games.
*Under is 5-0 in Blue Devils last 5 overall.

CONSENSUS: 52.14 percent of users are on Duke -2.5 with 60.5 percent on the over.

The Blue Devils meet Gonzaga in Elite Eight action with a current total of 144.5.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB
Dunkel

Sunday, March 30


Michigan State vs Louisville

Game 719-720
March 29, 2015 @ 2:20 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Michigan State
69.845
Louisville
65.154
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Michigan State
by 4 1/2
133
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Michigan State
by 2 1/2
128
Dunkel Pick:
Michigan State
(-2 1/2); Over

Gonzaga vs Duke

Game 721-722
March 29, 2015 @ 5:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Gonzaga
75.710
Duke
74.091
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Gonzaga
by 1 1/2
150
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Duke
by 2 1/2
144 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Gonzaga
(+2 1/2); Over