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**StarDust Bum** · 03-16-2015, 01:54 PM

NCAA Tournament Opening Betting Line Report: Oddsmakers open Oregon-Oklahoma State at pick 'em

OK, the NCAA Tournament bracket is out, and there’s much gnashing of teeth and wringing of hands about who got seeded where, and who got left out. But let’s get to what’s really important here:

What’s the spread?

The tourney’s round-of-64 on Thursday and Friday – 16 games per day of pure basketball bliss – will have its share of blowouts, nailbiters and shockers. Covers got a trio of oddsmakers to weigh in on the games they found most challenging to set the line on: Jason Simbal, vice president of risk management for CG Technology; John Lester, senior lines manager for bookmaker.eu; and Mike Jerome, oddsmaker for topbet.eu.

WEST REGION

No. 4 North Carolina (-9) vs. No. 13 Harvard

“These two teams are total polar opposites,” said Simbal, whose operation runs several Las Vegas sportsbooks, including the M, the Palms, Cosmopolitan and
the Venetian. “Harvard wants to score 45 points a game and win, and Carolina wants to score 85 points a game and win.

“The Ivy League does a good job of dictating pace in NCAA Tournament games. We tossed around 7 points (to) 10 points. We had more conversation about
this game than any other game.”

No. 5 Arkansas (-7) vs. No. 12 Wofford

It looks like a mismatch, but Simbal warns against leaping too quickly.

“We have Wofford in the top 30 in all of our defensive metrics, which historically bodes quite well for tournament teams,” he said, noting that puts the Terriers in the top-10 percentile among the 300-plus NCAA Division I teams. “I wouldn’t be surprised if that number creeps toward Wofford as the week goes on.”

No. 8 Oregon vs. No. 9 Oklahoma State, pick ‘em

“The big question is what kind of defense will show up for Okie State?” Lester said. “Because we know Joseph Young and the Ducks can put up points in bunches. The Cowboys are quite bipolar, and this could get ugly if Mr. Hyde shows up.”

Jerome chimed in on this game, too.

“If there is a game that looks like a coin toss, it’s this one,” he said. “And it makes sense, as the line is a pick 'em.”

No. 7 Virginia Commonwealth vs. No. 10 Ohio State (-2.5)

“VCU is a bit overrated in our eyes, but people recognize the Rams as a giant-killer come tourney time,” Lester said. “This is a good matchup, but the Buckeyes’ D'Angelo Russell should have his way here, and the absence of VCU’s Briante Weber (torn ACL last month) cannot be underestimated.”
Jerome isn’t counting out the Rams.

“Shaka Smart has his team playing great basketball when it matters,” he said. “The Buckeyes, on the other hand, have been a bit inconsistent, yet are a slight
2.5-point favorite.

SOUTH REGION

No. 4 Georgetown (-8) vs. No. 13 Eastern Washington

This game presents about as long a road trip as possible for the Hoyas, and about as short a trip as possible for the Eagles.

“It’s in Seattle. That’s always tricky, because it’s basically a home game for Eastern Washington,” Simbal said, noting he and his oddsmaking crew prefer the straight math of numbers, and that these quasi-home games skew that formula. “There was a similar situation two years ago when UNLV played California in San Jose. Do you treat that as a home game or not? And even if you don’t treat it as a home game, the public will treat it as a home game.”

Lester had some thoughts on this game, as well.

“It feels like a very similar matchup that Georgetown had a few years ago against Ohio,” he said. “The Eagles run and chuck up a lot of 3-pointers. The squares have no clue about Eastern Washington, but the sharps certainly know who Tyler Harvey is, so we had to be careful with the line.”

No. 5 Utah (-6) vs. No. 12 Stephen F. Austin

This could be one of those seemingly annual 12-5 upsets.

“Stephen F. Austin won a game in the NCAA Tournament last year, and they’re returning everyone,” Simbal said. “The Lumberjacks were huge favorites in all their (Southland) Conference games, and covered most of them. Utah is a team that struggled late and lost a bunch of games.”

No. 8 San Diego State (-2.5) vs. No. 9 St. John’s

“The Chris Obekpa suspension complicates things a bit for St. John's. The Red Storm will have to adjust in a big way,” Lester said. “You can't ever really trust San Diego State in this tournament, but the Aztecs will have a big advantage on the boards.”

The game has no shortage of name recognition on the bench, too.

“It’s another game with some big-name coaches: San Diego State’s Steve Fisher, St. John’s Steve Lavin, and Gene Keady, an assistant with the Red Storm,” Jerome said. “Good defense vs. good offense usually equals a win by the defensive-minded team.”

No. 11 UCLA vs No. 6 Southern Methodist (-3)

“SMU’s Larry Brown faces the team he used to coach back in the 1970s,” Jerome said. “Many ‘experts’ didn’t like how UCLA got a favorable seed. SMU will likely be one of the more popular bets on Thursday. SMU opened at -2 and moved to -3 less than an hour later.”

MIDWEST REGION

No. 6 Butler vs. No. 11 Texas, pick ‘em

Many TV analysts were growling about Texas even getting into the tournament. For oddsmakers, it created some difficulty, too.

“We knew the trickiest team was going to be Texas,” Simbal said. “By all the statistics and the math, the Longhorns are a top-20 team. But they can’t win a close game if their life depended on it. Now, they’re playing Butler, which is a similar team. They both like to grind it out.”

The implication: Grind-it-out games are close games, which don’t typically suit Texas.

No. 4 Maryland (-4) vs. No. 13 Valparaiso

Simbal said the Terrapins are the antithesis of Texas, presenting an altogether different challenge.

“The math and the statistics don’t match up, but they win every close game. They are super good in close games,” he said, noting the Terps went 9-1 in games decided by 5 points or less. “We have them at -4 as a No. 4 seed against a 13 seed. That shows how confident – or unconfident – we are in them.”

No. 7 Wichita State (-5) vs. No. 10 Indiana

“Wichita State deserved better than a No. 7 seed, and this is a tough matchup,” Lester said. “Indy will want to run, run, run, while the Shockers will try to slow everything down. We'll probably be split on this game, but the Hoosiers could easily ‘upset’ the Shockers.”

Jerome agreed with Lester.

“It seems like the Shockers got slighted a bit, while Indiana seemed to get seeded a lot higher than many thought,” Jerome said.

No. 8 Cincinnati vs. No. 9 Purdue (-1)

“This is a tough draw for Purdue, because its bigs should be offset by a Cincy squad that can also bang down low,” Lester said. “It should be a very grind-it-out type of game, and it could come down to which team can hit some shots from outside.”

No. 5 West Virginia (-4) vs. Buffalo

“Coach Bobby Hurley has got the Bulls playing bullish hoops,” Jerome said. “West Virginia is only laying 4 because Juwan Staten (knee) is questionable.”

EAST REGION

No. 5 Northern Iowa (-7.5) vs. No. 12 Wyoming

The Cowboys present a dilemma because they wouldn’t be in the field if they hadn’t won the Mountain West Conference tournament, and they wouldn’t have won the tournament if Larry Nance Jr. hadn’t returned late last month after missing a handful of games with mononucleosis.

“Nance was the Player of the Year in the Mountain West, so Wyoming will have the best player on the court,” Simbal said. “But it’s very hard to handicap because of (the time Nance missed). Who knows how good they would’ve been if he had been there all year?”

Lester keyed in on this game, as well.

“I think Wyoming is a very good squad with two high-caliber players in Larry Nance Jr. and Josh Adams. The Cowboys play defense, grind, and they are healthy,” he said. “Like Wichita State, Northern Iowa got a bad draw and may be underseeded. This could very well be a 5/12 upset.”

Jerome also weighed in on the mid-major dual.

“Two schools lock horns from two of the best mid-major conferences -- the Missouri Valley and the Mountain West,” he said. “Northern Iowa has the best player on the floor in Seth Tuttle, but he could be neutralized by Nance.”

No. 4 Louisville (-9) vs. No. 13 UC Irvine

“Rick Pitino better put together a good game plan, because this is a ripe spot for an upset,” Lester said. “Louisville is overseeded, but the betting public has no clue about UC Irvine, so this is a tough line to set.”

No. 8 North Carolina State (-1) vs. No. 9 Louisiana State

“LSU really should be ashamed of the way it lost to Auburn in its last game,” Jerome said. “There’s big injury news here, with N.C. State's Anthony Barber (head). He is listed as probable to play.”

**StarDust Bum** · 03-16-2015, 01:55 PM

NCAA East: Villanova, Virginia yin-yang of region

EAST REGION

Top seeds: 1) Villanova, 2) Virginia, 3) Oklahoma, 4) Louisville

How the East is won: What makes the East region so great is that its best teams are really more than the sum of their parts.

Villanova might have its best team in program history, even if the Wildcats can't replicate the 1985 squad that brought a National Title back to suburban Philadelphia. Jay Wright's top six scorers all average between 9.2 and 14.0 ppg, a spectacular balance that makes them incredibly difficult to guard, and he's got them playing tough defense even late in blowout games -- the mark of a team that is incredibly well-coached.

As good as the Wildcats are on the offensive end, No. 2 seed Virginia is equally as good defensively. The Cavaliers held an astounding 15 opponents to fewer than 50 points this year, including doing so against fellow NCAA Tournament teams Louisville, NC State and Harvard, who only managed 27 points in a loss back in December. Tony Bennett has a long, athletic team that plays hard and plays smart, a winning formula no matter what time of the season it is.

Very likely, the path to the Final Four will run through one of the above two teams, who both look like they're on a mission to make it to Indianapolis. Both Louisville and Oklahoma have looked shaky over the last few weeks, and it's not often in late March that teams suddenly flip a switch and become elite.

Upset Watch: There's been a trend of late of No. 15-seeds beating No. 2-seeds, especially if that No. 2-seed happens to be Duke -- which lost to Lehigh in 2012 and Mercer last year. Duke's not in the East regional, but another ACC school has to be very careful, with Virginia drawing Ohio Valley Conference champs Belmont in the first round. The Bruins are one of the top shooting teams in the country, shooting 47.6 percent from the floor -- good enough for 25th in the country. If they can get going, the Cavaliers could be in trouble.

Another team that has to be very careful early on is fifth-seeded Northern Iowa, which gets Mountain West champion Wyoming in the 5-12 matchup. Historically, the 12-5 upset happens about 40 percent of the time, and this could certainly be one of those matchups. UNI is no joke, going 30-3 out of the a very tough Missouri Valley Conference, but Wyoming took down two other NCAA Tournament teams in Boise State and San Diego State to win the MWC tournament this weekend.

Get to Know: Villanova junior point guard Ryan Arcidiacono isn't the flashiest player in the bracket, but the Big East co-MVP just gets the job done. Arcidiacono seems to come up with big plays at the biggest of times, like his feed to Darrun Hilliard to beat Butler on the road or his forced turnover against Syracuse to help 'Nova complete a wild comeback against the Orange.

The Missouri Valley Conference Player of the Year, Northern Iowa's Seth Tuttle of is a 6-foot-8 senior forward who averaged 15.3 ppg and 6.8 rpg, leading UNI to a spectacular 30-3 record and MWC tournament championship. The Iowa native is a versatile offensive player, with the ability to step out and knock down a 3-pointer (42.9 percent) when he's open.

What a year it's been for Albany senior guard Peter Hooley, who went through a lot over the last few months. The Australia native missed eight games in the middle of the season to be with his mother, who passed away from cancer in late January. He returned to lead the Great Danes to a miracle comeback in the America East championship game, canning the game-winning 3-pointer with less than five seconds to play in a 51-50 victory.

Virginia suffered a big blow in the middle of the season when 6-foot-6 junior wing Justin Anderson suffered a broken finger on his left hand in a Feb. 7 win over Louisville, though they would shake it off to win seven in a row without him. After two scoreless games in the ACC tournament, Anderson (12.3 ppg, 4.1 rpg) needs to get back somewhere to his usual self to help UVa to a deep tournament run.

One to see: If you're going to watch any game from the first round, check out Villanova-Lafayette. Sure, the 1-16 matchup hasn't traditionally been the most competitive in the tournament's history -- no 16-seed has ever pulled the upset -- but there's some more recent data to look at with this particular matchup.

Last year, the Leopards came down to Villanova with a very similar roster, and actually were in a tie game with eight minutes remaining before the Wildcats pulled away for a 75-59 win. Lafayette coach Fran O'Hanlon is a Villanova alum, and you can bet his players are going to be fired up about giving their head coach a chance to make history in the NCAA Tournament against his alma matter.

Rock, Chalk: This is certainly a tough region, with Villanova and Virginia both putting together stellar overall seasons against very difficult schedules. 'Nova looks like they've got the easier path to the Elite 8, given that Louisville has gone 5-5 over its last 10 games heading into March Madness, but Oklahoma isn't quite used to seeing defenses like Virginia's in the Big 12.

If anybody's going to stop Villanova's multi-faceted attack, it would seem likely to be Virginia, who's got the athletes to defend the Wildcats all over the court. In a time of year that's become known for its upsets and Cinderella stories, this is one region where the chalk holding could provide for the most entertaining games.

Numbers Inc.:

32 -- Number of wins for Villanova, a program record and tied for the most in Big 5 history.

3 -- Consecutive NCAA Tournament appearances for Albany under head coach Will Brown.

90 -- Height, in inches, of UC Irvine center Mamadou N'Diaye, a 7-foot-6 sophomore who is the tallest player currently in NCAA Division I.

0 -- The number, in miles, that Dayton will have to travel to play its First Four game against Boise State; the game, as with all First Four games since 2011 will be played at Dayton Arena.

50.7 -- Points allowed per game by the Virginia defense, which was the best in the country this season. Northern Iowa was fourth at 54.3.

See you in Indy: Villanova. The best team Jay Wright's had in his 14 years at the school gets it done, making it to the Final Four for the first time since 2009.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-16-2015, 01:55 PM

NCAA South: Duke's demons open up region

SOUTH REGION

Top seeds: 1) Duke, 2) Gonzaga, 3) Iowa State, 4) Georgetown

How the South is won: Given Duke's recent one-and-done flameouts the last two years, one can make a case this is the most wide-open region. Arguably the best Gonzaga team in Mark Few's tenure and a resilient Iowa State side can be considered the Blue Devils' equals at this stage, although Georgetown as a No. 4 seed seems somewhat surprising.

One thing in Duke's favor is that none of the top four seeds have really made memorable postseason runs in recent years. Gonzaga went into the tournament as a No. 1 seed two years ago and was ousted by Wichita State in the third round, a loss which looked a bit better when the Shockers reached the Final Four. Iowa State was a Sweet 16 team last year.

While Utah slumped near season's end, the Utes appear to have gotten a reasonable draw as a No. 5 seed. Guard Delon Wright is the type of versatile player who can will a team to a win any time out, and if 7-0 freshman Jakob Poeltl can avoid foul trouble, Utah will have the inside-outside combo to give anyone trouble.

UCLA's inclusion in the field is somewhat surprising, given that it had just two wins in nine tries against ranked teams this year. But the Bruins looked like an NCAA team in Friday night's Pac-12 semifinal loss to Arizona.

Upset Watch: Look out for Eastern Washington against Georgetown in the 4-13 game. Eastern is the nation's second-ranked team offensively, and as Tom Crean's Indiana team found out in non-conference play, it is capable of beating a big boy.

The 10-12 seeds are also capable of blowing up brackets. Stephen F. Austin, which plays Utah in a 12-5 game, bumped off VCU last march in a second round contest.

Get to Know: A classic one-and-done freshman, Duke's Jahlil Okakor will be a lottery pick in June. Okafor may be a below-average defender, but he can score and rebound in concert like few in the college game. His post presence makes the Blue Devils a tough cover in the half court.

It only seems like Gonzaga's Kevin Pangos has been there for 10 years. The Zags' unquestioned floor leader may be the program's best lead guard since John Stockton.

Utah's hoops renaissance owes much to 6-foot-5 senior Delon Wright, the program's first two-time first team all-conference pick in 15 years. Wright routinely stuffs the stat sheet in three categories and provides leadership.

One to see: It's hard to imagine a matchup of more contrasting styles than San Diego State and St. John's in the second. West vs. East, old school coach (Steve Fisher) against the still-hip Steve Lavin, great defensive team against a team full of good athletes. This should go down to a last shot.

Rock, Chalk: With depth at every position, Gonzaga has never been better equipped for a Final Four run than it is this March. In a potential regional final with Duke, it has plenty of bigs to battle Okafor and the versatility to play at any pace.

Numbers Inc.:

1 -- The first-ever NCAA berth for North Florida.

3 -- The number of starters UCLA saw leave for the NBA last spring with eligibility still remaining.

8 -- The number of scholarship players Duke had at one point following a spate of injuries and the dismissal of senior guard Rasheed Sulaimon.

10 -- Davidson's seed this year. When Stephen Curry led it to an Elite Eight berth in 2008, it was as a No. 10 seed.

15 -- The number of wins by 20 or more points this season for Utah, the most in Division I.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-16-2015, 01:56 PM

NCAA Midwest: Can undefeated Kentucky be stopped?

MIDWEST REGION

TOP SEEDS: 1) Kentucky, 2) Kansas, 3) Notre Dame, 4) Maryland

How the Midwest is won: The one certainty on Selection Sunday was Kentucky being tabbed the tournament's overall top seed.

That never was in jeopardy, like most of the Wildcats' games this season.

Kentucky capped its captivating campaign by romping through the SEC tournament en route to a 34-0 overall record, becoming just the fourth team to enter the Division I men's tournament undefeated since Indiana's run to perfection in 1975-76. The last three, Indiana State (1979), UNLV (1991) and Wichita State (2014).

Those Hoosiers won it all. Can Kentucky?

More than a couple teams could stand in their way.

Second-seeded Kansas, ACC tournament champion and No. 3 seed Notre Dame and fourth-seeded Maryland are obviously the top threats to topple Kentucky.

The Fighting Irish have perhaps the most confidence of anybody, though, having knocked off Duke and North Carolina on consecutive days to claim the ACC tourney title.

Upset Watch: Bobby Hurley hasn't been to the Big Dance in more than two decades, but he knows what it takes to win when he is there.

Hurley, named the tournament's MVP in 1992 when he helped Duke win the national title, is heading back as coach of Buffalo after winning 23 games and the MAC tournament title. It's Buffalo's first-ever berth in the NCAA tournament, where the 12th-seeded Bulls will try and shock No. 5 West Virginia.

Twelve seeds are 8-4 against No. 5s the past three years.

The 11th-seeded Texas Longhorns were in the perilous position of missing the tournament altogether after compiling a 20-13 record and finishing sixth in the Big 12, but snuck in thanks to playing the 16th toughest schedule in the country. They could get past No. 6 Butler with a strong showing from point guard Isaiah Taylor, who averaged 13 points and 4.6 assists per game.

Get to Know: Kentucky forward Willie Cauley-Stein averaged only 9.2 points and 6.3 rebounds per game, but the 7-foot junior affected more than his fair share of games with his defensive prowess.

That's hardly the only Wildcat to watch.

Kentucky guards Aaron Harrison and Devin Booker led the team in scoring at 11.3 and 10.7 points per game, respectively, while forward Karl-Anthony Towns averaged 9.8 points and 6.8 rebounds, teaming with Cauley-Stein to form not only one of the greatest hyphenated tandems in recent memory, but one of the most feared low-post duos in the country.

Notre Dame guard Jerian Grant averaged 16.8 points and 6.6 assists per game, but saved his best for last. Grant scored 24 points and had 10 assists against North Carolina, igniting a 26-3 second-half surge that led the Fighting Irish to the ACC tournament title.

One to see: If seventh-seeded Wichita State can get past Indiana, an intriguing matchup against Kansas looms. Despite an early exit from the MVC tournament, the Shockers boast a core of players who nearly finished off an undefeated season last year. Fred Van Vleet, Ron Baker and Tekele Cotton return to the tournament one season after watching their title hopes end in the third round in a gut-wrenching loss to Kentucky.

Luck of the Irish: Notre Dame put together one of the program's best seasons, finishing with the most regular-season wins (26) in school history. The encore was even better, knocking off both Duke and North Carolina in consecutive days to claim the ACC tourney title. The Fighting Irish have won eight of their last nine games, thanks to sharpshooting from beyond the arc -- ranking 18th in the country in 3-point percentage (39.2) -- and have perhaps the best shot at beating top-seeded Kentucky.

Numbers, Inc.:

1 -- Kansas' strength of schedule

2 -- Coaches Butler has had this season after Brandon Miller took a leave of absence and never returned

78.8 -- Notre Dame's points per game, the most of any team in the region

11 -- National titles won by the region's top two seeds, Kentucky and Kansas

8 -- Championships won by Kentucky

6 -- Games Kentucky needs to win it all

38 -- Years since a team finished a perfect season with a national title

See you in Indy: Kentucky. Hard to argue with 34-0.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-16-2015, 01:57 PM

NCAA West: Deja vu for Wisconsin, Arizona?

WEST REGION

Top seeds: 1) Wisconsin, 2) Arizona, 3) Baylor, 4) North Carolina

How the West is won: If the seeds hold, it will be a West regional final rematch from last season, when Wisconsin beat Arizona 64-63 in an overtime classic, as it was a one-possession game for the final 17 minutes, 9 seconds.

This is the first top seed in Wisconsin history. Arizona hasn't been to the Final Four since 2001, losing in a regional final four times since then.

The West's four seeds collectively look to be the most dangerous in the field. Baylor was tested by Big 12 fire this season, and the Bears have length, athleticism, a tricky zone defense and superb offensive rebounding. North Carolina is sometimes enigmatic, but the Tar Heels have size and do-it-all point guard Marcus Paige, who can sprinkle magic all over the bracket.

Upset Watch: The NCAA Tournament often turns into a guard's game, and No. 10 Ohio State has one of the best around in freshman sensation D'Angelo Russell, who averages 19.3 points, 5.6 rebounds and 5.1 assists while dazzling with a high basketball IQ. The Buckeyes open against No. 7 VCU.

No. 13 Harvard, which draws North Carolina in its first game, is making its fourth consecutive appearance in the Big Dance. The experienced Crimson, led by Ivy League Player of the Year Justin Sears, knows all about upsets, having won one game in each of the last two tournaments.

Get to Know: Perhaps the leading candidate for national player of the year, Wisconsin center Frank Kaminsky is matchup nightmare. He's a 7-footer with deft feet and touch around the rim while hitting 39 percent of his 3-point shots.

Arizona has a balanced offensive attack, but point guard T.J. McConnell fuels the engine with a savvy pass-first approach. He's a pit-bull of a point guard who developed a deadly mid-range game during the Pac-12 season.

BYU guards Kyle Collinsworth and G Tyler Haws are two of the best players in program history, and their scoring power (a combined 35.9 points per game) will be a threat to watch ... if the Cougars can get past Ole Miss in a first-round game that feeds to the No. 11 seed.

Oklahoma State G Le'Bryan Nash and Oregon guard Joseph Young provide a terrific matchup of elite senior scorers in an 8-9 game, with Nash having 20 career 20-point efforts.

One to see: Fifth-seeded Arkansas went 10-3 down the stretch, with two of the losses coming to unbeaten Kentucky. The Razorbacks, led by SEC Player of the Year Bobby Portis (17.5 points, 8.6 rebounds per game), are in line for another blue-blood matchup in the second round against North Carolina. If you thought college basketball was an unwatchable slog this season, tune in for this one to see two teams that want to run.

Rock, Chalk: Wisconsin slipped by Arizona last season, when the Wildcats bemoaned the fact they did not have anyone to match up with the versatile Kaminsky. The answer this season could be athletic 6-foot-9 Brandon Ashley, who missed the meeting last March because of a midseason foot injury. Ashley, a junior, is playing the best basketball of his career, earning Most Outstanding Player honors at the Pac-12 tournament.

Numbers Inc:

3 -- Losses in a regional final, in three tries, for Arizona coach Sean Miller, considered by some to be the best active coach to not get to the Final Four. One of those regional final losses came at Xavier.

6 -- Triple-double this season for BYU G Kyle Collinsworth, tying an NCAA career record.

19.8 -- Points per game for Georgia State G R.J. Hunter, a potential first-round pick for the 14th-seeded Panthers.

25 -- Points for Wisconsin F Nigel Hayes in the Big Ten title game. He's the athletic X-factor for the Badgers.

41.8 -- Offensive rebounding percentage for Baylor, which grabs its own misses better than all but one team in the country.

77.8, 77.0 -- Free-throw percentages for Ole Miss and BYU, which rank third and fifth nationally, respectively. They meet in a first-round game.

See you in Indy: Arizona. The Wildcats will grind through the bracket with defense, rebounding and the leadership of T.J. McConnell.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-16-2015, 01:59 PM

Bracket Analysis

March 15, 2015

Kentucky is the No. 1 overall seed and even-money favorite in the 2015 NCAA Tournament. The Westgate SuperBook has Wisconsin and Duke with the next-shortest odds at 6/1. The Badgers and Blue Devils are followed by Villanova (8/1), Arizona (15/1), Virginia (15/1), Gonzaga (18/1) and North Carolina (25/1).

UK enters the Tournament with a 34-0 record after winning the SEC Tournament with Sunday's lopsided win over Arkansas. The Wildcats are trying to become the first team to go undefeated since the 1976 Indiana Hoosiers coached by Bobby Knight.

John Calipari's team will face the winner of Manhattan-Hampton in Louisville. After presumably advancing to the Round of 32, the Wildcats will face the winner of Cincinnati-Purdue. The most likely Sweet 16 opponents in Cleveland would pit UK against West Va. or Maryland.

The bottom of the Midwest Region has teams like Kansas, Notre Dame, Butler and Wichita St. as potential Elite Eight foes for the 'Cats. I would think the Irish have the best shot at preventing Kentucky from returning to the Final Four. I say that because Mike Brey's team has a great point guard and multiple players that can get hot from 3-point land.

Unlike many other pundits, I don't think of Kentucky as invincible whatsoever. With that said, for any teams outside of Virginia, Wisconsin, Villanova, Duke and Arizona to knock off UK, it will have to produce a special performance.

But that's what March is all about.

KU and Wichita St. might meet in the Round of 32. This would be an intriguing matchup because the Shockers go to great lengths to talk about how the Jayhawks refuse to play them in the regular season. The Shockers face Indiana in the opening round.

The other No. 1 seeds went to Villanova, Duke and Wisconsin. Gonzaga, Virginia, Arizona and Kansas are the No. 2 seeds.

Villanova is the top seed in the East Region and looks to be the No. 1 seed most vulnerable of going out in the first weekend. The Wildcats will have to play the winner of LSU-North Carolina St., both of whom are capable of making deep runs.

Virginia is the East's No. 2 seed and will meet Belmont in Charlotte. The winner of the Cavs and Bruins gets Michigan St. or Georgia. If the Spartans and UVA advance, they'll square off in the second round in a rematch of a hotly-contested Sweet 16 game won by the Spartans at MSG in NYC last year.

The Sweet 16 in the East Region will take place at the Carrier Dome in Syracuse. If form holds, we could see Virginia against Oklahoma in a 2/3 matchup. Villanova could be looking at No. Iowa or Louisville as an opponent in the East Region semifinals. The Panthers will face Wyoming in the first round in a game that will almost certainly have the lowest total on the board.

In the South Region, top-seeded Duke will meet the winner of North Florida-Robert Morris. The Blue Devils will face the winner of San Diego St.-St. John's in Charlotte.

I think this region has the potential for upsets galore. Georgetown, the No. 4 seed, could be in trouble against Eastern Washington, the Big Sky champs who won at Indiana and have the nation's leading scorer (Tyler Harvey, 22.9 PPG).

I think 10th-seeded Davidson, which will face Iowa, has the potential to get to the Sweet 16. Gonzaga could go down to the Hawkeyes or the Wildcats in the Round of 32. With the exception of Duke, I think the winner of a 3/6 second-round game between SMU and Iowa St. has the best chance to get to Indianapolis from out of the South.

From the West Region, I feel like Wisconsin and North Carolina will coast into a Sweet 16 showdown in Los Angeles at Staples Center. I don't see Arkansas causing any problems for the Tar Heels in a potential Round of 32 matchup in Jacksonville.

One of the better first-round games is Ohio St. against VCU in Portland. The winner of this 7/10 matchup will likely face Arizona. With that said, the Wildcats draw a tough No. 15 seed in Texas Southern. The Tigers are coached by Mike Davis, who led Indiana to the finals in 2002. They won outright at Michigan St. and at Kansas St. and played a brutal non-conference slate that also included trips to Gonzaga, Florida, Baylor, SMU, Indiana, Eastern Washington, Auburn and Tennessee.

I think form will hold in the West and we'll get UNC-Wisconsin and Baylor-Arizona in the semifinals in L.A. We'll get a rematch of last year's Elite Eight game between the Badgers and the Wildcats, who lost a nail-biter to Bo Ryan's team.

The last bid went to Dayton according to the committee's official 1-68 list. The Flyers shouldn't have to play in a First Four game, but at least they get to play at home against Boise St.

BSU head coach Leon Rice should be livid to have to play a true road game. I feel like Indiana and UCLA should be playing in Dayton rather than the Flyers and the Broncos. The other game in Dayton between bubble teams will pit Ole Miss against BYU.

The winner between Boise St. and Dayton will face sixth-seeded Providence in Columbus. The Ole Miss-BYU survivor will take on Xavier in Jacksonville.

**B.E's Bonus Nuggets**

--In his Selection Show interview on CBS, the committee's chairman revealed that Temple was the first team out of the field. Wyoming stole its bid by beating San Diego St. in the MWC Tournament finals.

--St. John's won't have starting center Chris Obekpa for the NCAA Tournament unless it gets to the Final Four. The school announced Sunday that Obekpa has been suspended for two weeks due to a violation of team rules. Obekpa is fifth in the nation in blocked shots, averaging 3.2 per game. He averages 7.0 points and 5.8 rebounds per game for the Red Storm, who will face San Diego St. in Charlotte in the first round.

-- After both players missed several games with injuries, West Va. is expecting to get Gary Browne and star guard Juwan Staten back this week.

-- Wisconsin senior point guard Traevon Jackson will return to practice Monday. Jackson hasn't played since breaking his foot in a Jan. 11 loss at Rutgers. He averages 9.4 points and 2.9 assists per game.

-- Georgia's Kenny Gaines is dealing with a sprained foot that kept him out of Saturday's SEC Tournament semifinals loss to Arkansas. Gaines (11.6 PPG) is expected to play in UGA's first-round matchup against Michigan St. This is the Bulldogs' second NCAA Tournament appearance during Mark Fox's tenure.

-- BYU is dealing with several injuries going into Tuesday's First-Four matchup against Ole Miss. Skyler Halford, who averages 8.7 points and 2.3 assists per game, suffered a lower-leg nerve contusion in a loss to Gonzaga in the WCC Tournament finals. Halford has scored in double figures in 12 of the Cougars' last 15 games. According to a tweet Sunday night from BYU beat writer Jay Drew, Halford told the Salt Lake Tribune, "I am good to go. Practiced the last couple of days, felt great." Anson Winder is listed as 'questionable' after sustaining a knee injury on March 7 that forced him to miss the team's last two games. Winder is BYU's third-leading scorer with a 13.1 PPG average.

-- Valpo has lost six straight NCAA Tournament games by double-digit margins since its 1998 run to the Sweet 16. However, we'll note that the '98 team led by Bryce Drew was a No. 13 seed like the Crusaders are this year. They'll take on fourth-seeded Maryland.

-- Double-digit seeds capable of making deep runs: Buffalo, Davidson, Boise St., Dayton, Georgia and Eastern Washington.

-- Buffalo is coached by Duke legendary point guard Bobby Hurley. The Bulls played at Kentucky and at Wisconsin during the regular season. They led the 'Cats by five at intermission at Rupp Arena and had a one-point advantage over the Badgers at halftime in Madison.

--Players capable of carrying their teams to multiple upset victories: Derrick Marks (Boise St.), Larry Nance Jr. (Wyoming), Tyler Harvey (Eastern Washington), Jack Gibbs (Davidson), R.J. Hunter and Ryan Harrow (Ga. St.).

-- Coastal Carolina is a No. 16 seed again and will meet Wisconsin. Cliff Ellis's team led top-seeded Virginia by double digits in the first half of last year's Tournament and was in front of the Cavs for nearly all of the first 30 minutes.

-- Alabama fired Anthony Grant on Sunday after six seasons. Grant took the Crimson Tide to just one NCAA Tournament, losing a nail-biter to Creighton in 2012, and a pair of NITs. The Tide will host Illinois on Tuesday in the NIT.

-- Florida isn't in the postseason for the first time since 1996-1997.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-16-2015, 02:00 PM

Kentucky leads the way with top spot

March 15, 2015

The Kentucky Wildcats ended up where everyone expected them on Selection Sunday: Seeded No. 1 on their quest to become the first undefeated team since 1976.

Oh, but there were surprises when the NCAA Tournament bracket came out, too.

Big-conference UCLA and Texas made it. Colorado State and Temple did not.

Wisconsin is a No. 1 seed for the first time in program history. But the Badgers must play in the West Region, where second-seeded Arizona is certain to draw more fans.

As for those play-in games that start Tuesday in Dayton. Well, one of the teams playing is Dayton - a No. 11 seed that will have a distinct home-court advantage Wednesday night against Boise State. Generally, that's not allowed during the tournament, but there's an exception because the committee said the Flyers were the last team in the 68-team field, and thus, had to play in the opening-round game.

''It falls within our policies and procedures,'' selection committee chairman Scott Barnes said. ''It's obviously a home-court advantage but we didn't waver from that decision.''

Fans have a few days to fill out their brackets (Sorry, no billion-dollar prize available for a perfect one this year), then the action starts in full on Thursday, when Kentucky headlines the slate against the winner of a play-in game between No. 16 seeds Manhattan and Hampton. A `1' has never lost to a `16.'

The other No. 1 seeds were Villanova in the East and Duke in the South. Those were pretty easy picks.

And then there was the total no-brainer - placing Kentucky at the top of the Midwest Region, and at the very top of the bracket. The Wildcats defeated Arkansas 78-63 on Sunday to improve to 34-0. If they win six more, they'll become the first team since then 1975-76 Indiana Hoosiers to go undefeated.

''I think I have the best team and the best players,'' said coach John Calipari, trying to lead the program to its ninth national title. ''Does that mean we'll win? No, it doesn't.''

The Wildcats are even-money picks in Las Vegas to win it all, and at least one coach, Bill Self of Kansas, thinks that might be a bargain.

''I shouldn't be talking about Vegas, but my point is, I think they're a pretty heavy favorite,'' said Self, whose Jayhawks are seeded No. 2 in the Midwest.

Other No. 2 seeds are Gonzaga in the South and Virginia in the East.

Barnes said Arizona and Virginia were the other teams in the mix for the top seed. He defended placing Duke there, saying the Blue Devils' road wins over Virginia, North Carolina and Louisville carried more weight than their lack of a conference title.

''Those strong, very elite wins, wins on the road - and let's not forget the eye test with Duke - all were considerations,'' he said.

Barnes called placing UCLA in the bracket as a No. 11 seed ''one of the tougher decisions we had to make.'' But he defended putting the Bruins (20-13) in with an RPI of 48, which is 18 spots lower than Colorado State and 14 below Temple.

''We felt they were gaining steam,'' Barnes said. ''They did have a good strength-of-schedule, they were playing better against tough competition. An example is the last game against Arizona (a 70-64 loss in the Pac-12 title game). I think the `eye test' was also a plus in putting them in the field.''

The Big Ten and Big 12 led the way with seven teams each in the bracket.

Other teams that just missed were Old Dominion and Richmond, which lost out to teams like Ole Miss and Texas that have stronger schedules baked into the cake because they play in major conferences.

As is custom, Barnes was short on specifics, though he said Wyoming's surprise victory in the Mountain West Conference stole away an at-large bid that would've gone to Temple - the last team out.

The next team out was Colorado State. Rams coach Larry Eutaschy broke away from his team's ''viewing party'' to make a brief statement.

''They are devastated, and they should be, because they are certainly an NCAA Tournament team,'' Eustachy said.

The bracket includes its usual share of quirks and tear-jerkers.

-UCLA's first game is against SMU, coached by Larry Brown, the 74-year-old turnaround artist who is taking his third team to the NCAA Tournament. The first team? UCLA, of course.

-Harvard, coached by former Duke star Tommy Amaker, faces his old rival, North Carolina, in the first round.

-Georgia State coach Ron Hunter watched the bracket unveiling with his left foot in a cast. He tore his Achilles' tendon while celebrating his program's first trip to the tournament since 2001. The 14th-seeded Panthers open against Baylor.

-Also seeded No. 14 is Albany, which made the tournament on a 3-pointer with 1 second left by Peter Hooley, whose mother died six weeks ago from colon cancer. No. 14 Albany opens against Oklahoma.

-Wichita State is in the same region with Kansas, an in-state program that won't schedule the Shockers, and Kentucky, which ended Wichita State's undefeated season last year in the second round.

This year, it's Kentucky that comes in with a `0' in that loss column.

''Everyone is zero-and-zero now,'' Calipari said. ''That's the key to this. It's a one-game shot. It's not best-of-5.''

**StarDust Bum** · 03-16-2015, 02:01 PM

Villanova earns No. 1 seed in East Region

March 15, 2015

VILLANOVA, Pa. (AP) - Villanova coach Jay Wright had a history lesson for the hundreds of fans that packed the student union for the Wildcats' coronation as a No. 1 seed.

''Remember, 1939. First Final Four ever, Villanova was in it,'' Wright said. ''That tradition stays strong.''

Wright had shiny reminders on the table in front of him at just how that tradition has thrived. Big East regular season champions trophy. Big East Tournament champions trophy. Awards, posters and even watches for all the coach and player of the year honors earned so far.

The Wildcats can only hope - and believe they are poised - to add to the trophy case.

Villanova waited 20 years to win another Big East Tournament title - and needed less than 24 more to find out it was No. 1 again, this time earning the top seed in the NCAA tournament's East Region.

The Wildcats (32-2) have won 15 games in a row heading into their East Regional opener against Lafayette (20-12) on Thursday in Pittsburgh. Villanova is a No. 1 seed for the second time in program history.

It's the 30th anniversary of the Wildcats' stunning upset of Georgetown in the 1985 national championship game.

''We are not done,'' Wright said to a roaring ovation.

While the Wildcats want to relive the glory days, they'd like to forget about more recent history. They were a No. 2 seed in the East last season but couldn't escape the first weekend, losing to eventual national champion UConn.

Virginia, the No. 1 seed in the East last season, is No. 2 this year and opens against No. 15 Belmont. Virginia won the ACC regular season crown for the second straight year and had the inside track for a top seed in the tournament until it lost to North Carolina in the semifinal.

''You know, ranking, seeding, all those things, that's more for fans,'' coach Tony Bennett said. ''But we've been around this long enough that we don't worry about that stuff at all.''

The Cavaliers won seven straight games after losing then-scoring leader Justin Anderson to a broken pinkie on his (left) shooting hand in a victory against Louisville on Feb. 7, then lost to the Cardinals in their regular season finale.

Anderson returned for the ACC Tournament a week after he had an appendectomy, but he was ineffective the Cavs' semifinal loss to North Carolina.

Darion Atkins, the lone senior, and junior guard Malcolm Brogdon were each named the ACC's defensive player of the year, Atkins by the media and Brogdon sharing the coaches award.

The rest of the East includes tournament regulars Oklahoma, Louisville and Michigan State. Northern Iowa, which stunned Kansas in 2010 to reach the Sweet 16, is back as the No. 5 seed after it won the Missouri Valley Conference championship.

The East Region final is March 29 at the Carrier Dome in Syracuse, New York with the winner advancing to the Final Four.

The Wildcats have not played in the Final Four since 2009.

''We could definitely win it. We can beat anybody in the country,'' Wright said.

Up first, a date with the Patriot League Tournament champion Leopards (20-12). Lafayette head coach Fran O'Hanlon was a former standout guard at Villanova, leading the Wildcats to two wins in the 1970 NCAA tournament as a senior.

With a win, the Wildcats would face the winner of eighth-seeded NC State, another 1980s national champion shocker, against No. 9 LSU.

Other matchups in the region include: Northern Iowa vs. No. 12 Wyoming; No. 4 Louisville vs. No. 13 UC Irvine; No. 6 Providence vs. the winner of Boise State-Dayton; No. 3 Oklahoma and Big 12 player of the year Buddy Hield take on No. 14 Albany; and No. 7 Michigan St. vs. No. 10 Georgia.

Should both teams win, Michigan State could play Virginia in a rematch of last year's Sweet 16. The Spartans won that one and lost in the Elite Eight to UConn.

With the No. 2 overall seed in the tournament, the road to Indianapolis surely goes through Villanova.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-16-2015, 02:02 PM

Wisconsin is No. 1 in NCAA West

March 15, 2015

Wisconsin had the No. 1 seed in the West Region of the NCAA Tournament before even playing in the Big Ten championship game.

Arizona (31-3) won the Pac-12 regular-season title and dominated Oregon in the tournament championship game, but the Badgers' resume was good enough for a top seed before beating Michigan State 80-69 in overtime of the Big Ten title game.

''We felt strong enough to keep them in that first line no matter what had happened,'' NCAA Tournament selection committee chairman Scott Barnes said Sunday after the 68-team bracket was announced.

Regardless of their seeding, the Badgers (31-3) have a hard road back to the Final Four in what may be the toughest region in the NCAA Tournament.

Joining Wisconsin in the West is a gauntlet of tough teams: Arizona, Baylor, North Carolina and Arkansas. The middle seeds will likely be tough outs, too, including Xavier, Virginia Commonwealth, Oregon and Oklahoma State.

Wisconsin, ranked sixth in The Associated Press poll, opens the NCAA Tournament against Coastal Carolina in Omaha on Friday, with the winner between Oregon and Oklahoma State up next.

''You've just got to match up with who they put in front of you,'' Wisconsin forward Sam Dekker said. ''We could have Oregon in the second round again, and we've got to be ready for that. It'll probably be another test. But it's the best time of the year.''

No. 2 seed Arizona will open against Texas Southern in Portland, Oregon.

The fifth-ranked Wildcats have been playing some of their best basketball at the end of the season, closing with an 11-game winning streak that includes the blowout win over the Ducks in the Pac-12 championship game Saturday night in Las Vegas.

''For every great team, there comes a point where you really have to come together as a team and we've done a great job of doing that,'' Arizona forward Brandon Ashley said. ''It's just the right time; everyone seems to be clicking.''

The bracket sets up what could be an epic rematch: Arizona vs. Wisconsin in the region finale.

The Badgers and Wildcats played in the West Region final a year ago, when Wisconsin withstood a last-second shot by Arizona in overtime for a one-point win to earn a trip to the Final Four.

But there's a lot of work to be done by both teams before the region final March 28 in Los Angeles.

Baylor (24-9) was a surprise No. 3 seed to some, but came from the rugged Big 12 Conference, which had seven teams make the field of 68.

The 16th-ranked Bears open the NCAA Tournament on Thursday in Jacksonville, Florida, against Georgia State.

The Panthers (24-9) are a strong defensive team who earned their first NCAA berth since 2001 by beating Georgia Southern in the Sun Belt title game, setting off a celebration that left coach Ron Hunter with a possible torn Achilles tendon.

North Carolina (24-11) is the West's No. 4 seed after coming up just short of becoming the first team in ACC Tournament history to win four games in four days. The 19th-ranked Tar Heels, who lost 90-82 to No. 11 Notre Dame in the ACC title game, open the NCAA Tournament against Ivy League champion Harvard on Thursday in Jacksonville.

The Crimson (22-7) earned their fourth straight NCAA appearance by beating Yale 53-51 in a one-game Ivy League playoff on Saturday.

No. 5 seed Arkansas (26-8) was blown out by top overall seed Kentucky in Sunday's SEC title game, but will be headed to its first NCAA Tournament under coach Mike Anderson and first since 2008.

The 21st-ranked Razorbacks also play Thursday in Jacksonville, opening against Wofford. The Terriers (28-6) won the Southern Conference championship for the fourth time in six years by beating Furman 67-64 in the title game.

Xavier (21-13) was considered a bubble team after losing by 17 to fourth-ranked Villanova in the Big East championship game. The Musketeers not only got in, they were rewarded with a No. 6 seed and will face the winner of the game between BYU and Mississippi in Jacksonville.

Virginia Commonwealth (26-9) had some tough times after losing Briante Weber, who suffered a season-ending right knee injury on Jan. 31, but rolled through the Atlantic 10 tournament, beating Dayton in the title game.

The seventh-seeded Rams have a tough opening game, facing No. 10 seed Ohio State (23-10) on Thursday in Portland. The Buckeyes went 4-4 down the stretch and lost to Michigan State in the Big Ten quarterfinals, but have D'Angelo Russell, a dangerous scorer who can carry a team almost singlehandedly.

No. 8 seed Oregon had a strong finish to the season despite its blowout loss in the Pac-12 title game and Oklahoma State made it off the NCAA Tournament bubble into the field despite losing to rival Oklahoma in the Big 12 quarterfinals.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-16-2015, 02:04 PM

Duke earns top seed in South Regional

March 15, 2015

CHARLOTTE, N.C. (AP) - Duke has earned the top seed in the South Region.

The Blue Devils (29-4) will play their NCAA Tournament opener Friday in Charlotte against the winner of a First Four matchup between North Florida and Robert Morris.

Duke is making its 20th straight NCAA Tournament appearance and is chasing its fifth national title and 12th berth in the Final Four under coach Mike Krzyzewski. The Blue Devils finished second in the Atlantic Coast Conference and lost to Notre Dame in the ACC Tournament semifinals.

Robert Morris (19-14) earned its eighth Northeast Conference tournament title and is in the tournament for the first time since 2010.

North Florida (23-11) earned its first NCAA Tournament berth by winning the Atlantic Sun Tournament.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-16-2015, 02:05 PM

Temple, ODU, Richmond top NIT field

March 15, 2015

Temple, Old Dominion, Colorado State and Richmond will have to settle for a No. 1 seed in the National Invitation Tournament.

The first four teams left out of the NCAA Tournament were automatically given the top seeds in the NIT field, which was announced Sunday. This is the first year the tournament is doing that.

Temple (23-10), which finished third in the American, was passed over in favor of teams like Dayton and UCLA after losing to SMU in the conference tournament. The Owls will now try to make a run in the NIT, starting with Wednesday's home game against Bucknell.

The field will also include Connecticut, last year's national champions. The Huskies will host Arizona State (17-15) on Wednesday - with a possible date against Richmond looming in the second round.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-16-2015, 02:06 PM

Dayton has home-court vs. Boise State

March 15, 2015

The NCAA Tournament will have a true home team for the first time in 28 years.

The Flyers were assigned to the First Four on their home floor Thursday night, matched against Boise State. The NCAA Tournament committee decided that's where Dayton belonged even if it means giving the Flyers a big advantage.

''Well, I think our travel's going to be a little harder than theirs,'' Boise State coach Leon Rice said. ''You get to the NCAA Tournament, you're going to play somebody really good. That's what we're going to do. Now we've got to play a road game, too.''

Rice wasn't complaining. Boise State (25-8) was worried that it wouldn't even make the tournament after losing to Wyoming 71-55 in overtime in the semifinals of the Mountain West Tournament.

''We're grateful, very grateful for this opportunity,'' Rice said.

The Flyers were the last team picked for the field of 68 by the selection committee, meaning it was automatically slotted for a game at the University of Dayton Arena.

''We had decided that if Dayton was an at-large, we would move that way without prejudice,'' said Scott Barnes, head of the committee. ''It is obviously something folks will talk about.''

The winner of the game on Wednesday night will go to Columbus, Ohio to play Providence on Friday.

Since 1989, teams haven't been allowed to play an NCAA Tournament game at their on-campus arena. The last time teams did so was 1987, when Arizona and Syracuse played on their home courts, according to STATS.

The First Four is an exception because there's no alternate site for an opening game. UD Arena has been home to the First Four since it began in 2011. Before that, it hosted the tournament's play-in games - called the Opening Round - from 2001 to 2010.

This is the first time Dayton wound up in one of those games.

The Flyers (25-8) were surprised to be relegated to it after they finished second in the Atlantic 10 during the regular season and lost in the conference tournament's title game to VCU 71-65.

The Flyers went 16-0 at home this season and have won their last 21 games at UD Arena, tied for the seventh-longest active winning streak in Division I.

It's the second year in a row that a local team played in Dayton. Xavier lost to North Carolina State 74-59 in the First Four last year, with Dayton fans in the crowd cheering against the rival Musketeers.

Dayton reached the Elite Eight last year by beating Ohio State, Syracuse and Stanford. It'll be the Flyers' 16th appearance in the NCAA Tournament.

Dayton also played an NCAA Tournament game on its home floor in 1985, before the NCAA changed its rules. It didn't help Dayton much that time, as Villanova pulled out a 51-49 win on its way to the national championship.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-16-2015, 02:08 PM

Tips for NCAA Tournament field on ways to beat Kentucky

March 16, 2015

There's a way to beat Kentucky.

Maybe.

So far, 34 game plans to defeat the Wildcats have been put together. Every one of them fell short. There's no shortage of theories on how to beat them - spread them out, pack the paint, shoot plenty of 3's, attack the rim - which all sound good, but none have actually panned out for an entire game on the floor.

If someone's going to actually throw the upset punch, now's the time. No. 1 Kentucky (34-0) is the top overall seed going into the NCAA Tournament that begins this week, the favorite to win it all and become the first undefeated national champion in the men's game since Indiana in 1976.

''Let me tell you, it's a one-game shot,'' Kentucky coach John Calipari said. ''Foul trouble, struggle, injury, have a bad game, someone else play out of their minds, which we have seen happen with us. ... It's not best-of-five. It's one and done.''

True, if someone makes 10 3-pointers, or scores 40, or the Wildcats all go cold simultaneously, millions of brackets will likely go poof at the same time.

Two teams took the Wildcats to overtime and six others found a way to keep the final margin within 10 points. But the Wildcats are perhaps the NCAA's biggest favorite in years isn't a fluke.

''They know how to win and they figure out how to win,'' Missouri coach Kim Anderson said. ''When they get behind they figure out how to get ahead, and obviously that's good coaching, that's good players, but it's an attitude. I think that is the most impressive thing.''

So here's three tips on how to beat them:

- LIMIT THE 3'S: Excluding the two overtime games, all six of the other teams who stayed within 10 of Kentucky for 40 minutes held the Wildcats to an average of 3.5 3-pointers in those games. That was, on average, about an eight-point savings over all other Kentucky games this season.

- GET GOOD SHOTS: Mississippi, Florida, LSU and Georgia all shot 47 percent or better in a game against Kentucky this season, losing those four games by an average of only 5.0 points. In Kentucky's other 30 games, the average margin at games' end was 23.1 points.

- ATTACK: In the eight ''close'' games, opponents shot 46 percent from 2-point range against Kentucky. In all other games, opponents shot 36.8 percent from inside the arc. And in the last three Wildcats' games decided by 10 or fewer, teams shot a staggering 57.4 percent on 2's.

Then again, they all lost.

''They're pretty doggone physically imposing,'' North Carolina coach Roy Williams said. ''Somebody said that Portland Trail Blazers are the only team in America that was taller.''

Shabazz Napier of the Miami Heat - he led Connecticut past Kentucky in last year's national title game, the Wildcats' last loss - believes defensively elite teams like Wisconsin and Virginia would have a realistic shot.

''During March Madness, it's more about who has the best guards,'' Napier said. ''You have to play their game, get up a couple points and then slow it up. But it's definitely going to be tough. I've seen some of their games - they're super-talented. They're the No. 1 team and undefeated for a reason.''

What makes Kentucky so difficult to stop is there's no absolute key guy on their team.

The Wildcats are the most balanced team in the country. And that depth is lethal.

Aaron Harrison is their leading scorer, his average of 11.3 points per game good for only spot No. 623 on the national rankings. He logs more minutes than any other Wildcat, and there are 1,134 other Division I players who average more minutes than he does. Combined, Kentucky has had players post a total of four 20-point games all season.

They come at teams in waves, and opponents don't know who to guard.

''You only have so many tricks up your sleeve to keep you in it when you are playing a team this good,'' Boston University coach Joe Jones said.

And that's the reality. For someone to keep Kentucky from cutting down the nets in Indianapolis, two things will almost certainly have to ring true.

One, some team is going to have to play close to perfectly.

Two, that team is also going to need some help from the Wildcats.

''I had said this during the course of the season,'' Auburn coach Bruce Pearl said. ''I told my team, I said, `We can beat any team in the league - except Kentucky.'''

**StarDust Bum** · 03-16-2015, 02:09 PM

Wildcats not the only team with talent heading into NCAAs

March 16, 2015

At Kentucky these days, it's a bigger surprise when a player sticks around than when he leaves.

That's why the coach, John Calipari, is the closest thing to a household name the Wildcats have.

Yes, Kentucky - undefeated and top seeded in the NCAA Tournament - has great players. Center Karl-Anthony Towns could be the second pick in the next NBA draft, and Willie Cauley-Stein might be lottery material, too. But however you cut it, the modern-day Kentucky program is better known for its ability to keep turning over NBA talent than for the individual players themselves.

It's not like that everywhere.

Here are five players who have led the way on their respective teams' road to March Madness:

FRANK KAMINSKY: The Wisconsin big man can do it all - shoot, pass, rebound. He's a skinny 7-footer, and though his frame and game don't automatically translate to the NBA, he'll get his chance there. Before that, though, he's bringing his 18-point, eight-rebound average into the tournament. The Badgers are a No. 1 seed thanks in large part to Kaminsky, who was the Player of the Year in the Big Ten and might be the best all-around college player in America. Wisconsin's first game is Friday against Coastal Carolina.

TYLER HARVEY: This year's Doug McDermott is ... drum roll, please: Tyler Harvey of Eastern Washington. Harvey leads the nation in scoring at 22.7 points a game. He scored 12 of his 18 points in the second half to lead the Eagles from 11 points down for a victory over Montana in the Big Sky title game Saturday. Next up, a meeting Thursday with No. 4 seed Georgetown. ''You dream about this moment when you're a kid,'' Harvey said. Last year, McDermott was the nation's leading scorer (and AP Player of the Year) and he led Creighton to the second round.

T.J. MCCONNELL: At 6-foot-1, the Arizona guard isn't imposing. His stat line - 9 points, six assists - won't blow anyone away. But he's a coach's son, the sort of guy who does everything right and makes sure his teammates do, too. He pumps up the crowd, keeps his team focused and is generally the kind of player that opponents can't stand. He may play his last meaningful basketball this month, but he's one of those increasingly rare seniors who will go down as great college players no matter what they do afterward. Arizona plays No. 15 seed Texas Southern on Thursday.

SETH TUTTLE: The 6-foot-8, 240-pound senior forward leads Northern Iowa in scoring (15.3 points) rebounding (6.8) and assists (3.3). He was named the Missouri Valley Conference player of the year. He's versatile - shoots 61 percent from the field but can also make the 3. UNI plays Friday against No. 12 seed Wyoming. Tuttle is a basketball junkie who hopes to coach someday. To get the program back to the Sweet 16 for the first time since its magical run in 2010, ''he's really leaving no stone unturned, as the saying goes, trying to get him better and us better,'' his coach, Ben Jacobson, said in an interview with Sports Illustrated.

JAHLIL OKAFOR: The Duke forward is proof that not every potential one-and-doner automatically migrates to Kentucky. Okafor was considered one of the two or three best high school players throughout his prep career, and has lived up to the hype during his freshman year at Duke. He's averaging 17.7 points and nine rebounds and was the first freshman to be named ACC Player of the Year. Assuming he leaves, he'll almost certainly be the first pick in the draft later this year. First up: An opening game Friday against either Robert Morris or North Florida.

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