MLB 2018 Season Long Thread Thru the World Series / Picks,Trends,News Etc. !!

[StarDust Bum]

MLB

Monday, October 1

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Milwaukee's last 7 games
Milwaukee is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games on the road
Milwaukee is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Milwaukee's last 6 games on the road
Milwaukee is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Chi Cubs
Milwaukee is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing Chi Cubs
The total has gone UNDER in 19 of Milwaukee's last 24 games when playing Chi Cubs
Milwaukee is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games when playing on the road against Chi Cubs
Milwaukee is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Chi Cubs
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Milwaukee's last 10 games when playing on the road against Chi Cubs
Chicago Cubs
Chi Cubs is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Chi Cubs is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 games at home
Chi Cubs is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Chi Cubs's last 13 games at home
Chi Cubs is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Milwaukee
Chi Cubs is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing Milwaukee
The total has gone UNDER in 19 of Chi Cubs's last 24 games when playing Milwaukee
Chi Cubs is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games when playing at home against Milwaukee
Chi Cubs is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Milwaukee
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Chi Cubs's last 10 games when playing at home against Milwaukee


Colorado Rockies
Colorado is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games
Colorado is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Colorado's last 7 games
Colorado is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Colorado's last 5 games on the road
Colorado is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing LA Dodgers
Colorado is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing LA Dodgers
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Colorado's last 9 games when playing LA Dodgers
Colorado is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against LA Dodgers
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Colorado's last 7 games when playing on the road against LA Dodgers
Los Angeles Dodgers
LA Dodgers is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games
LA Dodgers is 13-4 SU in its last 17 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of LA Dodgers's last 8 games
LA Dodgers is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games at home
LA Dodgers is 7-18 ATS in its last 25 games at home
LA Dodgers is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
LA Dodgers is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Colorado
LA Dodgers is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Colorado
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of LA Dodgers's last 9 games when playing Colorado
LA Dodgers is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Colorado
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Dodgers's last 7 games when playing at home against Colorado

[StarDust Bum]

MLB
Long Sheet

Monday, October 1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MILWAUKEE (95 - 67) at CHICAGO CUBS (95 - 67) - 1:05 PM
JHOULYS CHACIN (R) vs. JOSE QUINTANA (L)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO CUBS is 11-8 (+1.2 Units) against MILWAUKEE this season
14 of 19 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+8.5 Units)

JHOULYS CHACIN vs. CHICAGO CUBS since 1997
CHACIN is 4-6 when starting against CHICAGO CUBS with an ERA of 2.93 and a WHIP of 1.337.
His team's record is 4-6 (-2.2 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 7-2. (+4.8 units)

JOSE QUINTANA vs. MILWAUKEE since 1997
QUINTANA is 6-2 when starting against MILWAUKEE with an ERA of 1.60 and a WHIP of 0.817.
His team's record is 8-2 (+5.4 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-8. (-6.8 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

COLORADO (91 - 71) at LA DODGERS (91 - 71) - 4:05 PM
GERMAN MARQUEZ (R) vs. WALKER BUEHLER (R)
Top Trends for this game.
COLORADO is 259-456 (-80.6 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +125 to +175 since 1997.
COLORADO is 91-71 (+20.6 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
COLORADO is 44-37 (+16.1 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
COLORADO is 83-70 (+15.8 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
COLORADO is 31-24 (+13.4 Units) against the money line in road games in day games over the last 2 seasons.
COLORADO is 58-44 (+15.7 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
COLORADO is 55-35 (+23.4 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
COLORADO is 53-38 (+20.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
COLORADO is 39-23 (+21.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
MARQUEZ is 8-2 (+8.3 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season. (Team's Record)
LA DODGERS are 91-71 (-22.5 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
LA DODGERS are 17-23 (-18.7 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -125 to -175 this season.
LA DODGERS are 44-37 (-22.1 Units) against the money line in home games this season.
LA DODGERS are 7-12 (-15.0 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 7 or less this season.
LA DODGERS are 88-67 (-23.7 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
LA DODGERS are 51-46 (-21.2 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
LA DODGERS are 10-16 (-17.5 Units) against the money line after 3 or more consecutive wins this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA DODGERS is 12-7 (+1.5 Units) against COLORADO this season
10 of 18 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+1.6 Units)

GERMAN MARQUEZ vs. LA DODGERS since 1997
MARQUEZ is 2-0 when starting against LA DODGERS with an ERA of 3.19 and a WHIP of 1.032.
His team's record is 3-2 (+3.3 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-3. (-1.3 units)

WALKER BUEHLER vs. COLORADO since 1997
BUEHLER is 0-1 when starting against COLORADO with an ERA of 2.61 and a WHIP of 0.968.
His team's record is 2-3 (-2.4 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 3-1. (+2.2 units)

[StarDust Bum]

Season Win Total Update

2018 Final Results Listed Below

OVER Winners
Atlanta Braves - 74 ½
Boston Red Sox - 91 ½
Chicago Cubs - 94 ½
Colorado Rockies - 82
Houston Astros - 96 ½
Milwaukee Brewers - 84 ½
New York Yankees - 94 ½
Oakland Athletics - 74 ½
Philadelphia Phillies - 75 ½
Pittsburgh Pirates - 73
Seattle Mariners - 81 ½
St. Louis Cardinals - 85 ½
Tampa Bay Rays - 77 ½

UNDER Winners
Arizona Diamondbacks - 85 ½
Baltimore Orioles - 73
Cincinnati Reds - 73 ½
Chicago White Sox - 68
Cleveland Indians - 94 ½
Detroit Tigers - 68 ½
Kansas City Royals - 71 ½
Los Angeles Angels - 84 ½
Los Angeles Dodgers - 96 ½
Miami Marlins - 64 ½
Minnesota Twins - 82 ½
New York Mets - 81
San Diego Padres - 69 ½
San Francisco Giants - 81 ½
Texas Rangers - 77 ½
Toronto Blue Jays - 81
Washington Nationals - 92 ½


National League Win Totals
Team Win Total - 2018 Record on 9/28/18
Arizona Diamondbacks 85 ½ 82-80
Atlanta Braves 74 ½ 90-72
Chicago Cubs 94 ½ 95-67
Cincinnati Reds 73 ½ 67-95
Colorado Rockies 82 91-71
Los Angeles Dodgers 96 ½ 91-71
Miami Marlins 64 ½ 63-98
Milwaukee Brewers 84 ½ 95-67
New York Mets 81 77-85
Philadelphia Phillies 75 ½ 80-82
Pittsburgh Pirates 73 82-79
San Diego Padres 69 ½ 66-96
San Francisco Giants 81 ½ 73-89
St. Louis Cardinals 85 ½ 88-74
Washington Nationals 92 ½ 82-80


American League Win Totals
Team Win Total - 2018 Record on 9/28/18
Baltimore Orioles 73 47-115
Boston Red Sox 91 ½ 108-54
Chicago White Sox 68 62-100
Cleveland Indians 94 ½ 91-71
Detroit Tigers 68 ½ 64-98
Houston Astros 96 ½ 103-59
Kansas City Royals 71 ½ 58-104
Los Angeles Angels 84 ½ 80-82
Minnesota Twins 82 ½ 78-84
New York Yankees 94 ½ 100-62
Oakland Athletics 74 ½ 97-65
Seattle Mariners 81 ½ 89-73
Tampa Bay Rays 77 ½ 90-72
Texas Rangers 77 ½ 67-95
Toronto Blue Jays 81 73-89

Records updated through 9.30.2018

[StarDust Bum]

According to reports, Jhoulys Chacin will get the start for the Milwaukee Brewers today in their one-game tiebreaker game at Wrigley Field against the Chicago Cubs.


*********************


MLB
Dunkel

Monday, October 1


Milwaukee @ Chicago Cubs

Game 951-952
October 1, 2018 @ 1:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Milwaukee
(Chacin) 15.762
Chicago Cubs
(Quntana) 17.684
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Chicago Cubs
by 2
10
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Chicago Cubs
-130
8
Dunkel Pick:
Chicago Cubs
(-130); Over

Colorado @ LA Dodgers

Game 953-954
October 1, 2018 @ 4:05 am

Dunkel Rating:
Colorado
(Marquez) 17.890
LA Dodgers
(Buehler) 18.973
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Dodgers
by 1
5
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Dodgers
-170
7
Dunkel Pick:
LA Dodgers
(-170); Under

[StarDust Bum]

MONDAY, OCTOBER 1
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

MIL at CHC 01:05 PM
MIL +117
U 8.0

COL at LAD 04:09 PM
COL +156
O 7.0

[StarDust Bum]

Tiebreakers have been perilous for Dodgers
October 1, 2018
By The Associated Press

The Dodgers are about to play another end-of-season tiebreaker. It's a scenario that hasn't been kind to them over the years.

Los Angeles will take on Colorado for the NL West title Monday, one of two one-game playoffs that day in the National League. The Cubs and Brewers also need to break a tie for the NL Central.

These aren't elimination games - the losers will end up as the NL wild cards - but there will still be some pressure, since the division winners head straight to the Division Series. The tiebreakers are considered part of the regular season, and stats are counted accordingly.

For the Dodgers, these not-quite-postseason games have been fraught with peril. When they were in Brooklyn, the Dodgers finished tied with the rival Giants for the 1951 NL pennant, and then famously lost a three-game series to New York on a home run by Bobby Thomson . The 1946 pennant was also decided by a best-of-three tiebreaker, with the Cardinals beating Brooklyn in two straight .

After moving to Los Angeles, the Dodgers did win a best-of-three series against the Milwaukee Braves for the 1959 pennant, but three years later, it was the Giants again who stood in the way. San Francisco scored four runs in the ninth inning at Dodger Stadium for the decisive victory of a three-game tiebreaker series for the 1962 pennant.

A one-game playoff in 1980 was no better for the Dodgers, who were beaten 7-1 by Houston for the NL West championship.

The Rockies have a much happier (and shorter) history with these games. They won a wild card in 2007 by beating San Diego in a one-game playoff. That game went 13 innings, with Colorado prevailing 9-8 when Matt Holliday may or may not have touched the plate when he was credited with the winning run .

The Cubs won the NL wild card in 1998 by beating San Francisco 5-3 in a one-game playoff.

Elsewhere around the majors:

LIKE CLOCKWORK

Assuming Nolan Arenado doesn't hit 12 in Colorado's playoff game Monday, Oakland's Khris Davis will be this year's major league home run leader with 48. Davis, however, was getting attention for a different reason Sunday. He finished the season with a .247 batting average - the same figure he had in each of the previous three years. His career average is .248.

HIGHLIGHT

The Atlanta Braves are NL East champions and will play in the NL Division Series against ... somebody. Once Monday's playoff games are over, the Braves will know their opponent - it's whoever wins the NL West. The postseason will be a chance for a wide audience to see star rookie Ronald Acuna Jr., who showed off his talent Sunday with a leaping catch high against the wall in left field on a drive by Philadelphia's Carlos Santana.

LINE OF THE WEEK

The Rockies forced their way into that playoff for the NL West title by routing Washington 12-0 on Sunday. Charlie Blackmon hit for the cycle with a triple in the first inning, a homer in the third, a single in the fifth and a double in the eighth.

Colorado had another impressive individual performance earlier in the week when German Marquez began a start against Philadelphia with eight straight strikeouts , tying a record. Jim Deshaies set the modern record by striking out his first eight batters in a 1986 game, and Jacob deGrom matched the feat in 2014. Marquez is set to start Monday's playoff game.

[StarDust Bum]

Brewers turn to Chacin for tiebreaker against Cubs
October 1, 2018
By The Associated Press

CHICAGO (AP) Jhoulys Chacin will start the NL Central tiebreaker for the Milwaukee Brewers.

The 30-year-old Chacin is 15-8 with a 3.56 ERA in 34 starts. The right-hander pitched five innings of one-hit ball in a 2-1 victory at St. Louis on Wednesday night.

Milwaukee plays the Chicago Cubs on Monday for the NL Central title. The winner at Wrigley Field gets a spot in the division series and home-field advantage throughout the NL playoffs. The loser plays again Tuesday night, hosting the runner-up in the NL West in the wild-card game.

The Brewers did not announce their starter until Monday morning.

Jose Quintana pitches for the Cubs. The left-hander is 6-2 with a 1.60 ERA in 10 starts against Milwaukee.

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Tuesday's six-pack

Major league teams with best attendance this season:

1) LA Dodgers 47,033 per game

2) Bronx 42,998

3) St Louis 42,019

4) San Francisco 38,965

5) Chicago Cubs 38,798

6) LA Angels 37,286

**********

Armadillo: Tuesday's List of 13: Nobody asked me, but……

13) You don’t think pro football players are tough? Vikings’ long snapper Kevin McDermott lost the tip off of his left pinky Thursday, when it got caught in a player’s helmet. He didn’t just lose his fingernail, he lost the tip of his finger, and later on, he came back into the game, missing only one punt snap while they bandaged up the finger.

12) Bad beat from late Saturday night: USC was -3.5 over Arizona, and led 24-14 in the last 2:00. Wildcats had 4th-and-goal inside the 10-yard line, but instead of kicking the easy FG to make the game a one-score game, Kevin Sumlin goes for it and Arizona scores a TD with 1:40 left.

Now all they all have to do to cover the spread is make the extra poi— you got it, they missed, and USC won 24-20, covering by half a point.

11) UMass football coach Mark Whipple was suspended without pay for one week by the school, after he drew an analogy to rape while discussing a sequence in his team’s game.

On UMass’ radio broadcast after the Minutemen’s 58-42 loss at Ohio U, Whipple referred to a play on which he believed the Bobcats should have been called for pass interference, saying, “We had a chance there … and they rape us, and (the referee) picks up the flag.”

No bueno. Choose your words better, coach.

10) Billy McKinney is a 24-year old OF for the Blue Jays who was a first round pick of the Oakland A’s five years ago. Weird thing is, he’s already been traded three times:

— July 5, 2014, A’s traded him to the Cubs as part of the Jeff Samardzija/Addison Russell swap.
— July 25, 2016, Cubs traded him to New York as part of the Aroldis Chapman trade.
— July 26, 2018, New York traded him to Toronto as part of the JA Happ swap.

9) After a 56-27 loss to Notre Dame last week, Wake Forest fired defensive coordinator Jay Sawvel; their defense scored two TD’s Saturday in a 56-24 win over Rice. Obviously Rice isn’t close to being as good as Notre Dame, but did the coaching change make a difference?

8) With Sam Bradford the #3 QB in Arizona now, he loses an active roster bonus of $312,500 per game, not that he is hurting for money. Bradford banked $65M in the five years he played for the Rams, so he should be OK financially.

7) The grandfather of Rams’ WR Cooper Kupp was an offensive lineman in the NFL for 11 years; he played for the Saints in their early days, where he blocked for Archie Manning.

6) NHL’s Carolina Hurricanes will wear Hartford Whaler throwback uniforms for their December 23 home game; very cool green uniforms with the great Whaler logo. Hurricanes were the Hartford Whalers from 1972-97, before moving from Hartford to Raleigh.

5) Tony Parker looks weird in a Charlotte Hornets’ uniform; he played 17 years for the Spurs. Some things you just get used to.

4) There is a US Senator from Rhode Island named Sheldon Whitehouse; if you’re a politician and your last name is Whitehouse, don’t you have to run for President?

3) Brewers 3, Cubs 1……….Dodgers 5, Rockies 2

Colorado visits Wrigley Field tonight in the NL Wild Card game.

2) Last week, a psychology professor at the University of Toronto started showing a presentation to his class of 500 students, but instead of his presentation showing on the screen, a hard core porn movie appeared. Whoops.

1) Last three games the Pittsburgh Steelers played at home, they allowed 37.7 ppg. Atlanta is coming to Steel City this coming Sunday; Falcons’ defense is a mess, too.

[StarDust Bum]

MLB
Dunkel

Tuesday, October 2


Colorado @ Chicago Cubs

Game 937-938
October 2, 2018 @ 8:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Colorado
(Freeland) 15.598
Chicago Cubs
(Lester) 18.068
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Chicago Cubs
by 2 1/2
8
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Chicago Cubs
-135
7 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Chicago Cubs
(-135); Over




MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Tuesday, October 2

National League
Rockies (91-72) @ Cubs (95-68)
Freeland is 6-0, 2.66 in his last seven starts; under is 8-3 in his last 11. He lost 3-2 to the Cubs April 30 in Wrigley, giving up three runs in 7 IP. Team in his starts: 23-10, 10-8 road
5-inning record: 17-10-6 Allowed run in 1st inning: 9-33

Lester is 3-0, 1.50 in his last three starts; over is 12-5 in his last 17. He allowed two runs in 5.2 IP vs Colorado April 30, a game Cubs later won 3-2. Team in his starts: 24-8, 12-5 home
5-inning record: 18-8-6 Allowed run in 1st inning: 9-32

Colorado won nine of its last 11 games, including three of last four on road. Rockies played at home Sunday, in LA yesterday. Cubs won four of their last six games, all at home. These teams split six games this year, with road team going 2-1 in other team’s ballpark.

Cubs are in playoffs for 4th year in a row; they won the World Series two years ago. Colorado lost Wild Card game LY, their first playoffs appearance since 2009.

______________________________

Teams’ records in first five innings:
Team (road-home-total)- thru 9/18
Cubs 31-32-14……33-31-11…….64-63
Colo 35-29-15……37-26-11……71-55

%age of times teams score in first inning (road/home/total- 9/18)
Cubs 15-76……..23-72……..38
Colo 23-78…….29-74.…….52




MLB
Weather Report

Tuesday, October 2






MLB

Tuesday, October 2

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Colorado Rockies
Colorado is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games
Colorado is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games
Colorado is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Colorado's last 15 games on the road
Colorado is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Chi Cubs
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Colorado's last 12 games when playing Chi Cubs
Colorado is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Chi Cubs
Colorado is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Chi Cubs
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Colorado's last 8 games when playing on the road against Chi Cubs
Chicago Cubs
Chi Cubs is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Chi Cubs's last 9 games
Chi Cubs is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games at home
Chi Cubs is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Chi Cubs's last 14 games at home
Chi Cubs is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Colorado
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Chi Cubs's last 12 games when playing Colorado
Chi Cubs is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games when playing at home against Colorado
Chi Cubs is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Colorado
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Chi Cubs's last 8 games when playing at home against Colorado

[StarDust Bum]

MLB
Long Sheet

Tuesday, October 2

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

COLORADO (91 - 72) at CHICAGO CUBS (95 - 68) - 8:05 PM
KYLE FREELAND (L) vs. JON LESTER (L)
Top Trends for this game.
COLORADO is 259-457 (-81.6 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +125 to +175 since 1997.
CHICAGO CUBS are 42-23 (+12.3 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.
LESTER is 24-8 (+14.2 Units) against the money line in all games this season. (Team's Record)
LESTER is 44-16 (+24.2 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
COLORADO is 91-72 (+19.6 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
COLORADO is 26-17 (+9.7 Units) against the money line on the road when the money line is +125 to -125 this season.
COLORADO is 44-38 (+15.1 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
COLORADO is 66-45 (+22.0 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
COLORADO is 61-47 (+19.0 Units) against the money line against left-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
COLORADO is 53-39 (+19.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
COLORADO is 39-24 (+20.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
FREELAND is 23-10 (+15.5 Units) against the money line in all games this season. (Team's Record)
FREELAND is 19-11 (+13.1 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
FREELAND is 15-6 (+10.7 Units) against the money line in night games this season. (Team's Record)
FREELAND is 14-7 (+8.9 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season. (Team's Record)
CHICAGO CUBS are 1790-1830 (-265.5 Units) against the money line in all games since 1997.
CHICAGO CUBS are 39-37 (-16.2 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -125 to -175 over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO CUBS are 957-854 (-156.6 Units) against the money line in home games since 1997.
CHICAGO CUBS are 18-27 (-20.8 Units) against the money line in home games in October games since 1997.
CHICAGO CUBS are 4-9 (-9.0 Units) against the money line in home games when playing on Tuesday this season.
CHICAGO CUBS are 41-40 (-17.5 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO CUBS are 211-243 (-61.8 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
COLORADO is 3-3 (+1.5 Units) against CHICAGO CUBS this season
3 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=-0.2 Units, Under=-0.4 Units)
KYLE FREELAND vs. CHICAGO CUBS since 1997
FREELAND is 0-2 when starting against CHICAGO CUBS with an ERA of 4.15 and a WHIP of 1.154.
His team's record is 0-2 (-2.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-2. (-2.2 units)
JON LESTER vs. COLORADO since 1997
LESTER is 2-3 when starting against COLORADO with an ERA of 1.91 and a WHIP of 1.062.
His team's record is 3-3 (-2.6 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 6-0. (+6.2 units)

[StarDust Bum]

NL Wild Card Best Bet
October 2, 2018
By BetOnline.ag


NL Wildcard Game Betting Preview

Colorado at Chicago Cubs (ESPN, 8:05 p.m. ET)

The MLB playoffs are finally here and if you're a Colorado Rockies fan you were hoping they'd start at least a day later.

After going through 162 games tied with L.A for the NL West crown, the Colorado Rockies had to travel to L.A for Game 163 yesterday and are now in Chicago thanks to a loss there. That's three straight games in three days in three different cities for the Rockies and that's a brutal spot for anyone. Add on top of that the fact that they've got to start their best starter in a one game, winner-take-all scenario and that means that lefty Kyle Freeland gets the nod on just three days rest.

Can the Rockies' backs be more up against the wall here?

2018 Head-to-Head Matchups (Series Tied 3-3, Total 3-3)

Colorado vs. Chicago (Coors Field)
Apr 20 Cubs (-104) 16 Rockies 5 (Over 9)
Apr 21 Rockies (+114) 5 Cubs 2 (Under 9.5)
Apr 22 Cubs (-110) 9 Rockies 7 (Over 10.5)

Chicago vs. Colorado (Wrigley Field)
Apr 30 Cubs (-190) 3 Rockies 2 (Under 10)
May 1 Rockies (+114) 3 Cubs 1 (Under 10.5)
May 2 Rockies (+100) 11 Cubs 2 (Over 10.5)

BetOnline.ag Odds: Colorado (+129), Chicago (-139); Total set at 7

Without question this is a horrific scheduling spot for the Rockies given all the travel they've had to do, and quite honestly it's a good enough reason to stay away from betting the side all together. That's not to say that the Cubs have this game won already, but Chicago this will be Chicago's third different opponent the last three days too – the difference being all of those games were home games for the Cubs.

Fatigue was an issue for Chicago the final month-plus of the year, so there will be no sympathy from them for the Rockies, as these guys simply have to go out and just try to find a way to get the job done for one night. It's clearly not a coin-flip game given the travel, home-field etc, but either side could end up winning here and it's why I'm staying far away from playing either side.

It's the total I'm looking at though as while scoring does see a surge downwards in October (colder weather, better pitchers seeing more time, more bullpen moves to get an out or two) this number of 7 is probably about a run too low if you ask me.

For one, Kyle Freeland has been stellar for Colorado all year long (2.85 ERA), asking him to have his best stuff on just three days rest – after a month where he was asked to be at his best every time out there in trying to claim a division – is a big ask. Chicago's bats have shown all September that they tend to bounce back after a poor offensive showing, and after getting just three hits in their tiebreaker game yesterday, I do expect that lumber to wake up here.

Guys like Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, and others are too heavily relyed on to make things work for the Cubs, and they aren't going to win many games when it's just Anthony Rizzo hitting. Chicago wasn't great against southpaws this year - 21st in MLB in runs scored vs lefties – but getting a guy with a fatigued arm should help their cause.

While the Cubs may not have the greatest numbers against southpaws, Colorado does. The Rockies get to face veteran Jon Lester here, and for a Colorado team that led MLB in runs scored vs southpaws (258), I do believe we see a much better effort from their offense as well. They were no-hit for 6+ innings yesterday, but back-to-back HR's by Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story in the 9th yesterday might be that spark that this offense needed going forward.

It will be interesting to see how well something like that carries over to tonight's game, as Colorado's hitters have to figure that they are going to need to pull a bit more weight in this spot simply because they can't expect Freeland to be at his best in his first career start on just three days rest. After all, it was in this game a year ago that Colorado lost to Arizona in a shootout (11-8), so it's not like the pressure of the moment hindered this offense at all.

So while the wind can cause issues at Wrigley Field (expected to be slightly in from right-center) and playoff baseball is generally lower scoring, I actually see this wildcard game playing out in a similar fashio to the two we saw a year ago when 12 and 19 runs were scored respectively. We may not get that high tonight, but we should see at 8+ runs scored.

Odds per - BetOnline.ag

Best Bet: Over 7

MLB Wild Card History (2012-2017)

Betting Trends:
-- Road Teams have gone 7-5
-- Favorites have gone 7-5
-- The 'over/under' has gone 6-6

2017 WILD CARD RESULTS

Game Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
AL Minnesota at N.Y. Yankees (-255) 8-4 Favorite Over (7.5)
NL Colorado at Arizona (-150) 11-8 Favorite Over (8.5)

2016 WILD CARD RESULTS
Game Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
AL Baltimore at Toronto (-165) 5-2 (11 innings) Favorite Under (8.5)
NL San Francisco (-120) at N.Y. Mets 4-0 Favorite Under (6)

2015 WILD CARD RESULTS
Game Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
AL Houston (-110) at N.Y. Yankees 3-0 Favorite Under (7)
NL Chicago (-125) at Pittsburgh 4-0 Favorite Under (5.5)

2014 WILD CARD RESULTS
Game Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
AL Oakland at Kansas City (+100) 9-8 (12) Underdog Over (6.5)
NL San Francisco (-110) at Pittsburgh 8-0 Favorite Over (6.5)

2013 WILD CARD RESULTS
Game Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
AL Tampa Bay (-110) at Cleveland 6-2 Favorite Over (6.5)
NL Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (-145) 4-0 Favorite Under (7)

2012 WILD CARD RESULTS
Game Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
AL Baltimore (+210) at Texas 5-2 Underdog Under 9
NL St. Louis (+155) at Atlanta 6-3 Underdog Over 6.5

[StarDust Bum]

For Cubs, season ends on sour note with loss to Rockies
October 3, 2018
By The Associated Press

CHICAGO (AP) No team in the National League piled up more victories than the Chicago Cubs through 162 games. That seems like small consolation now.

Kyle Hendricks gave up a tiebreaking single to Tony Wolters in the 13th inning, sending the Cubs to a 2-1 loss to the Colorado Rockies in a marathon wild-card loss on Tuesday night.

Chicago lost two home games with a chance to reach the NL Division Series. The Cubs scored a total of two runs over 22 innings, dropping a tiebreaker to Milwaukee for the NL Central championship and then getting knocked out of the playoffs by the Rockies.

They squandered a dominant start by Jon Lester, got shut down by Kyle Freeland and wasted several big scoring opportunities. Hendricks came in to retire the final two batters in the 12th and got the first two in the 13th before running into trouble.

Trevor Story grounded a single through the left side and Gerardo Parra lined one to right, putting runners at first and third. Wolters - who came into the game as part of a double switch in the 12th - then drove an RBI single up the middle.

In the bottom half, Terrance Gore got sent back to the box following a replay challenge after the umpire initially ruled he was hit by a pitch from Scott Oberg. Gore, Javier Baez and Albert Almora then struck out, bringing a marathon game and a difficult season to a fitting end.

''Yea, we played that game a lot,'' manager Joe Maddon said. ''Believe me, it was on my mind for a large part of it. We had some opportunities, we just could not cash in. They pitched really well, too, but we need to figure that out in the offseason next spring training. As my buddy Dave would say, we left too much chicken on the bone right there. We've had plenty of opportunities and I'm not here to denigrate anybody, our work's put in, the hay's in the barn, everybody cares, it just didn't play out this way offensively. We caught the ball, we pitched really, really well. Like I said, the esprit de corps I can't ask for more. So it was just something we really have to focus on in the offseason.''

The Cubs had a long line of injuries and didn't get the contributions they expected from some key players. That didn't stop them from going from 4 1/2 games behind Milwaukee to leading the division by five games in early September, only to have the Brewers tie them on the final weekend of the regular season.

They got shut down by Jhoulys Chacin in a 3-1 tiebreaker loss to Milwaukee, then had to watch Colorado celebrate after winning the longest win-or-go homegame in major league history.

It was a bitter end for a team that made the NLCS the previous three years and won a World Series in 2016 that ended a drought dating to 1908. A franchise that for decades was defined by heartache has more wins the past four seasons than any other team.

But this loss stings.

The Cubs - who finished fourth in the NL in runs despite being held to one or zero in 39 regular-season games - managed just four hits in 6 2/3 innings against Freeland. Anthony Rizzo grounded into a double-play with two on in the sixth, and they left the bases loaded in the seventh when Jason Heyward struck out.

Chicago had another chance in the 11th.

Baez walked leading off against Seunghwan Oh and moved up on a sacrifice bunt by Almora. Daniel Murphy was intentionally walked and Baez got tagged out by Arenado on Willson Contreras' grounder to third.

As Arenado applied the tag in the middle of the base path between second and third, Baez wrapped his arms around him. Arenado smiled and patted him rather than try a throw to first.

Chris Rusin then retired pinch-hitter Victor Caratini on a grounder to first to end the inning.

[StarDust Bum]

LEADING OFF: Yanks' Severino gets wild-card do-over vs A's
October 2, 2018
By The Associated Press

A look at what's happening around the majors Wednesday:

TRY AGAIN

Luis Severino gets a wild-card do-over when he starts for the Yankees against Oakland in a winner-take-all matchup. Severino allowed three runs and got just one out in last year's wild-card game against Minnesota before New York rallied for an 8-4 victory. Severino was chosen over J.A. Happ and Masahiro Tanaka despite a second-half slump.

''I think he's equipped in so many ways to handle this, and perhaps most importantly, he's equipped with amazing stuff and the ability to dominate big league hitters because he's such a talented pitcher,'' manager Aaron Boone said.

The A's will counter with a bullpen game, beginning with reliever Liam Hendriks - among the more unlikely postseason starters ever. Hendriks was waived off the 40-man roster in June, spent two months in the minors, then emerged in September as Oakland's go-to ''opener'' to cover for an injury-decimated rotation.

Hendriks (0-1) will be just the fourth pitcher to start a playoff game after a regular season of no wins, according to the Elias Sports Bureau. The previous three missed most of their seasons either to serve in a war or because of injury.

DOUBTFUL DANSBY

Braves shortstop Dansby Swanson appears to be a longshot to make the team's roster for its NL Division Series against the Los Angeles Dodgers. Swanson partially tore a ligament in his left hand on a swing against the Mets' Noah Syndergaard on Sept. 24. He had pain when he tried to swing a bat Saturday in Philadelphia and received more treatment Tuesday, remaining inside while his teammates were on the SunTrust Park field.

Manager Brian Snitker says Swanson has ''a chance'' to play, but added ''I don't know how great of one.''

TWIN CITIES SEACH PARTY

Minnesota is looking for a new manager a day after firing Paul Molitor. Chief baseball officer Derek Falvey and general manager Thad Levine cited a pursuit of more productive player development for their younger players. The move comes amid struggles for Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano, players long targeted as franchise cornerstones. Minnesota is willing to wait until after the World Series to decide on a skipper in case a candidate is still participating.

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Wednesday's six-pack

Some interesting NFL trends for the week:

— Arizona is 2-8 in its last ten games as road underdogs.

— Denver is 2-13-1 vs spread in its last 16 games.

— Detroit covered six of its last eight games.

— Cleveland is 4-12 in its last 16 games as home underdogs.

— Ravens are 13-4 vs spread in their last 17 divisional games.

— Green Bay is 10-5 in its last 15 games as divisional road favorites.

**********

Armadillo: Wednesday's List of 13: In praise of these A’s……..

13) Last three years, Oakland A’s finished last in AL West, winning 68-69-75 games.

A’s have the lowest payroll in the major leagues, but they made the playoffs this season, going 97-65, something no one thought possible back in the spring. Great managing job by Bob Melvin; this is 4th time in last seven years Oakland is in the playoffs, but first time since 2014.

How they’ve gotten to this point is really pretty amazing.

12) Oakland has used 53 players this season, 33 of them pitchers.

Their two best starting pitchers right now are Mike Fiers and Edwin Jackson; Fiers’ first game with the A’s was August 8, Jackson’s first game was June 25. Jackson is pitching for his 13th major league team.

11) Kendall Graveman was Oakland’s Opening Day starter; he lasted until May 11 before he blew his arm out.

Sean Manaea pitched a no-hitter against Boston, but he got hurt August 24 and is done until 2020. A’s went 16-11 in Manaea’s starts this year- they acquired him in the Ben Zobrist trade when Kansas City made their World Series run in 2015.

Gossett, Triggs, Montas, Blackburn started a combined 31 games; A’s went 17-14 in those games.

10) February 12, 2016, the A’s traded two minor leaguers to Milwaukee for Khris Davis, who has gone on to hit 133 homers, knock in 335 runs. Pretty good trade.

One of the minor leaguers, Jacob Nottingham, has appeared in nine major league games. Davis is mostly a DH, so he wouldn’t have done Milwaukee much good, but a damn good trade.

9) On March 12, 2018, Oakland signed C Jonathan Lucroy, giving their pitchers/defenses an anchor, the team a leader. Lucroy hasn’t hit much, but this will be his third straight year in the playoffs (Texas 2016, Colorado 2017). His acquisition was huge for the A’s.

8) Ramon Laureano is a 24-year old OF who hit .227 in the AA Texas League LY; when you hit .227 in the hitter-friendly Texas League, it is usually time to start looking for a new career, but since making his Oakland debut August 3, Laureano has an on-base% of .364, is a terrific CF with a great arm- he doubled a runner off first base in Anaheim with a throw that went 107 yards in the air!!!!

A’s got him from Houston in a trade for a pitcher who went 5-8 in A ball this year.

7) When they make Moneyball 2, the story of Stephen Piscotty’s family will be front/center. St Louis was going to trade Piscotty last winter, but his mother had Alzheimer’s and he wanted to be close to her in her final months, so Piscotty asked to be traded to the A’s or Giants.

Last December, he got traded to Oakland and has hit 27 homers with 88 RBI, many of them in key spots. Quite a story.

6) Last July, the A’s were awful and Washington needed bullpen help to make the playoffs, so Oakland dealt Doolittle/Madson to Washington for Blake Treinen and two minor leaguers (one of whom is Jesus Luzardo, a big prospect).

Treinen has turned into one of the best closers this season, with 38 saves. Luzardo is expected to be a star down the road.

5) 41-year old Fernando Rodney (acquired August 9) and Jeurys Familia (July 21) pitch the 7th and 8th innings if the A’s are winning. When your starting pitchers are mostly all hurt and have a hard time finishing six innings, you load up on relievers and hope the starting pitcher gets 15 outs. Lou Trivino pitched the 6th inning most of the season, when needed.

4) Oakland’s infielders are very good; a pair of Matts, Chapman/Olson are young corner infielders who appear headed for stardom. Chapman and Nolan Arenado and the two best defensive 3B in the major leagues right now.

Marcus Semien/Jed Lowrie give the A’s solid defense up the middle and timely hitting- Lowrie knocked in 99 runs. It is so unusual for a playoff team to have starting pitching being the weakest part of the team.

3) On June 5, the A’s lost 6-4 to the Angels, dropping them to 34-36; since then, Oakland is 63-29, the best record in MLB during that time. An astounding turnaround.

2) Bob Melvin managed the Mariners for two years, Arizona for five; this is his 8th year with Oakland, his hometown team. Can’t imagine why he got fired from the other places; he is calm, smart and guys play their butts off for him, otherwise a 34-36 team wouldn’t go on a 62-27 run. Excellent manager.

1) This is the 50th anniversary of the A’s first season in Oakland, after they moved west from Kansas City. It has been a great season for these guys; hopefully it’ll last another month or so.

[StarDust Bum]

MLB
Dunkel

Wednesday, October 3


Oakland @ NY Yankees

Game 939-940
October 3, 2018 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Oakland
(Hendriks) 16.004
NY Yankees
(Severino) 17.240
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
NY Yankees
by 1
13
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
NY Yankees
-180
8 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
NY Yankees
(-180); Over




MLB
Long Sheet

Wednesday, October 3

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

OAKLAND (97 - 65) at NY YANKEES (100 - 62) - 8:05 PM
LIAM HENDRIKS (R) vs. LUIS SEVERINO (R)
Top Trends for this game.
NY YANKEES are 97-65 (+21.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 97-65 (+36.0 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
OAKLAND is 44-33 (+12.1 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.
OAKLAND is 47-34 (+19.6 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
OAKLAND is 60-43 (+20.9 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
OAKLAND is 65-40 (+28.1 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
OAKLAND is 41-23 (+24.4 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.
OAKLAND is 41-43 (+7.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
OAKLAND is 23-19 (+10.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
OAKLAND is 3-3 (+1.3 Units) against NY YANKEES this season
4 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+2.0 Units)

LIAM HENDRIKS vs. NY YANKEES since 1997
HENDRIKS is 0-1 when starting against NY YANKEES with an ERA of 7.37 and a WHIP of 1.228.
His team's record is 0-2 (-2.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-0. (+1.0 units)

LUIS SEVERINO vs. OAKLAND since 1997
SEVERINO is 1-1 when starting against OAKLAND with an ERA of 5.22 and a WHIP of 1.403.
His team's record is 1-3 (-3.2 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-3. (-2.3 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Wednesday, October 3

American League
A’s (97-65) @ New York (100-62)
Oakland will use its bullpen in this game; not sure who comes in after Hendriks pitches the first inning. Hendriks didn’t allow a run in his last 11 appearances (11.1 IP). Team in his starts: 4-4, 1-1 road Allowed run in 1st inning: 0-8

Severino is 2-0, 2.25 in his last two starts; over is 7-2 in his last nine. Team in his starts: 24-8, 13-1 home
5-inning record: 20-8-4 Allowed run in 1st inning: 9-32

A’s are 7-5 in their last 12 games; they split six games with New York this year- home team won four of those six games. New York is 9-4 in its last 13 games.

A’s are in playoffs for first time since 2014; they won 22 games more than they did LY. New York is in playoffs for third time in last six years; they haven’t been to a World Series since 2009.

______________________________

Teams’ records in first five innings:
Team (road-home-total)- thru 9/18
NYY 34-24-15……44-25-8………78-48
A’s 27-34-12……36-28-14…..63-62


%age of times teams score in first inning (road/home/total- 9/18)
NYY 18-74……..31-76………49
A’s 18-77…..…..23-76…….41




MLB
Weather Report

Wednesday, October 3






MLB

Wednesday, October 3

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Oakland Athletics
Oakland is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Oakland's last 14 games
Oakland is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Oakland's last 8 games on the road
Oakland is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games when playing NY Yankees
Oakland is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing NY Yankees
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oakland's last 6 games when playing NY Yankees
Oakland is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games when playing on the road against NY Yankees
Oakland is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against NY Yankees
New York Yankees
NY Yankees is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games at home
NY Yankees is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Yankees's last 5 games at home
NY Yankees is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
NY Yankees is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Yankees's last 5 games
NY Yankees is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Oakland
NY Yankees is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing Oakland
The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Yankees's last 6 games when playing Oakland
NY Yankees is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games when playing at home against Oakland
NY Yankees is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Oakland