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Thursday's Best Bet
August 2, 2018
Thursday MLB Best Bet
Baltimore Orioles vs. Texas Rangers
Thursdays are known as travel days in MLB, but for some they can be the beginning of a four-game weekend set in a given city. That's the case for all but one of the MLB games on Thursday night as only the Brewers and Dodgers are using today to wrap up a series between them.
The rest are all new matchups, and while one of them is going to receive all the attention and hype (Red Sox/Yankees), it's another AL series between two teams that have long been playing out the stretch that caught my attention.
Odds: Baltimore (+128) vs Texas (-139); Total set at 10.5
The Orioles have long been out of any sort of contention this year and completed a mass exodus this week when they traded numerous guys around the league after Manny Machado was the first two go after the All-Star break. However, as many teams tend to do when an uncertain cloud that hangs over a locker room for months finally leaves (Machado finally getting traded), the team becomes a lot more relaxed and often play much better.
The Orioles are no exception to that case at least lately, as they start this series with the Rangers having won four of their last five and five of their last seven overall. Young guys are getting more opportunities now and seem to be making the most of it.
Texas just sent off Cole Hamels earlier this week, but have been on a nice little run themselves. The Rangers swept Houston IN Houston last weekend (when the Rangers were +180 underdogs or greater in every game), and then followed that up with a series split in a brief two-game set with Arizona.
The Rangers now return home to face another franchise they know is in the same situation as themselves, and when that's the case, motivation on both sides can be difficult to assume/expect. It's what tends to keep me off ML plays in these MLB matchups the rest of the way and this game is no exception. The total however is a different story, as it appears odds makers suspect that motivation, at least from an offensive standpoint won't be a problem for either side with a 10.5 number.
Texas totals can often be a shade inflated because of the potential for winds to kick up there and make games easily go one way or the other, but I'm not sure the number is quite high enough for this game. VegasInsider.com is already showing that it's about a 60/40 split in favor of the 'under', but I'm actually looking the other way here.
To start, both of tonight's starters have been great 'over' bets lately with Baltimore's Andrew Cashner 3-0 O/U in his last three starts, and the Rangers' Yovani Gallardo is 6-1 O/U on the year. Both guys have ERA's above the 4.30 mark and Cashner's 121 hits allowed in 112.1 IP shows that he's fairly consistent about being hit hard too.
Cashner is no stranger to this mound either having pitched for Texas a season ago. That may help with understanding potential winds out there, but this is still a guy that's had his opponents score at least five runs on the Orioles in six straight starts and seven of his last eight. Knowing what a light wind in (projected 7 mph in from left-center) is going to do isn't going to help Cashner and the Orioles much at all if he's still serving meatballs across the heart of the plate, and until I see otherwise, 'over's' will always be on my radar in Cashner starts the rest of the way – his 6-14 O/U record is bound to regress to the mean if his pitching continues as is.
But it takes two to tango and for a total of 10.5 to get surpassed, we are going to need some help from Yovani Gallardo in that area as well.
Baltimore playing well in winning four of their last five is a good sign, but what is more helpful to the 'over' cause here is the fact that the O's put up at least 7 runs in all of those four wins. In fact, in Baltimore's last six wins they've scored 6 or more runs, and considering Gallardo has allowed an average of 5.1/game in his seven starts this year, chances are we see Baltimore threaten that 6+ run total tonight.
Finally, with Texas giving Gallardo 8.6 runs/game in support in those seven starts, don't think that if Baltimore does end up with 6+ tonight it will equate to a win for them. Texas is 3-0-2 O/U the last five times Gallardo has opened up a series, and after scoring two runs or less like they did in Arizona last time out, the Rangers are on a 11-5-1 O/U run. More specifically, after getting shutout like they did in that game with Arizona, Texas is 4-1 O/U this year, with the fewest total runs scored in any of those 'overs' being 11. More than enough for tonight.
So with Baltimore on a 6-1 O/U run on the road, including 4-1 O/U when they are facing a losing team, I'm expecting the scoreboard operator to be plenty busy in Texas tonight as the crooked numbers come in bunches here.
Best Bet: Over 10.5 runs
August 2, 2018
Thursday MLB Best Bet
Baltimore Orioles vs. Texas Rangers
Thursdays are known as travel days in MLB, but for some they can be the beginning of a four-game weekend set in a given city. That's the case for all but one of the MLB games on Thursday night as only the Brewers and Dodgers are using today to wrap up a series between them.
The rest are all new matchups, and while one of them is going to receive all the attention and hype (Red Sox/Yankees), it's another AL series between two teams that have long been playing out the stretch that caught my attention.
Odds: Baltimore (+128) vs Texas (-139); Total set at 10.5
The Orioles have long been out of any sort of contention this year and completed a mass exodus this week when they traded numerous guys around the league after Manny Machado was the first two go after the All-Star break. However, as many teams tend to do when an uncertain cloud that hangs over a locker room for months finally leaves (Machado finally getting traded), the team becomes a lot more relaxed and often play much better.
The Orioles are no exception to that case at least lately, as they start this series with the Rangers having won four of their last five and five of their last seven overall. Young guys are getting more opportunities now and seem to be making the most of it.
Texas just sent off Cole Hamels earlier this week, but have been on a nice little run themselves. The Rangers swept Houston IN Houston last weekend (when the Rangers were +180 underdogs or greater in every game), and then followed that up with a series split in a brief two-game set with Arizona.
The Rangers now return home to face another franchise they know is in the same situation as themselves, and when that's the case, motivation on both sides can be difficult to assume/expect. It's what tends to keep me off ML plays in these MLB matchups the rest of the way and this game is no exception. The total however is a different story, as it appears odds makers suspect that motivation, at least from an offensive standpoint won't be a problem for either side with a 10.5 number.
Texas totals can often be a shade inflated because of the potential for winds to kick up there and make games easily go one way or the other, but I'm not sure the number is quite high enough for this game. VegasInsider.com is already showing that it's about a 60/40 split in favor of the 'under', but I'm actually looking the other way here.
To start, both of tonight's starters have been great 'over' bets lately with Baltimore's Andrew Cashner 3-0 O/U in his last three starts, and the Rangers' Yovani Gallardo is 6-1 O/U on the year. Both guys have ERA's above the 4.30 mark and Cashner's 121 hits allowed in 112.1 IP shows that he's fairly consistent about being hit hard too.
Cashner is no stranger to this mound either having pitched for Texas a season ago. That may help with understanding potential winds out there, but this is still a guy that's had his opponents score at least five runs on the Orioles in six straight starts and seven of his last eight. Knowing what a light wind in (projected 7 mph in from left-center) is going to do isn't going to help Cashner and the Orioles much at all if he's still serving meatballs across the heart of the plate, and until I see otherwise, 'over's' will always be on my radar in Cashner starts the rest of the way – his 6-14 O/U record is bound to regress to the mean if his pitching continues as is.
But it takes two to tango and for a total of 10.5 to get surpassed, we are going to need some help from Yovani Gallardo in that area as well.
Baltimore playing well in winning four of their last five is a good sign, but what is more helpful to the 'over' cause here is the fact that the O's put up at least 7 runs in all of those four wins. In fact, in Baltimore's last six wins they've scored 6 or more runs, and considering Gallardo has allowed an average of 5.1/game in his seven starts this year, chances are we see Baltimore threaten that 6+ run total tonight.
Finally, with Texas giving Gallardo 8.6 runs/game in support in those seven starts, don't think that if Baltimore does end up with 6+ tonight it will equate to a win for them. Texas is 3-0-2 O/U the last five times Gallardo has opened up a series, and after scoring two runs or less like they did in Arizona last time out, the Rangers are on a 11-5-1 O/U run. More specifically, after getting shutout like they did in that game with Arizona, Texas is 4-1 O/U this year, with the fewest total runs scored in any of those 'overs' being 11. More than enough for tonight.
So with Baltimore on a 6-1 O/U run on the road, including 4-1 O/U when they are facing a losing team, I'm expecting the scoreboard operator to be plenty busy in Texas tonight as the crooked numbers come in bunches here.
Best Bet: Over 10.5 runs
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