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MLB Daily Line Drive: Thursday's picks, betting odds and analysis*
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Double-Play Picks
Los Angeles Dodgers at Atlanta Braves (+210, 8.5)*
The Dodgers look to be cruising to their fifth consecutive National League West title - they are the current favorites to win the World Series at 9/4, they hit a home run by acquiring Yu Darvish at the trade deadline and they have won 20 of their last 23 games.
Funny thing is, all three of those losses have come to the same team, a team you wouldn’t expect if you haven’t been playing close attention. That would be the Atlanta Braves.
Atlanta has played the Dodgers tough this year splitting their six meetings thus far and outscoring them 31-23 in the process. However, the Dodgers know this and will have revenge on their minds when they play the rubber match of their three-game set in Atlanta Thursday night.
Speaking of revenge, Dodgers starter Alex Wood will be looking for some in this matchup as well. Wood had allowed just 15 earned runs in his first 14 starts for the Dodgers this season, before the Braves (his former team) jumped all over him for seven earned runs on nine hits overs 4.2 innings.
The Dodgers lefty has struggled in his last two starts, but his overall numbers are outstanding at 12-1 with a 2.38 ERA and a 0.986 WHIP. On the road, he is 4-0 with a 1.56 ERA and a 0.917 WHIP. The Dodgers are also 10-3 against the runline in his last 13 starts.
Atlanta counters with a southpaw of their own in rookie Sean Newcomb. The 24-year-old got his career off to a good start, allowing just four earned runs in his first four starts. Since then, it has been more of a struggle. The Braves have lost his last five starts, while he has pitched to a 7.61 ERA with a WHIP of 1.860.
Expect the Dodgers to exact some revenge Thursday night.
*Pick: Dodgers -1.5 (-145)
Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Angels (-160, 9)*
The Phillies and Angels meet Thursday night in Anaheim for the final game of their interleague series. The Halos dominated the first two games of the series as the Philadelphia offense has struggled against the Angels' mediocre pitching staff.
That mediocre Angels' pitching staff will run its best starter out to the mound tonight. Parker Bridwell may be new on the scene, but he has quickly established himself as the best arm in their rotation. The Angels are 7-1 in his eight career starts and he owns an ERA of 2.83. Bridwell has been especially stingy over his last four outings with a team win/loss of 4-0, an ERA of 1.69, and a WHIP of 0.90.
Philly will send out right-hander Jerad Eickhoff and he has proven over the last few weeks that he is capable of spinning a very good start and holding his opponents down on the score sheet. In four of his last five starts he has held the opposing team to two runs or less and his ERA over those five outings is a very solid 2.89.
Both clubs, of course, feature really bad offenses. The Angels rank last in the American League in almost every offensive category - most notably runs scored (456) and team OPS (.704). The Phillies rank second from the bottom in the National League in runs scored (422) and sit in the bottom five in every other offensive category.
Since this is an interleague matchup, the recent meetings go back a long way. Even so, it's worth noting that Under is 10-1-1 in the last 12 head-to-head meetings (dating back to 2003).
*Pick: Under 9*
Yesterday's Picks: 0-2
Season To Date: 103-94-10
*Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking:* Sonny Gray, New York Yankees (6-5, 3.42 ERA, $-66)
Monday’s non-waiver trade deadline was highlighted by two big moves by two of baseball’s biggest franchises. Yu Darvish to the Dodgers and Sonny Gray to Yankees. The latter makes his first start in pinstripes today and if he can continue the pace he was on in Oakland, the Yankees will be dangerous.
Over his last five starts, Gray owns a 1.39 ERA and a WHIP of .8351.
Gray gets the ball in Cleveland against Corey Kluber in what could be a Game 1 playoff preview and the Yankees are +120 dogs.
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Slumping:* Trevor Cahill, Kansas City Royals (4-3, 4.15 ERA, $525)
In one of the more under-the-radar, deadline moves the Kansas City Royals traded for relievers Brandon Maurer, Ryan Butcher and starter Trevor Cahill. Cahill makes his second start for the Royals and things didn’t go so well the first time. The Red Sox shelled the righty for five runs in four innings.
In his last two trips to the mound (one with Kansas City and one with San Diego), Cahill’s ERA is 11.74 with a WHIP of 2.7392. Not what you want to see in the first week of August heading into a playoff push.
Cahill and Royals are -130 home chalk against the Mariners.
*Thursday's Top Trends*
* The Cincinnati Reds are 8-0 in their last eight meetings with the Pirates in Pittsburgh. +150 today @ Pirates.
* The Baltimore Orioles are 8-0 in Chris Tillman's last eight starts vs. Detroit. -135 today vs. Tigers.
* The Cleveland Indians are 10-1 in their last 11 home games. -155 today vs. Yankees.
* The Tampa Bay Rays are 1-7 in Blake Snell's last eight starts. +140 today @ Astros.
*Weather To Keep An Eye On*
There is a slight chance of rain and thunderstorms in Colorado and Cleveland. The Rockies are hosting the New York Mets and thunderstorms are in the forecast for late in the afternoon and could impact the later innings. Jim Reynolds might be a little loose with the strike zone to get this game done before the storm rolls in. The opposite is the case in Cleveland where first pitch could get pushed because of rain and thunderstorms but they should be able to get this in as the weather should improve as the night progresses.
The forecast is calling for a 30-50 percent chance of rain in Minnesota and a 14-18 mile per hour wind going left to right across the diamond.
The most notable hitters wind today will be at AT&T Park in San Francisco where the Athletics are in town and will be greeted with a 12-14 mile per hour blowing to straight center field. The total is currently sitting at 8.5.
*Ump Of The Day*
Dan Iassogna will be calling balls and strikes today at SunTrust Park and that is interesting because the juggernaut Dodgers are in town. Iassogna is near the top of our Homer Umpire table at 13-4 (76.5 percent) for the season and 10 for the last 11. Adding to that streak, the Braves have won five of the last six games that Iassogna has been behind the plate.
That’s a bit of home bias and the Braves will need every bit of it.
The Braves are massive +210 home dogs against the major league leading Dodgers.
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Double-Play Picks
Los Angeles Dodgers at Atlanta Braves (+210, 8.5)*
The Dodgers look to be cruising to their fifth consecutive National League West title - they are the current favorites to win the World Series at 9/4, they hit a home run by acquiring Yu Darvish at the trade deadline and they have won 20 of their last 23 games.
Funny thing is, all three of those losses have come to the same team, a team you wouldn’t expect if you haven’t been playing close attention. That would be the Atlanta Braves.
Atlanta has played the Dodgers tough this year splitting their six meetings thus far and outscoring them 31-23 in the process. However, the Dodgers know this and will have revenge on their minds when they play the rubber match of their three-game set in Atlanta Thursday night.
Speaking of revenge, Dodgers starter Alex Wood will be looking for some in this matchup as well. Wood had allowed just 15 earned runs in his first 14 starts for the Dodgers this season, before the Braves (his former team) jumped all over him for seven earned runs on nine hits overs 4.2 innings.
The Dodgers lefty has struggled in his last two starts, but his overall numbers are outstanding at 12-1 with a 2.38 ERA and a 0.986 WHIP. On the road, he is 4-0 with a 1.56 ERA and a 0.917 WHIP. The Dodgers are also 10-3 against the runline in his last 13 starts.
Atlanta counters with a southpaw of their own in rookie Sean Newcomb. The 24-year-old got his career off to a good start, allowing just four earned runs in his first four starts. Since then, it has been more of a struggle. The Braves have lost his last five starts, while he has pitched to a 7.61 ERA with a WHIP of 1.860.
Expect the Dodgers to exact some revenge Thursday night.
*Pick: Dodgers -1.5 (-145)
Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Angels (-160, 9)*
The Phillies and Angels meet Thursday night in Anaheim for the final game of their interleague series. The Halos dominated the first two games of the series as the Philadelphia offense has struggled against the Angels' mediocre pitching staff.
That mediocre Angels' pitching staff will run its best starter out to the mound tonight. Parker Bridwell may be new on the scene, but he has quickly established himself as the best arm in their rotation. The Angels are 7-1 in his eight career starts and he owns an ERA of 2.83. Bridwell has been especially stingy over his last four outings with a team win/loss of 4-0, an ERA of 1.69, and a WHIP of 0.90.
Philly will send out right-hander Jerad Eickhoff and he has proven over the last few weeks that he is capable of spinning a very good start and holding his opponents down on the score sheet. In four of his last five starts he has held the opposing team to two runs or less and his ERA over those five outings is a very solid 2.89.
Both clubs, of course, feature really bad offenses. The Angels rank last in the American League in almost every offensive category - most notably runs scored (456) and team OPS (.704). The Phillies rank second from the bottom in the National League in runs scored (422) and sit in the bottom five in every other offensive category.
Since this is an interleague matchup, the recent meetings go back a long way. Even so, it's worth noting that Under is 10-1-1 in the last 12 head-to-head meetings (dating back to 2003).
*Pick: Under 9*
Yesterday's Picks: 0-2
Season To Date: 103-94-10
*Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking:* Sonny Gray, New York Yankees (6-5, 3.42 ERA, $-66)
Monday’s non-waiver trade deadline was highlighted by two big moves by two of baseball’s biggest franchises. Yu Darvish to the Dodgers and Sonny Gray to Yankees. The latter makes his first start in pinstripes today and if he can continue the pace he was on in Oakland, the Yankees will be dangerous.
Over his last five starts, Gray owns a 1.39 ERA and a WHIP of .8351.
Gray gets the ball in Cleveland against Corey Kluber in what could be a Game 1 playoff preview and the Yankees are +120 dogs.
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Slumping:* Trevor Cahill, Kansas City Royals (4-3, 4.15 ERA, $525)
In one of the more under-the-radar, deadline moves the Kansas City Royals traded for relievers Brandon Maurer, Ryan Butcher and starter Trevor Cahill. Cahill makes his second start for the Royals and things didn’t go so well the first time. The Red Sox shelled the righty for five runs in four innings.
In his last two trips to the mound (one with Kansas City and one with San Diego), Cahill’s ERA is 11.74 with a WHIP of 2.7392. Not what you want to see in the first week of August heading into a playoff push.
Cahill and Royals are -130 home chalk against the Mariners.
*Thursday's Top Trends*
* The Cincinnati Reds are 8-0 in their last eight meetings with the Pirates in Pittsburgh. +150 today @ Pirates.
* The Baltimore Orioles are 8-0 in Chris Tillman's last eight starts vs. Detroit. -135 today vs. Tigers.
* The Cleveland Indians are 10-1 in their last 11 home games. -155 today vs. Yankees.
* The Tampa Bay Rays are 1-7 in Blake Snell's last eight starts. +140 today @ Astros.
*Weather To Keep An Eye On*
There is a slight chance of rain and thunderstorms in Colorado and Cleveland. The Rockies are hosting the New York Mets and thunderstorms are in the forecast for late in the afternoon and could impact the later innings. Jim Reynolds might be a little loose with the strike zone to get this game done before the storm rolls in. The opposite is the case in Cleveland where first pitch could get pushed because of rain and thunderstorms but they should be able to get this in as the weather should improve as the night progresses.
The forecast is calling for a 30-50 percent chance of rain in Minnesota and a 14-18 mile per hour wind going left to right across the diamond.
The most notable hitters wind today will be at AT&T Park in San Francisco where the Athletics are in town and will be greeted with a 12-14 mile per hour blowing to straight center field. The total is currently sitting at 8.5.
*Ump Of The Day*
Dan Iassogna will be calling balls and strikes today at SunTrust Park and that is interesting because the juggernaut Dodgers are in town. Iassogna is near the top of our Homer Umpire table at 13-4 (76.5 percent) for the season and 10 for the last 11. Adding to that streak, the Braves have won five of the last six games that Iassogna has been behind the plate.
That’s a bit of home bias and the Braves will need every bit of it.
The Braves are massive +210 home dogs against the major league leading Dodgers.
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