Tweet
Wednesday's Diamond Notes
July 20, 2016
Hottest team: Marlins (8-2 last 10)
The Marlins have pulled off a pair of extra-inning victories in Philadelphia to improve to 4-1 since the All-Star break. Christian Yelich’s late heroics helped maintain a one-game edge on the Mets for the National League’s second Wild Card, so it’s important for the Fish to stay hot since they’ll return to South Florida this weekend to welcome in New York for a crucial three-game set. Yelich has hit safely in eight of his last nine games, including six straight, going 13-for-37 with two homers and 9 RBI in that span. Miami has won five of Wei-Yin Chen’s last six starts and is favored (-130) on the road against Jeremy Hellickson. A matinee against the Phillies is on tap for tomorrow and the Marlins will be looking for at least one more win to clinch consecutive road series victories for the first time since late April. Miami is also looking to clinch three straight series conquests for just the second time all season
Coldest team: Rangers (2-8 last 10, 4-13 last 17)
The Rangers began this dreadful run they’re on when the Yankees broke off a six-run ninth inning on June 29. Didi Gregorius hit a walk-off homer to deliver one of the season’s most improbable losses. Texas had won the first two games in that series, but lost the next day and hasn’t won a series since. The fact the Rangers have played the lowly Twins twice and are in danger of getting swept in Anaheim tells you how bad it has been as the pitching has largely imploded and the defense has regressed over the past few weeks. Houston and Seattle have struggled as well, so Texas’ lead remains healthier than it otherwise would be, but things could get worse since its road trip continues this weekend in Kansas City. The Rangers have dropped 10 of 13 on the road and will look to avoid being swept for the first time since May 16-18 in Oakland, sending Martin Perez (7-6, 4.05) to the mound against Hector Santiago (7-4, 4.27). Perez has allowed 17 runs (12 earned) over his last two starts, so you can understand the L.A. Angels (-138) being favored to win for the 10th time in 12 contests.
Hottest pitcher: Carlos Carrasco (6-3, 2.49 ERA)
Carrasco is still under .500 in his six-year career, but definitely looks like the elite pitcher scouts felt he’d turn into when he was plucked out of Venezuela as a 16-year-old. The Tribe has won five of his last six starts and is 10-3 when Carrasco has taken the mound this season. He’s exhibited great control and the ability to get a strikeout or a double play when he needs it. The Royals have hit the ball hard against him this season, but Carrasco is 6-5 with a 3.63 ERA against Kansas City over his career, which includes a 5-2 mark and 3.02 ERA at Kauffman Stadium. The Indians are favored (-135) to win the rubber match of this three-game set against the Royals, who counter with Ian Kennedy (6-7, 3.86).
Coldest pitcher: Chris Archer (4-13, 4.68 ERA)
Archer’s stock has never been lower. He’s already matched his career-high in losses set in 2015. His ERA is higher than it ended in his rookie year and he’s already given up more home runs (20) through the first four months of 2016 than he had in any of his previous four seasons. Considering he’ll be pitching at Denver’s Coors Field for the first time, Archer’s propensity for surrendering the long ball should be disconcerting. He’s given up home runs in 10 of his last 13 starts, which includes eight of 10 on the road. Tampa Bay has failed to win any of his last seven starts and is 1-10 in his last 11. Colorado (-115) is a slight favorite against the Rays despite losing last night’s game in blowout fashion. Lefty Jorge De La Rosa (6-6, 5.50) will pitch for the Rockies. Only Mark Reynolds and Brandon Barnes have faced Archer in the majors.
Biggest UNDER run: Tigers (8-1 last nine)
Detroit managed a single hit off Tommy Milone entering last night's ninth inning and saw James McCann and Jose Iglesias strike out with the bases loaded in a 6-2 loss. As a result, the under struck again as the Tigers were held to four runs or fewer for the 11th time in 12 games. Miguel Cabrera is on a 4-for-25 run at the plate, while Victor Martinez is on a 3-for-33 streak. Despite those struggles, the Tigers are heavily favored as they (-174) send Justin Verlander (9-6, 3.91) to the mound for this matinee series finale against Minnesota, who will count on Ervin Santana (3-8, 4.12) coming off a wrist ailment.
Biggest OVER run: Dodgers (7-2 last nine road games)
Chase Utley got the party started in DC by hitting the third pitch he saw from rookie Reynaldo Lopez out of Nationals Park, sparking a three-run first inning in an 8-4 win. L.A.'s victorious return to the East Coast was fueled by its bats as it continues a run of high-scoring road games by banging out 13 hits. Every starter besides pitcher Scott Kazmir got a hit. The Dodgers have actually banged out double-digit hit totals in every game they've played since the All-Star break, running their streak of doing so to five games. Washington lefty Gio Gonzalez (5-8, 4.70) will look to slow the Dodgers down and has won two of his last three starts after a dreadful two-month run. L.A. will turn to Bud Norris (5-7, 4.17) for his fourth start since it traded for him. Two of the three starts he's made for the Dodgers have gone over the posted total.
Matchup to watch: Giants at Red Sox
Despite a four-game losing coming out of the break, San Francisco still owns the best record in baseball. Meanwhile, Boston has a chance to pass Baltimore for first place in the AL East with a victory and additional help from the Yankees. The Red Sox will break out their newest toy as lefty Drew Pomeranz (8-7, 2.47) makes his first start since being acquired from San Diego. The All-Star has allowed one run over his last three starts, a span of 21 innings, and will be seeing the Giants for the fourth time this season, owning an 0-2 mark despite a 2.60 ERA due to a lack of run support. Matt Cain (1-5, 5.34) is making his first start since June 13 and only his second appearance since May 27 due to hamstring trouble, so this will be a big night for San Francisco as it hopes to rely on him in the rotation going forward. The Giants were shut out for only the fifth time this season last night and are 2-2 coming off games in which they’ve been blanked. Boston (-195) is a heavy favorite despite an unsettled bullpen situation since Koji Uehara left yesterday’s game with a pectoral injury, likely leaving the closer’s role in the hands of the recently acquired Brad Ziegler, who recorded 18 saves in Arizona but has been used as a set-up guy since arriving earlier this month.
Betcha didn’t know: St. Louis should be aware that the Padres are unbeaten in doubleheaders this season, sweeping a pair from the Cubs on May 11. Keep that in mind since they were heavy underdogs that day too, cashing +220 in the opener and +180 in the nightcap. More than two months later, Rea will be starting another twinbill opener, but that's where the similarities end. Pomeranz started the second game and won a 1-0 pitcher's duel over John Lackey and is now in Boston. Fernando Rodney saved both wins in Chicago and finds himself in Miami, traded there June 30. Ex-Marlins starter Paul Clemens (1-0, 4.73) will take the ball for the second game against the Cardinals, following Rea and making his first start for San Diego after three relief appearances since being claimed off waivers late last month. Clemens was pitching for New Orleans, Miami's Triple-A affiliate, on May 11. Rotation mainstays Carlos Martinez and Jaime Garcia will pitch for the Cards.
Biggest public favorite: Blue Jays (-160) at Diamondbacks
Biggest public underdog: Phillies (+110) vs. Marlins
Biggest line move: Yankees (-130 to -160) vs. Orioles
July 20, 2016
Hottest team: Marlins (8-2 last 10)
The Marlins have pulled off a pair of extra-inning victories in Philadelphia to improve to 4-1 since the All-Star break. Christian Yelich’s late heroics helped maintain a one-game edge on the Mets for the National League’s second Wild Card, so it’s important for the Fish to stay hot since they’ll return to South Florida this weekend to welcome in New York for a crucial three-game set. Yelich has hit safely in eight of his last nine games, including six straight, going 13-for-37 with two homers and 9 RBI in that span. Miami has won five of Wei-Yin Chen’s last six starts and is favored (-130) on the road against Jeremy Hellickson. A matinee against the Phillies is on tap for tomorrow and the Marlins will be looking for at least one more win to clinch consecutive road series victories for the first time since late April. Miami is also looking to clinch three straight series conquests for just the second time all season
Coldest team: Rangers (2-8 last 10, 4-13 last 17)
The Rangers began this dreadful run they’re on when the Yankees broke off a six-run ninth inning on June 29. Didi Gregorius hit a walk-off homer to deliver one of the season’s most improbable losses. Texas had won the first two games in that series, but lost the next day and hasn’t won a series since. The fact the Rangers have played the lowly Twins twice and are in danger of getting swept in Anaheim tells you how bad it has been as the pitching has largely imploded and the defense has regressed over the past few weeks. Houston and Seattle have struggled as well, so Texas’ lead remains healthier than it otherwise would be, but things could get worse since its road trip continues this weekend in Kansas City. The Rangers have dropped 10 of 13 on the road and will look to avoid being swept for the first time since May 16-18 in Oakland, sending Martin Perez (7-6, 4.05) to the mound against Hector Santiago (7-4, 4.27). Perez has allowed 17 runs (12 earned) over his last two starts, so you can understand the L.A. Angels (-138) being favored to win for the 10th time in 12 contests.
Hottest pitcher: Carlos Carrasco (6-3, 2.49 ERA)
Carrasco is still under .500 in his six-year career, but definitely looks like the elite pitcher scouts felt he’d turn into when he was plucked out of Venezuela as a 16-year-old. The Tribe has won five of his last six starts and is 10-3 when Carrasco has taken the mound this season. He’s exhibited great control and the ability to get a strikeout or a double play when he needs it. The Royals have hit the ball hard against him this season, but Carrasco is 6-5 with a 3.63 ERA against Kansas City over his career, which includes a 5-2 mark and 3.02 ERA at Kauffman Stadium. The Indians are favored (-135) to win the rubber match of this three-game set against the Royals, who counter with Ian Kennedy (6-7, 3.86).
Coldest pitcher: Chris Archer (4-13, 4.68 ERA)
Archer’s stock has never been lower. He’s already matched his career-high in losses set in 2015. His ERA is higher than it ended in his rookie year and he’s already given up more home runs (20) through the first four months of 2016 than he had in any of his previous four seasons. Considering he’ll be pitching at Denver’s Coors Field for the first time, Archer’s propensity for surrendering the long ball should be disconcerting. He’s given up home runs in 10 of his last 13 starts, which includes eight of 10 on the road. Tampa Bay has failed to win any of his last seven starts and is 1-10 in his last 11. Colorado (-115) is a slight favorite against the Rays despite losing last night’s game in blowout fashion. Lefty Jorge De La Rosa (6-6, 5.50) will pitch for the Rockies. Only Mark Reynolds and Brandon Barnes have faced Archer in the majors.
Biggest UNDER run: Tigers (8-1 last nine)
Detroit managed a single hit off Tommy Milone entering last night's ninth inning and saw James McCann and Jose Iglesias strike out with the bases loaded in a 6-2 loss. As a result, the under struck again as the Tigers were held to four runs or fewer for the 11th time in 12 games. Miguel Cabrera is on a 4-for-25 run at the plate, while Victor Martinez is on a 3-for-33 streak. Despite those struggles, the Tigers are heavily favored as they (-174) send Justin Verlander (9-6, 3.91) to the mound for this matinee series finale against Minnesota, who will count on Ervin Santana (3-8, 4.12) coming off a wrist ailment.
Biggest OVER run: Dodgers (7-2 last nine road games)
Chase Utley got the party started in DC by hitting the third pitch he saw from rookie Reynaldo Lopez out of Nationals Park, sparking a three-run first inning in an 8-4 win. L.A.'s victorious return to the East Coast was fueled by its bats as it continues a run of high-scoring road games by banging out 13 hits. Every starter besides pitcher Scott Kazmir got a hit. The Dodgers have actually banged out double-digit hit totals in every game they've played since the All-Star break, running their streak of doing so to five games. Washington lefty Gio Gonzalez (5-8, 4.70) will look to slow the Dodgers down and has won two of his last three starts after a dreadful two-month run. L.A. will turn to Bud Norris (5-7, 4.17) for his fourth start since it traded for him. Two of the three starts he's made for the Dodgers have gone over the posted total.
Matchup to watch: Giants at Red Sox
Despite a four-game losing coming out of the break, San Francisco still owns the best record in baseball. Meanwhile, Boston has a chance to pass Baltimore for first place in the AL East with a victory and additional help from the Yankees. The Red Sox will break out their newest toy as lefty Drew Pomeranz (8-7, 2.47) makes his first start since being acquired from San Diego. The All-Star has allowed one run over his last three starts, a span of 21 innings, and will be seeing the Giants for the fourth time this season, owning an 0-2 mark despite a 2.60 ERA due to a lack of run support. Matt Cain (1-5, 5.34) is making his first start since June 13 and only his second appearance since May 27 due to hamstring trouble, so this will be a big night for San Francisco as it hopes to rely on him in the rotation going forward. The Giants were shut out for only the fifth time this season last night and are 2-2 coming off games in which they’ve been blanked. Boston (-195) is a heavy favorite despite an unsettled bullpen situation since Koji Uehara left yesterday’s game with a pectoral injury, likely leaving the closer’s role in the hands of the recently acquired Brad Ziegler, who recorded 18 saves in Arizona but has been used as a set-up guy since arriving earlier this month.
Betcha didn’t know: St. Louis should be aware that the Padres are unbeaten in doubleheaders this season, sweeping a pair from the Cubs on May 11. Keep that in mind since they were heavy underdogs that day too, cashing +220 in the opener and +180 in the nightcap. More than two months later, Rea will be starting another twinbill opener, but that's where the similarities end. Pomeranz started the second game and won a 1-0 pitcher's duel over John Lackey and is now in Boston. Fernando Rodney saved both wins in Chicago and finds himself in Miami, traded there June 30. Ex-Marlins starter Paul Clemens (1-0, 4.73) will take the ball for the second game against the Cardinals, following Rea and making his first start for San Diego after three relief appearances since being claimed off waivers late last month. Clemens was pitching for New Orleans, Miami's Triple-A affiliate, on May 11. Rotation mainstays Carlos Martinez and Jaime Garcia will pitch for the Cards.
Biggest public favorite: Blue Jays (-160) at Diamondbacks
Biggest public underdog: Phillies (+110) vs. Marlins
Biggest line move: Yankees (-130 to -160) vs. Orioles
Comment