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AL Value Starters
June 13, 2016
Most of the elite starting pitchers reside in the National League as only three of MLB’s top 17 leaders in FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) are AL starters at this point in the 2016 season. Even so, it still costs a premium to back well established AL starters such as Corey Kluber, Chris Sale, Justin Verlander, among others.
Here are some names that won’t offer the same chance of a dominant outing but can often be found with much more reasonable pricing and could be worth a look in many future matchups.
Matt Shoemaker (Los Angeles Angels): Pitching for the struggling Angels will keep Matt Shoemaker in the underdog role in many matchups but the 29-year old right-hander has pitched much better than his 3-7 record indicates. Shoemaker has been on a particularly strong run since mid-May, actually posting some of the best numbers in the AL in the past month. Shoemaker has pitched at least seven innings in five consecutive starts while posting 48 strikeouts in that span and delivering four quality starts. He owns a 5:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio on the season and his FIP is more than a run lower than his ERA. Opportunities in late June against Oakland and Houston could be favorable for Shoemaker even with an erratic offense providing support behind him.
C.C. Sabathia (New York Yankees): Many felt C.C. Sabathia’s career might be over when he stepped away from the team late last season but after a mediocre April in 2016 Sabathia has been on a roll in recent weeks and starting to look like the All Star starter of past seasons. His 2.28 ERA is a bit lower than will be sustainable but Sabathia has not allowed more than three runs in any of his 10 starts this season. His strikeout rate isn’t close to his best seasons and he is allowing frequent walks but he has allowed just two home runs in nearly 60 innings, no small feat for a Yankees pitcher. Sabathia has delivered great recent outings against formidable offensive teams including the Blue Jays, Orioles, and Tigers and he has a strong bullpen to help him pull out wins even with a limited offense for New York.
Collin McHugh (Houston Astros): With a 5-5 record and a 5.22 ERA McHugh is among the many Astros that has disappointed this season but his strikeout rate continues to climb back up in recent starts and strong outings may be ahead for the curveball artist that has been a bit streaky the past two seasons. McHugh has posted 37 strikeouts over his last five starts and while he has had few dominant outings he has gone nine straight starts without allowing more than four runs. His numbers have been hurt by pitching in some tough venues with recent road starts at Boston, Arizona, and Texas and his control has been excellent with one or zero walks allowed in nine of his 13 starts this season. The Astros may be on the verge of making a run to climb back into the postseason race and McHugh could offer some value in the coming weeks with his marginal conventional numbers.
Sean Manaea (Oakland Athletics): Young starters with potential are frequently overvalued when they get off to hot starts and AL starters like Michael Fulmer, Matt Andriese, and Danny Duffy are starting to get a bit overvalued. From a value perspective the rocky first three starts Sean Manaea are a great benefit as his conventional numbers still look pretty rough despite clearly turning a corner on the mound. The 24-year old rookie allowed 16 runs in his first 13 innings of work but in five starts since his numbers have improved dramatically. His strikeout numbers are climbing and he has allowed just 30 hits in his last five starts spanning nearly 33 innings. Take away one brutal start at Fenway Park vs. the league’s best offense and his numbers look much more reasonable and while Oakland doesn’t look like a playoff contender, they have a similar record to division foes Houston and Los Angeles despite being valued like one of the worst teams in the AL. Pitching at the Coliseum should also allow for some favorable situations for the young left-hander.
Colby Lewis (Texas Rangers): The Rangers have the best record in the American League and supporting Colby Lewis won’t cost the premium that backing Cole Hamels, Yu Darvish, or even Martin Perez will. Lewis owns a FIP that is more than a run higher than his ERA but his numbers have been improving since the first month of the season and the bottom line is that he is now 21-7 in his last 28 decisions since May of last season. His 3.45 FIP is the 12th best in the AL over the last month and given how well the Rangers are playing Lewis will be worth a look in future matchups as the 36-year old continues to provide solid starts behind a team that has been dominant at home and shown improvement in the bullpen. Texas has had a knack for winning close games this season and Lewis could continue a charmed late career run.
Trevor Bauer (Cleveland Indians): The rotation for the Indians features high end talent but backing Corey Kluber or Danny Salazar will be expensive even with some erratic results for those strikeout artists. Bauer isn’t as dazzling but he has allowed three or fewer runs in eight of his nine starts since moving into the rotation in late April. Bauer is still producing a decent strikeout rate and he has for the most part kept the ball in the ballpark with only six home runs allowed in over 68 innings of work. Bauer is getting a much greater rate of ground balls than he did the past two seasons and while his strikeout numbers are a bit less impressive than were projected early in his career, he has also lowered his walk rate and he has become a more reliable and consistent starter on a first place team.
June 13, 2016
Most of the elite starting pitchers reside in the National League as only three of MLB’s top 17 leaders in FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) are AL starters at this point in the 2016 season. Even so, it still costs a premium to back well established AL starters such as Corey Kluber, Chris Sale, Justin Verlander, among others.
Here are some names that won’t offer the same chance of a dominant outing but can often be found with much more reasonable pricing and could be worth a look in many future matchups.
Matt Shoemaker (Los Angeles Angels): Pitching for the struggling Angels will keep Matt Shoemaker in the underdog role in many matchups but the 29-year old right-hander has pitched much better than his 3-7 record indicates. Shoemaker has been on a particularly strong run since mid-May, actually posting some of the best numbers in the AL in the past month. Shoemaker has pitched at least seven innings in five consecutive starts while posting 48 strikeouts in that span and delivering four quality starts. He owns a 5:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio on the season and his FIP is more than a run lower than his ERA. Opportunities in late June against Oakland and Houston could be favorable for Shoemaker even with an erratic offense providing support behind him.
C.C. Sabathia (New York Yankees): Many felt C.C. Sabathia’s career might be over when he stepped away from the team late last season but after a mediocre April in 2016 Sabathia has been on a roll in recent weeks and starting to look like the All Star starter of past seasons. His 2.28 ERA is a bit lower than will be sustainable but Sabathia has not allowed more than three runs in any of his 10 starts this season. His strikeout rate isn’t close to his best seasons and he is allowing frequent walks but he has allowed just two home runs in nearly 60 innings, no small feat for a Yankees pitcher. Sabathia has delivered great recent outings against formidable offensive teams including the Blue Jays, Orioles, and Tigers and he has a strong bullpen to help him pull out wins even with a limited offense for New York.
Collin McHugh (Houston Astros): With a 5-5 record and a 5.22 ERA McHugh is among the many Astros that has disappointed this season but his strikeout rate continues to climb back up in recent starts and strong outings may be ahead for the curveball artist that has been a bit streaky the past two seasons. McHugh has posted 37 strikeouts over his last five starts and while he has had few dominant outings he has gone nine straight starts without allowing more than four runs. His numbers have been hurt by pitching in some tough venues with recent road starts at Boston, Arizona, and Texas and his control has been excellent with one or zero walks allowed in nine of his 13 starts this season. The Astros may be on the verge of making a run to climb back into the postseason race and McHugh could offer some value in the coming weeks with his marginal conventional numbers.
Sean Manaea (Oakland Athletics): Young starters with potential are frequently overvalued when they get off to hot starts and AL starters like Michael Fulmer, Matt Andriese, and Danny Duffy are starting to get a bit overvalued. From a value perspective the rocky first three starts Sean Manaea are a great benefit as his conventional numbers still look pretty rough despite clearly turning a corner on the mound. The 24-year old rookie allowed 16 runs in his first 13 innings of work but in five starts since his numbers have improved dramatically. His strikeout numbers are climbing and he has allowed just 30 hits in his last five starts spanning nearly 33 innings. Take away one brutal start at Fenway Park vs. the league’s best offense and his numbers look much more reasonable and while Oakland doesn’t look like a playoff contender, they have a similar record to division foes Houston and Los Angeles despite being valued like one of the worst teams in the AL. Pitching at the Coliseum should also allow for some favorable situations for the young left-hander.
Colby Lewis (Texas Rangers): The Rangers have the best record in the American League and supporting Colby Lewis won’t cost the premium that backing Cole Hamels, Yu Darvish, or even Martin Perez will. Lewis owns a FIP that is more than a run higher than his ERA but his numbers have been improving since the first month of the season and the bottom line is that he is now 21-7 in his last 28 decisions since May of last season. His 3.45 FIP is the 12th best in the AL over the last month and given how well the Rangers are playing Lewis will be worth a look in future matchups as the 36-year old continues to provide solid starts behind a team that has been dominant at home and shown improvement in the bullpen. Texas has had a knack for winning close games this season and Lewis could continue a charmed late career run.
Trevor Bauer (Cleveland Indians): The rotation for the Indians features high end talent but backing Corey Kluber or Danny Salazar will be expensive even with some erratic results for those strikeout artists. Bauer isn’t as dazzling but he has allowed three or fewer runs in eight of his nine starts since moving into the rotation in late April. Bauer is still producing a decent strikeout rate and he has for the most part kept the ball in the ballpark with only six home runs allowed in over 68 innings of work. Bauer is getting a much greater rate of ground balls than he did the past two seasons and while his strikeout numbers are a bit less impressive than were projected early in his career, he has also lowered his walk rate and he has become a more reliable and consistent starter on a first place team.
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