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Overachieving NL Pitchers
April 28, 2016
Starting pitching is the biggest component of MLB handicapping and as the first month of the season winds down there are some surprising pitchers off to great starts. Here are a few National League starters with great results through the first few weeks that may be worth fading as their valuation grows.
Jason Hammel - Chicago Cubs: With Jake Arrieta’s continued dominance and veterans Jon Lester and John Lackey behind him the Cubs rotation looks formidable. There are some questions on the backend but so far this season, Jason Hammel has delivered great results for the Cubs with a 3-0 record and a 0.75 ERA that is among the best marks in baseball. The 33-year old has bounced around through four organizations while never winning more than 10 games in a season and it looks unlikely that 2016 will be his breakthrough season.
Hammel has been fortunate in the early going stranding over 92 percent of base runners and his xFIP is more than 4 times higher than his ERA. Hammel has walked nine batters in 24 innings of work and he won’t get to face a Reds lineup that he has 12 scoreless innings against all season. On a loaded Cubs team, Hammel can continue to provide useful innings but with Chicago’s great record, Hammel is likely to face favorite valuation that he won’t deserve.
Gio Gonzalez - Washington Nationals: In his first season with the Nationals in 2012, Gonzalez won 21 games with a 2.89 ERA to finish 3rd in the Cy Young voting. He has just 33 wins in the three-plus seasons since producing rather average results that have worsened slightly each season. Gonzalez was never suspended, but he was linked to the Biogenesis documents and now on the wrong side of 30 it seems unlikely that Gonzalez will ever reemerge as a frontline starter.
Washington and Gonzalez have had a great April, but they have faced an incredibly weak schedule and the four starts for Gonzalez have come against the Braves, Phillies, and Twins with three of those four starts at home. Gonzalez has 25 strikeouts in just over 25 innings of work, but he has benefitted from a .243 BABIP at this point in the season and it feels like an unsustainable pace for the left-hander who will face much tougher lineups in the coming weeks.
Jimmy Nelson - Milwaukee Brewers: The Brewers aren’t expected to hold up well in the loaded NL Central, but Nelson has been a bright spot in the 8-12 start through 20 games. Nelson won 11 games last season in making 30 starts for a struggling team and in five outings in 2016 he owns solid numbers with a 3.16 ERA with 25 strikeouts. He is walking more than four batters per nine innings and he owns a FIP of 5.35, more than two runs higher than his ERA at this point in the season. Nelson has allowed at least two runs in every start as he has rarely been dominant and he has already allowed six home runs.
Nelson is just 26 and he may continue to be the best option in the Milwaukee rotation, but he will likely earn the highest line valuation of the Milwaukee starters as well. With a manageable schedule in the month of May, he may continue to be viable for a few more weeks but don’t expect to see Nelson among the NL pitching leaders by season’s end.
Ross Stripling - Los Angeles Dodgers: With the many early season injuries on the Los Angeles pitching staff, Stripling has had a chance to join the rotation this and he has made the most of it. The 26-year old right-hander didn’t enter the season as even one of the top 10 prospects for the club and he has never even pitched at the AAA level after mediocre results moving up from A to AA in the middle of last season. Stripling might never have even made the big leagues if not for all the holes in the rotation and he incredibly got 22 outs in his major league debut without allowing a hit. He was pulled from the game and no-hitter was lost by the bullpen and predictably the results have been less impressive in this three starts since.
Since his great debut start, Stripling has allowed 19 hits in 15 innings and he has allowed more than four walks per nine innings. He doesn’t get a great deal of ground balls as it is surprising that he has only allowed one home run but making three of his four starts at Dodger Stadium and AT&T Park helps the cause. Hyun-Jin Ryu and Michael Bolsinger are poised to return to the club in the coming weeks with Brandon McCarthy a possibility to be back mid-summer as well as Stripling isn’t likely to keep this position much longer regardless of the results.
April 28, 2016
Starting pitching is the biggest component of MLB handicapping and as the first month of the season winds down there are some surprising pitchers off to great starts. Here are a few National League starters with great results through the first few weeks that may be worth fading as their valuation grows.
Jason Hammel - Chicago Cubs: With Jake Arrieta’s continued dominance and veterans Jon Lester and John Lackey behind him the Cubs rotation looks formidable. There are some questions on the backend but so far this season, Jason Hammel has delivered great results for the Cubs with a 3-0 record and a 0.75 ERA that is among the best marks in baseball. The 33-year old has bounced around through four organizations while never winning more than 10 games in a season and it looks unlikely that 2016 will be his breakthrough season.
Hammel has been fortunate in the early going stranding over 92 percent of base runners and his xFIP is more than 4 times higher than his ERA. Hammel has walked nine batters in 24 innings of work and he won’t get to face a Reds lineup that he has 12 scoreless innings against all season. On a loaded Cubs team, Hammel can continue to provide useful innings but with Chicago’s great record, Hammel is likely to face favorite valuation that he won’t deserve.
Gio Gonzalez - Washington Nationals: In his first season with the Nationals in 2012, Gonzalez won 21 games with a 2.89 ERA to finish 3rd in the Cy Young voting. He has just 33 wins in the three-plus seasons since producing rather average results that have worsened slightly each season. Gonzalez was never suspended, but he was linked to the Biogenesis documents and now on the wrong side of 30 it seems unlikely that Gonzalez will ever reemerge as a frontline starter.
Washington and Gonzalez have had a great April, but they have faced an incredibly weak schedule and the four starts for Gonzalez have come against the Braves, Phillies, and Twins with three of those four starts at home. Gonzalez has 25 strikeouts in just over 25 innings of work, but he has benefitted from a .243 BABIP at this point in the season and it feels like an unsustainable pace for the left-hander who will face much tougher lineups in the coming weeks.
Jimmy Nelson - Milwaukee Brewers: The Brewers aren’t expected to hold up well in the loaded NL Central, but Nelson has been a bright spot in the 8-12 start through 20 games. Nelson won 11 games last season in making 30 starts for a struggling team and in five outings in 2016 he owns solid numbers with a 3.16 ERA with 25 strikeouts. He is walking more than four batters per nine innings and he owns a FIP of 5.35, more than two runs higher than his ERA at this point in the season. Nelson has allowed at least two runs in every start as he has rarely been dominant and he has already allowed six home runs.
Nelson is just 26 and he may continue to be the best option in the Milwaukee rotation, but he will likely earn the highest line valuation of the Milwaukee starters as well. With a manageable schedule in the month of May, he may continue to be viable for a few more weeks but don’t expect to see Nelson among the NL pitching leaders by season’s end.
Ross Stripling - Los Angeles Dodgers: With the many early season injuries on the Los Angeles pitching staff, Stripling has had a chance to join the rotation this and he has made the most of it. The 26-year old right-hander didn’t enter the season as even one of the top 10 prospects for the club and he has never even pitched at the AAA level after mediocre results moving up from A to AA in the middle of last season. Stripling might never have even made the big leagues if not for all the holes in the rotation and he incredibly got 22 outs in his major league debut without allowing a hit. He was pulled from the game and no-hitter was lost by the bullpen and predictably the results have been less impressive in this three starts since.
Since his great debut start, Stripling has allowed 19 hits in 15 innings and he has allowed more than four walks per nine innings. He doesn’t get a great deal of ground balls as it is surprising that he has only allowed one home run but making three of his four starts at Dodger Stadium and AT&T Park helps the cause. Hyun-Jin Ryu and Michael Bolsinger are poised to return to the club in the coming weeks with Brandon McCarthy a possibility to be back mid-summer as well as Stripling isn’t likely to keep this position much longer regardless of the results.
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