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Capping the Padres' plans and the biggest MLB betting movers and shakers
After dumping an exorbitant amount of both money and resources this past offseason in an effort to upgrade their roster for a playoff push in 2015, it came as little surprise on Monday to learn that the struggling 32-33 San Diego Padres had handed manager Bud Black his walking papers.
Black, who was with the club since 2007, was on thin ice after last year’s 77-85 campaign and clearly the new management team wasn’t about to stick with a guy who was underachieving so significantly with a revamped roster that hit the board at 20/1 to win the World Series on Opening Day.
The big question now for the Padres is at what point does this team definitively answer the age-old question: Are we buyers or sellers? The MLB trade deadline is just over a month away and it’s hard to believe that San Diego’s front office will want to raise the white flag after such a headline-grabbing offseason.
The upside here is that the Padres are just six games out of first place in the National League West, so two good weeks of baseball could have this team right back in the hunt. The downside is that the two clubs ahead of San Diego - Los Angeles and San Francisco - remain steady and consistent, exactly as both were intended to be back in late March.
MOVERS & SHAKERS
Let’s take an in-depth look at the 10 teams who have experienced the biggest swings in World Series price at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook since May 18:
Heating up
Texas Rangers (500/1 to 30/1): Considered by many to contend with the upstart Houston Astros for last place in the American League West, the Rangers have stunned baseball insiders and fans alike through the first 63 games of the season by taking advantage of a surprisingly weak division to reside 2.5 games out of first place.
The Rangers won 13 of 17 contests beginning May 20 at Boston thanks, in large part, to the awakening of Prince Fielder, who is currently hitting an astounding .343 while leading the club in home runs, RBIs, on base percentage and hits. As of the current moment, the only question for this squad is what to do at third base once Adrian Beltre is ready to return, as highly-touted prospect Joey Gallo is mashing at a .300 clip with four jacks through his first 11 big league games.
Pittsburgh Pirates (30/1 to 12/1): It was only a matter of time before former MVP Andrew McCutchen and company went streaking, as the Pirates currently boast a staggering plus-45 run differential, good for fourth in Major League Baseball.
This squad will have its hands full trying to knock off the white-hot St. Louis Cardinals (six games back despite a 35-27 record), but the Pittsburgh rotation currently owns a collective ERA of just 2.65 (second in MLB) thanks to Cy Young candidate Gerrit Cole (10-2, 1.71 ERA). Take note that 10 of the Pirates’ next 13 games come against the likes of the White Sox, Reds and Braves, who are currently a combined 14 games under .500.
San Francisco Giants (25/1 to 12/1): The defending champs scratched back into contention following a scorching month of May in which the team posted a 21-9 record with an astounding eight shutouts and a dramatic climb from 29th in MLB in runs scored to 16th. But the good times have come to an abrupt halt thanks to an eight-game home losing streak, shaky starting pitching and an untimely wrist injury to right fielder Hunter Pence.
Recently it was noted that San Francisco General Manger Brian Sabean was in Chicago over the weekend scouting Reds soon-to-be free agent pitchers Johnny Cueto and Mike Leake, so a possible “We’re in it to win it” trade could be on the horizon. Still, it’s somewhat hard to envision this team making a deep postseason run with a rotation that features Tim Hudson, Ryan Vogelsong, Chris Heston and Tim Lincecum.
Tampa Bay Rays (40/1 to 20/1): Like every year at this time, nobody gave the Rays a puncher’s chance at making any noise in 2015, yet the team sits tied for the lead in the AL East on June 15 (35-29) with a run differential of plus-14.
Tampa Bay has won nine of its last 12 outings and has an emerging star in pitcher Chris Archer (7-4, 2.00 ERA), who has led the team’s rotation to a lights out ERA of 3.29 (fourth in MLB). Bettors should be weary of the streaking Blue Jays (winners of 11 straight), but we’ve seen that movie before and it doesn’t end well for the good folks of Toronto.
Cleveland Indians (40/1 to 30/1): Be very, very careful about how you approach the Indians, as the club is currently trapped in “front office purgatory,” which is a blunt way of saying they aren’t sure whether they will be buyers or sellers come the late July trade deadline.
Predicted by many to contend for the pennant, the left side of Cleveland’s infield has been a disaster (also as predicted by many) and the starting rotation has been slow out of the gates. But if Kluber, Carrasco & Co. can catch fire and the defense can hold down the fort in a more respectable fashion (SS prodigy Francisco Lindor was just called up), this team may be able to fight its way back into contention, as the Indians are just 6.5 games out of first place at the moment despite a 29-33 record.
Cooling down
Seattle Mariners (20/1 to 50/1): The good news for Mariners fans is that despite a horrific start to what was supposed to be a championship-contending season, Seattle is just 7.5 games out of first in the AL West thanks to an Astros team that has gone 2-8 over its last 10 games.
The bad news - and there’s plenty - is that the bullpen is a mess (3.65 ERA, 19th in MLB), the team is a shockingly bad minus-45 in run differential (fifth-worst in MLB) and the club has been shutout in three of its last four outings. The key note to monitor here is the minus-45 run differential, which based on Pythagorean win/loss expectations has the Mariners as a 25-win team at the moment instead of their current record of 28-35, meaning this organization is likely to get worse before it gets better.
Miami Marlins (60/1 to 100/1): Help is on the way in the form of phenom pitcher Jose Fernandez, but it may be too little too late for a Marlins team that is seven games out of first, has already fired one manager this season and is minus-22 in run differential. A fire sale is likely on the horizon if the team continues to feature 34-year-old Dan Haren and his 3.22 ERA as its ace pitcher.
Boston Red Sox (30/1 to 50/1): One good week is all it would take for the Red Sox to climb back into contention in the AL East (eight games back), but even that looks to be too much for a floundering organization led by David Ortiz’s .229 batting average and high-priced free agent acquisition Pablo Sandoval’s unacceptable .389 slugging percentage.
The Red Sox are getting torched in every way imaginable, which has been highlighted by an AL-worst minus-60 run differential. Don’t be surprised if the Red Sox become marquee sellers at the trade deadline.
Cincinnati Reds (100/1 to 300/1): The Reds are 13 games out in the toughest division in baseball and currently boast just one player with a .300 batting average in second baseman Brandon Phillips (.302).
Ranking 16th or worse in MLB in scoring, starting pitching ERA and bullpen ERA provides little hope that this club will turn things around before the July trade deadline, which means that pitchers Cueto and Leake could be on their way out of town in a hurry.
Detroit Tigers (9/1 to 14/1): The Tigers have ripped off five wins over their last seven games after having dropped 11 of 13, so a three-game deficit between them and AL Central-leading Kansas City isn’t exactly a doomsday scenario.
Former Cy Young winner Justin Verlander went five strong innings in his season debut on June 13, but the Tigers desperately need a left-handed bat in the lineup to provide some pop until the switch-hitting Victor Martinez (knee) returns from his rehab assignment.
RESILIENCY
When it comes to bouncing back after a loss, here are the best and the worst Major League Baseball has to offer:
St. Louis Cardinals: 14-7 (.667)
Chicago Cubs: 18-9 (.667)
Los Angeles Dodgers: 17-9 (.654)
Cleveland Indians: 19-13 (.594)
Texas Rangers: 17-12 (.586)
Philadelphia Phillies: 13-28 (.317)
Miami Marlins: 13-23 (.361)
Milwaukee Brewers: 15-24 (.385)
Cincinnati Reds: 13-20 (.394)
Colorado Rockies: 14-20 (.412)
Note: The 34-30 San Francisco Giants rank sixth-worst in MLB in record when coming off a loss at 12-17 (.414).
THESE DOGS LIKE TO BITE
At the current moment, only four teams in Major League Baseball are turning a profit for bettors when posted in the underdog role. Those teams include:
San Francisco Giants: 18-9 (.667)
Minnesota Twins: 29-22 (.569)
Kansas City Royals: 14-11 (.560)
Houston Astros: 20-16 (.556)
A GOOD NIGHT’S REST
Which teams excel or falter the most when given exactly one day of rest?
San Francisco Giants: 6-1 (.857)
San Diego Padres: 4-1 (.800)
Washington Nationals: 6-2 (.750)
Detroit Tigers: 5-2 (.714)
Toronto Blue Jays: 5-2 (.714)
Minnesota Twins: 2-7 (.222)
Baltimore Orioles: 2-5 (.286)
Milwaukee Brewers: 2-4 (.333)
Tampa Bay Rays: 2-4 (.333)
Colorado Rockies: 3-6 (.333)
All stats as of Monday, June 15.
After dumping an exorbitant amount of both money and resources this past offseason in an effort to upgrade their roster for a playoff push in 2015, it came as little surprise on Monday to learn that the struggling 32-33 San Diego Padres had handed manager Bud Black his walking papers.
Black, who was with the club since 2007, was on thin ice after last year’s 77-85 campaign and clearly the new management team wasn’t about to stick with a guy who was underachieving so significantly with a revamped roster that hit the board at 20/1 to win the World Series on Opening Day.
The big question now for the Padres is at what point does this team definitively answer the age-old question: Are we buyers or sellers? The MLB trade deadline is just over a month away and it’s hard to believe that San Diego’s front office will want to raise the white flag after such a headline-grabbing offseason.
The upside here is that the Padres are just six games out of first place in the National League West, so two good weeks of baseball could have this team right back in the hunt. The downside is that the two clubs ahead of San Diego - Los Angeles and San Francisco - remain steady and consistent, exactly as both were intended to be back in late March.
MOVERS & SHAKERS
Let’s take an in-depth look at the 10 teams who have experienced the biggest swings in World Series price at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook since May 18:
Heating up
Texas Rangers (500/1 to 30/1): Considered by many to contend with the upstart Houston Astros for last place in the American League West, the Rangers have stunned baseball insiders and fans alike through the first 63 games of the season by taking advantage of a surprisingly weak division to reside 2.5 games out of first place.
The Rangers won 13 of 17 contests beginning May 20 at Boston thanks, in large part, to the awakening of Prince Fielder, who is currently hitting an astounding .343 while leading the club in home runs, RBIs, on base percentage and hits. As of the current moment, the only question for this squad is what to do at third base once Adrian Beltre is ready to return, as highly-touted prospect Joey Gallo is mashing at a .300 clip with four jacks through his first 11 big league games.
Pittsburgh Pirates (30/1 to 12/1): It was only a matter of time before former MVP Andrew McCutchen and company went streaking, as the Pirates currently boast a staggering plus-45 run differential, good for fourth in Major League Baseball.
This squad will have its hands full trying to knock off the white-hot St. Louis Cardinals (six games back despite a 35-27 record), but the Pittsburgh rotation currently owns a collective ERA of just 2.65 (second in MLB) thanks to Cy Young candidate Gerrit Cole (10-2, 1.71 ERA). Take note that 10 of the Pirates’ next 13 games come against the likes of the White Sox, Reds and Braves, who are currently a combined 14 games under .500.
San Francisco Giants (25/1 to 12/1): The defending champs scratched back into contention following a scorching month of May in which the team posted a 21-9 record with an astounding eight shutouts and a dramatic climb from 29th in MLB in runs scored to 16th. But the good times have come to an abrupt halt thanks to an eight-game home losing streak, shaky starting pitching and an untimely wrist injury to right fielder Hunter Pence.
Recently it was noted that San Francisco General Manger Brian Sabean was in Chicago over the weekend scouting Reds soon-to-be free agent pitchers Johnny Cueto and Mike Leake, so a possible “We’re in it to win it” trade could be on the horizon. Still, it’s somewhat hard to envision this team making a deep postseason run with a rotation that features Tim Hudson, Ryan Vogelsong, Chris Heston and Tim Lincecum.
Tampa Bay Rays (40/1 to 20/1): Like every year at this time, nobody gave the Rays a puncher’s chance at making any noise in 2015, yet the team sits tied for the lead in the AL East on June 15 (35-29) with a run differential of plus-14.
Tampa Bay has won nine of its last 12 outings and has an emerging star in pitcher Chris Archer (7-4, 2.00 ERA), who has led the team’s rotation to a lights out ERA of 3.29 (fourth in MLB). Bettors should be weary of the streaking Blue Jays (winners of 11 straight), but we’ve seen that movie before and it doesn’t end well for the good folks of Toronto.
Cleveland Indians (40/1 to 30/1): Be very, very careful about how you approach the Indians, as the club is currently trapped in “front office purgatory,” which is a blunt way of saying they aren’t sure whether they will be buyers or sellers come the late July trade deadline.
Predicted by many to contend for the pennant, the left side of Cleveland’s infield has been a disaster (also as predicted by many) and the starting rotation has been slow out of the gates. But if Kluber, Carrasco & Co. can catch fire and the defense can hold down the fort in a more respectable fashion (SS prodigy Francisco Lindor was just called up), this team may be able to fight its way back into contention, as the Indians are just 6.5 games out of first place at the moment despite a 29-33 record.
Cooling down
Seattle Mariners (20/1 to 50/1): The good news for Mariners fans is that despite a horrific start to what was supposed to be a championship-contending season, Seattle is just 7.5 games out of first in the AL West thanks to an Astros team that has gone 2-8 over its last 10 games.
The bad news - and there’s plenty - is that the bullpen is a mess (3.65 ERA, 19th in MLB), the team is a shockingly bad minus-45 in run differential (fifth-worst in MLB) and the club has been shutout in three of its last four outings. The key note to monitor here is the minus-45 run differential, which based on Pythagorean win/loss expectations has the Mariners as a 25-win team at the moment instead of their current record of 28-35, meaning this organization is likely to get worse before it gets better.
Miami Marlins (60/1 to 100/1): Help is on the way in the form of phenom pitcher Jose Fernandez, but it may be too little too late for a Marlins team that is seven games out of first, has already fired one manager this season and is minus-22 in run differential. A fire sale is likely on the horizon if the team continues to feature 34-year-old Dan Haren and his 3.22 ERA as its ace pitcher.
Boston Red Sox (30/1 to 50/1): One good week is all it would take for the Red Sox to climb back into contention in the AL East (eight games back), but even that looks to be too much for a floundering organization led by David Ortiz’s .229 batting average and high-priced free agent acquisition Pablo Sandoval’s unacceptable .389 slugging percentage.
The Red Sox are getting torched in every way imaginable, which has been highlighted by an AL-worst minus-60 run differential. Don’t be surprised if the Red Sox become marquee sellers at the trade deadline.
Cincinnati Reds (100/1 to 300/1): The Reds are 13 games out in the toughest division in baseball and currently boast just one player with a .300 batting average in second baseman Brandon Phillips (.302).
Ranking 16th or worse in MLB in scoring, starting pitching ERA and bullpen ERA provides little hope that this club will turn things around before the July trade deadline, which means that pitchers Cueto and Leake could be on their way out of town in a hurry.
Detroit Tigers (9/1 to 14/1): The Tigers have ripped off five wins over their last seven games after having dropped 11 of 13, so a three-game deficit between them and AL Central-leading Kansas City isn’t exactly a doomsday scenario.
Former Cy Young winner Justin Verlander went five strong innings in his season debut on June 13, but the Tigers desperately need a left-handed bat in the lineup to provide some pop until the switch-hitting Victor Martinez (knee) returns from his rehab assignment.
RESILIENCY
When it comes to bouncing back after a loss, here are the best and the worst Major League Baseball has to offer:
St. Louis Cardinals: 14-7 (.667)
Chicago Cubs: 18-9 (.667)
Los Angeles Dodgers: 17-9 (.654)
Cleveland Indians: 19-13 (.594)
Texas Rangers: 17-12 (.586)
Philadelphia Phillies: 13-28 (.317)
Miami Marlins: 13-23 (.361)
Milwaukee Brewers: 15-24 (.385)
Cincinnati Reds: 13-20 (.394)
Colorado Rockies: 14-20 (.412)
Note: The 34-30 San Francisco Giants rank sixth-worst in MLB in record when coming off a loss at 12-17 (.414).
THESE DOGS LIKE TO BITE
At the current moment, only four teams in Major League Baseball are turning a profit for bettors when posted in the underdog role. Those teams include:
San Francisco Giants: 18-9 (.667)
Minnesota Twins: 29-22 (.569)
Kansas City Royals: 14-11 (.560)
Houston Astros: 20-16 (.556)
A GOOD NIGHT’S REST
Which teams excel or falter the most when given exactly one day of rest?
San Francisco Giants: 6-1 (.857)
San Diego Padres: 4-1 (.800)
Washington Nationals: 6-2 (.750)
Detroit Tigers: 5-2 (.714)
Toronto Blue Jays: 5-2 (.714)
Minnesota Twins: 2-7 (.222)
Baltimore Orioles: 2-5 (.286)
Milwaukee Brewers: 2-4 (.333)
Tampa Bay Rays: 2-4 (.333)
Colorado Rockies: 3-6 (.333)
All stats as of Monday, June 15.
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