At the Gate - Friday
October 30, 2015
It is Breeders’ Cup Friday, with four championship races on tap highlighted by the $2 million Breeders’ Cup Distaff (G1).
The race is missing defending champion Untapable, who spiked a fever this week, and the leader of the division Beholder, who is taking on the boys tomorrow in the $5 million Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1).
You would think that might affect the field for the Distaff, but the full field of 14 will feature nine Grade 1 winners and it is a great betting race.
Wedding Toast is the 4-1 morning line favorite and comes into the race off back-to-back Grade 1 wins, taking the Ogden Phihpps and Beldame Invitational.
However, handicappers are going to have a hard time separating her with Got Lucky, Sheer Drama and I’m a Chatterbox, who each figure to take some betting action.
As you can see below, I am looking for a generous price with Curalina, who may end up getting overlooked in the betting.
The Breeders’ Cup action starts at 3:30 ET with the $1 million Juvenile Turf (G1). Here are some betting trend notes I made this week on today’s four Breeders’ Cup races:
Juvenile Turf Trends
Favorites have won just one of the eight running of this race...Euro invaders have won five with trainers John Gosden and Aidan O'Brien both winning in back to back years...The Group 1 Dubai Dewhurst Stakes produced the 2012 and 2013 winners...Pounced ($6.80) in 2009 is the only short priced winner of this race, and he was the most lightly raced with just three starts...The top exacta was in 2011 with Wrote (11-1) over Excaper (33-1) returning $964.00...Jockey Frankie Dettori has won this race three times, Ryan Moore twice...Hootenanny won last year's edition off the longest break, 68 days...
Dirt Mile Trends
Favorites have won just one of the eight editions of the Dirt Mile...The average win payoff is $32.30 and the exacta is $352.00...The last three winners have taken the field gate to wire, all at Santa Anita...Three-year-olds have won this race twice, Goldencents in 2013 the most recent...All of the winners of the Dirt Mile exited either a Grade 1 or Grade 2 race in their final prep...The two Churchill Downs editions were one turn events and they were both won by runners coming from off the pace...Two-time winner Goldencents used the Santa Anita Sprint Handicap (G1) as his final prep both years...2012 winner Tapizar used the Kelso (G2)...Dakota Phone was the biggest price, paying $77.40 in 2010 over the Churchill Downs main track…
Juvenile Fillies Turf Trends
Favorites have only won one of the seven runnings of this race, Lady Eli winning last year ($6.80)...U.S. based fillies have won five of the seven races...The Ms. Grillo at Belmont Park has produced three winners...The Natalma at Woodbine has produced two winners...Trainer Chad Brown has won this race twice and also has a pair of runner up finishes...Maram (11-1) and Heart Shaped (10-1) produced the largest exacta in 2008, paying $350.00...The average super for this race is over $11K...Four of the winner paid between $21.60 and $29.20...No winner has taken the field gate to wire...
Distaff Trends
Favorites have won 13 of the previous 31 editions of the Distaff...Favorites have won three of the last four...Three-year-olds have won three of last four...Royal Delta is the lone wire to wire winner going back 11 years...The average win payoff is $18.69...The top exacta was in 2005, Pleasant Home (30-1) over Society Selection (11-1) paid $692.00...The Beldame has produced five of the last nine winners...The Lady's Secret/Zenyatta has produced three in that time...Trainer Bill Mott has won the Distaff five times...Seven of the last eight Distaff winners came into the race with at least one Grade 1 win...Eight of the last nine Distaff winners came into the race with at least two triple digit Beyer Speed Figures...
Here is today’s opening race from Belmont Park to get the day off to a good start:
BEL Race 1 Clm $14,000N3L (12:45 ET)
9 Queen of the Spa 7-2
2 Midnight Champagne 5-1
10 Fiery Cat 3-1
5 Resolute Babe 10-1
Analysis: Queen of the Spa dueled for the early lead and weakened to finish fourth last out in the slop in a race washed off the turf. The runner up Saratoga Karaoke came back to beat $25,000 non-winners of three in her next outing on Oct. 23. The Gullo trainee was a good second two back at the Spa against $20,000 non-winners of three. She owns a solid pace profile throughout and she looks capable of moving forward back on a fast main track.
Midnight Champagne pressed the early pace toward the outside and weakened to finish fifth last out against straight three-year-old fillies for a $25,000 tag over a wet track here. She was making her first start off the claim by the Miceli barn that took her for $20,000. She beat $50,000 starter allowance foes back in April for her first victory against winners. She looks well spotted and gets a jock upgrade.
Wagering
WIN: #9 to win at 5-2 or better.
EX: 2,9 / 2,5,9,10
TRI: 2,9 / 2,5,9,10 / 2,4,5,9,10
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Belmont Park:
BEL Race 8 The Turnback the Alarm Hcp G3 (5:08 ET)
5 Call Pat 4-1
3 Delightful Joy 5-2
9 America 3-1
2 La Madrina 8-1
Analysis: Call Pat exits the Beldame (G1) where she checked in fourth, beaten 11 lengths for the top spot behind a couple of major players for the Breeders' Cup Distaff (G1) tomorrow. Two back at Ellis Park this gal won the Groupie Doll (G3) going a mile earning a career top speed fig. She fits better in this spot for the high % Cox barn.
Delightful Joy made a good late rally while wide to get up and win the Monmouth Oaks (G3) last out earning a career top speed fig in the effort. She beat Alw-1 foes two back off a similar break as she comes back here off a two-month break here. There is not a ton of pace in here but this gal looks headed in the right direction for the Chad Brown barn.
Wagering
WIN: #5 to win at 3-1 or better
EX: 3,5 / 2,3,5,9
TRI: 3,5 / 2,3,5,9 / 2,3,5,6,9
Today's Featured Race of the Day from Keeneland:
KEE Race 9 The Breeders' Cup Distaff G1 (5:35 ET)
8 Curalina 12-1
7 Wedding Toast 4-1
1 I'm a Chatterbox 8-1
12 Got Lucky 6-1
Analysis: Curalina exits the Beldame which has been a key race for the Distaff. The filly tracked the early pace and could not get by Wedding Toast in the stretch in a runner up finish, the winner taking advantage of a racing strip that was kind to speed that day. She is a two-time Grade 1 winner, taking the Acorn back in June at a mile at Belmont Park and taking the Coaching Club American Oaks thanks to a DQ of I'm a Chatterbox in deep stretch. She is proven at nine furlongs and looks to still perhaps have some upside for the Todd Pletcher barn that won this racer with Ashado in 2004. Joel Rosario picks up the call as John Velazquez opted to ride Untapable who ended up scratching out of this race with a fever. The filly has three good works over the surface and is going to be a fair price in this spot.
Wedding Toast exits the Beldame where she went gate to wire to win by 2 3/4 lengths. While the effort may have been aided slightly from a speed friendly surface, she was making her first start off a 3 1/2 month break. She took the field gate to wire two back to win the Ogden Phipps (G1) and is the one runner in this field with a triple digit Beyer and she has earned them in back to back starts. There is plenty of speed in here but she showed three back in her Ruffian (G2) win that she does not need the lead.
I'm a Chatterbox stalked the early pace and finished strongly to win the Cotillion (G1) last out at Philly, the race last year's winner Untapable used as a final prep. She swept the three stakes at Fair Grounds earlier this year and then ran a decent third in the Kentucky Oaks (G1), her lone finish out of the exacta. She is consistent and should get a good tracking trip behind the speed. Her 8-1 morning line looks generous.
Wagering
WIN: #8 to win at 8-1 or better.
EX: 7,8 / 1,7,8,12
TRI: 7,8 / 1,7,8,12 / 1,7,8,12,14
Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Belmont Park
R1: #5 Resolute Babe 10-1
R2: #4 Media Kid 12-1
R2: #3 Neoclassic 8-1
R3: #2 Real Estate Rich 10-1
R4: #7 Macagone 10-1
R6: #6 Manofire 12-1
R8: #2 La Madrina 8-1
R9: #2 Alabama Bound 10-1
R9: #6 Out of Nowhere 12-1
Good luck today!
October 30, 2015
It is Breeders’ Cup Friday, with four championship races on tap highlighted by the $2 million Breeders’ Cup Distaff (G1).
The race is missing defending champion Untapable, who spiked a fever this week, and the leader of the division Beholder, who is taking on the boys tomorrow in the $5 million Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1).
You would think that might affect the field for the Distaff, but the full field of 14 will feature nine Grade 1 winners and it is a great betting race.
Wedding Toast is the 4-1 morning line favorite and comes into the race off back-to-back Grade 1 wins, taking the Ogden Phihpps and Beldame Invitational.
However, handicappers are going to have a hard time separating her with Got Lucky, Sheer Drama and I’m a Chatterbox, who each figure to take some betting action.
As you can see below, I am looking for a generous price with Curalina, who may end up getting overlooked in the betting.
The Breeders’ Cup action starts at 3:30 ET with the $1 million Juvenile Turf (G1). Here are some betting trend notes I made this week on today’s four Breeders’ Cup races:
Juvenile Turf Trends
Favorites have won just one of the eight running of this race...Euro invaders have won five with trainers John Gosden and Aidan O'Brien both winning in back to back years...The Group 1 Dubai Dewhurst Stakes produced the 2012 and 2013 winners...Pounced ($6.80) in 2009 is the only short priced winner of this race, and he was the most lightly raced with just three starts...The top exacta was in 2011 with Wrote (11-1) over Excaper (33-1) returning $964.00...Jockey Frankie Dettori has won this race three times, Ryan Moore twice...Hootenanny won last year's edition off the longest break, 68 days...
Dirt Mile Trends
Favorites have won just one of the eight editions of the Dirt Mile...The average win payoff is $32.30 and the exacta is $352.00...The last three winners have taken the field gate to wire, all at Santa Anita...Three-year-olds have won this race twice, Goldencents in 2013 the most recent...All of the winners of the Dirt Mile exited either a Grade 1 or Grade 2 race in their final prep...The two Churchill Downs editions were one turn events and they were both won by runners coming from off the pace...Two-time winner Goldencents used the Santa Anita Sprint Handicap (G1) as his final prep both years...2012 winner Tapizar used the Kelso (G2)...Dakota Phone was the biggest price, paying $77.40 in 2010 over the Churchill Downs main track…
Juvenile Fillies Turf Trends
Favorites have only won one of the seven runnings of this race, Lady Eli winning last year ($6.80)...U.S. based fillies have won five of the seven races...The Ms. Grillo at Belmont Park has produced three winners...The Natalma at Woodbine has produced two winners...Trainer Chad Brown has won this race twice and also has a pair of runner up finishes...Maram (11-1) and Heart Shaped (10-1) produced the largest exacta in 2008, paying $350.00...The average super for this race is over $11K...Four of the winner paid between $21.60 and $29.20...No winner has taken the field gate to wire...
Distaff Trends
Favorites have won 13 of the previous 31 editions of the Distaff...Favorites have won three of the last four...Three-year-olds have won three of last four...Royal Delta is the lone wire to wire winner going back 11 years...The average win payoff is $18.69...The top exacta was in 2005, Pleasant Home (30-1) over Society Selection (11-1) paid $692.00...The Beldame has produced five of the last nine winners...The Lady's Secret/Zenyatta has produced three in that time...Trainer Bill Mott has won the Distaff five times...Seven of the last eight Distaff winners came into the race with at least one Grade 1 win...Eight of the last nine Distaff winners came into the race with at least two triple digit Beyer Speed Figures...
Here is today’s opening race from Belmont Park to get the day off to a good start:
BEL Race 1 Clm $14,000N3L (12:45 ET)
9 Queen of the Spa 7-2
2 Midnight Champagne 5-1
10 Fiery Cat 3-1
5 Resolute Babe 10-1
Analysis: Queen of the Spa dueled for the early lead and weakened to finish fourth last out in the slop in a race washed off the turf. The runner up Saratoga Karaoke came back to beat $25,000 non-winners of three in her next outing on Oct. 23. The Gullo trainee was a good second two back at the Spa against $20,000 non-winners of three. She owns a solid pace profile throughout and she looks capable of moving forward back on a fast main track.
Midnight Champagne pressed the early pace toward the outside and weakened to finish fifth last out against straight three-year-old fillies for a $25,000 tag over a wet track here. She was making her first start off the claim by the Miceli barn that took her for $20,000. She beat $50,000 starter allowance foes back in April for her first victory against winners. She looks well spotted and gets a jock upgrade.
Wagering
WIN: #9 to win at 5-2 or better.
EX: 2,9 / 2,5,9,10
TRI: 2,9 / 2,5,9,10 / 2,4,5,9,10
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Belmont Park:
BEL Race 8 The Turnback the Alarm Hcp G3 (5:08 ET)
5 Call Pat 4-1
3 Delightful Joy 5-2
9 America 3-1
2 La Madrina 8-1
Analysis: Call Pat exits the Beldame (G1) where she checked in fourth, beaten 11 lengths for the top spot behind a couple of major players for the Breeders' Cup Distaff (G1) tomorrow. Two back at Ellis Park this gal won the Groupie Doll (G3) going a mile earning a career top speed fig. She fits better in this spot for the high % Cox barn.
Delightful Joy made a good late rally while wide to get up and win the Monmouth Oaks (G3) last out earning a career top speed fig in the effort. She beat Alw-1 foes two back off a similar break as she comes back here off a two-month break here. There is not a ton of pace in here but this gal looks headed in the right direction for the Chad Brown barn.
Wagering
WIN: #5 to win at 3-1 or better
EX: 3,5 / 2,3,5,9
TRI: 3,5 / 2,3,5,9 / 2,3,5,6,9
Today's Featured Race of the Day from Keeneland:
KEE Race 9 The Breeders' Cup Distaff G1 (5:35 ET)
8 Curalina 12-1
7 Wedding Toast 4-1
1 I'm a Chatterbox 8-1
12 Got Lucky 6-1
Analysis: Curalina exits the Beldame which has been a key race for the Distaff. The filly tracked the early pace and could not get by Wedding Toast in the stretch in a runner up finish, the winner taking advantage of a racing strip that was kind to speed that day. She is a two-time Grade 1 winner, taking the Acorn back in June at a mile at Belmont Park and taking the Coaching Club American Oaks thanks to a DQ of I'm a Chatterbox in deep stretch. She is proven at nine furlongs and looks to still perhaps have some upside for the Todd Pletcher barn that won this racer with Ashado in 2004. Joel Rosario picks up the call as John Velazquez opted to ride Untapable who ended up scratching out of this race with a fever. The filly has three good works over the surface and is going to be a fair price in this spot.
Wedding Toast exits the Beldame where she went gate to wire to win by 2 3/4 lengths. While the effort may have been aided slightly from a speed friendly surface, she was making her first start off a 3 1/2 month break. She took the field gate to wire two back to win the Ogden Phipps (G1) and is the one runner in this field with a triple digit Beyer and she has earned them in back to back starts. There is plenty of speed in here but she showed three back in her Ruffian (G2) win that she does not need the lead.
I'm a Chatterbox stalked the early pace and finished strongly to win the Cotillion (G1) last out at Philly, the race last year's winner Untapable used as a final prep. She swept the three stakes at Fair Grounds earlier this year and then ran a decent third in the Kentucky Oaks (G1), her lone finish out of the exacta. She is consistent and should get a good tracking trip behind the speed. Her 8-1 morning line looks generous.
Wagering
WIN: #8 to win at 8-1 or better.
EX: 7,8 / 1,7,8,12
TRI: 7,8 / 1,7,8,12 / 1,7,8,12,14
Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Belmont Park
R1: #5 Resolute Babe 10-1
R2: #4 Media Kid 12-1
R2: #3 Neoclassic 8-1
R3: #2 Real Estate Rich 10-1
R4: #7 Macagone 10-1
R6: #6 Manofire 12-1
R8: #2 La Madrina 8-1
R9: #2 Alabama Bound 10-1
R9: #6 Out of Nowhere 12-1
Good luck today!
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